Lecture 1.

Definitions, Components and Aims of Epidemiology

(By Dr. S. S. Shekhawat on 6.08.2020)

Epidemiology

 The word epidemiology is derived from a Greek word, Epi=upon, demo= people and
logo = discoursing.

 ‘Study of that which is upon people’ or in modern parlance, ‘the study of disease in
populations’.

 Traditionally, ‘epidemiology’ related to studies of human populations and

‘epizootiology’ from Greek zoo=animal, to studies of animal (excluding human)
populations.

 Outbreaks of disease in human populations were called ‘epidemics’, in animal

populations were called ‘epizootics’ and in avian populations ‘epinortics’.

Definition of Epidemiology

 Epidemiology is the study of disease in populations and of factors that determine its
occurrence; the key word being populations.

 Veterinary epidemiology additionally includes investigation and assessment of other

health related events, notably productivity.

 All of these investigations involve observing animal populations and making

inferences from the observations.

 The word ‘epidemiological’ is used to describe any investigation relating to disease in

a population, whether or not the population consists of humans, domestic animals or
wildlife.

Uses of epidemiology

Epidemiology has two principal uses:

1. It serves as the investigative or diagnostic discipline for population or herd medicine.

2. It supports various forms of direct action against diseases.

1. Epidemiology as diagnostic discipline

 The epidemiological approach to diagnosis is holistic one, which contrast with the
more reductionistic approaches of clinical diagnosis and pathology.

 Its basic unit of concern – its patient is the herd, the flock, or the drove rather than the
single sick animal.

 This population unit includes the well animals as well as the sick and dead ones.

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2. Epidemiology in direct action

 In an epidemiological sense, herd diseases in systematic and logical ways, these

actions include

i. Studies on the nature and extent of disease problems present in given

population

ii. Studies on overall behavior of particular diseases in different populations, with

investigation of their determinants and patterns of occurrence

iii. Planning and evaluation of efforts to prevent or control diseases

iv. Research on new methods or approaches for the investigation and control of
crowded diseases.

Objectives of epidemiology

There are five objectives of epidemiology:

1. Determination of origin of disease whose cause is known

2. Investigation and control of disease whose cause is either unknown or poorly

understood

3. Acquisition of information on the ecology and natural history of disease

4. Planning, monitoring and assessment of disease control programmes

5. Assessment of the economic effects of a disease, and analysis of costs and economic
benefits of alternative control programmes

Types of epidemiological investigation

 There are four approaches to epidemiological investigation that traditionally have

been called ‘types’ of epidemiology.

 These are descriptive, analytical, experimental and theoretical epidemiology.

Descriptive epidemiology:

 Descriptive epidemiology involves observing and recording diseases and possible

causal factors.

 Its is usually a first part of the investigation.

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  The observations are partially subjective, but, in common with observations in other
scientific disciplines, may generate hypothesis that can be tested more rigorously
later.

Analytical epidemiology

 Analytical epidemiology is analysis of observations using suitable diagnostic and

statistical procedures.

Experimental epidemiology

 Experimental epidemiologists observe and analyse data from group of animals from
which they can be select, and in which they can alter, the factors associated with
groups.

 An important component of the experimental approach is control of the groups.

Theoretical epidemiology

 Theoretical epidemiology consists of the representation of disease using mathematical

models that attempt to simulate natural patterns of disease occurrence.

Epidemiological subdisciplines

 Various subdisciplines are now recognized.

 These generally reflect different areas of interest rather than fundamentally different
techniques.

 They all apply the four types of epidemiology and can overlap but their separate
identities are considered by some to be justifiable.

Clinical epidemiology

 Application of epidemiologic principles and biometric methods to the study of

diseases in order to improve medical decision making, namely in the areas of
diagnosis, prognostic appraisal and treatment.

 It coordinates epidemiological methodology with clinical research.

 Example: evaluation of results obtained following the treatment of a particular disease

using two distinct therapeutic protocols.

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Computational epidemiology

 Computational epidemiology involves the application of the computer science to

epidemiological studies. This includes the representation of disease by mathematical
models and use of expert systems.

Genetic epidemiology

 Study of the role and importance of inherited factors (particularly hereditary factors)
and their relation with exogenous in the occurrence of disease in populations.

 The objective is mainly to study distribution of inherited disease.

 Example: Segregative analysis used to pinpoint groups of animals (the same family
ancestry) the equivalent of family in human genetic epidemiology with higher risk of
disease.

Field epidemiology

 Field epidemiology is the practice of epidemiology in response to problems of a

magnitude sufficient enough to require a rapid or immediate action.

 It is timely, judgemental process based on description, analysis, common sense and

need to design practical control policies.

 It is sometime known as shoe-leather epidemiology because the investigator is often

required to visit the field to study disease.

Participatory epidemiology

 The techniques that are employed evolved in the social sciences and consist of simple
visual methods and interviews to generate qualitative data.

 This approach became known as ‘participatory appraisal’ and its application in

veterinary medicine is now termed as participatory epidemiology.

Molecular epidemiology

 It is the study of diseases utilizing methods of molecular characterization of their

etiological agents or of pathological changes induced by them.

 The epidemiological applications of molecular biology have drawn heavily upon the
concepts and techniques of genetic engineering.

 Example: analysis of the nucleic acid, using restriction enzymes, of several viral
strains isolated from a specific area, that allows groups from similar outbreaks to be
distinguished.

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Other subdisciplines:

 Chronic disease epidemiology

 Environmental epidemiology

 Micro-epidemiology

 Comparative epidemiology

 Macro-epidemiology

 Nutritional epidemiology

 Subclinical epidemiology

 Social epidemiology

 Psychological epidemiology

Components of epidemiology

 The first stage in any investigation is the collection of relevant data.

 Investigations can be either qualitative or quantitative or a combination of these two

approaches.

1. Qualitative investigation

1.1 The natural history of disease

 The ecology of diseases, including the distribution, mode of transmission and

maintenance of infectious diseases, is investigated by field observations.

 Successive steps in the evolution (appearance or recognition, development or

progression, disappearance) of a disease in population, when there is no intervention.

1.2 Causal hypothesis testing

 If field observations suggest that certain factors may be causally associated with a
disease, then the association must be assessed by formulating a causal hypothesis.

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2. Quantitative investigation

 Quantitative investigation involve measurement (e.g., the number of cases of disease),

and therefore expression and analysis of numerical values.

 Quantitative investigation include surveys, monitoring and surveillance, studies,

modelling and biological and economic evaluation of disease control.

2.1 Surveys

 A survey is examination of aggregate of units. A group of animals is the example of

aggregates.

 The examination usually involves counting members of the aggregate and

characteristics of member.

 In epidemiological surveys characteristic might include the presence of particular

diseases, weight and milk yield.

 A cross sectional survey records events occurring at a particular point of time.

 A longitudinal survey records events over a period of time. In longitudinal survey

events may be recorded prospectively from the present into future; or may be
retrospective record of past events.

 A particular type of diagnostic survey is screening. This the identification of

diagnosed cases of disease using rapid tests or examinations. The aim is to separate
individuals that probably have a disease from those that probably do not.

2.2 Monitoring and Surveillance

Monitoring is the making of routine observations on health, productivity and environmental

factors and recording and transmission of these observations.

 Thus the regular recording of milk yields is monitoring, as is the routine recording of
meat inspection findings at abattoirs. The identity of individual diseased animals
usually not recorded.

Surveillance is more intensive form of data recording than monitoring.

 It is now used in much wider sense to include all types of disease- infectious and
non-infectious and involves the collation and interpretation of data collected during
monitoring programmes, usually of the recording of the identity of diseased
individuals, with a view to detecting changes in populations health.

 It is normally a part of control programmes for specific diseases.

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  The recording of tuberculosis lesions at abattoir, followed by tracing of infected
animals from the abattoir back to their farms of origin, is an example of surveillance.

2.3 Studies

 ‘Study’ is a general term, which refers to any type of investigation.

 However in epidemiology, a study usually involves comparison of groups of animals;

for e.g. A comparison of weights of animals that are fed different diets.

 There are four main types of epidemiological studies

 Experimental studies

 Cross-sectional studies

 Case-control studies

 Cohort studies

2.3.1 Experimental study

 In an experimental study the investigator has the ability to allocate animals to various
groups, according to factors which the investigator can randomly assign to animals.

 An important example is clinical trial.

The other types of study- cross sectional, case control and cohort are observational.

2.3.2 Cross sectional study

It investigates relationships between disease and hypothesized causal factors in a specified

populations.

 Animals are categorized according to presence or absence of disease and

hypothesized causal factors.

2.3.3 Case control study

 It compares a group of diseased animals with a group of healthy animals with respect
to exposure to hypothesized causal factors.

 For example, a group of cats with urolithiasis can be compared with a group of cats
without urolithiasis with respect to consumption of dry cat food has effect on
pathogenesis of disease.

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2.3.4 Cohort study

 Here group exposed to factor is compared with a group not exposed to the factors
with respect to development of a disease.

 It is then possible to calculate a level of risk of developing a disease in relation to

exposure to the hypothesized causal factors.

2.4 Modelling

 Disease dynamics and effect of different control strategies can be represented using
mathematical equations.

 Another type of modelling is biological simulation using experimental animals

(frequently laboratory animals) to simulate the pathogenesis of diseases that occur
naturally in animals and man.

3. Disease control

 The goal of epidemiology is to improve the veterinarian’s knowledge so that diseases

can be controlled effectively and productivity thereby optimized.

 This can be fulfilled by treatment, prevention or eradication.

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 Lecture 2. Agent, Host and Environmental Strategies of Epidemiology
(By Dr. S. S. Shekhawat on 13.08.2020)

Determinants

 A determinant is any characteristic that affects the health of a population.

 Diet, for e.g., is a determinant of bovine hypomagnesaemia; reduced food intake and
low levels of plant magnesium, related to rapid grass growth, are associated with an
increased incidence of the disease.

Classification of determinants

Determinants can be classified in three ways:

1. Primary and secondary

2. Intrinsic and extrinsic

3. Associated with host, agent and environment

1. Primary and secondary determinants

 Primary determinants are those factors whose variations exert a major effect in
inducing a disease.

 Frequently, primary determinants are necessary causes e.g., Exposure to distemper

virus is a primary determinants of canine distemper.

 Secondary determinants correspond to predisposing, enabling and reinforcing factors.

E.g., Sex is secondary determinant of canine heart valve incompetence; male dogs are
more likely to develop incompetence than females.

2. Intrinsic and extrinsic determinants

 Some determinants are internal to host for example genetic constitution these
determinants are intrinsic also termed as endogenous.

 Some determinants are external to the host e.g., transportation, which may result in
physical trauma, producing bruises of carcasses such determinants are extrinsic also
termed as exogenous.

3. Determinants Associated with Host, Agent and Environment

 Determinants commonly are classified into those associated with the host, the agent
and the environment.

 These three groups of factors are sometimes called the triad.

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3.1 host determinants

3.1.1 Genotype

 The genetic constitution of the host is its genotype.

 Some diseases have totally genetic cause, that is, alterations in gene structure are
considered to have marked effect on pathogenesis, and they may be inherited by
succeeding generations; an example is haemophilia A and b in dogs.

 Genetic diseases generally belong to one of three categories

 Chromosomal disorders

 Mendelian (simply inherited disorders)

 Multifactorial disorders

3.1.2 Age

 The occurrence of many diseases shows a distinct association with age.

 Many bacterial and viral diseases, for instance, are more likely to occur and to be fatal
in young than in old animals either because of an absence of acquired immunity or
because of low non immunological host resistance.

3.1.3 Sex

Sexual differences in disease occurrence may be attributed to hormonal, occupational, social

and ethological and genetic determinants

3.1.3.1 Hormonal determinants

 The effect of sex hormones may predispose animals to disease.

 Bitches are more likely to develop diabetes mellitus than dogs.

3.1.3.2 Occupational determinants

 Sex associated occupational hazards, although more relevant to human than animal
disease, can be identified occasionally in animals, where animal use is equated with
occupation.

 Example: increased risk of contracting heartworm infection by male dog relative to

bitches may result from increased occupational exposure of male dogs during hunting
to the mosquito.

3.1.3.3 Social and ethological determinants

 Behavioral pattern may account for bite wound abscesses being more common in
male than in female cats.

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3.1.4 Genetic determinants

 Genetic differences in disease incidence may be inherited either by being sex linked,
sex limited or sex influenced.

3.1.5 Species and breed

 Species and breeds vary in the in their susceptibility and responses to different
infectious agent. Thus dog do not develop heart water.

 Rottweilers and Doberman pinschers react more severely to canine parvovirus

enteritis than other breeds.

 Boxer appears to be more susceptible than other breeds to mycotic diseases, such as
coccidioidomycosis.

3.1.6 Size and confirmation

 Size, independent of particular breed associations, has been identified as disease

determinant.

 Hip dysplasia and osteosarcoma are more common in large breeds than in small
breeds of dog.

 The conformation of animals may similarly increase the risk of some disease.

 For instance, cows with small pelvic outlet relative to their size are predisposed to
dystocia.

3.1.7 Coat colour

 Predisposition to some diseases is associated with coat colour, which is heritable and
a risk indicator.

 For example white cats have a high risk of developing cutaenous squamous cell
carcinoma related to lack of pigment which protects the skin from the carcinogenic
effect’s of sun’s ultraviolet radiation.

3.2 Agent determinants

3.2.1 Virulence and pathogenicity

 Infectious agents vary in their ability to infect and to induce disease in animals.

 The ability to induce disease is expressed in terms of virulence and pathogenicity.

 Virulence is the ability of an infectious agent to cause disease, in a particular host, in

terms of severity.

 Pathogenicity refers to quality of disease induction.

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3.2.2 Gradient of infection

 Gradient of infection refers to the variety of responses of an animal to challenge by an

infectious agent and therefore represents the combined effect of an agent’s
pathogenicity and virulence, and host characteristics such as susceptibility and
pathological and clinical reactions.

 It is also refers as different degrees of response of a host to an infection, ranging from

subclinical infection to fatal illness.

 Inapparent (silent) infection: This is infection of susceptible host without

clinical signs.

 Clinical infection: Infection associated with clinical signs; infectious disease.

 Subclinical infection: Infection that doesn’t produce clinical signs but

generates detectable biological reactions.

3.2.3 Outcome of infection

 Clinical disease may result in the development of a long standing chronic clinical
infection, recovery or death.

 The carrier state: Individual that harbours a specific pathogen or potential pathogen in
the absence of discernible clinical signs, but that may serve as a source of this agent.

 Different type of carriers are recognized depending upon the stage of disease (healthy
or asymptomatic if not disease; incubatory, latent and chronic).

 Healthy carrier: Carrier of a specific infectious agent who doesnot exhibit any clinical
signs associated with the disease throughout the duration of infection. e.g., Birds and
rodents harbouring arbovirus, “Typhoid Mary

 Incubatory carrier: Incubatory carrier are animals that excrete agent during the disease
incubation period. Example: Dogs usually shed rabies in their saliva for upto 5 days
before clinical signs of rabies develop and periods as long as 14 days have been
reported.

 Convalescent carrier: Individuals remaining in a carrier state as it recovers from the

disease and for a variable period of time afterward depending on the individual and
the infectious agent.

 Active carrier: Carrier that provides the support needed for the agent multiply.
Example: Pig infected with pseudorabies.

 Mechanical carrier (Passive carrier): Individual contaminated with the infectious

agent that does not multiply or replicate in the host. Example: Chickens may act as
mechanical carriers for mycoplasma.

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  Chronic carrier: Individuals remaining in a carrier state for a long period of time after
convalescence, sometimes untill death. Example: Pigs that recovered from
pseudorabies, cattle following bovine infectious rhinotracheitis.

 Latent infection: A latent infection is one that persists in an animal and in which there
are no overt clinical signs.

 Inapparent disease: Condition that is never observed clinically. Example: Subclinical

mastitis.

 Inapparent infection: Infection that does not produce detectable clinical signs or
performance losses.

3.2.4 Microbial colonization of host

Infectious agents enter a host at varying times during its life.

Exogenous and endogenous pathogens

 The exogenous pathogens are not usually present in the host. They are generally
acquired by exposure to an infected animal and usually produce disease with clearly
identifiable clinical signs and pathological lesions. Example canine distemper,
rinderpest.

 Endogenous pathogens are often found in healthy animals, commonly in

gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts and usually do not cause disease unless the host
is stressed. Example; E. coli which is commonly found in intestinal tract of calves.

Opportunistic pathogens

 A microorganism that doesnot ordinarily cause disease but becomes pathogenic under
certain circumstances.

 Some organisms cause disease only in host whose resistance is lowered.

 Example: Bordetella bronchoseptica after viral pulmonary infection.

 Opportunistic vector: a vector responsible for transmitting a pathogen in an accidental

manner.

Example: Broad sense: cat and tularaemia

Strict interpretation: fly and black leg (Clostridium cauvoei)

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 3.3 Environmental determinants

 The environment includes location, climate and husbandry.

3.3.1 Location

 Local geological formations, vegetation and climate affect the spatial distribution of
both animals and disease.

 The temporal distribution of disease is also affected by location because of the

seasonal effect of climate.

3.3.2 Climate

Two types of climates can be identified:

 Macroclimate: It comprises the normal components of weather to which animals are

exposed: rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, humidity and wind, all of which can
affect health.

 Microclimate: It is a climate that occur in a small defined space. This may be as small
as within a few millimeters of plant’s or animal’s surface or as large as piggery or calf
house.

 The microclimate may be terrestrial or biological.

3.3.3. Husbandry

Housing

 The structure of bedding materials and surfaces is also a determinants.

 Example: claw lesions are more common and severe in pigs reared on aluminum slats
than the pigs reared on concrete slabs or soil.

Diet

 Diet has obvious effects in diseases caused by energy, protein, vitamin, mineral
deficiencies.

Management (including animal use)

 Management determines stocking density and production policy.

 Increased densities increase the challenge of microbial pathogens.

 The use to which the animal is put can affect disease occurrence.

 Equine limb injuries are relatively common in hunters.

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Stress

 Stress is generally associated with adverse conditions.

 It is often considered as arising from factors such as weaning, overcrowding,

transportation, changes in diet and other environmental factors.

4. Interaction
 Determinants associated with host, agent or environment do not exert their effects in
isolation, but interact to induce disease.
 Interaction refers to the interdependent operation of factors to produce an effect.
 Two specific meanings are attached to interaction.

4.1 Biological interaction

 Biological interaction involves a dependence between two factors based on

underlying physical or chemical association.

 Example: There is a chemical interaction between the K88 antigen of E. coli and
receptors in the intestine of some pigs which results in bacteria that possess the
antigen begin pathogenic to the pigs with receptors.

 There appears to be a physical interaction, between the presence of bacteria and poor
ventilation in the induction of calf respirator disease, associated with density of air
borne bacteria.

4.2 Statistical interaction

 Statistical interaction is a quantitative effect involving two or more factors.

 Often disease occurrence does not depend simply on the presence or absence of a
factor there may be continuous variation in the frequency of occurrence of disease
associated with both strength of the factor.

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Epidemiological triad:

 Triad comprising the three components of the epidemiological system –

 Host

 Agent

 Environment

 The determinant associated with the host, agent and environment do not exert their
effect in isolation, but interact to produce disease.

Concept of iceberg:

The quantitative differences in manifestation of infectious disease within population can be

described using the concept of iceberg.

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 Lecture -3: Transmission and Maintenance of infection
(By Dr S S Shekhwat on 20.08.2020)

Transmission of infection
Transmission may be either:

A. Horizontal (Lateral): Horizontally transmitted infections are those transmitted from any
segment of a population to another; for example, influenza virus from one horse to a
stablemate.

B. Vertical: Vertical transmitted infections are transmitted from one generation to the next
by infection of the embryo or foetus while utero or in ovo.

Horizontal transmission:

 Infection can be transmitted horizontally either directly or indirectly.

i. Direct transmission

 Direct transmission implies direct and essentially immediate transfer of an agent from
infected to susceptible hosts.

 Direct contact as through touch, a scratch, lick, bite or intercourse.

 Faecal oral route

 Direct projection, also known as droplet spread.

