VOLUME 25, ISSUE 3, MAY 2021

J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78

Development and movement of waves in zonal westerlies of southern hemisphere

and long range forecast of all India monsoon rainfall
Vinod Kumar1 and M. Satya Kumar2
1Shyam Bhawan, Ashok Nagar, Road No. 11, Kankarbagh Colony, Patna- 800020
2H.No. 6-3-565, Flat No. 301, Akshaya Aparment, Somajiguda, Hyderabad-500082

Corresponding author: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Large scale processes over the land, oceans and atmosphere are involved in the development of Indian summer monsoon. The close relationship between
the atmospheric circulation over the near equatorial regions of South Indian Ocean, the difference in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between the western
and eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the waves in zonal westerlies of Southern Hemisphere, have been found useful in long range forecasting of All India
Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR). The role of waves in zonal westerlies of Southern Hemisphere moving across South Indian Ocean, in the development of
Indian summer monsoon has been studied. Reanalysed NCEP/NCAR (National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric
Research) data of geo-potential height and vector wind fields at 850/700 hPa level for the period 1948-2020, have been used in the study. It has been
shown that composite anomaly field of geo-potential height/vector wind at 850/700 hPa level for the period April-May from the region bounded by
40ᵒW-140ᵒE and 40ᵒS-30ᵒN, are helpful in identifying the circulation features that are related to inter-annual variability in AIMR. Some of the features
identified are: (i) a pair of positive and negative anomalies along 40ᵒS lat., (ii) continuous negative anomalies from 40ᵒS to 30ᵒN, (iii) region of negative
anomalies lying to the north of positive anomalies along 40ᵒS, (iv) Cyclonic circulation/trough over Arabian Sea, etc. Making use of the presence of these
features during April-May for a period of 50 years (1948-1997), a methodology has been developed for quantitative forecast of AIMR. The results have
been verified using data for 23 year period (1998-2020). Verification results have shown that the features identified in 850 hPa level geo-potential height
and vector wind fields are able to capture the signals relating to the development of Indian summer monsoon. The new methodology could be used in
preparing real time long range forecast of AIMR.

Key words: Southwest monsoon, Geo-potential height, Vector wind anomaly, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, Long range forecast.

INTRODUCTION searching for new parameters. The improved version of the

parametric model of IMD (Gowariker et al., 1989) had used
Issuing Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon rainfall over
16 global and regional parameters. Its modified version, in
India, had been necessitated after the serious countrywide
use in IMD since 2003, has 8 parameters (Rajeevan et al.,
drought and famine in 1877. The first LRF of Southwest
2004). Some important observations, which have their origin
Monsoon rainfall had been issued by India Meteorological
in South Indian Ocean and relating to development of Indian
Department (IMD) in 1886 (Blandford, 1884). Since then the
Summer Monsoon, had been reported earlier are: (i) Cross
operational LRF of rainfall during Southwest Monsoon
Equatorial Flow of southeast trades into North Indian Ocean,
season (June-September) is issued by IMD every year. Before
Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, (Findlator, 1969), (ii) slowly
hand information on the rainfall during Southwest Monsoon is
propagating west-east mode with 30-60 day period originating
important as it accounts for over 75% of the annual rainfall in
from South Indian Ocean (Madden and Julian, 1972), (iii)
most parts of India, outside Tamil Nadu and Jammu and
recognition of South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone as an
Kashmir. The economy of India is substantially dependent on
important element of Southwest Monsoon circulation system
agriculture, which, in spite of development of irrigation
(Onkari Prasad, 1981) and (iv) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in
facilities, is still largely rain-fed. Failure of Southwest
tropical Indian Ocean SST field (Ashok et al., 2001), and (v)
Monsoon, adversely affects the agricultural production and
the role of zonal westerlies of Southern Hemisphere (Kumar,
hence the Indian economy. Advance information on likely
et al., 2014, 2016). The relationship between the activity of
performance of monsoon helps government agencies to plan
South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone and South West
their strategy to maximize food grain production. A reliable
Monsoon, had been used to develop South Indian Ocean
Long Range Forecast available well in time could help
Convergence Zone model of Long Range Forecast of
farmers, as well as the agencies engaged in crop insurance.
monsoon rainfall for India as a whole, its 36 meteorological
LRF of Southwest Monsoon is also important for those
subdivisions and the districts of the states of Tamil Nadu,
sectors of economy, which are dependent on agriculture for
Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra
their input. Similarly, LRF of Southwest Monsoon rainfall is
and Goa (Gupta and Onkari Prasad, 1992; Onkari Prasad, et
useful in several other sectors and in overall economic
al., 2010a,b; Onkari Prasad and Singh, 2012, 2013; Onkari
development of India.
Prasad, et al., 2014, 2016). The IOD is defined as the
Inter-annual variability in Indian summer monsoon takes difference in SST between the tropical western and eastern
place in response to several large scale anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. The AIMR is enhanced (decreased)
general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans. Research in during positive (negative) IOD events. These developments
long range forecasting had been mainly directed towards highlighted the important role played by South Indian Ocean

