Task 3 - Solving problems of optimization models under uncertainties

Jorge Ferney García

Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia UNAD

Escuela de Ciencias Básicas, Tecnología e Ingeniería-ECBTI
Theory of Decisions-212066_15

Andrea Del Pilar Lopez

Abril de 2021
Criteria of Laplace
1/5 1/5 1/5
FITS FITS
ALTERNATIVE DOES NOT FIT
ACCEPTABLY SUCCESSFULLY
Technology 1 730 685 715
Technology 2 690 525 675
Technology 3 657 750 715
Technology 4 713 687 843
Technology 5 612 678 754

The best alternative for ABC company is technology 4. Using the Laplace Criterion and giv

Wald or pessimistic

FITS FITS
ALTERNATIVE DOES NOT FIT
ACCEPTABLY SUCCESSFULLY

Technology 1 730 685 715

Technology 2 690 525 675
Technology 3 657 750 715
Technology 4 713 687 843
Technology 5 612 678 754

Using the wald or pessimistic approach, the best alternative is tegnology 4, resulting in b
 Optimistic

FITS FITS
ALTERNATIVE DOES NOT FIT
ACCEPTABLY SUCCESSFULLY

Technology 1 730 685 715

Technology 2 690 525 675
Technology 3 657 750 715
Technology 4 713 687 843
Technology 5 612 678 754

Using the optimistic approach, the best alternative is technology 4, resulting in be

Hurwicz
alfa de optimismo 0.7
alfa de pesimista 0.3

0.7 0.3
750 685
732 525
810 657
850 687
754 612

Using the Hurwicz criteria, the best alternative is technology 4, resulting in benefits tot

savage

FITS FITS
ALTERNATIVE DOES NOT FIT
ACCEPTABLY SUCCESSFULLY

Technology 1 730 685 715

Technology 2 690 525 675
Technology 3 657 750 715
Technology 4 713 687 843
Technology 5 612 678 754
Máximo 730 750 843

Matriz de savage

FITS FITS
ALTERNATIVE DOES NOT FIT
ACCEPTABLY SUCCESSFULLY
Technology 1 0 65 128
Technology 2 40 225 168
 Technology 3 73 0 128
Technology 4 17 63 0
Technology 5 118 72 89

Método min max

ALTERNATIVE
EVENTO
Technology 1 128
Technology 2 225
Technology 3 128 MIN
Technology 4 63 63
Technology 5 118

Using the savage alternative, the best alternative is technology 4, resulting in profits totaling 63 in $ million
 1/5 1/5
FITS VERY
FITS WELL
WELL
750 697 715.4
680 732 660.4
723 810 731 Valor Maximo
850 810 780.6 780.6
740 727 702.2

Using the Laplace Criterion and giving as profit in millions of $ a total of 780,6.

FITS VERY
FITS WELL
WELL

750 697 685

680 732 525
723 810 657 criterio maximin
850 810 687 687
740 727 612

rnative is tegnology 4, resulting in benefits totaling $ 687 in $ million"

 FITS VERY
FITS WELL
WELL

750 697 750

680 732 732
723 810 810
850 810 850 850
740 727 754

tive is technology 4, resulting in benefits totaling 850 in millions of $

rwicz

total
730.5
669.9
764.1
801.1 801.1
711.4

chnology 4, resulting in benefits totaling 801,1 in million of $

FITS VERY
FITS WELL
WELL

750 697
680 732
723 810
850 810
740 727
850 810

FITS VERY
FITS WELL
WELL
100 113
170 78
 127 0
0 0
110 83

ng in profits totaling 63 in $ million.

Criteria of Laplace
1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5
Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu
Technology 1 573 453 488 631
Technology 2 595 502 523 519
Technology 3 532 623 623 502
Technology 4 554 460 586 544
Technology 5 578 544 517 449

The best alternative when investing in response through Laplace is technology 4.

