Months Time Series Forecast (Naïve Forecast Absolute Square Percentage

Method) Error Forecast Error Forecast Error Error

1 50
2 49 50 -1 1 1 -2.04
3 52 49 3 3 9 5.77
4 55 52 3 3 9 5.45
5 46 55 -9 9 81 -19.57
6 59 46 13 13 169 22.03
7 60 59 1 1 1 1.67
8 51 60 -9 9 81 -17.65
9 46 51 -5 5 25 -10.87
10 52 46 6 6 36 11.54
11 60 52 8 8 64 13.33
12 57 60 -3 3 9 -5.26
13 53 57 -4 4 16 -7.55
14 55 53 2 2 4 3.64
15 46 55 -9 9 81 -19.57
16 52 46 6 6 36 11.54
17 59 52 7 7 49 11.86
18 45 59 -14 14 196 -31.11
-5 103 867 -26.79
Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Mean forecast error: 0.00

2.04 Mean absolute error: 6.06

5.77
5.45 Mean squared error: 51
19.57
22.03 mean absolute percentage error: 11.79
1.67
17.65
10.87
11.54
13.33
5.26
7.55
3.64
19.57
11.54
11.86
31.11
200.45
 Forecast (Past Values Forecast Absolute Square Forecast Percentage
Months Time Series
Method) Error Forecast Error Error Error
1 50
2 49 50 -1 1 1 -2.04
3 52 49.50 3 3 9 4.81
4 55 50.33 5 5 25 8.48
5 46 51.50 -6 6 36 -11.96
6 59 50.40 9 9 81 14.58
7 60 51.83 8 8 64 13.61
8 51 53 -2 2 4 -3.92
9 46 52.75 -7 7 49 -14.67
10 52 52 0 0 0 0
11 60 52 8 8 64 13.33
12 57 52.73 4 4 16 7.50
13 53 53.08 0 0 0 -0.16
14 55 53.08 2 2 4 3.50
15 46 53.21 -7 7 49 -15.68
16 52 52.73 -1 1 1 -1.41
17 59 52.69 6 6 36 10.70
18 45 53.06 -8 8 64 -17.91
13 77 503 8.75
Absolute Value of
Percentage Error Mean forecast error: 0.77

2.04 Mean absolute error: 4.53

4.81
8.48 Mean squared error: 29.59
11.96
14.58 mean absolute percentage error: 8.49
13.61
3.92
14.67
0
13.33
7.50
0.16
3.50
15.68
1.41
10.70
17.91
144.26
 Regression Analysis
Months Time Series Moving Average Weighted Average Exponential Smoothing (Linear Trend Time
Method Method Method
Series)

1 50 49.65
2 49 50 50.75
3 52 49.80 51.85
4 55 50.24 52.95
5 46 51.50 52.40 51.19 54.05
6 59 50.50 50.20 50.15 55.15
7 60 53 53.60 51.92 56.25
8 51 55 56.40 53.54 57.35
9 46 54 54.80 53.03 58.45
10 52 54 51.60 51.62 59.55
11 60 52.25 50.80 51.70 60.65
12 57 52.25 53.90 53.36 61.75
13 53 53.75 55.80 54.09 62.85
14 55 55.50 55.50 53.87 63.95
15 46 56.25 55.30 54.10 65.05
16 52 52.75 51.20 52.48 66.15
17 59 51.50 50.90 52.38 67.25
18 45 53 53.90 53.71 68.35
t y1 tY1 t^2
1 50 50 1
2 49 98 4
3 52 156 9
4 55 220 16
5 46 230 25
6 59 354 36
7 60 420 49
8 51 408 64
9 46 414 81
10 52 520 100
11 60 660 121
12 57 684 144
13 53 689 169
14 55 770 196
15 46 690 225
16 52 832 256
17 59 1003 289
18 45 810 324
171 947 9008 2109

t Y b1 b0
9.5 52.61 11.5 48.55
484.5
0.02