Produk Family A Family B

A1 A2 B1 B2
Harga 75000 85000 125000 45000
% Proporsi 25% 20% 30% 25%
Waktu Baku 2.34 2.38 3.95 3.64
Periode A1 A2 B1 B2
1 287 287 511 560
2 329 336 588 644
3 308 315 553 609
4 343 350 623 679
5 336 343 602 658
6 371 378 672 735
7 350 357 630 693
8 399 406 714 784
9 371 378 672 735
10 427 434 763 833
11 399 406 714 784
12 455 462 819 896
13 427 434 763 833
14 483 490 868 952
15 462 469 826 903
16 504 511 903 937
17 483 490 868 952
18 539 546 966 1057
19 504 511 910 994
20 560 567 1001 1099
21 518 532 931 1022
22 581 595 1050 1148
23 539 553 973 1064
24 609 616 1092 1197
4.1.3 Data Agregat

Produk Family A Family B

A1 A2 B1 B2
Harga 75000 85000 125000 45000
Fk 0.6 0.68 1 0.4
NPM 17
Periode A1 A2 B1 B2 DA1 DA2 DB1 DB2 Dt
1 287 287 511 560 2927.4 3317.7 8687 3427.2 18359
2 329 336 588 644 3355.8 3884.2 9996 3941.28 21177
3 308 315 553 609 3141.6 3641.4 9401 3727.08 19911
4 343 350 623 679 3498.6 4046.0 10591 4155.48 22291
5 336 343 602 658 3427.2 3965.1 10234 4026.96 21653
6 371 378 672 735 3784.2 4369.7 11424 4498.2 24076
7 350 357 630 693 3570 4126.9 10710 4241.16 22648
8 399 406 714 784 4069.8 4693.4 12138 4798.08 25699
9 371 378 672 735 3784.2 4369.7 11424 4498.2 24076
10 427 434 763 833 4355.4 5017.0 12971 5097.96 27441
11 399 406 714 784 4069.8 4693.4 12138 4798.08 25699
12 455 462 819 896 4641 5340.7 13923 5483.52 29388
13 427 434 763 833 4355.4 5017.0 12971 5097.96 27441
14 483 490 868 952 4926.6 5664.4 14756 5826.24 31173
15 462 469 826 903 4712.4 5421.6 14042 5526.36 29702
16 504 511 903 937 5140.8 5907.2 15351 5734.44 32133
17 483 490 868 952 4926.6 5664.4 14756 5826.24 31173
18 539 546 966 1057 5497.8 6311.8 16422 6468.84 34700
19 504 511 910 994 5140.8 5907.2 15470 6083.28 32601
20 560 567 1001 1099 5712 6554.5 17017 6725.88 36009
21 518 532 931 1022 5283.6 6149.9 15827 6254.64 33515
22 581 595 1050 1148 5926.2 6878.2 17850 7025.76 37680
23 539 553 973 1064 5497.8 6392.7 16541 6511.68 34943
24 609 616 1092 1197 6211.8 7121.0 18564 7325.64 39222
4.1.4 Pengolahan Data Peramalan
a. Metode Double Moving Average
60000

Periode(t) D S' S" a 50000 b m F

1 18359
2 21177 40000
3 19911 19815.9
4 22291 21126.5 30000
5 21653 21285.1 20742.5 21827.8 542.6 1 22370
6 24076 22673.5 21695.0 23651.9
20000 978.4 1 24630
7 22648 22792.5 22250.4 23334.6 542.1 1 23877
8 25699 24141.1 23202.4 25079.9
10000 938.8 1 26019
9 24076 24141.1 23691.6 24590.7 449.6 1 25040
10 27441 25738.9 24673.7 0
26804.1 1065.2 1 27869
11 25699 25738.9 25206.3 26271.5 532.6 1 26804
12 29388 27509.6 26329.1 28690.1 1180.5 1 29871
13 27441 27509.6 26919.4 28099.9 590.2 1 28690
14 31173 29334.3 28117.8 30550.7 1216.4 1 31767
15 29702 29439.0 28761.0 30117.0 678.0 1 30795
16 32133 31003.0 29925.4 32080.6 1077.6 1 33158
17 31173 31003.0 30481.7 31524.3 521.3 1 32046
18 34700 32669.0 31558.3 33779.7 1110.7 1 34890
19 32601 32825.0 32165.7 33484.3 659.3 1 34144
20 36009 34437.0 33310.3 35563.7 1126.7 1 36690
21 33515 34041.9 33768.0 34315.9 274.0 1 34590
22 37680 35734.9 34738.0 36731.9 997.0 1 37729
23 34943 35379.5 35052.1 35706.9 327.4 1 36034
24 39222 37281.9 36132.1 38431.7 1149.8 1 39582
25 1 39582
26 2 40731
27 3 41881
28 4 43031
29 5 44181
30 6 45331
31 7 46480
32 8 47630
33 9 48780
34 10 49930
35 11 51080
36 12 52229
Nilai Error dan Ukuran kesalahan