Wald or pessimistic
Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu
Technology 1 573 453 488 631
Technology 2 595 502 523 519
Technology 3 532 623 623 502
Technology 4 554 460 586 544
Technology 5 578 544 517 449

The best alternative when investing in response through pessimist is tech

Optimistic
Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu
Technology 1 573 453 488 631
Technology 2 595 502 523 519
 Technology 3 532 623 623 502
Technology 4 554 460 586 544
Technology 5 578 544 517 449

According to the optimistic criterion, the best alternative is 5 obtaining costs of 449

Hurwicz

OPTIMISTIC COEFFICIENT (0,7) 0.7

PESIMIST COEFFICIENT (0,3) 0.3

Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu
Technology 1 573 453 488 631
Technology 2 595 502 523 519
Technology 3 532 623 623 502
Technology 4 554 460 586 544
Technology 5 578 544 517 449

According to Hurwicz's criteria, the best alternative is for the 5 to obtain costs of 487,7

savage

Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu
Technology 1 573 453 488 631
Technology 2 595 502 523 519
Technology 3 532 623 623 502
Technology 4 554 460 586 544
Technology 5 578 544 517 449
min 532 453 488 449

matriz de savage

Fist Fits
ALTERNATIVE Does not fit Fits well
aceeptably successfu

Technology 1 41 0 0 182
Technology 2 63 49 35 70
Technology 3 0 170 135 53
Technology 4 22 7 98 95
 Technology 5 46 91 29 0

metodo min max

ALTERNATIVE EVENTO
Technology 1 182 MIN
Technology 2 87 87
Technology 3 170
Technology 4 98
Technology 5 91
According to the savage, the best alternative is for the 2 con un c
 15
Fits very well VM
500 529
567 541.2
584 572.8
480 524.8 524.8
549 527.4

h Laplace is technology 4.

Fits very well

500 631
567 595
584 623
480 586
549 578 578

n response through pessimist is technology 5.

Fits very well

500 453
567 502
 584 502
480 460
549 449 449

rnative is 5 obtaining costs of 449

Fits very well

500 506.4
567 529.9
584 538.3
480 497.8
549 487.7 487.7

obtain costs of 487,7

Fits very well

500
567
584
480
549
480

Se escoge
MAX DE
el minimo
Fits very well CADA
de cada
FILA
fila
20 182
87 87 87
104 170
0 98
 69 91

best alternative is for the 2 con un costo de 87

 Criteria of Laplace
1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 15
Does not Fist Fits Fits very
ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 400 341 391 362 426
Technology 2 382 396 462 453 457
Technology 3 451 456 324 369 404
Technology 4 359 361 392 458 319
Technology 5 431 453 460 328 469

According to Laplace's criteria, the best alternative is for 4 to give costs of 377,8

Wald or pessimistic
Does not Fist Fits Fits very
ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 400 341 391 362 426
Technology 2 382 396 462 453 457
Technology 3 451 456 324 369 404
Technology 4 359 361 392 458 319
Technology 5 431 453 460 328 469

According to the Wald or pessimistic criterion, the best alternative is 1 obtaining costs of 426

Optimistic
Does not Fist Fits Fits very
ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 400 341 391 362 426
Technology 2 382 396 462 453 457
Technology 3 451 456 324 369 404
Technology 4 359 361 392 458 319
Technology 5 431 453 460 328 469
According to the optimistic criterion, the best alternative is 4 obtaining costs of 319

Hurwicz

OPTIMISTIC COEFFICIENT 0.7

PESIMIST COEFFICIENT 0.3

Does not Fist Fits Fits very

ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 400 341 391 362 426
Technology 2 382 396 462 453 457
Technology 3 451 456 324 369 404
Technology 4 359 361 392 458 319
Technology 5 431 453 460 328 469

