Sembuh Sakit

VitC + 20 10 30
VitC - 40 30 70
60 40 100

Event ASembuh A' Sakit P(A|B) 0.666667

Event B VitC + B' VitC - P(B|A) 0.333333 0.333333
P(B|A') 0.25
P(A) 0.6 P(A') 0.4 P(A|B') 0.571429
P(B) 0.3 P(B') 0.7 P(B'|A') 0.75
AÇB Sembuh & 20 AÈB Sembuh atau VitC+
P(AÇB) 0.2 P(AÈB) 0.7 0.7 P(AÇB)=P(B|A)*P(A) 0.2

Sembuh Sakit
VitC + 20 10 30
VitC - 40 30 70
60 40 100

Sembuh Sakit P(A|B) P(A'|B)

VitC + 0.2 0.1 0.3 P(A|B') P(A'|B')
VitC - 0.4 0.3 0.7 P(A) P(A')
0.6 0.4 1

Sembuh Sakit
VitC + 0.67 0.33 1
VitC - 0.57 0.43 1
0.60 0.40 1

Sembuh Sakit
VitC + 0.33 0.25 0.3
VitC - 0.67 0.75 0.7
1 1 1
 Event A = Alzhaimer M&77= Man & 77 years old
Event H = Healthy W&76= Women & 76 years old
W&82= Women & 82 years old
P(A|M&77)= 0.049 --> P(H|M&77)= 0.951
P(A|W&76)= 0.023 --> P(H|W&76)= 0.977
P(A|W&82)= 0.078 --> P(H|W&82)= 0.922
Possibility Possible Outcomes Probability Outcomes
No # of Event A M&77 W&76 W&82 M&77 W&76 W&82
1 0 H H H 0.951 0.977 0.922
2 1 A H H 0.049 0.977 0.922
3 1 H A H 0.951 0.023 0.922
4 1 H H A 0.951 0.977 0.078
5 2 A A H 0.049 0.023 0.922
6 2 A H A 0.049 0.977 0.078
7 2 H A A 0.951 0.023 0.078
8 3 A A A 0.049 0.023 0.078
Total
ty Outcomes
All Subject
0.85666
0.04414
0.02017
0.07247
0.00104
0.00373
0.00171
0.00009
1.00000
 Proportion born Probability of Probability of LBW
Length of
at this LBW at this and this gestational
Gestation
gestational age gestational age age
< 20 weeks 0.0004 0.54 0.000216
20 – 27 weeks 0.0059 0.813 0.0047967
28 – 36 weeks 0.0855 0.379 0.0324045
> 36 weeks 0.9082 0.035 0.031787
Total 1 0.0692042
Suppose
event A = the mother has covid-19
event B = the father has covid-19
A Ç B = both the mother and father have covid-19
P(A) = 0.1
P(B) = 0.1
P(A Ç B) = 0.02

The events A and B independent if…

P(A Ç B) = P(A) · P(B)
P(A) · P(B) = 0.01
Thus
P(A Ç B) ≠ P(A) · P(B) --> The events A and B are not independent

Probability the mother or father have covid-19

P(A È B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A Ç B)
P(A È B) = 0.18
Probability neither the mother nor father have covid-19
1 - P(AÈB) = 0.82
Binomial Distribution
sample size (n) = 15
Every subject has two possibility event
Event S = case = Sick
Event H = Health
P(S) = 0.2
P(H) = 1-P(S) = 0.8

The number of possibility 6 subjects Sick over 15 subjects is 15 Combination 6 = 15!/(6!*9!) = 5005
Subject
Possibility 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Probability
1 S S S S S S H H H H H H H H H (0.2)^6*(0.8)^9= 0.000009
2 S S S S S H S H H H H H H H H (0.2)^6*(0.8)^9= 0.000009
…

…
5005 H H H H H H H H H S S S S S S (0.2)^6*(0.8)^9= 0.000009
P(k=6)= Probability of obtaining 6 cases in a class of 15 students = 5005*0.2^6*(0.8)^9 = 0.043
P(k≤5)=P(k<6)=Probability of obtaining at least 5 cases in class of 15 students = P(k=0)+P(k=1)+...+P(k=5)
P(k≥6) = P(k=6)+P(k=7)+…+P(k=15) = 1-P(k≤5) =probability of obtaining 6 or more cases = 0.061
--> BINOM.DIST(6,15,0.2,FALSE)
--> BINOM.DIST(5,15,0.2,TRUE)
--> 1-BINOM.DIST(5,15,0.2,TRUE)
RT-PCR Sensitivity Specificity PPV NPV
Diagnosis
Test + - Total
+ 214 25 239 0.433 0.981 0.895 0.819
- 280 1268 1548
Total 494 1293 1787
Virus Culture
Diagnosis
Test + - Total
+ 37 14 51 0.285 0.975 0.725 0.852
- 93 536 629
Total 130 550 680
RT-PCR or culture
Diagnosis
Test + - Total
+ 235 258 0.442 - 0.911 -
-
Total 532 1835
RT-PCR and culture
Diagnosis
Test + - Total
+ - 0.905 - 0.926
- 239 258
Total 264 374