Konrad - Adenauer Stratecic Vision Stiftung INSTITUTE ENERGY CRISIS AND NUCLEAR SAFETY & SECURITY OF PAKISTAN Editor Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema A Joint Publication of STRATEGIC VISION INSTITUTE & KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNGStrategic Vision Institute (SVI) Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) is an autonomous, multidisciplinary and non- partisan institution established in January 2013. It is a non- governmental and non-commercial organization administered by a Board of Governors (General Body) supervised under a Chairperson and administered by a Management Committee headed by a President/Executive Director. SVI aims to project strategic foresight on issues of national and international import through dispassionate, impartial and independent research, analyses and studies. The current spotlight of the SVI is on national security, regional and international peace and stability, strategic studies (nuclear non- proliferation, arms control, and strategic stability, nuclear safety and security), and energy studies. Copyright © Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad, 2014 All rights are reserved. No part of the contents of this book may be reproduced, adapted, transmitted, or stored in any form or process without the written permission of the Strategic Vision Institute. Editor Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema Assistant Editor Shahzadi Tooba Hussain Syed IBSN: 978-969-9907-01-2 Price: Pak Rs. 450.00 Us $ 5.00 a CONTACT DETAILS E-mail: svieditor@gmail.com, infothesvi@gmail.com a Web: www.thestrategicvision.com www.facebook.com/svicom Tel: +92-51-8434973-75 Fax: +92-51-8431583 Printed by: Asia Printers, Islamabad Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this edition are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of Strategic Vision Institute.CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgment Acronyms Strategic Vision Institute Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Part 1: Challenges to Pakistan’s Energy Security |. Contours of Pakistan’s Power Crisis Dr. Vaqar Ahmad Il. Dynamics of Demand and Supply of Energy in Pakistan Dr. Najeeb Ullah lll. Energy Crisis: A Reappraisal Engr. Jabbar Memon Part 2: Solutions to Energy Crisis in Pakistan IV. Prospects and Potential of Energy Resources in Pakistan Engr. Salahuddin Rafai V. Rethinking Pakistan's Energy Equation: Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline Arshad Abbasi VI. Affordable/Alternative Solutions to Energy Crisis Engr. Khalid Islam Part 3: Nuclear Energy: An Alternative to Energy Crisis VII. Pakistan Nuclear Power Program 2020: An Alternative to Energy Security Ghulam Rasool Athar VII. Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy: Pakistan’s Experience Haleema Saadia IX. Keynote Address Air Cdre (Retd) Khalid Banuri 10 18 23 24 32 38 43 58 65Part 4: Nuclear Safety Culture X. Principles and Practices of Nuclear Safety Mohammad Rehman XI. Lessons from Nuclear Accidents Tariq bin Tahir XII. Nuclear Safety Culture and Pakistan Mohammad Iqbal Part 5: Nuclear Security XIII. Nuclear Terrorism: Synergy between Safety and Security Dr. Rizwana Abbasi XIV. Current Trends in the Non-Proliferation Regime and Nuclear Security Zahir-ul-Haider Kazmi XV. Pakistan and Nuclear Security Summits Amb. Ali Sarwar Naqvi Contributors Profiles 71 72 81 89 97 98 105 109 113Preface This edition on “Energy Crisis and Nuclear Safety & Security of Pakistan” is not a mere reproduction of the proceeding of the conference on “Energy Crisis and Nuclear Safety & Security of Pakistan”. All the papers and the transcripts in the conference were critically reviewed at SV| and upgraded by the authors who were very kind to afford time out of their busy professional engagements. Despite considerable problems in its formative phase, SVI has succeeded in bringing out this (second) edited book based upon the conference proceedings which are a significant contribution in the existing literature on the vital issues in the field of Pakistan's energy crisis and nuclear safety & security. The edition offers in-depth analyses of the problems Pakistan faces in the above field and identifies the available and affordable alternative options. Equally insightful is the scrutiny of nuclear safety and security issues based upon the lessons drawn from the international experiences and culturally established ethos and standards. In his opening address in the conference, Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, President/Executive Director of the Strategic Vision Institute, expressed his gratitude to the