China — which was looking to inject some positivity into U.S.

-Chinese relations — has

hoped that Afghanistan could be an area of cooperation. In fact, the U.S. and China
have maintained an official channel of consultation on Afghanistan in the past years. In
addition, Beijing believed it could use “issues of shared concern”, including Afghanistan
to neutralize America’s “hostile” policy toward China through “issue linkage” — in other
words, it could offer cooperation in exchange for U.S. concessions in other areas.
According to Chinese analysts I spoke with in Track II meetings in the past several
months, China prepared for potential American “asks” at the very beginning of the Biden
administration, including on North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, and climate change.
Chinese interlocutors were very clear that Beijing was prepared to work with
Washington if the new administration was willing to be more accommodating of China’s
policies in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Tibet. However, the potential for
cooperation dimmed significantly after the contentious bilateral meeting in March in
Alaska between National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony
Blinken, and Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Nevertheless, Beijing still hopes that Washington will turn to China for assistance (and
probably will eagerly respond if it does).

Beijing’s Skepticism and Cynicism: What Is America Withdrawing?

China’s narrative about the U.S. withdrawal, one striking feature is a consistent and

persistent skepticism of the U.S. withdrawal. The essential question remains: What
precisely is the U.S. withdrawing from Afghanistan? From China’s perspective, even if
the U.S. withdraws its formal military forces, it will not likely withdraw its security
presence or, more importantly, its influence as represented by private security forces,
defense contractors, and local partners. Currently, there are 2,500 American troops in
Afghanistan — 3,300 if special forces are also included. Such a small number of troops
is not in a position to play a determining military role on the battlefield. Instead, the U.S.
presence projects a political and symbolic message that the U.S. remains involved and
committed. Therefore, the withdrawal of troops is only symbolic as well.