You are on page 1of 28

Financial Technology

Payments Pulse Week 20: Competor Conference Cliff


Notes
Our Payments Pulse is a weekly installment recapping relevant industry newsflow, valuaon,
May 22, 2021 relevant policy implicaons, upcoming catalysts, and esmate revisions for companies under
Michael Del Grosso coverage. In this week's edion, the state of crypto regulaons comes under great focus as a rocky
202.534.1395 week of trading creang more quesons than answers. Developments in blockchain connued
mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com with Bank of America integrang Paxos into their selement systems, joining the likes of Credit
Suisse and Nomura. In payments, Square upgraded its terminals and announced a partnership
Companies Menoned with Plaid. Next week we note that conferences connue to drive catalysts across our coverage.
Ticker Price Target Rang
Notable Newsflow
ACIW $46.00 Buy
Competor Conference Highlights: Mulple companies from our coverage universe parcipated
ADYEN €1,900.00 Neutral in competor conferences this week. Below we have highlighted some of our main takeaways from
EVOP $35.00 Buy their various presentaons.
FIS $155.00 Neutral
EVOP commentary from competor conference. EVOP management parcipated in a competor
FISV $145.00 Buy conference this week. Our takeaways are as follows:
FOUR $80.00 Neutral
GPN $220.00 Neutral • Cash-to-Card macro trends. Management expects a permanent pivot from cash to card
coming out of the pandemic. The US/UK are already highly penetrated markets in terms
JKHY $180.00 Buy of cards (+- 65%) though based on same store sales, management expects this number to
MA $430.00 Buy increase. Internaonally, management sees more room for growth where today there is only
~35% card penetraon.
PYPL $290.00 Buy
QTWO $130.00 Buy • Europe segment update: Management sees recent momentum discussed on 1Q21 earnings
call accelerang into May. Posive developments across Poland and the UK with expectaons
SI $165.00 Buy of an accelerated recovery in 2H21. Management highlighted that a majority of cross-border
SQ $245.00 Neutral is intra-connental volumes in Poland (~75%) with the remaining (~25%) resulng from
V $265.00 Buy interconnental volumes between Poland and non-European countries. Management expects
intra-connental to recovery faster than interconnental.
• North America segment update: Management highlight Mexico, which makes up 20% of
overall volume as extremely resilient during the period. All temporary cost reducons
(furlough and salary reducons) have been reinstated as of the end of 2020. A majority of
permanent cost reducons occurred in the U.S. which has historically been the company's
slowest growing region
• M&A: Management highlighted the company's cash balance as being "well posioned"
for a transacon. EVOP is focusing of new bank partnership deals and some tech-enabled
acquisions with a focus on a more accommodave deal environment going into 2H21/FY22.
• Chile update: Management is confident about banking partner BCI's ability to drive business
in the region. EVO sees a very large TAM and is confident about building market share in the
region. Looking ahead, the company is open to expanding their footprint in LATAM with a
major focus on South America.
• APAC in the future: When discussing their expansion into Chile and South America,
management highlighted the APAC region as their next potenal expansion zone but did not
provide any further details.

Fidelity Informaon Services (FIS):

• Modern Banking: Management sees a very long runway for growth in the MBP. Management
highlighted their breadth of product offerings as a major driver of cross-sale potenal when
working with exisng MBP clients and those looking to switch to the plaorm. Management
highlighted that lending is the next product offering coming to the MBP and expects this to
drive even further growth in the segment.

See Important Disclosures on page 27 of this report.


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 2

• Real me payments: Management explained their role in real-me payments as the central
orchestrator connecng and facilitang the RTP developments around the world. Highlighted
recent developments in India where RTP has reduced FX costs by ~40% and transaconal fees
by ~90% all while reducing the selement me from 3-5 days to just a few hours. Management
believes to be in the early innings of RTP developments and growth.
• Crypto: Highlighted that the recent deal with NYDIG was driven by customer request for
crypto buy/hold/sell capabilies. Currently, focused on crypto as a payment source, with
management stang "we believe [that cryptocurrencies] are just the next payment type for
us." Management claims to be well posioned from an acquirer perspecve, already working
with mulple crypto exchanges.
• Merchant: Management reiterated their confidence in their travel volume guidance provided
in Q1. UK restricon liing is having a posive impact in the region and expects the trend
to connue across Europe. Management noted that the pandemic has created a lot of
momentum around how we interact, nong the shi to QR menus and mobile ordering
capabilies in the food & beverage sector.
• API Development: Management noted that developer experience has become the biggest
change in the business cycle over the past 10 years. The company notes they are no longer
selling to just the CFO but also the CTO claiming, "we must have the tech stack to ence the
engineers."

