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Bank
Does bank competition promote competition
economic growth? Empirical
evidence from selected
South Asian countries 201
1. Introduction
How does bank competition affect economic growth? Despite the importance of this question
to regulators and policy makers, there has not been a broad attempt to answer it. The
relationship between bank competition and economic growth has remained as an inconclusive
policy and academic debate. This is due to the reason that the theoretical predictions on the
effect of bank competition on economic growth are not well documented. Two strands of
literature discuss the direct and indirect effect of bank competition on economic growth. The
first strand of literature that focuses on relationship lending, as well as the relevance of bank
competition on firms’ access to finance, affect the long-run economic growth indirectly (Rajan,
1992; Petersen and Rajan, 1995; Berlin and Mester, 1999). In the second stream of literature,
few studies embarked on the direct impact of bank competition on economic growth (Boot and
Thakor, 2000; Cetorelli and Gambera, 2001; Claessens and Laeven, 2004a, b; de Guevara and
Maudos, 2011). Boot and Thakor (2000) suggest that fiercer bank competition always results
South Asian Journal of Business
in higher economic growth as the competitive banking system provides greater availability of Studies
credit to firms at lower interest rates. Vol. 8 No. 2, 2019
pp. 201-223
However, there has been a growing body of empirical literature that questions whether © Emerald Publishing Limited
2398-628X
the role of financial stability should be addressed while analyzing the relationship between DOI 10.1108/SAJBS-07-2018-0079
SAJBS bank competition and economic growth[1]. There is an association between bank
8,2 competition and financial stability, and it is considered as a highly contested issue in
financial literature (Keeley, 1990; Allen and Gale, 2004; Yeyati and Micco, 2007; Beck et al.,
2010; Kasman and Carvallo, 2014). There are also separate studies on the role of bank
competition on stability. The question of whether bank competition is good or bad for its
stability has been a widely debated issue in academic and regulatory circles (Schaeck and
202 Cihák, 2014). Despite the enormous volume of published research that has been carried out
separately on bank competition and stability, there appears to be no consensus on the joint
role of bank competition and financial stability on economic growth. This study attempts to
examine the role of bank competition and financial stability on economic growth in some
selected South Asian economies to address the gaps.
The South Asian economies provide a very fertile ground to investigate the relationship
between bank competition and economic growth. The primary objective of financial sector
liberalization in South Asian economies was to promote bank competition and foster economic
growth through regional financial development. Following a tedious economic performance,
the financial system in these economies has undergone several structural changes[2]. The
South Asian economies have experienced significant structural transformation from a highly
regulated banking system to a competitive one. The structural transformations in South
Asian economies have potentially led to the liberalization in the banking sector by reducing
the interest rates spread. In addition, several deregulation measures made the entry norms of
foreign banks easy with the help of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and
the World Trade Organization.
These structural changes mentioned above have made the financial sector in the region
more competitive and efficient (Perera et al., 2006). However, there has been an ongoing
debate on the achievements of liberalization policies in the region. Most of the liberalization
programs were undertaken with the purpose of allowing foreign bank’s entry, removing
restrictions on banking activities, minimizing government interference, adopting more
liberal interest rate policy and other structural reforms. There is a consensus that even after
two decades of financial sector reforms, there is a dearth of information whether the
liberalization programs that changed the scenario of commercial banking actually fostered
growth substantially. In recent times, empirical evidence supports that economies with the
vibrant financial sector and effective implementation of financial sector policies have
witnessed a gradual increase in banking competitiveness. Despite the growing volume of
literature emerged on the measurement issues of bank competition, there is no literature that
considers both bank competition and economic growth in South Asian economies. Hence,
investigating the impact of bank competition on economic growth gathers a great deal of
attention from regulators and policy makers.