 Example: Rabies by bite

ii. Indirect transmission

 Indirect transmission implies the passage of infectious agents between individuals

through the medium of inanimate or animate objects.

 The time period between contamination of the object and subsequent exposure of
susceptible individuals is highly variable and may range from few minutes to years.

 In direct transmission may be vehicle borne or vector-borne.

iii. Air borne transmission

 Air borne transmission involves the dissemination of microbial aerosols.

 Droplets and other large particles that promptly settle out of the air are not considered to
air borne.
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  Air borne transmission may be affected by droplet nuclei or dust.

1. Types of Host and Vector

1.1 Host

1.1.1 Host

 A plant, animal or arthropod that is capable of being infected with, and therefore giving
sustenance to, an infectious agent.

 Replication of development of the agent usually occurs in host.

 Examples: Vertebrates and rabies virus; ruminants and Brucella; dogs and Toxocara
canis.

1.1.2 Definitive host

 A parasitological term describing a host in which an organism undergoes its sexual phase
of reproduction.

 Example: ruminants and equines for the giant liver flukes; canines for hydatid
echinococcosis; small ruminants and chamois for the protostrongylid nematodes.

1.1.3 Final host

 Synonym for definitive host

 Both final and definitive imply the end of the line, in other words termination of dynamic
process.

1.1.4 Primary (natural) host

 An animal that maintains an infection in the latter’s endemic area (e.g., dogs infected
with distemper virus).

 Since an infectious agent frequently depends upon a primary host for its long term
existence, the host is also called a maintenance host.

1.1.5 Secondary host

 A species that additionally is involved in the life cycle of an agent, especially outside
typical endemic areas (e.g., cattle infected with strains of FMD virus that usually cycle in
buffaloes).

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1.1.6 Paratenic host

 A host in which an agent is transferred mechanically, without further development (e.g.,

fish, containing Diphylobothrium spp. Larvae).

1.1.7 Intermediate host

 An animal in which an infectious agent undergoes some development, frequently with

asexual reproduction (e.g., Cysticercus pisiformis in rabbits and hares).

1.1.8 Amplifier host

 Amplifying hosts are generally considered to be those intermediate hosts that do not
suffer from disease, but in which the number of infectious units increases extensively and
provides a source for epidemics in humans and domestic animals.

 Example: Litters of baby pigs infected with Japanese encephalitis virus.

1.1.9 Hibernating host

 An animal in which an agent is held, probably without replication, in a state of

‘suspended animation’.

 Example: Hibernating snakes infected with either western, eastern and Japanese
encephalitis virus.

1.1.10 Incidental (dead-end or accidental) host

 Dead-end host: Species or individuals hosting a pathogen that do not permit transmission
of that pathogen under normal circumstances.

 Example: Humans infested with hydatid cysts (Echinococcus spp).

1.1.11 Link host

 A host that forms a link between other host species

 Example: pigs linking infected herons to man in Japanese encephalitis.

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1.1.12 Reservoir

 A reservoir host is one in which an infectious agent normally lives and multiplies, and
therefore is a common source of infection to other animals.

 Any animate (humans, animals, insect etc.) or inanimate object (plants, soil, feces etc.)
or any combination of these serving as a habitat of a pathogen that reproduces itself in
such a way as to be transmitted to a susceptible host.

 Animal reservoir: The rat as a reservoir of leptospira, chickens carrying Histomonas

meleagridis - the agent responsible for histomoniasis in turkeys.

 Inanimate reservoir: The soil harbouring spores of Clostridium chauoei

 Reservoir for more than one component: Warthogs and ticks (African swine fever). The
African swine fever virus is maintained in a region by a cycle of infection between
warthogs and soft ticks. Both are needed for survival of this virus. Bushpigs can also
serve as reservoir of this agent.

 A rodent and its burrow (plague caused by Yersinia pestis). When a rodent carrying
Yersinia pestis dies in its burrow, the stable soil conditions, enriched by nutritive
elements coming from decomposition of dead rodent, are favourable to the multiplication
of the bacteria.

 Animal reservoirs of disease agents include

 Carrier animals, animals with inapparent infections that are also transmitters of
the infectious agent

 Intermediate hosts and vectors

Incidental reservoir

 Animate or inanimate object serving as reservoir for a given pathogen because of

fortuitous circumstances and generally with out prevailing in its role.

 Example: clothing contaminated with small pox virus and stocked by the army for 15
years before being marketed as surplus.

Passive reservoir

 Reservoir ensuring the preservation of a pathogen without multiplication.

 Example: a barn contaminated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a field contaminated

with bacillus anthracis.

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1.1.13 Commensal

 Microorganism or organism living on or in a host without being harmful to it.

 Example: Numerous bacteria living at the surface of mucosa or in the digestive tract of
animals and humans.

1.2 Vector

 An animate transmitter of infectious agents.

 Vectors are defined as invertebrate animals- usually arthropods that transmit infectious
agents to vertebrates.

1.2.1 Mechanical vector

 An animal (usually an arthropod) that physically carries an infectious agent to its primary
or secondary host.

 Example: mosquitoes and fleas transmitting myxomatosis virus between rabbits.

1.2.2 Biological vector

 A vector (usually an arthropod) in which an infectious agent undergoes either a necessary

part of life cycle, or multiplication, before transmission to the natural or secondary host.

 Example: arthropods and arboviruses, rickettsioses.

 For an arthropod to fulfill the role of biological vector, there must be an initial phase
when the pathogenic agent is unlikely to be transmitted.

 During this phase the agent may either multiply (propagative transmission), such that in
few days it increases in number above its original concentration, or accomplish a
necessary phase of development (development transmission) or undergo a combination of
both these processes.

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 1.3 Three types of biological transmission occur

1.3.1 Developmental transmission

 With an essential phase of development occurring in the vector e.g., Dirofilaria immitis
in mosquitoes

1.3.2 Propagative transmission

 When the agent multiplies in the vector e.g., louping ill virus in ixodid ticks.

1.3.3 Cyclopropagative transmission

 A combination of above two (1 & 2)

1.4 Factors associated with the spread of infection

 Three factors are important in the transmission of infection

1.4.1 Characteristic of host

 A host’s susceptibility and infectiousness determine its ability to transmit infection.

 An animal is not infectious as soon as it is infected – a period of time elapses between

infection and the shedding of the agent; this is parasites prepatent period, a virus eclipse
phase and bacterium’s latent period.

 In contrast, the incubation period is the period of time between infection and the
development of clinical signs.

 The generation time is the period between infection and maximum infectiousness.

Latency period: (preshedding period)

 Interval between the time of contamination of an individual by a pathogen and the time
when it becomes a source of the agent.

1.4.2 Characteristics of pathogens

 The important characteristics of pathogens that affect transmission of infectious agent

are:

 Infectivity relates to the amount of an organism that is required to initiate infection.

 Virulence also affect transmission and can change.

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  It is defined as host specific ability of an infectious agent to multiply in the host while
reducing lesions and disease.

 Pathogenicity: the host specific ability of an agent to cause disease or otherwise induce
pathological change in susceptible host.

 Pathogenicity is host specific; that is, an agent pathogenic to one genus or species of
organism is not necessarily pathogenic to other organisms.

 Infectiousness: A relative quantification of the case with which a disease organism is

transmitted from one host to another. Example: Diseases transmitted by aerosols are
generally more infective than those transmitted by arthropods vectors.

 Invasiveness: A measure of the ability of a microorganism or neoplasm to propagate

through cells, tissue, organs etc. Example: Leptospira typhimurium is a highly invasive
organism.

1.4.2 Effective contact

 Effective contact describes the conditions under which infection is likely to occur.

 Effective contact may be very short (e.g., seasonally transmitted, vector borne diseases)or
potentially of many years duration(e.g., anthrax spores in soil).

1.5 Routes of transmission

 The site or sites by which an infectious agent gains entry to a host and by which it leaves
the host, are the agents routes of infection.

A. The oral route

 Infection via mouth is one of the more common routes of entry, especially in relation to
the enteric organisms which often escape from an infected animal in the faeces.

B. The respiratory route

 The respiratory route is also a common method of transmission for many infectious
agents, including that those are not restricted to the respiratory tract ( e.g., Salmonella
typhimurium).

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C. Infection via skin, cornea and mucous membranes

 Transmission via skin is percutaneous.

 Certain agents infect only the skin and transmission is always by direct contact with
either another infected animal or a fomites: examples are ring worm and ectoparasitic
infestations.

 Another important form of percutaneous infection is from bites by both vertebrates and
arthropods. Example: viruses of rabies

 Infection of cornea may remain localized; for example bovine keratoconjuctivitis.

 Although few diseases can be transmitted through intact skin, several can infect
undamaged mucous membranes. For example, Trypanosoma equiperdum in horses.

1.6 Methods of transmission

 Six main methods of transmission, which bring infectious agents into contact with the
sites of infection, can be identified.

1.6.1 Ingestion

 This may occur via a mechanical vehicle, for example contaminated water or by ingestion
of intermediate hosts such as cestode cyst in meat.

1.6.2 Aerial transmission

 This involves airborne transmission of infectious agents via contaminated air.

 It is the usual method of transmission with hardy spores of fungi and some bacteria, and
also occurs with pathogens of the respiratory tract that are expired on the breadth of
infected animals and enter susceptible ones during inspiration.

1.6.3 Contact

 Contact transmission is without transmission factors (e.g., mechanical vectors) and

without participation of external medium.

1.6.4 Inoculation

 Inoculation is the introduction into the body, by puncture of the skin or through a wound
of infectious agents.

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1.6.5 Iatrogenic transmission

 Iatrogenic literally means ‘created by a doctor’.

 Thus iatrogenically transmitted infection is one that is transferred during surgical or

medical practice.

1.6.6 Coitus

 Some infectious agents may be transmitted during coitus.

 Certain diseases are transmitted only in this way. These are called venereal diseases.

1.7 Long distance transmission of infection

 Infectious diseases can be transmitted by the methods described above over long
distances as a result of the mobility of infected animals, microorganisms and parasites,
vectors and fomites.

2. Vertical Transmission

There are two types of vertical transmission

2.1 Hereditary

 Hereditarily transmitted diseases are carried within the genome of either parent.

2.2 Congenital

 Congenitally transmitted diseases are, literally, those present at birth.

 Congenital refers to disease acquired either in utero or in ova, rather than inherited.

2.3 Germinative transmission

 This involves either infection of superficial layers of ovary or infection of ovum itself.
E.g., chicken leucosis viruses.

2.4 Transmission to embryo

 This is via the placenta or via the foetal circulation through the placenta to the foetus. For
e.g., kittens can be transplacentally infected with feline panleucopenia virus.

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2.5 Ascending infection

 This is infection that is transmitted from the lower genital canal to the amnion and
placenta. (e.g., some Staphylococcus and Staphylococcus spp. Infection).

2.6 Transovarial and trans-stadial transmission in arthropods

 Some arthropods notably ticks and mites, transmit bacteria, viruses and protozoa from
one generation to another via their eggs; this is transovarial transmission.

 Examples of transovarially transmitted infections include bovine anaplasmosis and

canine babesiosis.

 In contrast, some arthropods only transmit infections from one developmental stages to
another (e.g., in ticks: larva to nymph, nymph to adult); this is trans-stadial transmission.
Example: Theileriosis occrring in cattle, sheep & goats and transmitted by tick-
Rhipiciphalus.

Maintenance of Infection
1. Hazards to Infectious Agents

 The transmission of infection involves some stages when the infectious agent in the host,
and others when it is in external environment or in vector or in both.

A. The environment within the host

 The host has its natural defense mechanisms: surface active chemicals, specific reactive
cells, phagocytes and humoral antibodies.

 The successful parasite must be able to avoid, in part, these mechanisms, and must also
avoid competition with other agents that may simultaneously infect the host in similar
niche.

 Parasites have evolved strategies to resist the host’s protective mechanisms, such as acid-
resist anthelminth cuticles and an intracellular mode of life.

B. The external environment

 The two main hazards presented by the external environment are desiccation and
ultraviolet light.

 Many agents may be partially protected from desiccation by being discharged in moist
carriers such as faeces and urine.

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  Examples: Leptospires persist in longer in paddy fields than in semi arid regions. Some
agents like pox viruses are resistant to desiccation and can survive for long periods in dry
infected scab material.

2. Maintenance Strategies

 The ways in which infectious agents are maintained can be considered as strategies for
maintenance.

 Five main strategies can be identified.

2.1 Avoidance of a stage in the external environment

 Some agents avoid transfer via the environment. There are four main methods.

a. By vertical transmission

b. By venereal transmission

c. By vector transmission

d. By transmission by sarcophagi

2.2 Resistant forms

 The harshness of the external environment can be buffered by surrounding the infectious
agent with a shell that is resistant to heat and desiccation.

 Some bacteria form such shells. Example: Clostridium and Bacillus.

2.3 Rapidly-in, rapidly-out strategy

 Some agents enter the host, replicate and leave very quickly, before the host has the time
to mount an immune response or die.

 Many viruses of the URT can do this within 24 hrs.

2.4 Persistence within the host

 Infectious agent may persist within the host, sometimes for life.

 Persistence occurs because the host’s defense mechanisms fail to eliminate agents.

 This failure may arise because of immunosuppression and tolerance.

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  Other means of avoiding the host’s immune response are antigen variation, intracellular
parasitism, multiplication in sites inaccessible to the immune response and the induction
of ineffective antibodies.

2.5 Extension of host range or example

 Many infectious agents can infect more than one host.

 Indeed, their number exceeds that of one host agents.

 In man, for example, over 80% of the infectious agent to which he is susceptible are
shared by other species of animal.

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Survey and Surveillance of animal diseases and related parameters
(By Dr S S Shekhawat, Assistant Professor, PGIVER on 27.08.2020)

 Information on disease and associated events, such as productivity, can be obtained from
surveys.

 A survey is an examination of an aggregate (e.g. group of animals) of units.

 This usually involves counting members of aggregate of units and measuring their
characteristics. Here characteristic include the presence of particular disease, weight and
milk yield etc.

 An important application of surveys in epidemiology is estimation of prevalence of

clinical disease, infection or seropositive animals from samples of an animal population.

 Surveys are carried out to supplement the normal reporting system and to provide
specific quantitative data on the disease studied because data available from reports is
often not sufficient for epidemiological analysis.

 The major objectives of carrying out the epidemiological survey are :

 To obtain baseline disease information

 To determine the magnitude of a disease problem

 To determine priorities for disease prevention and control

 To monitor the success of prevention or control programme.

Census Vs Sample survey

 If all animals in a population are investigated, the survey is census.

 Census is the only means of measuring exactly the distribution of a variable in a

population. But it is very difficult and impossible to conduct.

 So sample survey is designed well then a reasonably accurate and acceptable estimate of
a variable can be made by examining some of the animals in the relevant population i.e. a
sample.

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Types of Survey

a. Cross-sectional survey- records events at a particular point of time.

b. Longitudinal survey- records event over a period of time.

c. Screening- this is diagnostic survey identifying undiagnosed cases of disease using rapid
tests or examination.

Sampling

 The validity of the sampling theory is based on the assumption that an aggregate of units
can be divided into representative subunits and that characteristic of the aggregate can be
estimated from subunits.

 Target Population: Total population about which information is required.

 Study population: Population from which sample is drawn.

 Target population and study population should be same but practically not
possible.

 The study population consists of elementary units which cannot be divided

further.

 Elementary units: it is the population which cannot be divided further.

 Stratum: A collection of elementary units, grouped according to a common

characteristic, is a stratum.

 Sampling frame: Before a sample is taken, members of the study population must be
identified by constructing a list; this is called sampling frame.

 Sampling unit: Each member of the sampling frame is a sampling unit.

 Sampling fraction: It is the ratio of sample size to study population size.

 If animals were chosen from 1000 animal population, the sampling fraction would be 1%.

 Veterinary sampling frames include lists of abattoirs, farms, veterinary hospitals, etc.

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Types of sampling

There are two main types of sampling.

1. Non probability sampling: Here the choice the sample is left to the investigator.

a. Convenience sampling: It is the collection of easily accessible sampling units.

 When convenience is the main criterion for selecting a sample, it is very unlikely that the
sample will be truly representative of the study population, resulting in biased estimates.

b. Purposive selection: It is the choice of sample, the averages of whose quantitative

characteristics or distribution of whose qualitative characteristic are similar to those of
target population.

c. The object is to select a sample where characteristics are balanced with those of the target
population.

2. Probability sampling methods

The selection of the sample is made using a deliberate, unbiased process, so that each
sampling unit in the group has an equal probability of being selected; this is the basis of
random sampling.
a. Simple random sampling: A simple random sample is selected by drawing up a list of
all animals or other relevant sampling units in the study population, and then selecting the
sampling units randomly.

b. Systematic sampling: Systematic sampling involves selection of sampling units at equal

intervals, the first animal being selected randomly. For e.g., 63, 163, 263, 363 and so on.

c. Stratified random sampling: it involves dividing the population into separate,

exclusive groups (strata) and selecting a fixed number of samples from each group
(stratum).

 Proportional allocation is the method practiced.

 For e.g., 10 animals from 100 (60 male + 40 female)

 So, sample should be taken 6 male + 4 female

d. Cluster sampling:

 Sometimes, the strata (clusters) are defined naturally (e.g. litters, herds etc.) or by
geographical locations (e.g. countries, villages etc.).

 Then all the individuals within the clusters have to be selected e.g. 10 pups from 20
bitches which are giving birth to 5 pups each are to be selected.

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 Then select 2 bitches (clusters) randomly

 Select all the pups from both clusters.

Two stage cluster sampling:

 It involves use of random sampling at different hierarchical levels of aggregated units of

interest.

 The herds are selected randomly as primary sampling units and within each of the
selected herds;

 The animals are selected randomly as secondary sampling units

 e.g. to select 10 pups from 20 bitches which are giving birth to 5 pups each

 Select 2 pups randomly from these 5 bitches

Multi stage cluster sampling

 It is progressively higher levels of subsampling.

 1° Region

 2° Dairy farms

 3° Cows

Surveillance
 An essential part of disease control is the ability of document the occurrence of disease
with goal of developing effective control and eradication strategies; this is surveillance.

 Surveillance is derived from the French, surveiller, ‘to watch or guard a person’.

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  Monitoring includes routine observation on health, productivity and environmental
factors and the recording and transmission of these observations e.g. recording of milk
yields, T.B. lesion during meat inspection etc. The uses of animals disease monitoring
include:

i. Estimating disease frequency and trends

ii. Certifying the disease is absent

iii. The early detection of foreign and/or emerging diseases

iv. The making of management decisions based on above.

 Surveillance is more intensive form of data recording than monitoring and has three
distinct elements:

i. Gathering, recording and analysis of data

ii. Dissemination of information to interested parties, so that:

iii. Action can be taken to control a disease

 Surveillance is the continuous investigation of given population to detect the occurrence

of disease for control purposes, which may involve testing of a part of population. (OIE,
2002).

 The aim of surveillance is to follow up specific disease in terms of morbidity and

mortality in time and place and to follow the spread of infection/disease in the susceptible
population.

 The broad aims of veterinary surveillance follow the rules of Veterinary Medicine in
general, namely, maintenance of high standards of animal health and welfare and
protection of public health.

 Several different objectives of surveillance are

 Rapid detection of disease outbreaks

 Early identification of disease problems

 Assessment of the health status of defined population

 Definition of priorities for disease control and prevention

 Identification of new and emerging diseases

 Evaluation of disease control programmes

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  Provision of information to plan and conduct research

 Confirmation of absence of a specific disease

Types of surveillance

 There are several types of surveillance defined by function and method.

 Sentinel surveillance

 Serological surveillance

 Passive surveillance

 Active surveillance

 Targeted surveillance

 Scanning surveillance

Sentinel surveillance

 The origin is italian: ‘sentinella’ sentry; guard’.

 Surveillance can include the entire national herd (e.g., testing for bovine tuberculosis)

 Alternatively, a few farms, abattoirs, veterinary practices or laboratories may be selected;

these are referred to as ‘sentinel’ units, because they are designed to ‘keep watch’ on the
disease.

 Thus, sentinel equine premises can be used to investigate persistence of vesicular

stomatitis virus, using previous history of a disease as the selection criterion.

