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KASB Research - Federal Budget FY22
KASB Research - Federal Budget FY22
KASB Research
research@kasbsec.pk
Executive Summary
Pakistan has revealed a “Budget For The Masses”, intending to drive growth of 4.8% under an outlay of PKR 8.49tn (+19%). The government
aims to push for inclusive and sustainable growth by enhancing measures towards the social safety net for the poor, increasing development
spending, restructuring circular debt along with power subsidies, rationalizing taxes, and implementing a carrot & a stick approach to
document the economy. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, the Budget FY22 envisages a progressive spending to vaccinate nearly
half (100mn people) of its population.
The government is targeting a fiscal deficit of 6.3% with revenue collection of PKR 5.83tn (+18%), primarily from Sales Tax, while non-tax
revenue is estimated at PKR 2.08tn (+30%), primarily from dividends (OGDC and PPL) and petroleum levy. Despite the history of fiscal
slippages, Pakistan can broadly achieve the fiscal target as more efforts are garnered in putting an end to informal economy whilst taxing the
e-commerce and other digital platforms.
Budget also aims to address the perennial problem of enhancing the tax net for Pakistan, introducing nominal tax measures towards Small
and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and special tax measures for Information Technology (IT) and IT services. Moreover, tax incentives for using
Point Of Sale (POS) devices are targeting 0.5mn retailers/wholesalers against c.11,000 retailers with POS.
National PSDP target of PKR 2.14tn entails a Federal PSDP target of PKR 900bn (+43%) and Provincial contribution of PKR 1.24tn (+83%).
Enhanced focus on housing and construction activity along with dam construction and CPEC projects bodes well for overall growth in the
economy.
In order to keep inflation within the budget target of 8.2%, the government has also introduced power sector subsidies which point towards
efforts to keep energy tariffs constant for the most part of FY22. While talks with the IMF continue to progress, the budgeted subsidies point
towards moderate discussions with the Fund’s staff as Pakistan treads along the EFF program during FY22.
Executive Summary
Alongside actions to mitigate inflationary pressures, there is enhanced focus on the population at the bottom of the pyramid. The
government is targeting interest-free loans for business up to PKR 0.5mn each for 4-6mn families. Such families will also be offered a low-
cost housing loan up to PKR 2.0mn and free technical training to one individual. This is besides the PKR 260bn allocation for Ehsaas program
which serves impoverished people of the nation.
After ages, Pakistan’s government has taken pro-stock market investor measures by reducing the CGT to 12.5% (down 2.5ppts), reducing
turnover tax to 1.25% (down 0.25ppts) and removal of WHT on margin financing.
Despite the 40% rebound during FY21TD, the valuation discount is astonishing, where KSE-100 is trading at a FY22E PE of 6.7x, nearly 32%
discount to its mean. We remain Overweight on Cyclical stocks including, Cement, Steel, Textile and Autos.
Receipts (PKR bn) FY20B FY20R FY21B FY21R FY22B YoY Expenditure (PKR bn) FY20B FY20R FY21B FY21R FY22B YoY
Tax Revenue 5,822 4,208 5,464 4,691 5,829 24% Interest Payments 2,891 2,709 2,946 2,851 3,060 4%
- FBR Taxes 5,555 3,908 4,963 4,691 5,829 24% Pension 421 463 470 470 480 2%
- Other Taxes 267 300 501 - - nm Defence Affairs & Services 1,153 1,227 1,289 1,295 1,370 6%
Non Tax Revenue (old
format) 894 1,296 1,109 - 2,080 nm Grants and Transfers 831 1,177 905 932 1,168 29%
Non Tax Revenue 1,162 1,596 1,610 1,704 2,080 22% Subsidies 272 350 209 430 682 226%
Gross Revenue 6,717 5,504 6,573 6,395 7,909 24% Running of Civil Govt. 431 446 476 488 479 1%
less Provincial Share 3,255 2,402 2,874 2,704 3,412 26% Provision for Pay & Pension 194 - - - 160 nm
Net Revenue 3,462 3,102 3,700 3,691 4,497 22% Provision for contingencies - - 50 - 25 -50%
Provision for
Provincial surplus 242 242 570 136% Disaster/Emergency/COVID - - 100 nm
Capital Receipts 833 967 1,326 1,701 1,440 -15% Current Expenditure 6,193 6,373 6,345 6,561 7,523 19%
External Receipts 1,829 1,283 810 815 1,246 53% Federal PSDP 701 564 650 630 900 38%
Provincial Surplus 423 (81) 242 242 570 135% Net Lending 57 142 72 64 -11%
Bank Borrowing 339 1,724 889 889 681 -23% Other Dev. Expenditure 86 66 70 32 - nm
Privatization Proceeds 150 150 100 - 252 nm Development Expenditure 843 772 792 662 964 22%
Total Receipts 7,036 7,145 7,136 7,141 8,487 19% Total Expenditure 7,036 7,145 7,136 7,141 8,487 19%
