Design of Experiments

DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS
(IE-472)
(Fall Semester 2020)
Course Instructor Prof. Misbah Ullah

Assistant Teacher Engr. Muhammad Nauman
Department of Industrial Engineering

University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar
Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing or significance testing is a
method for testing a claim or hypothesis about a
parameter in a population, using data measured in a
sample.
• In this method, we test some hypothesis by

determining the likelihood that a sample statistic
could have been selected, if the hypothesis
regarding the population parameter were true.

Null Hypothesis
• Null Hypothesis states that there is no difference between a

parameter and a specific value, or that there is no
difference between two parameters.
• It is denoted by 𝐻0 .
• If a population mean is equal to hypothesized mean then

Null Hypothesis can be written as
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Alternative Hypothesis
• Alternative Hypothesis states that there is existence of a

difference between a parameter and a specific value, or
states that there is a difference between two parameters.
• It is denoted by 𝐻1 or 𝐻𝛼 .

If Null Hypothesis is given as
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0
Then Alternative Hypothesis can be written as
𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 Two-Tailed Test
𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0 Right-Tailed Test
𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 Left-Tailed Test

Keywords help to indicate what the null and/ or alternative
hypothesis should be.

• Null Hypothesis will be rejected in favor of the
Alternative Hypothesis only if sample evidence
suggests that H0 is false. If the sample does not
strongly contradict H0, we will continue to believe
in the plausibility of the null hypothesis.
• The two possible conclusions from a hypothesis testing

analysis are then reject H0 or fail to reject H0.

Significance Level is the maximum probability of
committing a Type I error. This probability is symbolized by
α.
𝑷 𝑻𝒚𝒑𝒆 𝑰 𝑬𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 𝑯𝟎 𝒊𝒔 𝒕𝒓𝒖𝒆) = α
𝟏 − 𝜶 is the confidence interval in which the null

hypothesis will exist when it is true.
Critical/Rejection Region is the range of values for the test

value that indicate a significant difference and that the null
hypothesis should be rejected.
Non-Critical/Non-Rejection Region is the range of values

for the test value that indicates the difference was probably
due to chance and that the null hypothesis should not be
rejected.

Critical Value (CV) separates the critical region from the
non-critical region, i.e. when we should reject H0 from when
we should not reject H0.
• The location of the critical value depends on the

inequality sign of the alternative hypothesis.
• Depending on the distribution of the test value, you

will use different tables to find the critical value.

Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Type I Error: consists of rejecting the null hypothesis H0

when it is true.
Type II Error: involves not rejecting H0 when H0 is false.

Example

Methods used in Hypothesis Testing
1. Traditional Method
2. P-value Method
3. Confidence Interval Method

Traditional Method

Steps to follow:
1. State the hypotheses and identify the claim.
2. Find the critical value(s) from the appropriate table.
3. Compute the test value.
4. Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.
5. Summarize the results.

Example
Calculating test statistic:
If numerical value of test statistic

or if . These boundaries
of the critical region are shown on the reference
distribution (t with 18 degrees of freedom in Fig. 2-10
(next Slide).
Because,
Null Hypothesis we would reject H0 and conclude that
Alternative Hypothesis the mean tension bond strengths of the
Degree of Freedom: two formulations of Portland cement
mortar are different
Confidence Interval:
Calculating Estimate:

P-value Method

• A P-value is the probability of obtaining a sample
outcome, given that the value stated in the null hypothesis
is true.
• The P-value for obtaining a sample outcome is compared

to the level of significance.
1. P-value ≤ α → reject H0 at level α
2. P-value > α → Do not reject H0 at level α

Steps to follow:
1. State null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Choose an appropriate test statistic.
3. Compute the P-value based on the computed value of

the test statistic.
4. Use judgement based on the P-value and knowledge of

the scientific system.

One-Tailed Test: indicated that the null
hypothesis should be rejected when the test
value is in the critical region on one side
• Left Tailed Test: when the critical

region is on the left side of the
distribution of the test value.
• Right-Tailed Test: when the critical

region is on the right side of the
distribution of the test value.
Two-Tailed Test: indicates that the null

hypothesis should be rejected when the test
value is in either of two critical regions on
either side of the distribution of the test
value.
Two Tailed Test @ 5% Significance Level

Acceptance and Rejection regions in case of a Two Tailed Test:
Acceptance and Rejection regions Suitable When 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

in case of a Two Tailed Test. 𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0
Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region Rejection Region/

