Prepare For Lifto

April 2021 Market Recap & Outlook

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April 2021 Takeaways
A market-wide rally in the first half of April sent BTC, ETH, ADA, DOGE, DOT, and UNI to all-time highs before correcting in
the second half; the market’s sell-o coincided with a record $10B in crypto futures being liquidated on April 17.

BTC’s (-2%) underwhelming performance relative to altcoins (+47%), BTC’s dominance falling to a 3-year low of 49%, and
ETHBTC soaring to a 3-year high in April all indicate that market participants are preferring altcoins over BTC at this point in
the market cycle.

As interest for NFTs dwindled in April, DeFi felt life breathed back into the vertical after an underwhelming March. DeFi’s
resurgence coincided with total value locked (TVL) soaring +38% to an all-time high of $66B, many of the largest DeFi
projects by TVL posting double-digit revenue growth, and numerous DeFi projects announcing major updates.

A swath of favorable economic data was released in April showing that the global economy is growing again. However, market
participants remained on edge over talks of higher taxes, fears of inflation, and stocks at record valuations. With BTC
possessing a strong, positive correlation with stocks, last month’s data suggests that market participants ought to consider
the possibility of a stock market correction weighing on crypto.

With ETH closing out the month just beneath a critical level of resistance of the Logarithmic Regression Rainbow, the
percentage of ETH’s supply on exchanges falling to a 2.5-year low, and the number of ETH wallets with more than Ξ10,000
surging in April, ETH appears to be in the early innings of a journey up towards $5,200.

Despite BTC remaining range-bound for the past several months, on-chain data indicates that demand from institutions
remains strong and BTC’s intramonth low of $47,000 might have marked a local low in what could be a march back up to
BTC’s all-time high. As of month-end, the rise in BTC’s Bull Market Support suggests that BTC’s downside risk has dropped
meaningfully since the start of this year.

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Bitcoin (BTC) April 2021 Recap

• BTC rallied +11% to an all-time high of ~$65K before correcting -28% over an 11-day period and hitting an intramonth low of $47K on April
25. BTC’s bounce o $47K coincided with a successful backtest of the 100D SMA, a key moving average that was last tested in Oct. 2020.

• BTC’s inability to finish April higher marked the end of what was a 6-month winning streak where BTC appreciated +445%. Despite
finishing April down -2%, annualized velocity soared from 9.4x to 13.3x; this shift indicates that although price was unchanged, the BTC
network saw a significant uptick in activity & usage.

• On April 26, BTC’s volatility sank to a 5-month low of 51% before going on to finish the month at 67%. Still, BTC’s volatility remains down
more than -60 percentage points from a 3-year high of 116% that was set on February 9, 2021.

• Bitcoin’s dominance sank to a 3-year low of 49% and faced its largest monthly percentage point decline since December 2017 amid a
rotation into altcoins, which can also explain why BTC’s monthly trading volume fell -5% in April.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics
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Ether (ETH) April 2021 Recap

• April went down as ETH’s second-best month this year and marked a seventh consecutive month of gains. ETH’s rally followed newfound
institutional demand and a push past the psychologically significant $2.5K level, which led to an all-time high of $2.8K being set on April 29.

• ETH’s +32% intramonth rally and subsequent -23% correction coincided with annualized volatility slipping to a 5-month low of 74% before
finishing April at 85%, as well as total volume traded exploding +60% MoM to a 3-month high of $171B.

• Earlier in the month, a survey amongst Ethereum researchers & developers indicated that 86% of those surveyed were in favor of fast-
tracking the launch of PoS this year. On April 14, ETH’s Berlin hard fork went live - which included 4 Improvement Proposals (EIPs) that
adjusted gas prices, allowed for new transaction types, and laid the ground work for this summer’s London hard fork. Four separate Ether
ETFs also launched in Canada in response to growing demand from traditional financial institutions.

• As of April 30, more than 4M ETH 2.0 was staked, 600K (15%) of which represented funds staked by Kraken clients.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics, Twitter, Ethereum, Glassnode

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex

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Cardano (ADA) April 2021 Recap

• On April 14, ADA set an all-time high of $1.55 before correcting -40% and hitting a 2-month low of $0.92. ADA went on to rally +47% into
month-end and finished April at $1.35. ADA’s “whipsawing” price action was accompanied by volatility first falling to its lowest level since
November 2020 and then climbing to 89%, as well as trading volume towering +155% to $35B.

