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Prak P3
Prak P3
A1 A2 B1 B2
Harga 75000 85000 125000 45000
% Proporsi 25% 20% 30% 25%
Waktu Baku 2.34 2.38 3.95 3.64
Periode A1 A2 B1 B2
1 287 287 511 560
2 329 336 588 644
3 308 315 553 609
4 343 350 623 679
5 336 343 602 658
6 371 378 672 735
7 350 357 630 693
8 399 406 714 784
9 371 378 672 735
10 427 434 763 833
11 399 406 714 784
12 455 462 819 896
13 427 434 763 833
14 483 490 868 952
15 462 469 826 903
16 504 511 903 937
17 483 490 868 952
18 539 546 966 1057
19 504 511 910 994
20 560 567 1001 1099
21 518 532 931 1022
22 581 595 1050 1148
23 539 553 973 1064
24 609 616 1092 1197
4.1.3 Data Agregat
Unit
20000
6 24076 22673.5 21695.0 23651.9 978.4 1 24630
7 22648 22792.5 22250.4 23334.6 10000
542.1 1 23877
8 25699 24141.1 23202.4 25079.9 938.80 1 26019
9 24076 24141.1 23691.6 24590.7 449.6 1 4 17 0 13 16 1 9
1 25040 22 25 28 31 34
10 27441 25738.9 24673.7 26804.1 1065.2 1 27869
Periode
11 25699 25738.9 25206.3 26271.5 532.6 1 26804
12 29388 27509.6 26329.1 28690.1 1180.5 1 29871
13 27441 27509.6 26919.4 28099.9 590.2 1 28690
14 31173 29334.3 28117.8 30550.7 1216.4 1 31767
15 29702 29439.0 28761.0 30117.0 678.0 1 30795
16 32133 31003.0 29925.4 32080.6 1077.6 1 33158
17 31173 31003.0 30481.7 31524.3 521.3 1 32046
18 34700 32669.0 31558.3 33779.7 1110.7 1 34890
19 32601 32825.0 32165.7 33484.3 659.3 1 34144
20 36009 34437.0 33310.3 35563.7 1126.7 1 36690
21 33515 34041.9 33768.0 34315.9 274.0 1 34590
22 37680 35734.9 34738.0 36731.9 997.0 1 37729
23 34943 35379.5 35052.1 35706.9 327.4 1 36034
24 39222 37281.9 36132.1 38431.7 1149.8 1 39582
25 1 39582
26 2 40731
27 3 41881
28 4 43031
29 5 44181
30 6 45331
31 7 46480
32 8 47630
33 9 48780
34 10 49930
35 11 51080
36 12 52229
Nilai Error dan Ukuran kesalahan
ME -650.8
MAE 650.8
SSE 15271767
MSE 636323.61
SDE 797.7
MPE -2.3
MAPE 2.3
b. Metode Brown
α 0.2
Periode(t) D S' S" a b m F
1 18359 18359 18359
2 21177 18922.9 18472.0 19373.8 112.7 1
3 19911 19120.5 18601.7 19639.3 129.7 1 19486
4 22291 19754.6 18832.3 20677.0 230.6 1 19769
5 21653 20134.4 19092.7 21176.0 260.4 1 Plot Data Brown
20908
6 24076 20922.7 19458.7 22386.7 366.0
50000 1 21436
45000
7 22648 21267.8 19820.5 22715.0 361.8 1 22753
40000
8 25699 22154.1 20287.2 24020.9 466.7
35000 1 23077
9 24076 22538.5 20737.5 24339.5 30000
450.2 1 24488
25000
10 27441 23519.1 21293.8 25744.3 556.3 1 24790
Unit
20000
11 25699 23955.1 21826.1 26084.1 532.3
15000 1 26301
12 29388 25041.7 22469.2 27614.3 10000
643.1 1 26616
5000
13 27441 25521.7 23079.7 27963.6 610.5
0 1 28257
14 31173 26652.0 23794.1 29509.8 714.51 4 17 10 128574
3 1 6 1 9 22 25 28 31 34
15 29702 27262.1 24487.7 30036.4 693.6 1 30224
16 32133 28236.3 25237.4 31235.2 749.7 1 Periode
30730
17 31173 28823.7 25954.7 31692.7 717.3 1 31985
18 34700 29999.0 26763.6 33234.5 808.9 1 32410
19 32601 30519.5 27514.8 33524.2 751.2 1 34043
20 36009 31617.5 28335.3 34899.6 820.5 1 34275
21 33515 31997.0 29067.6 34926.4 732.3 1 35720
22 37680 33133.6 29880.8 36386.4 813.2 1 35659
23 34943 33495.5 30603.8 36387.3 722.9 1 37200
24 39222 34640.9 31411.2 37870.6 807.4 1 37110
25 1 38678
26 2 39485
27 3 40293
28 4 41100
29 5 41908
30 6 42715
31 7 43523
32 8 44330
33 9 45137
34 10 45945
35 11 46752
36 12 47560
Nilai Error dan Ukuran Kesalahan
ME 723.7
MAE 1487.9
SSE 75354302
MSE 3139762.6
SDE 1771.9
MPE 2.6
MAPE 5.1
c. Metode Holt
Nilai Error dan Ukuran Kes
α 0.4 γ 0.6
Periode(t) D S b m F Periode(t)
1 18359 18359 2818 1
2 21177 21177.2 2817.9 1 2
3 19911 22361.5 1837.7 1 23995 3
P
60000
4 22291 23436.0 1379.8 1 24199 4
