PRENTICE-HALL INTERNATIONAL SERIES IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING. Waa L. Boer or erste orergen er Eataaramaruae SS eee ce pe Se eta ecocsemte Seteet vanatce Crt Vawem ond Alcan Principles of Reliability Bich Pesctha, Decor of Neu Scenes ‘hie th, aif Preae-Hal, Ine. rained Cispid esr a aity ening TA (©100 ty Pe egw CM NI ‘A igs mare. Noy of in ok mayb pac sy fom ern Serta vit sn» iy fon Leary of Come Cag Cad Nant: 6-011 Preface In taday’s age of autonain, the complexity of equipment incase so tapiy thatthe etabliy o the euch tome erin protien Inthe year (941, the author heme forthe fest tie avareof heel ily problem ding fight sing ofthe Germar V1 mise. Itai studer of ti mie ner sre in 1958 vpon cominy Yo the United Stata. In the sabreuent sgh yur, the aor hat complied great amount of stay i the Bild of reality theory a a esearch scent ‘ith the Army Rocket and Guided Missle Agee, Restne Arsna, ‘Altama, aud wath be Loctheed Mise sd Space Company, Suna, Calinena. ‘The rault of the salon mere peed Ia sian sympos, ad in eure given at various rivets, “This book is the outgrowth of ese stules. They have been extended by te sus of esearch of ors an bythe Sasa metiogs WHER ‘eve onidereimporan resale “The book tas vebilty tery a a scence apd is dict to the ‘ager Its inenéed i povide he ound ecesay for unde stand- [np d sokingrlatlty protien The only peeqeae fr the book iss Koowicige of clelur sich sei normally ven riven to students of espaceingseenct. A kabeledge of probably theory aod ‘athe sae equre forthe underendng of ls Bock. The bueno these tore even in theft chapter ae suppementel bythe flowing chsplas.Honeve, te book pens te prnepes of laityand mot necessary those of probably and satis, One must Look to thet Soaks wo deepen his Krowledge inthe later Gacpines. Th sdditon to the stl method inva theory, te Book pee sent the fare theory apd its psi foundations Tatempts a mathe- ‘ati fort of the pebem. Starting with simplemente al the hance dstbuton, it progesses to more complex Mime ditbations ‘uch the parma disrbuton, te et tibuton, ned the dria bh etemes-uhich ave derived hy redundant and sete ceanecions. of ‘hese simple elements Further dacusions also form the sss forthe theory of device ieune debulons snd forthe they of maitenance Metis of operations reser which ae stable fore Invertianion of tte ecomcs of relay are dmonitated by + prosem a the theory of preventive maintenance. Meats forthe improvement of relinility ia esign matusetare, and inspection ae theoretical cried and mathe. racy fermolted. In addon tcchaical concep of relly theory, ‘ch ws Jegees of comple, re quantiauidy wented “The book also dscsses the limits tthe appliabily of mathematical Aistbations whieh ocur Inthe thor of relablty, and te ditultes involved in measuring stausial parameters wih sulicentssuray. The ‘to: pretest sstingush betwen whl aking a reat, a iste fon tat seme reliably ergiees and statstcians in the pace seem ‘pha uty wth, ‘May grapics rpesenation: and numerical examples ae included In ore fo facthate We eompreenske ofthe took. Whee apyeabe, ‘ne oF mor problems are gven atthe ead ofeach seston. Thess prob: smite. Tey should do satisfy the purpose of dying the book rather (cing rather than only wading "The suber nde to Lackhued Mise and Space Company, Senay sale Caifoia, and’ the Army Recket and Guided Misie Agency, Rete Arena, Alabama for prowling the opportunity for bute searchin febiiy theory. The results ofthis esench are pty faced Relay Manager at Loebeed Mile and Space Company, 20d Mr Bimmer E) Norman, Manager