Global Payments (GPN):

• Decoupling from networks: Management stated, "[We are] very pleased with the volumes
we've seen in April and those have connued into May." Management reiterated their
opmism around 2021 highlighng the raised guidance across the board in 1Q21.
• Tech-enabled Channels: Management noted that the tech-enabled business segment is
orchestrated to grow in the high double-digits with more discussion coming at the company's
upcoming investors' day. Addionally, management highlighted they beat a goal set in 2018
to achieved 75% of revenue from tech-enabled sources by 2020. The company beat this
expectaon by 6-months with the pandemic accelerang the transion and affirming the
company's strategic shi towards tech-enabled plaorms.
• Google Partnership: Management discussed their recent partnership with Google highlighng
a day one benefit to the company through the Google sales team driving new business to GPN.
Addionally, the company noted that the synergies of moving legacy data centers to Google's
cloud and the expansion of Google as a customer — now one of GPN's largest — as addive
benefits of the deal.
• BNPL: On BNPL, management pointed to their presence in Asia where BNPL has existed
already as preparing the company to understand the potenal impacts of the technology in
the United States and Europe. Management noted significant growth of the product in South
America as well.
• M&A: On the conference management stated, "We're very bullish on doing more M&A" with
limited explanaon. The company pointed to their upcoming investors' day for more details.
• Compeve Environment: Management believes their shi to tech-enabled has prepared the
company to face the ever-changing compeve environment. From a segment perspecve,
the company is confident in their posion across both merchant and issuing, highlighng
a big moat and scale as GPN's compeve advantage in issuing. Business & Consumer is
the segment where GPN sees the most room for development point to their internaonal
expansion plans and B2B offerings as a dynamic way the company is staying on the "front foot"
of compeon.
PAYMENTS: Square taps Plaid to speed up ACH online. According to a press release from Square
on Thursday, the company has partnered with Plaid to allow merchants to process payments via
ACH without retaining sensive customer informaon. Today, the default payment method of
choice for online are cards, which boast higher fees than ACH, but now online merchants are

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 3

able to process ACH debits seamlessly through Square Invoices or Square Web Payments SDK.
Square ulizes a tokenized check system which when integrated with Plaid allows customers to
securely connect bank accounts for ACH payments. The press release also reports that Square is
offering fee-free refunds on ACH payments process on their plaorm in order to further ence
the use of ACH payments. Compass Take: The ulizaon of alternave payment rails such as ACH
presents a growing challenge to the incumbency, parcularly debt cards, have controlled in the
past. While ACH is not a new payment rail by a long stretch, we note its superior cost profile makes it
a compeve threat to some payment methods and parcularly in the online (or card-not-present
environment).

CRYPTO: CeFi fails during recent volality. Bloomberg reported this week on a recent downme
experience by two of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase and Binance. According to the
arcle, both exchange experienced temporary outages on Wednesday during a period of extreme
volality in the asset class. Crypto investors oen ulize leverage in their trading schemes
which, during extensive price drops, may result in automac liquidaons. This past week the
crypto markets experienced a significant drop in value due to various events surrounding market
senment, these inial declines were exacerbated by the liquidaon of more than $8.6B in crypto
derivaves. Bloomberg claims that the backend infrastructure of many crypto exchanges may
not be sufficient to support the wide-spread growth experienced by the asset class over the
past year. The congeson experienced by these centralized exchanges have driven more investors
onto decentralized exchanges (DEXs) that ulize smart contract technology to facilitate peer-to-
peer transacons, removing the potenal shutdowns experienced by the likes of Coinbase and
Binance. Compass Take: We view the exchange failures as less of a centralizaon problem and
more of a payment rail problem. The new age technology that is cryptocurrencies and blockchain
are inherently hindered by the legacy payment rails facilitang a majority of the real money
movement, especially on and off centralized exchanges. Generally, we believe that as the crypto
ecosystem matures, the infrastructure will mature alongside resulng in fewer exchange outages.
That said, the widespread failure of several centralized crypto exchanges on Wednesday may only
fuel the narrave that DeFi exchanges and AMMs are perhaps a more useful alternave.