Given the background, we are motivated by the following arguments. First, bank
competition improves the quality of financial products and services by boosting the
efficiency of the production process (Cecchetti et al., 2011). It also introduces a certain degree
of innovations in the financial sector, which in turn augments the overall growth of
the banking industry in the long run. Over the decades, extant literature documented the
relationship between competition and stability, which has long been identified in banking
literature and validated the linkage in the actual pursuit of competition policy (Carletti and
Hartmann, 2003; Vives, 2001, 2010; Martinez-Miera and Repullo, 2010). Second, growth
potential and the economic development of a nation largely depend upon the financial
services that map the nexus between users and providers of capital. In bank-based financial
systems, banks play a crucial role in transferring the services through mobilization and
allocation of savings and, therefore, a competitive banking system has potential
repercussion on the allocation of capital, level of firms’ growth, industrial expansion and
hence economic development (Berger et al., 2003; Jayaraman et al., 2016). Third, in contrast,
policy makers argue that if the degree of bank competition appears to be less, it might Bank
adversely affect the banking system by making the system more costly. The higher cost competition
may lead to the reduction in quality of banking services, thereby curtailing the effective
demand for external financing and resulting in promoting sub-optimal growth (Claessens
and Leaven, 2005). Motivated by these arguments, we attempt to examine the impact of
bank competition on economic growth by addressing the following three questions:
RQ1. Does banking competition in South Asian countries enhance the economic growth? 203
RQ2. Does banking stability exert a significant positive impact on economic growth?
RQ3. What is the joint role of bank competition and banking stability on economic growth?
Our major concern is to deal these three questions in the light of South Asian countries.
The empirical literature on the consanguinity between bank competition and economic
growth reveal contradictory findings. Prevailing theories render the ambiguous answer to
the question of how banking competitiveness assists firms’ access to finance and stimulates
growth through employment generation and firm creation. However, the significant impact
of bank’s market structure and competition on access to external finance and growth has
received a great deal of attention from academicians and policy makers (e.g. Rajan and
Zingales, 1998; Boot and Thakor, 2000; Berger et al., 2004, Zarutskie, 2006). Conventional
economic theories argue that banks exercising higher monopoly power often reach a point
where they charge higher interest rates. Higher interest rates always result in a lesser
quantity of credit to firms (Maudos and Fernandez de Guevara, 2006). Therefore, given the
investment projects and opportunities, there is a greater likelihood that banks exercising
higher market power will reduce the incentives to invest in those sectors that are heavily
reliant on external finance. However, an alternative view has emerged which states that the
potential role of bank competition on credit availability may be linked to the degree of
asymmetric information in the market (DellAriccia and Marquez, 2005; Sengupta, 2007). A
less competitive banking market is likely to be associated with more credit availability and
can significantly affect the growth trajectory of an economy (Petersen and Rajan, 1995).
In this context, this paper makes the following contributions. Principally, this paper
analyzes the association between bank competition and economic growth and further goes
on investigating the impact of banking stability, in particular, and the joint effect of bank
competition and banking stability, in general, on economic growth in South Asian countries.
First, we use a two-stage estimation approach to study the core objective of examining bank
competition on economic growth. In the first stage, we estimate the Lerner (1934) index and
adjusted Lerner index (Koetter et al., 2012) to assess the competitive conduct of six South
Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) covering
the period 1997–2016. Second, as opposed to parametric and nonparametric approach, we
estimate the Lerner index and adjusted Lerner index using a semi-parametric approach.
This semi-parametric approach is claimed to be an improvement over commonly used
parametric approaches because it allows for a flexible cost function. In the second stage, we
applied the Lerner index and adjusted Lerner index (a measure of bank competition) and
Z-score (a measure of bank stability) as explanatory variables along with another set of
variables. Third, this study is the first of its kind that considers both bank competition and
financial stability and its impact on economic growth in South Asian economies.
The outcomes of this study provide some important insights for policy makers and
regulators. Information pertaining to the positive association between bank competition and
economic growth influences the priorities set by the policy makers and advisors in
formulating the financial sector policies. Furthermore, the credible empirical evidence
regarding the positive impact of banking stability on economic growth highlights the need
for research in the determinants of financial development to ensure the banking stability.
SAJBS Policy makers should ensure a competitive banking environment in the South Asian
8,2 countries considering the fact that a competitive banking system will allocate resources
more efficiently, and, as a result, economic growth in these countries might experience a
positive growth. To this end, the central banks of these respective countries should aim at
strengthening policies that favor competition in their individual banking sector.
