Afghanistan peace process

Introduction: Afghanistan has been in a state of continuous and

non ending armed conflict since 1979. Different parties have
attempted to negotiate in all stages of the struggle. Kabul has
witnessed the longest and the 2nd most expensive war US has
ever fought and the world has ever seen. War on terror against
Iraq was the 1st. The US is weirdly trapped into a country that
has a lot of Taliban and militant entities. The forces of USA have
gained less and lost more. They are in a perpetual state of war
and there seems to be no end however recent talks mediated by
Pakistan are a ray of hope in the process of achieving peace.
The US after realizing the significance of direct dialogue with
the Taliban has shown interest in the negotiations.
History: During the 1980’s the UN worked to facilitate
rapprochement between the US and the USSR. After the fall of
Taliban regime in 2001 the UN again facilitated the process
that led to the Bonn agreement which marked the beginning of
the country’s transition. In recent years the persistence of
armed conflict and the inability to stop it using military means
has led the Afghan and US governments to gradually reach out
to the Taliban insurgency, a process that has not been without
difficulties and has not passed the exploration and confidence
building stage. Different international actors such as the UN
and the German and the KSA governments have played
different roles in facilitating and bringing the parties together.
The year 2018 has witnessed rapid changes in peace efforts in
Afghanistan. In early Feb President Ashraf Ghani put forward
an unconditional peace offer to the Taliban. Over the summer
the Afghan government and Taliban honored their 1st truce in
17 years of war although only for 3 days. The US government
introduced a special envoy for peace in Afghanistan led by
Zalmay Khalilzad and was tasked with ending the longest war
the US had been involved in its history. Russia organized a
conference on Afghan peace in Moscow where the Afghan High
Peace Council members and Taliban representatives met.
Finally, in late Nov in Geneva, Switzerland in a 2-day conference
on Afghanistan development Ghani announced a 12-member
team that will hold peace talks with Taliban.
Stake-Holders:
1. Internal stake-holders:
 Afghan government is the major stake holder. They
comprise of 4 major ethnic groups:
 Pashtuns in majority i.e. Ashraf Ghani
 Non-Pashtuns i.e.
 Uzbek
 Tajik
 Hazara
 Afghan Taliban
2. External stake-holders:
 United states of America. Their interests are to end
the endless war in Afghanistan and pull out its
fighting troops. It does not want any more troops
 to fight. Secondly, they want to keep a strong
military presence in Afghanistan in the form of
military bases e.g. Bagram airbase to keep a check
and contain China, Iran and Russia. This is their
geostrategic objective.
 Pakistan. Their major objectives are that they want
the end of the endless war because if there is war
in Afghanistan there can’t be peace in Afghanistan
e.g. Afghan Jihad happened in Afghanistan but its
implications were in Pakistan i.e. AK47 Culture,
drug culture, Jihadist culture and refuges influx.
Secondly the war on terror in Afghanistan resulted
in more than 120-million-dollar loss, more than 800
plus civilian and security personnel got killed, more
than 400 suicide bombings, series of terrorist
organizations like TTP etc happened. Hence if there
is peace in Afghanistan there will be peace in
Pakistan and we will be able to materialize CPEC
and use it to become a transit corridor. The major
hurdle nowadays in it is the security condition in
Afghanistan. Other than this Pakistan does not
want abrupt with drawl of US troops from
Afghanistan as this will result in a power vacuum
which will be filled by non-state actors resulting in
civil war. Hence, we do not want them to leave
until the settle the Taliban factor. Also, Pakistan
wants India’s presence end in Afghanistan and also
don’t want their intelligence presence as they have
been supporting separatist movements and
organizations in Afghanistan e.g. BLA, BLUF, BLU
etc. They are facilitating attacks in other parts of
Pakistan’s country. BLA’s biggest supporter is RAW
and they are using Southern Afghanistan especially
Kandahar and are especially responsible for attacks
in Baluchistan. Similarly, they are responsible for
the attacks on Chinese embassy in 2008, PC hotel
attack in Gwadar, Current attack on stock
exchange market in Karachi etc. We have tangible
evidence of this in form of Kalbushan Yadav who is
revealing everything. Their prime objective is to
sabotage CPEC. Also, there is military presence in
Afghanistan. They are training 35000 +
Afghanistan noncommissioned soldiers whereas
the commissioned are being trained in India
Daradhun which is leading to the creation of anti-
Pakistan image and projecting Pakistan as an
enemy. Pakistan does not want this as this will lead
to insecurity on both east and west border. In
addition, Pakistan wants ISIS to be defeated as it is
an existential threat for the peace and stability of
Pakistan. ISIS-TTP nexus is dangerous as TTP is
attacking Pakistan. ISIS-Lashkari Jangvi is a threat.