Periode(t) D F e ǀeǀ e² PE (%) ǀPEǀ

1 18359
2 21177
3 19911
4 22291
D
5 21653
F
22370 -717 717 514337.6 -3.3 3.3
6 24076 24630 -554 554 307221.4 -2.3 2.3
7 22648 23877 -1229 1229 1509479.8 -5.4 5.4
8 25699 26019 -319 319 102047.6 -1.2 1.2
9 24076 25040 -964 964 929613.1 -4.0 4.0
10 27441 27869 -428 428 183073.7 -1.6 1.6
11 25699 26804 -1105 1105 1220691.1 -4.3 4.3
12 29388 29871 -482 482 232658.3 -1.6 1.6
13 27441 28690 -1249 1249 1559268.3 -4.6 4.6
14 31173 31767 -594 594 352767.4 -1.9 1.9
15 29702 30795 -1093 1093 1193959.3 -3.7 3.7
16 32133 33158 -1025 1025 1050133.1 -3.2 3.2
17 31173 32046 -872 872 761151.6 -2.8 2.8
18 34700 34890 -190 190 36079.7 -0.5 0.5
19 32601 34144 -1542 1542 2378737.3 -4.7 4.7
20 36009 36690 -681 681 463736.8 -1.9 1.9
21 33515 34590 -1075 1075 1154984.9 -3.2 3.2
22 37680 37729 -49 49 2367.6 -0.1 0.1
23 34943 36034 -1091 1091 1190494.4 -3.1 3.1
24 39222 39582 -359 359 128964.0 -0.9 0.9
Total -15618 15618 15271767 -54.5 54.5

ME -650.8
MAE 650.8
SSE 15271767
MSE 636323.61
SDE 797.7
MPE -2.3
MAPE 2.3
b. Metode Brown

α 0.2
Periode(t) D S' S" a b m F
1 18359 18359 18359
2 21177 18922.9 18472.0 19373.8 112.7 1
3 19911 19120.5 18601.7 19639.3 129.7 1 19486
50000
4 22291 19754.6 18832.3 20677.0 230.6 1 19769
5 21653 20134.4 19092.7 45000
21176.0 260.4 1 20908
6 24076 20922.7 19458.7 40000
22386.7 366.0 1 21436
7 22648 21267.8 19820.5 22715.0
35000 361.8 1 22753
8 25699 22154.1 20287.2 24020.9
30000 466.7 1 23077
9 24076 22538.5 20737.5 24339.5
25000
450.2 1 24488
10 27441 23519.1 21293.8 25744.3 556.3 1 24790
20000
11 25699 23955.1 21826.1 26084.1 532.3 1 26301
15000
12 29388 25041.7 22469.2 27614.3 643.1 1 26616
13 27441 25521.7 23079.7 10000
27963.6 610.5 1 28257
14 31173 26652.0 23794.1 29509.8
5000 714.5 1 28574
15 29702 27262.1 24487.7 30036.4 0 693.6 1 30224
16 32133 28236.3 25237.4 31235.2 749.7 1 30730
17 31173 28823.7 25954.7 31692.7 717.3 1 31985
18 34700 29999.0 26763.6 33234.5 808.9 1 32410
19 32601 30519.5 27514.8 33524.2 751.2 1 34043
20 36009 31617.5 28335.3 34899.6 820.5 1 34275
21 33515 31997.0 29067.6 34926.4 732.3 1 35720
22 37680 33133.6 29880.8 36386.4 813.2 1 35659
23 34943 33495.5 30603.8 36387.3 722.9 1 37200
24 39222 34640.9 31411.2 37870.6 807.4 1 37110
25 1 38678
26 2 39485
27 3 40293
28 4 41100
29 5 41908
30 6 42715
31 7 43523
32 8 44330
33 9 45137
34 10 45945
35 11 46752
36 12 47560
Nilai Error dan Ukuran Kesalahan

