Jul 5, 2021

TraderTechs
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Technical Comment: Market interpretation of NFP was that on balance, the Fed’s
“patient” approach is correct. Hence, the S&P 500 gained 0.75% on Friday, while VIX declined to 15.07.
Yields bull-steepened. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ impasse remained and talks will resume today. Markets
may tread water given the US’s Independence Day holiday. Keep an eye on the Covid-19 Delta variant
as the summer progresses.

FX Relative Strength Grid

Comment: The strongest trends are in CHF, JPY and CAD. The strongest
momentum was seen Friday on EUR (bearish), CAD (bearish).
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FX Volatility Metrics

Relative ATR Grid

Comment: Weekly ATR levels have risen recently, fuelled by the higher
volatility in the US Dollar. However, only US Dollar volatility is acceptable,
with dull readings elsewhere and outright volatility contractions in
selected CHF pairs and NZD pairs, as well as EURGBP.

Relative Bollinger Band Width Grid

Comment: Weekly Bandwidth highlights general low volatility conditions,

with some expansion only in CAD and USD pairs.

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EUR/USD – Bullish Divergence at Lows

This Week’s Call: Bullish Today’s Call: Bullish

Today’s Call: Today’s Today’s Call: Today’s Call:
COMMENT Call: PRICE PRESSURE
Prices posted a fresh 12-wk low last week, coming close to 1.1800
via a sequence of 5 lower daily highs & lows. However, prices posted
a bullish hammer on Friday alongside a bullish divergence in
momentum at the daily level. As such, despite the trend of lower
daily highs & lows remains intact, bearish signals seem extended and
pullbacks are to be expected. Selling into a rally towards 1.1927 may
be a better play this week.

Little action is expected today with the US away on holiday.

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USD/JPY – Corrective Decline Starts

This Week’s Call: Bearish Today’s Call: Bearish

Today’s Call: Today’s Today’s Call: Today’s Call:
COMMENT PRICE PRESSURE
rd Call:
Prices posted the 3 higher weekly high & low in a row last week,
reaching the March 2020 top at 111.70. However, sellers returned
to market from the highs, prices posting a bearish engulfing at the
daily level on Friday. As such, signals are initially pointing lower
this week and sellers will be targeting 110.60 initially.

Little action is expected today with the US away on holiday.

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GBP/USD – Bullish Divergence from 11 WK Lows

This Week’s Call: Bullish Today’s Call: Bullish

Today’s Call: Today’s Today’s Call:
COMMENT PRICE PRESSURE
Call:
Prices posted fresh 11-wk lows last week at 1.3731, in proximity
to the Apr 16th low at 1.3715. However, buyers returned to
market from the lows, prices posting a bullish engulfing on Friday
alongside a bullish divergence in momentum. As such, bearish
signals have weakened and a pullback is to be expected in the
short-term, targeting 1.3879 or even 1.3967.

Little action is expected today with the US away on holiday.

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AUD/USD – Bullish Divergence at Lows

This Week’s Call: Bullish Today’s Call: Bullish

Today’s Call: Today’s Today’s Call: Today’s Call:
COMMENT PRICE PRESSURE
Call:
Prices posted fresh lows for 2021 at .7445 last week, but buyers
returned from close to the Dec 21st low alongside a bullish
divergence in momentum, prices posting a bullish engulfing at the
daily level. As such, bearish signals have weakened and a pullback is
to be expected in the short-term, targeting .7582 initially.

Little action is expected today with the US away on holiday.

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USD/CAD – Sellers Return from June Top

This Week’s Call: Bearish Today’s Call: Bearish

Today’s Call: Today’s Today’s Call:
COMMENT PRICE PRESSURE
Last week’s bullish call was
Call:
initially proven correct, with buyers
returning to market from close to 1.2300, prices coming close to the
June 18th close at 1.2464. However, sellers returned on Friday, prices
declining over 1 ¼ Big Fig. The resulting “inside week” leaves signals
more mixed but on balance there is a slight bearish bias after Friday’s
performance.

Little action is expected today with the US away on holiday.

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