beIN dispute hits MENA pay TV subs

Pay TV revenues for 20 MENA countries fell by 11% between 2016 and 2018 to
just under $3 billion. Given the hangover from the beIN ban and falling ARPUs,
revenues in 2024 ($3.28 billion) will still be lower than in 2016 ($3.36 billion).

Pay TV revenues by country in 2024 ($m)

Turkey, 910
Others, 718

Egypt, 161

UAE, 398
Israel, 675

S Arabia,
417

Source: Digital TV Research

Five countries will contribute 78% of the region’s pay TV revenues in 2024. Turkey
and Israel together will supply nearly half the pay TV revenues in 2024.

Concentrating just on the 13 Arabic-speaking countries, pay TV revenues fell by

16% from $1,254 million in 2016 to $1,059 million in 2018. The total will recover to
reach $1,432 million by 2024. Pay TV subscriptions fell by 9.5% between 2016 and
2018 to 3.40 million, but will progress to 5.23 million by 2024.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Pay TV in the MENA
region has been hit by a Saudi-led ban on the sale of Qatar-backed beIN decoders
and subscriptions since mid-2017.”

He continued: “The ban has been compounded by BeoutQ, an illegal platform that
retransmits some of beIN’s content especially its exclusive sports rights. The region
is no stranger to piracy, but the sophistication of the BeoutQ operation is beyond
anything seen before. beIN is fiercely protesting BeoutQ, with the support of major
content owners, especially sports federations. We believe that the situation will be
resolved in 2019; given the international pressure to drop the ban and to close
BeoutQ.”

beIN lost 464,000 subscribers – or 47% of its subs base - in the two years to end-
2018 to take its total down to 525,000. The 2016 total is unlikely to be bettered until
2021. beIN is forecast have 1.40 million subscribers by 2024.
Pay TV turmoil is not confined to the Arab world. OTT platforms provide
considerable competition to the traditional pay TV sector in the region’s largest
markets: Israel and Turkey.

Israel will lose 10% of its pay TV subs between 2014 to 2024. Israeli pay TV
revenues will fall from more than $1 billion in 2015 to $675 million in 2024 – down
by a third.

The Turkish pay TV market has been shaken up by greater competition. Turkish
pay TV revenues will reach $910 million in 2024; lower than the 2016 total.
However, the number of pay TV subscribers will grow from 7.15 million in 2018 to
9.01 million in 2024. Turk Telekom will become the region’s largest operator by
subscriber numbers in 2020.
 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts

Published in January 2019, this 200-page PDF and excel report is our ninth edition.
The report comes in three parts:

• Outlook: Forecasts for 20 countries in a 47-page PowerPoint document full

of charts, graphs and bullet points;
• Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2024 for 20 countries by
household penetration, by pay TV subscribers, by pay TV revenues and by
major operator. As well as summary tables by country and by platform;
• Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in a 73-page PDF document.

For more information, please click here or contact

lydia@digitaltvresearch.com
 Forecasts for the following 20 countries and 50 platforms:

Country No of ops Platform forecasts

Algeria 3 beIN; OSN; Algerie Telecom
Armenia 0
Azerbaijan 0
Bahrain 3 beIN; OSN; Batelco
Egypt 3 beIN; OSN; Telecom Egypt
Georgia 2 Magtisat; Sliknet
Israel 3 HOT; Yes; Bezeq
Jordan 3 beIN; OSN; Orange
Kazakhstan 2 Alma; KT
Kuwait 2 beIN; OSN
Lebanon 2 beIN; OSN
Morocco 3 beIN; OSN; Maroc Telecom
Oman 3 beIN; OSN; Omantel
Qatar 3 beIN; OSN; Ooredoo
Saudi Arabia 4 beIN; OSN; Invision; Mobily
Syria 1 beIN
Tunisia 2 beIN; OSN
Turkey 5 Turksat; Turkcell; TTNet; Digiturk; D-Smart
UAE 4 beIN; OSN; Du; eLife
Uzbekistan 2 Uztelecom; Uzdigital
 SAMPLE: Saudi Arabia pay TV insight
• Saudi Arabia achieved 100% digital TV penetration in 2015. About 87% of the
6.07 million TV households receive satellite signals, with the vast majority
taking free-to-air channels. Despite IPTV growth, the pay TV penetration rate
will only be 19.4% in 2024, up by 5 percentage points on 2018.