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides a brief overview of
204 South Asian banking markets. Section 3 delineates the relevant empirical literature about
bank competition and its relationship with economic growth. Section 4 explains the
methodology and data sources. Section 5 produces empirical findings and discusses the
results. Finally, Section 6 concludes the paper with some policy recommendations.
3. Literature review
In this section, we present the literature review into four major parts. The first strand of
literature demonstrates bank competition and several models employed to explain bank
competition. The second strand of literature delineates the relationship between bank
competition and economic growth. The third part discusses the literature related to financial
stability and economic growth. Finally, the last part of our literature gives us an idea
regarding the joint role of bank competition and financial stability on economic growth.
ln tcit ¼ b1 þa1 ðzit Þln qit þb2;it ln wl;it þ b3;it ln wk;it þeit ; (5)
210
where e is the stochastic disturbance and z is the smoothing variable required by the PLSC
approach. The model is semi-parametric in the sense that it treats only the coefficient a1 as a
function of z. From Equation (5), we can obtain the MC for each bank i at time t:
@tcit tcit
¼ a1 ðzit Þ : (6)
@qit qit
For empirical estimation, we need to properly choose input variables which are highly
correlated with a1 such that it allows variation of a1 across banks and time. Following
previous literature, we use input prices for this purpose. The advantage of using input
prices is that these affect a1 to a large extent and also play a significant role in the
estimation of MC. Following Delis et al. (2014), we consider a linear combination of input
prices and define the smoothing variable, zit ¼ lnwl,it+lnwk,it, which is used in (6) for the
final estimation of MC.
where yit is real per capita GDP growth; ALI is the adjusted Lerner index; Xit the set of
control variables; and i and t the country and period, respectively. The details of the
variables used in Equation (7) are explained in Table II. Trade openness which
has been used as an explanatory variable in our empirical model is expected to have a
positive impact on economic growth. This is because greater openness to international
trade has a positive repercussion on growth (Keho, 2017). As far as gross fixed
capital formation is concerned, a positive coefficient is expected between capital
formation and economic growth. Ongo and Vukenkeng (2014) find a positive impact of
gross capital formation on economic growth in CEMAC sub-regions. The nexus between
inflation and growth has been a theoretically debated issue. Empirical literature finds both
positive and negative impact of inflation on growth in both the short run and long run
(De Gregorio, 1992; Sarel, 1996; Khan and Ssnhadji, 2001). Regarding government
effectiveness, we expect a positive sign with respect to economic growth. Good
governance, by promoting more efficient divisions of labor, more productive investment
and faster implementation of social and economic policies, leads to higher economic
growth (United Nations, 2005).
Data
Bank
Variables Definitions sources competition
Dependent variable
GDP per capita The dependent variable used in this study is real GDP per capita growth. WDI
growth This definition has been chosen in line with the study conducted by
Claessens et al. (2006). They used the logarithm of per capita GDP as a
proxy to measure the economic performance of a country 211
Competition variables
Lerner index Details have been given in the methodology section OC
Adjusted Lerner index Details have been given in the methodology section OC
Control variables
Trade Openness It is calculated as the ratio of the country’s total trade, the sum of WDI
import and export to total GDP. It represents the multifaceted nature of
trade policy (see Leamer, 1988; Sachs et al., 1995 for details). Here, we
use trade openness as a percentage of GDP
Gross Capital This variable is defined as a measure of the total value of a producer’s WDI
Formation acquisition, fewer disposals of fixed assets during the accounting
period plus certain additions to the value of non-produced assets
realized by the productive activity of the institutional unit. Uremadu
(2008) further defines gross fixed capital formation as an addition in
the stock of capital assets
Z-score Z-score as a measure of financial stability has been computed as the World Bank
inverse of the probability of insolvency (ROA + E/A)/δ(ROA), where δ
(ROA) is the standard deviation of ROA (source: World Bank
publication reports on Global Financial Development)
Inflation This is defined as a proxy by the annual growth rate of CPI index, and WDI
this variable is used to account the macroeconomic stability
Domestic Credit This variable is defined as the total assets for the ratio of total banking WDI
(% of GDP) sector assets to the real gross domestic product (GDP). It amounts to
total domestic credit provided by commercial banks to government
institutions only
Government This is defined as a proxy by the annual growth rate of CPI index and WDI
Effectiveness this variable is used to account the macroeconomic stability Table II.
