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Jus 870 tc ITHRAA Publishing and Distribution UB GROUP ciS,8 aol www.ithraajo.com (al) {dol Sf PLE peg pe SH cgi tng (epee! 5lponal aban Ylg sls dpdteg.. afte edual leg... ALLAN cilie lst JU. cagua pl Ap Le) Aunt! rie) cotys Mayans gitucae Agblally Aouatls Lovely Lapneas alia yg does Ut All a gdg ... Laat! Blyotl Ais) att gh aan tt petadl fai calune 2 alii egtan .. Lulat! Ghuslettl 2 gills eleLalty Epalall tases 31 see gS Acknowledgments Beha gia l Cee gual gS CAL etl ae phy Sat Tepblel heli AALeitly LSU Ap pal Balt le Baadaiie nlp slant SCANS Lele Capt GN pclae ltt JiLuyy Sl yg! oul - apmall~ Kadagaill aglall deal Dips inde Glpall- dnalell shady Ales Olagaall- poland Laake, Glyall- shady deal Glyall - Gla oDhyySo Anal Bal: cayeill Reale celal ge tue asl sul tye Guild JLT. 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Lys Sl andl Hyalbaall 5 ybLRL Jalen * Lgpcne Ela adl pas) Ge Egle God Gilly JleeSU (B,) Sees he = E Ry Re ) Bo ey rol eae by Lec SU dyoltai!l ¢yboLiet! sydle CER Rp) (Ggull Splolee 3gLe) 3 yboLecL! peur Bu Slee SU tyalaill 3 ploleall Ly falas Jans lined Lllawisl loge stl ped g3pe) oles puna Caley tg slate! le cogllall Skull RR = Ry+ (ERy— R) By Ret a OLS RySntl Go Cle Gp llall shell Jul Glial gg eay Louie Lal Gyaltal pb Lol! sgdle po chpeill (de oyg Sod 2 Mall gpbLell sydLe EyaUladll SIU) splay < Sloc SU eal spb! oy0 95 ll (D1) i= Po + Or @, = (Ru — Rr) By G-) SL! Jane howe 2 detec (CAPM) 1 Tage) Lakes mane (55 tot RSS Ge le Colla! R(ROE) = Ry+(ERy—R) By :Model Graphicalg sei itis! JS201.5 aS tyes HBleei pl cilagegll peat chgeil Shall Jeol! ote Gilley dabei (1-1) Jena (Security Market Line, SML) jletiu¥! 35.0 gogresll gg AU Gas Ca allan Oleg all puted Bp add Ll yy alee 29 jpall pad Leip cipllall SL Jone fens! eal SL LM G1) Jens (SML) yLetis} Sgau dad (CAPM) LS ila! Ja) tla! Jas SME. caplet Bey ByloL Sl SyShe ERM =. Syblbe WW gaye3 all Jane dosage Gpuall dn] Ry =.050 I Lt Jae iplolall ga 15 2 2.5 (Bbw dee 0 05 1 (1) gotens (By) Sganl! Ltda Lig febee oly (1-1) Sead ne ons Ged! Udo SEM OLS of J GUS 2 Cull sgezgeeaie ste daly Glades Gola Lgliae gS) Lgundi ae (Covariance of Market Portfolio) Abad Lig Lalas GL cpus! Ise (Variance of Market Portfolio) Spel pe ebb SLAY queue aly (1) golees Letts g-2 (By) Gout! 2A By =COV (Ry Ruy) = Rye =O Ry) ORy=1 G@-) sexmcermoce CBI soso pall alanis allay esol! laaLed Udall Ls Jl aad! Bagliie Ule go pla! ASL Joes gly Lasi Jee dll pe cn Less SploLeella delat SLAM Gye co uslill glee! anny gt! Laas abel 1318 Lagi pereee yucaally opllall SL Lisle Vine alia SJL ZeeLbaul Sgsegll he ol cle Jay alts Lb (piso) cela cna agaegh Lay alee Glee FI biglens opp apeghl UT lal Shall Janney dott Se ILA ge spl 5a! Jee Ld Caml) olen agepall Lay Jalan gles f3! Lei (RY) Spell Sybolee SY (ERy) Gpeall Uadnd ad. : slgenii Uaind! 