Impact of climate shifts on the future

distribution of pollinator dependent

crops across East Africa

Africa Institute for Mathematical

Science(AIMS)
AND
International Center for Tropical
Agriculture(CIAT)

Author: Supervisors:
MUHAWENIMANA Frederic Rosita Yecgo
Kagabo Desire

June 2021
Contents
1 Introduction 1

2 Literature Review 2
2.1 Overview of Pollinators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2.1.1 Crop pollination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2.2 Bees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.3 IMPORTANCE OF BEES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.4 BENEFIT FOR FOOD SECURITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3 Research Methodology 6
3.1 Study area description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1.1 Relief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1.2 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1.3 Crops production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.2 Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.3 Materials and methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.3.1 Regression analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.3.2 Climate analogues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

4 Results 9

5 Conclusion 10

A This is an appendix 12
List of Figures
1 The examples of insect pollinators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
List of Tables
1 Introduction
Many years ago, a decline in both the wild and management of pollinators has been
observed in countries around the world. The disease of species is only a few of
the factors attributed to the declines, but there is still much to be learned regard-
ing current pollinator Agriculture [1]. The African Pollinator Initiative (API) is the
regional arm of an international effort for the conservation and protection of pollina-
tors in Africa. This initiative, as with the International Pollinators Initiative, is not
owned by anyone organization; it is made up of contributions from many actors to
overall pollinator conservation and sustainable use. Kenya is one of the countries in
East Africa, among other countries in Africa, have ongoing research and pollinator-
focused activities taking place. Educating the public and key stakeholders about
the importance of this field is a component of the API. The mutuality between the
plant and animals is one of the most important ecosystem services for maintaining
crop production [2]. A pollinator is a living organism that transfers pollen to the
stigma of a flower [3]. This can take place within the same flower, within flowers of
the same plant, or among flowers in a given location. This occurs as a result of an
animal foraging for nectar or pollen among flowers. Insects, birds, and bats are the
most commonly observed animals involved in pollination.
A crop’s pollinator dependence differs between species, including between crops
and crop varieties. Some plants must be cross-pollinated, others do not need pol-
linators but produce better fruit and seed if pollinated, and a number are strictly
self-pollinated. Further, plants differ in their pollinator-type requirements; some
require specific pollinators while others are pollinated by a variety of visitors, and
many are pollinated by wind. Effective pollinators of the same crop may vary from
one location to another. Specific knowledge on pollinator dependence and types is
important for agriculture and conservation of biodiversity.
The project focused on plant-pollinator interactions that can be affected by
changes in climatic conditions in suitable ways. The impacts of climate change
data on crop pollination are still limited, and no investigation has yet addressed
this issue. This project provides a review of the literature on crop pollination, with
a focus on the impact of climate change on pollinators important for East Africa
crop production; present an overview of pollinators dependent crops on temperature,
rainfall and to identify the data needs and methods to answer questions related to
the impact of climate change on pollination, and make recommendations on the
management of pollinators, cultivators and crop production the recording and man-
agement of pollinator interactions data.

1
2 Literature Review
2.1 Overview of Pollinators
Pollinators have a diverse group of animals influenced by insects, especially bees,
but also include some of the other species of flies, wasps, butterflies, moths, beetles,
weevils, ants, midges, bats, birds, primates, marsupials, rodents, and reptiles [4].
Many bees’ species are pollinators, a smaller proportion of species within the other
taxonomy unit are pollinators. Around Ninety percent of the leading types of crops
in the world are visited by bees and around Thirty percent by flies, while each of
the other biological species visits less than 6 percent of the crop types [5].

(a) Honey bees (b) Butterfly

(c) St ingress bees (d) Butterfly

Figure 1: The examples of insect pollinators

Pollinators. Clockwise from top left: A honeybee collecting pollen; a butterfly

collecting nectar; and a Solitary Bee foraging [2].
Who are pollinators? Birds, bats, butterflies, moths, flies, beetles, small mam-
mals, and most importantly, bees are pollinators. Recent estimates show that about
88 of all flowering plants and 35 of the global plant-based food supply rely on polli-
nators to be successful. What plants rely on bee pollination? As honey bees gather
pollen and nectar for their survival, they pollinate crops such as coffee, beans, and
watermelon. Some crops, including watermelon and soybeans, are high percent de-
pendent on honey bee’s pollination, sunflower also depends entirely on the honey
bees for pollination on bloom time [6]. Interactions between plants and pollinators