of the Research Laboratories atthe Army Rocke: and Guided Misile Agency, provide much of the syport neces sary t the propess of thi wo Me Thomas W. Forge Latheed Missle and Spa: Conpany, is eatefilly ackovedged for his sugges ons regarding the wse of the Eels langue i the fst our ehaptes (te fst raf othe manusp “The inal mantsript was competely and careful revised by Mi. Alen Greenwood, Lociheed Missle and Spoce Compay, wih an eye toward ‘ot swe edasated athe language which ths Dookie weiten as eis {nk matoe language. Anyone ho han bad the expense of revaig fn steady exiting txt wil understand how lator sock tik i ‘Mtoe, Me: Greeawsod, whe har hoon cncemed with he rate of Felaty for many years, ude many wef tecial remarks. Ths, the [Ruin ic xremey grateful to Mer Grvenwcodfor i endl help. Fly the suthors warmest harks go 10 ns wie, Mrs. Walrad Pieratchla, who dew all ef theta ite boc and has patel tolemteds hstand who sent eey fee mnt af whole ea ie wea ‘bok rer han devoting this tne is oly nc PrexerciesTable of Contents Dane Stated Comerpts 1 runasery, J [2 Tae reco? RULE oP 4 Pmoaniry reno, 3 1.5) omcReTEoRRNTIONS! THE MHOMAL fT: 14. rt ouminon, 16 The Tlsarenuarton or» TmnuTION, 3S 1 oerFrailre Categories of Nonmaintsinehle Equipments ae Mortality and Fore of Mortality a as 4 Meoralty Dinbtions of Sates wth Redundasty oT Sane Type et Someones “eowwrcres courant 7 16 {oe como, Morality Ditetation Models for Devices Sra muon seunce, 9 56 MoRTaLiry OF WesENSETIVE MODEL PARTS, 123 5% tree or awn m sium hore roe, 177 Sto wna 129Stree Level and Mortality Distribution 135 62 rar horrenaence oF te oisiCTION TYPE, 125 (63 ‘tie soerenoence oF te contre oF ‘vr, 7 64 eran avo rns ave, 100 5 Sono same anion sone to ‘ase aeears 139 ‘ouanan wentacery rowers, 197 Theory of Maintenance 130 “71 meouctons sumer, 129 72 pea ntram serene, 12 1) races covnne wera erenanen, 19 7A terest nara setts, 148 75 tonacrecvowrr serena Af nanan Woe), 13 17. werrarcr meeveroe MMETENANCE, 168 110 a aconcnncs or ratvEwnvE Mannan, 174 Inherent Relishility and Its Degradation during Design, Manufacture, and’ Inopection a9 sak TR 80 nN TENTS, {53 eeroos oF teuniay rrneveteny, 18S caren, 188 As sanucty bison, 187 Diarinaons Applied in, the Theory of wwe ‘AL Tae contonace ron rue OTaRMINATDN OF ny ‘The Measurement of Parameters of the Nerena Disrbution 208 ‘sha ruc, 208Tate of Cott "oauct oF snr, 214 103 sam 216 104 Sraaao bewanon, 200 103. brrtscr or wo weans, 222 10) Tote tours, 228 u ‘The Memurement of One of Two Portions of Populations vith Only Too Disinguishae Atebutes 231 112. arnuesmon oF te FosmToN, 264 11.3. TWe staraeicaL ASSURANCE OF THE EXISTENCE OF 11.9 we nego ear, 280, ‘The Measurement of Parameters of Nonsormad Mortality Distibutions 253 121 4 mie ronan, 285 122 frvueamin or tee aie MORES 0 ronan wrt exc MamYAty, 253 na as isco 37 "reorsucttan: MORAtmy 338 oreuarin wm chance MONTAG 208 iting Straight Lines erative marr act “4 Probability Paper arin op © suhOUe OF pRomauey paren 286 ‘ermavrin, 292 eeDistributon.Free Tolerance Limit 301 15.) Antone scan 48 THOR oF TeODED 152 rwe rier uno or oUTRNUTON aes Toute 153 rw scone eo OF sera TIN PAE TOLER Problem of Guided Minale Reliability and Wave ‘They May Be Saved 10 16.1 weropoctony saver, 310 163 roman mune nos rom AiLATIONSEns AEEWHEN bun ro cararmonae patina, 10 onrontnrs 38 165 tw momscrcaatery OF jsunine THE Arran ery sem 325 167 sonia or ase oF OCeTRRENCE 480 oUTEN aM anersaner, 34 :Basic Statistical Concepts Prliction techniques asocted with relablsy are ‘imostaniverily tad om the probably