CRYPTO: BlockFi pays outsized reward payments. According to a report from Coindesk, crypto
lending plaorm BlockFi incorrectly deposited various amounts of BTC into users accounts over
the past week. As part of an apparent promoon encouraging users to trade a certain level of USD
on the plaorm resulted in mulple incorrect transfers of BTC, up to 700BTC (or ~$28.5M as of
May 20th) in some cases. Many users, either knowingly or not, transferred these rewards out of
BlockFi essenally making the transacon irreversible. BlockFi in response issued mulple emails
to customers demanding the return of said BTC, threatening legal acon should the demand not
be met. According to the arcle, many users were offered ~$1000 worth of GUSD (Gemini's nave
stablecoin) for the inconvenience. Compass Take: Irreversibility of transacons is an inherent risk
associated with cryptocurrencies. While sll on BlockFi's plaorm the company was able to reverse
these transacons, however, should a user have been able to move the incorrectly dispersed crypto
off of BlockFi, the company would have no way of reclaiming their lost assets. The arcle did not
report if all the lost BTC was returned or if the company will be pursuing any legal acon against
their customers. Should the company pursue legal acon, the developments of such a case could
be crucial in seng legal precedent as it relates to incorrect crypto transacon.

PAYMENTS: Square takes aim at restaurant tech. According to a report by PYMNTS.com, Square
has introduced Square KDS as a stand-alone product suite. Previously, Square's Kitchen Display
System (KDS) was only available through a premium bundled plan Restaurant Plus, however,
now the POS system is available as a separate product. Square believes this will make it easier
for restaurants to enter the Square ecosystem, building a growing reliance on the company's
technology. Restaurant Tech ("ResTech") is an increasingly compeve space with incumbents
such as Toast launching a suite of new contactless services and ResTech SaaS startup Olo who
recently filed their S-1 in March all looking to claim their slice of the industry. Compass Take: We
view Square's renewed introducon into the restaurant vercal to be a much-needed compeve
element to drive innovaon and to compete with exisng pricing models. The redesign of Square's
food and beverage strategy is a welcomed diversificaon of customer focus with the potenal to

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 4

expand its reach across the micromerchant / single-locaon operators into larger more enterprise-
level corporaons.

BLOCKCHAIN: Bank of America to ulize blockchain for speeding up selements. According to


Blockworks, Bank of America has joined the likes of Credit Suisse and Nomura in tesng Paxos'
selement services plaorm. The integraon of Paxos could reduce the selement me for equity
trades from days to minutes. Currently, Bank of America is tesng the plaorm internally with
plans to launch the service to customers following approval from regulators. Bank of America is a
part of growing list of Wall Street banks that are beginning to ulize blockchain technology with
JPM building an overnight repurchase agreement plaorm on Ethereum, while Goldman and BNY
Mellon begin offering crypto products to their wealth management clients. Compass Take: We
connue to view further adopon of crypto and blockchain as a net posive to the enre ecosystem.
As protocols and blockchains move into more real-world applicaons, the technology gains a new
level of public support viewed as more than just a speculave asset and instead the new class of
technology set to disrupt various aspects of the economy.

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 5

Recent Research
Thoughts on Silvergate, Stablecoins, and the Selloff - 51921

Blockchain & Cryptocurrency Virtual Conference - June 24, 2021 - 51721

Payments Pulse Week 19: Diem Headlines Incoming - 51521

Facebook's Diem & Silvergate Announce Exclusive Partnership - 51421

JKHY Investor Day Takeaways - 51221

PSFE 1Q21 Takeaways: Discrete Impacts to Q1; Long-Term Thesis Enhanced & Guidance
Reiterated - 51121

Payments Pulse Week 18: Earnings Recaps; Crypto M&A - 5821

FOUR 1Q21 Takeaways: Volumes Prepare for Orbit; Take Rates Prepare for Reentry - 5621

SQ 1Q21 Takeaways: Strong Beat Across the Board; Cash App Connues to Benefit from Smulus
- 5621