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SL! fuse: Realized Rate of ROE = Total Performance AU ofa * cell oat = eS | Total Performance = Operating Performance x Financial Performance (AL Aad hata! 628 = Qeeoltl go le sHLall gif EBIT D+E Sg bets! he SLA! June = cl ela 51 eaaat AL 3,139 Sadall cslubea!l aud * LY dad Ih days = SLU elt D+E 2 De =, dete - uraattiins E fuel > D+E NI Financial Performance E x EBIT NE / = y dagpeatl 9 551A JS SLA / JR Bao = ha al gbaall dad EBIT Financial Performance = D+E/E x NI/ EBIT sExpected Rate of ROE AgZalll Go gle pgill willl Jee 2 Cag SSL go Bghy Gt) ASL ge Lasalle Ql! ASL Jane ASLall Jans Layee LIU S129! wea elas sei Y! lie aude Jorma! Spall Go le apa aL Janes ge 418 ie Salt! Go ule bei! cus 2 AL Len! aay Ash I alg oy thea! Goa Kael Go cle gb sill Shall Jee ony ae ge 5p lel Ging Gill betes Byatt! 3> cle pla sill! Jurors Lales slojug RAUL! Lal Ly Quel Go le GBI tle! Joes thy Jovee Bolay JI Labl pH 3aLy5 a5 CBs ating SL Leos! 2 csale3l gl p+ (Optimal Leverage) GEL LadLpI! Gig eat! 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Jes cures dle y (Py) Slee SU yoLbaill iplolett sydbat oo 33> a all Laline Sploliell Gye SLI lee! le Slat Juul faglne Seal! Go ipl s5LaST Jone gga ping [dag (Pu) JleeSL tye! spol) 2ydte cesta (5) Lat Zell Go ple Gop lal ALA Jones gs he ite. Byes Lt Cualill spl atl agdle Gis siaielS IU Jeol! 2 QIU Leal t! dypblLatl apdle quad ld wie 9 (Pp GIL) dyelaill sp bLall igdha ao55 Kgellaill sols y: SlocSU Quella) soled 3gal Fugline (D,) tyelal! Joes Oly QIU spol Al) 0 Lei] syle ee Joni dea sll sLadle IU! BS Raced! IL Leal sughjae Allo pe Lesa! Go cle Gigllall sila! Seg pM Feud HUN Jeol! (Ke) Atal! Jape! Lakes Hysaikt Go le cigllall Sel! Jase Jolery Soe pany Gell Laval! giligsbtoly nd Logie ee Glue tye gla ut Be he pla SLU Jes coBgll Gadd 2 glee Lal! Jugal Cale 2 pabieall ga (CAPM) Qibevigl! clsgegll ead cage) of Ulleg. iyeall! repel [kgs Gel aall Sed of US hay Lables eiltiall age! Labs Glas Eplnd AN abba! fogatll Liles Lea tals ot 2 cpulls cundipe ce pes sgily Lege ge aeelll Go. cle caplet! sill Jase Ky =R (ROE) «Ry + (ER — Re) By Be le Beil SL! Jee cys call Jo le aSLall Juul! a cans Sei gS! LA! TUN fea | yatentd GAY okays! Gos bea bell ell! cnlaall on Gos By cle! pall shally Sly 3p tot! algal dade! 2555 Jg¥) ual aang (XYZ) 25 BIR) Gaal Jak pe alll oobi 9 ij ot te Hale lie tgp Locog Rm Spell Ubaant Gaeitt sila} Year Xyz Rj% Market Return Rm% 2001 4 2 2002 8 8 2003 7 10 2004 8 uu 2005 2 2 2006 3 13 2007 6 12 2008 10 15 2009 a 18 FM abou cigltally -Systematic Risk 4eLlaill abelian. 2.Buligs Jalee 1 CV Rj Galil oles 5 ZyeLAiDUs! aplolati.¢ Total Risk ules} oploLict! 