of ses, designated by p this bock, or the pcbability of failure, shich we devgate by g. AS ‘rotary io this, nomic Items ae scent and eft ems wre flues ‘We introduce the measur» of «probly by means ofan example ‘Toere rem tabes ina tox: succes) fabes would propery work when eed, Jf) would not soccessly operate, Thus, we hve shan wan 3 ope ite el tendon, wt the obit pf pts sondeteine te? Obviously, tee are! canes out of ‘adeno dee he mean pte pbb ings sndetive tube, By the quotient pot (ay CComequenty, he prot of obtaining defective abe wk oy2 ate Sn Cnet met ‘Numarialy, th are 92 nodatne band dative beso FM; f= 8 n= 100 we pet om Eg. (11, (2} and (13) pa on: q= 008 1 there ar oly nendefictive tubes i the Bot, we ae certain of ting a ondeetive tuber In tis cases eqs m apd p equals 1. Thus, the ‘robb | fora event shich mint ceil cst. we Rave ony [Boadefeive bes box, wecansat ges ctv tube. Ths, fequale ‘nd the probably ge O fr smevent which canot ccc ‘re tay sate that 2 probably may assrme values between O and This opts cape mathemati by te ain Ospst (ty) ‘fen the cern is elated to 100 ater than 1, Ths, be probability ‘even nem a percent. In this ce, we ad pr ven (3D aber the ‘rsabity umber and write he ration (1-48) = 100% (tty Let ws liye eles ofthe definion the probity p by meats ofthe “Beoean of arge mute” ‘Retin the enanple tube in ox. we ene one take fm the ‘ovat random andthe, fer oting whether ts fective oot dct, eum tp the ot. Thi eps m timee The rami of Snes 2 ‘oodefective be seed daringthem rah maybe alle Then the ‘theorem of large numrs ater ‘hat the quotiet xm approaches the pobaniy hs see a cls meen, The thorn of lage sums sy ho be epeesed by tn E-p ay ‘Than, probtilty tecones realty wher we cope the expinest may ines (Aeoricall, an laine number of tines) under equal conition ‘Tar ther of ge umber iether factor in mang pot theory a applabe nine. inay es cosier numeral empl. We wi to eerie the prsabity of obining serene tow Of wo dice There ae rie a dierent stnbitiom om fees te ce meng whch the ‘obits 49 6D AI BD BH &D ‘nave the sum Ths, we have st posbiliti f sbaising seven among, {tal of 36 dierent conbiatons "The probably of throwing seven, thereon, oh «mnt oe é Problem 1:1 What i the probably of towing 1S three die? Prblea 12 Wethrow two ce, Computethe pobabitiesof eat ofine 11 diferent sume Ad the It probate, Why mus the reat be 1? Plot the 11 probate a grapal representation ia which te stm of to dic faci the abc Problem L133 We puta thise-vume st of books isto # bookcase at fandom. Compa the probably are the ert ender (Mt, aH, single cut of “The example inthe Sint ention an be espanded. Assumes bon cotsnng 1m tubes of which 5, ae nondeftive, second box With my Fesston of heh, are nondefcane, hid box with my ‘ol ehh yore Dondefesive ete Theioial umber of diferent bots aed component pe desist by ‘We cet one component from each of te diferent boxes (ene be, ove veto, one capac, ste) Whit isthe probably ef geting only Inndetctne components?” At we have desontrated bythe examples of {rowing dein het section, tis probably obtained by ding the number of combaton of only nondeecive component bythe ttl ‘umbe of a ponblecomboations Thus the pobahty Po sbeainng tondeitive components ony umber of combisaton of rons component xty ’ Toa nanber af combinations these at of te ote components ismaitsne, hee aren pouiis exchanging the abes The Sane sue foreach of te ote components. ‘Thus, the tol numberof posible combinations is mmm om Inthe ame manner we nd tht he number ef combination ef nondefecine ‘components nly is On