ACIW 1Q21 Takeaways: Steady Start to '21 - 5621

QTWO 1Q21 Takeaways: Solid Start to '21; Eyes on 2H21 Bookings - 5621

FIS 1Q21 Takeaways: Revenue Beat & Guidance Increased - 5621

EVOP 1Q21 Takeaways: Solid Start to '21; Posive Outlook for European Volumes this Summer
- 5621

PYPL 1Q21 Takeaways: Turn Up the Volume, Here Come the Beats - 5621

GPN 1Q21 Takeaways: Revenue Beat on US Recovery & Smulus Impacts - 5421

JKHY F3Q21 Takeaways: Normalizaon on Track for FY22 - 5421

Payments Pulse Week 17: Earnings Season Underway - 5121

MA 1Q21: Solid Start to 2021 on Revenue Beat yet Expense Guide Tempers Enthusiasm;
Reopening on Deck for 2H21 - 42821

V F2Q21 Takeaways: Strong Beat Driven by Domesc Volumes; Potenal for Cross-Border
Recovery into Summer - 42821

FISV 1Q21 Takeaways: Clover and Carat Buoy Merchant Results - 42721

Payments Pulse Week 16: More Earnings on Deck; Crypto on Venmo; Diem Any Day Now? -
42421

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 6

Industry Comp

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 7

Catalyst Calendar
Looking ahead. We are headed into the heat of conference
season with mulple competor conferences hosted over the
next few weeks. We are hosng our own conference June 24th
focusing on blockchain and crypto, please contact your sales
person for more informaon

• 524 - 526 Competor Conference

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 8

COVID-19 Data Dashboard


Chart 1 - YoY Change in Acve Merchants (CardFlight) Chart 2 - YoY Change in Contactless Payments
30.0% 500.0%

20.0%
400.0%

10.0%
300.0%

0.0%

200.0%

-10.0%

100.0%
-20.0%

0.0%
-30.0%

-40.0% -100.0%

Source: Compass Point, CardFlight Source: Compass Point, CardFlight

Chart 3 - YoY Change in SMB Sales Volume and Chart 4 - US First Spend Data
Transaons (%) 30.0%
100.0% 20.0%
80.0% 10.0%
60.0% 0.0%
40.0% -10.0%

20.0% -20.0%

0.0% -30.0%

-20.0% -40.0%

-40.0%
-50.0%
Jun-19

Jun-20
Jul-20
May-19

Jul-19
Aug-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Sep-19

Jan-20

Aug-20

Jan-21
Feb-20

Apr-20
Mar-20

Sep-20

Feb-21

Apr-21
Mar-21
Oct-19

Oct-20
-60.0%

US Dollar Volume Credit Debit

Change in Volume Change in Transactions


Source: Compass Point, Bloomberg
Source: Compass Point, CardFlight

Chart 5 - US Census New Business Formaons (YoY Chart 6 - ABI Bankruptcy Fillings
Growth) 747
722
685
140% 125% 643 654
631
609
120% 106% 530 549 530 560 528
550
487 479
100% 449 444 450 449
424 423 420 420
392 394 384
80% 366

60% 287

40%

20%

0%
Jul-19
Jun-19

Jun-20
Jul-20
Apr-19

Mar-21
Apr-21
Jan-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

Apr-20
May-20

Nov-20
Mar-19

May-19

Dec-20
Feb-19

Aug-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21
Sep-19

Feb-20

Sep-20
Oct-20

Feb-21
Oct-19

-20%
-38%
-40%

-60%
1/11

3/21
3/28
4/4
4/11
4/18
4/25
5/2

7/11
7/18
7/25
8/1
8/8
8/15
8/22

10/31
11/7
11/14
11/21
11/28
12/5
12/12
12/19

2/27
3/6
3/13
3/20
3/27
4/3
4/10
1/18
1/25
2/1
2/8
2/15
2/22
2/29
3/7
3/14

5/9
5/16
5/23
5/30
6/6
6/13
6/20
6/27
7/4

8/29
9/5
9/12
9/19
9/26
10/3
10/10
10/17
10/24

12/26
1/2
1/9
1/16
1/23
1/30
2/6
2/13
2/20

4/17
4/24
5/1
5/8

Source: Compass Point, ABI

Source: Compass Point, Census Bureau

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 9

Industry Valuaon
Chart 7 - Industry 2021 P/E (CY) Chart 8 - Industry 2021 EV/EBITDA (CY)
448x 229x

