Professional Documents
Culture Documents
• Modern Banking: Management sees a very long runway for growth in the MBP. Management
highlighted their breadth of product offerings as a major driver of cross-sale potenal when
working with exisng MBP clients and those looking to switch to the plaorm. Management
highlighted that lending is the next product offering coming to the MBP and expects this to
drive even further growth in the segment.
• Real me payments: Management explained their role in real-me payments as the central
orchestrator connecng and facilitang the RTP developments around the world. Highlighted
recent developments in India where RTP has reduced FX costs by ~40% and transaconal fees
by ~90% all while reducing the selement me from 3-5 days to just a few hours. Management
believes to be in the early innings of RTP developments and growth.
• Crypto: Highlighted that the recent deal with NYDIG was driven by customer request for
crypto buy/hold/sell capabilies. Currently, focused on crypto as a payment source, with
management stang "we believe [that cryptocurrencies] are just the next payment type for
us." Management claims to be well posioned from an acquirer perspecve, already working
with mulple crypto exchanges.
• Merchant: Management reiterated their confidence in their travel volume guidance provided
in Q1. UK restricon liing is having a posive impact in the region and expects the trend
to connue across Europe. Management noted that the pandemic has created a lot of
momentum around how we interact, nong the shi to QR menus and mobile ordering
capabilies in the food & beverage sector.
• API Development: Management noted that developer experience has become the biggest
change in the business cycle over the past 10 years. The company notes they are no longer
selling to just the CFO but also the CTO claiming, "we must have the tech stack to ence the
engineers."
• Decoupling from networks: Management stated, "[We are] very pleased with the volumes
we've seen in April and those have connued into May." Management reiterated their
opmism around 2021 highlighng the raised guidance across the board in 1Q21.
• Tech-enabled Channels: Management noted that the tech-enabled business segment is
orchestrated to grow in the high double-digits with more discussion coming at the company's
upcoming investors' day. Addionally, management highlighted they beat a goal set in 2018
to achieved 75% of revenue from tech-enabled sources by 2020. The company beat this
expectaon by 6-months with the pandemic accelerang the transion and affirming the
company's strategic shi towards tech-enabled plaorms.
• Google Partnership: Management discussed their recent partnership with Google highlighng
a day one benefit to the company through the Google sales team driving new business to GPN.
Addionally, the company noted that the synergies of moving legacy data centers to Google's
cloud and the expansion of Google as a customer — now one of GPN's largest — as addive
benefits of the deal.
• BNPL: On BNPL, management pointed to their presence in Asia where BNPL has existed
already as preparing the company to understand the potenal impacts of the technology in
the United States and Europe. Management noted significant growth of the product in South
America as well.
• M&A: On the conference management stated, "We're very bullish on doing more M&A" with
limited explanaon. The company pointed to their upcoming investors' day for more details.
• Compeve Environment: Management believes their shi to tech-enabled has prepared the
company to face the ever-changing compeve environment. From a segment perspecve,
the company is confident in their posion across both merchant and issuing, highlighng
a big moat and scale as GPN's compeve advantage in issuing. Business & Consumer is
the segment where GPN sees the most room for development point to their internaonal
expansion plans and B2B offerings as a dynamic way the company is staying on the "front foot"
of compeon.
PAYMENTS: Square taps Plaid to speed up ACH online. According to a press release from Square
on Thursday, the company has partnered with Plaid to allow merchants to process payments via
ACH without retaining sensive customer informaon. Today, the default payment method of
choice for online are cards, which boast higher fees than ACH, but now online merchants are
able to process ACH debits seamlessly through Square Invoices or Square Web Payments SDK.
Square ulizes a tokenized check system which when integrated with Plaid allows customers to
securely connect bank accounts for ACH payments. The press release also reports that Square is
offering fee-free refunds on ACH payments process on their plaorm in order to further ence
the use of ACH payments. Compass Take: The ulizaon of alternave payment rails such as ACH
presents a growing challenge to the incumbency, parcularly debt cards, have controlled in the
past. While ACH is not a new payment rail by a long stretch, we note its superior cost profile makes it
a compeve threat to some payment methods and parcularly in the online (or card-not-present
environment).
