Risk Factors for Acadentic Achievement of Science and ‘Matlieiatics Majors Anageli sk. Linvaad-Reynante E. Autida ‘College-of Science and: Mathematics teri Mindanao Siate University Abstract The study investigated the correlation between academic and non-aca- demic factors of entering freshmen and their academic achievement in first year, first semester in science and mathematics (S&M) inorder to generate a statistical model that can be used as a risk assessmestt iG! to predict success or failure in academic achievement toward addecazing attrition problem in S&M. A focus group discussion was conducted to elicit students’ reasons for their attrition or retention cases. The study revealed that a statistical Model using Multiple Linear Regression was generated in the form that utilized significant pre-college factors for the purpose of identifying At-Risk or Not-at-Risk students upon admission to the S&M degree programs. The study further revealed that lower academic achievement in S&M is associated with higher likelihood to be At-Risk; hence, the eventual attrition. Consequently, the Model can be used as tool for obtaining valuable information for those At-Risk who would need remediation and assistance, the nature of which may be drawn from the students’ reasons for attrition or retention, in the course of their study in order to retain and succeed in science and math- ematics Keywords: at-risk students, attrition and retention of students, academ- ic achievement, science and mathematics majors, correlational study Recommended citation based on APA 6" edition A.A.Lim & R.E.Autida (2015). Risk Factors for Academic Achievement of Science and Mathematics Majors. Research Journal, vol. 34, pp.18. www.wmsu.edu.ph/research_journal 18 Vol. 34 December 2015Introduction Itis a known fact that science and mathematics disciplines have not received a considerable appeal from students going into University. Very few takers opt to build a career in science and mathematics by pur- suing a degree in these areas of specialization. This poses a drawback to the goal. of science education in the schools which has been to de- velop not only scientifically literate citizens but, on a greater extent, to produce scientists. Apparently, science and mathematics are perceived to be difficult courses to tackle and would require a high degree of in- telligence in order to succeed. This notion has permeated the minds of our students; hence, the road least taken, so to speak. Undoubtedly as it would seem, failure and dropout are a regular occurrence in the course of study. Students’ interest in school science has been declining with an accompanying decline in students’ seeking admission to such degree programs (House of Commons, 2002, cited in Riffat-Un-Nisa, Sar- war, Naz, & Noreen, 2011). Enrolment rates in the natural sciences has shown a decreasing global trend as have been observed in Cana- da, Japan, Australia, India, the USA, and most of the European Union countries (Lyons, 2006). In the Philippines, similar trend is shown, that is, a small number of enrollees in the pure sciences and mathemat- ics notwithstanding their scarcity as curricular offerings in Philippine schools and universities (Gonzalez, 2006). Caineequently, this condi- tion is worsened by eventual attrition that has heme alarming and a serious problem, According to Murtaugh, Burns, & Schuster (1999), student attrition is most likely to occur within the first two years in college coursework so that academic failure is critical at this stage. However, Reason (2003) theorized that most students who are able to succeed academically in the first semester of college are likely to com- plete the degree and eventually graduate House (2000) reported that resii{ty\{om a national retention study shows that only 35 percent of students who began college as sci- ence and mathematics majors persist to eventually graduate The Western Mindanao State University (#82), the lead and comprehensive university of Western Mindanag, 3 mandated to address and sustain its science and mathematics curricular programs. For the past several years, WMSU, through the College of Science and Vol. 34 December 2015 19Mathematics (CSM) has offered the following Bachelor of Science (BS) undergraduate degree programs in the pure sciences to include Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics, and Statistics. It should be noted that