 Alternatively, attention may be focused on species in general. Thus horses can be used as
sentinels for VEE infection & stray dogs can be sentinels for canine parvo virus infection,
infection being identified serologically.

 Domestic animals also can be used as sentinels of human environmental health hazards
such as carcinogens and insecticides. E.g., EEE infects horses & other vertebrates,
including man, but has a reservoir in birds.

 Surveillance of this infection therefore includes regular serological testing of sentinel

flocks of chickens or pheasants kept outdoors in association with the result of virus
culture on captured mosquitoes, and veterinary surveillance in EEE illness in horses.

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Serological surveillance

 Serological surveillance (serosurveillance) is the identification of patterns of current and

past infection using serological tests.

Passive and active surveillance

Passive surveillance

 Passive surveillance has been described as the continuous monitoring of the existing
disease status of the populations that are survived, using routinely collected to produce
outputs which in turn can feed into policy decisions.

 Examples include reports of laboratory diagnosis, routine meat inspection findings and
statutory notification of disease.

Active surveillance

 It involves the committed efforts of veterinary authorities to collect information

commonly by undertaking surveys of specific diseases.

 Active surveillance based on well-designed surveys, can produce the unbiased estimate.

Targeted and scanning surveillance

Targeted surveillance

 Collects specific information about a defined disease so that its level in the defined
population can be measured and its options monitored.

 It is often planned using appropriate statistical sampling theory and commonly focuses on
populations that are at increased risk of being affected thereby increasing the efficiency
of detection.

 Example: Targeting of fallen stock of surveillance of BSE.

Scanning surveillance

 Maintains a continuous watch over endemic disease. Here unexpected changes can be
recognized.

 If scanning surveillance identifies an unusual high frequency of similar, undiagnosed

cases, it may trigger a more detailed investigation to explore the likelihood of new
disease occurring. This is syndromic surveillance.

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Sources of Epidemiological Data

Data

Data is defined as the collection of facts, especially numerical which can be used for further
reference of information.

Classification of Data

Data can be broadly classified into qualitative and quantitative:

1. Qualitative data describe a property of an animal, that is, its membership of group or class.
Such data therefore are termed categorical. Examples are breed and sex of an animal.

2. Quantitative data relate to amounts, rather than just indicating classes. Examples are
prevalence, incidence, body weight, milk yield, and temperature and antibody titer.

 These data are further divided into discrete and continuous.

 These data may be further divided into discrete and continuous.

a. Discrete data can have only one of a specified set of values, such as whole number
(1,2,7,8 etc.), for example, the number of teats on a sow

 Discrete data generates counts. Thus, aggregates of qualitative (categorical) data are
counted (e.g., total number of male dogs or Frisian cows).

b. Continuous data may have any value within a defined range (though the range can be
infinite). Examples are the girth of a cow and its body weight. Continuous data are
quantified by comparison with a fixed unit, that is, they are measured. Continuous data
therefore generate measurements.

Quality of Data depends on the following factors

1. Accuracy : Is an indication of the extent to which an investigation or measurement

conforms to truth.

2. Refinement: It is a degree of detail in datum. E.g. Orthopaedic surgery is less refined

description of a surgical technique than is bone plating.

3. Precision: It can be used in two senses

i. First, it can be used as synonym for refinement.

ii. Secondly, it can be used statistically to indicate the consistency of series of

measurements. E.g. 48+2 % is more precise data than 48+5%.

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 4. Reliability: Similar results has to be obtained, after repetition of same experiments, this
also used synonym for repeatability.

 Repeatability and Reproducibility both indicates reliability, but it is said to be repeatable

when same experiment, repeated by same person gives same data, but reproducibility
refers to obtaining same result for by an experiment by different person.

5. Validity: If a diagnostic technique measures what it purports to measure, it is valid.

 E.g. A midshaft femoral fracture, may be diagnosed very accurately when using ‘x’ ray
examination.

Different sources of data collection

The different sources from where the data can be collected are as follows,

Government veterinary hospitals

 These organizations are responsible for investigating diseases in different species of

livestock.

 Besides this, the Government has also set up various diagnostic laboratories where the
specimens /samples received from field are examined.

 These are the major source of data collection.

Government organized farms

 There are organized farms managed by State Governments.

 These farms constitute the good source of data collection for retrospective studies as
these data are recorded and stored routinely.

 These organizations can also help for prospective study as it is easy to collect
information/random samples.

Central government institutes

 There are certain institutes /farms that are under direct control of ICAR/ Central
Government.

 All these institutes are recording and storing data in relation to diseases and production
events regularly.

Private livestock farms

 Nowadays organized livestock farms are coming up in private sector also.

Page 9 of 13
  The data related to the milk production, type of feed used, AI practices, vaccination,
number of deaths, disease occurrence, therapeutic measures followed etc. are recorded
routinely such information is very useful in knowing the patterns of diseases and its
association with management / environmental factors in a particular area.

Slaughterhouses

 In India, large numbers of animal (cattle, sheep, goat, pigs etc.) are slaughtered daily for
human consumption generally apparently healthy animals are slaughtered, therefore
majority of the diseases are diagnosed at meat inspection are subclinical or inapparent.

 The data related to the parasitic diseases like Taeniosis, GI nematodes and chronic
diseases like TB, JD could be better obtained from these sources.

Poultry farms

 The data related to poultry diseases can be obtained from various broiler farms and
hatcheries.

 The emergence of new diseases as well as reemergence of diseases if data are collected
regularly.

 This is in-turn helps in the understanding the disease patterns and association of various
causal factors with these diseases.

Vaccine institutes

 These can provide information regarding type of vaccines produced, total doses produced
and sold in a particular area/region/State.

 The total vaccine consumption in an area will indirectly help in knowing the disease
status and awareness among masses regarding the disease problems.

Feed manufacturers

 Feed manufacturers can provide information about type of ingredients used in mixed
feed.

Pharmaceutical companies

 The sale records of pharmaceutical companies provide an indirect means of assessing the
extent of disease in a particular area.

Page 10 of 13
Private pet clinics

 Data related to health of pet animals particularly dogs, cats, lovebirds provide
information regarding disease prevalence.

Government bulletins

 An international bulletin on animal diseases covering the member countries of the world
is published by OIE provide information related to disease prevalence, incidence,
epidemics and pandemic in population.

Knackers’ yards

 The premises other than the slaughter houses where ill or dead animals, which are unfit
for human consumption, are sent for slaughtering are referred as knackers yards.

Representation of disease information

 The data related to morbidity and mortality, and demographic data are generally
represented and it should be displayed in such a way that the information conveyed can
be understood easily. There are different methods of representation of the data.

1. Table

2. Bar chart

3. Line diagram

4. Pie chart

5. Time Trend Graph

6. Box and Whisker Plot

7. Shewhart Chart

8. Cusum Chart

9. Mapping

Mapping

 Mapping is a common method of displaying geographic or spatial distribution of disease,

it is also called as cartograph.

 This is of value not only in recording of areas where diseases exist but also in
investigating the mode and direction of transmission of infectious diseases.

Page 11 of 13
  Maps can also suggest possible cause of disease of unknown aetiology.

 Maps can be qualitative, indicating location without specifying the amount of disease.

 They can also be quantitative, displaying the number of cases of disease.

 Types of maps

1. Point (dot or location) map:

 These maps show the location of disease in a political map.

 Locate by circles, squares, dots or other symbols.

2. Distribution map: A distribution map is constructed to show the area over which
disease occurs.

 Example: Area endemic to disease, area sporadic to disease and area free from the
disease are shown under different markings or shade.

3. Choroplethic map:

 Display of quantitative information

 Example: Areas with <25% prevalence, 26-50% prevalence, 51-75% prevalence and
>75% prevalence of helminths in a particular district (political map) are shown in
different shades/markings.

 Mapping according to administrative region is not a true boundary for incidence.

4. Isoplethic map:

 True boundaries between different values can be depicted by joining all points of equal
value by a line, such as joining points of equal height to produce the familiar contour
map.

5. Demographic map:

 Presenting mortality and morbidity information in relation to population size.

 Ratios or rates are presented in these types of maps.

 Less useful in veterinary practice since it is difficult to get accurate information.

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Geographic Information System

 Father of GIS – Roger Tomlinson

 Disease distribution can be mapped and analysed using geographic information systems
(GIS).

 These are computerized systems for collecting, storing, managing, interrogating and
displaying the spatial data.

 They have a range of powerful functions in addition to simple mapping; these include
graphical analysis based on spatial location, statistical analysis, and modelling.

 Coupling database and GIS technology provides the tools for a detailed analysis of spatial
patterns and distributions in veterinary profession.

 Application of GIS:

 Cartography: Maps can be produced and updated quickly.

 Overlay analysis: The maps on different data sets can be superimposed on each
other.

 Buffer generation: can provide information about the animal at risk of infection
within a given distance of an infected area.

 Ability to link and correlate graphic and non-graphic data.

Page 13 of 13
 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS
(Dr S S Shekhawat, Assistant professor, PGIVER on 03.09.2020)

Types of epidemiology
 There are four approaches to epidemiological investigations & are traditionally called as
types of epidemiology.

 They are:

 Descriptive epidemiology

 Analytical epidemiology

 Experimental epidemiology

 Theoretical epidemiology

1. Descriptive epidemiology

 First part of investigation.

 It involves observing and recording the disease and possible causal factors.

 The observations sometimes may be partially subjective and later on hypothesis will be
generated and will be rigorously tested later on.

Procedure

 Defining the population to be studied.

 Defining the disease under study.

 Describing the disease; by time, place and person.

 Measurement of diseases.

 Comparing with the known indices.

 Formation of an etiological hypothesis.

Page 1 of 12
  Here after defining the things properly, the data are collected and analyzed to arrive at an
etiological hypothesis.

 An epidemiological hypothesis should specify the following:

 Population

 Specific cause

 Expected outcome

 Dose-response relationship: The amount of cause needed to produce the effect.

 Time-response relationship: The period of exposure to the cause and effect.

Uses of descriptive epidemiology

 It gives lot of information regarding magnitude of disease and types of disease problems
existing in community or a population.

 It gives clue to the disease: Etiology and later on help in formulation of an etiological
hypothesis.

 It helps in planning and undertaking of therapeutic, preventive and control regimen.

Cross-sectional studies
(Prevalence, Survey)

 It is the simplest form of observational study.

 It is based on single examination of a cross section of population at one point in time and
these things can be applied to entire population. This study is useful in chronic cases than
short-lived cases.

 It is also known as prevalence study because prevalence can be obtained through this
study. But this study does not give much information about the natural history of a
disease and also incidence rate.

 This study investigates relationship between disease (or other associated health related
factors) and hypothesized causal factors in a specified population during a specified
period of time.

 Animals are categorized according to the presence or absence of disease and

hypothesized causal factors.

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  Inference can be made about the association between the disease and the hypothesized
causal factors. Example: Heart valve incompetence (disease) and breed (factor).

 Technically cross-sectional studies provide a snap shot of events at a particular time.

 The point of time may range from instant to longer periods although all are treated as
static point in time events.

 For the purpose of causal interpretation, cross-sectional studies are best suited to study
the permanent factors such as breed, sex or blood type.

 Example: Questioner based surveys; Studies related to ancillary data to the results of
immunologic, bacteriologic or toxicologic and slaughter house surveys.

2. Analytical epidemiology

 It is the analysis of observations by using the suitable diagnosis and statistical tests.

Observational studies

 It is similar to experimental study. Animals are allotted to the groups with respect to
certain characteristics they possess (trait, disease etc.)

 However it is not possible to assign animals to groups randomly because the investigator
has little control over factors that are being studied, as characteristics are inherent
(Examples are sex, weight and diet).

 Usually the occurrence of a disease is known by estimating the morbidity and mortality
rates.

 The estimation of mortality is straight forward whereas the morbidity rate is expressed as
prevalence and incidence rate.

 To know these things two types of observational studies are undertaken. They are

 Cross sectional study- Single examination of a cross section of population e.g.

Prevalence study

 Longitudinal study

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Longitudinal study

 Longitudinal studies are of two types, which are

 Case control study

 Cohort study

 In longitudinal studies, the observations are repeated in the same populations over
prolonged period of time. It is useful to

 Know the natural history of the disease & its future outcome

 To identify the risk factors involved

 To know the incidence rate

 Longitudinal studies are difficult to organize, expensive and time consuming.

Case-control study

 Case-control is also referred as case-comparison study, retrospective study, case control

& case history.

 Case control study is an observational study, that means looking backwards.

 Compare a group of diseased animals with a group of healthy animals with respect to
exposure to hypothesized causal factors. Example: Occurrence of Fascioliasis with
respect to exposure.

 It may be conducted with new cases or existing cases (incidence or prevalence).

 The three important features of this study are

 The exposure to this factor or factors and outcome (disease) has occurred before
the start of study.

 The study proceeds backwards from effect to cause.

 It helps to know incidence rate.

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Basic steps

 The four steps in the conduct of case-control study are,

1. Selection of cases and control

2. Matching

3. Measurement of exposure

4. Analysis & interpretation: The final step is analysis to find out

i. Exposure rates among cases and controls to suspected factor

Table- The 2X2 contingency table constructed in observational studies

Diseased animals Non diseased Total

animals

Hypothesized risk factor is present

a b a+b

Hypothesized risk factor absent

c d c+d

Total
a+c b+d a+b+c+d=n

Exposure rates: Cases=a/(a+c) Controls= b/(b+d)

ii. Estimation of disease risk associated with exposure (Odds ratio):

Estimation of risk

𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎 𝑐

(Relative risk= = ÷ )
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎+𝑏 𝑐+𝑑

 (Relative risk is defined as the ratio between the incidence of disease among exposed
persons and incidence among non-exposed.)

Page 5 of 12
Odds ratios

 Relative risk cannot be calculated in case control studies because the rates of disease in
the exposed and unexposed groups are unknown.

 From a case control study, we can derive what is known as Odds ratio which is a measure
of the strength of the association between risk factor and outcome.

𝑎𝑑
Odds ratio =
𝑏𝑐

 Odds ratio is calculated as the ratio between the odds of disease in exposed animals and
odds of disease in unexposed animals.

 Odds ratio is a measure of association between an exposure and an outcome.

 Odds is the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event
will not occur.

 The odds ratio is interpreted exactly the same as relative risk and has an advantage over
the relative risk in that it may be used to measure the strength of association
irrespective of the sampling method used. It is also known as the cross-product ratio.

Cohort study

 Cohort study is also referred to as follow-up study, prospective study and incidence.

 Cohort study means looking forwards.

 A group exposed to factors is compared with a group not exposed to factors with respect
to development of disease.

 It is then possible to calculate the level of risk of developing disease in relation to

exposure to the hypothesized causal factor.

 It is then possible to calculate the incidence rate.

 In this study, characteristics or factors used to define a population are called maneuver,
those possessing them are called cohorts (those who share a common characteristic).

 This study is usually undertaken to either accept or reject a hypothesis. Here the
hypothesis formulated by the cross-sectional or the case-control study is tested as
additional evidence.

Page 6 of 12
  The important features of this study are,

o The cohorts are identified prior to the appearance of disease under investigation.

o The study group i.e. the case cohorts and control cohorts are observed over a
period of time to determine the frequency of a disease among them.

o The study proceeds forward from cause to effect.

Indications for cohort study

• When there is good evidence of an association between exposure and the disease,
this is evidenced by cross sectional and case control studies.

• When exposure is rare and incidence is high among exposed.

• When ample funds are available.

The following facts should be considered while selecting cohorts

• The cohort must be free from disease when the study is undertaken.

• Both groups should be susceptible to the disease. Example: Persons of 35 and above
years of age should be selected for lung cancer study.

• Both groups should be comparable.

• The diagnostic criteria to be used must be well defined.

Elements of cohort study

1. Selection of study subject

2. Obtaining data on exposure

3. Selection of comparison groups

4. Follow up

5. Analysis: the data are analyzed in terms of

i. Incidence rate
𝑎 𝑐
Exposed = , Unexposed =
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)

Page 7 of 12
ii. Estimation of risk

 Having calculated the incidence rates, the next step is to estimate the risk of outcome in
the exposed and non-exposed cohorts. This is done in terms of two well-known indices

A. Relative risk

 Relative risk is the ratio of incidence of the disease (or death) among exposed and the
incidence among non-exposed.

𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 (𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ)𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑

Relative risk =
𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒(𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ) 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑜𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑

𝑎 𝑐
= ÷
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)

 It is the direct measure of strength of the association between suspected cause and effect.

B. Attributable risk (AR)

 Attributable risk is the difference in incidence rates of disease between an exposed group
and non-exposed group.

 Attributable risk = Incidence of disease rate among exposed – Incidence of disease rate
among non-exposed.
𝑎 𝑐
 Attributable risk = -
(𝑎+𝑏) (𝑐+𝑑)

 Attributable risk indicates to what extent the disease under study can be attributed to the
exposure.

 Attributable risk indicates to the extent to which the incidence in exposed animals would
be reduced if they had not been exposed to risk factors, assuming that the risk factor is
causal.

 Attributable Fraction (AF) = It is the amount of disease in exposed animals due to some
specific factor.

𝐴𝑅 𝑅𝑅−1
 Attributable Fraction = =
𝑎/(𝑎+𝑏) 𝑅𝑅

Page 8 of 12
3. Experimental epidemiology

 The experimental epidemiologist will observe and analyze data by conducting

experiments.

 The epidemiologist will allot animals into different groups and can alter the factors
associated with the groups (epidemiologist is having control over the groups).

 Most of the research activities in Veterinary field deal with experimental observations
compared to the descriptive observations made in natural cases in human medicine.

 Experimental or intervention studies are similar in approach to cohort studies excepting

that the conditions in which study is carried out are under the direct control of the
investigator.

 The aim of experimental studies is to provide scientific proof of etiological factors and
provide a method of measuring the effectiveness and efficiency of health services for the
prevention, control and treatment of disease.

 Experimental studies are of two types,

 Randomized control trials

 Non randomized trials

Randomized controlled trials and non-randomized trials

Randomized controlled trials

 It involves process of random allocation.

 The basic steps in conducting a randomized control trials include the following,

o Drawing up a protocol

o Selecting reference and experimental

o Randomization

o Manipulation

o Follow up

o Assessment

Page 9 of 12
Non-randomized trials

 The approach is sophisticated in randomized controlled trials, it is rather crude in non-

randomized trials.

 As there is no randomization in non-experimental trials, the degree of comparability will

be low and the chances of a spurious result higher than where randomization had taken
place.

4. Theoretical epidemiology

 Division of epidemiology that studies and uses mathematical models in order to establish
prediction on occurrence of disease or health states, to better understand epidemiologic
mechanisms, and to test hypotheses concerning these mechanisms.

 The models are so designed as to mimic the real epidemiological situations as existing
under conditions of farms or flocks.

 The models essentially need to be designed on a cost effective basis and should provide
more alternatives than one to manage a problem.

 Example: Use of the Reed-Frost model to study transmission of rabies in a fox

population.

 Model of mastitis in dairy herds to investigate biologic and economic results from
different control strategies.

 Theoretical studies use mathematical models to mimic the reality or simulate field
conditions.

 Theoretical epidemiologic models are highly dependent upon the quality of information
used in their elaboration.

Page 10 of 12
5. Molecular epidemiology

 Molecular epidemiology has recently been defined as “a science that focuses on the
contribution of potential genetic and environmental risk factors, identified at the
molecular level, to the etiology, distribution and prevention of disease within herd/flock
and across populations.”

 The term “molecular epidemiology” comprises of two words, the first word molecular
refers to the analysis of molecules, usually meaning nucleic acids and proteins while
epidemiology means study of disease, its determinants in population.

 Therefore, molecular epidemiology is the analysis of nucleic acids and proteins in the
study of health and disease determinants in a population or in other words it is study of
diseases in a population utilizing methods of molecular characterization of etiological
agents or of the pathological changes induced by them.

 The methods include peptide mapping, nucleic acid finger printing and hybridization,
restriction enzyme analysis, monoclonal antibodies, PCR, etc.

 These techniques help in studying the minute genetic and antigenic differences between
viruses, bacteria and other microorganisms at a higher level of discriminations.

 Its ultimate purpose is to prevent morbidity and mortality.