66
Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar
in the development of Southwest Monsoon. Arrival of
Southeast trades into North Indian Ocean, results in the onset
of monsoon over Kerala. Its sustenance is essential for further
advance of monsoon over different regions of India.
Thereafter, the performance of Southwest Monsoon during
the remaining period of monsoon season also depends on
Cross Equatorial Flow. The role of Southeast trades, reaching
the plains of north India by making an inverted “S” trajectory
which begins air flow from the subtropical high of South
Indian Ocean (Mascarene High, 40ᵒS, 050ᵒE), in
strengthening and weakening of Southwest Monsoon, had
been well known to Indian Meteorologists as early as 1940s,
when ship observations became available from South Indian
Ocean and were regularly plotted on surface weather maps.
The strengthening and weakening of Mascarene High occurs
in association with the arrival of a Ridge/trough in zonal
westerlies of Southern Hemisphere while they move from the
west coast of South Africa to the west coast of Australia
across South Indian Ocean.
The major changes in zonal westerlies of Southern
Hemisphere could be traced in the development of El Nino/La
Nina, which is a major event that affects the global weather;
SST anomalies in Eastern Pacific are directly related with the
anomalies in the position and intensity of low level
subtropical anticyclones over Pacific. These low level
subtropical anticyclones in the eastern Pacific form a chain of
low level subtropical anticyclones throughout the global
subtropics. If one anticyclone displays an anomalous position
or intensity, the whole global chain of low level subtropical
anticyclones manifest anomalies in their position and intensity
(Asnani and Varma, 2007). The most noteworthy surface
synoptic feature over Southern Africa is the rhythmic
eastward movement of troughs and ridges across the south
and east coasts of Africa. The normal variation of pressure at
25°S along the southeast coast over periods of 4 to 7 days is
from 1010 to 1025 hPa, but in extreme cases a variation of
about 30 hPa can also occur once in a month or two (Kumar,
1992). Subtropical anticyclone located between 140ᵒE-
080ᵒW/30ᵒS-40ᵒS weakens and shifts southward (South of
40ᵒS/45ᵒS/50ᵒS) and extra tropical lows located south of 40ᵒS
shift northwards from their position during El-Nino years
(Kumar et al., 2017). Both the position and the intensity of
low level subtropical anticyclone, when they arrive over
South Indian Ocean, affect the Southeast trades, which in turn
affect the Cross Equatorial Flow in North Indian Ocean and,
thereby, Southwest Monsoon over India. The availability of
long period data of geo-potential height/vector wind fields at
850/700 hPa level from NOAA/Earth System Research
Laboratory’s website, gave an opportunity to study the
changes in subtropical anticyclones of South Indian Ocean in
relation to performance of Southwest Monsoon over India.
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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78
Moisture feed from South Indian Ocean to North Indian
Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal), gets augmented by
upper air cyclonic circulations and upper air troughs. A few
upper air troughs become deep (south of 30°S-20°S) after
reaching South Indian Ocean to the east of 60°E during
monsoon season. The absence of moderate/deep upper air
troughs in South Indian Ocean during South West Monsoon
season has been seen occurring more commonly in deficient
monsoon years (Kumar et al., 2014). The anomalies in 850
hPa meridional wind field have shown that positive anomalies
are present along the west coast of India during normal/excess
monsoon months, e.g., Jul 2009; Jun, Aug and Sep 2011. The
negative anomalies are present during deficient months, e.g.,
Jul 2002, 2004, Jun 2009 and Jul 2011 (Kumar, et al., 2011,
2016). The inverse relationship between El Nino and ISMR is
statistically significant only during and at the end of the
monsoon season (Rajeevan and McPhaden, 2004). Most of
the severe droughts over India are associated with El Nino.
However, only less than half of El Nino events are associated
with deficient rainfall over India. In other El Nino years,
ISMR was either normal or in excess. A recent study
suggested that El Nino with warmest SST anomalies in the
Central Pacific are more effective in focusing drought
producing subsidence over India than events with the warmest
SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Rajeevan and
Pai, 2007). In this paper, an attempt has been made to find the
relationship between the synoptic conditions, i.e., areas of
positive and negative anomalies in geo-potential height and
vector wind field at 850/700 hPa levels from 040ᵒW-180ᵒ-
080ᵒW along 40°S during the pre-monsoon months of April-
May and the performance of SWM during June-September.
The synoptic conditions have been used to develop a
methodology for long range forecasting of AIMR in 3
categories, i.e., normal (97% ± 6%), below normal (92%
±6%) and deficient (88% ±6%). AIMR refers to the Long
Period Average (LPA) rainfall for Southwest Monsoon season
(June-September) for India as a whole. It is 88 cm for the 50
year period of 1961-2010.
DATA USED AND METHODOLOGY
All India Monsoon Rainfall data from 1948 to 2020 had been
collected from IMD’s website. Plots of composite anomaly of
geo-potential height and vector wind at 850/700 hPa level for
the period April-May and June-September 1948-2020 had
been prepared using NOAA /Earth System Research
Laboratory‘s website (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi/bin/data/composite).
The anomalies have been computed from the mean for a
period of 30 years (1981-2010). The synoptic conditions
which developed in geo-potential height and vector wind
fields at 850/700 hPa levels from 040ᵒW-180ᵒ-080ᵒW along
40ᵒS during the pre-monsoon months of April-May have been
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78
studied in relation to development of South West Monsoon
over India. The synoptic conditions, i.e., High and Low in
geo-potential field and cyclonic and anti-cyclonic flow in
wind field have been assigned a number, ranging from -1 to 4
and used to develop a methodology for long range forecasting
of AIMR in 3 categories, i.e., normal (97% ± 6%), below
normal (92% ± 6% ) and deficient (88% ±6%). AIMR refers
to the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for Southwest
Monsoon season (June-September) for India as a whole. It is
88 cm for the 50 year period of 1960-2010.
Analysis of vector wind and geo-potential height anomaly
fields at 850 hPa level
As mentioned above, National Centres for Environmental
Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research
reanalysis data of composite anomalies of vector wind and
geo-potential height at 850 hPa level during pre-monsoon
months of April-May and monsoon months of June-
September, for a period of 73 years (1948-2020), have been
studied. Important features in both the fields, which could be
used in preparing LRF of rainfall during June-September, for
India as a whole, have been identified.
Vector wind
The presence of a Cyclonic Circulation/Trough at 850 hPa
level over Arabian Sea during southwest monsoon (June-
September) results in reduction in moisture supply over India
and adversely affect monsoon rainfall. Out of 15 deficient
monsoon years during the period of study (Table 1), a
Cyclonic Circulation/Trough had been present in National
Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for
Atmospheric Research 850 hPa level vector wind composite
anomaly field for the period June-September in 11 (73%)
years (1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1987,
2009 and 2015). Similarly, a Cyclonic Circulation/Trough had
been present in the composite anomaly field during the period
Apr-May in 10 years (1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1974, 1986,
1987, 1992, 1999 and 2014). Though 1992 and 1999 were not
deficient monsoon years, AIMR was below normal by 8% and
4%, respectively in these two years. In 1992, monsoon
rainfall, for India as a whole, was in deficient category during
June-July. Improvement in rainfall had taken place from
August onwards. There were only two deficient monsoon
years, i.e., 2002 and 2004, when this synoptic situation was
absent during April-May as well as during June-September.
Thus, a Cyclonic Circulation/Trough had been present over
Arabian Sea in the vector wind composite anomaly field for
the period April-May at 850 hPa level in 8 deficient and one
below normal monsoon year (1992). Therefore, the
absence/presence of a Cyclonic Circulation/Trough over the
Arabian Sea at 850 hPa level vector wind composite anomaly
68
Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar
during April–May has been considered as a parameter and
used in working out a methodology for long range forecast of
monsoon rainfall in India.
Geo-Potential height
In the description of 850 hPa geo-potential height composite
anomaly field, a continuous region of positive (negative)
anomaly field has been referred to as a high (low). During
April-May, a low had been present from 080ᵒW-180ᵒ-120ᵒE
during 9 deficient monsoon years (1951, 1965, 1966, 1972,
1979 (El Nino from September-November), 1982, 1986, 2009
and 2015). During 12 deficient monsoon years (1951, 1965,
1966: a continuous Cyclonic Circulation from 100ᵒW-160ᵒW-
120ᵒE from north of 35ᵒS connected by a Col region, 1972,
1979, 1982, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, 2009 and 2015) a
continuous low had been present in June-September anomaly.
During the deficient monsoon years 1968, 1974 and 2014, a
continuous low had not been present in 850 geo-potential
height anomaly field over east Pacific either during Apr-May
or June-September. In 1966, which was not an El Nino year, a
continuous low had been present during Apr-May and also
during June-September. During La Nina year 1974, a
continuous high had been present from 080ᵒW-160ᵒW during
June-September and a continuous high from 080ᵒW-180ᵒ
during Apr-May in 2014 (Table 3). In 1968, neither
continuous low nor continuous high had been present during
April-May and June-September. During 11 deficient
monsoons, with El Nino also present, continuous low had
been observed over East Pacific during June-September.
A continuous low had been present over East Pacific along
40ᵒS during Apr-May in normal/below normal monsoon
rainfall years in India, 1949, 1952, 1957 (El Nino), 1958 (El
Nino), 1959, 1969 (El Nino), 1973, 1980, 1981, 1991 (El
Nino), 1993, 1994 (El Nino from August-September-
October), 1997 (El Nino) and 2016 (La Nino from July-
August-September). During 1948, 1952, 1953 (El Nino), 1976
(El Nino), 1980, 1992 (El Nino), 1999, 2005 and 2006 (El
Nino August-September-October), continuous low had been
observed in June-September anomaly. During 3 El Nino years
1963 (a continuous low from 40ᵒS), 1968 (EL- Nino from
September-October-November) and 1977 (El Nino from
August-September-October), continuous low had not been
observed over East Pacific. The years 1983 (La Nina from
August-September-October), 1998 (La Nina from June-July-
August) and 2016 (La Nina from July-August-September) had
not been considered under El Nino years as La Nina
Conditions had also appeared in these years. Out of 24 El
Nino years (1951,1953, 1957, 1958, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1969,
1972, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1994,
1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2015), continuous low in
geo-potential height of 850 level had been observed in 21
Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar
(87%) years, including 12 deficient monsoon years (Kumar et
al., 2017). So, weight-age has been given to the presence of El
Nino conditions in East Pacific in working out a methodology
for LRF of monsoon rainfall based on the features that
develop in 850 hPa geo-potential height composite anomaly
during April-May. The correlation coefficient has been
calculated when continuous low was observed over East
Pacific between 1948 to 1997 for 29 years study period and it
showed that continuous low is negatively correlated
(Rajeevan and Mcphaden 2004, Rajeevan and Pai, 2007) with
AIMR (-0.23), although the correlation coefficient is not
significant. During the years 1998, 2009, 2015 and 2016, of
verification period, a continuous low had been observed over
East pacific and normal to deficient rainfall had occurred
during 1998 and 2016, 2009 and 2015 respectively as per
observed low significant correlation coefficient.
A continuous high had been present over East Pacific along
40ᵒS during Apr-May in 18 years: 1974 (La Nina), 1977 (El
Nino from August-September-October), 1983 (La Nina, from
August-September-October), 1984 (La Nina from September-
October-November), 1985 (La Nina), 1996, 2000 (La Nina),
2001, 2003, 2005, 2007 (La Nina), 2008 (La Nina up to May-
June-July), 2010 (La Nina), 2011 (La Nina), 2012, 2013, 2017
(La Nina from September-October-November, and 2018).
Except 1974, AIMR normal was normal/below normal during
17 years, when a continuous high was present over East
Pacific during Apr-May. A continuous high had also been
present during June-September in 1974 (La Nina), 1983 (La
Nina), 1984(La Nina), 1988 (La Nina), 1989 (La Nina), 1995
(La Nina), 1998 (La Nina from June-July-August), 2000 (La
Nina), 2007 (La Nina) 2008 (La Nina), 2010 (La Nina), 2011,
2016 (La Nina) and 2017 (La Nina). Thus, out of 25 La Nina
years (1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974,
1975, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1988, 1989 (La Nina up to April-
May-June), 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011,
2016 ( La Nina from July-August-September), 2017, a
continuous high had been present during April-May/June-
September in 15 (60%) years. The correlation coefficient has
been calculated when continuous high was observed over East
Pacific from 1977 to 2018 for 18 years period. It showed that
continuous high is positively correlated (0.39), with AIMR,
although the correlation coefficient is not significant. A
weight-age has been given to the presence of La Nina
conditions in East Pacific in working out a methodology for
LRF of monsoon rainfall in India.
As mentioned above, development of alternate spells of low
and high is the most important feature of geo-potential
anomaly field. It is common to all years with some year to
year variations. This is related to the development and
movement of trough/ridge system of zonal westerlies of
Southern Hemisphere (Kumar, 1992). During the periods of
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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78
cold fronts moving in quick succession across Southeast
Africa-South Indian Ocean, the subtropical pressure ridge
over South Indian Ocean is not maintained. This leads to
weakening in Cross Equatorial Flow (1968 and 2002)
(Kumar, 1992). As a consequence the strength of monsoon
westerlies decreases and horizontal wind shear becomes
insignificant or even negative over Arabian Sea and Bay of
Bengal. Therefore, a combination of high-low along 40ᵒS
between 040ᵒW-120ᵒE is essential for normal monsoon
rainfall over India. The methodology developed for LRF of
monsoon rainfall is based on making use of the year to year
variations in this feature. In some of the years, the positive
and negative anomaly fields are weak at 850 hPa. In those
years, the anomaly fields at 700 hPa level has also been
examined to know the strength of the anomalies at this level.
If the anomaly field is strong at 700 hPa level, then it is
expected that it will descend in coming days and strengthen
the anomalies at 850 hPa level. Similarly, if there is any
difficulty in obtaining the horizontal width of high and low in
geo-potential field, vector wind anomaly field has also been
examined.
Quantifying the features developing in 85O hPa Geo-
Potential height and Vector wind anomaly fields
Different features developing in zonal westerlies of Southern
Hemisphere during pre-monsoon months of April-May
contain signals about the coming monsoon. They could be
used to prepare quantitative LRF of monsoon rainfall in India.
For doing quantitative LRF, the features have to be
quantified. An attempt has been made here to quantify these
features by assigning a point, ranging from -1 to 4 to each
individual feature in a year. Sum of all the points in a year,
called as Southern Hemispheric Zonal Westerlies Activity
Index (SHZWAI), has been obtained. SHZWAI (=1)
corresponds to only one high or a pair of high and weak
low/weak high and low. Similarly, SHZWAI (=2)
corresponds to a pair of high and low. Identification of some
of the important features, assigning points to each feature in
an individual year has been discussed below, in brief.
Alternate spells of High and Low in 850 hPa level geo-
potential height field over South Indian Ocean (040ᵒW-
120ᵒE)
The 850 hPa level geo-potential height anomaly field for
2011, a normal monsoon year (2% more AIMR), is shown in
Figure 1. The anomaly field, from Indian Ocean to Pacific, is
dominated by alternate High and Low. The features in the
anomaly field and number assigned to them are: (i) a pair of
High and Low between 030ᵒW-070ᵒE, 2 points, (ii) A High
between 080ᵒE-120ᵒE, 1 point and (iii) A continuous High
from 080ᵒW-180ᵒ, 1 point. Therefore, Southern Hemisphere
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78 Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar

Zonal Westerlies Activity Index (SHZWAI) for the year 2011
becomes 4. SHZWAI (=4) corresponds to development of an
‘Above Normal’ AIMR year. The realized rainfall during
2011 was 2% more than AIMR (Table 2).
The geo-potential height anomaly field for 1972 is shown in
Figure 2. The features in anomaly field and the number
assigned to them are: (i) A weak high of width 20ᵒ long.
(040ᵒW-020ᵒW) and a low from 010ᵒW-090ᵒE, 1 point, (ii) a
continuous low of width 110ᵒ long. (090ᵒW-160ᵒE), -1 point.
The total point comes to 0. The number zero corresponds to
“Markedly Deficient” AIMR. The realised AIMR during 1972
was 82% (Table 1).

Table 1. Brief description of the features in 850 hPa geo-potential height and vector wind anomaly fields
along 40ᵒS from 040ᵒW-120ᵒE and points (a numerical value) assigned to them

S. No. Features in 850 hPa geo-potential height or vector wind anomaly fields Points assigned
1 A pair of H and L. The H and L should have longitudinal and latitudinal width of at least 25◦ long. 2
and 5ᵒ lat. respectively. The distance separating them should not be more than 20ᵒ long.
2 Only one H or a pair of a H and weak L/weak H and a L 1
3 Only one L or a pair of a weak H and a weak L 0
4 A continuous H from 080ᵒW-150ᵒW or 120ᵒW-170ᵒE (horizontal width at least 070 long. Starting 1
from at least 120ᵒW)
A continuous L from 080ᵒW-150ᵒW or 120ᵒW-170ᵒE (horizontal width at least 070ᵒ long. starting -1
from at least 120ᵒW)
5 A continuous H from 080ᵒW-120ᵒE (horizontal width - 140ᵒ long.) 2
A continuous L from 080ᵒW-120ᵒE (horizontal width - 140ᵒ long.) -2
6 A continuous H of least 040ᵒ long. horizontal width but less than 070ᵒ long. (starting from at least 0.5
120ᵒW)
A continuous L of least 040ᵒ long. horizontal width but less than 070ᵒ long. (starting from at least -0.5
120ᵒW)
7 Continuous negative anomaly from 40ᵒ S to 30ᵒ N along 090ᵒ E and is also seen from 060ᵒ S 4
Continuous negative anomaly from 40ᵒ S to 30ᵒ N along 090ᵒ E but is not seen from 060ᵒ S 1
8 Presence of a region of negative anomalies north of positive anomalies along 40S (low is seen north 2
of high)
9 Presence of Cycir/Tr over Arabian Sea, in anomaly of 850 hPa vector wind for April-May having -1
latitudinal width ≥5ᵒ
Presence of Cycir/Tr over Arabian Sea, in anomaly of 850 hPa vector wind for April-May having -0.5
latitudinal width < 5ᵒ

Legend: H: High, L:Low, Cycir: Cyclonic circulation, Tr: Trough Note: Points 0 or less- markedly deficient, 0 to 1 – deficient, 1.5-
below normal, 2.0 but less than 3- normal, 3- active normal, 4- above normal and more than 4- excess rainfall.

Figure 1. 850 hPa geo-potential height (m) composite anomaly Apr-May 2011.