Significance Level Significance Level
(α = 0.025 or 2.5%
or Confidence Level (α = 0.025 or 2.5%
1 − 𝛼 = 95%
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Left Tailed Test @ 5% Significance Level

Acceptance and Rejection regions in case of a Left Tailed Test:

in case of a Left Tailed Test. 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0
Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region

Significance Level
(α = 0.05 or 5%
or Confidence Level
1 − 𝛼 = 95%
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Right Tailed Test @ 5% Significance Level

Acceptance and Rejection regions in case of a Right Tailed Test:

in case of a Right Tailed Test. 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0
Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region

Significance Level
(α = 0.05 or 5%
or Confidence Level
1 − 𝛼 = 95%
𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Example
In example concerning the mean grade point average, suppose

that our random sample of 𝑛 = 15 students majoring in
mathematics yields a test statistic 𝑡 ∗ equaling 2.5. Since 𝑛 =
15, our test statistic 𝑡 ∗ has 𝑛 − 1 = 14 degrees of freedom.
Also, suppose we set our significance level 𝛼 at 0.05, so that
we have only a 5% chance of making a Type I error.

Right Tailed
The P-value for conducting the right-tailed test 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 =
3 versus 𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 3 is the probability that we would
observe a test statistic greater than 𝑡 ∗ = 2.5 if the
population mean 𝜇 really were 3. Recall that probability
equals the area under the probability curve. The P-value is Right Tailed
therefore the area under a 𝑡𝑛−1 = 𝑡14 curve and to the right
of the test statistic 𝑡 ∗ = 2.5 . It can be shown using
statistical software that the P-value is 0.0127. The graph
depicts this visually.
Left Tailed
The P-value for conducting the left-tailed test 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 3
versus 𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 3 is the probability that we would observe
a test statistic less than 𝑡 ∗ = −2.5 if the population mean 𝜇
really were 3. The P-value is therefore the area under a
𝑡𝑛−1 = 𝑡14 curve and to the left of the test statistic 𝑡 ∗ =
Left Tailed
− 2.5. It can be shown using statistical software that the P-
value is 0.0127. The graph depicts this visually.
Two Tailed
The P-value for conducting the two-tailed test 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 3
versus 𝐻1 : 𝜇 ≠ 3 is the probability that we would observe
a test statistic less than −2.5 or greater than 2.5 if the
population mean 𝜇 really were 3. That is, the two-tailed
test requires taking into account the possibility that the test
statistic could fall into either tail (and hence the name
"two-tailed" test). The P-value is therefore the area under a
𝑡𝑛−1 = 𝑡14 curve to the left of −2.5 and to the right of the Two Tailed
2.5. It can be shown using statistical software that the P-
value is 0.0127 + 0.0127, or 0.0254. The graph depicts
this visually.
Right Tailed
Distribution Plot
T, DF=14
Density
Left Tailed
Distribution Plot
T, DF=14
Density
Two Tailed
Distribution Plot
T, DF=14
Density
Confidence Interval Method
(CI)

Confidence Interval
• The interval limits within which the value of the parameter

or parameters in question would be expected to lie are
called Confidence Intervals.
• To define the confidence interval, suppose that θ is an

unknown parameter. To obtain an interval estimate of θ,
we need to find two statistics L and U such that the
probability statement
𝑷 𝑳≤𝜽≤𝑼 =𝟏−𝜶
is true.

The interval
𝑳≤𝜽≤𝑼
is called a 𝟏𝟎𝟎(𝟏 − 𝜶) percent confidence interval for the

parameter θ.
• The statistics L is called the Lower Confidence Limit and

U is called the Upper Confidence Limit.
• 𝟏 − 𝜶 is called the Confidence Coefficient.

• This is illustrated in figure, where the vertical line cuts the
measurement axis at the true (but unknown) value of µ.
• Note: µ is a constant and sample mean is a random
variable.

Mean Confidence Intervals

Variance Confidence Intervals

Z-Test

Test Condition Test Statistics
• Population normal and infinite. 𝑿 − 𝝁𝑯𝟎

𝒁= 𝝈
𝒑
• ൘
Sample size large or small. 𝒏
• Population variance is known.
• H1 may be one-sided or two-sided.
Z-Test for testing means

• Population normal and finite. 𝑿 − 𝝁𝑯𝟎

𝒁= 𝝈
𝒑
൘ × [ (𝑵 − 𝒏)Τ(𝑵 − 𝟏)]
• Sample size large or small. 𝒏
• Population variance is known.

• Population infinite and may not be 𝑿 − 𝝁𝑯𝟎

normal. 𝒁= 𝝈
𝑺
ൗ 𝒏
• Sample size large.
• Population variance is unknown.