3 sJeul Yer | | aim) | amy | am | cumetm | GmeRay | cyERxReete wor [os | 90s] 0001s | aan] oust] —aoisiee ora a a Ta a Tae nat | eas | 0am | aamnes | aa] aon] aon Ta “oer | ea |B oa Taaoiae CA Tas | 288 eames [as] 0s | maar oa aor | eae | none | anonase oe | oom ‘anomnae a a a a a a a aa soins 57 Tass Ton 35 Laat Ag 3138 ERj= >) Ri/n = 0.49 / 9 = 0.054 ERm= Rm /n ml = 0,097/9 = 0.108 G° Rm or Var Rm = )(Rm — ERm)? / 2-1 = 0.024956/9-1 = 0.0031195, Cov{Rj,Rm) = 0.004288/ 8 = 0.000536 1- Bu = Cov (Rj.Rm) /O'Rm = 0,0005360 / 0.0031195 = 0.0172 2-Systematic Risk= (Bu)? x Var Rm = (0.0172) (0.0172) (0.003195) =0,0000009 3-Total Risk (Var Rj) = (Rj -ERj) / 2-4 = 0.019624 / 9-1 =0,0024953 4- Unsystematic Risk= Total Risk — Systematic Risk =0.0024953-0.0000009 =0.002494 5- CV=6 Rj /ERj =0.0495277 /0.054 =.9 Arbitrage Pricing Theory, APT qm yl! pautill Ayptas~ 5-1 gail Lasly agede 1 Fapaill gf Laplaill ge Ubdatl Ryle 2 eam sill OST Ball sla! putas Zaye dgle Glas Silly tage gh! le ASL! ued of el sal! 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[DLs Quay Efficient Frontier Ugleod gustan (all SybL atl syteues aliads gill JSLall Juice as pe dhol Cheenti y Cnr sLEaNl J ope pun So ody Be gall Uda! cl 2 hes Letuled of MY Lyall Leal ys Le Bala bot petaad elu! Cyst Ubadad! dy pbai cais by) Liddy igo i Quel Sle gal Bip al Olgas Gly Le Lagu deg Cytol LAL La pal 25-4 g (Capital Market Line, CML) SUM gal) Gps da Lt igpla__49 (Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM) cilog— pl! ux 13 (Arbitrage Pricing Theory, APT) > pll_ px all iversification and Portfolio Risk Aladolt dploloweg augicit| 2-2 Naive :Naive Diversification dagam! gag! 1 Se Belge Cue Lygleate Coheatay pats Lette Uae eugill gen (Lgi poled Lutide) A5lgeSl HLiglhs ye Sa Leciey Laliell LIL) Ble¥l Qe (Wipe Legit! 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Usual! 2 Usa! tle of Gyuall Uesall Lybi coy Joetl Mola Comal Udall Spboline Gf Uf «dtadeeall Sigeatl GL! SLs seis Y Abdel ible Vand oly Lea GWU Lg SLOLAI spol! ales shi culate ety Jp Udall eee fal} le pees Jee 408 coeds Lelong Abaall 2 AYU Gly alike lye ou L,Y! 200 ga Ligeall Aba! Ld Hey. quail pe ARRATM SuSLaN Cisl5 Lele Cop Lay Las lgad daa ase AY RA Gul al Lagdl Laby LIES LSLe Lyg La Le 135 20 (ya Uigcae Uadne Gylde lye 10 lade Que Lug peal DU) sual Kyat gd el Uauodl Ueda 2585 of Ge eis oles LAT YY eGhghewe aT Jf Le bploLiee adds CAN GAL BL yg ne A yleaNl spol atl yeas 2 ha Qupllll ppb ge Lypage deals coord cll, a polled ELEM Soll cgnergs J] ayaa TILL GLI dale eld BASU SlyaV Coe Guu! satel of ete Ll yes oa?) ual IDL gol! gi Halle 285g 20 ga Leilagians Uf QyollaiDU spb Latl a ady ely Usa! ENGL A gage Gale Slag] 8 oe Undone 69 95 of OST Gpyy WH si LB UMLs Bigg 15 2 gene Udall ygSo3 Lande Teel! syblAtl let (eel green cole 35 ale yo dS! Seat SLL gn bal wD on sSytematic ala plas! Aa Saat rl bay alaes ely alia Jats Ratt Sy pL sy tame gil Zeal SyLALAL! cy ejdt