THE 7th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

"CIVIL ENGINEERING - SCIENCE AND PRACTICE"

GNP 2020 – Kolašin, Montenegro, 10-14 March 2020

Armin Hadrović 1, Mili Selimotić2, Ismet Hajduk 3

TEMPERATURE ACTIONS FOR TIME HISTORY THERMO –STRESS

ANALYSIS OF THE JABLANICA DAM

Abstract
The method of determining the synthetic, extreme year sinusoidal functions of air and reservoir
water temperature changes necessary for time history thermo-stress safety assessment of the
HPP Jablanica dam is presented, as well as a method of determining static usual and unusual,
summer and winter load combinations. The results and methodology of different levels of
statistical processing of data obtained through 50 years of air and water temperatures, reservoir
water levels, and displacements measurements near and at the dam are also presented. Air and
reservoir water temperatures in calibration and extreme synthetic safety assessment year are
approximated by sinusoidal functions. Change of water temperatures with respect to reservoir
level is considered. Lagging or time shift of water temperature at different reservoir levels as
well as concrete temperature relative to air temperature is also statistically determined.
Constant annual foundation temperature is obtained from acquired data. Temperature at the
time of vertical joints grouting to determine concrete temperature difference is taken from
original dam design project. Extensive laboratory tests, sensitivity and parameter calibration
analysis is undertaken in order to obtain mechanical deformability and strength rock mass and
concrete parameters as well as thermal parameters of concrete. Finally, appropriateness of
adopted laws for ambient temperature changes are, earlier, checked by 3D FEM thermo-stress,
time history dam analysis where the perfect fit between calculated and measured plums
displacements at the control and crest gallery in calibration year are obtained.
Key words
Extreme year sine function, static usual and unusual load combinations, calibration and
synthetic year, concrete temperature time shift.

1
Van.prof.dr., dipl.ing.građ., Univerzitet „Džemal Bijedić“ Mostar, Građevinski fakultet, armin.hadrovic@unmo.ba
2
Van.prof.dr., dipl.ing.građ., Univerzitet „Džemal Bijedić“ Mostar, Građevinski fakultet, mili.selimotic@unmo.ba
3
Docent dr., dipl.ing.građ., Univerzitet „Džemal Bijedić“ Mostar, Građevinski fakultet, ismet.hajduk@unmo.ba

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1. INTRODUCTION

In order to check the safety of existing dams, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive
statistical analysis of existing measurements, given that for most of such dams there is a significant
database from the previous period of their service. One of the basic effects affecting the safety of
arch-gravity dam, such as the dam of HPP Jablanica, is the change in the dam concrete temperature
depending on the thermal properties of the concrete and the change in the ambient air temperature
and water temperature in the reservoir. Although changes in these actions on an annual basis are
periodic in nature, they are certainly not sinusoidal functions. However, the sine function of their
annual variation is adopted as a very good approximation, which is undoubtedly confirmed by the
excellent matching of the results of the time-history thermo-stress analysis of the dam's
displacement obtained in the DIANA application, with the measured displacements in the selected
calibration year [3] and [4].

2. TEMPERATURE LOADS

The temperature load arises as a result of the temperature difference between the
temperature effects during the service of the dam and the temperature at the time of grouting of the
vertical contraction joints, i.e. mounting temperatures. The grouting temperature of the joints was
taken from the original project of the Jablanica dam, where it is stated to be 10 C. The same
constant temperature value was adopted for the foundation joint, which was confirmed by
measuring the temperature in the grouting gallery A of the Jablanica HPP.
The change in concrete temperature during normal use of the dam is due to seasonal changes in air
and water temperatures in the reservoir.

2.1. AIR TEMPERATURE

Daily variation in air temperature has a significant effect on the temperature of concrete.
Therefore, it is important to determine its mean daily and average annual variation, based on which
15 day’s variation [1] is calculated, which is used as the minimum and maximum value of a sine
function (i.e., by which its amplitude and mean value are determined), by which the time history of
the dam concrete temperature should be determined. To correctly determine the 15 day’s variation
in air temperature, following data are needed:
 average monthly, average monthly maximum and average monthly minimum temperatures,
 average annual air temperature,
 maximum measured air temperature,
 the lowest measured air temperature.,
Since air temperature measurements were performed 3 times a day before the automatic
measurement system was installed, this data are not sufficient to determine the 15 day's variation.
However, from the beginning of 2006 the investor has started to take hourly measurements of the
air temperature, i.e. all required the data for calculating, the values mentioned in the 4 points above
are obtained. Thus, the 15 day's variation of air temperature was obtained by statistical processing
of hourly measurements submitted by investors for the period from 2006 to 2017, and the

