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\ hs\ N
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
11 September 1958

DAILY BRIEF-

ts
in I
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
\r\
Zaiwan gtrait s_ituation:_ Peiping has issued another
"serious warning" tothe United States, this time regard- I

ing an a lle ge d air v1‘bl at’ion of it s te rri‘to ry. Th e Foreign

‘ '

Ministry statement did not indicate that the regime intends

to take immediate counteraction but states that "the Chi-
nese people can never be intimidated by a show of force."
(Page 1)

USSR: The aircraft sighted on a Moscow factory air-

field on2'7 August appears to be a modified delta-wing four-
jet bomber. Performance data for this prototype has not
yet been determined, but its design suggests that it may
01/ be capable of supersonic flight. I

I(Page 4) (Photo)
I

II. ASIA- AFRICA

UAR—Irag;I§ Nasir.'s. recent comments on Communist

influence in Iraq are reminiscent of those made prior to
taking Syria into the UAR and; may presage a similar ef-
r‘d1"ng Ir aq.
fort regal’ Iposs'1b lyin-
tended for American consumption, he has called Iraqi poli-
I

C‘/x\ ticians self-seeking and naive about Communists. He does,

however, approve of strongly pro-UAR Deputy Prime Min-
ister Arif as the only Iraqi who knows how to deal with
them. I I
(Page 5)

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Israel-Egypt; The Israeli Foreign Ministry has told the

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American Embassy
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that there has been a steady increase in
Egyptian reconnaissance and sabotage by both regular forces
-4222222142?

and terrorists in Israel since the Iraqi coupe Israel may be

OK building a case to support its requests for arms aid, In the
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past such a recitation has often served as justification for />/>;i/224%

Israeli retaliatory action.

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‘(Page 6) 15 1' vi?

Morocco: A reshuffle of the government seems probable ~

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in the near future. Likely head for the new regime would be 1?
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38-year-old Abderrahim Bouabid, dynamic vice premier and

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minister of economy‘, Such a government would probably be
somewhat more stable than the present moderate Balafrej
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/ cabinet, but would adopt a firmer position in its ne otiations

withth e US over b ase r1ght s ( age 7 )
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III. THE WEST ‘

France-Morocco: The French foreign minister on 9 Sep-

tember said that the US accedes to Moroccan demands for
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recognition of the principle of eventual evacuation of American

bases in Morocco, then France's base negotiations on Bizerte, ‘

as well as on its Moroccan bases, would be seriously preju- -7-:;:;/ 7/;

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4% diced. Paris has been seeking to evade decision on this is- "

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sue, probably to avoid provoking a hostile reaction from

9. European settlers in Algeria, but eventually it is likely to I/.;.",/.;Z:6;§

accept the recommendations of its Rabat embassy to evacuate .

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Venezuela: The abortive military coup of 7 September /

and the general strike of 8 September called to demand 5-7'14!-£5

punishment of the coup leaders have produced a tense po-

litical situation. Both military an"d civilian groups are said

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to be dissatisfied with the junta's handling ogthe crisis, and //

irresponsible elements of either could provoke a long-pend-
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ing showdown. The junta's ability to mediate between these /

y hostile forces appears to be declining
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Guatemala; A group of army officers and civilians,'c'on-

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cerned over President Ydigoras' failure to curb growing left-

ist influence, is considering plans to seize the government
du ring Indepen d.ence D ay c el e b r at’ions on, 1'4» Sep te m b er. D‘1S-
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satisfaction with the President has grown as the result of 7/

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his failure to deal effectivel with the country's serious do- so
mestic problems. 10)
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Preparations for the long-planned coup attempt

Haiti:
against Haitian President Duvalier are nearing completion,
and an invasion may be launched as early; as 15 September. 1
There is strong evidence that the Dominican Republic is sup- '/

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(Z__porting the plan, and revolutionary groups are believed
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Mexico. (Page 11)