ull is Un Systematic Risk {yall att! Jaa ety) Brigham, 1886: 170) gag Ya ay ily Ly ae Resacll allt 3191 ee al] eg Le aad yg ST oy JIS Deel sy bL AM Cee BB) 15 J] 12 pe Ud es gle I AL & 291 Heol LDN 5 pol OLAS sali of er ae SN eae ct eel lees eectyy Lull pS Bh oly RLe WB yy MLL LSg eagttll Ge Uda (FbLALI wee) aly gp ST weoyy Lay Aadad) 2 Lege 16 II 8 dye SLES | as Jug Dh eli sie ULISg cugiill pe Legll Shpall Gag Luawball oLuljall Lady Alle 23915 J] 12 Gps Uigeae Ubins 2 bial exe 33h} erede Japs ge ail Y] Apel AOU! @ bold! yoguasl sleg Lg plalne jadi 2 BLA 990 (ne Unda Eplalne Ga85S case Sul! Old egdSall gus! BU gVLy sw O13 of ple Titel! eyalall pe; Cy Lailse Taal ys 92 Catia ldl Sas gf Lead peru! pag BSL ogee 2 a GT ey Ueda! Lb! 2 i ba paie ile olga DAILY Trade isles Juaal J] Jguogll aity epieall argii!l Bye By clas spbolatly SploLnll Guy dyes Uslye Lis p65 Losin’ 5 pboletly SLU! ony — off (Glgiwe bal 2 Unsoll Eph bee ys605 OF sre pcall Ge auld Lally Efficient Portfolio Construction Models 844831 Wadoxt! elis ¢ale 3-2 sHarry Markowitz Model 1952 igiaybe Gage) -1 ‘Two —Risky-Asset Efficient Portfolio iplad guage gl 5pacaIl Uaanl! Securities Analysi , Expectations CilaSgifl Ait Blyg¥t Gatos -1-1 Co OB Unde le dapat uopily ables Gisele la) wat Gul aL a! le Guy adel) ods ple Gab Leg cup bd Gurpege Be gdeall AGM clay Sulee Gh crag 2p SSI tage oll ye uuall ye Ope RMU Bl als La ps ag Soh LM ccna oJ] eu ZBUY Bly! Hee Gol eh et Ula pl odiiag (oLedsill) Aba Uy AS! Le J) ola as L gil pies y9-Saiy Security Analysts BLAM cls Coles ne ty RSS ALA! oly Ul pe 8 SL a ve 2336 abLall 25 St Junall Sep Acotl BSL AL Ly Old UUs. 5epa2a!! Ladle! «Lis Portfolios Managers ipeluuag US |e oe +Covariance and Correlation doliy¥1y gglcit! 1 Two Risky Assets 3pbolive 93 ga yletiunY 5 plolses ild dladee Guy Sout Hadad Spblae Loiaiciloge gl Wilpal asi Lol Leo aga oy) aes ated Sparel yl Ligeall olga gl! ity Cy LoL yMl Lalas te Tiglaah Qala ti Gleb ELS yest a dane ll gy lueee Sh Boom ;Lasjig« Normal Growth galtel s (2-2) Sqtem Stock seeamiy | BE ace Squared eum | MPT | Deviation [onal [= Nonna | +12 a 1 Boom | 428 a7 239 3 10 100 Expected Return V3(-7 + 12 + 28) = 11% 1/3(417 +7-3) = 7% | Variancel/3(324 + 1 + 289)=204.7 __—|_1/3(100+ 0+ 100) = 66.7_| Standard Deviation 204.7 =14. 66.7 = 8.2% ptgagll ns Se Absdeecll SpbLanlly aSLal Gatliad ge fale gi! Kua Quapagll oe LES aBlgel Ogio! Jaall po Asal! les tially age Laplace bine Jenks oly yess GLEAN 2 Legis Lent LAS! os Spla _SUIA ae 2 Le Ge 250 Of pias Nas Lege Jal ppl Ble QHBli Syste 2 pelts ate 1509 caguell 2 pettus Risky Portfolio apes le pcb gs hinell ous LEat uagegll tile Jane LeLd gs Ueda) reply Less ago 2 Uda! ale JL Protfolio Return in Recession = 0.5 x (-79%) + 0.50 x 17%=5% II FELS Yn gy yhes LSS ody ll ASLAN oY Cr (3-2) Jgaally Behl ASL Jad Link esl