BILLGATES TALKS TOJOHN KENNEDY ABOUT MURDOCH, MONEY, AND WORLD DOMINATION“We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there."" —Charles Franklin Kettering isten to the speeches of any poltcian out there and you're almost assured of hearing at least one reference to the fur ture Afterall, we don't seem to want to elect politicians un- less they offer a hopeful vision of what les ahead. But when the future finally comes around tothe present it usually re sembles nothing of what we were promised, so we blame the fs in office for footing us ‘But we ae alla least as responsible as the politicians, because we as voters set up the rules ofthe game that scorches us. Ifyou play three card monte against someone promising big wins and you lose your shit, ‘whom do you blame? The fellow who scammed you? Or do you blame yoursetf for being silly enough to believe you'd win? In this issue we've tried to provide a rough picture of what you can anticipate in the years to come—in everything from sex to war, the envi :0 you don't have to rly solely on the words of those who trade you a pair of rose-colored glasses for your vote, After ronment to education all ts the New Year, the inauguration is just over, and it's time for the stocktaking State ofthe Union message. If you're like us, you'e proba bly tempted to look beyond the prosaic present and a trig February and wonder for a moment, What's next? ‘There's something gooey about much of what you read about the fu "must ture, cause it's usally ll speculation unsupported by had facts. Soin i ionaire: Cates at Microset. will evolve and which people wil effect all those changes come the year this month's survival quide, we tell you how eight critical political issues OH! SAY CAN YOU SEE... £2020. There's no magic in our choice of year other than if you're approx imately my age, that would be about the time when your So ‘checks wil if we keep on our current course, bounce. But we hav solutions fr that unpleasant possibilty, too. Two of the biggest names in the investment industry, Peter Lynch and Peter G. Peterson, explain why the Social Security trust fund wil go bust, and they offer some practical solutions that could keep it an entitlement for generations to come, Given that a bipartisan blue-ribbon panel has been unable to agree on ‘any of a number of proposed solutions for keeping the fund solvent the cial Security Peter principles are especialy topical ‘As @ general rule, beware of those who predict the future, except. of course, those who study it or own it In this issue, Edward Tenner, author of a recent book about the revenge effects of technology, talks with Wendell Bl futurist professor at Yale University Car! Sagan looks into the cosmas to imagine a world in which he is president. And Bill Gates answers the looming question “If ll politics is local, what happens when were all connected in the global vilage?” Finally, no explanation of the future would be complete without 3 recitation ofthe past. We are particularly proud to have in this issue @ piece by historian Douglas Brinkley on the final days ofthe Carter pres dency As Bill Clinton begins his second term, it's worth reflecting on how similarly situated both men were coming into the White House and why their fortunes parted. Each was a popular governor of a southern state Who trumpeted his separateness from the Washington political estab lishment, And though Clinton hints occasionally ofa chil ly relationship withthe Washington elite, stemming from his meteoric rise from humble southern roots. he has forced their acceptance of him by circumstance if sey soppy "0 chole. Carter, we learn, was done in by the very qualities that got him elected in the frst lace: his unwillingness to play politics the Wash Ington way his aloofness, and his rigid sense of ‘morality. But today it's Carter's particular charac ter that has earned him espect as a statesman, Which he never enjoyed while president. So we hope you enjoy George's take on the future. Why not pu tina sate piace somewhere {and take it out in 20 years? To paraphrase ‘great Englishman, it may not get want, but you just might find what you need, fet You what you will get youJohn Kennedy talks to the head of Microsoft about moneys Murdoch, and why he's @ politician's favorite photo-op BILL GATES : |nthe United States, great wealth is offen acquired with great speed, but no one has ever amasted s0 much so quickly as has Bill Gates, the 41-year-old co-founder, chairman, and chief xccutive officer of the Microsoft Corporation. With a per- sonal fortune in excess of $20 billion, Gates presides over a company whose net worth (in excess of $100 billion) is more than ten times the gross domestic product of Zaire. Not only ‘that, his name has become synonymous with the information revolution. His achievement isall the more astonishing when you consider that the young Gates was sure enough about his vocation in 1975 to drop out of Harvard University in his sophomore year and team up with his high school frend Paul Allen to lay the foundations of the Microsoft Corporation, ; It’s hard to believe thatthe calm, modest, boysh-Looking Gates the opposite ofthe stereotypical swashbuclling entrepreneur of ‘okd—has transformed not only the computer industry but also how millions now work and communicate with each other Inthe business community, however, there are those who say that Microsoi the epito- ‘me of the modern company, has adopt J the predatory business prac fices of old-fashioned industrial behemoths such as General Motors or TBM, that Microsofts share of the software market is approaching a dangerous