• An influx of interest from individuals resulted in the r/Cardano subreddit attracting +50K new subscribers, thereby bringing the subreddit’s
total subscriber count to 363K. This compares against 1.6M and 836K r/Bitcoin and r/Ethereum subreddit subscribers, respectively.

• Cardano’s parent company IOHK announced a “new partnership with the Ethiopian Government to implement a national, blockchain-based
student and teacher ID and attainment recording system to digitally verify grades, remotely monitor school performance, and boost
education and employment nationwide.”

• As of month-end, approximately 73% ($30B) of eligible ADA was staked among 464K unique delegation addresses, up from 387K in March.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics, IOHK, StakingRewards
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Dogecoin (DOGE) April 2021 Recap

• The month ended with DOGE up a jaw-dropping +500% and volatility hitting a record monthly reading of 442%. DOGE’s outperformance
and relentless bullish momentum pushed the “meme coin” into the top 5 cryptoassets by market capitalization and finished the month as the
5th largest with a market capitalization greater than $42B.

• In an interview with Business Insider, Thomas Perfumo, Head of Business Operations & strategy at Kraken, stated, “The overarching
narrative behind the coin's 30x run this year is a protest against systemic inequities in the traditional financial industry - Dogecoin is, after all,
the original 'meme asset.' This is an extension of the value that cryptocurrencies derive from vibrant and growing communities that give rise
to network e ects.”

• On April 30, 107 addresses owned ~67% of all DOGE in circulation and 3.7M addresses owned less than 1.6% of all DOGE.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex
sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics, Business Insider
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Polkadot (DOT) April 2021 Recap

• DOT advanced to an all-time high of $48.33 on April 17 before subsequently plunging -45% and hitting a 2-month low of $26.50 on April 23;
market participants were quick to capitalize on the opportunity to own DOT, hence DOT’s subsequent rally and meager -1% loss in April.

• Although o from its record $24B in volume traded in February, DOT’s monthly trading volume rose +36% MoM to $21B. The surge was
accompanied by a modest rise in volatility, which marked the end of a 3-month downtrend and a month-end reading of 104%.

• Crypto asset manager Osprey Funds launched a Polkadot trust product for accredited investors, Canada-based blockchain infrastructure
provider Figment launched a $16M investment fund aimed at supporting the development of protocols like Polkadot, Cosmos, Ethereum, and
others, and Tether announced plans to launch a stablecoin on the Polkadot and Kusama networks.

• As of month-end, approximately 64% ($25B) of eligible DOT was staked among 297 active validators.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics, Osprey Funds, Figment,

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex

CryptoNinjas, StakingRewards
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Uniswap (UNI) April 2021 Recap

• On April 29, UNI crept to an all-time high of $44 and proceeded to trend sideways before finishing the month at $40.66 (+44%); UNI remains
on a 6-month winning streak and has rallied more than +1,650% since November 2020.

• UNI’s strong performance corresponded with total value locked (TVL) climbing from $4.7B to an all-time high of $8B on April 30. UNI
finished the month with a price-to-sales ratio of 29.5x, well below the peer average and median reading of 88x and 43x, respectively. UNI
also generated $117.4M in revenue (total fees paid), a +27% increase MoM.

• UNI had its most active week ever in April; more than $11B was traded for the week ended April 24. However, weekly trading volume on the
Uniswap platform sunk to a 5-week low of $8.4B for the week ended May 1.

• Uniswap V3 is expected to go live on the Ethereum mainnet on May 5 and a “L2 deployment on Optimism set to follow shortly after.” The
update will include concentrated liquidity to give LPs granular control over what price ranges their capital is allocated to and fee tiers.

notes: trading volumes summed across Kraken, Bittrex, Binance, Binance

sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinMetrics, TokenTerminal, UniSwap

Jersey, Binance US, Bit nex, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Poloniex

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 What Happened In Crypto?

• To little surprise, DOGE was the month’s outperformer with a return of
+529% and a Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return) of nearly 23.
Meanwhile, BTC was the month’s biggest loser with an
underwhelming, albeit insignificant, -2% loss and Sharpe ratio of -0.5.