Objectives of molecular epidemiology

 The objectives of molecular epidemiology are quite broad and include,

o Descriptive and analytical studies to evaluate host/environmental interactions in

disease.

o The development of prevention strategies for the control of bacterial, parasitic and
viral diseases through molecular diagnosis.

o The prevention of non-infectious diseases and genetic disorders by assessing risk

and identifying susceptible individuals through genetic screening.

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6. Serological epidemiology

 Term used sometime to designate an epidemiologic study based on analysis of serum

collected on a sample from a population.

 It is concerned with serological methodologies utilized for investigation of diseases.

 Serology is used to evaluate the levels of exposure to infectious agents and to define the
nature of cellular and humoral responses of populations.

 It is the most common and valuable approach to study infectious diseases in masses.

 Example: Many descriptive studies dealing with infectious diseases are done by
searching for antibodies in the serum (bovine viral leucosis, bovine viral diarrhea).

Page 12 of 12
 National and International Regulations on Livestock Diseases
(Dr. S S Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 10.09.2020)

NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS REGULATING ANIMAL

DISEASES

NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (INDIA)

1. ICAR- National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases(NIHSAD), Bhopal

 NIHSAD of ICAR is a premier institute of India for research on exotic and emerging
pathogens of animals.

 It came to existence on August 8th , 2014 as an independent institute under ICAR from its
original status as High Security Animal Disease Laboratory (HSADL), , a regional station
of Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI), Izatnagar.

 The institute has contributed significantly by detecting many animal diseases of exotic
origin and preventing them from entering our country.

 The institute has a BSL-3+ biocontainment facility having a laboratory wing and an
animal wing.

 The Mandate of NIHSAD:

 Basic and strategic research on exotic, emerging and re-emerging animal diseases.

 Biorisk management and capacity building in the areas of biosafety, biosecurity

and bio-containment for handling high risk pathogens.

 The major objectives of the institute include:

 To carry out basic & applied research on exotic, emerging and re-emerging
diseases of animals.

 To develop competency for diagnosis & control of exotic/emerging diseases of

animals.

 To create & update repository and data-bank on exotic/emerging pathogens

 To develop skills in biorisk management & train manpower in the areas of

biosafety, biosecurity and biocontainment.

Page 1 of 9
2. ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics
(NIVEDI), Bengaluru

 All India Coordinated Research Project on Animal Disease Monitoring and

Surveillance (AICRP on ADMAS), 1987 …upgraded to…..Project Directorate
on Animal Disease Monitoring and Surveillance (PD_ADMAS) on 1st April 2000
(9th Plan)…..upgraded to……National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and
Disease Informatics (NIVEDI) from October, 2013 (12th Plan).

 National Animal Disease Referral Expert System (NADRES) is developed by NIVEDI.

 NIVEDI carries out research on the following aspects of livestock health, including:

 Research and development on livestock diseases informatics.

 Understanding specific disease process for rational development of diagnostics

and strategic control technologies for livestock diseases including zoonosis.

 Biodiversity of pathogenic microbes.

 Development of systems for forecasting and forewarning of economically

important livestock diseases.

 Economics of livestock diseases and health care measures.

 Sero-monitoring of important livestock diseases based on sample frame.

 Investigation of endemic, emerging and re-emerging livestock diseases outbreaks

in respective area using innovative technologies.

 Participation / strengthening of national livestock serum bank.

 Participation in strengthening of microbial pathogen repository of PD_ADMAS.

 Utilization of forecasting models through NADRES for forecasting and

forewarning of livestock diseases

 Collaborative study on economic losses due to livestock disease and their control
measures.

 To identify and carry out the epidemiological surveillance of diseases/pathogens

of lab animals and wildlife.

Page 2 of 9
 3. Centre for Animal Disease Research and Diagnosis (CADRAD)

 Established at IVRI, Izatnagar on 10th March, 1986 with a view to provide health
care and diagnosis of animal diseases in the country.

 Since then this Centre has been efficiently carrying-out laboratory examination of
materials referred from all over the country.

 This Centre has multidisciplinary approach in diagnosis of animal diseases with

specialists of Virology, Bacteriology, Parasitology, Pathology, Toxicology and
Epidemiology.

4. National Animal Production and Health Information System (NAPHIS)

5. National Project on Rinderpest Surveillance and Monitoring (NPRSM).

 Started by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Ministry of

Agriculture, Government of India.

 This component has been renamed from the National Project on Rinderpest
Eradication (NPRE) to National Project on Rinderpest Surveillance and
Monitoring (NPRSM).

 India has been declared free from Rinderpest and Contagious Bovine Pleuro-
Pneumonia (CBPP) infection by OIE (World Organization for Animal Health) in
2006 and 2007, respectively.

6. National Informatics Centre (NIC)

 This agency collects data of diseases from all States of our country and supplies this
information to the concerned people as animal disease surveillance bulletin every month.

 It is a premier organization in the field of information technology and provides state of

art solutions to information management and decision support requirements of the
government and cooperative sector.

Page 3 of 9
International Organizations

1. World Organization for Animal Health (Office Internationale des epizootics – OIE), Paris
(France)

2. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Rome (Italy)

3. World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva (Switzerland)

1. World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)

 OIE is an intergovernmental organization created by the International Agreement of 25th

January 1924 signed by 28 countries.

 Its headquarter is Paris, France.

 Incursions of rinderpest in Europe and most notably the epizootic which occurred in
Belgium in 1920 led to the creation of OIE in 1924.

 In May 2003, the office became the World Organization for Animal Health but kept its
historical acronym OIE.

 As on 2018, OIE totaled 182 Member Countries.

 OIE maintains permanent relations with more than 20 other international organizations
including FAO, WHO, WTO, PAHO.

 OIE announced year 2011 as “World Veterinary Year”

Objectives of OIE:

1. To guarantee the transparency of animal disease status worldwide (Transparency)

 Each Member Country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it detects on
its territory.

 The OIE then disseminates the information to other countries, which can take the
necessary preventive action.

2. To collect, analyze and disseminate veterinary scientific information (Scientific

information)

1. The OIE collects and analyses the latest scientific information on animal disease
control and then made available to the Member Countries to help them to improve
the methods used to control and eradicate these diseases.

Page 4 of 9
 3. To provide expertise and provide international solidarity for the control of animal
diseases (International Solidarity)

 The OIE provides technical support to Member Countries requesting assistance

with animal disease control and eradication operations, including diseases
transmissible to humans.

4. To guarantee the sanitary safety of world trade by developing sanitary rules for
international trade in animals and animal products (Sanitary safety)

 The OIE develops normative documents relating to rules that Member Countries
can use to protect themselves from diseases, without setting up unjustified
sanitary barriers.

5. To improve the legal framework and resources of national Veterinary Services

(Promotion of Veterinary Services)

 The Veterinary Services and laboratories of developing and transition countries

are in urgent need of support to provide them with the necessary infrastructures,
resources and capacities that will enable their countries to benefit more full from
the WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement (SPS Agreement) while at the
same time providing greater protection for animal health and public health and
reducing the threat for other countries which are free of diseases.

6. To provide a better guarantee of the safety of food of animal origin and to promote
animal welfare through science based approach (New mandate for animal production
food safety and animal welfare)

 The OIE Member Countries have decided to provide a better guarantee of the
safety of food of animal origin by creating greater synergy between the activities
of the OIE and those of the Codex Alimentarius Commission.

 As a mark of the close relationship between animal health and animal welfare, the
OIE has become, at the request of its Member Countries, the leading international
organization for animal welfare.

OIE listed diseases

 The list is reviewed on a regular basis and in case of modifications adopted by the World
Assembly of Delegates at its annual General Session, the new list comes into force on 1 st
January of the following year.

 For year 2020, the list includes 117 animal diseases, infections and infestations.

 Some important examples are:

Page 5 of 9
  Multiple species diseases:- Anthrax, Brucellosis, FMD.

 Cattle diseases:- HS, Theileriosis

 Sheep & Goat diseases:- CCPP, Scrapie

 Swine diseases:- African swine fever, Transmissible gastroenteritis

 Equine diseases:- African horse sickness, Glander

 Avian diseases:- Marek’s disease, New castle disease

Reporting of Animal Diseases By OIE

 All OIE Member Countries have the obligation of all OIE listed diseases.

 There are three types of reports

 Emergency reports

 Monthly reports

 Yearly reports

2. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

 The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is a specialized
agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger and improve
nutrition and food security.

 Its Latin motto, fiat panis, translates to "let there be bread". It was founded in October
1945.

 The FAO is headquartered in Rome, Italy and maintains regional and field offices
around the world, operating in over 130 countries.

 FAO implements animal health programmes related to the establishment of best practices
in the prevention and control of priority diseases which threaten animal production,
public health and trade through its international and regional networks, animal health
projects and disseminating practical information.

Page 6 of 9
 3. World Health Organization (WHO)

 The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United

Nations responsible for international public health.

 The WHO Constitution, which establishes the agency's governing structure and
principles, states its main objective as "the attainment by all peoples of the highest
possible level of health”.

 It is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, with six semi-autonomous regional offices

and 150 field offices worldwide.

 The WHO was established by constitution on 7 April 1948, which is commemorated

as World Health Day.

 As of 2020, the WHO has 194 member states: all of the member states of the United
Nations except for Liechtenstein, plus the Cook Islands and Niue.

Acts for prevention of animal diseases

Animal Welfare Acts at national level

 Livestock Importation Act, 1898

 Import of animals is regulated according to the Livestock Importation Act (1898)

as amended by the Livestock Importation Act (1953).

 The Glanders and Farcy Act, 1899

 This was the first Central Act dealing with animal diseases.

 This Act was primarily meant for control and prevention of two dreaded diseases
of horses namely farcy and glanders, control of which was very important at that
time from defense as well as law and order point of view, as the large contingent
of horses was maintained by the Army and the Police.

 Dourine Act, 1910

 This Act provides for the prevention and control of dourine by empowering the
Inspectors/Veterinary practitioners appointed under this act, to castrate an entire
horse or an ass or to destroy a mare suffering from dourine, for searching infected
premises, their disinfections, etc; for determining compensation to the owner

Page 7 of 9
 according to procedure laid down in this Act to the extent of Rs. 250 and for
prohibiting the use of an affected animal for breeding; and for imposing fines in
the case of default.

 Model Byelaws

 For prohibiting the throwing of dead bodies of animals in the rivers under section
298 (2)-List I-I (H) of the U.P.

 Livestock Quarantine Rules, 1961

 Schedule i, ii and iii

 Cattle trespass (Amendment Act), 1921

 This deals with the problems of stray cattle and wild cattle.

 Drugs and Cosmetic Rules, 1945

 This Act deals with the manufacturing and selling of vaccines, antisera and selling
of diagnostic agents.

Animal Welfare Acts at state level

 Madras cattle Disease Act (1866)

 Madras Rinderpest Act (1940)

 Anthrax (Prevention and Control) Rules (1940)

 Tamil Nadu Animals and Birds in Urban areas (Control and Regulations) Act
(1997)

 Tamil Nadu Prevention of cruelty to Animals Act (1950):

 Banned killing of animals and birds in temples or their premises.

 The Mysore Sheep and Sheep Development Act (1973):

 In addition to various aspects of development of sheep and sheep products, it also

deals with the control of sheep diseases.

 Rajasthan Livestock improvement Act (1958)

 Mysore Livestock Improvement Act (1951)

Page 8 of 9
Animal Protection Acts

 Mischief

 Mischief is punishable under the sections 428 and 429 I.P.C.

 Bestiality

 Bestiality is punishable under Section 377 I.P.C.

 Prevention to the cruelty to Animals Act (1960)

 With the object of preventing infliction of unnecessary pain or sufferings on animals,

Prevention of cruelty to Animals Act, was originally passed in 1890, and was replaced by
the Act in 1960.

Phooka or doom dev

 Includes any process of introducing air or any substance into the female organ of a milch
animal with the object of drawing off from the animal any secretion of milk.

Cruelty to Animals (Section 11)

 Beats, kicks, over-drives, over-loads, tortures or otherwise treats any animal so as to

subject it to necessary pain or suffering or causes or being the owner, permits any animal
to be so treated.

 Employees in any work or labour any animal which by any reason of any disease,
infirmity, wound, sore or other cause, is unfit to be so employed, or being the owner,
permits any such unfit animal to be employed.

Indian Veterinary Council Act (1984)

 The Indian Veterinary Council Act presented by the Ministry of Law, and Company
Affairs was approved by the president of India on 18th August 1984, after which it is
known as “The Indian Veterinary Council Act” 1984.

 Object of IVC Act: This Act into the force with the object to regulate veterinary practice and
to establish the Veterinary Council of India, State Veterinary Councils which will maintain
the registered veterinary practitioners and will regulate all other matters related to them.

Page 9 of 9
 ANIMAL DISEASE FORECASTING
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat, Assistant Professor, PGIVER on 17.09.2020)

 The ability to detect outbreaks early is important to minimize morbidity and mortality
through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures.

 Forecasting is the monitoring of specific risk parameters helping to predict situations that
could lead to the occurrence of a given disease and its subsequent spread.

 The forecasting of disease helps to predict the course of disease, warn health care
workers and adopt control measures to prevent disease outbreaks.

 Forecasting is the process of making future predictions using past and present trends.

 Animal disease forecasting is a management system used to predict occurrence or

spread of disease and suitable methods to study disease using the epidemiological triangle
i.e. Pathogen, environment and host.

 The goal of a forecasting system is to predict the future course of the disease, giving
health care workers sufficient warning to deal with unexpectedly high or low cases and to
implement control measures to prevent disease outbreaks from happening in the first
place.

 In general epidemic forecasting is most useful when it predicts epidemics to 2-6 months
in advance; allowing strategies responses to be made when predicted diseases risk
increases.

Objectives of forecasting

1. To study modes of transmission and to understand how to prevent the spread of

epidemic diseases.

2. To monitor the effectiveness of disease control campaigns.

3. Emergency preparedness and disease management strategies.

4. To demonstrate knowledge of the epidemiology of diseases.

5. To study disease importance from public health point of view.

Page 1 of 9
Three components of animal disease forecasting and early warning systems

 Routine surveillance of the targeted disease and identification of measurable risk

indicators of emergence.

 Examination of the feasibility of their monitoring using existing data sources or

modelling the disease risk based on historical surveillance and contemporary
environmental data.

 Forecasting future risk through the use of predictive models and continued
epidemiological and environmental surveillance.

Early Warning

 Early warning is the rapid detection of the introduction of, or sudden increase in any
disease of livestock which has the potential of developing to epidemic proportions and/or
causing serious socio-economic consequences or public health concerns.

 It embraces all initiatives and is mainly based on disease surveillance, reporting and
epidemiological analysis.

Early warning initiatives:

 Major international organizations like FAO, OIE and WHO play lead role in developing
early warning and response systems to make early reporting of diseases easy so that
warning can be given to those who are likely to get affected by disease.

World Organization for Animal Health (OIE):

 In April 2006, it launched World Animal Health Information System and Database
(WAHIS & WAHID) are unique global animal health database in the field of animal
health information which offers all available data on animal diseases including zoonoses.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization)

 It has developed software like Transboundary Animal Disease Information System (TAD
info), Trans boundary Animal Diseases Simulator (TAD simulator) and Good
Emergency Management Practice (GEMP) to help in achieving its goals.

 FAO’s EWS EMPRESS Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRESS i) is a

web based application to support veterinary services by facilitating global and regional
disease information at national, regional and global level.

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World Health Organization (WHO)

 The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) examine and studies
diseases evaluate the risks and improve international capability to deal with them.

Some initiatives:

1. ProMED-mail: Founded in 1994, ProMED is among the first and the largest publicaly
available electronic, internet based emerging diseases and outbreak reporting systems in
the world which provides users with up-to-date information concerning infectious disease
outbreaks on a global scale.

2. Global early warning and response systems (GLEWS) is a joint system by WHO, FAO
and OIE with an overall objective to improve the early warning and response capacity to
animal disease threats of the three organizations (FAO, OIE and WHO) for the benefit of
the international community.

3. The International Food safety Authorities Network (INFOSAN) is joint programme

between FAO and WHO, functioning since 2004 to prevent, prepare and respond to food
safety events and emergencies at national and international levels.

4. The international health regulations (IHR 2005): these regulations serve to prevent,
protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of
diseases of public health importance in a way necessary interference with international
traffic and trade.

5. Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN): Established in 2000 to assist
the needy countries in initiating the most appropriate response to public health
emergencies of international importance.

6. The Global Framework for Transboundary Animal Diseases (GF-TADS): launched by

FAO and OIE to provide capacity building and to support strategic regional and national
cooperation for the establishment of programmes for the targeted control of certain TADs
based on their regional priorities.

7. Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases Operations (ECTAD): It was

launched by FAO within its EMPRESS programme in November, 2004, to operate as the
corporate centre for the design and delivery of FAO’s services as the Chief Veterinary
Officer of the organization.

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The components of an Early Warning System (EWS):

1. Disease surveillance

2. Developing a model

3. Disease forecasting and prediction

GIS: Geographical information System.

 It is a computer based data system for analysis and displaying digital geographical data in
vector (Point, lines and polygons) and grid (quadratic cells). These data and previous
disease can be used for prediction of diseases.

 GPS: is Global Positioning System is satellite based and radio navigation system
provides geo location and time information.

 Remote sensing is acquisition of information about an object without physically

touching it.

These global tools are the powerful and potential system for addressing important
veterinary health issues at the International, national and local levels.

Spatial analysis capabilities allow users to examine and display health data in new
and highly effective ways.

Disease Surveillance

 Disease surveillance should be an integral and key component of all government

veterinary services.

 This is important for

 Early warning of diseases

 Planning and monitoring of disease control programmes

 Provision of sound animal health advice to farmers

 Certification of export livestock and livestock products

 International reporting and proof of freedom from diseases

 It is particularly important for animal disease emergency preparedness.

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Passive Disease Surveillance

 Passive disease surveillance is the routine gathering of information on disease incidence

from sources such as request for assistance from farmers, reports from field veterinary
officers and livestock officers, submission of diagnostic specimens to laboratories and
results of laboratory investigations.

 Routine disease reports may also come from other sources such as abattoirs and livestock
markets.

Active Disease Surveillance

 Active disease surveillance requires purposeful and comprehensive searching for

evidence of disease in animal populations are free of specific diseases.

 The components of successful active disease surveillance programmes are:

 Close integration between the activities of field and lab veterinary services.

 Regular visits to farming communities.

 Participatory rural appraisal programmes.

 Utilization of disease information from all potential sources in the public and
private sector

 Gathering of ancillary information to support prioritization and decision making

on animal health programmes

 Periodic targeted serological surveys in animal populations.

 Epidemic livestock diseases are frequently spread by the movement of infected animals.

 In the active disease surveillance of such diseases, emphasis must be given to situations
where animals and people are on move.

 This includes livestock markets, livestock trading routes, border areas and situations such
as nomadism, transhumance and refugee movements from wars and civil strife.

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Empirical Simulation Modeling

 Simulation models can be used to forecast disease incidence accurately.

 These forecasts are of value in selecting suitable prophylactic measures.

 These models are not strictly mathematical models because they do not attempt to
analyze the dynamics of agents in life.

 Example: Forecasting the incidence of Fascioliosis.

 Two important climatic factors are responsible for the development of the parasite i.e.,

 Temperature above 10° C

 Presence of free water.

 This model simulate the progression of the disease in relation to changing climatic
conditions and so can be used to predict losses owing to fascioliosis.

Explanatory models

 These are the mathematical models that describe the dynamics (i.e. biological processes)
of parasites and host populations.

 Examples: Bovine Ostertagiosis

 The rate of development of parasite from one stage to next stage according to the
temperature that it experiences is estimated.

 The level of pasture contamination by infective larvae is predicted by simulating the

course of events experienced by eggs.

Monte Carlo Methods

 In many cases deterministic and stochastic models can be formulated for which no
analytical solution is known.

 Alternatively finding the solution may be extremely difficult or tedious.

 In such circumstances simulations methods can be undertaken.

 Since simulations studies attempt to mimic the physical process being modeled, they can
be very informative and are therefore are often preferred.

 In these methods, random process is simulated using random numbers in order to decide
whether or not an event takes place.