monopoly. In 1995, Microsoft had to drop its plans to take lover software producer Intuit amid accusations that the acquisition ‘would represent a breach of antitrust legislation. Indeed, during the course of my interview the only oceasion that disturbed the placid exe for of Microsoft's chairman was when I brought up this issue With his software programs a ubiquitous feature of offices and homes in the Western world, Gates is now hoping to alter the prac fice and the perception of government. In Gates's view, so long as {government is prepared to embrace the information revolution, then we can all expect government to become smaller, more accessible, {and infinitely more accountable Yer there are some who believe that Gates’ vision of the future uter-driven democracy in which the individual, liberated by technology, Will be self-sufficient might easly lead tothe scenarios predicted by A 5 Huey in Brave New World or George Orwell in 1984. Far fom, snecting people to each other, Gatess critics allege, the computer age herald an c red or communicated vi of socal alienation, a world where everything can be one’s workstation and where there willbe ‘need to participate in what we understand to be civic life. Worse it might allow government to pry more effectively into our lives. As walked through the Microsoft campus in Redmond, Washington justouside Seattle the only city people move to so they cat be closer tomature, asa writer once joked I couldn't help noticing a wiitarian ‘quality about the place. Here, Gates is known by all simply as “Bill, and there's a collegiate feel to the buildings. As for the people who work for Bill Gates, they walk around looking relaxed and just fin ome earnest Microsoft employees insist on wearing shorts year round, regardless ofthe temperature outside), but thers also an ai of ‘overwhelming purposefanes. You are ks likely to find tic or si hanging on the back ota door than a seeping bag—for catnaps ducing those long northwestern nights, programming the next generation Microsoft software, Just how far the appearance ofthe place matched the temperament ofits maker [would only learn after Iba Building 8 and climbed to Floor 2, where the chaieman of Mir has his surprisingly ost office ohn Kennedy: More's alot of speculation these days about how the Internet will change our lives 'm particulary interested in how you ‘think it will change poitcs and people's interaction with government. Bill Gates: There's an opportunity to improve polities and cemocra whenever you have an advance in communications technology. The Tateret is tool that lets you find information in a much better wa than anything ese, Historically, most tools of communication wer cither broadeast—sehich meant your material had t appeal o millions and millions of people—or personal and able to address only a ver small audience. But the Internet provides single individual with access ‘o vinually unlimited information on any given topic How can that improve the politica process? Will e's say they're cutting $5 billion fom some program inthe b et Mos people don'thave enough background to know whether thisis wise move of not. They don't know the key politi iss, what the trade-off are, of how this particular budget iter has been spent histo cally With the Internet no only can you take th it linked t background information, but you can also reach outind other people who are interested in that issue. The Internet is scl able in the sense that if something really catches your eye, you can ome as educated and involved on the subject as you want tobe So one of the things that the Internet has changed Is the dynamle between olocted officials and thelr constituents. Suddenly, the folks in Washington aren't the only ones with access to all the rele- vant Information on a given issue, Clearly, elected officials are more accountable now. For example, if re isa big vote in Congress, I can quickly find out exaetly how my congressperson voted and even what he or she had to say. You cannot get that level of detailed information in a national news article, About 40 percent of US. homes have personal computers now, and that's rising, So the implications ofthis kind of accountability are significant Constituents also can now swamp thelr representatives with data 2s opposed to the other way around. Wall, it must be prety hard with the paper mail nowadays, because peo: ple try to bombard a congressperson’s office with various opinions Electronically it's lot easier. Congresspeople can use e-mail as a sort of poll to see how many people were for something and how many were against it, though [feel sorry forthe person who reads the president's e-mail, because I'm often copied on the same junk e-mail. [Laughs] That sounds like Ross Perot's notion of a direct democracy. Is that where wo're headed? In the future, direct democra will be feasible. An extreme example fentative demo ly Think repr J personally 1 think representative ee am mate as yi ae ae ene mace rm Soom ce means wera Sanne anon os line and talking to somebody ina governmental dpartmen, roe atives can be a fot mi tow Burst dame nea is ali ou sy Oy hth toro oma te rat ht te cot fs eng crises hes fer toa seo comment hone cern nou trong ou are yo teat eho chang tt ae ur comet a ies Tecuts both wi tat with any cltural group you belong, On the othe hand, phys communities were edly primary when We were al just fring ts gether and there were no telephones and no books. As you make the eran ples to people gous peony are perl ‘eco. Bot tho physieal communities impose culeral oun daedeia 4 suonge wy than hen you ar feof those constraint and doa