Periode(t) D F e ǀeǀ e² PE (%) ǀPEǀ

1 18359
2 21177
3 19911 19486 425 424.6 180278 2.1 2.1
4 22291 19769 2522 2522.0 6360678 11.3 11.3
5 21653 20908 746 745.7 556042 3.4 3.4
6 24076 21436 2640 2639.7 6967845 11.0 11.0
7 22648 22753 -105 104.6 10943 -0.5 0.5
8 25699 23077 2622 2622.4 6876975 10.2 10.2
9 24076 24488 -412 411.5 169359 -1.7 1.7
10 27441 24790 2652 2651.7 7031475 9.7 9.7
11 D
25699 26301 -601 601.4 361671 -2.3 2.3
F
12 29388 26616 2772 2771.9 7683161 9.4 9.4
13 27441 28257 -816 816.0 665835 -3.0 3.0
14 31173 28574 2599 2599.1 6755399 8.3 8.3
15 29702 30224 -522 521.9 272342 -1.8 1.8
16 32133 30730 1403 1403.4 1969599 4.4 4.4
17 31173 31985 -812 811.7 658838 -2.6 2.6
18 34700 32410 2290 2290.4 5246055 6.6 6.6
19 32601 34043 -1442 1442.2 2079815 -4.4 4.4
20 36009 34275 1734 1734.0 3006745 4.8 4.8
21 33515 35720 -2205 2205.0 4862136 -6.6 6.6
22 37680 35659 2021 2021.4 4086227 5.4 5.4
23 34943 37200 -2256 2256.5 5091689 -6.5 6.5
24 39222 37110 2112 2112.2 4461194 5.4 5.4
Total 17367.8 35709.2 75354302 62.7 121.3

ME 723.7
MAE 1487.9
SSE 75354302
MSE 3139762.6
SDE 1771.9
MPE 2.6
MAPE 5.1
c. Metode Holt
Nilai Error dan Ukuran Kes

α 0.4 γ 0.6
Periode(t) D S b m F Periode(t)
1 18359 18359 2818 60000 1
2 21177 21177.2 2817.9 1 2
3 19911 22361.5 1837.7 1 23995 50000 3
4 22291 23436.0 1379.8 1 24199 4
5 21653 23550.8 620.8 1 24816 40000 5
6 24076 24133.3 597.9 1 24172 6
7 22648 23898.0 97.9 1 24731 30000 7
8 25699 24677.2 506.7 1 23996 8
9 24076 24740.8 240.8 1 25184 20000 9
10 27441 25965.5 831.2 1 24982 10
11 25699 26357.7 567.8 1 26797 10000 11
12 29388 27910.6 1158.8 1 26926 12
0
13 27441 28418.2 768.1 1 29069 13
14 31173 29981.1 1245.0 1 29186 14
15 29702 30616.6 879.3 1 31226 15
16 32133 31750.9 1032.3 1 31496 16
17 31173 32139.2 645.9 1 32783 17
18 34700 33551.2 1105.6 1 32785 18
19 32601 33834.6 612.2 1 34657 19
20 36009 35071.8 987.3 1 34447 20
21 33515 35041.5 376.7 1 36059 21
22 37680 36323.0 919.6 1 35418 22
23 34943 36322.8 367.7 1 37243 23
24 39222 37703.3 975.4 1 36691 24
25 1 38679 Total
26 2 39654
27 3 40629
28 4 41605 ME
29 5 42580 MAE
30 6 43555 SSE
31 7 44531 MSE
32 8 45506 SDE
33 9 46482 MPE
34 10 47457 MAPE
35 11 48432
36 12 49408
ilai Error dan Ukuran Kesalahan