2
like bees are essential for plant reproduction, food production, improve food quality,
and products. Reports indicate that increased food production has been achieved
in more than 75% of food crops [7].
Many of the country’s crops including the East Africa countries would not exist
without the honey bees at bloom time. Crop production and quality would greatly be
reduced without honey bee’s pollination. Recently, the pollinator surveys conducted
in Uganda in 26 different sites show that more species of bees, butterfly and fly
contribute to the high value of annual economic base to pollinating services derived
to crops production [8] Three out of 4 crops around the world, which produce fruits or
seeds for human consumption depend on pollinators[9]. Changing climate is another
issue for honey bees and other pollinators. The warming of the earth’s climate has
caused the plant species to bloom an average of a half-day earlier each year (Jump,
2005). As a result, some plants don’t pollinate and the bees are left hungry. Both
bees and plants hone in on specific weather cues, like snow melt or air temperature,
to let them know when spring has sprung. If weather patterns and temperatures
shift beyond the norm, plants and bees may become out of sync, as a result of bees
emerging long after the plants are ready to be pollinated. Bees are a prior insect
that makes excellent pollinators because most of their life is spent collecting pollen
since it is the source of protein that they feed to their developing springs and many
of the plants require this kind of pollen distribution known as cross-production to
produce seeds or fruits. We consider the crops to be pollinator-dependent if animal
pollination is required to maximize the production of the fruits or seeds consumed by
humans whereas the non-dependent crops are those that are either pollinated wind
or cultivated for generative pats leaves, stems, tubers. Health and food security
depend on pollinators Pollinators contribute to the security of crops by pollinating
many of the fruits and vegetables we consume.

2.1.1 Crop pollination

Pollination takes place when pollen is transferred from the male part of a flower
(the anthers) where pollen is produced, to the female part (the stigma) of an-
other flower of the same species, where the pollen germinates. Pollinators (like
bees, wasps, moths, bats) transport pollen between flowers, ensuring that flowers
produce seeds and fruits. Many crops cultivated in East Africa require pollina-
tion. Common crops that benefit from pollination include avocado, coffee, cow
peas, eggplant, mangoes, pigeon peas, pumpkins, and tomatoes. Indeed, stud-
ies have shown that 75% of all crop species, and over 80Crops like passion fruit,
cocoa, strawberries, eggplant, watermelon, cucumber, and pumpkin are all de-
pendent on pollinators. For other crops, like coffee, avocado, mango and run-
ner beans, pollinators contribute to increased yields and quality. For trees, and
plants in natural habitats, the contribution of pollination to ensuring habitats
regenerate with healthy seeds and fruits is yet to be measured or fully under-
stood. Studies have estimated that pollination services provided by wild insects
globally are Sunflower field at Kattegat, Kenya. A Handbook of Pollinator Di-
versity and Conservation in East Africa 43 worth over €150 billion (or over US
200billion).IntheBaringoregionof Kenyaalone, watermelonsworthKES900million(U S9
million) are produced. All of these watermelons are the result of pollination by wild

3
insects, primarily bees.

2.2 Bees
Bees are insects. Together with ants and wasps they belong in the insect group
hymenoptera. In globally, there are over 20000 species of bees. Wild bees pollinate
about two-third of the vegetables and fruits grown in East Africa and are one of the
most important groups of pollinators for all flowering plant in the world. In Africa
there are more wild varieties of honey bees than anywhere else in the world.
Bees in East Africa include, carpenter bees, sting less bees, longhorn bees and
honey bees. All of these species of bees vary from each other physically being to
different sizes and shapes and in their behavior. Some of bee’s nest in tree hollows,
others build their nests underground, some will visit a variety of flower to feed and
feed from different families of flowers, and many of these bees are active mostly of
day, while other many active in the early morning or evening.
In East Africa, there are so many bee’s families such as: Wild bees known as
solitary, through some like honey bees and sting less bees are social. Most of those
bees collect the pollen and nectar from flowers. The others bees commonly found in
East Africa are the leaf cutter bees, which use leaves to line their nest and holistic
bees, which is the large diverse family of bees. In Kenya, there are two different
species of honey bees: Common honey bees which are more familiar orange and black
colored bee is typically seen in grassland, bush, coastal and forest areas. Mountain
honey bees: This dark, chocolate, colored honey bees that is adapted to the high
altitude areas of Mount Kenya and Mount Elgon where it can be found. Honey bees
pollinate many crops, herbs, wild flowers and trees. Sting less bees; Like honey
bees, sting less bees are social, and live in the colonies, each having queen and works.
They are smaller than honey bees, and live in hollow trees, rocks and even terminate
mounds. In Africa, here are places with traditional of keeping stingless bees but the
knowledge is not widespread. Stingless bees are very important pollinators as thy
rely entirely on flowers for nectar and pollen to feed their larvae. They pollinate
many forest and dryland plants of mango and avocado carpenter bees, they are bees
that are familiar and gardens to farmers as the bees that fly noisily around buildings
and farms in the morning. Carpenter bees include the largest bees in East Africa.
They play important role in pollination for legumes that require tripping of other
flowers and others plant require buzz pollinators such as orchids, passion fruit and
silundum sp.