fave land ofatachmen at nie commantio ver oplac physical communis altogether? their omputers: But people shouldn't underestimate how much we willbe aking 3-D images of youself hat wl enable you to sic and convere with people, play gues with peoples and los of neat chings Weil ever eplace the idea "Les gov apinicwgethor or“Letsclinb« mountain ogeher” In Gch escent eee with one another Ler take shopping as am example, Someone shopping pul uilitain. need ogetsoapsso gc on he Ine et Pe in.4p and the soup gets delivered Bt oncom crag bing is an experience with « bunch of people, when sen aera window shop anda tha In no may deer 'e computer mean you ‘Wall, there are alot of people involved optimistic about what technolo there's ith technology who are very 1g¥ will provide ot to be a way of structu ing incentives so government involvement. They tend to think 2s to greatly reduce So you will probably find a lot mor ians in the technology sector than anywhere eben toe What about people on the internet? The Internet has grown enough now that you f cal stripes out there think the Internet represents, why you had Bob Dole giving out his Wek,Bill Gates (one fom page 80) aes ina presen Sal debt Every poian wana tobe enone withthe frre There's no couney where Te fone whee there hat ben ner song the tp plical eden siting down and ing withme Parfit the latina suc fling about how tercauntry en ep echnaoge advances and pao tut ing oes theses with echnolog and te bgt frre tharcomes wth tat ‘What do you see as government's role in devo ping the internet? Bill Clinton has drawn analo- ‘les botwoen the information superhighway and Dwight D. Eisenhower's highway building ‘rogram in the '50s. ‘The highway analogy would suggest that the government should be deeply involved. The gov- ernment built the highways. But in the case of the Internet, no one is suggesting thatthe gox- ‘emment needs to do anything of the kind. ‘Whenever you have something new lik thi, it’ best forthe government to sort fst back and sce how it develops. And where there ae problems, fine, the government can step in. For cxample, some people said, Let's have the government come in and set standards on the Internet, 0 all these systems that are formatted differently wall work together. Thank goodness the government didn’t choose to do that, because the de facto standards that have evolved are working super, super well. So to date, the government's role in setting standards has been quite modest. But aron't some now laws necessary to deal with this now world? I's always surprising how well old concepts carry ‘overinto the new medium. I's overly idealistic 10 ‘ac like, Ob, the Internet is the one place where people should be able ro do whatever they wish present child pornography, d scams, libel people, steal copyrighted material. Societys values have not changed fundamentally just because i's an Internet page. "Take copyright. Sure, there should be some clarifications about copyright, but the ‘ld principles work surprisingly wel in the new medium, Anybody who says you have to start ‘over—I don't agree with that. Wil i be possible to maintain our privacy In a digital word? Privacy is a very interesting issue. I think people aca litle naive about how much data exist about them electronically today. Some countries ae al ready issuing these “smartcard” with ll your vi- tal information on thems you use them to claim medical benefit to vote to identify yourselftothe bank, and soon. ‘Sounds Orwelian. You know, the degree of privacy afforded each in- dividual wil always bea political decision. I's a decision for each society. The U-S. isthe ult mate wecbelieve-in-privay country 0 the B>¥- cenment will probably never issue smart cards. [Ac the same tim example, the U of terrorism, people might decide to draw the line about privacy a litle different ‘Speaking ofthe government, do you think that the antitrust investigations brought against Microsoft are fair? Well, the industry we are in is very important. We've been immensely successful, so at some attitudes ean change. If, for ‘went through a terrible period point it was going to be worthwhile for the gov- exnment to look at our industry. We don't have any issue with the way the laws are written or even with the idea that very successful compa: nies like ours ate going to be looked into What's interesting is that in terms of power in the marketplace, none of us in the world of high technology have the kind of power that, si, Coke has in the soft drink market. In our bust ress, not even the most suecessfal companies, like IBM or Microsoft, can stand sill IF we stand still, we are going to get replaced pretty ‘quickly, Our business is less forgiving than any ‘other that [can think of We reached a consent with the Justice Department freely and and we are perfectly satisfied with what deer fai came out ofthat. But as long as we are success: ful, competitors will ry to exploit the situation and ty to hobble us as a competitor. [After protracted negotiations, Microsoft signed a consent decree with the Department of Justice in July 1994 to settle charges of antitrust violations. The company agreed to monitor itelf-primarily ta consider whether new acquisitions would lead Microsoft to further dominate the sofware market, and to cease the acquisition fit would) What about the criticism that Microsoft's dom- Inant position in the industry 1s anthcompoti- tive, that the industry should be reconfigured ‘0 that a thousand flowers can bloom instead of one big tree that dwarfs everything else? Anybody who would say that doesn’t understand four business. There are more new companies