5 21653 23550.8 620.8 1 24816 50000
5
6 24076 24133.3 597.9 1 24172 6
40000
7 22648 23898.0 97.9 1 24731 7
30000
8 25699 24677.2 506.7 1 23996 8
Unit
20000
9 24076 24740.8 240.8 1 25184 9
10000
10 27441 25965.5 831.2 1 24982 10
11 25699 26357.7 567.8 1 26797 11 0
12 29388 27910.6 1158.8 1 26926 12 1 4 7 10
13 27441 28418.2 768.1 1 29069 13
14 31173 29981.1 1245.0 1 29186 14
15 29702 30616.6 879.3 1 31226 15
16 32133 31750.9 1032.3 1 31496 16
17 31173 32139.2 645.9 1 32783 17
18 34700 33551.2 1105.6 1 32785 18
19 32601 33834.6 612.2 1 34657 19
20 36009 35071.8 987.3 1 34447 20
21 33515 35041.5 376.7 1 36059 21
22 37680 36323.0 919.6 1 35418 22
23 34943 36322.8 367.7 1 37243 23
24 39222 37703.3 975.4 1 36691 24
25 1 38679 Total
26 2 39654
27 3 40629
28 4 41605 ME
29 5 42580 MAE
30 6 43555 SSE
31 7 44531 MSE
32 8 45506 SDE
33 9 46482 MPE
34 10 47457 MAPE
35 11 48432
36 12 49408
ilai Error dan Ukuran Kesalahan
20000
24076 25184 -1107.9 1107.9 1227346.47 -4.6 4.6
10000
27441 24982 2459.8 2459.8 6050476.92 9.0 9.0
0 25699 26797 -1097.5 1097.5 1204454.54 -4.3 4.3
1 429388
7 10 3 1 6 19
126926 2
2462.7
2 2 5 2 8 31 34
2462.7 6065034.17 8.4 8.4
27441 29069
Periode -1628.0 1628.0 2650522.98 -5.9 5.9
31173 29186 1986.9 1986.9 3947789.67 6.4 6.4
29702 31226 -1523.7 1523.7 2321552.62 -5.1 5.1
32133 31496 637.5 637.5 406424.035 2.0 2.0
31173 32783 -1609.9 1609.9 2591914.87 -5.2 5.2
34700 32785 1915.3 1915.3 3668335.11 5.5 5.5
32601 34657 -2055.6 2055.6 4225328.29 -6.3 6.3
36009 34447 1562.6 1562.6 2441668.91 4.3 4.3
33515 36059 -2543.9 2543.9 6471679.02 -7.6 7.6
37680 35418 2261.9 2261.9 5116274.22 6.0 6.0
34943 37243 -2299.4 2299.4 5287339.09 -6.6 6.6
39222 36691 2531.9 2531.9 6410395.29 6.5 6.5
Total -7677.3 42721.25 97659031.1 -44.2 153.5
-319.9
1780.1
97659031.1
4069126.29
2017.2
-1.8
6.4
d. Metode Regresi Linier
Demand
21 33515 703818.4 441 3542220000
-1907.1 1907.1 3636888.7 -5.7 5.7
22 37680 828963.5 484 36243100001437.3 1437.3 2065726.3 3.8 3.8
23 34943 803692.7 529 37064 -2120.4
0 2120.4 4496139.4 -6.1 6.1
24 39222 941337.6 576 37884 1338.21 4 71338.2
10 13 1790661.8
16 19 22 253.428 313.4 34
300 682716 9477723.7 4900 Total 0.0 29420.6 39667995.4 -4.7 103.9
Periode
25 38705
26 b 820.7 39526
27 a 18188.1 40346 ME
28 41167 MAE 1225.9
29 41988 SSE 39667995.4
30 42808 MSE 1652833.1
31 43629 SDE 1285.6
32 44450 MPE -0.2
33 45270 MAPE 4.3
34 46091
35 46912
36 47732
P(t) F
1 19009
2 19829
3 20650
4 21471
5 22291
6 23112
7 23933
8 24753
9 25574
10 26395
11 27215
12 28036
13 28857
14 29678
15 30498
16 31319
17 32140
18 32960
19 33781
20 34602
21 35422
22 36243
23 37064
24 37884
25 38705
26 39526
27 40346
28 41167
29 41988
30 42808
31 43629
32 44450
33 45270
34 46091
35 46912
36 47732
inier
Forcast
Demand
28 31 34
Jam Kerja per hari 8 jam
Max Over Time 20%
Waktu Baku 3.95 menit
Tenaga Kerja Max 11
Tenaga Kerja Awal 6
Max Sub Kontrak 25%
Persediaan Awal 5000
Ongkos RT 4500
Ongkos OT 9000
Ongkos SK 12000
Ongkos Simpan 1500
Ongkos Hiring 750000
Ongkos Layoff 1500000
Jumlah Tenaga Kerja = 18.3 19
Periode Hari Kerja Demand RMH UPRT UPRT UPOT SK Hiring Lay Off
(unit) (unit) (orang)
0
1 21 39582 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 13 0
2 19 40731 2888 43868.4 43868 0 0 0 0
3 21 41881 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
4 20 43031 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
5 22 44181 3344 50794.9 50794 0 0 0 0
6 20 45331 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
7 21 46480 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
