Linear Trend Forcasting

HAMZA IHSAN
SP17-BBA-007
Period Actual Forcast t y ty t^2
1 556 326.0799 1 556 556 1
2 12 332.5098 2 12 24 4
3 578 338.9397 3 578 1734 9
4 12 345.3696 4 12 48 16
5 590 351.7995 5 590 2950 25
6 545 358.2294 6 545 3270 36
7 12 364.6593 7 12 84 49
8 575 371.0892 8 575 4600 64
9 585 377.5191 9 585 5265 81
10 12 383.949 10 12 120 100
11 565 390.3789 11 565 6215 121
12 570 396.8088 12 570 6840 144
13 12 403.2387 13 12 156 169
14 547 409.6686 14 547 7658 196
15 532 416.0985 15 532 7980 225
16 12 422.5284 16 12 192 256
17 571 428.9583 17 571 9707 289
18 599 435.3882 18 599 10782 324
19 12 441.8181 19 12 228 361
20 601 448.248 20 601 12020 400
21 700 454.6779 21 700 14700 441
Total 231 8198 95129 3311

b= 6.42987
a= 319.6524

n= 21

t=

800 Chart Title

700
600
500
400 f(x) = 6.42987012987013 x + 319.652380952381
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7Period
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Actual
Linear (Actual)
 Absolute
Error Error Square of error Absolute value of error divided by the actual values
e = A-F |e| e^2 |e|/A
229.9201 229.9201 52863.25 0.413525
-320.5098 320.5098 102726.5 26.70915
239.0603 239.0603 57149.83 0.413599
-333.3696 333.3696 111135.3 27.7808
238.2005 238.2005 56739.48 0.40373
186.7706 186.7706 34883.26 0.342698
-352.6593 352.6593 124368.6 29.38828
203.9108 203.9108 41579.61 0.354627
207.4809 207.4809 43048.32 0.354668
-371.949 371.949 138346.1 30.99575
174.6211 174.6211 30492.53 0.309064
173.1912 173.1912 29995.19 0.303844
-391.2387 391.2387 153067.7 32.60323
137.3314 137.3314 18859.91 0.251063
115.9015 115.9015 13433.16 0.21786
-410.5284 410.5284 168533.6 34.2107
142.0417 142.0417 20175.84 0.24876
163.6118 163.6118 26768.82 0.273142
-429.8181 429.8181 184743.6 35.81818
152.752 152.752 23333.17 0.254163
245.3221 245.3221 60182.93 0.35046
0.0431 5220.189 1492427 221.9973

f(t) = a+b*t 319.6524

MAD = ∑(A-F)/n MAD 0.002052

MASE= ∑|E| /MAE MASE 21

MAPE = ∑(A-F/A)/n)x100 MAPE 1057.13

MAE= 248.5804
MSE = ∑(A-F)^2/n MSE= 71067.94