created in our industry than in all the other in ddusties put together. Wouldn't the competition and variety be oven _sroator in the PC Industry without a dominant player like Microsoft? No, Someone had to come in and play the role that we pay thats, create the standards and really evangelize the platform. Why are there a hun: dred times more software companies today than before? I’s because they are writing software for 1 standard environment that Microsoft created, Why are there so many bardware companies of- fering a these choices? Because there is a stan- dard hardware environment that we created, How do you respond to the erticiam that, bast- cally, Microsoft behaves toward now entries Into the fleld the way IBM behaved when Microsoft was just getting started? Your early ‘success was predicated on maintaining an open software environment, promoting the compatibility of your products with other prod ucts. But now that you are a market leader, ‘some are saying you advocate a closed soft- ware architecture. ‘The word open isjust an abused word. It started ‘out as a slogan for workstation vendors. What counts are innovative software products that work well with what people have. We and other companies created the current computer indus. try regime: You can buy one brand of F ‘Monday, another on Tuesday, and your soft- ware sill works and you geta choice. This has made computing very successful, and we're the key clement there, So the openness that counts is the basis on which we and everybody els: compete, and because of our products, we'r doing very well in that regime. Ralph Waldo Emerson said that “an institution is the lengthened shadow of one man.” In what sonse Is Microsoft a reflection of you? Tin the sense that we love great software, We'rc very optimistic about what software ean do. We're very product oriented, very much looic ing forthe new things we ean do. It's bitof a engineering culture here, fairly fast moving. \ lot of companies waste a lot of time congratt Laing themself ABBA going el When Uaioe tical 1 Stove et entered iat a gerne with IG for a news channel/We ate called MSNBC. You've slo recontyInunched Stato, an onine magarne. Aayou get deper int tne inormaton busines, il your own vows color the contont ofthe news yu prove the wey Rupert Murdoch has et the FoxNews Chane! tas an adda to the perceived er bes of te eatblshment roca? Tm no interested nding that. Pm surprised ope able to ein quay people wih soprouch mean, thas wey dangerous and Pets inapprope.. He cans he's jo reacting tha the fst he pres has iba bis personaly don seth The pope You hire oe editors and writes, they have thei ow opinions Tat ister ak My pb sworn 2 rea get soinare compan ney etc co kxpiiy lel viens separ Wyo you hoop thom sparse? Because the alate i inappropriate have nny penonal views, Then there's Missa Company that gtd in very few poe things Mom ves ae those you expe fom somebaiy who fes like hes been hose very luk an thatthe resources under scons mandate ely sce’ resource And hase be eer about how a going to fuel tone backin. Hand eduaon pret, Land ponte son onl Tn ery bgon the United WoBill Gates bo you mind whother | ask you if you're a Domo- ‘rat, a Republican, or an Independent? Well i's a tricky issue because, as Isai, [try to keep my political views separate fiom the compa ny’s, Fwent to an event where I said Twas a De- mocrat, and that was covered publily. When it ness is treated and ‘managed, L wouldn't subscribe to lot of emoc- ratic views. When it comes to social issues, you'd find me very much on the Democratie side. What did you think of Ted Turner's notion that extremely wealthy people like you and [billion- aire investor] Warren Buffett would donate ‘more of your money if someone published @ list of biggest donors similar to Forbes mage- Zine's list of wealthiest individuals? Ted said some things that just weren’t true, He said that Warren and I didn't give money away, because we want to be high on the list of the \wealthiest—that is ust a total fabrication, War- renand I have both said that we don’t believe in passing huge amounts of wealth on to our heirs and so, one way or another, my wealth will go to various causes. I think the fascination with ‘wealth is always going to be there. It's unfortu- nate in that it creates a simplistic view of who I am and what I care about. I's sort of an inva« sion of privacy. I wish the list wasn't there. But, hey, what's free about the press if you can't make list like that, you know? So you're planning to give most of your money away whon you die? 'm giving away $30 to $40 million a year now, and [since 1992, T have donated $200 million) to my foundation, So I'm already doing some things. But asa percentage of my wealth I'l do most of it when T ean put a full-time effort into that. ‘That's the only caveat. My work now is focused on trying to keep Microsoft successful. How does the immensity of your wealth affect ‘your lite? Tea very strange thing. I think i's unusual that meone can have so much money. It strikes you as strange? Oh, very Are you kidding? Somebody who has this much money has a command on society's resources. In my view, it ll comes down to how What do you see on the “road ahead” for the ‘Microsoft Corporation? We're based on a vision of computers becoming an incredible tool for everybody. Ie’s a vision that’s very far from being realized. Computers can't listen to what you're saying. They can't speak to you. They can’t see. They don't learn. I mean, computers are still pretty limited today. My entire life has been devoted to the future, and cxciting new things are on the way, There