102 Outcomes ult obtained from an experiment o aN ‘tossed, then the outcomes are head and tai, St 87 Outcomes. e.g, when a Ta tri: +103 Random Experiment hs experiment a Produces different results even if it is Tepeated a large number times: Un ler similar condition is called a random experiment. For example, the sing of a fair coin is a random experiment, . 7104 Sample Space set of all possible outcomes of an cx; ed by S. Or the set of all possible oute: sce and is denoted by S, for example: . @ Insingle flip of a coin $=(H,T) (i) In tossing two coins simultaneously, S=(HH,HT,TH,TTY |, (ii) In throwing a single dice S = (1,2,3,4,5,6) 7105 Sample Point houtcome in a sample space is called sample point or a number of x sample space Sanelement. 7106 Event periment is called sample space and is ‘omes of a random variable called sample Ms event is subset of a sample space for example, in tossing a coin the event may be Beta head or tail. mm experiment is called Simple dice = (1) The only one possible outcome of the given rando ‘eiteg. A = a number less than 2 appears ona B.Com Part~i q ‘ten Statics & Mathamatlet 163 CPD.¥ sngom experiment an ymbers With a pai, iy, i the F game ample SPaCe 8. any , ¢ 5a “mi the ‘ sie event. The nul i amar enn a impo ple event is that “7 go¢,, 7% 2, imposs time when the experimen, i ime €.8. head and ia" , Event eat a take place stutwalty Exel n take P same tt at the od » events © formed, i. the 10 vaily «event 0 Frotuslly exclusive eve (vi) Exhaustive Events ossible evel Fits (1.2.3 ~ 6) eriment. Throwing - experiment. T 1S 8 dice can result from an i that can re s a list of all ! gives possible events . Events (vii) Independent Eve currence of one event had no impact o e said to be Independent if 0% a eos heenié x ral oe suppose event A is the drawing Queen from, te cue ~ event B is tail on tossing a fair coin, the events are independent pack of $2 cards and e (viii) Dependent Events Two events are said to be dependent if occurrence of one event had impact on the sccurence of ober, €; if we draw a card from pack of $2 playing cards and don’ replace it before drawing the second card then the result by the second draw is| dependent on the first draw (ix) Equally Likely Events Two events A, B are equally | ually likely events if they hav, 6 im tossing a fair coin, head is as cide 7 DEFINITIONS OF PR There are two proaches to define L © equal chances of occurrence likely to occur 4s tail, OBABILITY the Probability Objective ApproachProbability Objective Subleck: hors | | Ses { sical or | Relative | — | i initi | Frequency | Axiomatic \priori Definition |__Approach | Approach VE APPROACHES pct are three different definitions: @ Classical or Priori Definition an experiment can result in equally likely, mutually exclusive and qihaustive outcomes, m of which are favourable to the occurrence of an event Athen the probability of event A is defined, as the ratio "/p i.e. Number of Outcomes Favourable to A _ n(A) Number of Possible Outcomes _—n(S) This definition can be applied in a situation in which all possible outcomes und the outcomes in the event A can be counted. For example, when a coin is tossed the probability of tail is assumed to be 4/9. (i Relative Frequency or a Posterior Definition If an experiment is. required n times, where n is very large, under uniform conditions and if an event A occurs m times then the probability of A is defined as: m P(A) =.lim— noo 1 This definition is closer to the real world situations. If we are interested to W whether or not a coin is true, we can toss a coina large number of times and the number of trials can be counted. The probability of tail is given by: Number of tails actually observed Ptnail) = Total number of throws The ratio may or may not be equal to Yo. “ Statisn Part-I ‘istics & Mathematics 165 ava ‘Scanned with CamScannerProbability ] Chapter 7 (iti) AS ‘This definition is | probability of an ev p(a) = 0 Iemenns | y must be = whi ed on certail axioms Wt bY the not be negative, ent onl ¢ ty of an ev 6. PS) =! 08 p(Ayst a hat probabili b. Total probability is alee between ss equal (0 one | Probability always lies oand ti ppROACH confidence or belief re re of this confide This prob 2 SUBJECTIVE mn varaing the occurrence of So He called the subjective ela nility is based on the pe person, who is determining the Probability, Pee renowy avhether & particular politcal pant tof this probability is made by wil abilities for the same cee in tis based on s The numerical 7 the occurrence intelligence and know’ example, we may be inter succeed in a country oF no! experts. Different persons may at the same time. of an event. ledge of the ested {0 1. The assignment ave different pro’ Properties: a. 0 ls pth favotes Tre we of row