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plants operated at healthy capacity utilisation while demand in western
regions remained weak. Bulk of cement has come from IHB segment in rural
and semi urban areas while demand in urban areas remained weak due to
labour migration and localised lockdowns. Realisations across all regions Particulars
stayed healthy. On the cost front, UltraTech reduced fixed overheads by Particular Amount
21% in the quarter. This and higher realisations, led to a sharp rebound in
Mcap | 121489 crore
margins in the quarter. On a sustainable basis, the company is targeting a
Debt (FY20) | 18100 crore
reduction of fixed overheads by 10% leading to annual saving of ~| 500
Cash & Invest (FY20) | 310 crore
crore. Currently, plants are running at 60-65% utilisation on companywide
EV | 139279 crore
capacity. With improved liquidity position (led by reduced w/cap need,
52 week H/L | 4905/| 2910
demand recovery), the company has now revised its capex guidance
Equity cap | 288.2 crore
upwards to | 1500 crore for FY21E vs. earlier guidance of | 1000 crore.
Face value | 10
Volumes to bottom out in FY21E; gain traction from FY22E Key Highlights
FY21 is expected to be subdued for the cement industry due to a significant Volume de-growth of 31.8% YoY led by
loss of business with Q1 being a strong quarter. On the one hand, rural and lockdown impact
semi-urban demand has been supportive since lifting of the lockdown while,
on the other, construction and infrastructure activities are expected to lose Ended Q1FY21 with 46% utilisation.
Fall in petcoke prices (down 26% YoY) to $70/t along with increased
Power and fuel 1,235 1,344 2,136 -42.2 1,932 -36.1
usage of petcoke (77% vs 59% LY) led to decline in P&F cost
Increased share of rail mix (28% vs 25% LY) and absense of busy
Freight 1,590 1,737 2,496 -36.3 2,611 -39.1
season surcharge led to 6% decline in freight cost/t
Others 785 1,154 1,294 -39.4 1,312 -40.2
EBITDA 1,955 1,239 2,791 -30.0 2,262 -13.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.5 17.1 25.3 119 bps 21.8 468 bps
Depreciation 589 630 626 -6.0 609 -3.3
Interest 333 413 432 -22.8 432 -22.9
PBT 1,172 356 1,890 -38.0 1,445 -18.9
Total Tax 366 78 623 -41.2 -1,461 -125.1
PAT 806 277 1,267 -36.4 2,906 -72.3
Key Metrics
Volume (MT) 13.6 13.6 19.9 -31.8 20.5 -33.9
Realisation (|) 5,438 5,331 5,544 -1.9 5,049 7.7
EBITDA per Tonne (|) 1,442 913 1,404 2.7 1,103 30.8
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 4: Sales volumes decline 33.8% YoY during Q1FY21 Exhibit 5: Volumes expected to cross 82 MT by FY22E
30.00 60.0
24.56 100.0
25.00 20.78 40.0 80.9 78.2 82.1
20.5 20.0 20.5
17.48 18.07 17.8 80.0 70.5
20.00
20.0 59.1
13.6 60.0
15.00 48.4 48.9
0.0
10.00 40.0
5.00 -20.0
20.0
0.00 -40.0
0.0
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Sales volumes -LHS Growth (%) -RHS Sales Volumes (In MT)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 6: Realisations improve sharply QoQ Exhibit 7: Realisations expected to cross ~ | 5200/t in FY22E
5800 15.0
5544 5500 5198 5288 6.0
5600 5438 4998 5113
10.0 4894 4883 4937 5.0
5400 5217 5000 4.0
5200 3.0
4991 5049 5.0 4500
5000 4908 4879 2.0
4802 4783 1.0
4800 4000
- 0.0
4600 3500 -1.0
4400 (5.0) -2.0
3000 -3.0
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Realisations/t - LHS Growth (%) -RHS Realisation (|/tonne) -LS Growth (%) -RS
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 8: Domestic capacity to reach 118 MT by FY22E Exhibit 9: Standalone revenues to grow at 3.4% CAGR in