is something. called Moore's Law, which says that basically every two years computers get twice as good. That'sa sure thing, 102 George Power Surge (continued from page 93) politi se 211 . cher Democrats to oppo : “The funding was easy The “old economy companies har seve Sion Valley—ba accounting firm Tere save as much a5 $1 milion apie Trae ‘gains volo Lawsuits (TAF, wign’s umbrella organization (which was formed with help from the California Chamber of Commer). In ation, Valley compar wrote exceedingly large checks: Cisco gave $610 00 ntl and Sun Microsystems La cach. “It’s chump change,” says Cypress CE ‘TJ. Rodger, “T gave $100,000. My company will spend $100,000 daring this telephone Some ofthe money went tthe Boe “Technology Alliance, which was busy meetin candidates and writing checks Though Tom Proulx says it supported aspirants from both ‘major parties, the CTA was especially generous to Democrats who had opposed their party organization on 211. At one meeting, Larry Stone says, he pestered a high-tech executive on behalf of a candidate who hadn't received a promised donation, “So this guy pulled out his checkbookand wrote check for $10,000. Just 10 ‘get me out of his hair” Working with a political consultant named Wade Randle, the NO campaign pursued a strategy thar would have done more-seasoned politicos proud. While Randlett and Celia Fischer, co-director ofthe state's Democratic co- cordinated campaign, lad the groundwork, feed- ing the White House background on 211, local politicians such as Stone and San Jose mayor Susan Hammer reinforced how important the issue was tothe Valley. Brook Byers was delegated to land the president. At a July 23 fundraiser at fashion designer Susie Tompkins's San Francisco penthouse, Byers approached Clinton, who told him he was against the initiative Two weeks late, aftera numberof high-level phone cals between ‘Washington and the West Coast, Clinton met with several Valley executives inthe cafeteria of SanJose's John Muir Middle School and agreed to go on the record opposing 211. The Valle had got what it needed from Clinton, : In the weeks following the Muir school m ing, Doerr and a handful of ae, the phones, putting together a Valley endorse- ‘ment of the president. Th itbecause the pres. ‘ent came outand kid ther fanny On September I1, Clinto en Homi an imine dinner ck Ca ore of the «brokers. That night es ., his then chief of and me valley executive haat sland age be # le mushrooms. As they talhed about swith heirloon swith chantere eats cole nerypion, and e*P $50,000 2 head. 11 of which—the 7 rampant spect . Mu politi pee act of ralley's new pow ta eceries thei ation afthe statement “I'm fi aie aly liberal.” By whic really means he'd like the capita owe aking him not ques D pee psolutely no interest in ban aa ariage (making him not Tecan). In the past, most Valleyites jt te lef alone to goto workin their Te ‘one midlevel executive put it, “As lo Reserve chairman] Alan Greensp the country, we assume everything’ On the far side of this spectrum TJ. Rodgers, whose mantra is “Free free minds.” Rodgers says he’s 50 0 idea ofthe CTA that he refused to s during the 211 battle. Rodgers say {$200,000 to the campaign and had s $100,000. “Tom Proulx called me u wanted me to give the second $1( political action committee. And hhow it was going to start the politica working all ofthe legislature, all of to get things for Silicon Valley. We having these surprises. We've gotta tively to get what we want."” Rodg his cash. “This concept—you've got forget screwed—I don’t buy it,” he: ‘To Doerr, that’s the old Valley tal think there's any turning back fi activism,” he says. “The days of ¢ in garages are over. The Valley important cconomic interests. th and involve the public.” No one, say: involvement in ofthe 211 ca that has this ex understand th; ur, it doesn’t s Doerr, expects Politics to stay att Paign. “There won’ vel of intensity, and at.” But as Wade R: $40 million work cose ah mu = million orth of intensity. worth of i f them or Politics, i could ey decid a le they wai i = be more amenable to, them, few years by spending m effect. IFBY INVOKING SHE FUTURE. YOU KNOW, OUR CHILDREN DESERVE A BETTER ONE, AND BILL CLINTON 1S BUILDIN CN Etat pi ees » OVERUSED IN THE POLITI- CAL LEXICO tet Ue S| DETAILS ARE, Lat 3 NEW WORLD NAGS ea | fay a Este) pew ts a |-e ENNIUM TO aa YOUR CHIN STRAP AND# CRI Ld uaa Li EAR 2020TRANSPORTATION TRAINS, PLANES, AND SKYCARS BY JAKE TAPPER rotorypes are due ‘ut in 2004 Inthe world of locomotives, the Germans and the Japanese hhave been working on magnetic evtation—maglet; tor shor—which propels tains above a ral of magnetic energy at 3) miles per hour Bu ‘one mil of track may cost up to $20 million, so the U.S. is setting for IS ‘new high-speed trains on the Boston-to-Washingron route by 19 top speed of 150 miles per hour Most vehicles ofthe future willbe guised by the$19 billion Global Positioning System, which is already fly oper ational, The atelt-hased navigation system allows travelers to determine theiethree-dimensional position anytime, anywhere, in any weather. X-RAYS BY MARINSCORKER.Sensors if they have any hope o ‘mated Highway Systen drive themselves on flying commuter vehicle will be flying objects: NASA is currently ESTIMATED PRICE. OF A SKYCAR: $995,000 Ptr Pa cdShimoda, «coastal town in co by an urgent call summoning ne seamless journey With the aide ofa Skyeag, EDUCATION uMuchasand THE THREE T'S BY RICHARD J. MURNANE AND FRANK LEVY verten hours, OF Japan, the ep co afew Lanes of automated highway an HSCT travel orwo, you coull make the tripin jus ie your geage will