oor L)3- % re ef = 2?! i (| 38 PZ) * pix Wtf uy) aod ——— H+ Yer Vor Wing Scanned with CamScannerAbst} fend wish ecco? PL x41): Plxe0)t POV sy Bl ei ie 2 i & P(x 0) — from | te PC 14x £3)° ear: w+ fod o 3+ SB +L 3 OB ? P| 2 bf | and toa heas- el I 4 Wye 4 j wMispe 4 ( Aw Feds 4 ue y% ( Qucey 24 r n¢ King) = G- M( Black d= 2¢ UCRel fe 26 n( Spice Je IS nd Clb) clk vw C Dien Je 19 NC Haye) = 13° WCPickuve Care y= 12 um ( face Cex dy = 16 | Compe P'S ae kuse dos. Sop ATs = SG g Se 8 “wu z y 6 7 & 4 5 6 678 8 18 7& bel Pl se is art). a7 & Fra nb) eet Scanned with CamScannera | Total _ | Cards 52 | Black | Red | cards 26 | [Back | be eae cub | | Spade | | Diamond | | Heart | | cordsi3 | | Cards33_| | Cards 13) | Cards 13. ore —_— Total Picture Cards = 12 Total Face Cards = 16 Total King Cards = 4 Total Queen Cards = 4 Total Jack Cards = 4 Total Ace Cards = 4 sample 7.72 a geissolled. Find the probability of getting: j) Anumber 4 ii) Arnumber more than 4 ii) Odd number Solution: n(S) = (6) = 6 Sample Space = S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} () Let A= anumber 4 occurs n(A) =1 _n@)_1 P= ns) 6 } (ii) LetB = Number More than 4 = {5,6} | n(B) =2 | n(B) | PB) = nS } (ii) Let C = Odd Number = 13,5 | 2uO23 2} | POT)" 62 Busines Statistics & Mathematics 167 ‘B.Com Part-I Scanned with CamScannerExample 7.8: 1). Iftwo dive are thrown, Find the probability that: (i) The same number appears on both the dice. (ii) The sum of two numbers is greater than 9. sum of numbers on two dice js . \ 2) Two fair dice are rolled, Find the chance that least seven, 3) What is Solution: the probability of throwing a sum 7 with two dice? 1) Number of simple space. The outcomes are: ~ (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6) (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6) (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3.4), (3,5), (3,6) (4:1), (4.2), (4,3), (44), (4,5), (4.6) (5.1), (5,2), (5,3), (5/4), (5,5), (5,6) (6,1), (6.2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) (i) Let A = The Same number appears on both dice {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4)(5,5)(6,6)} Then n(A) = 6 _ 2) P= % (ii) Let B= The sum of two number is greater than 9 n(B) =6 _n(B) P(B) = x5) 2) Let C = Thé sum of numbers on two dice is at least seven n(C) = 21 C P(C) em) eu n(S) 36 12 3) Let D = ASum is 7 with two dice n(D) =6 < 5 poy = 2) 6 2 n(S) 36 6 Pest Stastcs & Mathematics 168 B. ia Pari ‘Scanned with CamScannerP49 Le bitty They en ‘own, what i babitity Th ap! ice thre hat is.the Probabii = ai . ty that: fi lee Y that; delim of dots is 8 or more, yy phe um of the dots is even, ie . i oe ‘ b of the numbers on the di ) product ¢ dice is divisibic by4 cape space n(S) = (6)? = 36 f , ey 2) aay ag 21) 22) a) ae G2 09 GBH) G2) G3) Ba Gs Ge (41) (42) (43) (4a) (a's) Gey (51) 52) 63) G4) 5) G6) (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (66) 1 possible sum are: 28-4 © 6 @ 3) 4 ©) © (7) (8) 4). G6) © ™ @&) @ (5) () (7) (8) ©) (ao) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) (1) (7) (8) (9) 0) (1) G2) ) wt = A double six = (6,6) n(A) =1 n(A)_ 1 P(A) = 5) 736 i) LetB = The sum of dots is 8 or more n(B) = 15 n(B) _ 15 P(B) = 76) = 36 ) Let C=The sum of dots is even: n(c)=18 | n(C) _ 38} 2 | PO as) 36 iGon Part ss _ 169 tics ‘Scanned with CamScanner{(1.1), (2.2), n(D) = 6 2) PO) = nS) iv) Let D = A Doublet = y) Products of the numbers on two dice: 12 3 5 6 24 6 8-10 12 3.6 9 12 15 18 4 g 12°16 20 24 5 10 15 20 25 30 6 12 18 24 30 36 Let E = Product of the numbers on dice is divisible by 4: n(E) = 15 n(D)_15_ 5 PO =7G) 3612 Example 7.10: A fair coin is tossed. Find the probability of getting a: i) Tail if) Head Solution: No of $8 =(2)!=2, Outcomes are H,T i) Let A'= Tail Appears = T n(A) = n(A)_ 1 . (A) = n@) 2 ii) Let B = Head Appears = H n(B) = = 2) 1 Pt) = nS) 2 Example 7.11: (3,3), (44). 5:5). (6,6)} Probabitiy A coin is tossed twice. Find the probability than at least one head turns up. Solution: Number of 5.5 = (2)? = 4 Business Statistics & Mathematics 170 © B.Com ‘Scanned with CamScanneren a ee ae re se 7 ai : pyent shows at le | } ' ast one head, S= (AT, TH sTH, HI - Peay = 2A) _3 ae n® 74 . 