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  This is somewhat akin to gambling; hence the name Monte Carlo simulations.

Disease Forecasting in India

 In India, the function of surveillance and control of exotic as well as indigenous animal
disease is undertaken by Department of Animal Husbandry under the Ministry of
Agriculture (GOI).

 There is a wide network of 23,303 polyclinics, 27543 veterinary aid centres and 250
disease diagnostic labs and 26 vaccine producing units (19 under government and 7 under
private sector) through the country.

Animal Quarantine and Certification Services

 There are four quarantine stations at New Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata.

 These stations also provide export certificates of international standards for livestock and
products exported from India.

Disease Diagnostic Referral Laboratories

 These labs are situated at the following cities

1. Pune (Disease Investigation Lab)

2. Kolkata (Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Biological)

3. Bengaluru (Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Biological)

4. Jalandhar (Animal Health Institute)

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National Level facilities by the Indian Government:

1. National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)

1. Formerly, Central Malaria Bureau at kasauli, HP (1909) was renamed

Malaria Institute of India in 1938 and again in 1963 as National Institute
for Communicable Diseases & present name on 30.07.2009.

2. It mainly functions as provider of training, services and research in the

field of communicable diseases and their prevention and control in
country.

2. National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD), Bhopal

 It has been authorized by the Government to diagnose and suggest suitable control
measures to exotic and emerging animal diseases which gain entry into the country
through international borders.

 It is safe for handling high risk (risk group 4) and exotic animal pathogens like HPAI.

 It generates base line data regarding each disease prevalent in country.

3. National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics (NIVEDI)

 Since its conception, PD-ADMAS has played a crucial role in up gradation of animal
disease surveillance in India.

 It has played a major role in Rinderpest eradication and is now targeting other important
livestock diseases like PPR, Brucellosis, Swine flu, Swine fever, anthrax etc.

 It has developed an innovative india.admas Epitrak epidemiology software which is

dynamic and interactive livestock disease relational database supported by Geographic
Information System (GIS).

 It has created a national directory of 6.39 lakh villages for critical epidemiological
sampling frames.

 It has envisaged “Vision 2030” to attain freedom from 15 economically important

diseases along with focusing on food safety and income security through sustainable
livestock health and economics by using tools of epidemiological surveillance (PD-
AMAS Vision 2030).

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Various Schemes/Projects by the GOI to strengthen Disease Surveillance in India

1. National Animal Disease Referral Expert System (NADRES)

 NADRES, a web based dynamic and interactive livestock disease rational database, was a
combined outcome of a project on weather based animal disease forecast (WB-ADF) supported
by GIS for the national level disease forecasting by passive surveillance using data generated by
state animal husbandry and other departments and the ‘Animal Health Information System
through Disease Monitoring and Surveillance (AHIS-DMS) which generated active surveillance
data through village surveys.

 It was formally launched by NIVEDI for national level disease forecasting for the first time in the
country.

 It is devoted especially to forecast 15 major livestock diseases.

 The disease situation can be predicted two months in advance at district level so that
preventive measures can be taken well in time by concerned authorities.

2. The National Animal Disease Reporting System (NADRS)

 It is a system of disease reporting through SMS, email and web based interface.

 It links block, district and state with a central agency for better monitoring and control of
transboundary diseases.

 This programme will enable veterinary authorities to closely monitor, control and eradicate
animal diseases, particularly those of a trans boundary nature.

 NADRS is being implemented by the DADF during 2010-11 through the NIC.

 Around 143 animal diseases scheduled in the Prevention and Control of Infectious and
Contagious Diseases in Animals Act, 2009 are included in this reporting system.

3. Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (ISDP)

 The ISDP is a disease surveillance scheme was initiated by the World Bank under Ministry of
Health and Family Affairs.

 It is a major National Health Programme under National Health Mission for all States & UTs with
key objective to strengthen/ maintain decentralized based IT enabled disease surveillance system
for epidemic prone diseases to monitor disease trends and to detect and respond to outbreaks in
early rising phase through trained Rapid Response Team (RRTs).

 A Central Disease Surveillance Unit and a State Surveillance Unit in each state is set up under the
project to collect and analyze relevant data.

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 Ecology of Disease
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 24.09.2020)

 The study of diseases in populations requires an understanding of the relationships

between organisms (hosts and agents) and their environment.

 These relationships govern the spatial and temporal occurrence of disease.

1. Ecology

 Ecology is the branch of biology which deals with the interaction between various forms
of living beings and their macro environments and with the factors associated with
environmental scattering of populations.

 The study of animals and plants in relation to their habits and habitation is ecology.

 The study of a disease’s ecology (also termed as natural history) is frequently a part of
epidemiological investigations.

 This has two objectives:

a. An increase in the understanding of pathogenesis, maintenance and transmission

of infectious agents of disease.

b. The use of knowledge of a disease’s ecology to predict when and where a disease
may occur, and to enable the development of suitable control techniques.

2. Population ecology

 It deals with growth patterns of populations’ measures statistically death and birth rates
and factors which influence them.

 Breeding efficiency, and fertility and pregnancy rates are important parameters of
population ecology.

3. Applied ecology

 Applied ecology has assumed special importance in view of rapid industrialization and
mass migration of populations.

 Radiation hazards, depletion of ozone layer and pollution of the atmosphere by gases are
all parts of applied ecology.

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4. Biotope

 The smallest spatial unit or geographical area providing uniform conditions of life is
termed biotope.

 Example: Pond, a cave.

 An organism’s biotype, therefore describes its location (It is like address of an organism).

 For example: Caeca of chicken for coccidian or an area of poorly drained land for
Fasciola hepatica infection of cattle or rat burrow for Leptospira spp.

5. Biotic community or Biocenosis

 The Aggregation of all living species (animals and plants) inhabiting an environment
(biotype, habitat) is called a biotic community or biocenosis.

 Biocenosis is the totality of living populations in an ecosystem.

 Example: all organisms and microorganisms living in a pond.

 The biotope is constituted of non-living elements and vegetation. With animals (the
biocenosis), it forms the ecosystem.

6. Ecosystem

 Ecosystem is an area which is characterized by it’s physical and climatic features as well
as by animals and plants occupy them. The unique interacting complex is called an
ecosystem.

 Components of ecosystem are

o Biotope

o Biocenosis /biotic community

 An ecosystem is an ecological unit consisting of both biotic and abiotic factors of

environment. It represents an association of living beings and their habitat.

 Example: A pool, a forest, an individual (for a necessary parasite) represents three

different ecosystems.

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Trophic levels in ecosystem

 Each successive level of nourishment as represented by links of food chain is known as

trophic level.

Ecological Pyramids

 The different modes of nutrition that are found in animals occupying different trophic
levels can be illustrated by constructing ecological pyramids.

 There are three types of pyramids

o Pyramids of numbers

o Pyramid of energy

o Pyramid of biomass

Pyramids of numbers

 This illustrates the population density relationships within and between

trophic levels.

 The number of individuals decreased at each trophic level due to

differences in population growth and also due to predation.

Pyramid of energy

 Here there is relationship between different trophic levels.

Pyramid of biomass

 Biomass means total amount of living material.

7. Basic ecological concepts

 Two major factors that determine the occurrence of disease are

o Distribution

o Size of animal populations

 The distribution of animal population depends on the distribution of suitable food;

 The size of animal populations depends on availability of food and mates, and species
breeding potential.

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7.1 The distribution of populations

7.1.1 Vegetational zones

Koppen’s system of classification of climate based on de Candolle’s plant groups:

De Candolle’s Postulated plant Formation Koppen’s climatic

Plant group requirements division

Megatherms Continuous high temp. & Tropical rain forests A (rainy with no
(Most heat) abundant moisture winter)

Xerophiles Tolerate drought, need Hot desert B (dry)

(dry loving) minimum hot season

Mesotherms Moderate temp. & moisture Temperate deciduous C (rainy climates with
(middle heat) forest severe winters)

Microtherms Less heat & moisture, Boreal forest D (rainy climates with
(little heat) tolerate long cold winters severe winters)

Hekistotherms Tolerate polar regions Tundra E (polar climates with

(least heat) beyond tree line no warm season)

7.1.2 Biomes

 It is a large well differentiated and climatically uniform geographical region.

 Several ecosystem join together to form biome. The earth can be divided into 9
terrestrial biomes which include tundra, deserts, grasslands, savanna & tropical
forests.

7.1.3 Convergent evolution

 It states that animals of different ancestral stock evolve similar features to suit
similar environments.

 For example: The distribution of Rift valley fever (a virus disease of sheep and
cattle) is associated with the wetter African ecological zones. This may be related
to abundance of mosquito vectors in these zones.

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7.2 Regulation of Population size

7.2.1 The ‘balance of nature’

 Populations’ growth reaches a certain size and then stops growing.

 The population becomes stable and balanced, with the rate of reproduction equaling the
death rate.

7.2.2 Control of population size by competition

 Populations are brought into balance by competition for the resources of habitat, the most
common of which is food.

 Competition therefore is density-dependent. Example: Reproduction of Ascaris species is

density dependent.

7.2.3 Dispersal

 In some parts of the world, there may be dramatic seasonal variations in climate.

 An Australian species grasshopper over winters in its egg. The warmth of the
spring causes the eggs to hatch.

 The adults that develop then lay eggs as long as the weather is wet. A drought
kills all of the adults. This is not density-dependent; it occurs long before
competition occurs.

 Such insects survive only by dispersal over large areas to different climates so
that at least some are in an area that is wet.

7.2.4 Predation

 Predation has an obvious possible role in controlling the size of populations, but
most of the evidence suggests that it is not true for large animals because
predators take only sick and weak and young animals.

 Small predators, notably of insects, are efficient controllers of populations.

Predators have been used to control insect pests.

7.2.5 Infectious disease

 Infectious diseases are determining and regulating the size of population.

Example: Epidemics.

 Infectious agent can be divided into two groups according to their generation
dynamics:

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  Microparasites

 Macroparasites

 Microparasites: Multiply directly when inside the host increasing the level of
parasitism. Example: viruses, bacteria and protozoa.

 Macroparasites: Do not increase the level of parasitism, grow in the host but
multiply by producing infective stages which are released from the host to new
infective hosts. Example: Helminthes and arthropods.

7.2.6 Home range:

 Certain animals have natural restriction to the area over which they roam, i.e., is
their home range.

 They may control the population and has implications for the transmission of
infectious diseases.

 For example: Rats are the maintenance hosts of the rickettsial disease scrub
typhus. Trombiculid mites are the vectors; they parasitize mammals and birds.

 The small home range of the rats results in mite's life cycle being restricted to
small areas, called ‘mite islands’. When mites are affected with the rickettsia,
localized endemic areas of scrub typhus, associated with mite islands, occur.

 Extension of the infection occurs only by dispersal of infected mites by wider-

ranging incidental hosts such as birds and man, in whom the infection causes
serious diseases.

7.2.7 Territoriality

 The part of animal’s home range that it defends aggressively from invaders is the
animals territory. This behavioral response is territoriality.

 Territoriality may control the population.

 The size of territory varies for same and different species.

7.2.8 Social dominance

 A social hierarchy called the ‘peck order’ was discovered among birds in 1920’s.

 Some gregarious species, especially rodents, inhabit favorable places.

 When crowding occurs, the socially weaker animals are forced out. This may be a
population control mechanism.

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7.2.9 The Wynne-Edwards hypothesis

 The Abeerdin zoologist, Wynne-Edwards, suggested that population control was

the main purpose of group behavior, which sometimes causes physiological stress.

 The crowding of rats results in associated fighting, cannibalism and reduced

fecundity.

 Such experimentally stressed animals and those that are naturally stressed have
hypertrophied adrenals, indicative of the general adaption syndrome.

 Wynne-Edwards suggested that this ‘head count’ of the population evoked, by

feedback, the general adaptation syndrome and controlled reproduction.

 Because of some problems in it, this theory is not fashionable today.

7.2.10 The implications of disease occurrence of the distribution and control of populations

 The distribution, the home range of animals, and other behavioral activities of
hosts of infectious agents affect the latter’s transmission.

 Example: Vulpine rabies: The infection is maintained in Europe in foxes. The

animals may be solitary, paired or a part of a family unit.

 Similarly, rabid foxes behavior depends on the type of rabies that they display;
foxes with dumb rabies may seek a solitary existence, whereas furious rabies may
cause foxes to approach other animals readily.

 Increase in home range also may increase spread of infection.

8. Niche

 “The struggle of a species against other competitive fauna and environmental factors for
its survival leads it to acquire a distinct spatial distribution in nature which is called
niche”.

 It denotes the place and functional role of a species within a biocenosis or ecosystem.

 As such it acts as a primary source for initiation of an infectious process.

 If the biotope of an organism is its address, then the niche reflects the position of
profession mentioned in the address.

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8.1 Lotka-Volterra equations

 Logistic equation for each species to find the relative size of each population
produces pair of equations that were derived independently in us by Lotka (1925)
and in Italy by Volterra (1931).

 These equations are therefore called Lotka-Volterra equations. They are derived
for varying degree of competition. The conclusion drawn from these equations is
fundamental importance of ecology.

 It is that the coexistence of two strongly competing species is impossible”.

Coexistence is possible only if competition is weak. This led to the principle of
competitive exclusion.

 That competition will exclude all but one species from a particular position
defined by an animal’s feeding habits, physiology, mechanical habits and
behavior. This position is ‘animal’s niche’. The principle of competitive exclusion
can be summarized as “one species, one niche”.

8.2 Sympatric species

 Species found in the same country or area. Avoidance of competition is usual in

sympatric species.

 Example: Giraffes, Thompson’s gazelles and wild beests are sympatric species in East
Africa.

 They avoid competition for food: The giraffe, with its long neck, feeds high up; the
gazella and wild beest, although of similar stature, eat differently: the gazella eats ground
hugging leaves, while the wildbeest eats side shoots.

8.3 Divergence of character or character displacement

 “Character must diverge when closely related species live in the same region.”

 Example: when two species of Paramecium, are kept in the same test tube, one species
has changed its mode of living to inhabit only the top half of the test tube, while the other
species had moved to the bottom of the tube, thus avoiding competition.

8.4 Some examples of niches relating to disease

8.4.1 Louse infestations

 Lice tend to be host-species-specific; pig lice do not live on man or dogs, and vice-versa.
By being host-specific, species of lice avoid competition: they have their own niche.

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8.4.2 Intracellular parasitism

 Intracellular parasites occupy a niche in cells. They include all viruses, some bacteria
(e.g., Brucella spp., Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rickettsiae) and some protozoa (e.g.,
Babesia spp).

8.4.3 Epidemiological interference

 Studies in India have shown that the presence, in a human community, of one type of
respiratory adenovirus prevents infection with other types even though the latter are
common in surrounding communities.

 This is because the first type occupies a niche (Lower respiratory tract), which therefore
cannot be filled by other agents.

 This phenomenon is epidemiological interference.

9. The relation between different types of Animals and Plants

 A particular biome contains different types of animals and plants. Some are large, others
are small. Reasons for these variations have been suggested by ecological studies.

9.1 Food chains

 Elton noted what the foxes ate in summer and the winter. In summer, the foxes ate birds.
The birds ate berries, tundra, leaves and insect. The insect also eat leaves. Thus Elton
noted that there was food chain.

9.2 The size of animals and food webs

 Animals fed at different levels in the food chain. These levels are termed as trophic
levels.

 Moving down the food chain (e.g., from foxes to insects), the animals were abundant.
There were more birds than foxes, and more insects than birds.

9.3 The significance of food webs to disease transmission

 Helminth diseases for which there definitive and intermediate hosts, are frequently
transmitted via food webs.

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  Example:

 The tapeworm, Echinococcus granulosus, includes the sheep as an intermediate host and
the dog as definitive host.

 The cysts in the liver and lungs of the intermediate host are transmitted to dogs when the
latter eat sheep offal; hence the recommendations that raw sheep offal should not be fed
to dogs.

10. Ecosystem

 “An association of a biocenosis with the physical environment including the soil is called
an ecosystem.”

 It represents an association of living beings and their habitat.

10.1 Types of ecosystems

 Three types of ecosystem can be identified according to their origin:

10.1.1 Autochthonous ecosystems

 ‘Autochthonous’ derives from the Greek

 autos=‘oneself’ or ‘itself’

 chthon=‘the earth’ or ‘the land’

 ous= ‘deriving from’

 Hence, an autochthonous ecosystem is one ‘coming from the land itself.’

 Example such as tropical rain forests and deserts.

10.1.2 Anthropurgic ecosystems

 ‘Anthropurgic’ is derived from Greek

 anthropos= ‘man’

 erg= ‘to work at, to create, to produce’.

 An anthropurgic ecosystem is one created by man (strictly it can also mean ‘creating
man’.)

 Examples are those found in cultivated pastures and towns.

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10.1.3 Synanthropic ecosystems

 Synanthropic originates from Greek

 syn= long with, together with

 anthropos=man

 A synanthropic ecosystem is one that is in contact with man.

 Example: Rubbish tip, harbouring a variety of vermin.

 Synanthropic ecosystems facilitate the transmission of zoonotic infections from their

lower animal hosts to man.

Ecological climax, Ecological Interfaces and Ecological Mosaics:

10.1 Ecological climax

 “An ecological climax traditionally is said to have occurred when plants, animals,
microbes, soil and macroclimate have evolved to a stable, balanced relationship”.

 Characteristically, when infections are present, they too are stable and therefore are
usually endemic. Also, the balance between host and parasite usually results in inapparent
infections. Such stable situations can be disrupted frequently by man resulting in
epidemics.

 Example: Blue tongue, a virus disease of sheep, was recognized only after the
importation of European breeds of sheep into South Africa towards the end of 19 th
century.

 The virus however, was present in indigenous sheep before that time, but was part of an
ecological climax in which it produced only inapparent infections. The importation of
exotic sheep represented a disturbance of the stable climax.

 The importation of exotic sheep represented a disturbance of a stable climax.

 A climax involving endemic infections agents indicates that all the factors for
maintenance and transmission of the agent are present.

 Example: The seasonal periodicity of FMD in South America may be as a result of

seasonal increases in the size of susceptible cattle population when animals are brought
into endemic area for fattening.

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10.2 Ecological interfaces

 “An ecological interface is a junction of two ecosystems.” Infectious diseases can be

transmitted across these interfaces.

 Example: Transmission of yellow fever- An arboviral disease of man.

 The virus is maintained in apes in Africa in an autochthonous forest ecosystem in

the forest canopy. The canopy dwelling mosquito, Aedes africans- transmits virus
between apes.

 The mosquito, Aedes simpsoni- bridges the interface between the autochthonous
forest ecosystem and anthropurgic cultivated savannahs (transmits disease
between apes and man)

 Finally the urban mosquito, Aedes aegypti- can maintain an urban cycle in man
(transmit virus between men).

 People who enter forests may also contract the infection from A. africanus.

10.3 Ecological mosaics

 “An ecological mosaic is a modified patch of vegetation created by man, within a biome
that has reached a climax”.

 Infection may spread from wild animals to man in such circumstances.

 Example:

 Clearing of forest encourages, a close cover of weeds on the ground creating conditions
that are favorable for the incursions of field rats with mites infected with scrub typhus
which form mite islands and that local areas become endemic for scrub typhus.

 Example:

 The helminth infection, loiasis, is transmitted by arthropods between man, living in small
forest clearings, and canopy dwelling monkeys.

 However, transmission does not always occur in the mosaics because suitable vector may
not be available.

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 11. Landscape Epidemiology (Medical Ecology, Horizontal Epidemiology, Medical
Geography)

 “The study of diseases in relation to the ecosystems in which they are found is landscape
epidemiology”.

 Investigations are frequently qualitative, involving the study of the ecological factors that
affect the occurrence, maintenance and, in the case of infectious agents, transmission of
disease.

 It involves application of the ecological concepts.

 This contrasts with the quantitative associations between specific diseases and the
hypothesized factors- sometimes termed ‘Vertical epidemiology’.

11.1 Nidi

 The Nidus (Pl. Nidi) is small foci which is the natural home of causative organism,
therefore of infection/disease.

 Nidality: (natural nidality) Process by which a pathogen can persist in well-defined nidi
associated with specific climatic, geographic, and ecological conditions. Example:
Nidality of plague in Iran.