make the sme journey based in Wachington, Di Joke THE ENVIRONMENT BUGS TO THE RESCUE! BY BRAD WETZLER NOW A feel rom pers r | emp faraete Sten (ON THE CUTTING EDGE y, ve of wrangling between act has led to an eanh-fienlly cluded, are easier to preserve than rea. In 19 Dees phase out the gases in aerosol cans aa rei ahole in the ozone layer. In recent greater attention (and funds) species, such aspire grasses in and gray woles in the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, back in Washington, emviro-buff Al sill has to ear his green stipes inthe o rewrites of he Clean Water Act, which p river, and the Superfund program, which cleans up contaminated land, 12020 Because Chin's prospering population will eat more meat, more ‘ofthe eanh's open spaces willbe converted to grazing terrain, With ewer forests to absorb the carbon dioxide exhaled by humans, weather will get. POLLUTION- EATING MICROBES: » amenecotscr WILL GOBBLE eee UP OCEAN OIL SPILLS. praying mantises, and was thei fields. And pollution eating microbes, engineered by scientists, will higher temps mel lacers and more violent storms wallop the ‘coasts, Already the new hot aris allow ing wopical plants and insecso thrive in places they never dd before As humans adape to these changes, scientits and politicians will carn to ‘ead of spraying pesticides, tomo row’s farmers and agribusiness execs will tke up “integrated pest ma ment” releasing hondes of ladybu which feed on erop-destroying insets in gobble up ol spills chemical leaks, and mounds of garbage. Brad Wetsler it a New Mevco- Per ere rn as Drea WOW In the spring of 1994, Congress ttation’s education bill,nown as the Goals 2000: Educate America other interference from Wash Act. Despite the aversion tH ington, now flourishing in the states, main thrust of Goals 2000, which is « standards in public schools. For most of this century, sl fen by dumbing stablish higher aca cused on preventing kids from dropping out, ‘down course content. After an infamous 1983 report called “A Na tion at Risk” concluded that there was “a rising tide of me in the nation’s schools, more than 45 states began developing ac ‘demic standards to restore what had become the almost meaning less title of high school graduate The push for higher standards has been fueled by the realization that thee ation that was good enough for the 1970s economy i jst, ft good enough for today's. Now, certain skills, known as sft si determine earnings much more than they did in the past. Jerom Murphy, the dean of Harvard's Graduate School of Education, sum them up as the three T's: thinking, camwork, and technology 2020 In addition to reading, writing, mathematics, and ¢ Tieracy hi school diploma will certify master: ills. now jobs in an economy in which mi required simple tasks: assembly-line work, for instance—are done by computers and robot These skills include the ability to make written and o presenta: tions and to work in groups to solve problems. Tests will no longer be multiple-choice. Using virual-realty tech: nology, students will have to ¢ complex simulated problem computers, using video, text, and sound. Scores for these exercises wl smake teaser for parents to know whether schools are elfetive In fact, imeractive computer programs will overtake textbooks as ool. Talking computers and other multimeat technology will allow students to participate as actors in simulated such as the Battle of Gettysburg, problem of global warming in three historical settin mensions. Without leavin, School, kids will als ae world of work. Finally innovation will be the 5 graienet be the norm, thanks t Richard J. Murnane ond Frank Levy ae the au New Basic Skills (Free Py ae rs of Teaching theIN 1982 ata Uae ayy AOU ANAS GAMA ON RCO RN sae Sonn i's ieee TSS atid TEN ANS‘THE CUTTING EDGE CRIME ACASHLESS COUNTRY BY JAMES NEFF NOW Crime rates were down by 9 percent nationwide in 1996, thanks in part to new crime-fighting techniques. Community policing, for example, was introduced in. New York City in the 1990s by the former police commissioner William Bratton, who be- Jieves that small crimes ead to lager ones. Thus, the police let pan- handlers, prostitutes, and squeegee men (who offer to wash car ‘windows, or else) know they must behave or face arrest, Cops aso question small-time hoods about neighborhood problems and crimes. Since 1992, crime has dropped an astounding 36 percent in New York City a trend that appears to be sweeping the country. 1n other promising news, the crack epidemic appears tobe dy- ing out nationwide, perhaps as the second generation of potential Porn Tier TOW ere era Sonic Pee Oars era users realizes the devastation the drug wreaked on its parents. Inner-city drug use, in general, has fallen substantially. More kids are staying in school and off the streets; black and white teens are now graduating from high school atthe same rate, "We're not go- ing to sce crime rate increases,” predicts James Austin of the National sme and Delinquency ‘ouncil on 2020 Despite this optimistic picture, recent opinion polls show that Americans—perhaps thanks to the movie industry’s apoca- Iyptic visions—conjure up a future filled with frightening images of violence: rampant drug abuse, a gun in every glove compart- ment, and a RoboCop on every corner. But ask some leading, criminologists and crime fighters, and ajarringly different picture emerges: clean streets, grafit-fiee subways, well-groomed parks with unattended children playing until dusk. Many crime experts believe this generally rosy scenario is highly likely if several cur- rent tends continue: Violent crime rates keep