Sectarianism terrorism is a far bigger threat than
general terrorism as this leads to intellectual
 terrorism and division of people of countries i.e.
Shia and Sunni. This should be controlled. ISIS-
Lashkari Jangvi is promoting this. Similarly, ISIS is
responsible for various attacks in Pakistan
especially Mastung tragedy 2018.
 Russia. The Afghan problem is important for
Russia’s energy and hydrocarbon strategy in
Eurasia, which is primarily about Russia’s access to
region’s energy resources and control over the
trade, transportation, and communication
corridors. As Roy Allison notes, post-Soviet Russia
has perceived oil and gas resources as both a
strategic asset and a strategic instrument in the
Caspian Sea and Central Asia. Central Asia not only
contains vast hydrocarbon fields, both onshore and
offshore in the Caspian Sea, that have the potential
to serve as an alternative to OPEC suppliers of
energy resources but is also one of the most
important crossroads/intersections of the world’s
energy communications in the North-South and
Europe-Asia directions. The main motivation
behind Russia’s involvement in the region is to
maintain Russia’s status as the main transit route
for energy exports from Central Asia to Europe, in
addition to limiting the influence of other players in
Russia’s own backyard. One of the socially
constructed images of Afghanistan since 1991 is
that of a ‘potential energy corridor’. Secondly
Russia’s economic interests in Afghanistan are
often underestimated or completely neglected.
Russia is trying to develop a single economic zone
in which Central Asia will play an important role.
Afghanistan is rich in mineral resources; according
to one report, Afghanistan’s untapped mineral
deposits could exceed a trillion dollars. The report is
based on geological exploration work completed by
the Soviet Union in the 1960 s and 1970 s. It claims
that Afghanistan has significant deposits of
aluminum, iron ore, molybdenum, cobalt, gold,
silver, copper, niobium, fluorspar, beryllium, and
lithium. According to another report issued by the
US military and geological experts, Afghanistan
could be ‘part of the long-term solution to the Rare
Earth Elements (REE) supply problem’. Another
reason that Afghanistan is highly important for
Russia is its potential to destabilize the entire
Central Asian region. In particular, Russia is
concerned about possible spill-overs of Islamic
fundamentalism and terrorism into Central Asia.
Another socially constructed image of Afghanistan
that has been developed since the early 1990 s is
Afghanistan as a source of instability and Islamic
fundamentalism, which could ‘Afghanize’ the
region. In addition, the people and the
 governments of Russia and the Central Asian
republics have come to believe that the Islamic
terrorist threat stems from the activities of Islamic
fundamentalist movements based in Afghanistan.
 China. China’s fundamental interest in Afghanistan
is stability. Chaos in Afghanistan, from Beijing’s
perspective, stokes Islamic fundamentalism that
threatens domestic security in China, particularly in
Xinjiang.
 Iran
 India. They are a major stake holder in
Afghanistan. India wants to increase its axis to
central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan. India’s
policy states connect central Asia policy. It states
that connect central Asia and Afghanistan through
Iran. Initially there is Chahbahar construction,
Secondly Iran-Afghanistan-India railway road,
Zaranj which is north of Kabul and dillaram road.
This policy is called connect central Asia policy. This
was a big setback for Pakistan as accessing Central
Asia by bypassing Pakistan as it would result in
40+- decrease in transit trade. In addition, India has
been making military and intelligence access
through Iran in disguise form i.e. person is a doctor
but originally RAW agent etc. They have been using
Afghanistan against Pakistan. This is strategic
objective. Fortunately, Iran called of its India and
 called out a deal with China. The connect central
Asia deal was signed by India, Iran, China, Russia
but no practical work was shown especially on
railway projects. India also did not achieve any
successful results in the Chabahar projects. The
main reasons for this was that there were
sanctions on Iran due to which India did not invest
quickly. India also had a good relation with US and
US forced them not to invest into this project. Also,
under US pressure India diverted its Oil and energy
import to Central Asia i.e. KSA, Doha etc. Hence
Iran made a deal with Iran. Hence now this policy
failed. This will result in no intelligence access to
Afghanistan. Hence since now the Chabahar
project is given to China the tensions will decrease
from Iran side. China will play the role of a bridge
or mediator between Iran and Afghanistan to
minimize the tension and transit trade rivalry. This
deal between China and Iran is a land mark
achievement.