Federal budget deficit (3,437) (3,450) (3,990) 16% - budget deficit % of GDP -7.5% -7.6% -7.4%
Fiscal deficit (3,194) (3,208) (3,420) 7% - fiscal deficit % of GDP -7.0% -7.0% -6.3%
Primary deficit (249) (249) (360) 45% - primary deficit % of GDP -0.5% -0.5% -0.7%
Nominal GDP 45,567 45,567 53,867 18%
Source: Budget FY22, KASB Research
Pakistan Fiscal Operations
Pakistan Fiscal Operations (PKR bn) 9 month performance Budgetary allocations % of GDP
9MFY20 9MFY21 YoY FY19 FY20B FY20R FY21B FY21R FY22B FY19 FY20B FY20R FY21B FY21R FY22B
Revenue 4,690 4,993 6% 4,901 6,717 5,504 6,573 6,395 7,909 12.7% 15.3% 13.2% 14.4% 13.4% 14.7%
Tax 3,594 3,765 5% 4,473 5,822 4,208 4,963 4,691 5,829 11.6% 13.2% 10.1% 10.9% 9.8% 10.8%
FBR 3,044 3,395 12% 3,829 5,555 3,908 4,963 4,691 5,829 9.9% 12.6% 9.4% 10.9% 9.8% 10.8%
- Direct 1,146 1,246 9% 1,446 2,082 1,623 2,043 1,789 2,182 3.7% 4.7% 3.9% 4.5% 3.7% 4.1%
- Indirect 1,898 2,149 13% 2,384 3,473 2,285 2,920 2,902 3,647 6.2% 7.9% 5.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.8%
- CD 474 541 14% 685 1,001 546 640 700 785 1.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
- GST 1,242 1,416 14% 1,465 2,108 1,427 1,919 1,927 2,506 3.8% 4.8% 3.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4.7%
- FED 182 192 5% 234 365 312 361 275 356 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7%
Others 534 534 0% 628 267 300 - - 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Non-tax 1,096 1,166 6% 427 894 1,296 1,610 1,704 2,080 1.1% 2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9%
Gross revenue 4,307 4,561 6% 4,436 6,717 5,504 6,573 6,301 7,909 11.5% 15.3% 13.2% 14.4% 13.2% 14.7%
less: Provincial share 1,932 1,986 3% 2,398 3,255 2,402 2,874 2,704 3,412 6.2% 7.4% 5.8% 6.3% 5.7% 6.3%
Net revenue 2,375 2,575 8% 2,038 3,462 3,102 3,700 3,597 4,497 5.3% 7.9% 7.4% 8.1% 7.5% 8.3%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expenditure 6,393 6,808 6% 8,346 8,238 8,135 7,231 7,137 8,487 21.6% 18.7% 19.5% 15.9% 15.0% 15.8%
Current expenditure 3,946 4,224 7% 7,104 7,288 7,376 6,345 6,561 7,523 18.4% 16.6% 17.7% 13.9% 13.8% 14.0%
Mark-up 1,880 2,104 12% 2,091 2,891 2,709 2,946 2,851 3,060 5.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.7%
Defence 802 784 -2% 1,147 1,153 1,227 1,289 1,295 1,370 3.0% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%
Grants and transfers 421 491 16% 470 835 1,177 905 932 1,168 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2%
Pension 332 329 -1% 393 421 463 470 470 480 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
Running of Civil Government 341 312 -8% 463 431 484 477 488 479 1.2% 1.0% 1.2%
Subsidies - 204 nm 175 272 350 209 430 682 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 1.3%
Pay and Pension - - nm - - - - - 160 0.0%
Provision for Disaster/Emergency/COVID - - nm - - - - 95 100 0.0%
Others - - nm NA 0 - 0 - 25 NA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Foreign Loans Repayment - - nm NA 1,095 1,245 1,229 842 1,428 NA 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 1.8% 2.7%
Development expenditure 752 723 -4% 1,178 950 759 886 764 964 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8%
Federal PSDP 340 264 -22% 502 701 564 650 630 900 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
Outside PSDP 382 390 2% 506 86 66 - - - 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other development expenditure 29 14 -52% 170 163 129 70 32 - 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Fiscal balance (1,686) (1,686) (3,445) (3,141) (3,797) (3,195) (3,195) (3,420) -8.9% -7.1% -9.1% -7.0% -6.7% -6.3%
Statistical discrepancy (17) (164)
Primary balance 194 452 (1,354) (250) (1,088) (249) (249) (360) -3.5% -0.6% -2.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.7%
GDP 44,003 45,567 38,559 44,003 41,727 45,567 47,709 53,867
Source: Ministry of Finance, Budget FY22, KASB Research
Promising Growth Target
The government has an aggressive GDP growth target of 4.8% for FY22, Economic Indicators FY19 FY20 FY21B FY21R FY22B FY23E
underpinned by agriculture growth of 2.0%, manufacturing growth of 5.5% and Real GDP Growth 3.30% 2.40% 2.10% 3.94% 4.80% 5.70%
services growth of 4.9%. Inflation 7.20% 11-13% 6.50% 9.00% 8.20% 7.20%
Fiscal Deficit 7.20% 7.10% -7.00% -7.10% -6.35% -5.30%
Total revenue collection target of PKR 7.9tn (14.7% of GDP) is expected to keep Revenue % of GDP 14.50% 16.70% 14.40% 13.40% 14.70% 14.90%
Tax-to-GDP 12.60% 14.40% 10.90% 9.80% 10.80% 11.50%
fiscal deficit within 6.4%. GDP Mkt Prices - PKR bn 38,559 44,003 45,567 47,709 53,867 60,811
Most of the spending during FY22 is towards interest payments (PKR 3.06tn; +4%), Source: Budget FY22, KASB Research