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Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78

Continuous negative geo-potential height anomaly field already present during the pre-monsoon months of April-May
from 40ᵒS-30ᵒN 1961. 4 points have been assigned to this situation (Table 2).
Only 1 point would have been assigned, had the continuous
The geo-potential height anomaly filed for 1961 is shown in
anomaly field not been present from 40ᵒS-30ᵒN in the
Figure 3a. A continuous negative anomaly field is seen from
extended chart (Figure 3b). A continuous negative anomaly
40ᵒS to 25ᵒN (it extends even up to 30ᵒN in the extended chart
field from 60ᵒS to 30ᵒN had been present in 15 years: 1948
which is not shown here) covering areas west of 120ᵒE,
(Jun-Sep), 1950, 1955, 1956, 1957 (Jun-Sep), 1958, 1959
including India. Under these conditions, anomaly has to be
(Jun-Sep), 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1970, 1971 and
viewed from 60ᵒS also (Figure 3b). A continuous negative
1975. During these years normal to excess rainfall had
anomaly field is seen from 60ᵒS. It again covers whole of
occurred over India (Table 2). During 2008, continuous low
India. A continuous negative anomaly field from 40ᵒS
had been observed at 700 hPa from 150ᵒE to 150ᵒW, but it
extending up to 30ᵒN covering Indian subcontinent shows that
was not found to be continuous from 60ᵒS.
favourable conditions for moisture supply over India were

Figure 2. 850 hPa geo-potential height (m) composite anomaly April-May 1972

Figure 3a. 850 hPa geo-potential height (m) composite anomaly April May 1961

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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78 Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar

Figure 3b. 850 hPa geo-potential height (m) composite anomaly April May 1961 from 60ᵒS

Figure 4. 850 hPa geo-potential height (m) composite anomaly April May 1999

Figure 5. 850 hPa vector wind anomaly Apr-May 1986

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Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78

A region of negative anomalies to the north of positive
anomalies
In the year 1999 AIMR was 4% less than normal. The geo-
potential height anomaly field for the year 1999 is shown in
Figure 4. A high is present from 070ᵒE-160ᵒW (considered up
to 120ᵒE only) at 40ᵒS and a low to the north of this high. 2
points have been assigned to this feature (Table 2). A low to
the north of a high at 40ᵒS was also present during 1969,
1982, 1989, 1991, 1995, 1997 and 2006.
Cyclonic circulation/Trough over North Indian
Ocean/Arabian Sea
In 1999 (Figure 5), a Cyclonic circulation is seen over the
Arabian Sea from north of equator and between 045ᵒ-070ᵒE
and a trough continues up to 09ᵒN. The point assigned for this
situation is -1. A Cyclonic Circulation and a Trough had been
present in 1991 and 1992 also. Below normal AIMR had been
recorded during both the years.
In 1992 trough had continued from 05ᵒN to 09ᵒN. As the area
occupied by the Cyclonic Circulation/Trough was less, the
point assigned was 0.5 (Table 2)
LONG RANGE FORECAST
Different features developing in zonal westerlies of Southern
Hemisphere, as discussed above, are precursors to
development of southwest monsoon over India during June-
September. In order to quantify these features, an index,
ranging from 4 to -2 (Table 1) has been assigned to them and
their sum has been named as Southern Hemispheric Zonal
Westerlies Activity Index (SHZWAI). SHZWAI has been
obtained for each year during a period of 73 years (1948-
2020). AIMR, features that developed in 850 hPa geo-
potential height and vector wind anomaly fields during
April-May, points given to these features, SHZWAI, duration
of El Nino/La Nina, in each year during the Methodology
Development Period (1948-1997) are give in Table 2.

Table 2. AIMR, Features in 850 hPa level geo-potential height/vector wind anomaly fields over Indian and Pacific Oceans (040ᵒW-180ᵒ-
080ᵒW) at 40ºS, Southern Hemisphere Zonal Westerly Activity Index (SHZWAI), forecast AIMR and duration of El Nino/La Nina
conditions during MDP (1948-1997)

Year (AIMR as Features in 850 hap geo- potential height/vector wind SHZWAI Qualitative and Duration of El Nino/
% of LPA) anomaly fields during April-May and (points given) quantitative( as % La Nina conditions
of LPA) Forecast during the year
of AMIR
1948 (101.8) H-L bet 040W-080E/40S, (2), H bet 088E-120E/40S, (1), 4 AN, 108 Not available
Cont low from 40S to 30N but not from 60S, (1).
1949 (100.5) H-L bet 015W-085E/40S, (2), H 090E-120E/40S, (1), Cont 2 N , 97.2 NA
low from 080W-160W north of 40S, (-1)
1950 (103.7) Cont low from 40S-30N, it is also observed from 60S, (4) 4 AN, 108 La Nina , Dec-Jan-
Feb (DJF) to JJA
1951 (81.3) H-L (weak) bet 040W- 040E/40S, (1.0), Cont low from -2.0 MD, 81.6 EL Nino , MJJ –
080W-090E along 40S, (-2). Cycir at 850 hPa bet 040E- NDJ
060E/9N-20N, (-1).
1952 (91.8) H-L bet 040W-080E/40S, (2), Two lows bet 095W – 170W, 1.5 BN, 97 EL Nino contd. for
connected with a Col region, north of 40S, (-0.5). one month DJF
1953 (109.9) H-L bet 040W-105E/40S, (2). 2 N, 99.2 EL Nino, JFM-NDJ
1954 (103.5) H-L bet 040W-060E/40S, (2), H from 060E-100E/40S (1). 4 AN, 108 LAN, AMJ- NDJ
Cont L from 40S to 30N but not from 60S, (1)
1955 (110.1) Cont L from 40S-30N, also observed from 060S, (4). 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, Full Year
(FY)
1956 (113.6) Cont L from 40S-30N, also observed from 060S, (4). 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, DJF -
ASO
1957 (97.6) AC and Cycir from 040W-050E/40S, (2), AC and Cycir 2 N, 99.2 EL Nino, MAM-
from 050E-120E/40S, (2), Cyclonic flow from 100W- NDJ
120E/040S, (-2).
1958 (109.8) H-L from 040W-045E/40S, (2), Cont L from 090E- 5 E, 112.3 EL Nino, DJF - JJA
080W/40S-30N also from 60S (4). Cont L from 080W-
180/40S, (-1).
1959 (114.3) H-L from 040W-040E/40S, (2), H-L from 045E-120E/40S, 3 ACTN, 103.6 EL Nino, DJF- FMA
(2), Cont L from 110W-140E (-1).
1960 (100.6) Cont L from 40S-30N also from 060S, (4). 4 AN, 108 Not observed
1961 (121.8) Cont L from 40S to 30N, also from 60S, (4). 4 AN, 108 Not observed