WMSU is the sole university in Region 9 and in the Zam- boanga Peninsula that offers the said prog#szt¢'with the exception of Biology and Mathematics. The general trend:irthe number of first year entrants in the degree programs of CSM-WMSU appears to be decreas- ing. The CSM has recorded a meager 4-5% of WMSU student popu- lation for the first semesters of the last four academic years (WMSU On-line Services, 2012). Along this premise, students entering college in science and mathematics are confronted with the risk of failure and subsequent 4% trition. Such risk or its onset, sometimes, is dealt with by students, already becoming a norm rather than a taboo. However, to give ita: renewed focus toward positive intervention to effect academic achieve= ment and success is worthwhile and promising with the underlyiag’ principle that the achievement of student in science and mathemat- ics is greatly influenced by several complex interacting factors. Thus, an early identification of “at-risk” students can go along way through treatment supports toward academic achievement and success. In ef- fect, attrition rate is addressed and mitigated. Statement of the Problem The study was conducted to generate a mathematical model that can be used as a risk assessment tool and predict success or failure in academic performance of student entrants in the sciences and mathe- matics (S&M) toward addressing S&M attrition problem. Furthermore, relationships between and among data variables: the independent vari- ables dichotomized as academic and non-academic factors and the de- pendent variables, academic achievement and student attrition or reten- tion, were investigated. The study was guided by the research paradigm as shown in the following figure. 20 Vol. 34 December 2015Academic 1 College Entrance Test Performance 3. Overall Percentile Rank b. English Proficiency Reading Comprehension Science Process Skill Quasstative Skill Logic & Abstract Thinking Stalls High Schoo! Scholastic Performance 2. General Weighted Average D. Grade in Science ¢. Grade in Mathematics 4 Grode in English High School Type (Private or Public) Parent's Educational Atraument Famly Monthly Income \Geneaaled Pre-Dpllees Risk Assessment MODEL Figure I, Research Paradigm Methods The study population included students enrolled as freshmen at CSM for School Years 2009-2010, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 (N=521). The sample consisted of 210 students or about 40% of the population with complete admission variables as needed in the study. The data were processed by Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS) software to generate the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. Discriminant analysis was also used in the study for SYs 2009- 2010 and 2010-2011 on 159 samples (about 42% of the population) with complete admission variables as needed in the study. The academic variables WMSU College Entrance Test Perfor- mance (CET-I, English Proficiency, CET-I, Reading Comprehension; CET-III, Science Process Skills; CET-TV, Quantitative Skills; CET-V, Vol. 34 December 2015 21Logic & Abstract Thinking Skills; and CET-Overall Percentile Rank) and fourth year high school grades (HSG Science, HSG Math, HSG English, HSG Filipino, and HSG-GWA) were obtained from the col- lege admissions office. While the academic variable college GWA in science and math during the students’ first semester of first year was obtained from the official grading sheet at CSM. The attrition/retention data were also obtained from the official documents at CSM. The non-academic variables were also obtained rata the col- lege admissions office. These variables included: age, gender, ethnicity, type of high school graduated from (public or private), socio-economic status or parents” monthly i income, and parents’ educational attainment. The said variables were chosen based on the literature review, as well as the availability of existing data and the importance of these data in the admission process. All documents were requested through official channels with cover letters with emphasis on ethical handling of all data including its storage and eventual deletion of raw data from memory devices and/or destruction of its hardcopies. Two sets of focus groups were interviewed on separate sched- ules — those who graduate on time at CSM (not at-risk) and those who did not graduate on time at CSM or did