Why Peace Talks?
Taliban’s are the stake holders not irritants. UN has not
declared them as terrorists. In 2001 US militarily intervened in
Afghanistan through operation enduring freedom (OEF). This
resulted in Taliban government being toppled down, thousands
of Taliban being killed and many more being captured. Also,
many more took refuge in Heli belt of Afghanistan e.g. Tora
Bora and tribal belt of Pakistan and parts of Baluchistan. In
2002 US declared victory against Afghanistan that we have won
the war on terror but this proved to be short lived as there has
been substantial/potential revival of Afghanistan Taliban. There
is:
1. Military revival of Taliban. US, the world’s strongest
military machine in the human history, failed to defeat the
Taliban. They could not achieve its desired objective due
to a simplistic application of hard power and development
work as described by Jack Fairweather in his latest book,
“The Good War”. Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie
the pentagon’s nominee to lead US central command has
stated that though war is at a stalemate and new effort
are at a play. US despite:
 Being world’s strongest military country and bringing in
technologies to be used against them e.g. drones, Cobra,
Air borne, B52 bombings etc and the list is quite long.
 US brought in more than 100 thousand troops into
Afghanistan who kept on fighting in Afghanistan for 19
years resulting in the longest ever war and most expensive
resulting in 6 trillion $ being spent in total and alone in
Afghanistan 1.6 trillion $. They conducted more than 2000
major military operations.
 US made repeated policy shifts to defeat them e.g. OEF
policy in 2001, 3D (disrupt, dismantle and defeat) policy in
2008, Afghanistan-Pak policy i.e. Afghanistan and Pakistan
 policy, draw down policy i.e. removal of international
troops. Trump south Asia policy in 2017 etc. They still
failed to defeat Afghanistan. Soon the Oval house realized
a face-saving strategy as a better option.
 NATO also failed which was a military organization of 29
countries i.e. US, Europe, Canada, Turkey. This was the
strongest military alliance, most equipped alliance etc
failed to defeat Afghan Taliban. Under article 5 of NATO
charter if any of the NATO member is being attacked and
the member country who is being attacked demands
military support under article 5 from member nations of
NATO all of them are bound to retaliate. In short there is
collective responsibility. US evoked article 5 and all
member nations sent their troops to Afghanistan which
resulted in more than 65K troops in Afghanistan. They also
brought their weapons which could be used against them
and also conducted more than 2K military operations.
With heavy costs and more than 2 decades war they also
fought to defeat Afghanistan but failed badly. Hence not
only US and NATO failed to defeat Taliban but also
International security assistance force (ISAF) failed to
defeat Taliban. With the passage of time US prevailed on
many other countries also e.g. Japan, South Korea, Jordan,
UAE etc to send their troops to Afghanistan which they did
hence due to this now NATO concept isn’t there anymore
and the concept of ISAF came into being which was a
military alliance between 38 countries. ISAF also used all
 their technology but they failed to do so. According to NYT
Washington has fueled this war in Kabul with nearly $1
trillion dollars and more than 480000 lives yet the matter
is not settling rather escalating.
Hence it is evident that the US underestimated the support and
strength of the Taliban and this has impacted its calculations
for military responses. In Dec 2018 Lt. General Richard Clarke
stated that the Taliban are 60k strong correcting his last
estimate of 20k members. Furthermore the UN assistance
mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) noted that from January to
Sep 2018 there have been a total of 8050 civilian casualties
with 2789 dead and 5252 injured similar to the same period in
2017.
2. Territorial expansion of Afghan Taliban. In 2001 they were
completely defeated and they ran away but 2004 onwards
the process of irreversible resurgence of Taliban restarted.