4 yet d th wis js tossed three times. What is the probabil Pe gtmost two heads appear, ability hat () aieast one tail appears. t gaaetly bo heads appear, ii tio Figs 200 * @P=s. i mes are = ((HHH), (HHT), (HTH), (H ), (HTT), (HH), (THT), (1TH), (TTT)} pat! Let A = At most two heads appear n(A) =7 _n(a)_7 PARTE" 3 Let B = At least one tail appears ((HAT), (HTH), (THH), (HTT), (THT), 7TH), (TTH),(ITT)} ii) i n(B) =7 n(B) °7 PO =A ii) LetC= Exactly two heads appear ((HHT), (HTH), (THH)S n(C)=3 n(C) _3 P(C)= ® =3 xample 7,13: / ‘om a well-shuffled 52 cards, @ card ig drawn at random. What is the probability of? ii) A card of spade i ) Black card iv) A pictured car's iii) An ace ¥) Ajack of club B.Com Part-1 Scanned with CamScanner5 = 820, = 52 som of SF — nes) = Tee! Number | i Let A= slack card nn P(A) * n(5) 52 | | ii) Let B = Spade card war n@) Bae PB=ns) 54 iif) Let € = Anace card aC 7 PO) = TS) iv = Picture cards iv) Let D = Pictur up) = 22 n(D) _ 12 nS) 52 P(D) v) Let E = A jack of club n(E)=1 n)_ 2 Pa)= n(S) -3 Example 7.14: From a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random. What is the | probability that: i). Oneis king and other is queen ~ ii) _ Both are Aces Solution: n(S) = 82, = 1326 i) Let A = one is king and otlier is queen n(A) = 4C,.4C; = (4)(4) = 16 Business Statistics & Mathematics 1 ; na ‘B.Com Pan ‘Scanned with CamScanner— Probability Theo} “PA pet B = Both are Aces n(B) = "C2 =6 nB) 6 _ 2 P(B) = 3) 1326 221 je 7.15 - asists of 10 students, 7 are females. A student is selected at random from gus coms inate as class representative (C-R). What is the probability that the ere: i) Male ii) Female a cs Female Male Total Ti, 3 10 n(S) = °C, = 10 Let A = selected student is male n(A) = 3C1.7C9 = (3)(1) = 3 _n(A)_ 3 PA) =") * 10 i) ii) Let B = Selected student is female a n(B) = 7Cy.2Cp =(7)(1) =7 n(A)_ 7 >®)=1@ "10 ample 7.16: contains 4 white, 3 black and 6 blue balls. 3 balls are drawn from the bag. Find gbability that they are: white and tw o blue balls Iwo black balls iii) Not white ball lon: 4, SENG 13 n(S) = 3C3 = 286 8S Statistics & Mathematics 173 B.Com Part - I ‘Scanned with CamScannerProbability The, | i i Tat A = One White & 2 Blue Ba i n(A) = 464.8230 = (4)(15)(1) = 60 nA) _ 60 P(A) = 5S) - 286 Let B = Two Black Ball ° n(B) = 302. C1 = (3)(10) = 30 n(B) _ 30. PB) = 7G) ~ 286 ji) Let C= not white ball n(C) = #6. 9Ca = (1)(84) = 84 n(C) _ 84 PO) = ZS) ~ 286 Example 7.17: Six cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probabi! lity that 3 will be and 3 black? Solution: Red Black Total 2 26 52 2 Select = 6 n(S) = 52, = 20358520 Let A = 3 will be Red & 3 Black n(A) = ?6C3.?6C3 = 6760000 n(A) 6760000 PCA) = 7G) = 20358500 ~ 7.12 LAWS OF PROBABILITIES 1. Law of Complementary Events If “A°” is a complementary event of event “A”, then : “ P(a*) = 1- P(A) Or = P(A‘) + P(A) =1 Example 7.18: The probability of 70 years old i i ob person living to be 80 years is 0.64, What is th probability that a 70 year old person, will die some time in next 10 year? 0.332 Business Statist i ; jes & Mathematics 174 Somer! ‘Scanned with CamScannerpability of 70 years old tha i ne ‘at will live for next ten years = 0.64 for the next 10 years P(A‘) = 1. = 1-P(A) = 1-0.64 = .64 = 0.36 Ha i yiuttive catty. Addition Laws for Not-Mutually Exclusive Events For A and B, the probability of at least one of then p(Aor B) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)-P(AN a ii) For Two Mutually Exclusive Events ie. P(ANB) = 9 Then P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) ple TAM: . ers selected at random from ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, find the qs wility that it 1s: : eh gar anaber card (b) A club or a black card 0) ‘gnumbet OF a face card ution? wl n(S) = °C, = 52 (a Let A= Anace card n(4) = *G, = 4 n(A)_ 4 PW =a) > BD Let B = anumber card n(B) = 3°C, = 36 n(B) _ 36 B)=—— == PB) = 705) 7 52 ANB = anAce &a number card nAnB)=0, P(ANB)=0 4 36 40 P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)-P(ANB) = 55 * 5a 2 82 () Let A = A club card n(A) = 3¢, = 13 n(A) 13 P(A) = 76) 52 Let B lack card i x B.Com Part hey \ "ess Statistics & Mathematics Scanned with CamScannern(B) _ 26 a, p(B) = nS) 52 A ie 13 n(n) nh) 2 a5 p(AnB) 05 2 a mber card ! A) _ 36 PM=5@ 8 Lap =a face card B) = 16 i : n(B) _ 16 PB) = 7” 52 AnB=Anumber and face card (ANB) =0 Fase carey) PAN B) == eM P(dorB) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)-P(AN B) ==> + =>—O=1 Example 7.20: i For any two events A and B, it is known that: po 2 ool 7 7 5 . PA)= 3, PUB) = and Pang) == Find P(B) Solution: Addition Law. of Probability: P(AUB) = P(A) +P(B)-Ptan) 7 5 Por two i ” 10 independent events P(Aand By 4 = Png Busines = Peay, p € Mathemari 0) es en mh Scanned with CamScannerECO] xecutives of a firm, The chances to solve ¢ 70% and 90% respectively, What ig firm will be solved by both of them? any problem faced > probability that next i Me faced bY ion: 2 PC _ p(execut! ~ rwill solve the problem precutive Awill solve the problem) = 0.70 ive B will solve the problem) = 0.90 P(A&B) = P(ANB) = P(A). PCB) = (0.90)(0.70) = 0.63 ) nol" eo 7.224 mi ; ot ty tat 2 man wl ive upto 30 yeas 3/5 and the probability that his iP tive upto 30 year is 2/3, Find the probability that i : fl h: F : mi goth will be alive ii) Only the man will be alive 2 citer wil alive iv) Atleast one will alive i ion : sinter (man will be alive) = 3/5 (wife will be alive) = 2/3 K)= (man will not alive) = 1-3/5 = 2/5 2 since'events A & B are independent oars @ Ran)= P70) -O)Q)= (6) =? (P(A B) = P(A).PB) = (2) (4) = (2) () P(AP nn B°) = P(A*). PCB) Gi =e @ P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - PCAN) Bo 2 6 13 ae Tg" 15 113. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY (fen we have to find the probability of'an event A on the additional information that anvher event B has already occurred. Suppose A & B are two events, then the pobability that event A occurs given that event B has occurred is called a conditional _Mobahility and denoted by P(A|B) : P(ANB) P(B) P(ANB) a P(A) : Noevent “A” & “B" are independent then P(A MB) = P(A)-P(B) P(A|B) = Siniarly PBA) = hin : °° Siiies & Mathematics 77 B.Com Part-I Scanned with CamScannerChapter 7 Probaniy, pansy _ PARODY _ pa , i) PAI) = pepy PD pa) ey pcan) _ PAD.PD _ pa), ii) (BIA) = pq = PA) Example 7, _ ber 2 gt What is the probs number 2 gi Solution: i . on that shows ability that adie show ves ‘Ss Only even " aber 2= 2° a 7 = 2,46 2& even number = 2 P(ANB) =& Let A = Die show num B = Die show even numbei ANB ie show member p(ay= zp p(B) = 3 pan) _*/6_} PCB) = pay 37,73 Example 7.24: Given S = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, Find the probability of P(BIA) A=(1,3,8,9,10} B= (1,3,6,7) Solution: P(ANB P(BIA) Se | P(A)=55, ANB (1,3) : PCBIA) = fie=? P(ANB)= Example 7.25: A box contains 15 items, selected, what is the probability that the first is 10 4 of which are defective and 11 are good. Two items are good and the second is defective? Solution: Defective Good Total iM 11 (15 Let A=Firstitemis good , B= Second itemis defective 11 ‘A) == PA) = 35 Reduce sample space after 1 good item has been selected _” Defective Good ‘Total 4 10 14 , P(AN B) = P(A). P(BIA) = P(BIA Business Statistics & Mathematics Scanned with CamScannerPro (a rr fi FORMULAS proba li? ! P(A) = “. O oe P[X=5] = b(5;5,2/5) = ‘nico = " Scanned with CamScannergchapter 9] Binomial and Hypergeometric Distributions 371 Thus the complete binomial distribution with p = 2/5 and n = 5 in tabular jprm is given as follows: 4 5 Total EP[X=x]=1 pix=s] 32 3125 312 Frample 9.2. The experience of a house-agent indicates that he can provide suitable jesommodation for 75 percent of the clients who come to him. If on a particular Neasion, 6 clients approach him independently, ealeulate the probability that: ; (i) less than 4 clients will get satisfactory accommodation anni (i) exactly 4 clients will get satisfactory accommodation Gii)_ at least 4 clients will get satisfactory accommodation (iv) at most 4 clients will get satisfactory accommodation. Solution: : The probability of x successes in a series of n trials is given by . n P[X=x] = (2) psarvs x=0,1,2,3,..,m. Here, n= 6,p = 75/100 = 3/4 and q=1-p= 14 Let the random variable X denote the number of clients who will get satisfactory accommodation. Then the possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. ‘Therefore P[X=x] = (8)(2)"(4)" x=0, 1,2, 34,5, 6. a axead = TEI OOO “(S)(G0G) = gi +g +2 +a Poh = 0.1604 w axed = ({)(§) "Ga = tas = 08 (i) P[X24] = (5¥8)*(27 (GV) +aT@ oxen = SEG OOO “()G) GF 6) (3) +) +(§)(4) (: ( 1 ig 135. | SAO = Joss * 096 * 4096 * yo96 Scanned with CamScanner9.8 PROPERTIES OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Properties of the binomial distribution are listed in the following table. Mean w=np Variance o” =npq Standard Deviation o=\Vnpq Moment Coefficient of Skewness n= Br = Jas Moment Coefficient of Kurtosis _ B,=3+ a Note: Skewness is negative, zero or positive according as p> 1/2o0r p =1/2or p< 1/2. Scanned with CamScanner=. . vat” _gGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION —” Awe Porte i) : ? ial experiments, the inthe binomial experi » the number of suce 5; «ge experiments in which the number af sucdesses is fixe number of successes. Such experiments are calle: if aber of suc é 'd negative b i _panegative binomial experiment possesses the following foe a a tae {9 i outcomes of each trial may be classified into one of two categories: success (S) and failure i) The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant for all trials. ~ ii) The successive trials are all independent. a) The experiment is repeated a variable 1 jber of times to obtain a fixed number of successes. eee Ota 8 ied nam - When V’ denotes the number of trials to produce k sticcesses in a negative binomial experiment, it is anegative binomial variable, and its p.d., is called the negative binomial distribution. When the ‘tive binomial r.v. Y’ assumes a value x, on which the Ath success occurs, the negative