Main assumptions behind the forecasts

• FTA satellite is the most common platform.
• Pay satellite TV has been hit by the ban on beIN (Saudi Arabia was its largest
market) and the illegal nature of BeoutQ.
• IPTV will continue to grow.
• Analog switch-off took place in 2015.
Source: Digital TV Research

• Pay TV revenues will reach $417 million in 2024, up by $110 million on 2018.
Satellite TV ($222 million in 2024) will supply most of the pay TV revenues,
although its share of the total will fall as IPTV ($195 million) makes its mark.

• The ongoing dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar has hit beIN’s subscriber
numbers across the region. Most governments have followed the Saudi ban on
beIN – although not all of them have enforced the ban that effectively. The ban
started in mid-2017. However, we believe that it will be resolved in 2019; given
the pressure on Saudi Arabia to drop the ban and to close pirate platform
BeoutQ from many organizations, especially sports federations and other
content owners.

• beIN is owned by Al Jazeera. Part of the disagreement involves the Saudi

government not liking comments made on Al Jazeera about its regime. The
same is true of the Egyptian government. Egypt and Saudi Arabia were key
markets for beIN. Even when the ban on beIN is lifted and BeoutQ closed down,
beIN is unlikely to regain its former subs numbers in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

• beIN lost 276,000 subscribers in the two years to end-2018 to take its total to
114,000. Despite the likely lifting of the ban and the expected closure of
BeoutQ, the 2016 total is unlikely to be recovered during our forecast period as
the government will continue to discourage beIN subscriptions. We forecast that
beIN will have 349,000 subs by 2024.

beIN monthly subscription fees ($)

Package Channels Price
Access 47 10
Top Sports Access + 14 channels 25
Top Entertainment Access + 26 channels 25
Complete 67 channels 30
Elite Complete + World Cup and Euros + on- 45
demand access
Source: beIN
 • Sports is a major attraction for beIN. As well as World Cup and Euros soccer,
beIN holds the rights to European Champions League, La Liga, Bundesliga,
Serie A, La Ligue and English Premier League football. Furthermore, it screens
NBA, ATP tennis and three Opens, F1 and Tour de France action. beIN has 13
dedicated sports channels. beIN is broadening its appeal into the Entertainment
sphere. beIN acquired the Miramax studio in March 2016.

OSN monthly subscription fees

Package Channels Price
El Farq 69 SAR149
Platinum 93 SAR538
Source: OSN

• OSN had 293,000 residential satellite TV subscribers in Saudi Arabia by end-

2018, with only 18,000 more expected to be added by 2024.

• Satellite TV platform Arab Radio and Television (ART) is Saudi backed.

Reports suggested that ART had as many as 1 million satellite TV subscribers
across the Arabic-speaking countries, although the total fell after ART joined
forces with former rival OSN.

• In March 2014, Saudi-based Arabsat ordered four more satellites; two to

replace existing satellites and two to increase capacity. The satellites will launch
in 2016 and 2017.

Saudi Arabia: Fixed broadband subscribers (million)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3Q18
DSL 1.49 1.56 1.87 1.85 1.38 1.57 1.62 1.40 0.95
Fiber 0.43 0.45 0.58 0.70 0.79
Wimax 0.20 0.30 0.55 0.80 1.22 1.54 1.09 0.40 0.33
Other 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.26 - - - - -
Total 1.74 1.95 2.54 2.92 3.03 3.56 3.29 2.50 2.07
Mobile broadband 2.70 11.34 12.29 14.27 29.1 31.5 23.9 29.7 29.9
Source: CITC

• Fixed broadband penetration reached 2.07 million subs, including WiMAX,

by September 2018. DSL subs numbers are falling, but the other category
(which includes FTTH) is climbing.