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Approved for Relea S61 2020/01/23 CO3156 630

 ._ _ - _ __
_ __

Approved f_0r Release: 2020/01/23

_ C03156630

I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC

Taiwan Strait Situation

Communist China continues to advertise its readiness

and capability to maintain pressure on the offshore islands.
Its ambassador to Moscow, Liu Hsiao, recently returned
there from Peiping and told the Ceylonese ambassador that
Communist China has decided to put the Nationalist forces
on Kinmen and the Matsus "out of action" because of the
very considerable build-up of Nationalist forces,which might
attempt to invade the mainland. Replying to a question about
a possible war between the US and Communist China, Liu
said that war depended on the US attitude toward Chinese
Communist attacks on the islands and that if war breaks
out "we are fully prepared for it and we are confident that
we shall win." Other Chinese Communist officials have
made similar remarks to Asian diplomats stressin Pei-
ping's defensive posture and confidence.

Ambassador Drumright in Taipei believes the Chinese

Communists do not want an all-out war, and that they hope
by threats to force the US and its allies into compromises.
He also believes there is a good chance that the USSR will
seek to air the Taiwan issue in an international forum, prob-
UN General Assembly, if Moscow estimates such
ably the a
move would be supported by Afro-Asian countries.
‘

The Soviet press during the past few days has avoided
reporting incidents in the strait area. Moscow's Home
Service radio commentary on 9 September belittled the US
agreement to renew talks with the Chinese Communists. It
said it was apparent, in the light of the continued US military
build-up in the area, joint maneuvers with the Chinese Na-
tionalists, and statements by American officials, that the US
Government is preparing to adopt an attitude during the talks
which cannot be acceptable to the Chinese People's Republic.
’
Peiping radio on 10 September told domestic listeners
that thousands of militiamen in the Amoy area are mobilized

11 Sept 58 -

(‘FNTPAI INTFIIIGFNCF RIIIIFTIN Page 1

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630
 Approved for BeLe_a’§e:__2020/01/23 C03156630

to help regular army troops d.ig coastal defense trenches as

a precaution against an invasion of the mainlandg Local
fishermen and boatmen were described. as engaged in trans-
port work to support the Fukien front“ The broadcast stressed
the defensive nature of the activity. \ \

Chinese Communist auxiliary vessels have been shuttling

constantly between the Choushan Islands, Wenchow, and the
Santu Bay area. These movements suggest a continuing
logistics build-up to the north of the strait. There is some
evidencel lthat motor torpedo
boats may be moving northward from the Yulin naval base on
Hainan Island. T
Q 1

A Nationalist photo reconnaissance mission flown on 8

September has confirmed. the presence of MIG-type aircraft
V

(19 on that day) on Chingyang airfield.

\the field was operational.
\ \

Chingyang is the sixth airfield known to be operational in the

strait area. Huian is the only major coastal field not con-
firmed as occupied. \ l

The Chinese Nationalist air force has been directed to

suspend. photo reconnaissancet missions over the China
mainland. for the time being to avoid provocations. Chief
of Staff Wang Shu-ming continues to insist, however, that
air strikes against the Communist artillery firing on Kinmen
will be made if necessary.
‘

The Chinese Nationalists plan to adopt new tactics in the

next convoy which is expected to sail to Kinmen on 12 September
Three instead of two medium landin shi s LSM) will be used,
-'F6P—S-EGRE-T
11 Sept 58 T

r|=r\|-rpm n\rr|=|||n.r=|\|r|= RIIIIFTIN Page 2

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 Approved [of Rellegsei 2020/01/23 C03156630

one of which will carry tracked. landing vehicles (LVT).