CRYPTO: CeFi fails during recent volality. Bloomberg reported this week on a recent downme
experience by two of the largest crypto exchanges, Coinbase and Binance. According to the
arcle, both exchange experienced temporary outages on Wednesday during a period of extreme
volality in the asset class. Crypto investors oen ulize leverage in their trading schemes
which, during extensive price drops, may result in automac liquidaons. This past week the
crypto markets experienced a significant drop in value due to various events surrounding market
senment, these inial declines were exacerbated by the liquidaon of more than $8.6B in crypto
derivaves. Bloomberg claims that the backend infrastructure of many crypto exchanges may
not be sufficient to support the wide-spread growth experienced by the asset class over the
past year. The congeson experienced by these centralized exchanges have driven more investors
onto decentralized exchanges (DEXs) that ulize smart contract technology to facilitate peer-to-
peer transacons, removing the potenal shutdowns experienced by the likes of Coinbase and
Binance. Compass Take: We view the exchange failures as less of a centralizaon problem and
more of a payment rail problem. The new age technology that is cryptocurrencies and blockchain
are inherently hindered by the legacy payment rails facilitang a majority of the real money
movement, especially on and off centralized exchanges. Generally, we believe that as the crypto
ecosystem matures, the infrastructure will mature alongside resulng in fewer exchange outages.
That said, the widespread failure of several centralized crypto exchanges on Wednesday may only
fuel the narrave that DeFi exchanges and AMMs are perhaps a more useful alternave.
CRYPTO: BlockFi pays outsized reward payments. According to a report from Coindesk, crypto
lending plaorm BlockFi incorrectly deposited various amounts of BTC into users accounts over
the past week. As part of an apparent promoon encouraging users to trade a certain level of USD
on the plaorm resulted in mulple incorrect transfers of BTC, up to 700BTC (or ~$28.5M as of
May 20th) in some cases. Many users, either knowingly or not, transferred these rewards out of
BlockFi essenally making the transacon irreversible. BlockFi in response issued mulple emails
to customers demanding the return of said BTC, threatening legal acon should the demand not
be met. According to the arcle, many users were offered ~$1000 worth of GUSD (Gemini's nave
stablecoin) for the inconvenience. Compass Take: Irreversibility of transacons is an inherent risk
associated with cryptocurrencies. While sll on BlockFi's plaorm the company was able to reverse
these transacons, however, should a user have been able to move the incorrectly dispersed crypto
off of BlockFi, the company would have no way of reclaiming their lost assets. The arcle did not
report if all the lost BTC was returned or if the company will be pursuing any legal acon against
their customers. Should the company pursue legal acon, the developments of such a case could
be crucial in seng legal precedent as it relates to incorrect crypto transacon.
PAYMENTS: Square takes aim at restaurant tech. According to a report by PYMNTS.com, Square
has introduced Square KDS as a stand-alone product suite. Previously, Square's Kitchen Display
System (KDS) was only available through a premium bundled plan Restaurant Plus, however,
now the POS system is available as a separate product. Square believes this will make it easier
for restaurants to enter the Square ecosystem, building a growing reliance on the company's
technology. Restaurant Tech ("ResTech") is an increasingly compeve space with incumbents
such as Toast launching a suite of new contactless services and ResTech SaaS startup Olo who
recently filed their S-1 in March all looking to claim their slice of the industry. Compass Take: We
view Square's renewed introducon into the restaurant vercal to be a much-needed compeve
element to drive innovaon and to compete with exisng pricing models. The redesign of Square's
food and beverage strategy is a welcomed diversificaon of customer focus with the potenal to
expand its reach across the micromerchant / single-locaon operators into larger more enterprise-
level corporaons.