2.3 IMPORTANCE OF BEES

2.4 BENEFIT FOR FOOD SECURITY
At least three quarters of the world’s crops benefit from animal pollination (Aizen,
2009). These crops produce bigger and higher quality yields when healthy pollinator
communities are present (Saul A and Harder, Lawrence D, 2011). Many pollinator
dependent crops, (e.g. many of our fruits, vegetable and nuts) are packed full of
vitamins and minerals which are essential for healthy human diets (Janick, Jules and
Paull, Robert E, 2008). It is also often overlooked that even some of the feed grown

4
for livestock (e.g. clover, alfalfa) depend, at least in part, on animal pollination
(Heinrich, Bernd, 1975).

5
3 Research Methodology
3.1 Study area description
East of Africa is the eastern sub-region of the African continent, In the United
Nations Statistics Division scheme of geographic regions, 19 countries make up East
Africa.

1. Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan are members
of the East African Community (EAC).

2. Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the disputed Somaliland and collec-
tively known as the Horn of Africa. The area is the easternmost projection of
the African continent.

3. Comoros, Mauritius, and Seychelles and small island nations in the Indian
Ocean.

4. Reunion and Mayotte and French overseas territories also in the Indian Ocean.

5. Mozambique and Madagascar and often considered part of Southern Africa,

on the eastern side of the sub-continent. Madagascar has close cultural ties to
Southeast Asia and the islands of the Indian Ocean.

6. Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and often also included in Southern Africa,
and formerly constituted the Central African Federation (also known histori-
cally as the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland).

7. South Sudan and Sudan collectively part of the Nile Valley Situated in the
north-eastern portion of the continent, Sudan is also included in Northern
Africa.. Also members of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern
Africa (COMESA) free trade area.

3.1.1 Relief
East Africa is a region that begins in Tanzania in the south and extends north
through the great grasslands and scrub forest of the savannas of Kenya and Uganda
and then across the highlands of Ethiopia, including the Great Rift Valley. The
region also comprises the countries of Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, which are lo-
cated in the African Transition Zone between North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Rwanda and Burundi are physically in East Africa but are covered in the lesson
about Central Africa because of their border activities with the Congo. The world’s
second-largest lake by surface area is Lake Victoria, which borders Uganda, Tan-
zania, and Kenya. (Lake Superior, on the border between the United States and
Canada, is considered the lake with the largest surface area.) Lake Victoria provides
fish and fresh water for millions of people in the surrounding region. The White Nile
starts at Lake Victoria and flows north to the city of Khartoum in Sudan, where it
converges with the Blue Nile to become the Nile River. The source of the Blue Nile
is Lake Tana in the highlands of Ethiopia.

6
3.1.2 Climate
The sub region of East Africa lies between 21° north latitudes and 11° south latitudes.
The Tropic of Cancer crosses southern Egypt near its border with the Sudan. With
eight countries (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, the Sudan, Uganda
and the United Republic of Tanzania), East Africa covers a land area of 5.9 million
square kilometers. The Sudan, with a land area of 2.4 million square kilometers, is
the largest country in Africa. The sub region is bordered by the Red Sea and the
Indian Ocean on the east. East Africa is a relatively dry area strongly influenced by
the Sahara Desert. Desert covers more than 1 million square kilometers, including all
of the northern Sudan. The climate is characterized by high temperatures and low
precipitation (less than 200 mm). Very arid and semi-arid climates are also found
in Somalia, Djibouti and along the coast of Eritrea, with annual rainfall ranging
between 400 and 750 mm. Most of Ethiopia and the mountains of Kenya have
montane climates with higher rainfall and lower temperatures. Uganda and the
coast of the United Republic of Tanzania are mostly characterized by a very humid
climate with high temperatures and a very short dry season. The rest of Tanzania,
Kenya and Uganda have typical tropical climates with a long dry season. Rwanda is
located in a tropical temperate climate due to its high altitude. The average annual
temperature ranges between 16°C and 20°C, without significant variations. Rainfall
is abundant although it has some irregularities.