Notes: WDI, World Bank Development Indicator; OC, own calculations Variable definitions
We further apply the reduced form dynamic panel model. Economic growth ( y) depends
upon bank competition (m), financial stability (x), financial development ( f ) and other
macroeconomic variables (z):
yit ¼ ai yit1 þbi1 mit þ bi2 xit þbi3 f it þbi4 zit þvi þjt þeit ; (8)
where i denotes the country (i ¼ 1, 2, …, 6) and t denotes the time (t ¼ 1996, …, 2016). This is
a general specification which allows for examining the dynamic effect of competition on
growth, individual fixed country effect (v), time effects (φ) and a stochastic term (ε).
Equation (8) is a linear dynamic panel model (Arellano and Bond, 1991). One of the
characteristics of this model is to examine the unobserved effects in the panel model, which
can be fixed or random. However, there are chances that unobserved panel-level effects are
strongly correlated with the lag(s) of the dependent variable, which may again make the
most standard approaches inconsistent. The first differencing transformation in Arellano
and Bond (1991) eliminates the firm-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Blundell and Bond
(1998) following the work of Arellano and Bover (1995) develop a system GMM that
addresses the problem of Arellano and Bond (1991) by expanding the instruments list to
SAJBS include instruments for the level equation. In this paper to capture the dynamic nature of
8,2 bank competition and economic growth over the sample period, we use the system GMM
approach to estimate our models.
The empirical results show that bank competition has a significant positive impact on
economic growth at 5 and 10 percent levels, respectively. However, it should be mentioned
that the Lerner index and adjusted Lerner index being the direct measures of bank market
power and indirect measures of bank competition, we have negative signs of LI and ALI’s
coefficients[6]. This simply means that there is an inverse relationship between bank market
power and economic growth and a positive relationship between bank competition and
economic growth in these selected South Asian countries throughout 1997–2016. The
negative coefficients of 0.19 and 0.82 mean that one percent increase in bank competition (as
measured by Lerner index) leads to a 0.19 percent increase in economic growth over the
periods under study. This signifies bank competition has a significant positive impact on
real economic growth. The positive outcome of bank competition on economic growth
supports our first hypothesis that bank competition enhances economic growth in South
Asian economies.
The relationship between trade openness and economic growth is mixed and
inconclusive. However, literature that discussed the possible role of trade openness
on growth in South Asian economies is very less. In our case, we find a positive
but insignificant coefficient of trade openness in relation to real GDP growth for the
six South Asian economies over the period 1997–2016. This is due to the less exchange
rate volatility in the region. Less exchange rate volatility always exerts a positive
impact of investment on its terms of trade[7]. In terms of gross capital formation,
we have a positive and significant coefficient on real economic growth. Gross fixed
capital formation is one of the important determinants of economic growth and plays a
significant role in increasing the physical capital stock in the domestic economy
(Plosser, 1992) and in promoting the technology indirectly (Levine and Renelt, 1992).
However, it is worthwhile to mention that trade openness along with capital formation
has a very positive and strong complementary role to play in promoting economic growth
(Keho, 2017).
There has been a long-standing debate on the relationships between inflation and
growth. The debate is more profound regarding the expected sign between inflation and
growth. In our case, the sign turns out to be negative implying an inverse relationship
between inflation and growth. This finding is in contrast with Mallik and Chowdhury (2001)
and Behera (2014), Mallik and Chowdhury (2001) examined the long-run relationship
between inflation and growth in four South Asian economies (Bangladesh, Pakistan,
India and Sri Lanka) and found a positive relationship between the two variables.