Recent Research
Thoughts on Silvergate, Stablecoins, and the Selloff - 51921
PSFE 1Q21 Takeaways: Discrete Impacts to Q1; Long-Term Thesis Enhanced & Guidance
Reiterated - 51121
FOUR 1Q21 Takeaways: Volumes Prepare for Orbit; Take Rates Prepare for Reentry - 5621
SQ 1Q21 Takeaways: Strong Beat Across the Board; Cash App Connues to Benefit from Smulus
- 5621
QTWO 1Q21 Takeaways: Solid Start to '21; Eyes on 2H21 Bookings - 5621
EVOP 1Q21 Takeaways: Solid Start to '21; Posive Outlook for European Volumes this Summer
- 5621
PYPL 1Q21 Takeaways: Turn Up the Volume, Here Come the Beats - 5621
GPN 1Q21 Takeaways: Revenue Beat on US Recovery & Smulus Impacts - 5421
MA 1Q21: Solid Start to 2021 on Revenue Beat yet Expense Guide Tempers Enthusiasm;
Reopening on Deck for 2H21 - 42821
V F2Q21 Takeaways: Strong Beat Driven by Domesc Volumes; Potenal for Cross-Border
Recovery into Summer - 42821
FISV 1Q21 Takeaways: Clover and Carat Buoy Merchant Results - 42721
Payments Pulse Week 16: More Earnings on Deck; Crypto on Venmo; Diem Any Day Now? -
42421
Industry Comp
Catalyst Calendar
Looking ahead. We are headed into the heat of conference
season with mulple competor conferences hosted over the
next few weeks. We are hosng our own conference June 24th
focusing on blockchain and crypto, please contact your sales
person for more informaon
20.0%
400.0%
10.0%
300.0%
0.0%
200.0%
-10.0%
100.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
-30.0%
-40.0% -100.0%
Chart 3 - YoY Change in SMB Sales Volume and Chart 4 - US First Spend Data
Transaons (%) 30.0%
100.0% 20.0%
80.0% 10.0%
60.0% 0.0%
40.0% -10.0%
20.0% -20.0%
0.0% -30.0%
-20.0% -40.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jul-20
May-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
May-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Sep-19
Jan-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Feb-20
Apr-20
Mar-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Oct-19
Oct-20
-60.0%
Chart 5 - US Census New Business Formaons (YoY Chart 6 - ABI Bankruptcy Fillings
Growth) 747
722
685
140% 125% 643 654
631
609
120% 106% 530 549 530 560 528
550
487 479
100% 449 444 450 449
424 423 420 420
392 394 384
80% 366
60% 287
40%
20%
0%
Jul-19
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jul-20
Apr-19
Mar-21
Apr-21
Jan-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
May-20
Nov-20
Mar-19
May-19
Dec-20
Feb-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Sep-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Oct-19
-20%
-38%
-40%
-60%
1/11
3/21
3/28
4/4
4/11
4/18
4/25
5/2
7/11
7/18
7/25
8/1
8/8
8/15
8/22
10/31
11/7
11/14
11/21
11/28
12/5
12/12
12/19
2/27
3/6
3/13
3/20
3/27
4/3
4/10
1/18
1/25
2/1
2/8
2/15
2/22
2/29
3/7
3/14
5/9
5/16
5/23
5/30
6/6
6/13
6/20
6/27
7/4
8/29
9/5
9/12
9/19
9/26
10/3
10/10
10/17
10/24
12/26
1/2
1/9
1/16
1/23
1/30
2/6
2/13
2/20
4/17
4/24
5/1
5/8
Industry Valuaon
Chart 7 - Industry 2021 P/E (CY) Chart 8 - Industry 2021 EV/EBITDA (CY)
448x 229x
180x
273x
208x 200x
134x 95x
110x
128x
95x 88x 67x
