3.

3
∞
(a) Applying the normalization condition ∫f
−∞
X ( x)dx = 1

6
6
x2 ⎡ x2 x3 ⎤
0
∫
⇒ c( x − )dx = 1 ⇒ c ⎢ − ⎥ = 1
6 ⎣ 2 18 ⎦ 0
18
⇒ c= = 1/6
9 × 36 − 6 3

(b) To avoid repeating integration, let’s work with the CDF of X, which is
1 ⎡ x2 x3 ⎤
FX(x) = ⎢ − ⎥
6 ⎣ 2 18 ⎦
2 3
= (9x – x )/108 (for x between 0 and 6 only)

Since overflow already occurred, the given event is X > 4 (cms), hence the conditional
probability
P(X < 5 | X > 4) = P(X < 5 and X > 4) / P(X > 4)
= P(4 < X < 5) / [1 – P(X ≤ 4)]
= [FX(5) - FX(4)] / [1 - FX(4)]
2 3 2 3 2 3
= [(9×5 – 5 ) – (9×4 – 4 )]/ [108 – (9×4 – 4 )]
= (100 – 80) / (108 – 80) = 20/28 = 5/7 ≅ 0.714

(c) Let C denote “completion of pipe replacement by the next storm”, where P(C) = 0.6. If C
indeed occurs, overflow means X > 5, whereas if C did not occur then overflow would
correspond to X > 4. Hence the total probability of overflow is (with ’ denoting compliment)

P(overflow) = P(overflow | C)P(C) + P(overflow | C’)P(C’)

= P(X > 5)×0.6 + P(X > 4)×(1 – 0.6)

= [1 - FX(5)]×0.6 + [1 - FX(4)]×0.4
= (1 – 100/108)×0.6 + (1 – 80/108)×0.4 ≅ 0.148