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Soal 1
MOVING AVERAGE N=3 PERIODE
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2- 3 kum. 4 7/1
Periode Aktual yt Forecast Y^t Error Abs Error Kum Abs Error MAD
1 154
2 126
3 118
4 131 132.7 -1.67 -1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67
5 160 125.0 35.00 33.33 35.00 36.67 18.33
6 159 136.3 22.67 56.00 22.67 59.33 19.78
7 170 150.0 20.00 76.00 20.00 79.33 19.83
8 162 163.0 -1.00 75.00 1.00 80.33 16.07
9 183 163.7 19.33 94.33 19.33 99.67 16.61
10 173 171.7 1.33 95.67 1.33 101.00 14.43
11 187 172.7 14.33 110.00 14.33 115.33 14.42
12 187 181.0 6.00 116.00 6.00 121.33 13.48
13 182.3
EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
ALFA 0.2
misal digunakan nilai forecast periode 0 = Y1 = 154
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2- 3 kum. 4 7/1
Periode Aktual yt Forecast Y^t Error Abs Error Kum Abs Error MAD
1 154 154.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 126 154.0 -28.00 -28.00 28.00 28.00 14.00
3 118 148.4 -30.40 -58.40 30.40 58.40 19.47
4 131 142.3 -11.32 -69.72 11.32 69.72 17.43
5 160 140.1 19.94 -49.78 19.94 89.66 17.93
6 159 144.0 14.96 -34.82 14.96 104.62 17.44
7 170 147.0 22.96 -11.86 22.96 127.58 18.23
8 162 151.6 10.37 -1.49 10.37 137.95 17.24
9 183 153.7 29.30 27.81 29.30 167.25 18.58
10 173 159.6 13.44 41.25 13.44 180.69 18.07
11 187 162.2 24.75 66.00 24.75 205.44 18.68
12 187 167.2 19.80 85.80 19.80 225.24 18.77
171.2
200
180
160
140
120
100
permintan aktual
80
moving average n=3
60 eksponential smoothing
40
20
bulan
Berdasarkan nilai MAD yg lebih kecil dan grafik maka moving average n=3 dipilih
Soal 2
X1 = 217 α 0.3
T1 = 0 β 0.1
Bulan Permintaan