65x
43x 40x 35x
34x 32x 30x 29x 37x 33x
21x 17x 27x 26x
19x 17x 16x 15x 14x
13x 13x
Chart 11 - Industry EV/Revenue by Growth - 2021 Chart 12 - Industry EV/Revenue by Revenue Growth -
60.0x 2022
ADYEN-NL
45.0x
ADYEN-NL
50.0x 40.0x
35.0x
40.0x 30.0x
25.0x
SI
30.0x SI 20.0x
V
15.0x
V
QTWO
PYPL
20.0x 10.0x GPN FOUR
FIS
FISV
JKHY
PSFEEVOP SQ
ACIW
5.0x
QTWO
PYPL
FOUR
GPN MA
10.0x FIS 0.0x
JKHY FISV
EVOP SQ 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
ACIW PSFE
MA
0.0x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Source: Compass Point, Factset
Industry Performance
Chart 13 - Industry WTD Performance Chart 14 - Industry MTD Performance
13% 5%
10%
8%
8%
-1% -1%
-2% -2%
-3% -3%
2% -4% -4% -4%
1% 1% -5%
0% 0% 0%
18%
11%
7% 7% 5%
-3% 4% 4% 3% 3%
-4% -4% 0%
-6%
-3% -4%
-11% -12% -8% -10%
-21%
$1,500 $340
$330
$1,450
$320
$1,400
$310
$1,350
$300
$1,300
$290
$1,250 $280
$1,200 $270
Adyen Revisions
Chart 21 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 22 - 1H21 Revenue Esmates
€ 980 € 560
€ 550
€ 960
€ 540
€ 940 € 530
€ 920 € 520
€ 510
€ 900 € 500
€ 880 € 490
€ 480
€ 860
€ 470
€ 840 € 460
€ 13.00 € 8.60
€ 8.40
€ 12.00
€ 8.20
€ 11.00
€ 8.00
€ 10.00
€ 7.80
€ 9.00
€ 7.60
€ 8.00 € 7.40
€ 7.00 € 7.20
€ 6.00 € 7.00
$530
$130
$520
$125
$510
$500 $120
$490
$115
$480
$110
$470
$460 $105
$0.70 $0.16
$0.14
$0.60
$0.12
$0.50
$0.10
$0.40
$0.08
$0.30
$0.06
$0.20 $0.04
$0.10 $0.02
$0.00 $0.00
FIS Revisions
Chart 29 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 30 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$13,750 $3,400
$13,700
$3,350
$13,650
$13,600 $3,300
$13,550 $3,250
$13,500
$3,200
$13,450
$13,400 $3,150
$13,350
$3,100
$6.70 $1.58
$6.60 $1.56
$6.50 $1.54
$6.40 $1.52
$6.30 $1.50
$6.20 $1.48
$6.10 $1.46
Fiserv Revisions
Chart 33 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 34 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$15,250 $3,760
$15,200 $3,740
$3,720
$15,150
$3,700
$15,100
$3,680
$15,050
$3,660
$15,000
$3,640
$14,950 $3,620
$14,900 $3,600
$5.42 $1.28
$1.28
$5.40
$1.27
$5.38
$1.27
$5.36
$1.26
$5.34
$1.26
$5.32 $1.25
$5.30 $1.25
$5.28 $1.24
Shi4Payments Revisions
Chart 37 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 38 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$600 $120
$500 $100
$400 $80
$300 $60
$40
$200
$20
$100
$0
$0
$0.10 -$0.04
$0.00 -$0.06
-$0.08
-$0.10
$7,600 $1,860
$7,550 $1,840
$7,500 $1,820
$7,450 $1,800
$7,400 $1,780
$7,350 $1,760
$7,300 $1,740
$7,250 $1,720
$7.00 $1.92
$6.00 $1.90
$1.88
$5.00
$1.86
$4.00
$1.84
$3.00
$1.82
$2.00
$1.80
$1.00 $1.78
$0.00 $1.76
$1,860 $446
$1,850 $444
$442
$1,840
$440
$1,830
$438
$1,820
$436
$1,810 $434
$1,800 $432
$1,790 $430
$4.25
$0.94
$4.20
$0.92
$4.15
$4.10 $0.90
$4.05
$0.88
$4.00
$0.86
$3.95
$3.90 $0.84
Mastercard Revisions
Chart 49 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 50 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$19,000 $4,450
$18,800
$4,400
$18,600
$18,400 $4,350
$18,200 $4,300
$18,000
$4,250
$17,800
$17,600 $4,200
$8.80
$2.00
$8.60
$8.40 $1.50
$8.20
