Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research The Global FX Monthly Analyst

GS FX Forecasts versus Consensus and Forwards

Forecast Scores Rel. to Consensus* Scores Rel. to Forwards*

Region Cross Spot 3m 6m 12m 3m 6m 12m 3m 6m 12m

$/C$ 0.98 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.0 -2.6 -3.8 2.1 -0.9 -2.5
$/CLP 484.05 470.00 470.00 465.00 -3.3 -2.6 -2.4 -4.4 -3.1 -3.4
$/COP 1888.00 1800.00 1800.00 1850.00 -4.8 -1.2 2.9 -5.0 -2.8 0.9
Americas $/MXN 12.00 11.75 11.85 12.00 -3.1 1.0 2.0 -3.4 -1.0 -0.3
$/PEN 2.77 2.76 2.76 2.77 4.8 5.6 6.4 -0.1 0.8 1.5
$/ARS 4.03 4.05 4.15 4.30 -0.8 2.2 3.7 -2.4 1.0 0.1
$/BRL 1.67 1.60 1.65 1.70 -8.1 -1.9 1.3 -8.1 -4.1 -2.2
$/TWD 29.55 28.50 28.00 27.80 -6.1 -5.4 -3.5 -6.5 -6.0 -3.8
$/INR 45.17 46.00 46.20 47.00 4.6 5.4 7.1 1.6 0.6 0.4
$/¥ 80.83 84.00 84.00 90.00 2.2 0.1 3.4 4.5 3.2 6.0
$/IDR 8883.00 9000.00 8800.00 8700.00 6.2 2.6 2.1 4.5 -1.4 -3.7
$/KRW 1137.35 1080.00 1030.00 1030.00 -4.8 -6.5 -3.3 -6.5 -7.9 -5.9
$/THB 30.41 29.80 29.50 29.30 -5.4 -4.6 -3.5 -5.4 -5.8 -5.5
Asia
$/PHP 43.88 41.30 40.80 40.30 -7.2 -5.3 -2.7 -9.0 -8.1 -6.8
$/CNY 6.57 6.51 6.42 6.23 -4.3 -5.2 -4.7 -4.3 -5.6 -6.9
$/MYR 3.07 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.1 1.0 1.6 -4.8 -5.8 -5.7
A$/$ 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.4 4.5 3.6 1.9 3.9 3.9
$/SGD 1.28 1.25 1.23 1.20 -3.4 -3.5 -3.2 -5.1 -5.6 -6.0
NZ$/$ 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.76 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.5 2.6 3.1
EUR/PLN 4.04 3.90 3.86 3.80 -3.0 -3.5 -5.1 -6.1 -5.5 -5.3
$/ZAR 6.97 7.25 7.05 6.65 3.4 0.8 -3.3 5.4 1.7 -3.7
EUR/SEK 8.95 8.70 8.60 8.60 2.4 2.0 1.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.0
EUR/CZK 24.38 24.20 23.85 23.60 -1.8 -4.0 -4.5 -0.6 -2.6 -2.2
$/RUB 28.71 28.80 27.90 26.10 -2.6 -6.9 -8.1 0.7 -4.6 -8.2
EUR/HUF 273.35 272.00 275.00 275.00 1.2 2.2 1.7 -2.0 -0.2 -0.7
$/CHF 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.89 -0.9 -5.2 -3.9 2.3 -1.9 -2.0
$/NOK 5.65 5.50 5.31 5.07 -1.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.3 -5.5 -6.5
EUR/$ 1.40 1.40 1.45 1.50 4.2 6.5 6.0 -0.2 3.8 5.3
Europe EUR/NOK 7.89 7.70 7.70 7.60 3.6 4.0 1.8 -5.2 -3.9 -4.4
$/HUF 195.70 194.29 189.66 183.33 -2.4 -4.0 -3.5 -0.9 -2.8 -4.1
EUR/CHF 1.28 1.30 1.30 1.33 3.2 1.1 2.3 1.8 1.3 3.4
£/$ 1.61 1.67 1.73 1.79 4.8 6.5 6.5 6.3 7.6 7.7
$/PLN 2.89 2.79 2.66 2.53 -4.9 -6.8 -7.1 -3.9 -6.0 -6.6
$/TRY 1.58 1.63 1.55 1.47 4.8 0.1 -3.2 4.0 -3.1 -6.8
$/SEK 6.41 6.21 5.93 5.73 -2.7 -5.2 -4.5 -3.2 -6.1 -6.3
$/CZK 17.45 17.29 16.45 15.73 -4.4 -7.1 -6.7 0.0 -4.2 -5.1
EUR/£ 0.87 0.84 0.84 0.84 1.5 2.4 1.2 -5.8 -3.9 -2.2
$/ILS 3.56 3.52 3.35 3.25 -2.8 -7.3 -7.2 -2.1 -7.6 -8.0
Source: GS Global ECS Research
*A reading of +10 means our forecasts is substantially above consensus or forw ards, w hen taking option market probabilities into account. A reading of 0 is in
line, and –10 substantially below . consensus or forw ards. Large divergences from consensus or forw ard are highlighted in grey.
Close 15 March 2011

54 March 2011