These amphibious tractors will carry equipment to the
beaches from d.istances beyond artillery range.
"

Free World reactions: President Rhee of South Korea I

has agreed to the recommendation of Lt. Gen. Yu Chae-hung,

who recently returned from a trip to Taiwan, that it would
be inadvisable at this time to make any commitments to Na-
tionalist China regarding military aid or joint action against
the Communists. Yu told Rhee that the Nationalist defense
of the offshore islands is dependent on American aid and
that even greater American support would be needed for a
counterattack against the mainland. Rhee expressed disap-
pointment with Nationalist military weakness. -f

West Germany's acting‘ foreign minister has expressed

support for US policy in the Far East and sees no other solu-
tion than to defend Kinmen, since abandoning the offshore
islands would encourage Communist expansionism. He said
that Chancellor Adenauer fully agrees with the American
presentation of the situation to NATO but hopes that nuclear
weapons will not be employed.
‘
-

There has been little reaction from the French, who

tend to view the situation in the Far East as primarily psycho-
logical warfare.
‘ ‘

11 Sept 58 V

(‘FNTPAI IMTFIIIGFNFF RIIIIFTIN Page 3

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630
 Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630
‘i ‘i

NEW SOVIET BOMBER RECENTLY OBSERVED AT PLANT #23, MOSCOW/ FILI

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630

 Pl lifilfiflfll
Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630

NewgS_oviet '0 "W Observed

Bomber at Aircraft Plant at
Moscow/Fili
0

A large, new bomber was sighted on the fac-

Soviet iet
tory airfield at Moscow/Fili on 27 August. The new air-
craft was observed outside the plant which has been pro-
ducing the BISON heavy jet bombers. There have been in-
dications during the past 12 months that a new aircraft
might be under development at this plant; BISON production
has been erratic and dwindling, and increased activity--in-
eluding night work--was noted in that portion of the plant
which is believed to be the design bureau.
Fromstudy of a long-range photograph of the new air-
craft, it appears to be a modified delta-wing, four-jet
bomb-
er, probably equipped with dual-tandem landing
gear and
outriggers at the wing tips. Landing gear of a similar type
is employed on the BISON; BLOWLAIVIPZ and FLASHLIGHT.

Two very large engines are located at the wing tips and
two more are underslungi on pylons‘. These engines appear
to be conventional turbojets. No evidence of an afterburner
is visible in the photograph, but an afterburner section could
be there. The engines are probably larger than those of the
BADGER and the BISONand.when ;hearid;and observed in op-
eration gave the impression of large mass air flow. The
wing span is variously estimated at from "80 plus" to 96
feet. The fuselage has been estimated by the US air attache
in Moscow to be at least 170 feet in length.

Preliminary analysis of the general configuration of this

aircraft suggests that it was designed for high speed and per-
haps has a supersonic capability. The wings are decidedly
swept back and thin, the fuselage is reported to be extremely
long and thin, and the engines are mounted at points advanta-
geous to high-speed flight. More precise analysis to de-
termine the weight, size, and estimated performance char-
Ticienisnzics of this prototype is being

—S-EGR-E-F

11 Se pt 58. r\|:Ll'l"r\Al n.rr|:|||r:|:L|r‘I: n||ur:'r|n Pa g e 4

Approved for Release: 2020/01/23 C03156630
 Approved for Release‘: §o'2'6761/23 003156630

II. ASIA—AFRICA

Nasir Expresses Concern Over Communistplnfluenjce in Iraq

I

Nasirl
Swas concerned over the
_
"leniency" Iraqi politicians appear
\

to be displaying local Communists. By contrast, he

toward
indicated approval of Deputy Prime Minister Arif, who has
taken a pro-UAR line since the 14 July revolution. Nasir
said that in the Iraqi Government only Arif knows the Commu-
nists and how to deal with them.

Nasir may be genuinely alarmed by signs that various

elements, including Communists, are in no hurry to seek
formal affiliation with the UAR; His reported remarks on
Communist influence, possibly intended for American con-
sumption, are similar to Nasir's references to Syria just be-
fore the Egyptian take-over in Damascus. They may fore-
shadow an effort to "save" Iraq by bringing it into federation
or union with the "UAR.