• Population finite and may not be 𝑯𝟎 𝑿 − 𝝁

normal. 𝒁= 𝝈
𝑺
ൗ 𝒏 × [ (𝑵 − 𝒏)Τ(𝑵 − 𝟏)]
• Sample size large.

• Populations are normal. 𝑿 𝟏 − 𝑿𝟐

𝒁=
• Sample happen to be large. 𝝈𝟐𝒑𝟏 𝝈𝟐𝒑𝟐
+
𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
• Population variances are known.
Z-Test for testing difference between means

• Populations are normal. 𝑿 𝟏 − 𝑿𝟐

𝒁=
𝟏 𝟏
• Sample happen to be large. 𝝈𝟐𝒑 ( + )
𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
• Presumed to have been drawn from
the same population.
• Population variances are known.
Z-Test for testing difference between means

• Use in case of qualitative data. ෝ−𝒑

𝒑
𝒁=
𝒑. 𝒒
• Sampling distribution may take the 𝒏
form of binomial probability
distribution.
• H1 may be one-sided or two-sided. 𝑝Ƹ = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠
• Mean = 𝑛. 𝑝
• Standard Deviation = 𝑛. 𝑝. 𝑞
Z-Test for testing of proportions

• Sample drawn from two different 𝑝Ƹ𝟏 − 𝑝Ƹ𝟐

populations. 𝒁=
𝑝Ƹ𝟏 𝑞ො𝟏 𝑝Ƹ 𝟐 𝑞ො𝟐
+
𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
• Test confirm, whether the
difference between the proportion
of success is significant.
𝑝Ƹ1 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑛𝑒
• H1 may be one-sided or two-sided. 𝑝Ƹ 2 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑤𝑜
Z-Test for testing difference between proportions

t-Test

• Population normal and infinite. 𝑿 − 𝝁𝑯𝟎

𝒕= 𝝈
𝑺
• Sample size small.
ൗ 𝒏
with degree of freedom = n − 1

σ(𝑿𝒊 − 𝑿)𝟐
𝝈𝑺 =
(𝒏 − 𝟏)
t-Test for testing means

• Population normal and finite. 𝑿 − 𝝁𝑯𝟎

𝒕= 𝝈
𝑺
• Sample size small.
ൗ 𝒏 × [(𝑵 − 𝒏)Τ(𝑵 − 𝟏)]
with degree of freedom = 𝑛 − 1

σ(𝑿𝒊 − 𝑿)𝟐
𝝈𝑺 =
(𝒏 − 𝟏)
t-Test for testing means

• Populations are normal. 𝑿𝟏 − 𝑿𝟐

𝒕=
• Sample happen to be small. 𝒏𝟏 − 𝟏 𝝈𝟐𝑺𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 − 𝟏 𝝈𝟐𝑺𝟐 𝟏 𝟏
× +
𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 − 𝟐 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐
• Presumed to have been drawn from

the same population.
with degree of freedom = (𝑛1 + 𝑛2 − 2)
• Population variances are unknown
but assumed to be equal.
t-Test for testing difference between means

• Populations are normal. 𝑫−𝟎

𝒕= 𝝈
𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒇.
• ൘
Sample happen to be small. 𝒏
• Variances of the two populations

need not be equal.
• 𝐷 = 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠

• 𝜎𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓. = 𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝐷𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠
• 𝑛 = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠.
Paired t-Test for comparing Two Related Samples

F-Test

• Population normal. 𝝈𝟐𝑺𝟏

𝑭=
𝝈𝟐𝑺𝟐
• Samples have been drawn
randomly.
• 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑛1 − 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛2 − 1 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑚.
• Observations are independent.
• 𝜎𝑆21 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝜎𝑝21 .
• There is no measurement error.

• 𝜎𝑆22 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝜎𝑝22 .
F-Test for testing equality of variances of two normal populations

Limitations of the test of Hypothesis

• Testing of hypothesis is not decision making itself but help
for decision making.
• Test does not explain the reasons as why the difference

exist, it only indicate that the difference is due to
fluctuations of sampling or because of other reasons but
the tests do not tell about the reason causing the difference.
• Tests are based on the probabilities and as such cannot be

expressed with full certainty.
• Statistical inferences based on the significance tests cannot

be said to be entirely correct evidences concerning the
truth of the hypothesis.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
Let 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , . . . , 𝑋𝑛 be a random sample from a distribution
with mean 𝜇 and variance 𝜎 2 .
Then if n is sufficiently large, has approximately a normal

distribution with
𝜇𝑋 = 𝜇 𝜇𝑋2 = 𝜎 2 Τ𝑛
and To also has approximately a normal distribution with
𝜇 𝑇𝑜 = 𝑛𝜇 𝜇2𝑇0 = 𝑛𝜇2
The larger the value of n, the better the approximation.