• After being last month’s underperformer with a +17% return, renewed

demand for DeFi tokens amid industry-wide innovation sent the
vertical higher. On the contrary, NFTs went from being last month’s
top performer (+285%) to April’s underperformer with a +3% gain.

• Of the various crypto verticals, Centralized Exchange (CEX) coins and

Decentralized Exchange (DEX) coins were the best performing with a
weighted average monthly return of +60% and +53%, respectively.

• The majority of CEX and DEX’s outperformance can be attributed to

Binance Coin (BNB) and PancakeSwap (CAKE); BNB finished April
up roughly +110% while CAKE posted a remarkable +125% return,
thereby placing CAKE amongst the top 25 cryptoassets by market
capitalization.

sources: Kraken Intelligence, Coingecko

• The Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) vertical was the most volatile (119%)
vertical in April, but was down from last month’s reading of 165%. The
vertical’s wimpy +3% return and drop in volatility supports comments
we made last month surrounding the rapid appreciation of the NFT
space: much like “DeFi Summer,” the air is currently being let out of
what was an initial NFT “hype cycle” whereby momentum and
optimism bid the vertical higher at an unsustainable rate.

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 What Happened In Crypto? Pt. 2

• BTC’s underwhelming performance (-2%) relative to altcoins (+47%) can perhaps be explained by market participants using their newly
appreciated BTC to rotate into altcoins in an e ort to generate potentially higher returns. This change in taste is not only evident when
comparing April returns, but when considering the macro downtrend in BTC’s dominance.

• Consider that since hitting a 1-year high of 73% in January, BTC’s dominance has been in a macro downtrend. More specifically, April
concluded with bitcoin’s dominance falling for an eighth consecutive week and hitting a 3-year low of 49%. Given the historical and
psychological significance of the 50% level, a decisive move below said level could mean that BTC underperforms in the months ahead.

• This ongoing rotation into altcoins can perhaps be explained by market participants consciously choosing to venture further out on the
“crypto risk curve” and coming to terms with “The Law of Large Numbers.” That is, as BTC gets larger and larger, it cannot sustain the same
growth. Therefore, market participants may see altcoins as having a greater upside and/or a better risk-reward profile.

Bitcoin’s Dominance (1W) & Volatility

sources: Kraken Intelligence

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 What Happened? - DeFi

DeFi April 2021 Metrics
• A resurgence in interest attracted market participants back to DeFi in
April, evidenced by the vertical’s +32% return, aggregate total value
locked (TVL) on Ethereum DeFi projects rising +38% to $66B, and
aggregate TVL on Binance Smart Chain soaring +100% to $42B.

• Of the largest DeFi projects on Ethereum, many saw double digit MoM
revenue growth. The most notable increase in revenue (total fees paid
by users) took place on Compound (+23%) and SushiSwap (+24%);
both platforms saw double-digit revenue growth on top of an existing

sources: Kraken Intelligence, DeFiPulse, DeFiStation, Synthetix, Ampleforth, UMA, Balancer, CoinDesk
revenue base exceeding $25M.

• When comparing market cap/TVL and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, one

will find that Compound (0.43 and 15x) and SushiSwap (0.42 and 9x)
DeFi April 2021 Performance
are amongst the “cheapest” projects relative to the group average &
median readings. Synthetix appears to be the most “expensive” with a
market cap/TVL of 1.27, a P/S ratio of 233x, and negative revenue
growth. Note that these valuations are subject to material change MoM.

• Other notable DeFi developments for April include: Synthetix

announcing plans to add tokens linked to US tech stocks, Curve
Finance launching on Layer 2 Solution Polygon, Ampleforth launching
its governance token, UMA and SushiSwap announcing a partnership
aimed at o ering call options for xSushi tokens, dYdX launching Layer 2
Perpetuals Powered by StarkWare, Balancer V2 going livealongside a
$2M bug bounty, and Nexus Mutual anouncing Protocol Cover support
for contracts deployed on Polkadot, Cosmos, and Binance Smart Chain.