binomial ‘tution is given by - marena({ a xek tL RtQ ° k-1 See . Leave binomial pd. has two ‘parameters and p>0)and is generally denoted by b°(: kp). To it, for the neaseive binomial distribution, the probability function sums to one, we proceed as 4, | x-1) pe ak kel kt2s) i Bekn= (1 pte k (x Le xk ‘Scanned with CamScanner8.5.2 Properties of the Negative Binomial Distribution. The important Pro) negative binomial distribution are given below: . Pris ‘ . The mean of the negative binomial distribution is less tt than its v fariance, Le We find the mean and variance by deriving the m.g.f- ofthe the negative binon inomial distribu, i ti The mg./- about the origin is” Molt) = E(e") . © ite aS 7 x4k=I ~ » - Sf k- ye eo 0 oe 4 = pte ltth-ly ony P Da i oe ; = ptd-gely# me Now Mean = E(x) = [Meow ai t=O = ge! (1-ge' tea isa =p. kg (1- gy"! = kgph pe a’) v o = Ey? 5 F (4°) -[E(9P, where ay) [ae i = Phkge(i-ge'y 1 “Flay =a, Hes ¢? P pt aph Kk De eI gey*3 +H Dah “gy Wheo Scanned with CamScannerF pOBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS eP Ve ig HED (tay Pp P 2 joptkeg thy? -k@ 2 325 _ kgptha +h WEG _ kop +g) _ Ve ') ? Pp fo | ince will be greater than mean, if we pe 45 oir +54 po P PP it, 1>p, which is obviously true. te ¥* Hence we observe that the variance of the isan important feature of this distribution, ei cs 2, The negative binomial distribution is always positively skewe - i Ce (GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION wx fp yan eho (Pp? When a experiment consists of independent trials with Probability p of success and the trials are repeated until the first Success occurs, it is called'a geometric experiment. In other words, a geometric apertnent has the following four properties: anna ———— i) The outcomes of each trial may be classified into one of two categories, success and failure ii) The probability of success p remains constant for all rials. iil) The successive trials are all independent. iv) The experiment is repeated a variable number of times until the first success is obtained. ee neato 1s needed for the first success, then X’is called a geometric rv. and IfX represents the number of trial ip. is called the geometric distribution. It has only one parametey/pjand is denoted by g(x: p). The that its successive terms constitute a geometric ethic! - Ronetric lerives its name from the fa i i jae g one has to wait for a success, it is also called a Pogression, Since a geometric /:v. represents how long one hs 10 Sisal distribution when k= 1.8.6.2 Properties of the Geometric Distribution: 1, The mean and variance of the geometric distribution are 41 = 1/ pand o =!" ‘ Let the rv. X have a geometric distribution g(x; p) = pq’. Then HM = E(X) = Dx. g(x; p) = Dis g''p, where x= 1, 25.35 959) xel Scanned with CamScanner& of oe pROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS =P + 2qp + 34"p + 4g'p +... =PUl+ 2g +34" +49" + 3 =Pll-a?'= ppt eb sang WO P oo = EX” ?)-{E(X)P, where =P Pap Sept Pep +. =p [I+ aq +9q + 169° + 3 = p [+39 +6q"+109 +...) + (q+3q°+6q" =p [(l-qy? + q-gy} +] 2. The distribution is positively skewed. -—~ 327Basic Statistics pary I 390 Hypergeometric Experiment An experiment in which a random sample is selected without replacement, fro) known finite population and contains a relatively large proportion of the Populati such that the probability of a success does not remain constant from trial to ieee is called a hypergeometric experiment . or ment from 4 An experiment in which a random sample is selected without replace: Probability of finite population in such a way that each trial is a Bernoulli trial and success does not remain constant on each trial, is called a hypergeometric experiment. Properties of a Hypergeometric Experiment @) The experiment consists of n identical trials. (ii) The successive trials are dependent. (iii) Each trial can result in one of only two possible outcomes, called success and failure. (iv) The probability of each outcome does not temain constant from trial to trial. Hypergeometric Probability Distribution Suppose a population consists of N items which are classified as k successes ‘and N-k failures. If we select a sample of n items from the population without replacement in such a way that x successes are selected from k successes and n-» failures are selected from N - k failures. The probability distribution defined in this situation is a hypergeometric distribution which is given by (G22) P(X =x) =h(x; N, n, k) = Wr —*/ “x= 0, 1,2, 3, ---, n or k (whichever is less) ( ) xsk, n-xsN-k, nsN. n ‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScanner Tebobt! wae Ve PROD DIP9.11 HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION If the probability of a success is not constant, the hypergeometric