not finish their degree at CSM (at risk). These groups belonged to CSM as freshmen for SY 2009- 2010. Ten respondents were able to participate in the FGD on October 16, 2013 representing “not at-risk”, while eight respondents were able to participate on November 13, 2013 representing “at-risk”. Respon- dents were requested to participate in the FGD based on their avail- ability. The head researcher facilitated the interviews and discussions. Elicited responses of each respondent were jotted down by two assis- tant researchers and were also captured using an audio recorder. Multiple Linear Regression was used to generate the model for achievement in Science and Mathematics GWA; Pearson r correlations were also used to determine the association of each dependent variable to the independent variable and to determine the association between achievement in Science and Math GWA and attrition/retention of stu- dents; and Discriminant Analysis to determine the factors for attrition/ retention. 22 Vol. 34 December 2015Results Student admission data were retrieved and utilized representing the academic and non-academic factors as identified for the purpose of this study (Tables 1 and 2). Table | Distribution ef CSM Student Population (N=210) Degree Progratn Frequency Percent BS Biotop 319 BS Chemistry 28.1 BS Mathematics 18.6 BS Statistics 11.0 BS Physics 10.5 Among the five degree programs administered by the CSM, it is shown that the BS Biology has the largest, 31.9%, of student popula- tion while the BS in Physics has the least, 10.5%. Table 2 Student Data on Non-Academic Variables (N=210; Age, x =16) Variable Category Frequency Percent 1. Gender Female ial 67.1 Male 6 32.9 2. Ethnicity Visayan 76 36.2 Chavacano 59 28.1 Others* 38 18.1 Tausog 37 176 3. Type of High School Public 143 68.1 Graduated From Private 67 319 4, Father's Education Without College Degree 124 59.0 With College Degree 86 4L0 5. Mother's Education Without College Degree 128 61.0 With College Degree 82 39.0 Vol. 34 December 2015 23Table 2. [continued] 6. Family Monthly Income —-2-SK 66 314 5-10K 55 26.2 10-20K 58 27.6 >20K 31 14.8 *Subanen, Sama, Ilocano, Tagalog, Kalibugan, Ilonggo The data shows that most CSM students are females (67.1%) and belong to Visayan and Chavacano ethnic groups (36.2%) and (28.1%) respectively, and come fram public high school (68.1%). Most students have parents with no cotiege deeree and belong to low-income families. Table 3 presents the student data on academic variables described by average grade or rating and the standard deviation. Table 3 Student Data on Academic Variables (N~210) Category Variables Mean Std Dev. 1. WMSU CET CET I - English Proficiency 73.98 19.43 Performance (% ile) CET Il - Reading 72.39 21.83 Comprehension CET Setenca fi 72.54 19.74 69.67 23.25 80.14 20.43 Overall Perceiitile Rank 79.59 14.11 2. High School English 87.79 3.68 holastic Performance (%) or Grade Filipino 88.18 Math 87.33 4.11 Science 87.11 3.56 GWA 88.17 2.97 24 Vol. 34 December 2015The High School Scholastic Performance (HSSP) shows that the students belonged to the upper 10% of their high school graduating class. High school grades; namely, Filipino (Fil), English (Eng), Sci- ence (Sci), Mathematics (Math) appear to be in agreement with each other as well as to the HSG GWA grade ranging from 87 — 88 % The WMSU CET Performance reveal ratings that represent top 25% of those of those who took the entrance test and top 45% of those who qualified for admission. The subtest component ratings appear to be in agreement with each other and each subtest rating likewise to the overall CET rating Highest rating 80.14% is shown for Logic and Abstract Think- ing Skill but quite low in quantitative skills. These two skills are con- sidered predictive of performance in the sciences. Table 4 displays the predictors with their correlation values Table 4 Correlations of Predictor Variables to Academic Achievement* (N-210) Predictor Variables Pearsonr Sig. (2-tailed) 1. HSG GWA - 0.604 0.000 2. HSG Fil - 0.474 0.000 3. CET IV — Quantitative Skills - 0.467 0.009 4. CET III — Science Process Skills - 0.431 0.001 5. HSG Eng - 0.405 0.013 6. Ethnicity — Others 0.178 0.004 7. Income > 20K 0.088 0.008 * Academic achievement was coded following the WMSU grading sys- tem | to 5 wherein | serves as the highest possible grade while HSG and CET ratings are coded in percent and percentile