This territorial revival is divided into 3 phases i.e. 2004-
2010, 2010-2014 and 2014 onwards. 2004-2014 Taliban
increased their attacks in rural areas of Pashtun belt i.e.
southern Afghanistan and eastern Afghanistan. From
2010-2014 Taliban expanded their attacks to the urban
centers of the Pashtun belt on one hand and central
Afghanistan especially Kabul on the other hand. In 2011
there was this exponential rise. From 2014 onwards i.e.
after draw down Afghan Taliban extended their attacks to
non-Pashtun belts for the first time after 2001 i.e.
 bordering areas of Afghanistan with Iran, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan especially Iran and
Turkmenistan. Afghan Taliban have been claiming
defective territorial control over more than 70% area of
Afghanistan but US, NATO and Afghanistan government
denied them. They have been saying this since 2011. In
2018 US justice department report was published stating
that the American generals in Afghanistan are lying to the
nation, American government is lying to the nation,
situation is far worse than being projected or displayed.
45% of the Afghan territory is directly controlled by the
Afghan Taliban. More than 70% of Afghan territories have
strong influence of Afghan Taliban. This endorsed the
Taliban’s claim. One of the ex-general of US wrote in NY
times in his article in 2012 that Kabul is governed by
Hamid Karzai in day time, Taliban’s rule prevails when
night prevails.
3. Diplomatic revival of Afghanistan Taliban. From 2008 and
onwards Pakistan was the only country that supported the
ideal of negotiations with Taliban. Pakistan said US could
not defeat Pakistan despite all possible military
interventions, NATO and ISAF could not defeat Taliban so
how can Afghan army now defeat them. This was
Pakistan’s stance and we asked for peace process. This
was opposed by neighbors of Pakistan including India and
Afghanistan. Resultantly the world especially US,
Afghanistan and India blamed Pakistan and put
 allegations on them that Pakistan has been covertly
supporting Afghan Taliban. Pakistan was the first country
to dare to give a stance about this issue. Time proved that
Pakistan’s stance was correct as after this all the
neighboring countries changed their stance towards
Afghanistan Taliban. Also, the Muslim world changed
their stance. Whether it was heart of Asian conference in
Istanbul, Islamabad etc or Moscow conference rounds or
QCG (China, US, Afghanistan and Pakistan) conference
they changed their stance 2014 onward. They said
military operation is not the solution of the problem in
Afghanistan, only negotiations. They also said do not call
the Afghanistan Taliban as terrorists, they are the sons of
the soil as accept them as diplomatic entities. Share
power with them. Release their prisoners. All these were
being already said by Pakistan since 2008 but it came to
front after Russia, China etc said it. Hence resultantly the
countries accepted Taliban as a political entity. Hence the
fighters that were called as terrorists became political
entities. During US-Taliban Doha deal US accepted Taliban
as a diplomatic and political entity. From a terrorist
organization to diplomatic entity.
4. In addition, ISIS has been the driving factor due to which
neighbors changed their policies towards Afghanistan
Taliban. There were multiple factors but ISIS was major
which was a middle east phenomenon related to Iraq and
Syria. The remaining of Al-Qaeeda joined ISIS in
Afghanistan especially Khurasan group. Similarly, a
portion of TTP under Shahid ullah Shahid joined ISIS. A
portion of Afghan Taliban joined ISIS. The reason for
Taliban joining ISIS was that in 2015 after the death of
Mullah Umar a conflict rose between Mullah Akhtar
Mansur and Mullah Mansoor Dadullah over political
leadership. Mullah Mansoor Dadullah’s supporters joined
ISIS. Similarly, there is an increase of militants from ISIS in
Afghanistan. Hence, they shifted from Iraq into
Afghanistan. However, the question remains how they
came as Afghanistan is land locked country? They could
not have come through Iran and India. The other option is
Arial which could not have been possible without support
of America. Hence the countries think its America’s
planning. Similarly, the countries are saying the ISIS is
fighting against Taliban and not the country and all this
shows divide and rule policy at the end of US. Similarly,
ISIS increasing relations with regional militants and
terrorist organizations of respective countries e.g. in
Pakistan with TTP, Iran with Jandullah, IMU (Islamic
movement of Uzbekistan) central Asia based terrorist
organization, immediate neighborhood of China and
Russia, ETIM (East Turkmenistan Islamic movement)
against China, Chachan fighter’s nexus etc are proving a
threat for everyone. This is resulting in the brink of a new
spell of civil war in Afghanistan. Similarly, ISIS is
penetrating into the neighbors of Afghanistan to result in
 prolonged instability and its thought that is what US
wants. In addition, they are proving a threat for CPEC. ISIS
biggest enemy is Iran because they are targeting Shia
population plus their defeat was due to Iran. Also, US is
against Iran. Hence ISIS was the main reason why the
neighbors changed their policy towards Taliban. Similarly,
Russia, Iran and Pakistan are being blamed that they are
supporting Taliban. This is being said by NATO and US.