distribution is particularly useful. Suppose we have N distinct objects divided into two classes say a class of successes and a class of failures. Suppose there are k successes and N-k failures. We take at random a sample of size n and ask for the probability that exactly x of the objects in it are successes and n — x failures. The probability distribution of the hypergeometric random variable x is ar of successes in the et) Ae of failures in the population Taken x at a time Taken n—x ata time P(XEx) = ( Total ape Taken n at a time, where, x =0, 1, 2, 3, ..., n or k (whichever is less), x 0, and is denoted by p(t # ition has onl ibut one parameter 1 > is parameter j4 may be interpreted as the mean rate of occurrence of events. It is relevant to 0 he . It is relevant to notes this is a probability distribution as the function is obviously non-1 ive 2) 20 an a asst n is obviously non-negative, i.e. p(x; 14) 20 andit Yetsw) -S pu =n) = =o yes " Soa et ‘Scanned with CamScannerThe ility distribution is also called the aw. obabli! on Pr" ye application in the field of Biology, Physics, Operation Research and: Managem id wi json distribution is ; appropriate when a ra occurrence is very small in afi “of ac Hina ae atenaes Mo le number of possible xed period of time. r per of actual OCCUNISMS Nery Smi ——$——— we bet343 Properties of the Poissoi ‘butt i aeibution are given below: " Distribution. Some of the main p " roperties of th 1, If the random variable has a Poisson distribut Poisson uti variance are given by B(X) = and Var(A) = p fon with parameter 2, then its mean and By definition, Mean =E(X) “~ = Lx plasa), where plas pf) =H 0 a 2 =0.e" +1 pe? ee ey en 2 yet aif spe i+prt ey. a =pe¥ ec! =p . Alternative Method BX) = ) o& Lex(Qx-Dt aie since the first term in the summation ‘being zero is omitted) (x-D! y=x- 1, then =! BU)= 1" fe (= 012 2) ya 2" ape? eae Fence mean is the parameter of the distribution. Var(X) = EX) - [BQ], where a Now, Scanned with CamScannerINTRODUCTION TO STATISTIC, LM au " Aad) = EX) +41 = BU) * EX(x- 0) oy ye ce eSeeene i ; = be S,. 1 _ one" Lae“ Tera D! = op SE Ge starts at 2, as the first to terms int pepe Lion (x star =m, 2 eae, Let y= x= 2,then 5 oy =0,1,2, BY) =r wre w=, yo! apt wet! =y+ ye Hence Var (X) = ete? =u? = We observe that the Poisson distribution has an interesting property that its mean equals its variance 2. Higher moments of the distribution are found as below: By definition, 145 = E(X*) = 12°. p(s) = Writing x’ in the factorial form, ie. 2 = xGe~ 1) (~ 2) + 3e(8— 1) +5, we have #F oxox Der 2)4+3x00- done 0 Hs HP ey enand He EO) = 38. pasy) = ‘Scanned with CamScannerRE formas 08 -3) + Gxl¥-1) (2) + Ta(e-1) +x, we get ms axe" ° es x1) (x= =a yee JSefote-Mo-D+ HED D)HTal— \ as o a3 . wo ey" 3 He gn de ent yea Raa La 1-2 et + he? =G=Di apt t6e +7 HH 21h Baie #2) eye 32 +H) Bua? + + 2pP = py = ay Aug + Ou (HA)? - 3K)", - Hy = HS SUE OE + THE + An? +34? +1) 4 6p2(y2 +n) 344 asp. 3. The shape of the Poisson distribution depends on the value of its Parameter uv. As the distribution takes on an infinite number o} Ss (theoretically), the distribution will be Positively skewed. The distribution tends to be syminetrical as 2 becomes larger and laroorMY : 31) is said to have a Pp; “This denoted by p(x; 41). Hence a r.v. X having p.d. p(x; #1) is sai ~ aoe dist, Vv . 5 with parameter 4, Example 8.15 If.X is a Poisson random variable with parameter yz =2, find the Probabiltg, x=0,1,2,3 or more, : CU, BABS. in. Here the Poisson distribution is \ 2/9)" _ Plaid) OP 0,12...) ‘The desired probabilities forx = PUX=0) = p(0, Daa 0.135335 2, 3 or more are computed as below: 2 PUX =1) = pit; £2 | i 2(0.135335) = 0.27967 apy PU =2)= 92,2) 22°) 4 (2:2) 2700435335) 0.27069, PZ =1- EH <3) Scanned with CamScanner2 : pronab 16 ane passt ILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Two hundred passengers enger Who has a reservatio, have made tesei Nn will not show Mwy inst wot show up? i"? wil! ” on ra ahwer x sand a 70 show’ 7 sueteae. hen this is essential sis yg 8 ep is Very small and nis considerably large; ! 