The basic issue in Iraq at the present time is the coun-

try's relationship with the UAR. Prime Minister Qasim, sup-
ported by "liberal" Arab nationalists and the Communists,
is believed to be opposing union, while Arif and the Baathists
striving for incorporation in the UAR.
(are

——SEGR-l5.'-T—-

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E8)’ Pt??? 151‘ @911, BOYS? E Activity

The Israeli Foreign Ministry claims that since the Iraqi
coup Egyptian regular military forces and fedayeen terrorists
have steadily increased reconnaissance and sabotage operations
in Israel. A ministry official enumerated eight incidents, in-
volving the deaths of three Israelis and one Egyptian, which
he said had. occurred since 14. July. He stated. the situation was
getting out of hand despite Israel's policy up to now of avoiding
publicity on the incidents. Most of the encounters had been
withheld from the press.
\ \

This increased Egyptian activity has been confirme

Both the UAR and Israel apparently have intensified. their

reconnaissance efforts in the expectation that a general Arab-
Israeli conflict will develop out of unsettled conditions in Jor-
dan. On 3 September, the Israeli--Egyptian Mixed Armistice
Commission censured Israel for the border-crossing of two
armored cars on 23 August. The Israelis boycotted the em-
ergency meeting, the commission's first since the 1956 Sinai
campaign.

Israelmay have enumerated its complaints to the American

Embassy to support requests for arms aid. In the past such re-
citals have also been made to prepare a case for possible future
retaliatory action against the UAR. Foreign Minister Meir
again raised the subject of Israel's arms requirements with Am-
bassador Lawson on 9 September. She appealed particularly
for American medium tanks--which she said Israel could ob-
tain from France as surplus if the United States granted its
permission--and for 250 recoilless antitank rifles in addition
to the 100 already offered by the United States. She said that
only by achieving some sort of arms balance could Israel hope
to prevent an eventual Arab attack.
\ \

—1=eP—sEeRE—1=
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Impending Reorganization of theWMoroccan*Governmen"t

A reshuffle of the Moroccan Government seems probable

in the near future, but King Mohamed V, who is reported to
have offered to step aside "if the people wish," is not likely
to abdicate. The King and moderates within the dominant
Istiqlal party, which .'..-has majority representation in the
present Balafrej government, have recently taken steps to
strengthen their positions. Nevertheless, a new govern-
ment may be created by 38-year-old Abderrahim Bouabid,
the dynamic vice premier and minister of national economy,
only representative of the neutralist left wing of Istiqlal now
in the government.

A Bouabid government would probably be more effective,

but it would also be more pan-Arab and more inclined to co-
operate with the Communist bloc than the Balafrej cabinet,
which agreed to exchange diplomatic repre-
itself recently
sentatives with the USSR, moved. toward recognition of Com-
munist China, and sought membership in the Arab League.
A Bouabid regime would probably also take a firmer stand
in negotiations with the US over base rights.

Meanwhile, a concerted campaign is under way to rally

the Moroccan population around the monarchy to offset the
recent growth of pro-republic sentiment.
‘

-—SE€RE"F'

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IIL THE WEST

France Opposes U§F Recognition 0 '

of flfrinciplgof Evacuation
InMo"rocco
0

T
___$___---—-—-

French Foreign Minister Couve de Murville empha-

sized to Ambassador Houghton on 9 September that French-
American relations would be "very bad" if the US acceded
to Moroccan demands to recognize publiclythe principle of
total evacuation of American bases in Moroccoo He said
any such announcement would have "serious repercussions"
on the French~Moroccan base negotiations which have been
under way since March and on the coming French~Tunisian
negotiations on the future of the Bizerte baseo