D F e ǀeǀ e² PE (%) ǀPEǀ

000 18359
21177
000 19911 23995 -4084.1 4084.1 16679709.4 -20.5 20.5
22291 24199 -1908.2 1908.2 3641184.5 -8.6 8.6
000 21653 24816 -3162.5 3162.5 10001588.2 -14.6 14.6
24076 24172 -95.4 95.4 9109.90923 -0.4 0.4
000 22648 24731 -2083.1 2083.1 4339426.8 D -9.2 9.2
25699 23996 1703.4 1703.4 2901475.99 F 6.6 6.6
000 24076 25184 -1107.9 1107.9 1227346.47 -4.6 4.6
27441 24982 2459.8 2459.8 6050476.92 9.0 9.0
000 25699 26797 -1097.5 1097.5 1204454.54 -4.3 4.3
29388 26926 2462.7 2462.7 6065034.17 8.4 8.4
0
27441 29069 -1628.0 1628.0 2650522.98 -5.9 5.9
31173 29186 1986.9 1986.9 3947789.67 6.4 6.4
29702 31226 -1523.7 1523.7 2321552.62 -5.1 5.1
32133 31496 637.5 637.5 406424.035 2.0 2.0
31173 32783 -1609.9 1609.9 2591914.87 -5.2 5.2
34700 32785 1915.3 1915.3 3668335.11 5.5 5.5
32601 34657 -2055.6 2055.6 4225328.29 -6.3 6.3
36009 34447 1562.6 1562.6 2441668.91 4.3 4.3
33515 36059 -2543.9 2543.9 6471679.02 -7.6 7.6
37680 35418 2261.9 2261.9 5116274.22 6.0 6.0
34943 37243 -2299.4 2299.4 5287339.09 -6.6 6.6
39222 36691 2531.9 2531.9 6410395.29 6.5 6.5
Total -7677.3 42721.25 97659031.1 -44.2 153.5

-319.9
1780.1
97659031.1
4069126.29
2017.2
-1.8
6.4
d. Metode Regresi Linier

P(t) D t.D t² F e ǀeǀ e² PE (%) ǀPEǀ

1 18359 18359.3 1 19009 -649.4 649.4 421758.6 -3.5 3.5
2 21177 42354.5 4 19829 1347.8 1347.8 1816610.3 6.4 6.4
3 19911 59733.2 9 20650 -739.0 739.0 546145.8 -3.7 3.7
4 22291 89164.3 16 21471 820.3 820.3 672907.7 3.7 3.7
5 21653 108266.2 25 22291 -638.2 638.2 407304.5 -2.9 2.9
6 24076 144456.5 36 23112 964.0 964.0 929223.1 4.0 4.0
7 22648 158536.6 49 23933 -1284.7 1284.7 1650483.6 -5.7 5.7
8 25699 205593.9 64 24753 945.8 945.8 894490.1 3.7 3.7
9 24076 216684.7 81 25574 -1498.1 1498.1 2244180.2 -6.2 6.2
10 27441 274414.0 100 26395 1046.6 1046.6 1095345.4 3.8 3.8
11 25699 282691.6 121 27215 -1516.2 1516.2 2299002.4 -5.9 5.9
12 29388 352658.9 144 28036 1352.1 1352.1 1828120.8 4.6 4.6
13 27441 356738.2 169 28857 -1415.4 1415.4 2003452.0 -5.2 5.2
60000
14 31173 436425.4 196 29678 1495.7 1495.7 2237216.7 4.8 4.8
15 29702 445536.0 225 30498
50000
-795.8 795.8 633267.1 -2.7 2.7
16 32133 514134.4 256 31319 814.5 814.5 663484.4 2.5 2.5
17 31173 529945.1 289 32140
40000 -966.3 966.3 933712.8 -3.1 3.1
18 34700 624607.2 324 32960 1740.2 1740.2 3028289.6 5.0 5.0
19 32601 619423.6 361 33781
30000 -1179.6 1179.6 1391540.0 -3.6 3.6
F
20 36009 720188.0 400 34602 1407.9 1407.9 1982043.9 3.9 3.9
D
21 33515 703818.4 441 35422
20000 -1907.1 1907.1 3636888.7 -5.7 5.7
22 37680 828963.5 484 36243 1437.3 1437.3 2065726.3 3.8 3.8
23 34943 803692.7 529 37064
10000 -2120.4 2120.4 4496139.4 -6.1 6.1
24 39222 941337.6 576 37884 1338.2 1338.2 1790661.8 3.4 3.4
300 682716 9477723.7 4900 Total
0 0.0 29420.6 39667995.4 -4.7 103.9
25 387051 3 5 7 9 1 1 1 3 15 1 7 19 2 1 23 25 2 7 2 9 31 3 3 35
26 b 820.7 39526
27 a 18188.1 40346 ME
28 41167 MAE 1225.9
29 41988 SSE 39667995.4
30 42808 MSE 1652833.1
31 43629 SDE 1285.6
32 44450 MPE -0.2
33 45270 MAPE 4.3
34 46091
35 46912
36 47732