1a sim) = 2: 00) (05 wr 2@ if V represents the number of successes (not showing up), if) forts 2 ¥ p72 P(X =3) = p(3:2) = Gye _ (8)(0.1353) 3x2x1 = 0.1804. a (2.71828)? au Tvations for an airplane flight. If the Up is 0.01, what is the probability that My a binomial experiment with n = 200 We shall apply the Poisson distribution, we have = 0.1353]10.1 INTRODUCTION Historically, the discovery of eighteenth centuries an ‘ ON gon, ang7 754), Laplace (ag 1827) ata with ceived the attention of mathematicians al plication to biological data was pione ‘Nip? ~ 1911). The normal distribution, ysed in research in the biological, ph, auite often come across the distributions close ¢2 this distribats snormal" is used for it, The word normal is not to be used as some the word abnormal. Normal distribution is al because various other distributions are gener. distribution makes the base for inferential on draw conclusions about the populations the sample study 10.2 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION Normal distribution was first described in 1733 by De Moivre as being the limiting form of the binomial density as the number of trials become infinite This dis very did not get much attention and the distribution was “discovered” again by tuth Laplace and Gauss about a half — century later. Both men dealt with problems tronomy, and each derived the normal distribution as a distribution that emingly described the behavior of errors in astronomical measurements. The tnbution is often referred to as the "Gaussian" distribution. sheuibatiom i i ‘obability distribution i: One of the most important examples of a continous 7 Getiitinn Pee “s normal distribution also called normal curve or Gaussial ‘defined by the equation Ormal dig dat ate by « » also called the normal yo ysical and social Scienc 'S Something oy so called mother een 8 of distributions erated from this distribution. Tha Statistics, a branch of st t a ‘atistics in whict on the basis of information ained fron (10.1) Y where, = mean of the distribution —— a parameter. istribution —— a parameter. © = standard deviation of the distribution no P ® = a constant approximately equal to 3.14159 1 ‘Scanned with CamScanneraa mately equal to 2.71828 Sh, — a constant appr measurement or score marked on horizong, Al ay f curve corresponding to an agg, M64 e X= abscissa, ¥ = ordinate, height o! ! ty of X The tot rea bounded by the curve (10.1) and the X-axis ig o, under the curve between two ordinates X = a and X= b, where a 7 © : oF aR : MW Poivk fj Gatley. FF Point € teh (ecbion 2 Woe —]p Ba & Pint Ff eh LE Scanned with CamScannerTA 5) ty 1G ih SUPT ERE i BT & 6 Su worn dish a& odd | | ovdey Momehs elef wean is 1 I) ' | | | | | Reve ? My Uy = o' i Lh = Aud Momet abet ween be oh wenn ft abaf anna 3 Oe! \ {! C120 - : (Pp .3 fee = 7 2b Skewowry oa Ve | | kavbssis oo alse eye: Marea AStar i pbton wales CAPRA Men buNb ic Aistryib trees Aves undey The we Yad d(St vy otuega Foomtk \| (D3 “tural dite = | [ua foe 61KS TH ev’ Set def, \| | wt Lo covets 68.27% of elaty | [ut ar luxS We f bot | $30 Guts 39-787 | | 7. ef data | ‘Scanned with CamScannerf measurements of intorest im ® sot of mea tao the total a that characteri#0 opmintion is w set of Pinite Population 1a popuims Siumple hur Infinite Populatio ‘Sampled Population A population from which mple inple is a subset of data or s a subset of the population that Random Sample A sample obtained by random sqapaing ia If a sample is selected from probability that may be equal Sampling ‘Sampling is the process g Random Sampling An, calle A method of selecting has an equal or Sampling Units > precede for d a random samp an eaual eb ‘Scanned with CamScanner"; Random Sampling ne for selecting members from s population in such = manner. that each ailable member an equal chance of selection od Sz hasan equal chance of being selected se Random Sampling d random sampling the population is first dir ons called strata, ic Aims of Sampling -7 To get maximum informa exery unit of the population ind reliability of estimates deri vantages of Sampling ) Sampling saves time. ) A higher quality of labour with reduced volufne of material. A’ smail fraction, of population results, ipling Design sampling design is a_definite tion of the sample and method sampling design specifies ‘Scanned with CamScannerunits in the populations ig Frame pling frame is se of all sam) A list of th pling ‘ + A probability sampling nd ev a When each # selected in the hen samp Non-Probabil / The sampling the elements fi js involved in selection 1 Sampling with Replacenser™ oll ling wil " i selection is known as sampl y sampling dig s npr said 1 ® qin 18 not bese Bea jected, ng is said to be with replace ef return it to the population an clement can be chosen more Replacement ‘ -eformed when an object is Bot. nt is populatio with replace Sampling without Sampling without replaceme population affer it has been Selec or Sampling is said to be without replace WASH aia population and do not return it to the pepalalaan sts ‘eement an element eannot be Chosen sampling without re sample Permutation A permutation is an arrange mont in which the order of the specific poo! of objects is amportant or A permutatio dered arrangement of objects. ‘1+ Combination Fe ae Acombinatwon 1s collect or ‘Acombanation is an arcaugement of objects without: q-Sampling Error The sampling error is the dafler stimstic Phe difference