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Simulation Modeling: To Accompany
Simulation Modeling: To Accompany
Simulation Modeling
To accompany
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition,
by Render, Stair, and Hanna © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Learning Objectives
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
Introduce Important
Variables
Construct Simulation
Model
Specify Values of
Variables to Be Tested
Conduct the
Simulation
Examine the
Results
Table 15.1
Table 15.2
Table 15.3
Tires Demanded
0.65
– 66
0.60 – 65
Numbers
Random
0.40 – 0.35
– 36
35
0.20 – 0.15
– 16
15 Represents 1
0.05 06 Tire Demanded
–
– 05
Figure 15.2 0.00 – – 01
0 1 2 3 4 5
Daily Demand for Radials
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 18
Harry’s Auto Tire Example
◼ Assignment of random number intervals for
Harry’s Auto Tire
Table 15.4
52 06 50 88 53 30 10 47 99 37
37 63 28 02 74 35 24 03 29 60
82 57 68 28 05 94 03 11 27 79
69 02 36 49 71 99 32 10 75 21
98 94 90 36 06 78 23 67 89 85
96 52 62 87 49 56 59 23 78 71
33 69 27 21 11 60 95 89 68 48
50 33 50 95 13 44 34 62 64 39
88 32 18 50 62 57 34 56 62 31
90 30 36 24 69 82 51 74 30 35
Table 15.5
Table 15.6
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 23
Harry’s Auto Tire Example
◼ Note that the average demand from this
simulation (3.9 tires) is different from the
expected daily demand
Expected 5
daily = (Probability of i tires )(Demand of i tires )
demand i =0
Program 15.1
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 25
Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets
◼ Using Excel to simulate tire demand for Harry’s
Auto Tire Shop
Program 15.2A
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 26
Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets
◼ Excel simulation results for Harry’s Auto Tire
Shop showing a simulated average demand of 2.8
tires per day
Program 15.2B
Program 15.3A
Program 15.3B
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 29
Simulation and Inventory Analysis
Table 15.7
Table 15.8
No
Select random number
to generate today’s
demand
Is
demand greater Yes Record
than beginning number of
inventory lost sales
?
No
Is Has
Yes No
ending inventory order been Place
less than reorder placed that hasn’t order
point? arrived yet
?
No Have Yes
Select random
No enough days number to
of this order policy generate lead
been simulated time
?
Yes
Compute average ending inventory,
average lost sales, average number
of orders placed, and corresponding End
costs
Table 15.9
Average 3 orders
number of = = 0.3 orders per day
orders placed 10 days
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 39
Analyzing Simkin’s Inventory Cost
◼ Simkin’s store is open 200 days a year
◼ Estimated ordering cost is $10 per order
◼ Holding cost is $6 per drill per year
◼ Lost sales cost $8
Table 15.10
Table 15.11
Program 15.4A
Program 15.4B
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 50
Fixed Time Increment and Next Event
Increment Simulation Models
◼ Simulation models are often classified into fixed
time increment models and next event increment
models
◼ The terms refer to the frequency in which the
system status is updated
◼ Fixed time increments update the status of the
system at fixed time intervals
◼ Next event increment models update only when
the system status changes
◼ Fixed event models randomly generate the
number of events that occur during a time period
◼ Next event models randomly generate the time
that elapses until the next event occurs
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 51
Simulation Model for a
Maintenance Policy
◼ Simulation can be used to analyze different
maintenance policies before actually
implementing them
◼ Many options regarding staffing levels, parts
replacement schedules, downtime, and labor
costs can be compared
◼ This can including completely shutting down
factories for maintenance
Is the
repairperson No Wait until previous
free to begin repair is completed
repair?
No Enough
breakdowns
simulated?
Yes
Figure 15.4 (b) Compute downtime and
comparative cost data End
Table 15.13
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 57
Three Hills Power Company
◼ Generator repair times required
NUMBER RANDOM
REPAIR TIME OF TIMES CUMULATIVE NUMBER
REQUIRED (HRS) OBSERVED PROBABILITY PROBABILITY INTERVAL
1 28 0.28 0.28 01 to 28
2 52 0.52 0.80 29 to 80
3 20 0.20 1.00 81 to 00
Total 100 1.00
Table 15.14
Program 15.5A
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 62
Building an Excel Simulation Model
for Three Hills Power Company
◼ Output from Excel spreadsheet in Program 15.5A
Program 15.5B
© 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 15 – 63
Two Other Types of
Simulation Models
Figure 15.5