3.

56

Seismic capacity C is lognormal with median of 6.5 and standard deviation of 1.5

λ = ln 6.5

For lognormal distribution, µ > x m

hence σ / µ < σ / x m = 1.5 / 6.5 = 0.23
and ξ ≈δ
Since λ =ln 6.5 = ln µ − (1.5 / µ ) 2
By trial and error, µ ≈ 6.7; and ξ ≈ 1.5 / 6.7 = 0.198

ln 5.5 − ln 6.5
(a) P(Damage) = P(C<5.5) = Φ ( ) = Φ (−0.84) = 0.2
0.198

P(C > 4 ∩ C > 5.5) P(C > 5.5)

(b) P(C>5.5⏐C>4) = =
P(C > 4) P (C > 4)
ln 5.5 − ln 6.5
1 − Φ( )
0 . 198 0.907
= = = 0.915
ln 4 − ln 6.5 0.9929
1 − Φ( )
0.198

(c) Mean rate of damaging earthquake = 0.2x1/500 = 0.0004

P(building survives 100 years)

= P(no damaging earthquake in 100 years)
= e-0.0004x100 = e-0.04 = 0.96

(d) P(survival of at least 4 structures during the earthquake)

⎛5⎞ ⎛ 5⎞
= ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟(0.8) (0.2 ) + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟(0.8) (0.2 )
4 1 5 0

⎝ 4⎠ ⎝ 5⎠
= 0.4096+0.3277 = 0.737

mean rate earthquake that causes damage to at most 3 structures

= 0.737x1/500 = 0.00147

P(at least four building will survive 100 years)

= e-0.00147x100 = e-0.147 = 0.863