$8.00 $1.00
$7.80
$0.50
$7.60
$7.40 $0.00
PayPal Revisions
Chart 53 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 54 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$26,000 $6,300
$25,500 $6,200
$25,000 $6,100
$6,000
$24,500
$5,900
$24,000
$5,800
$23,500
$5,700
$23,000 $5,600
$22,500 $5,500
$22,000 $5,400
Silvergate Revisions
Chart 57 - 2021 BVPS Revisions Chart 58 - 2Q21 BVPS Revisions
$40 $35
$35 $30
$30
$25
$25
$20
$20
$15
$15
$10
$10
$5 $5
$0 $0
$2.50 $0.50
$2.00 $0.40
$1.50 $0.30
$1.00 $0.20
$0.50 $0.10
$0.00 $0.00
Square Revisions
Chart 61 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 62 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$25,000 $6,000
$5,000
$20,000
$4,000
$15,000
$3,000
$10,000
$2,000
$5,000
$1,000
$0 $0
$1.40 $0.30
$1.20
$0.25
$1.00
$0.20
$0.80
$0.15
$0.60
$0.10
$0.40
$0.20 $0.05
$0.00 $0.00
Q2 Holdings Revisions
Chart 65 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 66 - 2Q21 Revenue Esmates
$498 $124
$496 $123
$494 $122
$492 $121
$490 $120
$488 $119
$486
$118
$484
$117
$482
$116
$480
$115
$0.15 $0.04
$0.03
$0.10
$0.02
$0.05
$0.01
$0.00 $0.00
Visa Revisions
Chart 69 - 2021 Revenue Esmates Chart 70 - 3Q21 Revenue Esmates
$25,200 $6,200
$25,000 $6,100
$24,800 $6,000
$24,600 $5,900
$24,400
$5,800
$24,200
$5,700
$24,000
$5,600
$23,800
$5,500
$6.10
$1.45
$6.00
$1.40
$5.90
$1.35
$5.80
$1.30
$5.70
$5.60 $1.25
Our $46 price target represents 16.0x our 2022E adjusted EBITDA of $410M. This represents a discount to peers given the revenue
growth profile of the company. Read our most recent note on ACIW here
Our €1,900 price target is primarily based on ~70x 2022E EV/EBITDA and represents a premium to payments peers. We note that Adyen
has historically traded at growth-adjusted metrics and a significant premium to payments peers given its superior growth profile. Read
more about our thoughts on Adyen here
Our $35 PT is based on a 16x mulple of our esmate of 2022E adj. EBITDA. We believe this adequately reflects the company's unique
internaonal footprint and growth opportunity. This is in-line with peers on a growth-adjusted basis Please see our most recent note
here for valuaon and risks.
Our $155 price target represents 16x our 2022E adjusted EBITDA. We note this represents a premium to peers on an absolute basis yet
is in-line with peers on a growth-adjusted basis. Read more about our thoughts on FIS here .
Our $145 price target represents 17x our 2022E EBITDA. We note this represents a modest discount to GPN yet is in-line with peer,
FIS, based on our esmates. We believe this is warranted given the growth profile of the business (relavely in-line with FIS yet slightly
lower than GPN). Read more about our thoughts on FISV here .
Our $70 PT is based on a ~30x mulple of our esmate of 2022E EV/EBITDA which represents an ~10x premium to its peers. We believe
this valuaon is reflecve of the company's growth prospects (reopening play) and a capital deployment potenal (M&A) Please see
our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.