 For some pathogens, certain regions offer climatic and ecological conditions favorable to
one or more species acting as reservoir or vector. Disease occurrence may then be
dependant on availability of these reservoirs or vectors. For example: Rocky Mountain
spotted fever, a rickettsial disease of rodents transmitted by ticks, limited to specific areas
of North America.

 Nidus (of a disease): (Focus of a disease, natural focus of a disease, natural environment
of a disease, nosogenic territory).

 Geographical location where the environment offers favourable conditions leading to

occurrence, maintenance and propagation of disease.

 Example: Nidi of plague in Iran.

11.2 Nosogenic territory

 An area that has ecological, social and environmental conditions that can support a
disease is a nosogenic territory.

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11.3 Nosoarea

 Nosoarea is a nosogenic territory in which a disease is present.

 Example: Britain is a nosogenic territory for rabies and FMD, but is not a nosoarea for
these diseases, because the microbes are prevented from entering the country by
quarantine of imported animals.

11.4 Objectives of landscape epidemiology

 Landscape epidemiology is founded on the concept that if the nidality of disease is based
on ecological factors then

a. A study of ecosystems enables predictions to be made about the occurrence of

disease and

b. Facilities the development of appropriate control strategies.

 Example: Leptospirosis

a. It is known that the prevalence of Leptospira, serovar ballum, in the brown rat is
density dependent; an estimation of the number of rats inhabiting an area enables
a prediction of the prevalence of serovar ballum infections.

b. If inspection of an area reveals a large number of burrows and evidence of recent

rat activity, it is likely that the area constitutes a reservoir of infection for serovar
ballum.

c. If the rubbish damp is well managed then the rat population is likely to be small,
and any rats present are unlikely to constitute a maintenance of population for this
leptospiral serovar.

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Measures and Patterns of disease occurrence
(Dr. Surendra Singh Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER on 01.10.2020)

Patterns of disease occurrence

 When a disease occurrence described in terms of clustering in place and time, then the
disease occurs in following patterns:

 Endemic

 Epidemic

 Pandemic

 Sporadic

1. Endemic (enzootic)

 The usual frequency of occurrence of a disease in a population.

 The constant presence of disease in population.

 Endemic disease: Disease clinically expressed or not, constantly present in a population

in a given reason.

a. Example: In Humans: Malaria in tropical area.

b. In animals: Bovine TB.

 Endemic disease represents clustering of disease event in place but not in time.

 Depending upon the percentage of population affected, the degree of endemicity may be:

c. Holo-endemic – most of the individuals/ animals affected

d. Hyper-endemic – high proportion of animals affected

e. Meso-endemic – a moderate proportion of animals affected

f. Hypo- endemic- a relatively small proportion of animals affected.

Page 1 of 11
 2. Epidemic
 An epidemic is an occurrence of an infectious or non-infectious disease to a level in
excess of the expected level.
 It is occurrence of a disease or any other health related event affecting a number of
individuals in clear excess of what would be expected for a specific region and period of
time.
 Epidemic is a relative term and denotes clustering of disease in both place and time.
 Epidemicity represents an unstable host-agent relationship.
 Epidemic may be
i. Point epidemic- originates from a common source and occurs within an incubation
period.
ii. Propagating epidemic – primary cases excrete the infectious agent to infect the
susceptible individual constituting secondary cases.

Outbreak
 An outbreak is the occurrence of cases of an illness or specific health related behaviour or
event, clearly in excess of normal expectancy in a community in a specified time period.
 An outbreak is limited or localized to a village, town or close institution (farm).
 However, when the magnitude could involve wider geographic areas, even beyond one
district, it is called an epidemic.

3. Pandemic

 A large scale epidemic usually involving several countries or even continents.

 Pandemicity represents clustering of disease events in time but not in place.

 Serious human pandemics have included plague in the middle ages, cholera in the 19 th
century, and influenza soon after the First World War.

4. Sporadic

 Diseases showing scattered (uneven) occurrence with no temporal or spatial clustering of

cases are called sporadic diseases.

 A sporadic outbreak of diseases is one that occurs irregularly and haphazardly.

Page 2 of 11
  Sporadic can indicate either a single case or a cluster of cases of a disease or infection
(without obvious disease) that is not normally present in area.

5. Exotic

 Those diseases which have entered a country from foreign lands are called exotic.

 Transmissible disease that is not present in the country or region of interest.

 Example: Bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis for Denmark; fox rabies for Britain.

6. Exzootic

 A disease which is has been eliminated or stamped out from a country is known as an
exzootic disease.

 Dourine in horses is such disease.

Epinortic

 The term occasionally used in English publications to designate an epidemic in a

population of birds.

7. Trends in temporal distribution of disease

 The temporal changes and fluctuations in disease occurrence can be classified into

7.1 Short term trends

 The best known short term fluctuation in the occurrence of a disease is an epidemic.

 Types of epidemics

a. Common source epidemics

i. Common source, single exposure epidemics:

Page 3 of 11
  These are also known as “point source” epidemics. Eg. An epidemic of food poisoning.

ii. Common source, continuous or repeated exposure

 Sometimes the exposure from the same source may be prolonged continuous, repeated or
intermittent not necessarily at the same time or place.

 A well of the contaminated water or a nationally distributed brand of vaccine or food

could result in similar outbreaks.

b. Propagated epidemics

 A propagated epidemic is most often of infectious origin and results from person to
person transmission of an infectious agent (e.g., epidemics of hepatitis and polio).

7.2 Periodic trend

A. Seasonal trend

 A seasonal trend is a special case of cyclic trend, where the periodic fluctuations in
disease incidence are related to particular seasons.

 Fluctuations may be caused by changes in host density, management practices, and

survival of infectious agent, vector dynamics and other ecological factors.

B. Cyclical trends

 Cyclical trends are associated with regular, periodic fluctuations in the level of disease
occurrence.

 They are associated with periodic changes in the size of the susceptible host population
and or effective contact, and may produce recurrent epidemics or endemic pulsations.

 Eg. Automobile accidents in US are more frequent on weekends, especially Saturdays.

7.3 Long term trends (Secular trend)

 Secular trends occur over a long period of time and represent a long term interaction
between host and parasite.

 If a balance occurs, then a stable, endemic level of disease is maintained if the interaction
is biased to the host, then there is gradual decrease in disease occurrence and if the
interaction is biased to the parasite, there is gradual increase in disease occurrence.

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  Upwards trends may also result from the intervention of man and changing human habits.
Eg. Coronary heart disease.

8. Spatial trends in disease occurrence

 An epidemic represents not only the clustering of cases over a period of time, but
clustering of cases in defined area.

 An infectious disease that propagates through a population results in a contagious spatial

pattern, in contrast to sporadic outbreaks, which are distributed randomly.

 These two patterns can be compared with regular spatial occurrence.

 Contagious can also be applied, in general sense, to the spatial clustering of disease,
whether or not it is infectious.

8. Epidemic Curve

 It is the representation of new cases of a disease by graph, with the new number of cases
on vertical or Y- axis, and calendar time on horizontal or X- axis.

 Factors affecting the shape of curve

i. The incubation period of disease

ii. The infectivity of agent

iii. The proportion of susceptible animals in the population

iv. The distance between animals (i.e., animal density)

Page 5 of 11
Measures of disease occurrence
 Epidemiological information on existing and required levels of herd health and
productivity is necessary to monitor losses and to evaluate the ongoing health
management programmes.

 Disease accounting is best done by estimating rates and ratios.

Ratio

 A ratio is a relative amount of two quantities expressed in terms of dividing one quantity
(numerator) by other (denominator) or simply it is obtained by dividing one amount by
another.

 In any epidemiological investigation, the term ratio is measurement where the numerator
is not drawn from the denominator i.e.,
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑒𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠
Foetal death ratio= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠

Rate

 A rate deals with frequency (amount) of disease occurrence in a population during a

defined time.

 Rate =

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑

 The population rates of affected animals are estimated by calculating the incidence rate
(IR) or prevalence rate (PR). They signify two distinct trends of disease occurrence.

Page 6 of 11
1. PREVALENCE

 It refers to the number of existing instances of a specific disease or defects or any other
feature (e.g. deformity or presence of antigen) in a given population, at a specified time
period, without differentiating between old and new cases.

 Prevalence represents the risk of being case.

 Prevalence risk refers to the proportion of the total population that has a specific disease
at a specified point of time.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
 Prevalence= 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

 Point Prevalence refers to the number of cases in a population at a single point in time.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
Point Prevalence= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒

 Period Prevalence: It refers to number of disease cases that are known to have occurred
during a specified period of time; for example, a year (annual prevalence).
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
 Period Prevalence= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒

 Prevalence can take any value between 0 and 1 and is dimensionless. Sometimes, it is
expressed as a percentage.

2. INCIDENCE

 Incidence is the number of new cases that occur in known population over a specific
period of time.

 The two important components of the incidence value are:

a. The number of new cases

b. The period of time over which the new cases occur

 Incidence calculates how often initially susceptible individuals transform into disease
cases as they are observe overtime.

Page 7 of 11
  So the number of new cases that originate in a known population over a specified period
should be counted and an incidence case originate when an individual changes from
being susceptible to being diseased.

 Two different measurements are conducted to express the measurement of incidence in a

population:

i. Incidence risk

ii. Incidence rate

 Incidence risk (also k/n Cumulative incidence): It can be measured as the proportion of
the initially susceptible non-diseased individuals in a herd who transformed into diseased
during a defined time period.

 Incidence risk=

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑

 Incidence rate (also known as Incidence density): This is the measurement of rapidity
with which new disease cases appears overtime in a particular herd of individuals.

 It is measured as the number of new disease cases that appears per unit of individual time
at risk during a defined time period. Here denominator is expressed in units of animal or
person time.

 Incidence rate =

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑆𝑢𝑚, 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠, 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑜𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒

Page 8 of 11
Relationship between P & I

 P= I X D

 Where, P is prevalence rate and D is duration/time.

 It indicates that a change in prevalence can be due to a change in:

i. Incidence rate

ii. Duration of disease

iii. Both

3. Attack Rate (AR)

 If the course of the disease is short the IR may be called as AR.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘
 AR= 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘

 AR is useful for identifying risk factors for a specific disease, restricted to outbreak
investigation.

4. Secondary Attack Rate (SAR)

 Sometimes a proportion of the cases of a transmissible disease may arise as a result of

exposure with the primary cases. It is known as secondary attack rates & is an indicator
of the contagiousness of disease.

 S.A.R.= 𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑢𝑏𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒

𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠

= 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠

5. Mortality

 It is the measurement of death associated with a specific causal factor.

 Mortality measures are analogous to incidence measures where the relevant outcome is
death associated with, rather than new cases of specific disease.

Page 9 of 11
  For the mortality measurement, the numbers of deaths are included in the numerator.

 In contrary to the incidence rate, since an animal is at risk of dying after onset of disease,
animals that develop disease but still alive are counted to include them in denominator.

 Mortality rate=

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑎 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑆𝑢𝑚, 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑠,
𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑦𝑖𝑛𝑔

Cumulative Mortality (CM)

 CM can be estimated in a similar way to cumulative incidence, but with numerator

comprising the number of deaths due to the particular disease over a specified period of
time, and the denominator comprising the number of individuals, at risk of dying during
that period.

 Diseased animal present at the beginning of the period of observation are included in the
denominator.
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑒 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
CM=
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑

6. Death Rate

 When the total mortality rate for all diseases in a defined population is measured instead
of measuring the same for a single disease, then the term death rate is used.

7. Case fatality

 It is the measurement of the propensity for a condition to cause death of affected

individuals in a specified time period, or it calculates the probability or chances of death
in diseased individuals, or it measures the percentage of diseased that die in a population.

 This measurement is dimensionless and ranges from 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%.

 CF, this is the proportion of animals that die

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠
CF= 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑠

Page 10 of 11
8. Survival

 Survival, S, is the probability of individuals to remain alive with a specific disease

condition for a specified period of time and it is complementary to case fatality.

 So for a specific period of observation, the sum of all the survival and case fatality should
equal 1 (100%).

𝑵−𝑫
S= 𝑵
 Where,

N= the number of newly diagnosed cases under observation during a specific

period of time.

D= the number of deaths observed in a the same period of time

Page 11 of 11
 ANIMAL DISEASE ECONOMICS
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur)

INTRODUCTION

 Animal health economics is a relatively new discipline, which progressively developing a

solid framework of concepts, procedures and data to support the decision making process
in optimizing animal health management.

 Animal health economics is a discipline, which does not belong to the core of veterinary
science but is becoming more and more important as an aid to decision making on animal
health interventions at various levels.

 The levels of decision making on animal health range from the individual animal to the
national herd and finally to international disease control efforts.

 Animal health economics deals with the following aspects:

o Quantifying the economic effects of animal disease.

o Developing methods for optimizing decisions when individual animals,

herds or populations are affected.

o Determining the profitability of specific disease control and health

management programmes and procedures.

 Animal disease has economic as well as biological impacts because it affects the well-
being of people.

 Economic analysis is frequently concerned with identification of the optimum level of

output in relation to total resource use, and the most efficient combination of resource in
total.

 The criteria for efficiency are both economic and technical.

 Generally, disease in domesticated (and sometimes undomesticated) livestock

populations reduces the quantity and quality of livestock products available for human
consumption (i.e., benefit). Examples of such products range from meat and milk to pony
rides and companion of pets.

Page 1 of 7
 Direct losses through diseases may occur as follows

o At input levels, disease destroys the basic resources of the livestock

production process e.g. mortality of breeding or productive animals.

o Disease lowers the efficiency of the production process and productivity

of resources employed e.g. through reduced feed conversion

o At output level, disease may either reduce the quantity of output e.g. drop
in egg production, lowered milk yield or reduce the quality of output or
the unit value of the product e.g. poor hides because of tick damage,
reduced milk quality due to mastitis, etc.

 The indirect losses due to disease include the following:

o Losses through additional costs incurred to avoid or reduce the incidence

of disease (e.g. vaccination, quarantine) or to treat cases etc.

o Detriment of human well-being directly through zoonoses such as

salmonellosis, brucellosis etc.

o Sub optimal exploitation of otherwise available resources through forced

adoption of production methods, which do not allow the full exploitation
of available resources (e.g. the use of trypanotolerant cattle of low milk
production potential in tsetse infested areas), and/or through revenue
forgone as a result of denied access to (better) markets (e.g. FMD) etc.

 In summary, disease increases expenditures (production costs) and decreases output

(consumer benefits).

 The total cost (C) of a disease is the sum of production losses (L) (direct and indirect) and
control of expenditures (E), in mathematical notation: C=L+E.

 The cost of a particular disease will vary between production systems, e.g. FMD will
cause higher production losses in dairy herds than in beef herds.

 Also, the control costs will differ between production systems.

 However, within a given production system there will be an inverse relationship between
production losses and control expenditure, i.e., higher treatment and prevention
expenditures should result in lower losses.

 In most cases this relationship between losses and expenditure will be non linear
reflecting the non linear nature of the typical production function.

Page 2 of 7
  Main objective of the economic analysis is to get help in decision making when limited
resource allocation is available.

 Thus it provides a basis for making rational choices from alternative preventive or control
measures under various circumstances.

A. Assessment of economic cost of disease:

 Economic cost of a disease can be measured as sum of two variables i.e. Output losses
due to disease and control expenditure to contain the disease.

B. Determination of appropriate control strategy:

 An appropriate control strategy among different strategies available to combat a disease

can be ascertained with the help of graph plotted as output losses on y-axis and control
expenditures on X-axis.

Criteria for selecting a disease control programme

Four important measures are used for selection of a disease control programme.

1. Net present value (NPV): It is defined as the present value of benefits (B) minus the
present value of costs (C) incurred.

2. Benefit Cost ratio (B/C) : It is present value of benefits divided by the present value of
costs

3. The internal rate of return (IRR): It is the rate of discount (r) and calculated from
equation. If IRR is greater than actual interest rate, the project is commercially viable.

4. Pay-back Period: It refers to the time period which gives the total flow of the return on
the investment that is equal to the total cost incurred compounded to present. In early
years, there will be negative cash flow and later on positive cash flow.

Page 3 of 7
Production Functions

 The relationship between the resources that provide the inputs to production and the
goods and services that comprise the output is called the ‘Production Functions’.

 Production function resources may be

o Natural (examples are land and mineral deposits)

o Man-made (examples are buildings and machinery)

 Frequently, these undergo physical transformation (for example, iron ore into steel,
animal feed into body protein) or else facilitate a physical transformation process (for
example, manpower and managerial expertise).

 Empirical evidence shows that this relationship is typically non-linear because certain
inputs are typically fixed, and so beyond a certain point an increase in variable input is
associated with a less than proportionate increase in out-put – the law of diminishing
returns.

 Disease is an economic process

o Livestock production is a specific example of a physical transformation process.

o Disease impairs the process (i.e., reduces output) and sometimes results in death.

o Thus, there is a loss of efficiency which poses both technical and economic
problems.

o If restoration of technical efficiency is the goal, the corresponding economic

objective is to find the least-cost method to restore health and productivity.

Assessing the economic cost of disease

 The total economic cost of disease can be measured as the sum of output losses and
control expenditures.

 A reduction in output is a loss because it is benefit that is either taken away (e.g., when
milk containing antibiotic residues is compulsorily discarded) or unrealized (e.g.,
decreased milk yield).

 Expenditures, in contrast are increases in input, and are usually associated with disease
control.

 Examples of control expenditures are veterinary intervention which may be used either
therapeutically or prophylactically and increased use of agricultural labour.

Page 4 of 7
Optimum Control Strategies

 The basic economic model of a production function is to illustrate the implications of

disease and its control for technical and economic efficiency.

 A related approach is to explore the general relationship between control expenditures

and output losses.

 Bovine mastitis is considered to be the most important disease affecting dairy cattle.

 Cost of control measures include,

o Teat dip and spraying

o Dry cow therapy

o Annual testing of milking machines.

 The losses due to subclinical mastitis include,

o Decreased milk yield

o Changed milk consumption

o Decreased milk quality

o Accelerated replacement of dairy cows

Cost benefit analysis of disease control

 The costs and benefits of disease control campaigns can be assessed using several
methods including gross margin analysis and partial budgeting.

Partial farm budgets

 Partial farm budgets have been used to assess the suitability of control strategies
(notably against endemic diseases such as mastitis and internal parasitism) on
individual farms.

 ‘Partial’ indicates that assessment is restricted to the factors that are likely to
change as a result of the procedural changes.

 A partial budget is a simple description of the financial consequences of particular

changes in farm management procedures, of which disease control programmes
are a part.

Page 5 of 7
  Following are four main components of partial farm budget.

1. Additional revenue realized from the change (f1)

2. Reduced cost due to change (c1)
3. Increased costs as a result of the changes (f2)
4. Cost of implementing the change (c2)

 The change should be adopted if sum of (f1) and (c1) is greater than that of (f2) and (c2).

Social cost-benefit analyses (SCBA)

 Social cost-benefit analysis is developed as a means of assessing large-scale

investment policies.

 It has been used widely in veterinary medicine to assess national animal disease
control campaigns against epidemic and sporadic diseases.

‘Internal’ and ‘external’ costs and benefits

 Internalities (private costs and benefits) are those that accrue directly to an investment
project. Costs and benefits accrue to others are termed externalities.

 Example 1: farm mastitis control campaign

o Internalities

• Dry-cow antibiotic therapy (a cost)

• Increased milk yield (a benefit)

o Externalities

• Antibiotic residues in milk may have undesirable side effects on unknowing

consumers

 Example 2: FMD control campaign

o Internalities- loss of animals

o Externalities- Inconvenience of restriction on movement and access.

Page 6 of 7
Discounting

 Control campaigns may operate over several years.

 The value of a sum of money now is greater than the same sum of money at a later date
because it could be invested now to produce a larger sum in the future as interest accrues.

 If cost and benefits, spread over several years are to be compared, then must be adjusted
to calculate their value now.

 The process of adjustment, which is the opposite of compounding, is called discounting.

Shadow prices

 The social value of a benefit may not always be the market price. For example, a litre of
milk is valued at its market price by the farmer. However, the lower value may be due to
surplus milk production.