between ‘umeter 1s called samp Scanned with CamScannersamples of the same size that n of the distribution is denoted by 1x and the star The sampling distribution of the mean has the following prop Bio ic= » Gi) oo = or (When the sampling is done with replacement) N- a = = (N=) Cynon the sampling is done W.O.R) Eo A Population consists of 4 numbers 2, 4, 6 and 8. Considering Samples of size 2 which can be drawn with replacement from the populat 1) Sampling Distribution of x Gi) Verify the result He u and Population : 2, 4, 6,8 N=4,n=2 ‘Scanned with CamScannerSstuhion; we tive Bey population veo Nose ae i y PeSSible Samples = Pe Me Sample Mean a a 2 iS os ae iS s ‘Scanned with CamScannervat (X) vex) oe ave + ‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScannerhe le au ow fing OG era : x PVaue Gey 7SHORT DEFINITIONS |—jatical Inferenr® a, ve " gia g by which decision makers reach conclusions, about a po ulati f cares rmation collected from.the population, Population based on ple el EC, tistical inference is a decision, estimate, prediction, mation based on information contained in a sample. eB; mation 7 : mation is the process by which we attempt to determine the value of a jpulation parameter from sample information. p0 or . : 3 : pstimation is a process by which we get information about unknown value of jopulation parameter by using sample values. fstimate : {nestimate is the numerical value calculated from sample data. : os ‘or estimate is the numerical value of the estimator. fstimator : ‘ estimator is a rule that tells how to calculate an estimate based on the measurements contained in a. sample. : or generalization about the : ‘ or - An estimator is a statistic that specifies how to use the sample data to estimate an inknown parameter of the population. Scanned with CamScanneree ee catimate of the population Para, timate ; te ie number representing A" L point Estit A point estim haved on a 80mnPle- a : . Jo atatiatie that is used to aati ate consists of a single samp th dl stim! ameter A point ¢ true population Par Interval Estimate An interval estimate ! js expected t lie. a the range of values within which the value of the Patan, ty within which the true value o thin an intorval estimate, % or An estimate expressed by a range of values n parameter js believed to lie, is referre Estimation een an es! populatio Error of The distance betwé estimation. Unbiased Estimator ‘An estimator is unbiae' being estimated. timate and the estimated parameter is called the fey rt “t od if its expected value is equal to the population Paraiy, or parameter is said to be unbiased if the mean of , ty of a population meter. An estimator ‘bution is equal to the para sampling distri Biased Estimator If the mean of the estimator. ig not equal to the population parameter, the esti is said to be biased. Mat or 4 f the expected value of the estimator is not enuy ‘Amestimator 6 is said to be biased i timated ie; (6) #9. to the population parameter being es! Confidence Interval seonidenes interval is a range of values within which the population paramet 3F Ty expected to occur. or ‘An interval that estimates a population parameter within a range of possible vali ues with a specified probability. Confidence Limits The two endpoints of a confidence int i tee eens ; interval are called confidence limits. he probability that the i de 7 population is i ithi interval is called the level of rota, ee : a eal The probability of a Tie reteat correctly accepting the null hypothesis (1 - 9), is called the lvl Doarees of Freedom ‘ egrees of freedom is the Ul placed certoin resritions upon Meee ee gral cane: after we be" Scanned with CamScanner‘Scanned with CamScannerSin le value ation “AO OStimate of a Renan ag Point Estimate” =4 \ a ot eShinate for . EStimate explessed th Seimol om Sb TR Rnowe aS on intend etkimate- For “exommpy C- a)x loo */ Confidence tered ye ' : Ais x + Zcf, x O/ —— Be Point: Estimation: : fa 1 Point Extimation i a frecess. of) ion a Lungle Him We Sample ak aw ebtimate of the ation Parameter al ‘Estimation... \o interval eStimation, OS B Gnkerved sh Voiue within ushich the Population Povamel Beted jo Mie with a Cextoin deqiee ot Gold ¢ AJdued Sed fo edtimate O Sion Eimation 01 estimation by Confidence ‘Scanned with CamScannera3 the Ginpidene Coe (\ ~ @) The et er fentein Ahe parameter 1s © Called Confi dance inkevval EStimete ot pep ute Mean © Kun. ree( (2) ov fid Extonple #¢/ GH & Vand Sovpls Ff 3 ob Sev vatie maven populatrem fav wiki ck unkuews and 62 Sa Sufapeses Sample weeaw tS Luud +e fiad a afe CrMlfdeare ‘Scanned with CamScannerthes fie ioe in beyu al fy. a J is unkewwn Careys 1 $ aw le awfidurce 4¢x-%) : n Example qt ot r Mk. as %. 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