8 21 47630 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
9 20 48780 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
10 21 49930 3192 48486.1 48486 0 0 0 0
11 20 51080 3040 46177.2 46177 0 0 0 0
12 19 52229 2888 43868.4 43868 0 0 0 0
Total 245 550865 37240 565670.9 565668 0 0 13 0
Tabel Kapasitas
Periode UPRT OT SK
1 48486 9697.2 12122
2 43868 8773.6 10967
3 48486 9697.2 12122
4 46177 9235.4 11544
5 50794 10158.8 12699
6 46177 9235.4 11544
7 48486 9697.2 12122
8 48486 9697.2 12122
9 46177 9235.4 11544
10 48486 9697.2 12122
11 46177 9235.4 11544
12 43868 8773.6 10967
Inv . Akhir
5000 Inventori
13904
17041 40000
23646 35000
26792 30000
33405 25000
20000 Inventori
Unit
34252
36257 15000
37113 10000
34510 5000
0
33067
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
28164
Periode
19803
337956
Demand
40000
20000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Periode
PeriodeHari KerjaDemandTK yg tersedia
TK yg dipakaiRMH UPRT UPRT SK Hiring Lay Off Inv . Akhir
(unit) (unit) (orang)
0 6 5000
1 21 39582 13.55 14 2352 35726.6 35726 0 8 0 1144
2 19 40731 17.15 18 2736 41559.5 41559 0 4 0 1972
3 21 41881 15.64 16 2688 40830.4 40830 0 2 921
4 20 43031 17.33 18 2880 43746.8 43746 0 2 1636
5 22 44181 15.91 16 2816 42774.7 42774 0 2 229
6 20 45331 18.56 19 3040 46177.2 46177 0 3 1076
7 21 46480 17.79 18 3024 45934.2 45934 0 1 529
8 21 47630 18.46 19 3192 48486.1 48486 0 1 1385
9 20 48780 19.50 20 3200 48607.6 48607 0 1 1212
10 21 49930 19.09 20 3360 51038.0 51037 0 0 0 2320
11 20 51080 20.06 21 3360 51038.0 51037 0 1 2277
12 19 52229 21.64 22 3344 50794.9 50794 0 1 842
Total 245 550865 220.67 221 35992 546713.9 546707 0 21 5 15545
Inve
2500
Tabel Kapasitas
2000
Periode UPRT OT SK
1 35726 7145.2 8931.5 1500
2 41559 8311.8 10389.8
Unit
Demand
40000
20000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Periode
Inventori
2500
2000
1500
Inventori
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Periode
Family item Harga Waktu Baku % Proporsi
Faktor Konversi (mSet
ij) up cost Holding cost
A1 75000 2.34 25% 0.6 160
A 26000
A2 85000 2.38 20% 0.68 180
B1 125000 3.95 30% 1 145
B 20000
B2 45000 3.64 25% 0.4 150
Periode 2
Family item Iij,t-1 rij,t Sij,t Iij,t
A1 1590 7071 0 -5482
A
A2 1076 3523 0 -2448
B1 1099 3666 0 -2566
B
B2 2898 19643 0 -16744
Periode 3
Family item Iij,t-1 rij,t Sij,t Iij,t
A1 5596 7271 0 -1675
A
A2 2912 3623 0 -711
B1 3021 3769 0 -748
B
B2 14884 20197 0 -5314
Periode 4
Family item Iij,t-1 rij,t Sij,t Iij,t
A1 26397 7670 0 18727
A
A2 13139 3822 0 9317
B1 13670 3976 0 9694
B
B2 73401 21306 0 52095
12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500 21000 22500 24000 25500 27000 28500
SK 12122 12122
4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500
RT 43868 3137
40731
9000 10500 12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500 21000 22500 24000
2 OT 8773.6 8774
12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500 21000 22500 24000 25500 27000
SK 10967 10967
4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000 13500 15000 16500 18000
RT 48486 6605
41881
9000 10500 12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500 21000 22500
3 OT 9697.2 9697
12000 13500 15000 16500 18000 19500 21000 22500 24000 25500
SK 12122 12122
4500 6000
RT 46177 0
46177
9000 10500
11 OT 9235.4 4333
4903
12000 13500
SK 11544 11544
4500
RT 43868 0
43868
9000
12 OT 8773.6 412
8361
12000
SK 10967 10967
Demand 39582 40731 41881 43031 44181 45331 46480 47630 48780 49930 51080 52229
Tabel 18 Rencana Agregat Metode Transportasi
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