• Saudi Telecoms Company is the largest telco (wireless and wireline) in the
Arabic world. As well as offering up to a 300Mbps broadband connection, STC
launched its Invision TV service (including Abu Dhabi Sports and various OSN
packages. However, the beIN channels were dropped) offered as part of a
triple-play package) in August 2010. We estimate that Invision had 305,000
subs by end-2018, with 409,000 forecast by 2024.
• The Basic package provides 90 FTA channels to triple-play subs. Jawwy TV
provides linear channels and 7,000 on-demand titles. STC has carried Starz
Play since September 2016. Other SVOD platforms include Widekhaliji (local
programs) and BluTV (Turkish series).

• Etihad Etisalat, parent of mobile operator Mobily, owns 66% of the Saudi
National Fiber Network, which comprises 24,000km. Mobily’s fiber optic
network offers various TV packs (including OSN) and up to 450Mbps
broadband speeds as part of triple-play bundles. We estimate that the company
had 150,000 IPTV subs by end-2018, which will climb to 251,000 by 2024.
Mobily carries Starz Play (SAR35/month).

• Etihad Atheeb, trading as Go and 15% owned by Bahrain’s Batelco, has

200,000 broadband subscribers (a mixture of WiMAX (up to 3Mbps) and FTTH
(up to 200Mbps)) in 12 cities. The company is yet to launch an IPTV service.
Batelco states that the company lost 13% of its subscribers in 2015, having lost
28% in 2014.

• In May 2017, Zain signed a pan-regional distribution deal with Iflix. Zain also
provides access to Shahid Plus (SAR20/month). Zain had 8.0 million
subscribers in Saudi Arabia by September 2018.

• Launched in June 2006, the five-channel DTT package reaches 90% of the
population, although take-up has been limited. Up to 30 channels (including
commercial ones) are eventually planned. Thomson Broadcast won the
contract to update the network to DVB-T2 in 2014. Analog terrestrial switch-off
took place in 2015.

• The Al Saud family has an iron grip on the country. However, the Kingdom has
been subject to attacks from militant Islamic fundamentalists, who oppose
Saudi Arabia’s close ties to the US.

• GDP per capita was $23,187 in 2018, according to the International Monetary
Fund. GDP growth will be at the regional average in the next five years.
Unemployment rates are fairly high.

• A strict adherent of Islam, Saudi Arabia is the largest Gulf State. Around 8.0
million of the 33.20 million population are expatriates. Riyadh has a population
of 6.86 million, followed by Jeddah (4.33 million), Mecca (1.86 million), Ad-
Dammam (1.13 million) and Medina (1.35 million).
 Saudi Arabia pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024
Total households (000)
TV households (000)
Digital cable subs (000)
Analog cable subs (000)
Pay IPTV subscribers (000)
Pay digital Satellite TV subs
(000)
Free-to-air Satellite TV HH (000)
Analog terrestrial households
(000)
Primary FTA DTT households
(000)
Primary Pay DTT households
(000)

Digital homes (000)

Analog homes (000)
Pay TV subscribers (000)
Total DTT homes (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH

Analog cable subs/TV HH
Pay IPTV subs/TV HH
Pay Satellite TV/TV HH
Free-to-air Satellite TV/TV HH
Analog terrestrial/TVHH
Primary FTA DTT/TV HH
Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/Total HH
Digital/TV HH
Analog/TV HH
Pay TV Subs/TV HH
Total DTT/TVHH