SAJBS Furthermore, our result regarding inflation and growth is in line with Jayathileke and
8,2 Rathnayake (2013). They found a long-run negative and significant relationship between
inflation and growth in Sri Lanka and India. Domestic credit as a percentage of GDP has a
positive and significant coefficient at a 5 percent level. This implies that as commercial
banks provide more credit and loans to its government institutions, it will help the
economies grow faster and maintain higher economic growth. Government effectiveness
214 appears to be negative, which implies greater political pressures, less stable government
and less effective government policies have a negative role to play in enhancing the
economic growth in South Asian economies. However, this negative relationship between
government effectiveness and economic growth suggests some major alerts for long-run
sustainable growth and stability in South Asian economies. Maintenance of strong
democratic institutions in order to create political stability can help in achieving economic
growth in the region. In order to capture the unobserved time-varying factors such as
deregulation and bank supervisory practices in the South Asian countries over the sample
period, we have considered the time trend variable in our panel regression.
Lagged GDP per capita 0.34** (1.75) 0.45*** (3.21) 0.65* (1.54) 0.53** (1.89)
Lerner index −0.20** (1.88) −0.23** (2.16) −0.19** (1.87)
Adjusted Lerner index −0.55 (−0.57) −0.38 (−0.62) −0.37 (−0.76)
Trade Openness 0.12** (1.77) 0.19** (1.88) 0.22*** (2.86)
Gross Fixed Capital 0.77*** (2.43) 0.82*** (2.65)
Inflation −0.65* (−1.66) −0.55 (−0.51) −0.52* (−1.78)
Government Effectiveness −0.17* (−1.61) −0.72* (−1.59) 0.61*** (7.56)
Domestic credit (% of GDP) 0.31*** (2.76) 0.25*** (4.56)
Financial Stability (Z -score) 0.36* (1.67) 0.023 (1.23)
Lerner index × Stability 0.28** (1.98)
Time Effect Included Included Included Included
Country Effect Included Included Included Included
Number of countries 06 06 06 06
Observations 114 114 114 114
Number of instruments 54 55 58 65
Sargan p-valuea 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.97
b
AR(2) p-value 0.38 0.62 0.68 0.65
Notes: aThe Sargan test p-value for over-identifying restrictions, where Ho: over-identifying restrictions are
Table IV. valid; bthe Arellano–Bond test p-value for serial correlation of order 2 in the first difference residuals, where
Bank competition, H0: no autocorrelations. Columns in tables report estimated coefficients of each model. Figures in parentheses
financial stability and represent the value of t-statistics. Equations are estimated using Arellano and Bover (1995) system
economic growth: generalized method of moments (GMM). p-values of AR(2) tests are based on the estimations with Windmeijer
system GMM WC-robust standard errors. *,**,***Significant at 10, 5 and 1 percent, respectively
financial stability in the region. As far as the relationship between bank competition and Bank
financial stability is concerned, we find a positive and statistically significant coefficient competition
between the two variables. This implies that financial stability in the South Asian economies
has positively contributed to its economic growth. This finding lends support in favor of our
second hypothesis, which tests the positive relationship between bank competition and
economic growth. However, while comparing the coefficient signs of the rest explanatory
variables between simple panel regression model and system approach, we fail to draw any 215
significant changes in the coefficients values of both the model. The consistent coefficient
values signify that variables used in the empirical estimations are well suited in explaining
the variations in economic growth. In order to capture the joint effect of bank competition
and financial stability on economic growth in South Asian economies, we estimate Model 4
in Table IV. Model 4 includes the interaction variable between bank competition and
financial stability. We find a positive impact of competition and stability jointly on economic
growth in South Asian countries. Since literature on the joint effect of bank competition and
financial stability on growth is inadequate, we could not support our empirical findings with
other empirical evidence. However, this finding supports our third hypothesis that mentions
the joint impact of competition and stability on growth.
216 Notes
1. Claessens and Leaven (2003), Claessens (2009), Wagner (2010), Tabak et al. (2012), Jeon and Lim
(2013), Schaeck and Cihák (2014) and Hou and Wang (2016) favored that issues related to bank
competition and bank stability should be considered together. On the other hand, Fernandez et al.
(2016) and Creel et al. (2015) are of the view that there is a long-run relationship between bank
competition, financial stability and economic growth. Hence, the aspect of competition and stability
should be taken together while explaining growth.
