How to Build a Good Investment Paper

Presented By :

Rizqi Harry Ramadhan

Akuntansi FEB Undip 2018
Vice President of Educational Development KSPM
FEB Undip 2019-2020
DISCLAIMER

The report is only intended for educational

purposes for the Internal Training CMC
Polines. The information is not intended to
be used as the basis of any investment
decisions. The information does not
constitute as investment advice to buy or sell
any security.
Part of Investment Paper (Commonly)

Makro and
Industry Overview Valuation

Highlight Investment
Summary

Financial Investment
Company
Anlysis Risk
Profile
HIGHLIGHT

Highlight bersifat opsional, meskipun demikian merupakan bagian yang

sangat penting dalam sebuah investment paper.

● Investment Thesis
● Financial Highlight
● Market Profile
● Share price
HIGHLIGHT
Company Profile/Business Description
Company Profile hanya menjelaskan secara singkat kegiatan perusahaan,
highlight bagian pentingnya saja.

History Revenue Strategy

Breakdown
Product Shareholder
Cost Structure
Asset GCG and CSR

Company
Profile Makro and Financial
Valuation Investment Risk
Industry Analysis
Company Profile
 Makroekonomi

Tips : Pilihlah isu makroekonomi yang memiliki sentimen terhadap emiten tersebut.

New Trend Domestif &

Trade War Foreign Demand

Economics Current Trend

Growth

Monetary Expansion
Domestic Regulation

Makro and
Company Industry Financial
Valuation Investment Risk
Profile Analysis
Makroekonomi
Industry Analysis

Bergaining Power of Supplier

Bergaining Power of Customer

Threat of New Entrants

Threat of Substitute

Competitive Rivalry
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45%
Makro and
Company Industry Financial
Valuation Investment Risk
Profile Analysis
Industry Analysis
Financial Analysis

Rasio Liquiditas Rasio Aktivitas

Menunjukkan kemampuan perusahaan Menunjukkan sejauh mana efisiensi perusahaan
memenuhi kewajiban lancar tepat pada dalam menggunakan assetnya untuk
waktunya memperoleh profit

Rasio Solvabilitas Rasio Profitabilitas

Menunjukkan kemampuan perusahaan atas Menunjukkan seberapa besar kemampuan
pelunasan hutang degan menggunakan modal perusahaan untuk memperoleh laba dari kegiatan
maupun aktiva yang dilakukan

Financial
Company Macro and Analysis Valuation Investment Risk
Profile Industry
Financial Analysis
Valuation

Absolute Valuation
Relative Valuation

DCF FCFF
Biasanya digunakan untuk
menilai perusahaan dengan
arus kas bebas yang tidak
DDM DCF FCFE lancar/siklikal.
Dapat menggunakan P/E, PBV
Penggunaannya melalui peers
Dasar penghitungan DCF dapat menggunakan EBIT, Net
comparison
Income atau Operating Cash Flow

Company Makro and Financial Valuation

Investment Risk
Profile Industry Analysis
Valuation
Key Assumption
Beta = Ukuran sensitivitas return saham
Beta 0,29
Market Return 9,17% Rf = Risk Free Rate (Gov Bond RI 10Y)
Rf 6,82% Rm = Market Return (IHSG Return)
Ke 7,51%
Kd 3,1% Ke = Cost of Equity
Tax 22% Kd = Cost of Debt
WACC 6,41%
Terminal Growth 2%
WACC = Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Ke = Rf + Beta * (Rm-Rf)
Rm – Rf = Market Risk Premium
WACC = Ke * Portion of Equity + Kd*(1-T)*Portion of Debt

Company Makro and Financial Valuation

Investment Risk
Profile Industry Analysis
Valuation
Description 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Terminal Value
EBIT 7.400.117 8.140.129 8.954.142 9.849.556 10.834.511 11.917.962
Tax 25% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
EBIT (1-T) 5.550.088 6.349.300 6.984.230 7.682.653 8.450.919 9.296.011
Depresiasi dan Amortisasi (1.205.100) (1.389.481) (1.602.073) (1.847.191) (2.129.813) (2.455.676)
Capital Expanditure 2.026.600 2.226.729 2.446.620 2.688.226 2.953.691 3.245.371
Working Capital 10.068.600 10.678.101 11.324.497 12.010.023 12.737.047 13.508.082
Change in Working Capital 3.182.400 609.501 646.397 685.526 727.024 771.034
Free Cash Flow 1.546.188 4.902.552 5.493.286 6.156.092 6.900.016 7.735.281
Projection Year 0 1 2 3 4 5
Terminal Growth
WACC
Discounted Factor 1 0,940 0,883 0,830 0,780 0,733
PVIF 1.546.188 4.607.425 4.851.816 5.109.909 5.382.626 5.670.955 131.299.673

FCFF = EBIT(1-T) + Amortisasi dan Depresiasi – Capex – Change In Net Working Capital

Discounted Factor menggunakan rumus Present Value (1+i)^-n

Terminal Value = Estimasi Nilai Perusahaan dari Keseluruhan arus kas masa depan
= PVnthnterakhir*(1+TG)/WACC-TG)
Valuation
Peers Comparison ULTJ INDF CLEO ADES MYOR ICBP AVERAGE
P/E Ratio 18,85 11,82 48,18 9,81 28,45 17,79 22,48
ROE 18,18% 13,98% 15,62% 13,13% 17,70% 23,52% 17,02%
EPS 96 647 11 135 84 579 259

DCF FCFF Model

PV of FCFF 27.168.919 Absolute Valuation 80% 11.727 Rp 9.381
PV of Terminal Value 131.299.673 P/E Multiples
Enterprise Value 158.468.592 Target P/E Relative Valuation 20% Rp 2.141
22,48 10.704
MV of Debt 21.699.767
Target EPS 476 Target Price 100% Rp 11.522
Equity Value 136.768.825
Target Price Rp 10.704 Current Price Rp 10.350
Shares Outstanding 11.663
Target Price Rp 11.727
Potential Upside 11%
Current Price Rp 8.825 Recommendation BUY
Potential Upside 33%

Ketika perhitungan valuasi sudah menemukan hasil akhir dapat dikombinasikan dengan
relative valuation dengan melakukan pembobotan untuk hasil akhir
Valuasi
Investment Risk

Risiko Komponen

Market Risk Kompetitor, Economics, Commodity Price Volatility, Kurs

Operational Risk Resources, Business Process

Financial Risk Liquidity Risk, Interest Risk, Default Risk

Environtmenal Risk Occupational Safety and Health Risk

Regulatory Risk Tax, Government Intervention and Regulation, Gov Policies

And many more You can improve by looking at the characteristics industry and company

Setelah mengetahui risiko yang dihadapi perlu untuk melakukan Risk Assesment

Company Makro and Financial Investment Risk

Valuation
Profile Industry Analysis
Investment Risk

Risiko Biaya (RB)

Risiko Operasional (RO)
Risiko Bunga (IR)
Risiko Nilai Tukar (ER)
Risiko Politik dan Perizinan (RP)
Risiko Harga (RH)

Company Makro and Financial Investment Risk

Valuation
Profile Industry Analysis
Investment Summary

● Recommendation
● Investment Thesis
● Most Powerfull Things
● Target Price
● Potential Upside
● Highlight Stock History
Analisis Teknikal
Appendix

Forecast Income Statement

Forecast Balance Sheet
Sheet Valuation
Pendukung argument rekomendasi lainnya.
THANK YOU