 A national disease control campaign that resulted in increased milk production would
therefore use the value of the milk, termed a shadow price, in economic evaluation.

Data requirements for economic assessment of Disease Control Projects

 A fairly large amount of quantitative information has to be compiled in order to carry out
a sound economic evaluation of animal disease control at national or even at regional
level.

These data requirements can be classified under the following seven headings:

1. Fundamental knowledge of the disease

2. Information on disease occurrence

3. Effects of the disease on the production process

4. Effects of disease beyond the production process

5. Potential control measures

6. Expected benefits of control measures

7. Cost of control measures

Page 7 of 7
Strategies of Disease Management: Prevention, Control and
Biosecurity
(Dr. S. S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur on 15.10.2020)

Prevention
 Prevention of disease in epidemiological sense means all measures to exclude disease
from an unaffected population of animals. There are three types of prevention

– Primary
– Secondary
– Tertiary

Primary prevention

 Includes those activities directed towards preventing exposure to causal factors.

o Quarantine

o Vaccination

Secondary prevention

 Includes those activities designed to detect disease process as early as possible before
clinical disease occurs.

o Screening test to detect TB, Brucellosis

o Somatic cell count to detect mastitis

o Regular examination of postpartum cow and metabolic profiles

Tertiary prevention

 Prevention by treatment

Control
 Control is defined as all measures used to reduce the frequency of illness already present
in population, by reducing or eliminating causes of illness, ultimately to levels of little or
no consequences.

 It can be achieved by treating diseased animals.

Page 1 of 11
 Eradication
 Defined as a bolder directed action in which the object is the extinction of species of
infectious microorganisms.

 This term is expressed in 4 senses:

o The extinction of infectious agent

o Reduction of infectious disease prevalence in a specified area to a level at

which transmission does not occur

o The reduction of infectious disease prevalence to a level at which disease

ceases to be major health problem

o Regional extinction of an infectious organism

 Eradication involves a time limited process.

Biosecurity
 Biosecurity is a strategic and integrated approach to analysing and managing relevant
risks to human, animal and plant life and health and associated risks for the environment.

 Biosecurity is set of measures aimed at preventing the introduction and/or spread of

harmful organisms, in order to minimise the risk of transmission of infectious diseases to
people, animals and plants caused by viruses, bacteria or other microorganisms.

 Biosecurity covers food safety, zoonoses, the introduction of animal and plant diseases
and pests, the introduction and release of living modified organisms and their products
and the introduction and management of invasive alien species.

 Animal biosecurity encompasses different means of prevention and containment of

disease agents in a specific area. A critical element in animal biosecurity is
biocontainment – the control of disease agents already present in a particular area and
work to prevent transmission.

 Animal biosecurity may protect organisms from infectious agents or non infectious
agents such as toxins or pollutants, and can be executed in areas as large as a nation or as
small as a local farm.

 Animal biosecurity takes into account the epidemiological triad for disease occurrence:
the individual host, the disease, and the environment in contributing to disease
susceptibility.

Page 2 of 11
 It aims to improve nonspecific immunity of the host to resist the introduction of an agent,
or limit the risk that an agent will be sustained in an environment at adequate levels.
Biocontainment works to improve specific immunity towards already present pathogens.

 Two basic Biosecurity measures for protecting livestock from diseases are

1) Purchasing healthy stock and

2) Preventing any exposure to disease organisms.

Other preventive measures include proper nutrition, sanitation, and controlling animal and
human traffic on and off the farm. If disease occurs, control measures include early detection
and treatment.

Preliminary steps to control an outbreak

1. Segregation:

 All the infected animals must be separated from the healthy animals.

 All appliances (bucket, milking utensils) and attendant should be separated.

2. Restrict movement of animals:

 Animals should not be taken out for grazing on drinking water or to cattle fair for sale
and purchase.

3. Withdrawal of toxic feed, fodder and water:

 Feed/fodder/water could have been contaminated with toxin (mycotoxins) or

insecticides/pesticides.

4. Vaccination:

 During FMD outbreak, ring vaccination can be followed, that means vaccination of
animals in area surrounding the infected region to provide a barrier against spread of
infection.

Page 3 of 11
5. Chemotherapy:

 Antibiotics, anthelmintic and other drugs can be used to treat sick animals for control of
disease.

6. General improvement in hygiene:

 Thorough cleaning and disinfection of sheds in addition to proper disposal of dung and
debris should be done.

 A disinfectant dip should be provided at the entrance of the shed.

 After PM the died animal should be buried deep inside the earth and covered with thick
lime on it.

7. Reporting:

 Veterinarians should report the disease to higher authorities.

 It serves the following purpose:

o Authorities will send disease investing experts

o It puts into operation various control measures e.g. Quarantine

o It enables the scientists to ascertain the origin of disease

o Detailed study of the disease, helps in preventing the outbreak in future

Page 4 of 11
STRATEGIES OF DISEASE CONTROL AND ERADICATION

Strategies used to control and eradicate disease are

o Doing nothing

o Selective slaughter

o Depopulation

o Quarantine

o Mass treatment

o Mass immunization

o Movement of the host

o Alternate and sequential grazing

o Control of vectors

o Disinfection of fomites

o Niche filling

o Improvement in environment, husbandry & Feeding

o Genetic improvement

o Minimal diseased methods

o Education to livestock owner

1. Doing nothing:

 The incidence of the disease might decrease due to natural changes in host parasite
relationship without intervention of man e.g. blue tongue does not occur in winter
because culicoides species cannot survive.

2. Selective slaughter:

 It is the slaughter based on the individual animal.

 This method is followed in early stages of eradication programme or if agent spreads very
slowly.

Page 5 of 11
3. Depopulation

 It is the slaughter based on the herd/flock or area.

 The whole population including the infected as well as uninfected and in contact animals
are sacrificed.

 Depopulation is preferred over selective slaughter if an agent is exotic to the area or

spreads very quickly.

 Test & slaughter: identification of positive animals using immunological or other

screening tests and slaughter tests and slaughtering the test positive animals.

4. Quarantine:

 Enforced physical separation of infected, potentially infected or suspected animals, their

products or items (they might have contaminated) from healthy population e.g. Dogs are
quarantined for a period to ensure that they are free from rabies, before entry into rabies
free countries.

5. Mass treatment:

 The mass treatment approach to disease control depends upon the availability of safe and
cheap therapeutic agents.

 E.g. Sulphonamides in drinking water for coccidiosis in chicken.

6. Mass immunization

 The interesting areas for future development of mass immunization as a disease control
tool are methods for mass administration of vaccines that dispense with problems of
needle hygiene (such as use of jet injection guns) or that eliminate the need to handle
animal individually.

 Example: Stable vaccines incorporated in water or feed and vaccines administered by

mucosal route as aerosols.

Page 6 of 11
7. Movement of host

 Animals can be moved from high risk areas where infections are endemic.

8. Alternate and sequential grazing:

 Mixed grazing means grazing of the susceptible animal with livestock that are
genetically or immunologically resistant to helminthes reduces pasture contamination to
acceptable levels.

 Alternate grazing of a pasture with different species of livestock again reduces pasture
contamination. For example in Norway, annual alternate grazing of sheep and cattle has
reduced Ostertagia spp. and Nematodirus spp. (nematode) to a negligible level in sheep.

 Sequential grazing is grazing of resistant and susceptible animals of same species at

different times.

9. Control of vectors:

 By killing (use of insecticide), destroying the habitat of vectors (burn the bush, drain
water logging area etc.)

 Introduction of sterile male mosquito or snail (not vector of schistosomiasis), can control
vector borne diseases.

10. Disinfection of fomites:

 Fomites such as farm equipments, surgical instruments should be disinfected to prevent

the transmission of infectious agents.

11. Niche filling:

 The presence of one organism within a niche, which can prevent its occupation by
another organism by competitive exclusion.

 Feeding of endogenous intestinal flora suspension to day-old chicks to prevent the

colonization of their digestive tract by virulent Salmonella spp., E. coli and
Campylobacter jejuni is an example of niche filling.

Page 7 of 11
12. Improvement in environment, husbandry and feeding:

 Livestock rearing has taken a shape of the industry, therefore in an intensive reared
livestock good animal husbandry practices, balanced ration feeding, clean and hygienic
environment play a very vital role in containment of disease.

13. Genetic improvement by:

 Genetic screening and selective breeding

14. Minimal disease methods:

 Disinfecting infected premises, treating an infected animal or removing that from the
animal unit.

 Use of caesarian section for birth of uninfected animals and use of uninfected eggs for
hatching are combined techniques termed as minimal disease methods.

 These helped in the eradication of enzootic pneumonia from some pig herds in the UK.

Sentinel

 Animal that is free of and susceptible to a specific condition and that is monitored during
and/or after being exposed to other animals or an environment suspected of harbouring
this condition.

 It is also referred to veterinary clinics or farms as sentinels, being viewed as a recording

mechanism selected or posted explicitly to record relevant occurrences in active
surveillance program.

 Examples:

o Domesticated rabbits exposed in cages to detect myxomatosis.

o Rams that are not vaccinated for brucellosis and that are exposed to a herd
where all females are vaccinated.

o Birds kept in cages near water sources in Minnesota and monitored for
influenza.

Page 8 of 11
15. Education to livestock owner:

 This is the most important because awareness of livestock owner about different types of
diseases, their zoonotic and economic importance plus how to keep their animals healthy
and productive and role of disease reporting will, in turn, help the authority in prevention
and control of disease.

Factors involved in disease control and eradication programme

 Before either a control or eradication campaign can be undertaken, several factors must
be considered and these include the level of knowledge about disease and, if infectious,
also about its transmission and maintenance, including host range and nature of
host/parasite relationship.

o Veterinary infrastructure

o Diagnostic facility

o Adequate surveillance

o Availability of replacement stock

o Producers opinion and co-operation

o Public opinion

o Public health considerations

o Requirements of legislation and compensation

o Ecological consequences

o Financial support

Page 9 of 11
Health:
 The WHO describes health as “State of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing
and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”.

Animal Health:

 State of wellbeing applied to animals. Field of knowledge and methodologies designed to

prevent disease, preserve health and improve productivity in animal populations through
collective actions.

Population at risk

 Parts of general population that is susceptible to develop an event of interest under

specific circumstances or study conditions.

 The notion of population at risk is independent from the exposure to risk factor.

 The population at risk corresponds to a susceptible population for a given risk.

 When the population at risk is exposed to the risk factor or disease determinant, this
population at risk of developing the event or pathological phenomenon.

Population exposed (to a risk factor): Exposed population

 Population that has been effectively subjected to a given risk factor or causal agent,
independently of the fact that it may or may not be susceptible to the disease associated
with the exposure.

 Example: For a study on bovine tuberculosis in a herd, the population exposed includes
noninfected and infected animals with TB, because all have been exposed to the risk.

Page 10 of 11
Notifiable Disease (Reportable Disease)

 Disease required to be reported to federal, state, or local health officials when diagnosed,
and whose detection may trigger a set of disease control measures as defined by
government authorities.

 Example: FMD, rinderpest, African swine fever, rabies, brucellosis, hog cholera and TB
are examples of notifiable diseases in countries of European countries and in North
America.

Page 11 of 11
 Role of OIE and
Laws on International Trade of Animals and Animal Products
(Dr. S.S. Shekhawat Assistant Professor PGIVER Jaipur)

 The Paris (France) based OIE is an international organization concerned with the
global control of animal diseases.

 The need to fight animal diseases at global level led to the creation of the OIE through
the international agreement signed on January 25th, 1924 following an outbreak of
rinderpest in Belgium in 1920.

 In May, 2003 the office became the World Organization for Animal Health but kept its
historical acronym OIE.

 The OIE is the intergovernmental organization responsible for improving animal health
worldwide and has a macro scale reporting system that records data on the major
infectious epidemic diseases of animals throughout the world.

 It is recognized as a reference organization by WTO and in 2018 had a total of 182

Member Countries.

 The OIE maintains permanent relations with 75 other international and regional
organizations and has regional and sub-regional offices on every continent.

Principal Objectives of this organization:

1. Transparency

i. Ensure transparency in the global animal disease situation

ii. Each member country undertakes to report the animal diseases that it
detects on its territory

iii. OIE disseminates the information to other countries

2. Scientific information

i. Collect, analyse and disseminate veterinary scientific information

ii. This information is made available to help Member Countries to improve

the methods to control & eradicate diseases

Page 1 of 16
3. International solidarity

i. Encourage international solidarity in the control of animal diseases

ii. The OIE Provides technical support to Member Countries requesting

assistance

iii. The OIE notably offers expertise to the poorest countries to help them
control animal diseases

4. Sanitary safety

i. Safeguard world trade by publishing health standards for

international trade in animals and animal products

ii. The OIE develops normative documents relating to rules that Member
Countries use to protect themselves from introduction of pathogen and
diseases

iii. The main normative work produced by OIE are : the Terrestrial Animal
Health Code, the Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial
Animals, the Aquatic Animal Health Code and Manual of Diagnostic
Tests for Aquatic Animals.

5. Promotion of veterinary services

i. Improve the legal framework and resources of national veterinary

services

ii. The OIE considers the Veterinary Services as Global Public Good and
their bringing into line with international standards (structures,
organization, resources, capabilities, role of paraprofessionals) as a public
investment priority.

6. Food safety and animal welfare

i. To provide a better guarantee of food of animal origin and to promote

animal welfare through a science-based approach

ii. The OIE member countries have decided to provide a better guarantee of
the safety of food of animal origin by creating synergy between the
activities of the OIE and those of CAC.

Page 2 of 16
  The organization is placed under the authority and control of a World Assembly of
Delegates consisting of Delegates by the Government of Member Countries.

 The day to day operation of the OIE is managed at HQ situated in Paris (France) and
placed under the responsibility of DG elected by World Assembly of Delegates.

 The HQ implements the resolutions passed by the International Committee and

developed with the support of commissions elected by delegates.

 The OIE’s financial resources are derived principally from compulsory annual
contributions backed up by voluntary contributions from Member Countries.

 Dr. Monique Eloit (Director General) has been leading this organization since May 26 ,
2015. She began her term in office on January 1, 2016.

 It is very important to know the natural history of diseases relevant to trade, the risk of
transmission, and the biological and economic consequences of introduction of pathogen.

OIE-Listed diseases, infections and infestations

 Resolutions passed by the International Committee and recommendations issued by the

Regional Commissions instructed the OIE Headquarters to establish a single OIE list of
notifiable terrestrial and aquatic animal diseases to replace the former Lists A and B.

 The aim in drawing up a single list was to be in line with the terminology of the SPS
Agreement of the WTO, by classifying diseases as specific hazards and giving all listed
diseases the same degree of importance in international trade.

 In order to create a single list of notifiable diseases, the OIE defined criteria to examine
the inclusion or not of a given disease in the OIE single list that were approved in May
2004.

 In 2005, the first single list composed of former lists A and B was used, and in the same
year, an Ad Hoc Group on disease and pathogenic agents notification was organized to
examine diseases according to the adopted criteria for listing diseases, and proposed a
new list of diseases meeting the criteria that entered into force in 2006.

 The list is reviewed on a regular basis and in case of modifications adopted by the World
Assembly of Delegates at its annual General Session, the new list comes into force on 1
January of the following year.

 For year 2020, the list includes 117 animal diseases, infections and infestations.

Page 3 of 16
Terrestrial animal diseases:

 Multiple species diseases, infections and infestations (24)

 Cattle diseases and infections (13)

 Sheep and goat diseases and infections (11)

 Equine diseases and infections (11)

 Swine diseases and infections (06)

 Avian diseases and infections (13)

 Lagomorph diseases and infections (02)

 Bee diseases, infections and infestations (06)

 Other diseases and infections (02)

Aquatic animal diseases

 Fish diseases – 10

 Mollusc diseases – 07

 Crustacean diseases- 09

 Amphibians – 03

INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS

 In the current trend of globalization, animal health measures have increasing importance
to facilitate safe international trade of animals and animal products while avoiding
unnecessary impediments to trade.

 In light of this, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures
(SPS Agreement) encourages the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to
base their sanitary measures on international standards, guidelines and recommendations,
where they exist.

 The OIE is the WTO reference organization for standards relating to animal health
and Zoonoses. The OIE publishes 2 codes (Terrestrial and Aquatic) and 2 manuals
(Terrestrial and Aquatic) as the principle reference for WTO members.

Page 4 of 16
  The Terrestrial Animal Health Code and Aquatic Animal Health Code respectively aim
to assure the sanitary safety of international trade in terrestrial animals and aquatic
animals, and their products.

 The Terrestrial Animal Health Code was first published in 1968 and the Aquatic Animal
Health Code was introduced to the public in 1995.

 The codes traditionally addressed animal health and Zoonoses, but they have, in recent
years, expanded to cover animal welfare, animal production food safety, consistent with
the expanded mandate of the OIE which is ‘to improve animal health worldwide’.

 In 2016 and 2017, during OIE General Session, OIE Members expressed the need for
more concrete guidance and support from the OIE for establishing e-veterinary
certification systems that would improve their participation in international trade.

 This lead to the development and approval of the WTO Standards Trade Development
Facility (STDF) project on the ‘Development of a framework to facilitate e-
veterinary certification for international trade on the basis of a single window
system’.

 The project aimed to gain a better understating of current practices implemented by some
OIE Members, both developed and developing, as well as relevant work in other
international organizations on e-certification and single window.

Terrestrial Animal Health Code

 The OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code establishes standards for the
improvement of terrestrial animal health and welfare and veterinary public health
worldwide.

 Veterinary Authorities should use the standards in the Terrestrial Code to set up
measures providing for early detection, internal reporting, notification, control or
eradication of pathogenic agents, including zoonotic ones, in terrestrial animals
(mammals, birds, reptiles and bees) and preventing their spread via
international trade in animals and animal products, while avoiding unjustified
sanitary barriers to trade.

 The OIE standards are based on the most recent scientific and technical
information. Correctly applied, they protect animal health and welfare and
veterinary public health during production and trade in animals and animal
products, and in the use of animals.

Page 5 of 16
Terrestrial Code content

 The standards in the chapters of Section 1 are designed for the implementation of
measures for the diagnosis, surveillance and notification of pathogenic agents.
 The standards include procedures for notification to the OIE, tests for international
trade, and procedures for the assessment of the health status of a country, zone or
compartment.
 The standards in Section 2 are designed to guide the importing country in
conducting import risk analysis in the absence of OIE recommendations on
particular pathogenic agents or commodities.
 The importing country should also use these standards to justify import measures
which are more stringent than existing OIE standards.
 The standards in the chapters of Section 5 are designed for the implementation of
general sanitary measures for trade.
 They address veterinary certification and the measures applicable by the
exporting, transit and importing countries.
 A range of model veterinary certificates is provided to facilitate consistent
documentation in international trade.

Trade requirements

 Animal health measures related to international trade should be based on OIE

standards.

 A Member Country may authorize the importation of animals or animal products into its
territory under conditions different from those recommended by the Terrestrial Code.

 To scientifically justify more stringent measures, the importing country should

conduct a risk analysis in accordance with OIE standards, as described in Chapter 2.1.

 Members of the WTO should refer to the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and
Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement).

 Chapters 5.1. to 5.3. describe the obligations and ethical responsibilities of importing
and exporting countries in international trade.

 Veterinary Authorities and all veterinarians directly involved in international trade

should be familiar with these chapters. Chapter 5.3. also describes the OIE informal
procedure for dispute mediation.

 The OIE aims to include an article listing the commodities that are considered safe for
trade without the need for risk mitigation measures specifically directed against a
particular listed disease, infection or infestation, regardless of the status of the country or

Page 6 of 16
 zone of origin for the agent in question, at the beginning of each listed disease-specific
chapter in Sections 8 to 15.

International Veterinary Certificates

 An international veterinary certificate is an official document that the Veterinary

Authority of an exporting country issues in accordance with Chapters 5.1. and 5.2.

 It lists animal health requirements and, where appropriate, public health

requirements for the exported commodity.

 The quality of the exporting country's Veterinary Services is essential in providing

assurances to trading partners regarding the safety of exported animals and products.

 This includes the ‘Veterinary Services' ethical approach to the provision of

veterinary certificates and their history in meeting their notification obligations.

 International veterinary certificates underpin international trade and provide

assurances to the importing country regarding the health status of the animals and
products imported.