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sinusoidal approximation of the change in air temperature is represented by the following general
form of sine function:


Tz  t   A z  sin  t  Fz   2
365 Sz (1)

where: Tz (t) is the air temperature at time t (in days), Az is the amplitude of the function, Fz is the
time shift in the ordinate t that tells how many days the minimum value of the function is shifted
relative to the intersection of the function with the direction t = Sz, 2/365 is the period of the
function and Sz is the mean of the function.
Based on the maximum and minimum 15 day's temperatures for the considered period of 12
years by Gumbel's method of extreme values, the maximum and minimum values of air
temperature for a return period of 50 years are determined.
The time shift of the air temperature sine function for each year, from 1973 to 2017, was
obtained by the best fit of the sine function to the measured mean daily temperatures for each year
considered. The mean value of Cauchy distribution time shift is 74 days (standard deviation 1.78
days). This time shift will be taken to define the extreme synthetic year. 5 and 95, the fractile value
of the adopted distribution is day 62.8 and day 85.2. It can be stated with 90% confidence that the
time shift will move within the interval of  11.2 days relative to its mean, that is, the maximum air
temperature will move  11.2 days compared to 199.8 days (19 July) in the year, therefore it will
occur between day 188.6. and day 211.0.
The statistically determined parameters of the extreme synthetic year air temperature are:
Az = 13,8 C; Sz = 12, 5C; Fz = 74 days; maxTz = 26,3 C and minTz = -1,2 C

Thus, the synthetic function (1) for the extreme year is of the following form (see Figure 3):


Tz  t   13,8  sin  t  74   2
365   12,5 (2)

2.2. RESERVOIR WATER TEMPERATURE

The distribution of water temperature over the reservoir depth depends on many parameters.
It can be seen from the diagrams presented in [2] that it does not have a uniform distribution in all
the considered reservoir cases. The sinusoidal change in water temperature in the reservoir was
obtained by statistical processing of the water temperature measurements from 1969 and from 2012
to 2017. These are the only years in which measurements were taken and are available in the
investor database. Since daily variation in water temperature does not significantly affect the
temperature of concrete, only its annual variation will be considered. Of course, the water
temperature also depends on the depth of the reservoir. Specifically, the 1969 data contain
measurements made every 15 days at 3 reservoir levels: at the bottom (192 m.a.s), at 2/3 of its
height (244 m.a.s.) and at its surface (at 270.5 m.a.s), while in 2012 to 2017 period, hourly
measurements were made at 240 m.a.s. and 250 m.a.s.
On the basis of these data, by statistical processing, the summer and winter temperature
distributions over the depth of reservoir were calculated, for two boundary levels, i.e. for the
minimum working reservoir level (235 m.a.s.) (not shown in this paper) and the maximum working
reservoir level (270.5 m.a.s.) (Fig. 1a).

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Figure 1. a) approximate and b) simplified maximal and minimal water temperature distributions
for reservoir level at 270.5 m.a.s.

Two reference levels were selected for both boundary water levels in the reservoirs, located
in the midpoints of the upper third and lower two thirds of the reservoir levels, and the minimum
and maximum temperatures at these levels were obtained by linear interpolation between the water
temperatures at the measured levels (Figure 1b).
The time shift of the sine distribution of water temperature (also defined by equation 1) was
determined in the same way as the phase shift of air temperature, therefore, it was determined to
the above 3 reservoir levels, at which measurements were made in 1969 (Figure 2a). Since the time
shift of the air temperature in 1969 is the same as the phase shift in the representative year (74
days), it needs no correction.
Time shifts at reference reservoir levels are determined by linear interpolation of time shifts
at the levels at which measurements were made and will have two constant distributions in depth
(Figure 2b):

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Figure 2. a) approximate and b) simplified water temperature time shift distribution for reservoir
level at 270.5 m.a.s.