The reason US changed its policy was because of failure to
defeat them.
Revival of Taliban:
The draw down was being celebrated by Afghanistan Taliban as
their victory. Dec 31st 2014 was the draw down date. It was the
partial but substantial withdrawal of international troops from
Afghanistan. By Dec 31st 2014 US and NATO shifted/transferred
operational responsibilities to Afghanistan army and out of
100K, 91200 troops were called back and only 9800 troops were
left. Similarly, NATO pulled out their troops and left only 15K +-
troops. Non-NATO countries pulled out almost all of their troops
from Afghanistan. This withdrawal occurred when Taliban were
not defeated therefor this draw down was celebrated by
Afghanistan as their victory and defeat of US troops. Whenever
a conventional force i.e. army of country, security forces of a
country etc fail to defeat a gorilla force it is the defeat of the
conventional force and victory of Guerilla and that is what
happened in Afghanistan and hence they rightly celebrated
their victory. From a guerilla force to conventional war fighting
techniques. Before 2014 Afghan Taliban continued guerilla,
warfare fighting technique which was basically hide, hit and run
technique. It also included the use of Improvised explosive
devices (IED’s) and suicide bombings. This was before the draw
down. 2014 onward Afghanistan Taliban increasingly applied
conventional war fighting techniques i.e. face to face fighting,
fight, capture and consolidate technique. Hence with the
passage of time the gorilla force got conventional fighting
techniques. According to a report presented in the US congress
Washington has been lying and fabricating truth on multiple
fronts since long.
US-Taliban Negotiations:
Whenever the world saw little ray of hope tensions escalated
time and again however Trump’s statement to the congress
showed that Washington wants to opt out. Trump stated that
great nations do not fight endless wars. When Trump
announced his south Asian strategy at Fort Myer in 2017, he
emphasized a more comprehensive role to be played by India.
However, Trump backed out on his South Asian policy by
adopting a military driven policy towards Afghanistan i.e.
instead of negotiations he sent 5000 more troops instead of
withdrawing them. It also stated that US was to come hard on
Pakistan i.e. they planned on doing drone strikes. In short, they
were to go deep into Pakistan to fight the terrorists. Pakistan
was placed in the FATF list for its failures to stop anti-terror
financing. In addition, they would also stop the aid to Pakistan.
Thirdly it stated to encourage India to have more role in
Afghanistan etc. The main reason for this move was because
deep state strongly uprates i.e. military and intelligence
establishment. The US hostility towards Afghanistan’s
neighbors also spread to Iran. In may 2019 President Trump
announced that the US was backing out of its multilateral
nuclear deal with Iran followed by a re-imposition of sanctions.
The Iranian government was accused of further enhancing
violence in Ghazni province by providing weapons to the
Taliban, while Iran denied these claims alternatively accusing
the US of transferring Islamic State militants to Afghanistan.
This further harmed the Afghan government and Taliban talks.
However, in December 2018 Trump wrote a letter to the PM of
Pakistan in which he requested the PM of Pakistan to help US
out by bringing Taliban onto the dialogue table. Pakistan
succeeded in that as the families of Afghan Taliban are mostly
residing in Afghanistan or Iran and through them, we
influenced the Taliban through them. They also asked Pakistan
to release key Taliban leaders like Mullah Abdullah Baradar. US
team was led by Zalmay Khalil Zad who was provided with the
mandate of developing the opportunities to get the Afghans
and the Taliban to come to reconciliation. The Taliban team
was led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Zalimay Khalilzad in
this new position travelled to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia,
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belgium, UAQ and Qatar with an
interagency delegation. The Taliban received immense foreign
support including resources to finance its operations and even
trade linkages. First 2 rounds occurred in Abu Dhabi, the rest 7
in Doha, Qatar where the deal was also signed. The salient
features of this deal were:
1. US would pull out its troops from Afghanistan. US gave 14
months lay out plan. In the 1st phase 5000 troops were
pulled out. The remaining troops would be pulled out step
wise and their pull out would be conditioned with the
promise of Afghanistan Taliban on topic of peace. Now
the million-dollar question is that would America take out
all its troops? Only time would tell. However, if it wants
peace with Taliban and want them to drop their weapons
they have to leave. US not only wants to end the endless
war it has geo-strategic objectives in Afghanistan which
will prove a challenge to them leaving. However, to end
the endless war US has to leave. If Taliban adhere with the
peace process US will leave but bases most probably
won’t be left alone. However here the question now is
would Taliban adhere to the peace? This is dependent
upon US withdrawal of Troops and ISIS. If ISIS continues
Taliban would continue fighting. Thirdly power sharing
formula between Afghanistan and Taliban would decide
this as to whether Taliban will adhere to peace process or
not. Taliban wants maximum power share whereas US
wants minimum power share to be given to Taliban.