The Central Limit Theorem illustrated

• According to the Central Limit Theorem, when 𝑛 is large
and we wish to calculate a probability such as 𝑃(𝑎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤
𝑏), we only need “pretend” that 𝑋 is normal, standardize
it and use the normal table.
• The resulting answer will be approximately correct. The

exact answer could be obtained only by first finding the
distribution of 𝑋, so the Central Limit Theorem provides a
truly impressive shortcut.

Example
• The amount of a particular impurity in a batch of a certain

chemical product is a random variable with mean value
4.0 𝑔 and standard deviation 1.5 𝑔.
• If 50 batches are independently prepared, what is the

(approximate) probability that the sample average amount
of impurity 𝑋 is between 3.5 𝑔 and 3.8 𝑔?
• According to the rule of thumb to be stated shortly, 𝑛 =

50 is large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to be
applicable.

𝑋 has approximately a normal distribution with mean value
• 𝝁𝑿 = 𝟒. 𝟎
• 𝝈𝑿 = 𝟏. 𝟓Τ 𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏𝟐𝟏
so
𝟑.𝟓−𝟒.𝟎 𝟑.𝟖−𝟒.𝟎
• 𝑷(𝟑. 𝟓 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑. 𝟖) ≈ 𝑷( ≤𝒁≤ )
𝟎.𝟐𝟏𝟐𝟏 𝟎.𝟐𝟏𝟐𝟏
• 𝑷 𝟑. 𝟓 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑. 𝟖 = 𝜱 −𝟎. 𝟗𝟒 − 𝜱(−𝟐. 𝟑𝟔)
• 𝑷 𝟑. 𝟓 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟑. 𝟖 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟒𝟓

Rule of Thumb
If 𝒏 > 𝟑𝟎, the Central Limit Theorem can be used.
• There are population distributions for which even an 𝑛

of 40 or 50 does not suffice, but such distributions are
rarely encountered in practice.
• On the other hand, the rule of thumb is often

conservative for many population distributions, an 𝑛
much less than 30 would suffice.
• For example, in the case of a uniform population

distribution, the Central Limit Theorem gives a good
approximation for 𝑛 ≥ 12.


Design of Experiments - Week 5, 6

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Design of Experiments - Week 5, 6

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Course Instructor Prof. Misbah Ullah

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

• In this method, we test some hypothesis by

Department of Industrial Engineering

• Null Hypothesis states that there is no difference between a

• If a population mean is equal to hypothesized mean then

Department of Industrial Engineering

• Alternative Hypothesis states that there is existence of a

Department of Industrial Engineering

𝐻1 : 𝜇 > 𝜇0 Right-Tailed Test

𝐻1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 Left-Tailed Test

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

• The two possible conclusions from a hypothesis testing

Department of Industrial Engineering

𝟏 − 𝜶 is the confidence interval in which the null

Critical/Rejection Region is the range of values for the test

Non-Critical/Non-Rejection Region is the range of values

Department of Industrial Engineering

• The location of the critical value depends on the

• Depending on the distribution of the test value, you

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Type I Error: consists of rejecting the null hypothesis H0

Type II Error: involves not rejecting H0 when H0 is false.

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

3. Confidence Interval Method

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

1. State the hypotheses and identify the claim.

2. Find the critical value(s) from the appropriate table.

3. Compute the test value.

4. Make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

5. Summarize the results.

Department of Industrial Engineering

If numerical value of test statistic

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

• The P-value for obtaining a sample outcome is compared

1. P-value ≤ α → reject H0 at level α

2. P-value > α → Do not reject H0 at level α

Department of Industrial Engineering

2. Choose an appropriate test statistic.

3. Compute the P-value based on the computed value of

4. Use judgement based on the P-value and knowledge of

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• Left Tailed Test: when the critical

• Right-Tailed Test: when the critical

Two-Tailed Test: indicates that the null

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Acceptance and Rejection regions Suitable When 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region Rejection Region/

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

Acceptance and Rejection regions Suitable When 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region

Department of Industrial Engineering

Department of Industrial Engineering

Acceptance and Rejection regions Suitable When 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 𝜇0

Rejection Region/ Total Acceptance Region

Department of Industrial Engineering