P(t) F
1 19009
2 19829
3 20650
4 21471
5 22291
6 23112
7 23933
8 24753
9 25574
10 26395
11 27215
12 28036
13 28857
14 29678
15 30498
16 31319
17 32140
18 32960
19 33781
20 34602
21 35422
22 36243
23 37064
24 37884
25 38705
26 39526
27 40346
28 41167
29 41988
30 42808
31 43629
32 44450
33 45270
34 46091
35 46912
36 47732
 F
D

2 7 2 9 31 3 3 35
Jam Kerja per hari 8 jam
Max Over Time 20%
Waktu Baku 3.95 menit
Tenaga Kerja Max 11
Tenaga Kerja Awal 6
Max Sub Kontrak 25%
Persediaan Awal 5000
Ongkos RT 4500
Ongkos OT 9000
Ongkos SK 12000
Ongkos Simpan 1500
Ongkos Hiring 750000
Ongkos Layoff 1500000
 Jumlah Tenaga Kerja = 18.3 19
Periode Hari Kerja Demand RMH UPRT UPRT UPOT SK Hiring Lay Off
(unit) (unit) (orang)
0
1 21 39582 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 13 0
2 19 40731 2888 43868.4 43868 0 0 0 0
3 21 41881 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
4 20 43031 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
5 22 44181 3344 50794.9 50794 0 0 0 0
6 20 45331 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
7 21 46480 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
8 21 47630 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
9 20 48780 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
10 21 49930 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
11 20 51080 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
12 19 52229 2888 43868.4 43868 0 0 0 0
Total 245 550865 37240 565670.9 565668 0 0 13 0

Unit Biaya Unit Jumlah

UPRT 565668 4500 2545506000
UPOT 0 9000 0
Sub Kontrak 0 12000 0
Hiring 13 750000 9750000
Lay Off 0 1500000 0
Inventory 337956 1500 506933573
Total Cost 3062189573

Tabel Kapasitas
Periode UPRT OT SK
1 48486 9697.2 12122
2 43868 8773.6 10967
3 48486 9697.2 12122
4 46177 9235.4 11544
5 50794 10158.8 12699
6 46177 9235.4 11544
7 48486 9697.2 12122
8 48486 9697.2 12122
9 46177 9235.4 11544
10 48486 9697.2 12122
11 46177 9235.4 11544
12 43868 8773.6 10967
Inv . Akhir