 The measures prescribed should take into account the health status of both exporting
and importing countries, and zones or compartments within them, and be based upon
the standards in the Terrestrial Code.

Page 7 of 16
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS OF VETERINARY ETHICS AND CERTIFICATION
FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE

 International trade in animals and animal products depends on a combination of factors

which should be taken into account to ensure unimpeded trade, without incurring
unacceptable risks to human and animal health.

 An exporting country should be prepared to supply the following information to

importing countries on request:

1. Information on the animal health situation and national animal health

information systems to determine whether that country is free of OIE diseases
2. Regular and prompt information on the occurrence of transmissible diseases
3. Details of the country’s ability to apply measures to control OIE listed diseases
4. Information on the structure of Veterinary Services and authority which they
exercise
5. Technical information, particularly on biological tests and vaccines applied in all
or part of national territory.

PRINCIPLES OF CERTIFICATION

Certification requirements

 Because of the likely variations in animal health situations, various options are offered by
the code of the importing countries and only by considering the animal health situation in
the exporting country and transit country or countries can be the importing country
precisely state the requirements which are to be met for imports.

 The requirements are mentioned in the model certificates approved by the OIE.

 Importing countries should observe the following rules when preparing these
requirements:

1. Requirements should be restricted to conditions which are justified for

animal health reasons

2. Certification requirements should be exact and concise, and should

clearly convey the wishes of importing country.

3. Certification should be based on highest possible ethical standards

4. The transmission by the Veterinary Administration of certificates or

communication of import permit requirement to persons other than the

Page 8 of 16
 Veterinary Administration of another country necessitates that copies of
these documents are also sent to the Veterinary Administration.

 This important procedure avoids delays and difficulties which may arise between traders
and Veterinary Administrations when the authenticity of certificates or permits is not
established.

 The information is usually the responsibility of Veterinary Administrations.

 However, it can be the responsibility of Veterinary Authorities at the place of origin of

animals when it is agreed that the issue of certificates does not require the approval of the
Veterinary Administration.

Chapter 5.1

GENERAL OBLIGATIONS RELATED TO CERTIFICATION

Article 5.1.1.

 The requirements should be included in the model certificates approved by the OIE
which are included from Chapters 5.10. to 5.12.
 Certificates should be exact and concise, and should clearly convey the requirements of
the importing country

Article 5.1.2.

 Responsibilities of the importing country

Article 5.1.3

 Responsibilities of the exporting country

Article 5.1.4

 Responsibilities in case of an incident related to importation

Page 9 of 16
Chapter 5.2

CERTIFICATION PROCEDURES

Article 5.2.1.

 Protection of the professional integrity of the certifying veterinarian

Article 5.2.2.

 Certifying veterinarians

Article 5.2.3.

 Preparation of international veterinary certificates

Article 5.2.4.

 Electronic certification

Chapter 5.3

OIE PROCEDURES RELEVANT TO THE AGREEMENT ON THE APPLICATION OF

SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY MEASURES OF THE WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION

Article 5.3.1.

 The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and role and
responsibility of the OIE

Article 5.3.2.

 Introduction to the determination of the equivalence of sanitary measures

Article 5.3.3.

 General considerations on the determination of the equivalence of sanitary measures

Page 10 of 16
 Article 5.3.4.

 Prerequisite considerations for the determination of equivalence

Article 5.3.5.

 Principles for determination of equivalence

Article 5.3.6.

 Sequence of steps to be taken in determination of equivalence

Article 5.3.7.

 Sequence of steps to be taken in establishing a zone or compartment and having it

recognized for international trade purposes

Article 5.3.8.

 The OIE informal procedure for dispute mediation

Chapter 5.4

ANIMAL HEALTH MEASURES APPLICABLE BEFORE AND AT DEPARTURE

Article 5.4.1.

 Animals for breeding, rearing or slaughter

Article 5.4.2.

 Semen, oocytes, embryos and hatching eggs

Article 5.4.3.

 Notification

Page 11 of 16
Article 5.4.4.

 Certificate

Article 5.4.5.

 Live animals

Article 5.4.6.

 Products of animal origin

Chapter 5.5

ANIMAL HEALTH MEASURES APPLICABLE DURING TRANSIT FROM THE

PLACE OF DEPARTURE IN THE EXPORTING COUNTRY TO THE PLACE OF
ARRIVAL IN THE IMPORTING COUNTRY

Article 5.5.1.

Article 5.5.2.

Article 5.5.3.

Article 5.5.4.

Article 5.5.5.

Chapter 5.6

BORDER POSTS AND QUARANTINE STATIONS IN THE IMPORTING COUNTRY.

Article 5.6.1.

Article 5.6.2.

Article 5.6.3.

Article 5.6.4.

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Chapter 5.7

ANIMAL HEALTH MEASURES APPLICABLE ON ARRIVAL

Article 5.7.1. Article 5.7.6.

Article 5.7.2. Article 5.7.7.

Article 5.7.3. Article 5.7.8.

Article 5.7.4. Article 5.7.9.

Article 5.7.5.

Chapter 5.8

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFER AND LABORATORY CONTAINMENT OF ANIMAL

PATHOGENIC AGENTS

Article 5.8.1.

 Object

Article 5.8.2.

 Introduction

Article 5.8.3.

 Classification of pathogenic agents

Article 5.8.4.

 Importation of animal pathogenic agents

Page 13 of 16
Article 5.8.5.

 Laboratory containment of animal pathogenic agents

Chapter 5.9

QUARANTINE MEASURES APPLICABLE TO NON-HUMAN PRIMATES.

Article 5.9.1.

 General principles

Article 5.9.2.

 Management policies

Article 5.9.3.

 Quarantine facility infrastructure design and equipment

Article 5.9.4.

 Personnel protection practices

Article 5.9.5.

 Husbandry and animal care practices

Page 14 of 16
Chapter 5.10

MODEL VETERINARY CERTIFICATES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVE

ANIMALS, HATCHING EGGS AND PRODUCTS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN

Article 5.10.1.

 Notes for guidance on the veterinary certificates for international trade in live
animals, hatching eggs and products of animal origin

Article 5.10.2.

 Model veterinary certificate for international trade in live animals and hatching
eggs

Article 5.10.3.

 Model veterinary certificate for international trade in oocytes, embryos or semen

Article 5.10.4.

 Model veterinary certificate for international trade in products of animal origin

Article 5.10.5.

 Model veterinary certificate for international trade in bees and brood combs

Chapter 5.11

MODEL VETERINARY CERTIFICATE FOR INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT OF

DOGS, CATS AND FERRETS ORIGINATING FROM COUNTRIES CONSIDERED
INFECTED WITH RABIES

Page 15 of 16
Chapter 5.12

MODEL PASSPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT OF COMPETITION

HORSES

Chapter 5.13

MODEL VETERINARY CERTIFICATE FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN

LABORATORY ANIMALS

Article 5.13.1.

 Introduction and scope

Article 5.13.2.

 Notes for guidance on the use of the veterinary certificate

Article 5.13.3.

 Model veterinary certificate for international trade in laboratory animals

(Source: www.oie.int)

Page 16 of 16
 Lecture 13
(Dr. S.S.Shekhwat Assistant Professor P.G.I.V.E.R. Jaipur on 29.11.2020)

The Cause of Disease (Disease Process)

Koch’s postulates

 These postulates state that an organism is causal if:

1. It is present in all cases of disease

2. It does not occur in another disease as fortuitous and non-pathogenic parasite

3. It is isolated in pure culture from an animal, is repeatedly passaged induces the

same disease in other animals.

 These postulates have difficulty in dealing with multiple etiological causes, multiple
effects of a single agent, non infectious causes and host or other environmental factors
into account.

Evans Postulates (Evans, 1976)

1. The proportion of individuals with the disease should be significantly higher in those
exposed to supposed cause than in those who are not.

2. The exposure to the supposed cause should be present more commonly in those with the
disease than in those without the disease, if all the other risk factors are held constant.

3. The number of new cases of the disease should be significantly higher in those exposed
to the supposed cause than in those not so exposed.

4. Temporally, the disease should follow exposure to the supposed cause with the
distribution of incubation periods on a bell shaped curve i.e., typical endemic curve.

5. A spectrum (entire range between two extremities) of host responses, from mild to
severe, should follow exposure to the supposed cause along a logical biological gradient
(dose-response relationship).

6. A measurable host response (e.g. antibody, cancer cell) should appear regularly following
exposure to the supposed cause in those lacking this response before exposure or should
increase in magnitude before exposure.

7. The experimental reproduction of disease should occur with greater frequency in animals
appropriately exposed to the supposed cause than in those not so exposed.
Page 1 of 11
 8. The elimination and modification of the supposed cause should decrease the frequency of
occurrence of disease.

9. The prevention or modification of the host’s response (i.e., by immunization) should

decrease or eliminate the disease that normally occurs on exposure to the supposed cause.

10. All relationship and associations should be biologically and epidemiologically credible
(acceptable/convincing).

Variable – it is any observable event that can vary. In a population some properties vary from
member to member, for example, milk production in cows, breeds of dogs; Theses are called
variables.

Study variable- It is any variable that is being considered in an investigation.

A response (dependent) variable is one that is affected by explanatory (independent) variable

e.g. if we want to study the effect of sex on occurrence of urolithiasis in dogs then sex is
explanatory variable and urolithiasis is response variable.

Measures of association:

Association- it is the degree of dependence or independence between two variables.

 It is of two types:

1. Non statistical association is an association between a disease and hypothesized causal

factor that arise by chance; whereas

2. Statistical association, variables are positively statistically associated and they occur
more frequently than would be expected by chance.

Measures of association:

 It is desirable to provide more informative measure of the impact of factor on disease

occurrence. This can be expressed by absolute difference in disease occurrence between
‘exposed’ and ‘unexposed’ groups.

Page 2 of 11
 Disease present Disease absent
Factor/Disease D+ D- Total
F+ (Exposed) a b a+b
F- (Unexposed) c d c+d
a+c b+d n= a+b+c+d

 Incidence of disease in exposed population = a/(a+b)

 Incidence of disease in unexposed population= c/(c+d)

RR (Relative Risk): It is the ratio of incidence of disease (or death) among exposed animals and
the incidence among non exposed animals. It is direct measure of the “strength” of the
association between suspected cause and effect.

 If value of RR is more than one, it indicates a positive statistical association between

factor and disease.

RR = a/(a+b) ÷ c(c+d)

RR = a(c+d)/c(a+b)

Odds ratio- It is calculated as the ratio between odds of disease in exposed animals and odds of
disease in unexposed animals.

 Odds ratio is a measure of association between an exposure and an outcome.

 Odds are the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that event
will not occur.

Odds = P/1-P

i. Case control study-

 Exposure odds ratio

 Exposure odds (cases)/ Exposure odds (control) = a/c divided by b/d

OR = ad/bc

ii. Cohort study-

 Disease odds ratio

Page 3 of 11
  Disease odds (Exposed/ Disease odds (unexposed) = a/b divided by c/d

OR = ad/bc

iii. Cross sectional study-

Prevalence odds ratio = ad/bc

Attributable Risk (AR): The attributable risk indicates to the extent to which the incidence of
disease in exposed animals would be reduced if they had not been exposed to risk factors,
assuming that the risk factor is causal. AR indicates to what extent the disease under study can be
attributed to exposure.

AR = a/(a+b) – c/(c+d)

Attributable fraction (AF) : It is the amount of disease in exposed animals due to some specific
factor.

AF = AR/a(c+b) = RR- 1/RR

Confounding

 (Latin confudere- to mix together)

 It is the effect of an extraneous variable that can wholly or partly account for an apparent
association between variables.

 Confounding can produce a spurious association between study variables, or can mask a
real association.

 A variable that confounds is called a confounding variable or confounder.

 Confounding factor must be

 A risk factor for a disease that is being studied

 Associated with extraneous variable

Page 4 of 11
Example:

 An investigation of leptospirosis in dairy farmers in New Zealand revealed that wearing

an apron during milking was associated with an increased risk of contracting leptospirosis
(response variable).

 Further work showed that the larger the herd being milked, the greater the chance of
contracting leptospirosis.

 It was also found that farmers with large herds tended to wear aprons more frequently for
milking than farmers with small herds.

 The association between the wearing of aprons and leptospirosis was not causal but was
produced spuriously by the confounding effect of large herd size.

 The basic cause of leptospirosis in dairy farmers is not due to wearing apron but due to
large size of herd.

Epidemiological Hypothesis

 A hypothesis can be defined as a proposition which can be assessed formally; and after
the assessment or test the hypothesis may either be “accepted” or “rejected”.

 In order to formulate a causal hypothesis, three factors are most important on which
information should be collected-

1. Time

2. Place

3. Population

1. Time: The association of disease or outbreak with year, season, month, day or even hour
should be considered.

 Such details may provide information on climatic influences, incubation periods and
source of infection e.g. HS outbreak may be associated with rainfall; prevalence of
hemoprotozoan diseases is increased during summer or rainfall.

2. Place: The geographical distribution of a disease may indicate an association with local
geographical, managemental or ecological factors e.g. increased occurrence of
fascioliasis in low lying areas.

Page 5 of 11
 3. Population: The type of animals affected is of considerable importance e.g. theileriosis is
disease of crossbred and exotic cattle; canine parvo virus gastroenteritis is more common
in Dobermans as compared to other breeds and pups are commonly affected than adults.

When the major facts have been established, alternative causal hypothesis can be formulated.

 There are four methods by which an epidemiological hypothesis can be formulated.

i. Method of difference

ii. Method of agreement

iii. Method of concomitant variation

iv. Method of analogy

I. Method of difference

 In some cases there may be two circumstances and a disease may be present in one
circumstance but absent in other.

 Again a factor which is present more frequently in the first circumstance is not present in
the second one so frequently.

 So, in this case the factor may be considered as a suspected causal factor.

II. Method of agreement

 In some circumstances it is found that a factor is common in all the circumstances and a
disease is also common in all those circumstances, then the factor may be causal to that
event.

Circumstance I : Bloat in cattle after accidental feeding on a ripe rice cultivation field.

Circumstance II : Calves suffering from bloat after eating left out rotten cake ad lib.

Circumstance III : Bloat in cattle after feeding the left out rice in a ceremonial occasion.

 Common disease and factors in different above mentioned circumstances

 Disease circumstance – Bloat

 Common factors- huge amount of easily digestible carbohydrate

Page 6 of 11
III. Method of concomitant variation

 Here the hypothesis is formulated with the idea that tries to find out a causal factor whose
frequency as well as the strength varies continuously with the disease frequency in
different situations.

Factors Diseases

I. Magnesium level in pasture I. Hypomagnesimic tetany in bovine

II. Strength of UV radiation II. Squamous cell carcinoma in animals
III. Milching frequency by a milch-man III. Leptospirosis infection
IV. Frequency of smoking IV. Lung cancer
V. Animals transported the distance before V. Splashing in carcasses
slaughtering

IV. Method of analogy:

 Development of hypothesis by analogy is a method of reasoning.

 In this method the epidemiologist compares the pattern of disease with that of similar
kind of disease which is already understood, because the cause of poorly understood
disease may be similar to the cause of the well understood disease.

 For example, a virus is known to be the causative organism for a kind of mammary tumor
in mice and by applying the method of analogy a hypothesis can be developed as a virus
to be responsible for the development of a similar kind of mammary tumor in dogs.

 The most important drawback of this method is that sometimes it may be dangerously
misleading and the classical example in this regard is that of the famous epidemiologist,
John Snow, who once claimed that yellow fever is caused by sewage. Just immediately
before that he established that cholera was transmitted by sewage and by analogy he
thought that cholera was associated with overcrowding and yellow fever also occurring in
overcrowded population, so sewage may be causative of yellow fever also. But finally it
was proved wrong and it was established as an arthropod borne viral disease.

 Before going for the establishment of a causal association it is important to consider the
following five principles:

 The time sequence of disease events: The exposure to agent should

precede actual occurrence of disease.

 The strength of association: if a factor is causal, there will be a strong

statistical association between causal factor and the event

Page 7 of 11
  Different biological gradients: If a dose-response relationship can be
found between a factor and a disease, the possibility of factor being causal
is increased.

 Consistency: if an association exists in a number of different

circumstances, a causal relationship is probable.

 Compatibility with the existing knowledge: hypothesis should be

compatible with the existing knowledge.

Where all can a measurement process go wrong?

 The success of any research work depends largely on the ‘correctness’ of the
measurements of three categories of variables namely, exposure, outcome and
confounders.

 In general, there are mainly three reasons where an epidemiologist may be wrong in his
in recording his measurements of variables as below:

I. His basic technique of measurements may be wrong, due to out of order instruments,
wrong procedures, poorly educated data collectors, etc. and this situation gives rise the
‘measurement error’.

II. While he takes the measurements on two group of individuals, which are to be compared
and at the same time he treats the two groups in a differential manner, then it causes
‘systemic error or bias’

III. In a third situation, the observed association that the researcher have revealed between
the exposure and the outcome variables, is in reality due to a third, indirectly acting
variable and not actually due to association between exposure and outcome variables.
This is called ‘confounding error’.

Page 8 of 11
Basic Measurement Technique

 Any basic measurement technique should fulfill two very important requirements:

 Validity

 Reliability

I. The measurement technique should be valid. The measurements which the researcher is
making and recording should correctly measure what he really wants to measure.

 For example, if he wishes to measure “jaundice”, then visual examination of mucous

membranes and palpebral conjunctiva may not be very ‘valid’ process, rather
measurement of billirubin would definitely be. This feature is called validity.

 The accuracy or validity of measurement has two important components namely

o Sensitivity, means any subject who actually suffering from a disease should be
identified as positive by the measurement process.

o Specificity means all the individuals who are not having the disease should be
diagnosed as negative by measurement process.

II. Secondly, the measurement process should be reliable. The reliability of a measurement
process is also known as precision or consistency or replicability or repeatability of the
same.

 It refers to the ability of the measurement process to give consistent results when repeated
applications are made.

Evaluation of a diagnostic test

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of diagnostic tests

 These help in assessing the ability of the test to differentiate between diseased and non
diseased animals (compared with standard/existing test).

Test Result Actual Disease Status Total

Present Absent
Positive a b a+b
Negative c d c+d
a+c b+d a+b+c+d

Page 9 of 11
Sensitivity

 Sensitivity of the test is the ability of the test to detect diseased animals. It is likelihood
of positive test results in patients to have the disease (true positive).

 It is also defined as the proportion of diseased animals that test positive.

𝑎
Sensitivity = X 100
(𝑎+𝑐)

Specificity

 Specificity of the test is its ability to detect non-diseased animals. Likelihood of a

negative test results in a patient known to be free of disease (true negative).

𝑑
Specificity = X 100
(𝑏 + 𝑑)
 The probability in both the these cases is expressed as (0-1) or as % Eg. 96% or 0.96%.

 Although a test’s sensitivity and specificity are important properties, clinicians should be
more concerned with a test’s predictive value, i.e., the probability that a test result reflects
the true disease status.

Positive predictive value

 Is the probability of a person/ animal having disease when test is positive.

𝑎
The predictive value (+ve test result) = (𝑎+𝑏)

Negative Predictive value

 Is the probability of person/ animal not having disease when the test is negative.
𝑑
Negative test result = (𝑐+𝑑)

 Predictive values depend on sensitivity, specificity and prevalence of disease.

Page 10 of 11
Crude and specific measures

1. Crude values are expression of the amount of disease and deaths in a population as a
whole without taking in account the structure of the population affected.

2. Specific measures of disease are those that describe disease occurrence in specific
categories of the population related to the host attributes such as age, sex, breed and
method of husbandry etc.

 These are calculated in a similar manner to crude ones except that the numerator and
denominator apply to one or more categories of a population with specific host attributes
e.g. age specific incidence rate, breed specific prevalence etc.

Confidence Interval:

 A confidence interval indicates how confident we are that our estimate is correct.

 We can be 95% sure that the true population value lies within 95% confidence interval.

Bias:

 It is a systematic (as opposed to random) error in design, conduct or analysis of a study

that renders the results invalid.

 This kind of systematic error and it is intrinsic to the method being used and causes a
repeatable and predictable error for each observation.

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