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 What Happened? - NFTs

NFTs April 2021 Performance
• April was a mixed bag for NFTs, with some of the largest NFT
cryptoassets by market capitalization returning anywhere from -32% to
nearly +300%. Although performance was mixed, when looking at usage
across the largest NFT marketplaces, one will find that momentum in the
space has certainly dwindled over the past couple of months.

• On April 30, aggregate volume stood at $15.2M, daily transactions was at

1.2M, and the number of daily users was 78K. These figures are down
-80%, -23%, and -65% from their respective all-time highs realized earlier

sources: Kraken Intelligence, CoinGecko, Vogue Business, McDonalds, CNN, The Information, CNBC
in the year - a clear indication that February was a historic month.

• But as with all innovations in the crypto space, just because NFTs aren’t
as popular as they were a few months ago and are experiencing the
inevitable “cooling o ” period, that doesn’t mean market participants
aren’t continuing to build and innovate within the world of NFTs.
Top NFT Marketplaces Aggregate Daily Volume
• Some of the more notable NFT developments in April include:
Gucci telling Vogue Business that it’s “only a matter of time” before a
brand like Gucci will release an NFT, McDonald’s France saying it’s
planning to launch its digital artworks in the form of NFTs, Super Bowl
champion Tom Brady announcing that he is launching an NFT platform
called Autograph, Major League Baseball announcing the sale of Topps
baseball cards as NFTs via the WAX Blockchain, NBA Top Shot firm
Dapper Labs announcing a fund raising round at a $7.5B valuation, and IP
specialist IPwe announcing that it will begin working with IBM to
represent patents as NFTs.

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 Industry Highlights & News

BTCUSD (1D)
A. April 1: News breaks that Morgan Stanley filed to offer BTC exposure in institutional funds.
B. April 2: Mark Cuban says ETH is "closest to a true currency,” BTC "is a better alternative to gold.” I J KL

sources: Kraken Intelligence, Glassnode, Forbes, Microstrategy, Yahoo! Finance, CoinDesk, CNBC, Reuters, SEC, CoinTelegraph, Business Insider
H
C. April 5: Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy acquires an additional ₿253. AB C DE FG
MN S
D. April 6: Goldman Sachs CEO says that the digital currency world will have a “big evolution.”
O QR
E. April 7: California real estate stalwart Caruso properties says it’s accepting BTC for rent.
F. April 8: Publicly traded software firm Meitu purchases ₿175, State Street says it is providing the P
infrastructure for a new bank-grade trading platform for digital assets and will go live mid-
year, NYDIG raises $100M from Liberty Mutual Insurance, Star Insurances, and others.
G. April 9: Data shows that BTC miners are storing coins for the first time since Dec. 27, 2020.
H. April 12: MicroStrategy announces that it’ll pay its non-employee directors in BTC.
I. April 13: ConsenSys raises $65M from JPMorgan, Mastercard, & UBS to build DeFi infrastructure.
J. April 14: Coinbase starts trading, $623M worth of BTC stolen from Bitfinex is moved.
K. April 16: Fintech app Wealthfront says it will offer direct crypto investing later this year, Turkey
bans the use of crypto for goods & service payment.
L. April 17: More than $10B worth of crypto futures are liquidated. Crypto Futures Liquidations
M. April 19: 3iQ’s BTC ETF begins trading on the TSX, Ray Dalio says that BTC should be part of
any portfolio.
N. April 20: Venmo adds support for crypto purchases.
O. April 22: Grayscale Investments acquires an additional ~$1B worth of crypto, President Biden
proposes raising long-term capital gains tax to 40%, regulatory filings show that Morgan
Stanley’s new BTC-only private funds raised $29M from 322 investors in 2 weeks.
P. April 25: BTC closes below the 100D SMA for the first time since October 2020.
Q. April 26: JPMorgan says it is preparing to o er an actively managed BTC fund to private
wealth clients.
R. April 27: Public Japanese Gaming company NEXON announces a $100M BTC purchase.
S. April 30: $4.2B worth of BTC options contracts expire.