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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78 Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar

1962 (97) Con t L from 40S to 30N, also from 60S, (4). 4 AN, 108 Not observed
1963 (97.9) Cont L from 40S to 30N, also from 60S, (4). 4 AN, 104 EL Nino, MJJ-NDJ
1964 (109.8) Cont L from 40S to 30N, also from 60S, (4). 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, AMJ -
NDJ
1965 (82) Cont L from 40S to 40N, but not from 60S, (1). Cycir bet -1 MD, 86 ELN, AMJ-NDJ
060E-070E over AS from north of equator and Tr cont up to
20N, (-1). Cycir from 100W to 180, (-1).
1966 (86.8) H-L both weak bet 40W-0/40S, (0), Cont L from 110W to -2 MD, 81.6 EL Nino , DJF-
120E along 40S, (-1). Cycir over AS bet 055E-070E from MAM
10N to 20N (-1).
1967 (100.8) AC bet 040W-0/40S, (1), AC –Cycir bet 040E-120E/40S, 3 ACTN, 103.6 Not observed
(2).
1968 (89.7) Only L along 40S, (0). Cycir over AS bet 060E-070E from -1 MD, 86 EL Nino, SON-NDJ
north of equator (-1).
1969 (100.2) AC –Cycir bet 040W-060E/40S, (2), H from 065E-120E, L 2 N, 99.2 EL Nino, DJF-AMJ,
above this high from 082E-110E/30N, (2), Cont L from JAS-NDJ
080W-120E/40S (-2).
1970 (112.9) Cont L from 40S to 30N, also from 060S, (4). 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, JJA-NDJ
1971 (104) Cont L from 40S t0 30N, also from 060S, (4) 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, FY
1972 (81.6) H (weak)-L bet 040W-090E/40S, (1), Cont L bet 090W- 0 MD, 90.4 EL Nino, AMJ-NDJ
160E, (-1).
1973 (107.3) H-L bet 040W-120E, (2) the L continues from 120E to 2 N, 99.2 LA Nina, AMJ-NDJ
120W. No point given for Cont L from 120W.
1974 (88) H from 0-055E, (1), Cont L from 40S-30N but not from 60S 1 D, 94.8 LA Nina, DJF-
(1), Cycir over AS from north of equator up to 10N bet JJA, SON-NDJ)
050E-060E, (-1).
1975 (115.2) Cont L from 40S-30N, also from 60S, (4). 4 AN, 108 LA Nina, FY
1976 (102.5) H from 030W-045E/40S, (1), H from 050E-120E, L north of 3 ACTN, 103.6 LA Nina, DJF-
this H from 060E-095E, (2). MAM, EL Nino,
ASO-NDJ
1977 (104.0) H from 030W-010E, L from 030E-060E/40S, (2), H from 3.5 ACTN, 105.8 EL Nino, ASO-
070E-120E/40S, (1). Cont H from 110W-160W, (0.5) along NDJ
40S.
1978 (109) H-L bet 020W-060E/40S, (2), H from 070E-100E/40S (1). 3 ACTN, 103.8 EL Nino, DJF
1979 (81) AC from 0-045E, and Cycir from 055E-075E, weak, (1), AC 1 D, 94.8 EL Nino, SON-
from 080E-120E (1), Cont L (cyclonic flow) from 080W- NDJ
150W along 40S, (-1).
1980 (103.9) H-L bet 040W-030E/40S, (2). H-L bet 040E-120E/40S, (2). 3 ACTN, 103.6 EL Nino, DJF-JFM
Cont L along 040S from 080W-170W, (-1).
1981 (99.8) AC bet 040W-005W, Cycir north of this AC bet 010E- 3 ACTN, 103.6 Not observed
020W, (2). AC from 005E-040E/40S, Cycir from 050E-
115E/40S, (2). Cont L along 40S from 080W- 155W, (-1).
1982 (85.5) L north of high 030W-080E/40S, (2), H from 090E-120E, 1 D, 94.8 EL Nino, MAM-
(1), Cont L from 080W to 120E, (-2). NDJ
1983 (113) H-L bet 030E-100E/40S at 700 hPa (2), Cont H bet 090W- 3 ACTN, 103.6 EL Nino, DJF- MJJ,
170W/40S at 850 hPa (1). LA Nina from
ASO- NDJ
1984 (95.6) AC bet 040E-070E/40S and Cycir bet 080E-120E/40S, (2). 3 ACTN, 103.6 LA Nina, DJF,
Cont H from 080W to 150W/40S, (1). SON- DJF
1985 (92.9) H from 020W-005E (1), Cont L from 40S-30N, but not 2.5 N, 101.4 LA Nina, DJF-JAS
from 60S (1), Cont H from 080W-120W/40S, (0.5).
1986 (87.2) H from 090E-120E/40S, (1), Cont low from 080W-150W (- -1 MD, 86 EL Nino, ASO-NDJ
1). Cycir over AC from north of equator bet 045E-070E (-1).
1987 (81.6) L from 040W to 060E/40S, (0), H from 065E-120E, (1). 0 MD, 90.4 EL Nino, FY
Marked Tr in easterly over AS from 12N-05N bet 045E-
075E, (-1). The Tr is connected with Cycir bet 040E-
060E/40S-15S from south of equator.