Stand-alone digital cable subs

(000)
Dual-play digital cable subs
(000)
Triple-play digital cable subs
(000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000)

Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000)
Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)
 Saudi Arabia pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024
Revenues (US$ million)
Stand-alone digital cable revs
Dual-play digital cable TV revs
Triple-play digital cable TV
revenues
Digital cable TV subs revenues
Digital cable TV on-demand revs
Digital cable TV revenues
Analog cable TV subs revs
Cable TV revenues
Stand-alone IPTV revenues
Dual-play IPTV revenues
Triple-play IPTV revenues
IPTV subscription revenues
IPTV on-demand revenues
IPTV revenues
Satellite TV subscription
revenues
Satellite TV on-demand
revenues
Satellite TV revenues
DTT subscription revs
DTT on-demand revenues
DTT revenues
Subscription revenues
On-demand revenues
Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)

Stand-alone digital cable subs
Dual-play digital cable TV subs
Triple-play digital cable TV subs
Average digital cable (subs &
VOD)
Analog cable TV subs
Stand-alone IPTV subs
Dual-play IPTV subs
Triple-play IPTV subs
Average IPTV (subs and VOD)
Pay Satellite TV (subs)
Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV)
Pay DTT (subs)
Pay DTT (subs and PPV)
Average monthly ARPU
 Saudi Arabia pay TV forecasts

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024
Pay TV subscribers by operator (000)
beIN (satellite)
OSN (satellite)
Invision (IPTV)
Mobily (IPTV)
Others

Share of pay TV subs by operator %

beIN (satellite)
OSN (satellite)
Invision (IPTV)
Mobily (IPTV)
Others

Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million)

beIN (satellite)
OSN (satellite)
Invision (IPTV)
Mobily (IPTV)
Others

Share of pay TV revenues by operator %

beIN (satellite)
OSN (satellite)
Invision (IPTV)
Mobily (IPTV)
Others

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)

beIN (satellite)
OSN (satellite)
Invision (IPTV)
Mobily (IPTV)
Source: digital TV research
 Saudi Arabia pay TV outlook

Homes by platform (000)

8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2024
A terres 0 0 0 0 0
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0 0
Free DTT 458 352 278 214 41
Free satellite 4,606 4,854 4,942 5,041 5,446
Pay Satellite 493 407 445 485 660
IPTV 386 455 513 561 660
A Cable 0 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0 0

Revenues by platform ($m)

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2024
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0 0
Pay Satellite 228 181 169 175 222
IPTV 104 126 145 161 195
A Cable 0 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0 0
 Saudi Arabia pay TV outlook

Pay TV subs by operator (000)

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2024
Others 0 0 0 0 0
Mobily 124 150 174 196 251
Invision 263 305 338 365 409
OSN 291 293 296 299 311
beIN 202 114 149 186 349

Pay TV revenues by operator ($m)

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2024
Others 0 0 0 0 0
Mobily 33 41 49 56 74
Invision 71 85 96 105 121
OSN 152 140 134 130 126
beIN 75 41 35 45 96
 Digital TV Research publication schedule
2019
Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300
Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300
Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts January £1000/€1200/$1300

2018
European TV Databook November £750/€900/$975
SVOD Databook November £650/€780/$845
TV Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950
Western Europe TV Outlook October £1200/€1440/$1560
TV Databook October £1000/€1200/$1300
SVOD Outlook by Country October £1000/€1200/$1300
Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1800/€2160/$2340
Global SVOD Forecasts September £1500/€1800/$1950
Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300
North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £500/€600/$650
Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video July £1000/€1200/$1300
Forecasts
Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1000/€1200/$1300
Pay TV Subscriber Prospects May £800/€960/$1040
Pay TV Revenue Prospects May £800/€960/$1040
vMVPD and D2C TV Forecasts May £900/€1,080/$1170
Netflix Forecasts May £700/€840/$910
Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950
Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950
Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts April £1500/€1800/$1950
Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650
Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560

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