180x
273x
208x 200x

134x 95x

54x 50x 45x 41x 40x 37x 49x


34x 24x 20x 39x 32x 32x
22x 19x 19x 16x 16x 15.6x14.6x

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 9 - Industry 2022 P/E Chart 10 - Industry 2022 EV/EBITDA


229x
140x

110x
128x
95x 88x 67x
65x
43x 40x 35x
34x 32x 30x 29x 37x 33x
21x 17x 27x 26x
19x 17x 16x 15x 14x
13x 13x

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 11 - Industry EV/Revenue by Growth - 2021 Chart 12 - Industry EV/Revenue by Revenue Growth -
60.0x 2022
ADYEN-NL
45.0x

ADYEN-NL
50.0x 40.0x

35.0x

40.0x 30.0x

25.0x

SI
30.0x SI 20.0x
V

15.0x
V
QTWO
PYPL
20.0x 10.0x GPN FOUR
FIS
FISV
JKHY
PSFEEVOP SQ
ACIW
5.0x
QTWO
PYPL
FOUR
GPN MA
10.0x FIS 0.0x
JKHY FISV
EVOP SQ 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
ACIW PSFE

MA
0.0x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Source: Compass Point, Factset

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 10

Industry Performance
Chart 13 - Industry WTD Performance Chart 14 - Industry MTD Performance
13% 5%

10%
8%
8%

-1% -1%
-2% -2%
-3% -3%
2% -4% -4% -4%
1% 1% -5%
0% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% -1% -9% -10%-10%-10%


-1%
-3%
-13%

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 15 - Industry QTD Performance Chart 16 - Industry YTD Performance


9%
7% 7% 42%
5% 4%
3% 3% 3%
2% 2%

18%
11%
7% 7% 5%
-3% 4% 4% 3% 3%
-4% -4% 0%
-6%

-3% -4%
-11% -12% -8% -10%

-21%

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 11

ACI Worldwide Revisions


Chart 17 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 18 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$1,550 $350

$1,500 $340

$330
$1,450
$320
$1,400
$310
$1,350
$300
$1,300
$290
$1,250 $280

$1,200 $270

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 19 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 20 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$2.50 $0.20
$0.18
$2.00 $0.16
$0.14
$1.50 $0.12
$0.10
$1.00 $0.08
$0.06
$0.50 $0.04
$0.02
$0.00 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 12

Adyen Revisions
Chart 21 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 22 - 1H21 Revenue Esmates
€ 980 € 560
€ 550
€ 960
€ 540
€ 940 € 530

€ 920 € 520
€ 510
€ 900 € 500
€ 880 € 490
€ 480
€ 860
€ 470
€ 840 € 460

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 23 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 24 - 1H21 EPS Esmates


€ 15.00 € 9.00
€ 14.00 € 8.80

€ 13.00 € 8.60
€ 8.40
€ 12.00
€ 8.20
€ 11.00
€ 8.00
€ 10.00
€ 7.80
€ 9.00
€ 7.60
€ 8.00 € 7.40
€ 7.00 € 7.20
€ 6.00 € 7.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 13

EVO Payments Revisions


Chart 25 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 26 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$540 $135

$530
$130
$520
$125
$510

$500 $120

$490
$115
$480
$110
$470

$460 $105

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 27 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 28 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$0.90 $0.20
$0.80 $0.18

$0.70 $0.16
$0.14
$0.60
$0.12
$0.50
$0.10
$0.40
$0.08
$0.30
$0.06
$0.20 $0.04
$0.10 $0.02
$0.00 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 14

FIS Revisions
Chart 29 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 30 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$13,750 $3,400
$13,700
$3,350
$13,650

$13,600 $3,300

$13,550 $3,250
$13,500
$3,200
$13,450

$13,400 $3,150

$13,350
$3,100

Source: Compass Point, Factset


Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 31 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 32 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$6.80 $1.60

$6.70 $1.58

$6.60 $1.56

$6.50 $1.54

$6.40 $1.52

$6.30 $1.50

$6.20 $1.48

$6.10 $1.46

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 15

Fiserv Revisions
Chart 33 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 34 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$15,250 $3,760