2. Taliban would stop fighting and join the mainstream
government. However, this won’t fully establish peace
 until and unless ISIS is finished because ISIS is an
undeniable reality. There are 2 ways to deal with ISIS i.e.
diplomatic and military. Diplomatic option has not been
pondered over and neither of the parties have tried this
and have instead always chosen the military option. The
neighboring countries have also wanted ISIS to be
eradicated. However there are numerous hurdles in this.
3. War against ISIS would continue. Both Taliban and US
agreed to this. Taliban has been fighting against ISIS in
true meaning. On the other hand, it is to be seen whether
US and NATO and Afghan troops would continue to fight
against ISIS. US has promised to fight. However, this is
dependent upon 2 points i.e. Taliban complying with
peace or not. If they do US would comply and if not, US
would support ISIS and not fight. Secondly the question is
whether US would fight against ISIS? If US wants to
destabilize China and Russia and to destabilize the region
then the best area is Afghanistan and ISIS will continue to
be supported one way or another. Putin, Iranian
President, Ex-Afghan President, Sudan President, Edward
Snorden who started the SNA leaks all stated that America
is supporting ISIS. In 2019 Zalmay Khalilzad after visiting
Kabul said that there is an increasing military drive
against ISIS not only by Taliban but also by international
troops.
 4. Negotiations will be there between Afghan government
and Afghanistan Taliban with US playing the role of
mediator. These were the key points.
Afghan Government-Taliban Negotiations:
In Feb 2018 Afghan President Ashraf Ghani recognized the
Taliban as a legitimate political group and called for
unconditional peace talks. Following this there was an
international peace conference held in Uzbekistan in March
2018 with major allies and the US in attendance. These talks
were strategically scheduled right before the elections in hopes
of stopping the Taliban and preventing them from disrupting
the electoral process. The Afghan parliamentary and
presidential elections were originally scheduled to occur in 2016
but they were delayed. On Oct 20 2018 nearly 9 of 12 million
eligible people including 3 million women came out to vote in
the parliamentary elections during which UNAMA recorded
approximately 435 civilian casualties from election related
violence. Following the elections, the independent electoral
complaints commission (IECC) invalidated all votes cast in Kabul
over one million citing major fraud and mismanagement by the
Afghan independent elections commission (IEC). However non
the less results were announced with Ashraf Ghani and
Abdullah Abdullah coming into power. The Taliban refused to
accept this as they termed the Kabul government a puppet
regime. Hence the peace deal suffered a set-back however the
deal is still going on between the 2. There are 2 major things in
the peace deal between Afghan Taliban and Afghan
Government i.e.
 Both the parties would release their respective prisoners. It
is stuck here. This is the complex phenomenon. In Doha
deal US promised to convince Afghanistan Government to
release Afghanistan Taliban prisoners and in return so
would the Taliban. There are about 12k Afghan Taliban
captured by Afghanistan government. Around 1k Afghan
government key members have been captured. As per the
deal Afghan government was supposed to release all the
prisoners and so was Taliban however the government
refused to release all the prisoners. Likewise, Taliban
boycotted the negotiations and called it off and resumed
attacks. In return Afghan government and US government
resumed attacks but then there were diplomatic efforts by
Pakistan and US and the negotiations resumed. 3 times
they have been called off and resumed. Till date 4000 +
people have been released by Afghanistan government
whereas the Taliban have released 600 prisoners. However
still the key members remain. Till this release of prisoners
is not completed things can’t move forward.
 Power share formula. Time will only tell about this.