3.1.3 Crops production

Eastern Africa (EA) region characterized by low agricultural productivity and thus
food insecurity. Contributing factors such as high populations, small land sizes,
environmental degradation; Poor marketing structures; Inadequate access to infor-
mation Poor physical and institutional infrastructure and Inappropriate government
policies have held back the sustainable development of rural areas. The region in-
cludes a diversity of farming systems, from the humid highlands of Uganda, the
coastal areas on Tanzania and Kenya to the drylands of Sudan and Ethiopia. Crop-
ping systems of Eastern Africa including maize and sorghum are common as well
as extensive grazing and intensive dairy and vegetable, fruits, oils seed, nuts, coffee
tea production and others.

3.2 Data Sources

Temperature and Precipitation data obtained from (METHEOLOGICAL DATA
East Africa), crop production (yield, area harvested) data obtained from the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) and the species
data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-
STAT).

3.3 Materials and methods

In this study, we analysed the crops for which we have already determined the pol-
linator dependency (in the pollinators dependency table), and the main pollinators

7
and for which we have the values of annual production of main crops in East Africa.
We assessed the impact of climate shifts on crop pollinators using the Maximum
Entropy algorithm (Maxent), as major technique that determines potential areas of
species occurrences and forecasts their future distribution. MaxEnt was selected as
the advantages of using presence-only data and performing well with data that are
not gives us full information, small sample sizes. The environmental variables to
recognize any changes in their distribution Maxent will be used.

3.3.1 Regression analysis

Regression analysis was attempted to demonstrate the degree to which one or more
variables potentially promote positive or negative change in another variable. Thus,
Regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between more than one
variables. The example we can say, Simple regression can be used to model interac-
tion between crops and insect’s pollinators. Whereas multiple regression was used
to help us to develop a model between common area of crops and insect’ pollinators
with different environmental variables.

3.3.2 Climate analogues

Climate analogue technique will help us to detect areas where the climate today is
similar to the future projected climate of another area. Climate analogue can help
us to predict through backward and forward. This is used to adapt the impact of
climate change on a species. The climate analogue tool announced through climate
change and food security (CCAFS) was used to identify analogous climates across
space and time. The CCAFS model was employed to spatially locate analogue
sites. This means that, where will be common suitable area of crops and pollinators
interaction of East Africa Countries based on the reliability.

8
4 Results

9
5 Conclusion

10
References
[1] Dave Goulson, Elizabeth Nicholls, Cristina Botías, and Ellen L Rotheray. Bee
declines driven by combined stress from parasites, pesticides, and lack of flowers.
Science, 347(6229), 2015.

[2] M Daphne. Pollinators in Africa: Understanding is the first step to protecting.

2011.

[3] Tia-Lynn Ashman, Conchita Alonso, Victor Parra-Tabla, and Gerardo Arceo-
Gómez. Pollen on stigmas as proxies of pollinator competition and facilitation:
complexities, caveats and future directions. Annals of botany, 125(7):1003–1012,
2020.

[4] Simon G Potts, Hien T Ngo, Jacobus C Biesmeijer, Thomas D Breeze, Lynn V
Dicks, Lucas A Garibaldi, Rosemary Hill, Josef Settele, and Adam Vanbergen.
The assessment report of the intergovernmental science-policy platform on bio-
diversity and ecosystem services on pollinators, pollination and food production.
2016.

[5] Livio Comba, Sarah A Corbet, A Barron, A Bird, S Collinge, N Miyazaki, and
M Powell. Garden flowers: insect visits and the floral reward of horticulturally-
modified variants. Annals of Botany, 83(1):73–86, 1999.

[6] Clara I Nicholls and Miguel A Altieri. Plant biodiversity enhances bees and
other insect pollinators in agroecosystems. a review. Agronomy for Sustainable
development, 33(2):257–274, 2013.

[7] Sukumar Chakraborty and Adrian C Newton. Climate change, plant diseases
and food security: an overview. Plant pathology, 60(1):2–14, 2011.

[8] Artur Santos, Maria Rosário Fernandes, Francisca C Aguiar, Manuela R Branco,
and M Teresa Ferreira. Effects of riverine landscape changes on pollination
services: A case study on the river minho, portugal. Ecological Indicators, 89:
656–666, 2018.

[9] Alexandra-Maria Klein, Bernard E Vaissiere, James H Cane, Ingolf Steffan-

Dewenter, Saul A Cunningham, Claire Kremen, and Teja Tscharntke. Impor-
tance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops. Proceedings of the
royal society B: biological sciences, 274(1608):303–313, 2007.

11
A This is an appendix

12