rank, respectively. As can be seen, HSG GWA, HS&Fil, CET IV, CET III and HSG Eng scores are negatively and sigetfiea ntly correlated with the academic achievement in science and miatheriatics, indicating that stu- dents with higher scores on these scales have lower scores on the ci terion _variable_after controlling for the other_variables in the model; Vol. 34 Decembsr 2015 25however, lower scores would mean high achievement in science and mretics. Furthermore, Ethnicity (Eth) - others and Income (Inc) 000 are positively and significantly correlated with the criterion variable, indicating that those who belong to these categories tend to have lower course grade or higher achievement in science and math- emi This concurs with the findings of the study conducted by Dae- mpfi (2903) which reported the positive influence of cognitive factors toward success in college work The correlation found beteeen achievement in science and each of the factors showed agreemé# with some studies. The study of Rohr (2009) showed that Scholastic ititude Test and College Preparatory GPA were significant predictors of retention of science, mathematics, engineering technology and business students. The findings of Gilmer (2007) reported that success in Mathematies.cr good performance i in quantitative skills is a key to success in scé “technology, engineer- ing and mathematics majors. The study of #2: (2010) found that the students who are good in English and Filipino and who speak the two languages are also good in science. The MLR Model with the seven predictor variables produced an R = 0.735 and R2 = 0.540 with F (7, 202) = 33.937, p > 0.000 as shown in Tables 5 and 6. Table 5 MLR Model Summary N R R* Adjusted R* Std. Error of the Estimate 210 0.735 0.540 0.525 0.42012 Table 6 ANOVA Results Model Sum of df Mean F Sig. Squares Squares L Regression 41.929 7 5.990 33.937 0.000 Residual 36.653 202 177 Total 77.582 209 26 Vol. 34 December 2015Thus, the generated statistical model is in the form as follows: Eng + CET II 15+ Eth-Others Y = HSG GWA (-0.101) + CET & (-0.006) + HSG Fil (-0. (0.204) + 11.911 where Y is the predi¢ted'average grade in science and mathematics courses. When Y > 3.0, the student is identified as At-Risk. When Y < 3.0, the student is identified as Not-At-Risk. The R Square value indicates that 54% of the variance in the academic achievement is accounted for by the Model. The standard error of the estimate, 0.42012, indicates a reasonably less estimation error rendering the Model as good-fit. The MLR classification (Table 7) shows that the total accuracy of prediction was 81%. Table 7 MLR Classification Results At-Risk or — Predicted Group Total Not At-Risk Membership AtRisk Not-At- Risk Observed Frequency At-Risk 26 14 40 Group Mem Not At-Risk 25 145 170 bership Percent, % At-Risk 65 35 100 Not At-Risk 15 85 100 4 DEA was conducted to determine the factors associated with students” atirition/retention. The structure matrix revealed only six sig- nificant peedietors as shown in the following table. Vol. 34 December 2015 27Table 8 Factors for Attrition/Retention Using Discriminant Analysis (N=159) No Predictor Variables Structure Matrix Correlation 1 HS Science 0.575 2 HS GWA -0.521 3 HS English -0.512 4 CET-III 0.474 5 HS Filipino -0.411 6 CET-OAPR -0.301 Table 9 displays the Box’s M indicating that the assumption of equality of covariance matrices was not violated (p>0.05). The dis- criminate function revealed significant association between groups and all predictors, accounting for 26.83% of between group variability. The proportion of total variqhitity is not explained, i.e. the converse of ca- ipiiietcied by Wilks’ lamda which indicates the function as signititaitl (4,5) and 73.2% unexplained. A summary of DFA result is shee fie Lie Table 9 Summary of Discriminant Function Analysis Box’s M Sig. Canonical Wilks’ Lamda orrelation Value Sig. 0.057 E0518 0.732 0.005 Point biserial correlation was used to determine the relationship between freshmen science and math academic achievement and reten- tion/attrition in the degree program. Result showed that the academic achievement has moder: relation of (10.458 at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) with ar shown in Table 10. Table 10 Correlation of Academic Achievement and Attrition/Retention Pearson r -0.458 Sig. (2-tailed) p< 0.01 28 Vol. 34 December 2015The negative sign indicates the inverse