Excellencies, distinguished guests, and students from the universities, colleagues, friends, speakers and chairs of SVI's conference on “Energy Crisis and Nuclear Safety & Security of Pakistan”. He stated that on the behalf of SVI, we are extremely privileged to have such an august audience in the conference. Dr. Cheema appreciated and thankfully acknowledged the support and financial contribution of the Konrad-Adenuaer-Stiftung (KAS) in the successful organization of the conference. Mr. Ronny Heine, Resident Representative KAS, in his introductory remarks, welcomed the participants, guests, speakers and chairs in the conference. Giving the background of KAS, he said, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is named after the first German Chancellor, Konrad Adenauer, who brought democracy, rule of law, and social market economy to Germany. Germany has been following that path for 60 years. The Foundation operates with thefunds from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. KAS runs almost 80 offices in different parts of the world. Its office in Islamabad was established in 2008. He expressed profound pleasure to cooperate with Strategic Vision Institute. The partnership is based on trust and mutual cooperation, for which he thanked Mr. Ross Masood Hussain and Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema. The participants in the conference are well educated and it gives a lot of hope in initiating a dialogue in the society regarding this crisis. The subject selected for the two days conference and this upgraded edition is of great importance in the developing countries like Pakistan, which is already suffering from an acute shortage of energy and needs long lasting solutions to end the energy crisis. Pakistan desperately needs to develop and secure its energy resources to sustain economic growth, which is already suffering from this energy crisis. Energy crisis is one of Pakistan's biggest crises which is also impinges upon its national security. Therefore it is not only important to utilize the latent sources of energy more efficiently in Pakistan, but also explore alternative (renewable) energy resources and nuclear energy to cater its growing energy demands. This edition aims to create awareness on the energy crisis, and to contribute and supplement efforts of the Government of Pakistan in order to chalk out more robust and effective energy policy to deal with this lingering energy crisis.Acknowledgement The Strategic Vision Institute gratefully acknowledges the important institutional support of various government departments, international NGO's, specially Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung, think tanks and private organizations which made it possible to successfully organize the two days conference on “Energy Crisis and Nuclear Safety & Security of Pakistan”, and enabled the publication of this short but highly valuable book. At the individual level, first and foremost, the authors of the chapters/papers, session chairpersons and keynote speaker/s are specially thanked. This publication is essentially based upon their policy analyses and academic contribution. The conference was spread over two days titled “Energy Crisis and Nuclear Safety & Security’. The papers were subsequently reviewed, revised, and upgraded. On behalf of Mr. Ross Masood Hussain (Chairperson SVI) and Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema (President/Executive Director), the editors are profoundly thankful to all our speakers, session chairs, and volunteers for the success of the conference. The publication of this edited book would not have been possible without the important contribution by the authors and speakers, Dr. Vaqar Ahmad, Engr. Jabbar Memon, Dr. Najeebullah, Engr. Salahuddin Rafai, Arshad Abbasi, Engr. Khalid Islam, Haleema Saadia and Ghulam Rasool Athar for their valuable presentations on different dimensions of energy crisis, and offering solutions to this lingering crisis in the country. We are also very grateful to Mohammad Rehman, Tariq bin Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, Dr. Rizwana Abbasi, Zahir-ul-Haider Kazmi, and Amb. Ali Sarwar Naqvi for their excellent presentations on the Safety and Security of Pakistan's nuclear program. We are also grateful to the Keynote Speaker, Khalid Banuri, DG ACDA, SPD, for his very academic and insightful presentation on Pakistan's rationale behind using its nuclear energy option to end energy crisis which impinges upon its national security. Dr. Shaukat Hassan from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) deserves special thanks in helping the