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Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78

1988 (119.3) AC from 020W-020E/40S, (1), AC-Cycir bet 025E - 3 ACTN, 103.6 EL Nino, DJF-JFM,
120E/40S, (2). LA Nina AMJ- NDJ
1989 (100.9) H from 040W to 110E/40S, L north of this H bet 080E- 2 N, 99.2 LA Nina, DJF- AMJ
120E, (2).
1990 (106.2) AC from 030W-020E and Cycir from 035E-110E/40S (2). 2 N, 99.2 Not observed
1991 (90.7) Weak H- L bet 30W-020E, (1), H from 030E-090E, L north 0.5 D, 92.6 EL Nino, AMJ-NDJ
of this high (2). Cycir over South AS bet 050E-070E and
trough continues up to 09N, (-1.0). Cont L from 080W-
160E/40S length 120ᵒ, (-1.5)
1992 (92.3) AC from 040W-010W/40S, (1), AC from 085E-35E/40S, 1.5 BN, 97 EL Nino, DJF-MJJ
(1). Tr in easterly over South AS from 05N-09N (-0.5).
1993 (99.1) H-L bet 040W-045E/40S, (2), H from 050E-090E/40S, (1). 2 N, 99.2 Not observed
Cont L from 100W-180/40S, (-1)
1994 (112.5) H-L bet 010W-090E, (2), H from 090E-120E/35S, (1), Cont 2.5 N, 101.4 EL Nino, from
L from 080W-180 connected with a Col region ASO-NDJ
(-0.5)
1995 (98.1) AC from 030W-040E/40S, Cycir north of this AC, (2), AC 3 ACTN, 103.6 EL Nino , DJF-
from 050E-120E, (1). FMA, LA Nina,
JAS-NDJ
1996 (103.4) Weak H-L bet 040W-010E, (1), H-L bet 020E and 120E, 3.5 ACTN, 105.8 LA Nina ,DJF-FMA
(2), Cont H from 080W-160W connected with a Col region
(0.5)
1997 (102.2) AC from 040W-020E/40S, Cycir north of this AC from 2.0 N , 99.2 EL Nino, AMJ-NDJ
000- 085E- at 700 hPa,(2), AC from 140E-080E (1). Cont L
from 080W-160W (-1) also at 850 hPa.
Legend: H: High, L: Low, Cont: Continuous, bet: between, Cycir: Cyclonic circulation, AC: Anticyclone, Tr: Trough, AS: Arabian Sea,
FY; Full Year , : ‘Excess (E)’: rainfall > 110% of normal, ‘Above Normal (AN)’: 104% (110-98%), ‘Active Normal (AN)’: 101% (107-
95%), ‘Normal (N)’: 97% (103-91%), ‘Below Normal (BN)’: 92% (98-86%), ‘Deficient (D)’ 88% (94-82%) and ‘Markedly Deficient
(MD)’: 84% (90-78%).

Data for a period of 50 years (1948-1997) have been used to
find the correlation coefficient between AIMR and SHZWAI
and the regression equation (straight line) relating them. The
correlation coefficient is 0.74 which is highly significant. The
regression equation relating AIMR and SHZWAI is
AIMR=4.4 x SHZWAI+ 90.4
AIMR is expressed as % of long period average (100%). The
error for the MDP is ±4%. IMD uses 5 ranges of %
departure of AIMR for categorization of monsoon: ‘Excess’
>110% of normal, ‘Above Normal’ (110-105%), ‘Normal’
(104-96%), Below Normal (95-90%) and ‘Deficient’ < 90%.
We have split the normal range into two i.e., ‘Active Normal’
and ‘Normal’ and have used seven categories. As given under
Table 2, the verification results for Model Development
Period are discussed below.
Methodology Development Period
The forecast category of the monsoon together with the
quantitative Forecast of AIMR obtained using the regression
equation during Model Development Period (MDP) is given
in Table 2. Out of the 50 year period, there were only 8 years,
when the difference between the forecast AIMR and the
AIMR was 10% or more. The years were 1953(99.2/109.3),
1959(103.6/114.3), 1961(108.0/121.8), 1962(108.0/97.0),
1963(104.0/97.9), 1979(94.8/81.0), 1988(103.6/119.3) and
1994(101.4/112.5). The first figure in the bracket is computed
AIMR and the second figure is AIMR. There were 8 deficient
monsoons during the MDP: 1951, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1974,
1979, 1982, 1986 and 1987. Except for 3 years, i.e., 1974,
1979, 1982, the computed AIMR was also in deficient
category. There were 9 excess monsoons during the MDP:
1955-56, 1959, 1961, 1970, 1975, 1983, 1988 and 1994. The
computed forecast AIMR was 101.4% in 1994, 103.6% in
1959, 1983 and 1988 and 108.0% in the remaining excess
monsoon year. The computed AIMR was an underestimate
for excess monsoons. It follows from Table 2 that the features
identified in 850 hPa level geo-potential height and vector
wind fields were able to capture the signals relating to the
development of different categories of monsoon during the
MDP.
Methodology Verification Period
Features that developed in 850 hPa geo-potential height and
vector wind anomaly fields during April-May, points given,
SHZWAI, duration of El Nino/La Nina, computed AIMR and
realized AIMR in each during the Methodology Verification
Period (MVP) (1998-2020) are given in Table 3.

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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78 Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar

Table 3. Same as Table 2, but for the Methodology Verification Period (1998-2020)