$15,200 $3,740

$3,720
$15,150
$3,700
$15,100
$3,680
$15,050
$3,660
$15,000
$3,640
$14,950 $3,620

$14,900 $3,600

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 35 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 36 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$5.46 $1.29
$5.44 $1.29

$5.42 $1.28
$1.28
$5.40
$1.27
$5.38
$1.27
$5.36
$1.26
$5.34
$1.26
$5.32 $1.25
$5.30 $1.25
$5.28 $1.24

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 16

Shi4Payments Revisions
Chart 37 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 38 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$600 $120

$500 $100

$400 $80

$300 $60

$40
$200

$20
$100

$0
$0

Source: Compass Point, FacSet


Source: Compass Point, FactSet

Chart 39 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 40 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$0.90 $0.10
$0.80 $0.08
$0.70 $0.06
$0.60
$0.04
$0.50
$0.02
$0.40
$0.00
$0.30
$0.20 -$0.02

$0.10 -$0.04

$0.00 -$0.06

-$0.08

-$0.10

Source: Compass Point, FactSet Source: Compass Point, FactSet

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 17

Global Payments Revisions


Chart 41 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 42 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$7,650 $1,880

$7,600 $1,860

$7,550 $1,840

$7,500 $1,820

$7,450 $1,800

$7,400 $1,780

$7,350 $1,760

$7,300 $1,740

$7,250 $1,720

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 43 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 44 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$8.00 $1.94

$7.00 $1.92

$6.00 $1.90
$1.88
$5.00
$1.86
$4.00
$1.84
$3.00
$1.82
$2.00
$1.80
$1.00 $1.78
$0.00 $1.76

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 18

Jack Henry & Associates Revisions


Chart 45 - FY2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 46 - F4Q21 Revenue Esmates
$1,870 $448

$1,860 $446

$1,850 $444
$442
$1,840
$440
$1,830
$438
$1,820
$436
$1,810 $434
$1,800 $432
$1,790 $430

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 47 - FY2021 EPS Esmates Chart 48 - F4Q21 EPS Esmates


$4.30 $0.96

$4.25
$0.94
$4.20
$0.92
$4.15

$4.10 $0.90

$4.05
$0.88
$4.00
$0.86
$3.95

$3.90 $0.84

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 19

Mastercard Revisions
Chart 49 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 50 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$19,000 $4,450

$18,800
$4,400
$18,600

$18,400 $4,350

$18,200 $4,300
$18,000
$4,250
$17,800

$17,600 $4,200

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 51 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 52 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$9.00 $2.50

$8.80
$2.00
$8.60

$8.40 $1.50
$8.20

$8.00 $1.00

$7.80
$0.50
$7.60

$7.40 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 20

PayPal Revisions
Chart 53 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 54 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$26,000 $6,300

$25,500 $6,200

$25,000 $6,100
$6,000
$24,500
$5,900
$24,000
$5,800
$23,500
$5,700
$23,000 $5,600
$22,500 $5,500
$22,000 $5,400

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 55 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 56 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$4.80 $1.15
$4.70
$4.60 $1.10
$4.50
$4.40
$1.05
$4.30
$4.20
$1.00
$4.10
$4.00
$3.90 $0.95
$3.80
$3.70 $0.90

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 21

Silvergate Revisions
Chart 57 - 2021 BVPS Revisions Chart 58 - 2Q21 BVPS Revisions
$40 $35
$35 $30
$30
$25
$25
$20
$20
$15
$15
$10
$10

$5 $5

$0 $0

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 59 - 2021 EPS Revisions Chart 60 - 2Q21 EPS Revisions


$3.00 $0.60

$2.50 $0.50

$2.00 $0.40

$1.50 $0.30

$1.00 $0.20

$0.50 $0.10

$0.00 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 22

Square Revisions
Chart 61 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 62 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$25,000 $6,000

$5,000
$20,000

$4,000
$15,000
$3,000
$10,000
$2,000

$5,000
$1,000

$0 $0

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 63 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 64 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$1.60 $0.35

$1.40 $0.30
$1.20
$0.25
$1.00
$0.20
$0.80
$0.15
$0.60
$0.10
$0.40

$0.20 $0.05

$0.00 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 23

Q2 Holdings Revisions
Chart 65 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 66 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$498 $124
$496 $123
$494 $122
$492 $121
$490 $120
$488 $119
$486
$118
$484
$117
$482
$116
$480
$115