According to Hurwicz's criteria, the best alternative is for the 4 to obtain costs of 360,7

savage

Does not Fist Fits Fits very

ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 400 341 391 362 426
Technology 2 382 396 462 453 457
Technology 3 451 456 324 369 404
Technology 4 359 361 392 458 319
Technology 5 431 453 460 328 469
MIN 359 341 324 328 319

matriz de savage

Does not Fist Fits Fits very

ALTERNATIVE Fits well
fit aceeptably successfu well
Technology 1 41 0 67 34 107
Technology 2 23 55 138 125 138
Technology 3 92 115 0 41 85
Technology 4 0 20 68 130 0
Technology 5 72 112 136 0 150

metodo min max

ALTERNATIVE EVENTO MIN

Technology 1 107 107
Technology 2 138
 Technology 3 115
Technology 4 130
Technology 5 150

According to the savage, the best alternative is for the 1 in the cost the 107
 VM
384
430
400.8
377.8 377.8
428.2

426 426
462
456
458
469

obtaining costs of 426

341
382
324
319 319
328
costs of 319

366.5
406
363.6
360.7 360.7
370.3

n costs of 360,7
 PLAYER 2
STRATEGY
A B C
I 34 19 17
PLAYER 1
II 39 11 27

PLAYER 2
STRATEGY
A B C
I 34 19 17 x1
PLAYER 1
II 39 11 27 x2
y1 y2 y3
MINIMAX 39 19 27
19

find an expected payout for player 1 depending on player 2's strategy

pure strategy player 2 expected payoff (player 2)

A PEA=34 X1 + 39X2
B PEB=19 X1 + 11X3
C PEC=17X1 + 27X4

the maximum point of the minimum is in the interpretation of equations peb and pec

PEB= 8X1 + 11
PEC= -10X1 + 27
to obtain the cut-off point we equalize the equations

PE=8X1 + 11+ -10X1 + 27

8X1+10X1= 27-11 X1+X2=1

18X1+27-11 X2=1X1
18X1+16 X2=1. 16/18
X1=16/18 X2=1/9
X1= 0.888888888888889 X2= 0.11111111

X1 0.888888888888889
X2 0.111111111111111
SUMA 1

calculate expected value of the game

VE=(-5X1+39)*Y1+(8X1+11)*Y2+(-10X1+27)*Y3

Condition Y1+Y2+Y3=1

but in this case we see that a region is determined by strategy b and c, that is, strategy a is not in the game

Y1=0

The expected value of the game is

VE=(8X1+11)*Y2+(-10X1+27)*Y3

but the expected value of player 2 is the same expected value of player 1 corresponding to the maximum
to find it the value x1 is substituted in any of the two equations peb and pec

PE_B=8*(16/18)+11=163/9 18.1111111
VE= (8X1+11)*Y2+(-10X1+27)*Y3 VE= 18.1111111

Since the equation depends on x1, the values ​are assigned to x1

The odds for each player are:

Player 1 Strategy 1 16/18

Strategy 2 1/9

Player 2 Strategy 1 0
Strategy 2 4/5
Strategy 3 4/9
MAXMIN
17 Chart T
11 17 45
40
35
no chair point 30
25
20 Estrategia B
15
10

X-0 X-1 5

34 X1 + 39X2 (1-X1) -5X1 + 39 39 34 0

1
19 X1 + 11X3 (1-X1) 8X1 + 11 11 19
17X1 + 27X4 (1-X1) -10X1 + 27 27 17
Row 26 Row
 strategy a is not in the game

responding to the maximum point of the minimums

 Chart Title
Estrategia A

Estrategia C

Estrategia B
CON EL GRAFICO MIRAMOS QUE EL
VALOR ESPERADO SE ENCUENTRA
ENTRE LA ESTRATEGIA C Y B

Row 26 Row 27 Row 28

 PLAYER 2
STRATEGY
A B
I 24 26 MAXMIN 24
PLAYER
II 25 9 9
1
III 17 13 13 24
MINMAX Y1 Y2
25 26
25

PROBABILITY Y1 Y2
Player 2
A B PROBABILITY Y2 = 1-Y1
I 24 26 X1 EP1 = 24Y1+26(1-Y1)
Player 1 II 25 9 X2 EP2 = 25Y1+9(1-Y1)
II 17 13 X3 EP3 = 17Y1+13(1-Y1)

