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60
50
40
30
20
10
0
74
79
84
89
94
99
04
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
38.0
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
f(x)
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
f(x)
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
F(x)
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
f(x)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
f(x)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
3 3 3 3 4 4 4
LN3; C.A.=0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
2 2 3 3 4 4
LN2; C.A.=-0,8
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
3 3 3 3 4 4 4
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
1974 28.8 49.0 2.97
1975 33.7 47.3 2.76
1976 26.4 43.2 2.23
1977 19.7 42.7 2.17
1978 23.3 41.5 2.01
1979 49.0 40.0 1.82
1980 22.4 39.0 1.69
1981 30.0 36.9 1.42
1982 19.8 36.4 1.36
1983 25.5 33.7 1.01
1984 22.6 33.0 0.92
1985 19.2 32.1 0.80
1986 21.5 30.1 0.55
1987 23.0 30.1 0.55
1988 24.0 30.0 0.53
1989 21.3 29.8 0.51
1990 22.4 28.8 0.38
1991 26.1 28.8 0.38
1992 22.4 28.0 0.28
1993 28.0 27.5 0.21
1994 26.0 26.4 0.07
1995 25.1 26.1 0.03
1996 33.0 26.0 0.02
1997 28.8 25.5 (0.04)
1998 41.5 25.1 (0.09)
1999 43.2 24.2 (0.21)
2000 36.4 24.0 (0.24)
2001 30.1 23.3 (0.33)
2002 24.2 23.0 (0.36)
2003 27.5 22.6 (0.42)
2004 29.8 22.4 (0.44)
2005 40.0 22.4 (0.44)
2006 42.7 22.4 (0.44)
2007 32.1 21.5 (0.56)
2008 39.0 21.3 (0.58)
2009 47.3 19.8 (0.78)
2010 36.9 19.7 (0.78)
2011 30.1 19.2 (0.85)
n = número de datos 38
yn medio = 0.5424
Sn = 1.1363
parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 7.06
u = x-yn*a= 25.72
VALORES GUMBEL
Media reducida Yn
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600
n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x) x (media) 29.5
1974 28.8 49.0 3.772E-03 9.830E-01 s2 (varianza) 64.4
1975 33.7 47.3 5.281E-03 9.753E-01 a 13.548
1976 26.4 43.2 1.109E-02 9.430E-01 b 2.18
1977 19.7 42.7 1.205E-02 9.372E-01
1978 23.3 41.5 1.461E-02 9.212E-01
1979 49.0 40.0 1.832E-02 8.966E-01
1980 22.4 39.0 2.109E-02 8.769E-01
1981 30.0 36.9 2.758E-02 8.259E-01
1982 19.8 36.4 2.922E-02 8.118E-01
1983 25.5 33.7 3.832E-02 7.206E-01
1984 22.6 33.0 4.059E-02 6.929E-01
1985 19.2 32.1 4.334E-02 6.552E-01
1986 21.5 30.1 4.837E-02 5.631E-01
1987 23.0 30.1 4.837E-02 5.631E-01
1988 24.0 30.0 4.857E-02 5.583E-01
1989 21.3 29.8 4.895E-02 5.485E-01
1990 22.4 28.8 5.045E-02 4.988E-01
1991 26.1 28.8 5.045E-02 4.988E-01
1992 22.4 28.0 5.113E-02 4.581E-01
1993 28.0 27.5 5.129E-02 4.325E-01
1994 26.0 26.4 5.089E-02 3.762E-01
1995 25.1 26.1 5.059E-02 3.610E-01
1996 33.0 26.0 5.047E-02 3.559E-01
1997 28.8 25.5 4.975E-02 3.309E-01
1998 41.5 25.1 4.901E-02 3.111E-01
1999 43.2 24.2 4.683E-02 2.679E-01
2000 36.4 24.0 4.625E-02 2.586E-01
2001 30.1 23.3 4.397E-02 2.270E-01
2002 24.2 23.0 4.289E-02 2.140E-01
2003 27.5 22.6 4.134E-02 1.971E-01
2004 29.8 22.4 4.053E-02 1.890E-01
2005 40.0 22.4 4.053E-02 1.890E-01
2006 42.7 22.4 4.053E-02 1.890E-01
2007 32.1 21.5 3.660E-02 1.542E-01
2008 39.0 21.3 3.568E-02 1.470E-01 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
2009 47.3 19.8 2.829E-02 9.832E-02
2010 36.9 19.7 2.809E-02 9.719E-02 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
2011 30.1 19.2 2.540E-02 8.275E-02
--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)
x = 51.3508425
Tr = 100
Tr = 1.01
CUADRO Nº 3.4 - AJUSTE DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS
Si D<d, se acepta la
hipótesis nula.
La prueba requiere que el valor Dn calculado con la expresión anterior sea menor que
el valor tabulado da para un nivel de significancia (o nivel de probabilidad) requerido. El valor crítico d
de la prueba se obtiene de la tabla mostrada, en función del nivel de significancia y el tamaño de la muestra n.