5000
13904
17041
23646
26792
33405
34252
36257
37113
34510
33067
28164
19803
337956
Periode Hari Kerja Demand TK yg tersedia TK yg dipakai RMH UPRT UPRT SK Hiring
(unit) (unit) (orang)
0 6
1 21 39582 13.55 14 2352 35726.6 35726 0 8
2 19 40731 17.15 18 2736 41559.5 41559 0 4
3 21 41881 15.64 16 2688 40830.4 40830 0
4 20 43031 17.33 18 2880 43746.8 43746 0 2
5 22 44181 15.91 16 2816 42774.7 42774 0
6 20 45331 18.56 19 3040 46177.2 46177 0 3
7 21 46480 17.79 18 3024 45934.2 45934 0
8 21 47630 18.46 19 3192 48486.1 48486 0 1
9 20 48780 19.50 20 3200 48607.6 48607 0 1
10 21 49930 19.09 20 3360 51038.0 51037 0 0
11 20 51080 20.06 21 3360 51038.0 51037 0 1
12 19 52229 21.64 22 3344 50794.9 50794 0 1
Total 245 550865 220.67 221 35992 546713.9 546707 0 21

Unit Biaya Unit Jumlah

UPRT 546707 5000 2733535000
Sub Kontrak 0.0 9000 0
Hiring 8 1500 12000
Lay Off 5 750000 3750000
Inventory 15545 12000 186536586.67
Total Cost 2923833587

Periode UPRT OT SK
1 35726 7145.2 8931.5
2 41559 8311.8 10389.8
3 40830 8166.0 10207.5
4 43746 8749.2 10936.5
5 42774 8554.8 10693.5
6 46177 9235.4 11544.3
7 45934 9186.8 11483.5
8 48486 9697.2 12121.5
9 48607 9721.4 12151.8
10 51037 10207.4 12759.3
11 51037 10207.4 12759.3
12 50794 10158.8 12698.5
Lay Off Inv . Akhir

5000
0 1144
0 1972
2 921
1636
2 229
1076
1 529
1385
1212
0 2320
2277
842
5 15545
Periode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4500
Reguler Time
39582
9000
1 Over Time

12000
Sub Kontrak

4500
Reguler Time
40731
9000
2 Over Time

12000
Sub Kontrak

4500
Reguler Time
41881
9000
3 Over Time

12000
Sub Kontrak

4500
Reguler Time
43031
9000
4 Over Time

12000
Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

5 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

6 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

7 Over Time

Sub Kontrak
 Reguler Time

8 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

9 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

10 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

11 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Reguler Time

12 Over Time

Sub Kontrak

Demand 39582 40731 41881 43031 44181 45331 46480 47630

9 10 11 12 Kapasitas Unused capacity

48486 8904

9697.2 9697.2

12122 12122

43868 3137

8773.6 8773.6

10967 10967

48486 6605

9697.2 9697.2

12122 12122

46177 3146

9235.4

11544

50794

10158.8

12699

46177

9235.4

11544

48486

9697.2

12122
 48486

9697.2

12122

46177

9235.4

11544

48486

9697.2

12122

46177

9235.4

11544

43868

8773.6

10967
48780 49930 51080 52229
Family item Harga Waktu Baku % Proporsi Faktor Konversi (mij)
A1 75000 2.34 25% 0.6
A
A2 85000 2.38 20% 0.68
B1 125000 3.95 30% 1
B
B2 45000 3.64 25% 0.4

Actual Family A Family B

RPA
Periode Demand A1 A2 B1 B2
1 39582 16492 11642 11874 27487 34582
2 40731 16971 11980 12219 28286 40731
3 41881 17450 12318 12564 29084 41881
4 43031 17930 12656 12909 29883 43031
5 44181 18409 12994 13254 30681 44181
6 45331 18888 13333 13599 31480 45331
7 46480 19367 13671 13944 32278 46480
8 47630 19846 14009 14289 33076 47630
9 48780 20325 14347 14634 33875 48780
10 49930 20804 14685 14979 34673 49930
11 51080 21283 15023 15324 35472 51080
12 52229 21762 15362 15669 36270 52229
Family item Iij,t-1 rij,t Sij,t Iij,t dij,t Iij,t < Sij,t Kj
A1 2083 6872 0 -4788
A
A2 1471 3424 0 -1953
B1 1500 3562 0 -2062
B
B2 3472 19088 0 -15616

T*j q*ij mij rij x mij q*ij x mij q*ij(adj) q*ij(adj) x Iij,t (adj)
A

B
hij hij X rij

Iij,t (adj) x mij