GPN (Neutral, $220 PT) Our $220 price target represents ~18x 2022E adjusted EPS. We believe the company’s superior growth prospects
warrant a premium to its large merchant acquiring peers. Read more about our thoughts on GPN here .
JKHY (Buy, $180 PT) Our $180 price target represents 39x our 2022E adjusted EPS. We believe the growth, durability, and recurring
nature of the company’s earnings stream warrants a significant premium over its more cyclical peers. Read more about our thoughts
on JKHY here .
Our $430 price target represents ~40x 2022E EPS which represents to peers given the company's superior growth and margin profile.
Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.
Our $290 price target represents ~50x our FY22E EPS, which represents a premium to peers given a higher growth profile. Please see
our most recent note for valuaon and risks here .
Our $19 price target is primarily based on ~25x our 2022E EBITDA. We note this is a discount to high-growth peers (NVEI, PAYA, RPAY)
and a premium to legacy acquirers (GPN, FIS, FISV) given the growth profile of PSFE through 2022. Please see our most recent note
for valuaon and risks here .
Our $130 price target represents ~10x our 2022E revenue. Our target mulple is in line with the mean valuaon of the comparable
group of high growth SaaS companies. Please see our most recent note here for valuaons and risks.
Our $165 price target represents 43x 2022E EPS and a 2022 PEG of ~1.0. We note this is a premium to bank peers although we note
that Silvergate has a faster growth profile and more aracve lower-cost deposit base than peers which may also deserve a premium.
Please see our most recent note here
Our $245 price target equates to ~7.5x our 2022E EV/Revenue. We note these are consistent with peers on a growth-adjusted basis.
Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.
Our $265 price target, ~35x 2022E EPS. We note this represents a premium to peers which is reflecve of the company's superior margin
profile and operang leverage. Please see our most recent note here for valuaon and risks.
Important Disclosures
Analyst Cerficaon
I, Michael Del Grosso, hereby cerfy that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the
subject securies or issues. I further cerfy that I have not received direct or indirect compensaon in exchange for expressing specific
recommendaons or views in this report.
Within the previous 12 months, Compass Point has managed a public offering of securies for the following company: Silvergate Capital
Corp..
Within the previous 12 months, Compass Point has received compensaon for investment banking services from the following company:
Silvergate Capital Corp..
During the 12-month period preceding the date of distribuon of this research report, the following company was (were) a client
(clients) of Compass Point: Silvergate Capital Corp.. The type of services provided were investment banking.
Compass Point expects to receive or intends to seek compensaon for investment banking services from the following company in the
next 3 months: Silvergate Capital Corp..
The informaon and rang included in this report represent the long-term view as described more fully below. The analyst may have
different views regarding short-term trading strategies with respect to the stocks covered by the rang, opons on such stocks, and/
or other securies or financial instruments issued by the subject company(ies). Our brokers and analysts may make recommendaons
to their clients that are contrary to the recommendaons contained in this research report. Such recommendaons or investment
decisions are based on the parcular investment strategies, risk tolerances, and other investment factors of that parcular client or
affiliate. From me to me, Compass Point and its respecve directors, officers, employees, or members of their immediate families
may have a long or short posion in the securies or other financial instruments menoned in this report.
Buy (B): We expect the stock to outperform its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N): We expect the stock to perform in line with its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.
Sell (S): We expect the stock to underperform its peers on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 months.
Not Rated (NR): No rang at this me. Rang Suspended (RS): Compass Point Research has suspended the investment rang and price
target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rang or target. The previous
investment rang and price Compass Point has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC): Compass Point does not cover
this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA): The informaon is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful
(NM): The informaon is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.
Global Disclaimer
The research analyst(s) named in the cerficaon above receives compensaon based upon various factors, including, but not limited to,
the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, compeve factors, and overall firm revenues, which include revenues generated
by Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC's investment banking acvies.
This report is based upon public informaon that Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC and the research analyst named in the
aestaon above assume to be correct.
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