Managing Project Uncertainty 1

Managing Project Uncertainty

Charles Porter

Arizona State University

My Lack of Knowledge when it comes to Project Management

This week I would have to say it was a very enlightening week for me. I learned that a

good project manager cannot always plan for every aspect of the project. I believe that a project

manager can pick their team, process the scope of the project, but something can and will come

into play that may hinder or help the project. Through our simulation, I learned that failure is a

success. I have always known the quote, "You learn for your failures." I am not one who likes

failure or failing.    

I learned that a good project manager would learn how to "frame the underlying problem"

(Celden, pg.48). I am new to the project management world, and there is still a lot I need to

learn. Having a competitive spirit does not translate to understanding the project. I could be the

manager that gets the project out on time, but did I sit back and research the unknown avenues of

the project that might pop up when starting the project. As Celden expressed in the reading

framing, "It enables us to approach uncertainty from a different angle." (Celden, pg.48). As a

project manager, I need to understand every aspect of the project. I need to be able to tackle the

unknowns and be better at being proactive rather than reactive. I know a good manager will plan

out every known variable and workout every unknown when starting a project.   This week's

reading was a big help when it came to an understanding of how to tackle every angle of a

project. There are so many issues and problems that can arise during a project—understanding

how to control variables, understanding how to analyze root problems can make a great

manager.    

Another characteristic I learned this week was how to take your time and make sure to

analyze everything. On June 06, herding cats dropped an excellent quote I think ties in very

nicely with this week's reading. It comes from the late Steve Jobs, and he was quoted in saying,
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"When you first start off trying to solve a problem, the first solutions you come up with are very

complex, and most people stop there. But if you keep going and live with the problem and peel

more layers of the onion off, you can often time arrive at some very elegant and simple solutions.

Most people just don't put in the time or energy to get there." (Herding Cats, 2020). A great

manager will look at every project (like Steve Jobs said) like an onion. Go over, analyze every

layer until you have broken it down. You need to be patient, and you need to be thorough.  

When you sit back and take your time, you will be able to see "operational risk, Short term

strategic risk, and Long-term strategic risk." (Awati, 2013). It is vital to understand all these

risks. Awati has a great blog; each of the risks mentioned above can have alerting effects on a

project. If a manager does not have well rounded problem-solving ability, every one of those

risks will become a hindrance to the project.  

Do I agree with this week’s readings and Simulations?

I agree with a lot of this week's readings and blogs. I am one that needs all the guidance I

can obtain. I believe a good manager needs to be well rounded, patient, and have outstanding

problem-solving abilities. I also agree that a manager can use past experiences to help a project

out, but you cannot always use past experiences to complete a project. As Celden spoke about

"Faulty Pattern recognition" (Celden, pg. 43), I think you can harness old experiences to help

troubleshoot the current project. We need to recognize the differences between existing projects

and projects we have used in the past. There is nothing wrong with seeing patterns in a project,

but that does not mean those past experiences will help the current problem. 

I agree with page forty-three and pattern recognition. It is very easy for someone to look

at a project and say to themselves, "I've done this before." However, past experiences may have

been with a different organization and a different project altogether. I believe we should use past
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experiences for current issues. I also think that those past experiences will not always equate to

the solution. But I do believe that in rare circumstances, you can find the same answer for current

problems that were used in the past. 

Simulation for Week 4

In our simulation this week, I believe I started to understand how to frame my project

better. After a few attempts, I decided to take a different route. For the most part, I wanted to

"beat" the competition and get our system out first. However, when I decided to look out all

variables of the project, I realized there is a bigger picture involved. I took examples from the

video game world and applied it to the simulation. When a video game is being developed, it

takes time, and deadlines are hardly met. People will still buy a much-anticipated video if they

know the developers are putting out the best available option for that game.

I decided to change the printers from high speed to the multifunctional printer. I decided I

would never meet the week twelve deadline. I wanted to give my customers a better product

(possibly) than the competition. So instead of the week seventeen deadline, I went with a week

fifteen deadline from there. I tinkered with the results for a few attempts. I finally found a

median that worked for this week. My best result was when I made the project set for week

fifteen deadline. I went over by three weeks but found that in the grand scope of the project, it

was the best decision. My employees stayed relatively happy and not so stressed out. From there,

I decided (as mentioned previously) went with a higher quality product. I felt this would appease

management. They would see my team working on a product that was better than anticipated and

possibly better than the competition. From there, I made sure I had high-quality people, and a lot

of outsourcing to ease the pain of a shorten project.  

When I took a step back and thought about all the different variables that this simulation

could throw at me, I found that what I did would help in the grand scheme of the project. The

morale stayed high, and productivity stayed up as well. Management did not seem too worried

about the delay, and no one complained about being overworked.

How I applied my teaching this week

Recently I was tasked to help the management team at my work to go over our send

systems. The systems at my plant are an intricate and complex system for sending coffee to pack

lines. We are close to an organic audit, and we need to make sure that our organic coffee is

staying organic through the whole system.

I have been looking at these systems day in and day out for three years. I have become

familiar with them, and in one way, become complacent in their usage. I had not thought about or

looked at how they work in some time. I decided to take a walk around the plant and look at

each sending system (organic and non-organic). One of our most significant issues is when we

roast organic is the cleaning process that is needed to keep organic products organic. It is tedious

and can last a long time. We are talking of having to clean miles of tubing, and multiple staging

silos that hold the coffee. It had never occurred to me that we could try something new.

My thought was, "what if we had designated silos for only organic, and one system that is

only organic." I checked to see if this was a possibility. We have an old send system that is no

longer in use because there are parts missing. I found out that to fix this system would not be too

expensive, and according to the maintenance supervisor, we have the parts in the warehouse. I

asked if this is something that could be fixed during the upcoming plant shut down when

maintenance cleans and repairs the entire send system. He replied with a hesitant, "yes".  
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I brought my idea to my supervisor and manager during the meeting. It never occurred to them

that there was an available system, and this could save a lot of time and money in the long run.

They were encouraged with the time I spent looking into this matter, and we're hopeful they

could make this happen.

Even though I have not heard what the outcome is for the sending system. I took pride in

the fact that I looked at the whole scope of the problem for organic. I felt that when I thought

about every variable possible, that could help our situation, I came up with a very plausible

solution to the plant's problem. If this falls in to play, we will cut manpower down, and cost

down because we won't have to buy a hi-end cleaner that is only allowed for organic coffee.

Because of my actions, they have tasked me with other projects. Most recently, they want me to

see what I can do to help morale out in our coffee roasting office (my office). The first thing I

did was start to earn the trust from my co-workers. I have heard repeatedly they would love to

have an air filter in the office. We sit so close to the roasters that it would be wonderful to feel

like they are not inhaling the fumes from the coffee roasters all day. As of yesterday, we have a

brand-new air filter overnighted to us from Amazon. With that victory the office saw that I could

get a simple task done, and now are asking me to go to management with more ideas.

I am hopeful that with management seeing that I can think outside the box and gaining

the trust of my fellow roasters I will be able to accomplish more projects soon.
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References:

Awati, K. (2013, August 07). Operational and strategic risks on projects. Retrieved June 09,

2020, from https://eight2late.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/operational-and-strategic-risks-on-

projects/

Camenisch, J. (2020, June 06). Quote of the Day. Retrieved June 08, 2020, from
https://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2020/06/quote-of-the-day-8.html

CLEDEN, D. (2009). MANAGING PROJECT UNCERTAINTY. New York, NY: ROUTLEDGE.