Source: Compass Point, Factset


Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 67 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 68 - 2Q21 EPS Esmates


$0.35 $0.09
$0.08
$0.30
$0.07
$0.25
$0.06
$0.20 $0.05

$0.15 $0.04
$0.03
$0.10
$0.02
$0.05
$0.01
$0.00 $0.00

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 24

Visa Revisions
Chart 69 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 70 - 3Q21 Revenue Esmates
$25,200 $6,200

$25,000 $6,100

$24,800 $6,000
$24,600 $5,900
$24,400
$5,800
$24,200
$5,700
$24,000
$5,600
$23,800
$5,500

Source: Compass Point, Factset


Source: Compass Point, Factset

Chart 71 - 2021 EPS Esmates Chart 72 - 3Q21 EPS Esmates


$6.20 $1.50

$6.10
$1.45

$6.00
$1.40
$5.90
$1.35
$5.80

$1.30
$5.70

$5.60 $1.25

Source: Compass Point, Factset Source: Compass Point, Factset

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 25

Valuaon & Risks


ACIW (Buy, $46 PT)

Our $46 price target represents 16.0x our 2022E adjusted EBITDA of $410M. This represents a discount to peers given the revenue
growth profile of the company. Read our most recent note on ACIW here

ADYEN (Neutral, €1900 PT)

Our €1,900 price target is primarily based on ~70x 2022E EV/EBITDA and represents a premium to payments peers. We note that Adyen
has historically traded at growth-adjusted metrics and a significant premium to payments peers given its superior growth profile. Read
more about our thoughts on Adyen here

EVOP (Buy, $35 PT)

Our $35 PT is based on a 16x mulple of our esmate of 2022E adj. EBITDA. We believe this adequately reflects the company's unique
internaonal footprint and growth opportunity. This is in-line with peers on a growth-adjusted basis Please see our most recent note
here for valuaon and risks.

FIS (Neutral, $155 PT)

Our $155 price target represents 16x our 2022E adjusted EBITDA. We note this represents a premium to peers on an absolute basis yet
is in-line with peers on a growth-adjusted basis. Read more about our thoughts on FIS here .

FISV (Buy, $145 PT)

Our $145 price target represents 17x our 2022E EBITDA. We note this represents a modest discount to GPN yet is in-line with peer,
FIS, based on our esmates. We believe this is warranted given the growth profile of the business (relavely in-line with FIS yet slightly
lower than GPN). Read more about our thoughts on FISV here .

FOUR (Neutral, $80 PT)

Our $70 PT is based on a ~30x mulple of our esmate of 2022E EV/EBITDA which represents an ~10x premium to its peers. We believe
this valuaon is reflecve of the company's growth prospects (reopening play) and a capital deployment potenal (M&A) Please see
our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.

GPN (Neutral, $220 PT) Our $220 price target represents ~18x 2022E adjusted EPS. We believe the company’s superior growth prospects
warrant a premium to its large merchant acquiring peers. Read more about our thoughts on GPN here .

JKHY (Buy, $180 PT) Our $180 price target represents 39x our 2022E adjusted EPS. We believe the growth, durability, and recurring
nature of the company’s earnings stream warrants a significant premium over its more cyclical peers. Read more about our thoughts
on JKHY here .

MA (Buy, $430 PT)

Our $430 price target represents ~40x 2022E EPS which represents to peers given the company's superior growth and margin profile.
Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.

PYPL (Buy, $290 PT)

Our $290 price target represents ~50x our FY22E EPS, which represents a premium to peers given a higher growth profile. Please see
our most recent note for valuaon and risks here .

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 26

PSFE (Buy, $19 PT)

Our $19 price target is primarily based on ~25x our 2022E EBITDA. We note this is a discount to high-growth peers (NVEI, PAYA, RPAY)
and a premium to legacy acquirers (GPN, FIS, FISV) given the growth profile of PSFE through 2022. Please see our most recent note
for valuaon and risks here .

QTWO (Buy, $130 PT)

Our $130 price target represents ~10x our 2022E revenue. Our target mulple is in line with the mean valuaon of the comparable
group of high growth SaaS companies. Please see our most recent note here for valuaons and risks.