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 What Happened? - Trad. Markets

Traditional Markets April 2021 Performance
• United States: 1Q21 GDP came in better-than-expected (4.1% vs. 2.5%),
the ISM services index jumped to a 24-year high, retail sales surged
+9.8%, CPI (inflation) rose +0.6% MoM (+2.6% YoY) on easy comparisons,
sales of existing homes fell -3.7%, jobless claims for the last week of April
were 576K (a 13-month low), and industrial production rose +1.4% MoM.
Though data indicated that the US economy is growing, equities fell mid-
month on news that President Biden wants to increase corporate taxes to
28% and capital gains tax to 40%. Notwithstanding the potential for higher
taxes and growing inflation fears, the month ended with equities at historic
levels and the CAPE ratio at a 20-year high of 37.5x.

• Europe: Germany reported a better-than-expected 1Q21 GDP of -1.7%,

which prompted some economists to forecast a speedier recovery in
Europe. The Eurozone’s services PMI rose from 45.7 to 49.6, signaling that
services contracted marginally, and manufacturing PMI increased from Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) Ratio
57.9 to a record 62.5 - much of which was driven by a rebound in Germany.
UK manufacturing activity hit a 10-year high of 58.9.

• China: China’s economy grew a record +18.3% YoY in 1Q21, the biggest

sources: Kraken Intelligence, S&P Global

jump since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992, and its
services PMI improved from 51.5 to 54.3 (expansion). Inflation fears
weighed on sentiment after the government reported that producer prices
jumped +4.4% YoY (the fastest in 2 years) and consumer prices edged up
+0.4% YoY. The Financial Stability and Development Commission issued a
statement saying, “We must keep the basic stability of prices and pay
particular attention to the trend of commodities prices.”

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 BTC Correlations
BTC 90D Rolling Correlation - Risk-On Assets
• While BTC struggled to hold onto gains realized earlier in the month, U.S.
and European equities paced higher. As a result, BTC’s correlation with the
Nasdaq, Stoxx 600, and S&P 500 weakened in April and sank to levels last
seen in December 2020.

• Meanwhile, BTC’s correlation with GME and TSLA grew increasingly more
positive heading into month-end, but remain either modestly positively
correlated or negative correlated.

• BTC’s correlation with U.S. treasuries and gold rose from -0.91 to -0.8 and
from -0.83 to -0.58, respectively. Bond yields falling and gold rallying may
have played a role during the first half of April, both of which reversed in
the second half of April. The rally and subsequent retrace corresponds
with BTC hitting an all-time high of April 14 and then entering an 11-day
correction - hence correlations softening. However, BTC’s correlation with
BTC 90D Rolling Correlation - Risk-O Assets
both risk-o assets remains strongly negatively correlated.

• Relative to the US dollar index, BTC’s correlation hit a 1-year high of 0.68
on April 5 before trending lower and finishing at 0.47. The change can be
explained by the US dollar index rallying to a 3-month high in early-April
before subsequently selling-o and revisiting early-March levels.

sources: Kraken Intelligence, IEX

• Despite the reversal in BTC’s correlation with risk-on & risk-o assets, both
remain strongly positively & negative correlated. Therefore, one should
consider how the crypto market might react should market participants
rotate out of risk-on assets and into risk-o assets upon a market-wide
correction.

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 History Says…
BTCUSD Monthly Volatility
• Last month, history failed to repeat. Although April is, on average, the
best performing month, BTC posted its third worst April performance
(-2%) and its first negative monthly return since September 2020.
Although annualized volatility rose 3 percentage points MoM, April
was less volatile than the average (96%) and median (74%) readings.

• Upon comparing monthly averages, one will find that May is the
second-best performing month with an average return of +36%.
Additionally, one will see that only in 2015 and 2018 did BTC finish the BTCUSD Monthly Returns
month in the red, making May the least negative yielding month.

• By taking the midpoint (71.5%) of BTC’s average and median

annualized volatility for May and assuming history repeats, we can
expect volatility to trend modestly higher and BTC to return anywhere
from +13% (median) and +36% (average) in May.

• May is typically not the least volatile month, but could still be a
relatively quiet due to seasonality. In the traditional financial world, Historical 2Q Returns - By Year
market participants tend to "sell in May and go away.” That is, May
returns and volatility tend to be lower due to market participants
taking summer vacation and lower trading volumes.

sources: Kraken Intelligence, IEX

• When comparing BTC’s quarter-to-date return relative to the previous
2Q performance, one will find that 2Q21 has an average correlation of
-0.41. This tells us that, as of the end of April, BTC is trending in a
manner that is vastly di erent than previous 2Q performances.