Morocco's demand for public recognition of the

principle of evacuation has become the principal stumbling
block in French-Moroccan negotiations of a new military
agreement. The French Embassy in Rabat has recommended
that France accede, which it probably will do eventually.
France originally proposed reducing its ground troops and
installations while continuing to retain control of four air
and naval training baseso It has been trying to maintain
this position because of pressure from the French military
and the fear of provoking a hostile reaction among the
European settle rs in Algeria, particularly during the cam-
paign for a heavy vote in the 28 September constitutional
referendum. Paris would have to accede almost immediately
if the US announced its agreement to the principfie of evacua~
tiont

——S-E-€'RE'T—

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Tension in Venezuela

The abortive Venezuelan military coup on 7 September

and the general strike of 8 September, in which the Commu-
nists were particularly active, have apparently created an
explosive atmosphere, although surface calm prevails in
most of the country. According to the US service attaches,
there is general dissatisfaction with the junta's attempt to
meet the demands of civilian strikers. Military units re-
main on alert status, probably because of the threat of
civilian violence which has already erupted in one pro-
vincial port city.

Provocative action by either military or civilian ele-

ments could. touch off the long-pending showdown between
these two forces over control of government. The junta
is probably losing its ability to mediate between them.
Civilians, some of whom are armed, are well organized
to meet the threat of a military coup, as demonstrated in
effective general strikes on 8 September and 23 July. They
may now seek to extend their recent political victories over
the military by demanding widespread reprisals for the
coup or increased controls over the armed forces.

The divided armed. forces have largely supported the

junta thus far, but public opinion has tended to consider the
military as a whole responsible for recent plotting. The
armed forces‘ leaders may no longer tolerate additional
political reverses, and could accept the challenge of civilian
groups in a showdown of force or attempted take-over of the
government, particularly if the junta becomes a captive of
mob action. Any showdown is likely to be a bloody one, and
would probably augment existing anti-American feeling among
powerful leftist groups. \ l

——S-E€-RE‘?-

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Antgovernment
1 .4;
________
Plotting
.. _ . ._.
In Guatemala
Independence Day celebrations in Guatemala this week
end may provide an opportunity for a group of disaffected
army officers and civilians to move against the government
of President Miguel Ydigoras Fuentes. The group reportedly
plans to provoke disorders during the celebrations as an
excuse to seize the government and install a military junta.

Ydigoras‘ continued failure to deal effectively with Gua-

temala's serious economic and political problems or to curb
the growth of leftist, particularly Communist, influence has
encouraged antigovernment plotting. Such plotting will con-
tinue as long as the President maintains his no-action policy
in the face of rising political tension.

Ydigoras has long been aware of plotting against him but

so far has apparently not been sufficiently concerned to take
preventive measures. He has, however, considered declar-
ing a state of siege in order to deport the leaders of the
group which -is-planning action on 14 September.

SEGR-ELF

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Invasion Attempt W Haitian “Government Reported

i Against ' "1
Tmmifient
0

-_...i1-_,-i---1

Exiled Haitian opposition leaders are completing

preparations for their long-_planned coup attempt against
President Francois Duvalier, and an invasion attempt
may be launched within one to three weeks-mpossibly as
early as 15 September. Financial and material support
is being supplied by the Dominican Republic, and revolue
tionary groups are believed gathering in several other
places, including the Bahamas and possibly Jamaica and
Mexico.

Preparations within Haiti reportedly include a plan

to lull the government into a false sense of security by
spreading word that "all plans are off for the present!‘
The first secretary of the Dominican Embassy in Port»
au-Prince, who has previously been reported to be deeply
involved in the plot, has advised opposition leaders in
Haiti that the plans are ready and will be put in operation
as soon as the government is sufficiently off guardl

President Duvalier is not in a favorable position

to defend his regime against a welleorganized coup at»
tempt. He has lost considerable popularity during the
year since his election, and the loyalty of the army is
in doubtt His most dependable armed support comes
from the secret police and an undetermined number of
civilian partisanso The abortive 29 July coup attempt,
in which a handful of men attempted to overthrow Duvalie r,
came dangerously close to succeeding,
‘ ‘

-SEGREHL

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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser to the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior“
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director

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