2. It has been found that few South Asian economies including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and
Sri Lanka have undergone structural transformations as the liberalization policies turned out to be
the main focus of their monetary authorities (Reserve Bank of India, 2002; Central Bank of
Sri Lanka, 2000; Bangladesh Bank, 2000).
3. Details of theoretical discussion of the partial linear smooth coefficient model can be found in
Li et al. (2002), Fan and Zhang (1999) and Mamuneas et al. (2006).
4. Clerides et al. (2015) estimated Lerner index, adjusted Lerner index and Boone Indicator for 145
countries. Like Clerides et al. (2015), our econometric technique is also based on semi-parametric
approach for the estimation of marginal cost, which is an important element required for
calculating Lerner index and Adjusted Lerner index. Therefore, bearing the uniformity in mind, we
have collected data on Lerner index and Adjusted Lerner index for five South Asian countries
(Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka) from the work of Clerides et al. (2015).
5. The estimated values of Lerner index and Adjusted Lerner index have not been reported in the
paper. However, the estimated results can be available on request.
6. Throughout this study, we have used market power measures (LI and ALI) as an indirect indicator
of bank competition intensity. This is really an innocuous assumption although several studies
have pointed out that market power measures always do not reflect the expected direction when
there is a change in competitive scenario of banking system. Empirical findings also reveal that
there are theoretically possible scenarios in which price –cost margins increase with more
competition (see Stiglitz, 1987, 1989; Bulow and Klemperer, 2002; Boone, 2008). However, many
studies have employed market power measures to assess bank competition (see Fernandez de
Guevara et al., 2005; Maudos and Solís, 2011; Weill,2013; Koetter et al., 2012; Clerides et al., 2015,
among others).
7. It has empirically been tested that in the long run, trade openness can influence economic growth
by providing access to goods and services, achieving allocative efficiency of resources and
improving total factor productivity (TFP) through technology diffusion (Barro and Sala-i-Martin,
1997; Rivera-Batiz and Romer, 1991).
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Appendix 1
LI 1.000
ALI 0.9886 1.000
GDP per capita 0.0382 −0.0154 1.000
Trade Openness −0.0108 −0.0636 0.1922 1.000
Gross Capital Formation 0.0081 −0.0512 0.3132 0.0301 1.000
Inflation 0.0620 0.1098 −0.2626 0.254 −0.085 1.000
Table AII. Government Effectiveness −0.0348 −0.0090 0.1279 0.5224 0.1607 0.2543 1.000
Correlation matrix Domestic Credit (% of GDP) 0.2634 0.2607 0.1020 −0.0829 0.5872 0.1189 0.1268 1.00)
Appendix 2 Bank
We can write the econometric form of total cost function as:
competition
Y i ¼ E Y i 9 W i þ ei ¼ X i b1 þV i b2 ðZ i Þ þ ei ; (A1)
In this equation, β2 is a function of one or more variables with dimension k added to the vector Z, which
is a crucial element of the analysis and will be discussed below. The presence of a linear part in
Equation (A1) is in line with the idea of the semi-parametric model as opposed to a fully nonparametric
one. The coefficient of this part is estimated in the first step as averages of the polynomial fitting by 223
using an initial bandwidth chosen by cross-validation ( Hoover et al., 1998). We then average these
estimates β1i and β2i to receive β1 and β2 in Equation (A1). In the second step, we use these average
estimates to re-define the dependent variable as:
where:
1 Xn Dz zE Xn Dz zE
V j V nj K
j j
Bn ðzÞ ¼ nlk V 2j K and C n ðzÞ ¼ ðnlÞk1 ðnlÞk1 :
j¼1
l j¼1
l
Equation (A3) represents a local constant estimator, where K (z, λ) is a kernel function, λ is the
smoothing parameter (chosen by generalized cross-validation in all models of our paper) for sample
size n, and k is the dimension of zi. The coefficient β2(z) that is evaluated at a point z of Z is a smooth but
unknown function of z. Here, we estimate β2(z) using a local least square approach. Using the PLSC
technique, we allow the model to be linear in the regression but their coefficients are allowed to change
“smoothly” with the value of another variables z.
Corresponding author
Bijoy Rakshit can be contacted at: bijoy.rakshit@iitrpr.ac.in
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