falling; new meth- ods of crime fighting take hold; and we move closer to a cashless in which the ubiquity of electronic transactions will rip ple the underground economy ‘And there's also a fall-back measure, Experts prediet that i carceration will outstrip higher education as the number-one consumer of state dollars. An archipelago of new prisons will house one out of every 192 people in America, twice the rate in Singapore and 14 times the rate in Japan. Criminals will be young, more violent an recidvi, and frely unreachable The majority will be males, ages 14 to 17, from poor, abusive, or dysfunctional homes, with slim job prospects. "We're going to 4, director of the crim have two societies,” says Peter Green se en ater td KILLER COOTIES BY ARNO KARLEN AIDS, Lyme disease, Legionnaires’ disease, toxic shock syndrome Ebola fever E.colinfection (strain 0157:H17), and about a dozen others ‘And each time a disease has been brought under control, another ha resurfaced-—diphtheria in Russia, cholera and dengue hemorthagi fi aed eee an WORSI-CASE SCENARIO? tuberculosis “American inner cities. New illnesses have a number of sources; human contact with mi crobes from other species (AIDS, for example, which came from African monkeys); changes in the ‘environment (Lyme disease, from POPULATED PLANET reforestation and suburban devel- opment); new technology (Le- disease, from scien, mhrcnces (CHOKED 10 (toxic shock syndrome) and their adaptation to antibiotics (drug- resistant tuberculosis) EXTINCTION BY A LUNG ATTACKING VIRUS. Prosperous ones as they have for decades. America will have aged, and age brings greater risk of infection. People over 60 will benefit, per haps more than others, from advances in medicine, but they will face new threats as well. Cancer treatment and organ transplants will be ‘more successful, although one resulting problem may be greater vul 2020 For decades to come, the toll of infections will be worst in poor and unstable nations, but new dis. cases will continue to appear in the Os FACTOIDS Number of AN OVER- co Cra) 3 milion Ae SL Dred)nerability to infections after surge wllapend more ine in hospitals and ee RoE He long they drug-resistant microbes. and nursing homes, exposed tothe Some people ss the Worst-case scenario: an 8 choked to death by lung-attacking Keeping our food and wat ter clean, and ve Imoitrinfstiows diseases and miroial rupsee on eo Human extinction, however, is unlikely not east become te penn, immune stem isa marvel of esourehilness Inte oe fact of nature, and microbes share the environment with Fe a microbes, we are the environment! The greatest Seal eae eros but our lure to proectounsehes a? narbeME Amo Karlen is the author of Man and Microbes (Touchstone) EX & DRUGS MICROBICIDES AND PROZAC BY MELISSA ROTH NOW Sex, as everybody knows, can be dangerous, and itwillony get ‘worse. According to the Institute of Medicine, sexually transmitted dis- eases (STDs) are the “hidden epidemic,” the driving force behind the spread of HIV in the heterosexual community, as well asthe reason for the surging Non-HIV sexual diseases cost taxpayers $10 billion annually accord ing tothe institute, but the public sector spends only one dollar to pre vent STDs for every $43 spent on treatment and other costs. “We spend less [in real dollars] oday on STDs than we did in 1950,” says Peggy Clarke, president of the American Social Health Association, As forillicit drugs, teen use has almost doubled since 1991, according to the University of Michigan's Monitoring the Future study, and there is no shortage of blame: Bll Clinton, Nancy Reagan, the CIA, Snoop Doggy Dog, 1960s parents, depraved youth. Inthe meantime, jails are xerflowing with nonviolent drug offenders, while rapists wait for vax Cancies, and governors scramble to pay for more prisons. recent pols and new state laws are any indication, the time is ipe for drug policy re form. In 1996 voters in California and Arizona approved legalizing cer- fain drugs, such as marijuana, for medical use, and in Arizona, they ‘ven agreed to replace jail sentences with rehab for pety drug offenders. (es of tubal pregnancy, inferiliry and cervical cancer 2020 Dr. Felicia Stewart, director of reproductive health at the Kaiser Family Foundation, foresees a day when al of us will carey a date dec sion maker, a sort of Magic 8-Ball with a builtin sweat sensor to detect, whether person has an STD. Get your potential partner to palm the Sensor, anda digital message wll etyou know whether you should pro seed. If you forget your Magic 8-Ball a imple home-based STD test will render a quick verdict the morning after. “There will be a code on your wothbrush that says, Get a chlamytia checkup today says tewart Also, the Department of Health and Human Services recent- Iydedicated $100 million to research microbicides, el tat kill sperm, TI, and STDs while kecping reproduetive organs intact. Inthe year 2020, miceobicides wll be par ofthe daily regimen, ke deodorant, On the drug front: According to Drug Strategies, nonprofit think tank, future prevention efforts willbe based on developing kis’ con jques to lp them say'no fidence, using peer-led role-playing techon Cte ad to drugs. Meanwhile, grownups may be saying yes to performance enhancing drugs. “Prozac has become more culturally acceptable says Ethan Nadelmana, director of the Lindesmith Center, a drug policy and research institute. “As these drugs improve, we may see ‘employers preferring to hire people who take these drugs.” Nadel mann also sees greater acceptance of psychedelic drugs—citing the federal government's recent decision to resume a