relationship of the two variables. However, note that the achievement was coded following, the WMSU grading system of 1 to 5 with 1 as the highest possible grade and retention/attrition was dummy coded as | for Noi-At-Risk and would likely graduate on time and 0 for At-Risk and would likely not graduate on time or would not complete the Science and.xeathemet- ics degree. Thus, the higher the CSM GWA grade of students, the ntore likely the student would graduate on time. The lower the CSM grade of students, the more likely the student would not graduate on time or would not complete the S&M degree. This result is in agree- ment with Reason (2003) who theorized that most students who are able to succeed academically in the first semester of college are likely to complete the degree and eventually graduate. The FGD responses generated patterns that pointed to the per- ceived causes why students either graduated on time with their batch (retention) or dropped out, overstayed/not graduate on time (attrition). Below are the perceived causes or assertions with some examples of responses. Table 11 Summary of Perceived Causes of Attrition/Retention A. Attrition ‘Assertion |: Students show academic inadequacy mathematics disciplines. *... cannot maintain good grades.” ~ Interviewee A “T failed in two subjects.” - Interviewee B “I get traumatized because I always get a grade of 3.0. = Interviewee C Vol. 34 December 2015 29Table 11. [continued] Assertion 2; Students seem to lack commitment for the science and mathematics degrees being pursued because it is not their first choice. “BS Math does not interest me.” - Interviewee C “There was no a took BS Physic: ailable Engineering slot anymore so I instead.” - Interviewee D “Even if my aim is only to take BS Biology, as long as I can graduate.” ~ Interviewee A Assertion 3: Students bear the notion that there is poor job opportu- nity in science and mathematics degrees. “Nothing will happen if I take BS Biology, so I shifted to BEEd.”’ = Interviewee B “There is no future in science.” - Interviewee E ie “In engineer + Interviewee F . there is job placem B. Retention ‘Assertion 1: Science and Mathematics (S&M) are alternative courses to address financial problem since scholarship in S&M are readily available, “Lwas able to complete my degree on time because of the scholarship.” - Interviewee A 30 Vol. 34 December 2015Table 11. [continued] “T had no choice but to take BS Physics due to DOST scholarship.” - Interviewee B “I could not have completed the degree if not due to the scholarship. - Interviewee C Assertion 2: Students who belong to high ability level are able to quality for competitive scholarship to S&M even if not their choice but succeeded anyway. “I was able to maintain the scholarship.” - Interviewee D “Chemistry is difficult but I know I can manage it because Thave good Chemistry background in high school.” - Interviewee E Assertion 3; Peer motivation and challenge are contributi ti g factors to retention. “T think I succeeded due to friends and classmates who motivated me.” - Interviewee F “It is embarrassing to be left behind by classmates in class performance,” - Interviewee G “We organized group study.” - Interviewee H Vol. 34 December 2015 31Discussion The study generated a statistical model using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) utilizing significant pre-college factors (like hi: school grades, college admission data, and college entrance test result to predict At-Risk and Not-At-Risk students upon admission to the Sci ence and Math (S&M) degree programs. Moreover, this Pre-College Risk Assessment Model can be a tool for obtaining valuable informa- tion to identify S&M students who would need remediation and assis- tance in the course of their study in order to succeed. The risk factors or predictors for academic achievement in science and mathematics are embedded in the Model that include High School Grade — General Weighted Average (HSG GWA), High School Grade in Filipino (HSG Fil), College Entrance Test - Quantitative Skills (CET IV), College En- trance Test - Science Process Skills (CET III), High School Grade in English (HSG Eng), Ethnicity - Others, and Income > 20K. The vari- ables HS GWA, HSG Fil, CET III (Science Process Skills), and HSG Eng are common risk factors associated with academic achievement and attrition/retention which sypperts the relationship found