Y1+Y2=1 Y2=1-Y1 X1+X2+X3=1

EP1 = 24Y1+26-26Y1 = -2Y1+26

EP2 = 25Y1+9-9Y1 = 16Y1+9
EP3 = 17Y1+13-13Y1 = 4Y1+13

Y1 EP_1 Chart Title

EP1 = -2Y1+15 0 26 30
A
1 24
25
EP2 = 16Y1+9 0 9 B
C
20
1 25
15
EP3 = 4Y1+13 0 13
10
1 17
5

0
1

Row 22 Row 23 Row

 15

10

0
1

Row 22 Row 23 Row

As we realize in the graphing of the equations of each strategy we have to work with strategies a and b
since they are located at a higher point and strategy c is canceled

The lines that intersect are lines B and C, the maximum is

between them, so we equalize and find the value of X1

A (-)2Y1+26
B 16Y1+9

The equations are equalized:

■8(−2𝑦1+26=16𝑦1+9@−2𝑦1−16𝑦1=9−17@█(−18𝑦1=−17@𝑦1=−17/(−18)

0.9444444444444

Find the value of X2:

■8(𝑥1+𝑥2=1@𝑥2=1−𝑥1@█(𝑥2=1−((−17)/(−18))@𝑥2=0,0555556))

0.0555555555556

Total X1+X2 1

The expected value of the game is calculated:

𝑽𝑬=(−𝟐𝒚𝟏+𝟐𝟔)𝒚𝟏+(𝟏𝟔𝒚𝟏+𝟗)𝒚𝟐
 ■8(𝑃𝐸_2=−2𝑦1+26@𝑃𝐸_2=−2∗1−((−17)/(−18))+26@𝑃𝐸_2=24,111111)

24.1111111

Therefore we have to:

𝑽𝑬=(−𝟐𝒚𝟏+𝟐𝟔)𝒚𝟏+(−𝟏𝟔𝒙𝟏+𝟗)𝒚𝟐

𝑽𝑬=24,11111

The expected value for both players is 24,111

X1+X2+X3=1 X3=1 X1+X2=1

𝑥2=(217/9−16𝑥3)/26
■8(26𝑥2+16𝑥3=217/9@𝑥2+𝑥3=1@𝑥2=1+𝑥3)
26𝑥2=217/9−16𝑥3

1−𝑥3=(217/9−16𝑥3)/26 26−26𝑥3=217/9−16𝑥3 −10𝑥3=217/9−26

The odds for each player are:

Player 1 Strategy 1 (-)17/-18

Strategy 2 1-(-17/-18)

Player 2 Strategy 1 1
Strategy 2 (-)8/9
Strategy 3 0
 y1=0 Y1=1
26 24
9 25
13 17

Chart Title
A

B
C

2 Row 23 Row 24
 2

2 Row 23 Row 24

=−17@𝑦1=−17/(−18)@𝑦1=0,9444444))
 8/9

−10𝑥3=217/9−26
-1.8888889
 MAXIMIN

PLAYER 1 MÁXMÍN
76 73 47 58 47 52
43 63 53 29 29
PLAYER 2
76 71 52 69 52
49 77 63 37 37
MÍNMÁX 76 77 63 69
63

PROBABILITY PLAYER 1
P1 0 76 73 47 58
P2 0 43 63 53 29
PLAYER 2
P3 0.6046511628 76 71 52 69
P4 0 49 77 63 37
SUMA 0.6046511628
Vesperado 11406 14539 11618 9091

MÁX Z = V
 MINIMAX

PLAYER 1
76 73 47 58
43 63 53 29
PLAYER 2
76 71 52 69
49 77 63 37
MÍNMÁX 76 77 63 69
63

PROBABILITY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SUMA
0 0 0.74418605 0.25581395 1

PLAYER 1
76 73 47 58
43 63 53 29
PLAYER 2
76 71 52 69
49 77 63 37
14539
 MÁXMÍN
47 52
29
52
37

VEsperado
13031
9674
13722
11654
0
MIN Z = V 56.3488372
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-391), New Delhi: Laxmi
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