long-mothballed study of LSD asa treatment fr aleoholics—and acceptance of timu- lants, such as low-dose cocaine in coca tea, which is widely con sumed in Bolivia and is considered no more dangerous than caffeine. Melisa Roth sa feelance writer who covers youth and heath issues WARFARE REALLY SMART WEAPONS BY HOLLY YEAGER NOW Techies designing the weapons of tomorrow are looking for ways to wage war while keeping ous troops out of harm's way. ‘The buzz inthe aris what the Pentagon calls unmanned aerial ve- haces. Using radar and sensors to scan the earth below, these drone ‘now limited to spy missions can loiter over an area for hours, an a sigament too risky for human pilots. Bombing runs sans pilots could ‘be 20 years away. Trekkers take note: Airborne lasers to jumble enemy clecronics are only a decade away: Inspired by Ronald Reagan's Star ‘Wars dream, the Pentagon is also at work on a handful of schemes to WELL ceioed ANACARRYAAC tee a a GADGET page Se eae WITH SWEAT sti Siar cp SENSORS PPD aor ret WHETHER OUR sss DATE HAS Petes AN STD. into enemy tersitory. With dreadnought will be far battlefield.” The plan is to wire crew of just 50, this ururistic all the good guys with commu Prony tcnications and mapping devices that would give them the location of friend and foe alike 2020 One hing is certain about war in the future: Itwill ake place ‘on new battlefields. One of them almost surely will be outer space, Center for ‘maps out wwarns Andzew F. Krepinevich, J, who, as director ofthe Strategic and Budgetary Assessments ia Washington, D. Per ott world has spent on ie ide in the So Seen 7 milion detailed scenarios of potential fut 16). Whom America will be fighting is superpower, such as China, Or the weigh in on civil wars and regional disputes in, for Middle Bast or between the Koreas. (North Korea is sa ballistic missile that has a range of 2,170 miles wars (2 nuclear Iran closes off the Strait of Horm in 21 harder to predi could threaten Alaska and Hawai within a decade.) ROGUE WARRIORS COULD WREAK HAVOC IN CYBERSPACE WHERE AN ATTACK ON US. COMPUTER SYSTEMS COULD DISABLE THE MILITARY. They could also be dangerous in cyberspace, where an attack on computer systems could disrupt the nation and disable the miltary—a sort of real-life version of the movie WirGames case may be, sensors in space, on planes, and on the ground will deliver a crys talline view of any confit And the details will be fed 10 more precise versions ofthe (Gulf War's “smare weapons Long-range missiles and armed drones will handle many of the tasks of today's tanks and fighter planes, 0 Uncle Sam may need fewer good men and women. But smaller ground forces may sill be needed to lay claim to cities, and in particular, strategic ste, such a sky. serapers and tunnels. Rogue warriors will become more danger fous, armed with chemical and biolog ical weapons, ballis- tic missile systems, cheap satellite imag. and pinpoint Holly Yeager writes about the ‘military for Hearst Newspapers: FOOD TAKEOUT IS IN BY MICHELLE STACEY NOW Here, on the cusp ofthe millennium, you can walk into a st permarket in a midwestern city and buy enoki mushrooms, Thai peanut sauce, and baby arugula. But every day 7 percent of Ame Cans eat at MeDonald’s. Hundreds of new products are low- oF nonfat, yet young Americans have gained cight pounds in the last ten years. And while scientists have enginecred healthier foods pork that is about 30 percent leaner and eggs that have less choles last 30 years, ean terol-serving sizes have nearly doubled in the celing out any waistline benefits. Federal efforts to improve our dicts have failed. Introduced in the carly 1990s after battles with meat and dairy lobbies, the USDA's re ‘ised Food Guide Pyramid recommends at least five total daily sery \ge consumption remains ings of fruits and vegetables. But avers stubbornly at about three and a half servings (perhaps, in part, be: ause the same year that the National Cancer Institute spent {$400,000 to promote the new guidelines, Kellogg spent $1 million to ugar Frosted Flakes) "To add tothe confusion, the rich have swapped diets with the poor Before the wealthy learned to revere a Third World dict of grains and vegetables they gorged on meats, cheese, and sweets, now the materi als of cheap fast-food. These days, the poor are also dying of the so- «alled diseases of affluence, such as diabetes, stroke, and heart disease advertise just one cerea 2020 ‘Two factors will always matter most in food sclestion: price ‘and convenience. As a result, Harry Balzer, a consumer-marketing rescarcher based in Illinois, guesses that hamburgers will rank, as they have since at least 1975, among the top three favorite restau rant entrées. But the most salient point about the future of food, it seems, will not be what we're eating but who is preparing it. Cook: ing at home is likely to be reduced entirely to hobby status. “The kitchen will be the great recreation spot,” claims Clark Wolf, a New York-based food and restaurant consultant. The vast majority of daily meals will be prepared by professionals, to be taken home or delivered (perhaps to specially designed, refrigerated drop-off slots inthe facades of homes) Isa prepared-food society a sign of cultural decline ora scheduling ‘ump far people who have better things to do than chop and sauté? Says Balzer, who has studied the increase in take-out eating, “We'd be mov- ing in a direction we all want to go in—toward having our own cook Michelle Stacey isa magazine writer and the author of Consumed: Why Americans Love, Hate, and Fear Food (Touchstone). © FACTOIDS penton ti in 1993 Fe] Peete Pye