tye Haieeald @ Spill a SLA! Joes BL SOY Ge BE SLT Lagglay ge Gity Gyleall BL OV yc Quag egal! roasge all (pe SSI is lual! 2a Mat Syed oil] ual BDJgae Uadally Quagegll wile Juuae Scenario Probability | Stock | Bond | Portfolio Return Recession 13 ‘Normal v3 Boom: 1/3 Expected Return, Variance Standard Deviation 2 SSS gall ge Sylanll BL aol a GT GD Jp 2 has plates Leal Les da agie gf QByihl BLA ge aly geal ou betiaall Ge eal glue B28 daeagtll pe eigen glued BL asl pas OE A Cuapegll Wes ilse Cotes FCe ge Ope GLU le agi! Leg daeegll ge sajy Cuagerghl aot Obes I3T tle sey QiLill yc Leglasay (4-2) Jpaedl nag ag cosll glue 2 JEM Jue gle dlaws ye Ja SV Bhat Se Lely 183 (Cab gitl Leal) Alay pe La egeel! ile gta 2g Soy NB BL as @ 3b gla (ay. 40 ~ agi 4308 Ge Ue M42 Jgaedl 2 wd sgaall Z Crys 9 Lang (180 -=10*18 -) 50 4-2) Sade sal! sBlseg egaull le dpe ouleill Stock Bond ke Deviation | pecoe | Dewation | pop arn ate o oduct of Scenario from Expected from Expected Rete of Return Deviation Return Return Recession | 7% "18% ae 0% “80 Normal | 2 a 70 3 Boom | 28 a7 0 170 Covariance = Average of product of deviations = 1/3 » (- 180 + 0 ~ 170) = -116.7 cov iance Correlation coefficient = p = ——————— o@ Stock *O bond 116.7 © 14.3x8.2 pled Oa sge gh! dablos EDU tel yalt 2 eEL jg sh daaudy cw partly Id pep spell (Os) duud of paral Sally a a S(I-W,) 50 Rallye Wesel et jay att petal Lelgatl Lesrad All Liesl! yailia ed eget 2 jbo! 39 png We tot SD =-0.99 ob Shee! oob5 Ml Jad! gs Lda tl L5le Jee oth Buelant ole Sljet Gusing Lp Sigel! (1-2) TP = Waly + WF, SSL Val aig Jaa ge Leaded A Beil Lal June 2 SEU sce! old SgSoll ol Lea SU debit (22) baat! B Lgiljgh cus E(rp)= ws E(rs)+ w,£(r,) 25 upbl Guage gh! Uadeee lye Gul ZULU 5ucLall (3-2) 3 = (son) +(ns) + 200s ore, Pas i plas! (uogeghl dadlot jploleetly wilall os Wall 3 (ADS 9h ogee 96212 ge ine glue Lp oc oly OM otal BLS felee pio coliny gully bal sige Cn LLG oly Gayzaly 13 Independently Uguaes (pe Uiiws Willy egeull silse iy ies peo 2 150 SN JLed! Jas oS cata 2 710058 tesa SLs obs Labatt 2-150 MN JLo Jui eS & 11005 apie aba Hyp 4 SUT Jul (3 -2)4Sabe SY shy Laat! LS Genet egeall 2 £50 ccsh atl! YL OGL Sly o, =12%, 0, = 25%, pBS =0,W, =0.5,w, = 0.5 Portfolio Variance 07 P taaad! ould =(0.5x0.12F +(0.5x0.25) +2(0.5 x 0.12) (0.5 0.25)x0 = 192 .25% = 0.019225 cGslensy 192.25 oul ll alll yell ge Utada gjLuall Sloot! Cpl oul esSU Jue baal pybl esis Lem ty 13.87 C3 Lak 718.5 Laced! 