CONTROL MEASSURE OF CORONA VIRUS IN THE POPULATION.

Dotia Modibo Jamiu.

Department of Physics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto.

ABSTRACT
This research was single handed design by a graduate student of Usmanu
Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Nigeria, Physics department with the aim to point
out all the possible predictions associates with Corona using Mathematical
Modelling of the disease in the population. This paper show that, at the disease free
equilibrium E0 this model do not satisfy locally and globally asymptomatic stage,
2. THE MODEL VARIABLE AND PARAMETERS.
The model variable and the parameters involve in the investigation can be
explained as follows:
Variable Description:
S(t) Numbers of Susceptible at time t.
E(t) Numbers of an exposed (Asymptomatic) at time t.
Ie(t) Numbers of educated infected (Symptomatic) at time t.
Iu(t) Numbers of uneducated infected (Symptomatic) at time t.
Q(t) Numbers of infected that are quarantined at any time t.
R(t) Numbers of infected that have recovered of the disease at any time t.
Parameters Description:
π: Fertility rate or Natural birth rates.
μ: Mortality rate or Natural death rates.
χ: Death due to the disease.
β: incidence rates or force of infection.
γ: Rate at which exposed fall under educated category.
θ: Rate at which exposed fall under non educated category.
η: Rate at which non educated infected are getting quarantine of the disease.
λ: Rate at which educated infected are getting quarantine of the disease.
ε: Rate of recovery.
φ: Rate at which the recovery population are flowing back to the Susceptible.
Assumption:
 There is not immigrant and emigrants through out the period of pandemic.
 It takes about two weeks (14 days) for an Exposed compartment (E) to
transform to educated infected (Ie) and Non educated infected (Iu).
 The recruitment from the S-class into the E-class is through contact from
the population of infectious.
 The recruitment R-class from the I-class at the rate φ.
 The recruitment in to Iu-class from the E-class is at the rate γ.
 The recruitment in to Ie-class from the E-class is at the rate θ.
 The recruitment in to quarantine Q-class from the Iu and Ie is at the rate of γ
and θ respectively.
 Rate of recovery ε is equal to rate of recovery moving in to a Susceptible
compartment φ.

2.2. THE MODEL DISCRIPTION.

This model uses the deterministic endemic model with these populations
divided in to six compartment as: susceptible-S, expose-E, educate infected-I e,
Non educated infected-Iu, Qurantine-Q, and the Recorvery-R of the population.
Susceptible class of the population are those population that are yet to be
infected, this can be regarded as global population or the population of the a
certain geographical region, and the Exposed class of the population are those
population that are infected by the diseases but yet to show the symptoms.
But, the infected class of the disease are the Symptomatic class of the disease
which is subdivided in to two class as: educated infected non educated
infected, also, the quarantine and Recorvery class can be respectively define as
the population that are under treatment and those that have been recovered
of the disease.
The following dynamic describe SEIuIeQR framework and will be useful in the
formulation of the model.
3. THE MODEL EQUATIONS.
The following are the equation for every division of the population in to six
compartments, as obtained from the flow diagram.
 dS ( t )
=π + φR−[ β ( η i u+ λ I e +εQ ) + μ ] S (1 )
dt
dE
=β ( η I u + λI e +εQ )−( γ +θ+ μ ) E ( 2 )
dt
d Iu
=γE−( η+ μ + χ ) I u ( 3 )
dt
d Ie
=θE−( λ+ μ + χ ) I e ( 4 )
dt
dQ
=η I u + λ I e −( ε+ μ + χ ) Q ( 5 )
dt
dR ( t )
=εQ− ( φ+ μ ) R ( 6 )
dt

Such that, Population P is;

P ( t ) =S ( t ) + E ( t )+ I u ( t ) + I e ( t )+ Q ( t ) + R ( t ) ( 7 )

dP ( t ) dS ( t ) dE ( t ) d I u ( t ) d I e ( t ) dQ ( t ) dR ( t )
= + + + + + ( 8)
dt dt dt dt dt dt dt

dP ( t )
=π−μP−( I u+ I e +Q ) χ (9)
dt

The incidence rate or force of infection at time t is denoted by β at any time t, is

given by:

( θ+ γ ) E+η I u+ λ I e
β (t )= (10)
P

THE MODEL EQUATIONS IN PROPORTION.

To simplify the model, we normalize the equation by transforming the equation
into proportion. The system of a normalize equation tends to bring that value of the
six compartment ranging from 0-1.
By dividing the equation 7 all through by the population P,
Then;
s+e +i u+ i e +q+ r=1(11)

Such that;
dP ( t ) ds de d i u d i e dq dr
= + + + + + (12)
dt dt dt dt dt dt dt

Where;
S E Iu Ie Q R
s= ,e= ,i u= , i e= , q= ,r = ( 13 )
P P P P P P

Considering normalizing the equation the following equations are considered as;
ds 1 dS (t ) dP ( t )
=
dt P dt [ −s
dt
( 14 ) ]
By putting equation (1) and (9) into equation (14) it is obtained that;
ds π
= ( 1−s )+ φr−β ( η iu P+ λ i e P+ εqP ) s + ( i u+ i e +q ) xs ( 15 )
dt P

Also;
de 1 dE dP
=
dt p dt
+e[dt
( 16 ) ]
By substituting equation (2) and (9) into equation (16), then;
de πe
=β ( η i u P+ λ i e P+ εqP ) s− ( γ +θ ) e− + ( i u+ i e +q ) xe ( 17 )
dt P

Similarly ;
d i u 1 d I u iu dP
=
dt p dt [ −
dt
( 18 ) ]
d iu π iu
=γe −( η+ χ ) i u− + ( i u +i e + q ) x i u ( 19 )
dt P
d ie π ie
=θe− ( λ+ χ ) i e − + ( i u+i e +q ) x i e ( 20 )
dt P
dq πq
=η i u + λ i e −( ε + χ ) q− + ( iu +i e + q ) xq ( 21 )
dt P
dr πr
=εq−φr− + ( i u +i e +q ) xr ( 22 )
dt P
Equation (15), (17), (19), (20), (21), and (22) show the proportion equation, which describe the
pandemics in the population.

EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS AT THE DISEASE FREE

EQUILIBRIUM (E0) OF SEIuIeQR OF THE MODEL.
At the disease free equilibrium E=I u=Ie=Q=R=0. The equation (15) at the disease free becomes;

π
0= ( 1−s )
P
s=1
There exist a unique trivial solution at the disease free equilibrium as shown above

COMPUTATION OF BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER (R0)

OF THE MODEL.
To find the basic reproduction number the next generation matrix is needed to obtain, this next general
matrix as two major components of order

and