between academic achievement in S&S gic: attrition/retention cases. The study further revealed that lower acadesi¢ achievement in science and math- ematics is associated with’ higher likelihood to be At-Risk; hence, tt eventual attrition. Thes ilts are in agreement with some relat works like that of Daewifie £2003), Gilmer (2007), Rohr (2009), and Rubio (2010). Although cognitive factors poses a positive influence on suc- cess in college work including academic performance in English and Filipino, it is interesting to note that the non-academic factors ethnicity and high income are contributory. This reconciles with the perceived cause why “at risk” students who perform poorly in the S&M would drop-out or shift from the degree program to a non-science course ei- ther in the same University or in another institution. On the other hand, those who succeed and complete the S&M degree are those who belong to high ability level even if they are not highly motivated. However, S&M has become an option to address financial problem because of available scholarships without which they would not be able to pursue and complete a college degree. The generated model can be further validated by using other ‘sepgrams and test statistics which can satisfy basic assumptions of 32 Vol. 34 December 2015its usage. Analysis of its large missing data may also be properly ad- dressed in future studies. The current generated model can already be applied to incom- ing entry students so as to identify At-Risk and Not-At-Risk students at pilot-scale level. Appropriate intervention programs, the nature of which may also be drawn from the students perceived causes for attri- tion can then be implemented to help those students predicted to be At- Risk. It is recommended that the intervention programs address psy- chosocial factors like motivation, commitment, time management, and career orientation and opportunities and the same factors be considered in future studies. The various units in the University which provide academic and non-academic services to students play a vital role in the implementation and success of any of these intervention programs. Similar approach in dealing with attrition/retention studies is recommended to be implemented to other undergraduate and even graduate programs in the University. This may help ensure proper use and delivery of basic services of University resources to wider number of student-clients in the future. References Daempfle, PA. (2003). An analysis of the high attrition rates among first year college science, math, and engineering majors. Journal of College Student Retention, 5(1), 37-52. Gilmer, T.C. (2007). An understanding of the improved grades, reten tion and graduation rates of STEM majors at the Academic Investment in Math and Science (AIMS) program of Bowling Green State University (BGSU). Journal of STEM Education. 8(1&2), 11-21. Gonzalez, F. (2006). Higher education in South East Asia: the Philip pines. Bangkok, Thailand: UNESCO Bangkok & SEAMEO REHID. Vol. 3% ‘ecember 2015 33House, D.J. (2000). Academietstkgraund and self-beliefs as predic tors of student grade performance in science, engineering and mathematics. International Journal of Instructional Media, 27(2), 207-220. Lyons, T. (2006). Different countries, same science classes: students” experiences of school science in their own words. International Journal of Science Education, 28(6), 591-613 Murtaugh, P.A., Burns, L.D., & Schuster, J. (1999). Predicting the re tention of university students. Research in Higher Education, 40, 355-371 Reason, R.D. (2003). Student variables that predict retention: Recent research and new developments. NASPA Journal, 40(4), 172- 191. Riffat-Un-Nisa, Sarwar, M., Naz, A., & Noréeie, toward science among school studexzs >! review study. Journal of College Tescisi# 43-50. (2011). Attitude a fent nations: a part Learning, 8(2), Rohr, S.L. (2009). Improving student retention of future members of the science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and busi ness workforce. (Doctoral dissertation, Indiana State Technol ogy). Rubio, K.C. (2010). In science learning: Two languages are better than one. Paper presented at MLE Confab-Workshop, Feb ruary 18-20, 2010 in Cagayan De Oro, Philippines. Retrieved fromhttps://mlephil.wordpress.com/mle-papers-at-cdo/, WMSU On-line Services. Retrieved at http://www.wmsu.edu.ph. 34 Vol. 34 December 2015