SI (Buy, $165 PT)

Our $165 price target represents 43x 2022E EPS and a 2022 PEG of ~1.0. We note this is a premium to bank peers although we note
that Silvergate has a faster growth profile and more aracve lower-cost deposit base than peers which may also deserve a premium.
Please see our most recent note here

SQ (Neutral, $245 PT)

Our $245 price target equates to ~7.5x our 2022E EV/Revenue. We note these are consistent with peers on a growth-adjusted basis.
Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.

V (Buy, $265 PT)

Our $265 price target, ~35x 2022E EPS. We note this represents a premium to peers which is reflecve of the company's superior margin
profile and operang leverage. Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 27

Important Disclosures
Analyst Cerficaon
I, Michael Del Grosso, hereby cerfy that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securies or issues. I further cerfy that I have not received direct or indirect compensaon in exchange for expressing specific
recommendaons or views in this report.

Coverage Universe Investment Banking Relaonships


Rang Number Percent Rang Number Percent
Buy 94 62 Buy 23 24
Neutral 54 36 Neutral 5 9
Sell 3 2 Sell 0 0
Total 151 100% Total 28 100%
*Percentage of Investment Banking Clients in Coverage Universe by Rang

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest

Within the previous 12 months, Compass Point has managed a public offering of securies for the following company: Silvergate Capital
Corp..

Within the previous 12 months, Compass Point has received compensaon for investment banking services from the following company:
Silvergate Capital Corp..

During the 12-month period preceding the date of distribuon of this research report, the following company was (were) a client
(clients) of Compass Point: Silvergate Capital Corp.. The type of services provided were investment banking.

Compass Point expects to receive or intends to seek compensaon for investment banking services from the following company in the
next 3 months: Silvergate Capital Corp..

Rangs, Coverage Groups, and Views and Related Definions

The informaon and rang included in this report represent the long-term view as described more fully below. The analyst may have
different views regarding short-term trading strategies with respect to the stocks covered by the rang, opons on such stocks, and/
or other securies or financial instruments issued by the subject company(ies). Our brokers and analysts may make recommendaons
to their clients that are contrary to the recommendaons contained in this research report. Such recommendaons or investment
decisions are based on the parcular investment strategies, risk tolerances, and other investment factors of that parcular client or
affiliate. From me to me, Compass Point and its respecve directors, officers, employees, or members of their immediate families
may have a long or short posion in the securies or other financial instruments menoned in this report.

Stock Rangs System:

Buy (B): We expect the stock to outperform its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.

Neutral (N): We expect the stock to perform in line with its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.

Sell (S): We expect the stock to underperform its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.

Not Rated (NR): No rang at this me. Rang Suspended (RS): Compass Point Research has suspended the investment rang and price
target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rang or target. The previous
investment rang and price Compass Point has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC): Compass Point does not cover
this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA): The informaon is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful
(NM): The informaon is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

Global Disclaimer

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com


Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 28

The research analyst(s) named in the cerficaon above receives compensaon based upon various factors, including, but not limited to,
the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, compeve factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues generated
by Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC's investment banking acvies.

This report is based upon public informaon that Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC and the research analyst named in the
aestaon above assume to be correct.

Assumpons, opinions, forecasts, and esmates constute the research analyst’s judgment as of the date of this material and are
subject to change without noce. The research analyst’s judgments may be wrong.

Neither Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC nor its affiliates, nor the research analyst, are responsible for any errors, omissions, or
results obtained from the use of this informaon.

Past performance is not necessarily indicave of future results.

The securies and/or financial instruments menoned in this research report, and the trading strategies related thereto, may not be
suitable for all investors. You must consider your specific investment goals and objecves prior to transacng in any security or financial
instrument. Consult with your financial advisor before making any transacons or investments.

© Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC 2021. All rights reserved. Reproducon or quotaon in whole or part without permission
is forbidden.

This report constutes a compendium report (covers six or more subject companies). As such, Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC,
chooses to provide certain disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To access such disclosures, clients may email a request
to research@compasspointllc.com , or may write the Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC Research Department at Compass Point
Research & Trading, LLC, 1055 Thomas Jefferson Street NW, Suite 303, Washington DC, 20007. 202.540.7300

Michael Del Grosso | 202.534.1395 | mdelgrosso@compasspointllc.com

You might also like