Therefore, for further analysis, constant distributions of water temperatures and their time
shifts at specific reservoir depths will be adopted, for which values are obtained by interpolation at
the appropriate reference levels. The statistically determined parameters of the water temperature
distribution at the two reference reservoir levels in the synthetic year are:
a) for 270,5 m ≤ h ≤ 244 m → Av1 = 8,9 C; Sv1 = 10, 5 C; Fv1 = 64,7 days; maxTv1 = 19,4 C
and minTv1 = 1,6 C

b) for 244m < h ≤ 192 m → Av2 = 5,3 C; Sv2 = 8,7 C; Fv2 = 59,2 days; maxTv2 = 14,0 C and
minTv2 = 3,4 C.

Thus, the synthetic functions for the extreme/synthetic year will take the following form,
Figure 3:


Tv1  t   8,9  sin  t  64, 7   2
365 
 10,5
(3)
Tv2  t   5,3  sin   t  59, 2   2 365  8, 7

Figure 3 shows that the maximum value of the water temperature change at the upper
reference reservoir level is shifted by 9.2 days relative to the maximum air temperature distribution
value, while same shift for the lower reservoir reference level is 14.7 days. This means that the air
temperature, among other unidentified factors, needs 9.2 days to warm/cool water at the upper
reference level and 14.7 days to warm/cool water at the lower reference level. By this the time
distributions of all temperatures necessary for the calculation of the time dependent concrete
temperatures are obtained.

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Figure 3. Distribution of air and water temperature at the upper and lower reference levels for the
reservoir at 270.5 m.a.s

3. STATIC LOAD COMBINATIONS

According to the recommendations [1] related to the safety assessment of existing dams and
[2] related to the design of new dams, the safety assessment of arch-gravity dams is performed for
the following static usual (SU) and unusual (SUN) load combinations:
SU1 (winter): Minimum concrete temperature + Most likely reservoir level at that time +
Permanent load; SU2 (summer): Maximum concrete temperature + Most likely reservoir level at
that time + Permanent load and SU3 (winter): Reservoir at overflow level + Concrete temperature
at that time + Permanent load.
SUN1 (winter): Maximum reservoir level + Concrete temperature at that time + Permanent
load; SUN2 (Summer): Minimum reservoir level + Concrete temperature at that time + Permanent
load.
Figure 4 shows a statistical analysis of the reservoir water level for the period 1962-2017.
and the expected concrete temperature change to determine the relevant load combinations foe the
safety assessment of the dam. The concrete temperature law in this figure is determined on the
basis of its effect, that is, the displacement of plumb V2 in gallery C, since the most unfavorable
configuration of the concrete temperature will lead to maximum downstream displacement of the
dam in winter and upstream in summer time.

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Figure 4. Reservoir level analysis for the period 1962-2017, expected concrete temperature
change and relevant load combinations

The maximum displacement of plumb V2 for the representative year occur on the day 242
(30 August) and may occur at an interval of  11,2 days relative to that day, while the minimum
displacements of same plumb can occur at an interval of  11,2 days compared to day 51 (February
20). These considerations are included in determining the relevant reservoir water levels for SU
and SUN load combinations, Figure 4. The maximum and minimum concrete temperature are
lagging by 42,3 and 34,2 days respectively, behind the maximum and minimum air temperature
and the corresponding reservoir water temperatures.

4. CONCLUSIONS

After sensitivity studies and calibration of the most sensitive parameters and extensive
laboratory investigations [3] [4], all mechanical and thermal properties of the model (concrete dam
and rock mass) necessary for conducting the dam safety assessment for the above load
combinations in the fully synthetic extreme year were determined. Of course, an assessment was
also made of the dynamic load combinations that are not the subject of this paper (DU1 - design
earthquake, and DE1 – most credible earthquake, Figure 4).
The final distribution of external time dependent temperatures, necessary for conducting the
thermo-stress analysis of the dam in the DIANA application, in the calibration year, is shown in
Figure 5.

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Figure 5. External temperatures on the boundary elements of the Jablanica HPP model

LITERATURE

[1] FERC Division of Dam Safety and Inspections: "Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of
Hydropower; Arch Dams", Washington, DC 20426, 1999
[2] U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: "Arch Dam Design", Washington, DC 20314-1000, 1994
[3] Hadrović A, Partovi M, Selimotić M: "Safety Assessment of an Arch-Gravity Dam with a Horizontal
Crack", ICOLD, International Symposium on “Appropriate technology to ensure proper
Development, Operation and Maintenance of Dams in Developing Countries”, Johannesburg, South
Africa, 18 May 2016, pp 2b-55-64
[4] Hadrović A, Selimotić M, Zalihić S: "Prilagođavanje parametara modela Brane Jablanica", GNP,
Žabljak, 2016

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