Capacity FY20-22E
Zone (in mt) Capacity Total
additions
North 23.8 23.8 50,000 43404
39933 40634
Central 23.3 2.0 25.3 36052
40,000
East 16.1 4.6 20.7 29526
30,000
West 27.7 27.7 22652 23709 23891
South 20.5 20.5 20,000
Domes tic Total 111. 4 6. 6 118. 0
Overseas 3.4 3.4
10,000
Total 114. 8 121. 4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Sales (| crore)
Exhibit 10: EBITDA/t increases sharply led by better pricing Exhibit 11: EBITDA/t to remain healthy, going forward
and cost control initiatives
1400 1273
1600 1442 1169
1364 1107
1400 1200 1015 986
1103 952
1200 1020 1000 875
986
1000 849 893 800
776 737
(|)
800 600
600 400
400
200
200
0
0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
EBITDA/Tonne
EBITDA/tonne
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 12: EBITDA growth trend Exhibit 13: PAT margin to scale back to 12% by FY22E led
12000 30.0 by healthy realisations, efficiency measures
10000 25.0
22.9 24.1 6000 13.4 16.0
8000 20.8 19.7 21.3 20.0 12.0
19.5 5000 14.0
18.0 17.3 17.7 11.0
10.0 10.1 12.0
| crore
(%)
7.6 10.0
8652
8244
5455.6
3000 6.1 8.0
5226.8
4000 10.0
7076
5826
6.0
3654.5
4969
4627
2000
3915
3616
2000 5.0
2627.7
2416.1
2370.2
2231.3
4.0
1000 2.0
0 0.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E 0 0.0
FY16 FY17E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
EBITDA - LHS EBITDA Margin - RHS
Net profit - LS Net profit margin -RS
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
6000 14000
5000 12000
10000
4000
8000
3000
6000
2000
4000
1000 2000
0 0
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
UltraTech (LHS) NIFTY (RHS)
Financial Summary
Exhibit 17: Profit & Loss Account Exhibit 18: Cash flow statement
(Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E (Year-end March) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total operating Income 39, 933 40, 634 36, 052 43, 404 Profit after Tax 2,416 5,456 3,654 5,227
Growth (%) 35.2 1.8 -11.3 20.4 Add: Depreciation 2,317 2,455 2,463 2,541
Raw material cost 6,814 6,907 6,587 7,838 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets -1,260 -435 -627 -1,701
Power & Fuel cost 8,828 7,703 6,608 8,290 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 3,716 -815 -942 333
Freight cost 10,122 9,570 8,139 9,357 CF from operating activities 7, 190 6, 660 4, 549 6, 401
Employees cost 2,158 2,336 2,121 2,134 (Inc)/dec in Investments -1,601 -288 -350 -850
Others 4,934 5,465 4,353 5,335 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -11,349 -1,100 -1,500 -2,100
Total Operating Exp. 32,857 31,982 27,808 32,954 Others 1,592 -1,138 0 0
EBITDA 7, 076 8, 652 8, 244 10, 451 CF from inves ting activities -11, 357 -2, 526 -1, 850 -2, 950
Growth (%) 21 22 -5 27 Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0 14 0 0
Depreciation 2,317 2,455 2,463 2,541 Inc/(dec) in loan funds 2,245 -1,565 -2,500 -3,000
Interest 1,648 1,704 1,340 1,134 Dividend paid & dividend tax -381 -452 -452 -452
Other Income 501 727 686 800 Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0 0 0 0
PBT 3,611 5,220 5,128 7,575 Others 5,304 16 0 0
Total Tax 1,081 -236 1,316 2,348 CF from financing activities 7, 169 -1, 987 -2, 952 -3, 452
Adj. PAT 2, 530 5, 456 3, 812 5, 227 Net Cash flow 457 -346 247 -2
Growth (%) 3 116 -30 37 Opening Cash 199 656 310 557
Adj. EPS (|) 88 189 132 181 Clos ing Cas h 656 310 557 555
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
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