Negotiations are yet to begin. Afghanistan government is
not in the mood to give more and more power to
Afghanistan. Their efforts are to give the governorship of
the 12 provinces to Taliban that are already under their
control. However that is quite obvious that Taliban would
 not accept it and would like to have a big share in federal
government if not equal because they are a major entity in
Afghanistan whereas the Afghanistan government is
weak. The government is weak because of the rivalry
between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. Also,
Afghanistan government is dependent militarily and
financially on India and US. Without them they can’t exist.
ISIS is a major hurdle as it does not want US-Taliban deal
to succeed. The main reason for this is because if peace
deal occurs between the 2 the fight will increase against
ISIS. Not only will the Taliban fight against ISIS but so
would US and NATO which would result in their removal
from Afghanistan. Similarly, ISIS does not want Taliban to
talk about peace with US and they would continue to
attack. This can be seen when the 2nd time the conference
was called off because of attack on Ashraf Ghani which
was confirmed by ISIS. India also does not want the
negotiations to succeed as that would result in increase of
role by China and Pakistan and would decrease in role of
India. India does not want this. In the time to come there
will be a lot of setbacks to India not only due to this peace
deal but also because of the deal between Iran and China.
India’s presence in Afghanistan is highly dependent of US
presence in Afghanistan and if they pack up so will India.
Similarly, if Taliban come into power, they will have a
visible tilt towards Pakistan.
Peace Talks Rounds:
These peace talks have never been fruitful which is evident
from:
 QCG: It was held on 8th July 2016. Quadrilateral
coordination group. It comprised of USA, China, Pakistan
and Afghanistan however it failed badly in bringing the
long-wanted peace. Although it brought the insurgents of
Kabul to direct negotiations it failed in what it was meant
to achieve. 3 rounds of conference were held in Doha,
Armchi and Murree. Taliban were wanting for the moon
and the government was offering too little. Both parties
ended with no gain.
 Heart of Asia Conference: It happened on 2nd Nov 2011. Its
aims were to bring the world on the same page regarding
peace of Asian gateway. Unfortunately, International
society specifically India and Pakistan remained divided on
the matter. Indian stance was confined to combat only
while Pakistan’s cordial view remained vice versa.
 Moscow lead Afghan Peace Process. It occurred from
2017-2018. 3 rounds were held hitting the strings of
sectarian fault lines. Except for the 1st round whole world
was invited for the other 2 rounds yet again it failed to
meet its ends.
 Moscow talks. In Feb 2019 a 2 day conference was held in
the Russian capital between the Taliban and prominent
Afghan politicians in a bid to lay down a plan for ending
the war. However on Sep 5 2019 a Kabul car bombing
 carried out by the Taliban that killed 12 people including a
US soldier and a Romanian soldier led to the end of the
talks.
 Doha Talks. The latest rounds of direct talks got underway
in Doha and was focused on 4 main issues:
1. Taliban guarantee that it will not allow fighters to use
Afghanistan to launch attacks outside the country
2. The withdrawal of US and NATO forces
3. An intra-afghan dialogue
4. A permenant ceasefire
Unfortunately, Trump was no different than his predecessors.
Initially peace in Afghanistan seemed a dead end but the spirit
ignited recently when Donald Trump announced to give peace
talks a chance and asked Pakistan for help.
Peace developments in 2020:
In order to end the war between the Islamic republic of
Afghanistan and the Taliban there is a need for a compromise
to reach a political settlement. The deal is intended to pave the
way for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in
exchange for a number of solid assurances by the Taliban to the
US and its allies. According to Khalilzad the peace deal between
the US and the Taliban was intended to test whether it was
possible to end the conflict in Afghanistan through political
means and negotiations. He also said that the ongoing war in
Afghanistan is taking the lives of many Afghans on a daily basis.
The Taliban as part of their commitment to the peace deal
assured the US they will fight terrorism and keep Al Qaeda
elements outside Afghan territory. The US also recognized the
Afghan government as a legitimate and strategic partner not
anyone else. The Taliban demanded the release of 5k prisoners
in exchange for engaging in talks with the Afghan side.
President Ashraf Ghani signed an order to pardon and release
Taliban prisoners in order for the peace talks between
Afghanistan’s government and Taliban to start. According to
the 1st part of the decree the prisoners that will be released will
be required to make a written commitment not to return to
war. The US envoy stated that it was better that a single team
is dispatched for holding talks with the Taliban. Recently Mike
Pompeo called the foreign minister of Pakistan SMQ to discuss
the Afghanistan peace process and praise the part being played
by Pakistan.