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 ETH: The Road to $5,200

• In our March 2020 Market Recap & Outlook report, we highlighted that according to Ethereum’s Logarithmic Regression Rainbow, ETH’s
next big test of resistance was band 5 ($2,800). As of April 30, ETH is on the cusp of breaking through said resistance and potentially turning
resistance into support.

• In the event ETH succeeds in closing and holding above $2,800 in May, the case could be made that ETH is in the early innings of an ascent
up to $5,200 (band 6). At an end-of-month price of $2,776, a test of band 6 would imply an incremental +87.3% gain.

• As di icult as will be for ETH to sustain double digit returns, the case could also be made that ETH still has plenty of upside. Since hitting a
multi-year high of ~18% around mid-February, ETH's dominance has mean reverted down to 12% and has largely trended sideways. The fact
that ETH continues to climb higher while retaining the same market share suggests that ETH has yet to take-o .

Ethereum's Logarithmic Regression Rainbow

sources: Kraken Intelligence

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 ETH: Strong Demand, Weak Supply

• A surge in institutional interest and growing optimism surrounding ongoing developments has yielded a newfound wave of demand for ETH
like never before. Such is evident when looking at the percentage of ETH’s supply on exchanges, which continued trending lower in April and
hit a near 2.5-year low of 11.8% on April 22.

• A surge in demand can also be seen when considering the number of wallets with a balance of Ξ10K (“whales”) or more. Both trends tell us
that the market is attracting deep pocketed market participants who are choosing to buy & hold ETH for a while.

• While ETH’s outperformance can be attributed to new market participants, the case could also be made that existing market participants
are opting to rotate into ETH over BTC. When looking at ETHBTC, one will see that in the last week of April, ETH’s valuation relative to BTC
soared to a 3-year high in what is a macro uptrend dating back to January 2020. Needless to say, the data indicates that ETH appears to
have stolen the limelight from BTC for the time being.

Institutions Moving Into ETH ETHBTC (1W)

sources: Kraken Intelligence, Glassnode

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 BTC: Strong Demand, Weak Supply

• Staying true to the trend, the percentage of BTC sitting on exchanges dwindled in April and hit a 3-year low of 12.8% on April 19 before
finishing April at 12.9%. The movement of coin o exchange was also met with what appears to be a slowdown in whale profit-taking, as
evidenced by the number of wallet balances with more than ₿1K unchanged. Both suggest that BTC demand remains strong, market
participants are opting to hold, and BTC’s immediately marketable supply continues to shrink.

• BTC’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also tells a similar story; the ratio, which is simply the price sold/price paid of all coins, fell below 1 in
mid-April and thus signaled that market participants were, on average, moving BTC at a slight loss. Because no one wants to sell at a loss in
a bull market, a move down to a SOPR of 1 suggests that few market participants will sell at current price. As we already saw twice this year,
this reduction in immediately marketable sell-side supply implies that price may have found a local bottom and could rally in May.

BTC Moving O Exchange SOPR Indicator vs. BTCUSD

sources: Kraken Intelligence, Glassnode

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 BTC: Prepare For Lifto

• As hypothesized last month, the macro uptrend in BTC’s Bull Market Support (the 20W EMA and the 21W SMA) now puts the historically
significant support level at roughly ~$45K. Given the relevance and reliability of the 20W EMA and 21W SMA in previous bull market cycles,
one could argue that at a month-end price of $57,780, BTC’s downside risk is in the range of a -20.5% to -23% correction.

• Despite the fact that BTC could fall in excess of -20% while retaining the integrity of the bull market, one ought to note that a correction
down to the Bull Market Support is significantly smaller than what it was in March (-29% to -36%) and February (-34% to -43%).

• Although BTC’s consolidation between $50K - $60K over the past few months hasn’t been as eventful as many hoped, said consolidation has
allowed for the market to catch its breath and for BTC to build a new support to potentially lift o from in the not-so-distant future.

Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support

sources: Kraken Intelligence

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 Disclaimer

The information in this report is provided by, and is the sole opinion of, Kraken’s research desk. The information is provided as general market commentary and
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