6 ual! aL ool Lad Lui Sguey 18.522/ 12425 AUS. 3 poled audd5 Gye OS aguSU Mabel Of Gly Uadall Ql 5 Vales Spb Lidl Gare gi capil (pe Epo Rees dale Jgua all 3 gis! SLs 14.63 peed ALSY Sy SI leeds pees sgl (Labs Cyt ASLall [de Jes os SBI Lada splat BL aoYi ole Bla cy Late alle ily Wgiligeat Shak! ala aa! 93s JU ge Lael 2 Bill ASL! gL (2-2) LLL ond segs 710 sia Beit wGhell Jas OLS gta Aaa oh be SS eee 2 150 Ny past ony SLL Wages 17 geal! cagill Ske! 13.5 JUA10 cya gbgill SL Jes puss Zool) Lele Udall spblae JU Il jl! Gud tet of ose 218.733 colaiaN 281.27 8 Splat! ae a5 gf £85 uy Ltasall ALB (pS Uadoeel (6 liek! SL aol ots eat os ties eeu! seein Vike Segue 2125 Kus kyo pala Uae Udall ode a AST of 559 Se a gl 5 LEY Lada OY pea oes ple, gbgie ale east lll 3) Eps pall Lepentl Leo gupettionald Uiopas a ads of lleeall its Le (Pots (1-2) Jed] Z Losey Investment Opportunity Set Lex uStt colagegll pladtuty Uigcoihl doal nal! Sally spol seal Tot Lassa! Babes Quis dntll shal ns Sal (1-2) Jen dN 2 LSU tyes pall Le gent! LLG HL ay LAB GN SSL Yes BIL Gla Le on ae ete ceed ones (SF -2) gto (3 -2)y (2-2) cytaL ath Gyleell AbLoL ocbe Gye Jul sual dyyLeall Goldl ool, Lad gilt Bl pally (5-2) gue ctaally geal jbo duo pall te geot! Tavestment Proportions | Expected Return% | Standard Deviation% Ws We Ep) op 00 70 170 250 oz os 150 a4 oa os 1a 15.75 os 05 35 1387 06 oa 128 1232 08 oa ry Tobe 0.8127" 0.1873" 1131 10.822, 00 700 720 Ooh fat alaaott * AgASH tly Aue pAll gl Aad egert! 4 : Available or opportunity Set and Efficient Frontier bet! caing Lladoee 2 AIL SLs) ne oe es we abo geet Ld te tae pall gl LOG Le gently pau Le Op Sh Like ag AAU Sly Le geree Ge La gl Seell Que atl deal ed! (ell atin Lato bpbleedly ald! clas 2 UUM fend 2a de geal! (1-2) Jea8 2 (BZSAB) 3LLt oisiS| UabLatl ed 2308 Jad QAM OY aL BLS Y one gs MEH Legon 2 Bola ave of EY pet LN eee Ge (Weight 391) Kalle i 3,9 Jo 2 peta Lt BByg SES y 1100 im pase Gye) LLG Y ud po Ao Le gently aie dy abLodl ode guee Gules Glad [places quel petit oof W CuSLe Bole sags GoM y egal aol le Q35 (All ABLAL lt dad igs Gf dale (SA) cial toni! dies Le 549 Furthest North West 7 i!) Sladll get 2 DU Sree NZ Liye colpLisntl olkag Sl gall Nigc a Slgall GY ne (72) doe Bylolatly wSlall Slee Yi aati Deviation from Squared Product of Rate of Return a A Average Return | Deviation | Deviation Year apc [xyz | asc | xvz | asc | xyz | ABoxYZ 7 uaa | 2357 | 250 | 170 | a0 | 289 3.49 2 “76+ [5195 | 2693 | 3008 | 72522 | 90481 | 810.05 3 "$38 | 2043 | 1467 | -a2g2 | 21521 | 197098 | 62083 4 aaa | 482 | 3543 | 2625 | 125528 | dos | 93000 3 u339_ | 67 | 440 | 1570 | i681 | 24649 | -eaa7 Average [929 | 2187 | 44334 | 72665 | 72665 13599 ‘Variance or covariance estimate 554.18 908.31 169.99 Estimates of Estimates of variance covariance Standard deviation 23.54 30.14 Correlation coefficient =0.24 Cover ascst xvz) _ 169.99 _ 169.99 | ~ 23.54x30.14 799.495 — Correlation = Cine X Oxy ebeag Lajhall ots aM. Spall Vat oly all LS, os AdLaL da yluell bal soy s5lgell WL3 peag (7-2) Spee 2 LIV Sgt ell 2 Cn a get Leng XYZ 9 1ABC Seagull (ue Scan Lilie OokS 139) Maat Cases Spell Gye Jas pbaeally (8-2)

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