Role being played by Pakistan:
Pakistan is playing the leading role in Afghanistan peace
process. From 2008 Pakistan is talking about negotiations and
now finally the neighbors, Ummah, NATO etc have agreed with
us. Hence what Pakistan has been saying for the past 13 years
have proved that Pakistan’s stance was correct. In addition,
Pakistan has played the major role in the peace process.
Pakistan was the mediator. In this whole process India
remained at the back hand and now the negotiations between
Afghan Taliban and government is also being mediated by
Pakistan. No country can do what Pakistan can do in
Afghanistan. This is what Trump said. In addition, after the 2nd
rounds of talks when Taliban opposed talks Pakistan
pressurized the Taliban to continue with the talks. After the 9th
round of talks when they got disbanded Pakistan was the key
player to bring both US and Taliban back to the table. Both
Zalimay Khalilzad and Mullah Abdullah Baradar visited
Islamabad.
Hurdles in the peace process:
1) US-Taliban trust deficit. After the 9th round of talks Trump
announced the discontinuation of talks. The reason was
given that the attacks in Kabul still continued in which the
lives of US troops were given. The tweet stated that talks
and fighting cannot go hand in hand. The spokesperson of
Taliban in retaliation said that we haven’t adopted
anything new and instead have applied US kill and talk
policy. In addition, we did not promise of stopping attacks.
In future we may negotiate with US that international
troops would not be targeted but we would not accept US
demand to fight against Afghanistan army. The inside
story of discontinuation of talks also came forward which
stated that Trump wanted to sign a deal within camp
David between Afghan president and Taliban
representatives in order to gain political millage. However,
Taliban stated that we would sign this deal only in a
Muslim country and not US and that we would visit US
only after signing the deal in a Muslim country.
 2) The Afghan government and political factions are not on
the same page with US on the ongoing negotiations
especially key figures such as Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah
Abdullah as Taliban would gain more and more and this is
not acceptable to them. However, this is also a reality that
Afghan government cannot retain or continue without the
support of America hence they will have to compromise.
3) India does not want negotiations with Afghan Taliban.
India wants fighting because if Taliban comes into power
and Afghanistan pulls out India has to pack up i.e. India’s
presence in Afghanistan has to be drastically curtailed
4) The lack of consensus in Kabul, the failure of the
government and the non-Taliban Afghans in general to
agree on appointment of an inclusive and authoritative
negotiating team able to negotiate with the Taliban will
prove a major challenge and could result in a breakdown.
The deal breakers are the possibility of exceptionally
violent Taliban attacks, the refusal of Afghan government
to go along, a refusal of the Tajiks and hazaras to prevail
military without a deal. But the biggest deal-breaker may
be an inability of the Taliban negotiators to get all the
factions of the Taliban to follow any peace document that
is signed.
Current Scenario: The UN strategic review of 2018 reclassified
Afghanistan from a post-conflict state to an active conflict
state. In 2019 the conflict not only remains active but rather it is
worsening. In the past year there have been an additional 550k
civilian displaced and 3.3. million people pushed past
emergency levels of food insecurity. Another 6.3 million people
need some form of humanitarian and protection assistance. The
battlefield has been less favorable to the Afghan forces who
have already absorbed 46k casualties. Continuing into 2019 the
weakening security situation and tense ties between the US and
Afghanistan’s regional neighbors will act as a stumbling block
to any attempts to bring an end to the conflict.
Conclusion:
To narrow it down the fate of Asia has been tossing blood for
almost 2 decades. These resilient people have endured a lot and
its time to give them peace. However, this process is not as
simple as it seems. Enough time and proper strategy can drag
the region out of this hellhole. It will also ensure an honorable
exit for Washington. The 1st step is a cease-fire and partial
withdrawal of US military machinery. The process of peace will
take a step further if both sides join hands and show results. US
has to slowly opt out as immediate exit will give time and space
to the anti-peace entities to regroup and rise. It might also
encourage them to orchestrate terrorist engagements. Hence a
normal and terror-less life in the land of Afghanistan will
require time. It is going to be a bump and grim road with
hurdles and shortage of fuel but once it is achieved the region
might heal and propser.