Year Features in 850 hap geo- potential height/vector wind anomaly SHZWAI Qualitative and Duration of El Nino/
(AIMR as fields during April-May and (points given) quantitative( as % La Nina conditions
% of LPA) of LPA) Forecast during the year
of AMIR
1998 (104) Weak AC-Cycir bet 040W-015E/40S, (1), AC from 020E-080E, 2.5 N, 101.4 El Nino, DJF-AMJ,
Cycir north of this AC from 080E-110E, (2). Cycir from 080W- La Nina, JJA-NDJ
135W (-0.5).
1999 H-L bet 020W-065E/40S, (2), H from 070E-120E, L north of 3 ACTN, 103.6 La Nina, FY
(95.6) this H, (2). Cycir from 15N-18N bet 055E-070E over ArS (-1).
2000 Cont H from 10W to 120E, ridge-Tr-ridge/40S (1), Cont H from 2 N, 99.2 La Nina , FY
(92.2) 080W to 170E, (1).
2001 AC from 040W-015W, Cycir from 010E-010W (weak)/40S, (1), 2 N, 99.2 La Nina, DJF-JFM
(92.2) Cycir from 080E-120E, (0), Cont high from 080W to 170W (1).
2002 Only L along 40S, (0), Cont L for Jun-Sep bet 080W-095E. 0 MD, 90.4 El Nino, MJJ-NDJ
(81.8)
2003 H-L from 010E-120E/40S, (2), Cont H from 080W-150W and H 3.5 ACTN, 105.8 El Nino, DJF-JFM
(102.3) continues up to 120E with a Col region (1.5).
2004 H from 040W- 35E, (1), weak L bet 090E-120E, Cont H from 1.5 BN, El Nino, JJA-NDJ
(86.2) 120W-180 (0.5). 97.0
2005 H-L (weak) bet 035W-030E/40S, (1.0), H (weak)-L bet 035E- 2 N, 99.2 El Nino, DJF-JFM, La
(98.7) 110E (1.0). Nina, OND-NDJ
2006 H from 035W-020E/40S, L north of this H, (2.0), H from 3 ACTN, 103.6 La Nina, DJF-FMA,
(99.6) 060E-120E (1.0). El Nino, ASO-NDJ
2007 H bet 060E-100E at 700hPa (1.0). Cont H from 080W to 150E 2.5 N, 101.4 El Nino, DJF, La
(105.7) connected with a Col region (1.5) at 700 hPa. Nina MJJ-NDJ
2008 Cont L from 040S-030N/140E-180 at 700 hPa also from 60S (4), 2.5 N, 101.4 La Nina, DJF- MJJ,
(98.3) Continuous low at 850 hPa from 090W-160E connected with a OND-NDJ
Col region (-1.5).
2009 H from 090E-120E, (1). Cont L from 90W-160E, connected 0 MD, 90.4 La Nina, DJF-FMA,
(78.2) with a Col region (-1). El Nino, JJA-NDJ
2010 (102) H –L (weak) from 040W-055E/40S (1), H from 060E-110E (1), 3 ACTN, 103.6 El Nino, DJF-FMA,
Cont H from 080W-180 (1). La Nina, MJJ-NDJ
2011 H-L from 035W- 030E/40S (2), H from 080E-120E (1), Cont H 4 AN, 108.0 La Nina, DJF- AMJ,
(101.6) from 080W to 180 (1). JJA-NDJ
2012 H from 010E-020W/40S, (1), H from 050E-120E, (1), Cont AC 2 N, 99.2 La Nina, DJF-FMA
(92.9) from 130W-160W (0).
2013 H (weak)-L bet 005E-065E/40S, (1), High from 075E-105E, (1), 3 ACTN, 103.6 Not observed
(105.7) AC from 080W-150W along 40S, (1).
2014 (88) Cycir bet 040W-010E, 025E-080E, 090E-120E, (0), Cont H 0 MD, 90.4 El Nino, OND-NDJ
from 080W- 180 along 40S, (1). Tr over AS from 08N bet 060E-
070E and Tr continues up to 20N, (-1).
2015 H from 040W-030E, (1), H from 060E-120E, (1), Cont low from 0 MD, 90.4 El Nino, FY
(86.0) 080W-145E, (-2).
2016 (97) AC-Cycir from 035W-065E/40S, (2.0), AC (weak)-Cycir, 075E- 2 N, 99.2 El Nino, DJF- MAM,
120E (1), Cont low from 080W-150W (-1) . La Nina, JAS- NDJ
2017 (95) Cycir bet 040$-020E, (0), AC from 080E-120E/40S, (1), Cont H 2 N, 99.2 LAN, SON- NDJ
from 090W-180, (1).
2018 (91) H (Weak)-L from 040W-030E, (1.0), Cont H from 100W-150W, 1.5 BN, 97.0 La Nina, DJF-MAM,
(0.5). Marked Cycir along Kerala coast, no point given. El Nino, SON-NDJ
2019 (110) Cycir from 015W-040W (1), AC from 050E-010E and Cycir 4 AN, 108.0 El Nino, DJF- MJJ
060E-090E (2), AC from 120E-095E (1)
2020 (109) Cycir flow bet 0-040W (-1), AC flow from 0-025E and Cycir 3 ACTN, 103.6 La Nina, JAS-NDJ
from 030E-065E, (2), AC from 070E-095E and Cycir from
115E-140E (2)
Legend: Same as given in Table 2.

76
Vinod Kumar and M. Satya Kumar
The Forecast AIMR obtained using the regression equation
together with the category of the monsoon during MVP is
given in Table 3. There were only 2 year, i.e., 2004 and 2009,
out of 23 years of MVP, the difference between the forecast
and the realized AIMR were more than 10%. There were 5
deficient monsoons during the MVP: 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014
and 2015. Except for 2004, the computed AIMR was also in
deficient category in the remaining 4 years. There was no
excess monsoon during the MVP. AIMR was more than
100% in 8 years: 1998, 2002, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2019
and 2020 (Table 3). The computed rainfall was more than
100% in 5 out of these 8 years. It follows from Table 3 that
the features identified in 850 hPa level geo-potential height
and vector wind fields could, in general, capture the signals
relating to the development of different categories of
monsoon, as was the case during the MDP.
CONCLUSIONS
(i) A proper combination of high and low (positive and
negative geo-potential height anomaly at 850 hPa level) along
40ᵒS between 040ᵒE and 120ᵒE is associated with normal
monsoon rainfall over India. High and low must have
horizontal length and latitudinal width, respectively, of at
least 25ᵒlong. and 5ᵒ lat. respectively and they must not
remain separated by more than 20ᵒ long. on horizontal scale.
(ii) In anomaly of 850 geo-potential height, continuous
negative anomaly, if seen from 40ᵒS to 30ᵒN covering India
from 090ᵒE to further east, anomaly has to be examined from
60ᵒS. If the continuous anomaly is again observed from 40ᵒS,
4 points should be assigned to this feature. However, if
continuous negative anomaly is not observed from 40ᵒS to
30ᵒN, after examining it from 60ᵒS, only 1 point should be
assigned to this feature. Such a synoptic situation was present
during 12 years.
(iii) A region of negative anomalies could be observed north
of the region of positive anomalies along 40ᵒS between
040ᵒE-120ᵒE. 2 points should be assigned to this feature. This
type of synoptic situation had been observed during 8 years.
(iv) Composite Anomaly of 850 hPa vector wind for Apr-May
have shown that Cyclonic circulation/Trough over Arabian
Sea affects monsoon rainfall over India during the season.
Out of 15 deficient monsoon years, Cyclonic
circulation/Trough had been observed over Arabian Sea
during Apr-May vector wind anomaly in 8 years and during
June-September in 11 years. Because of the presence of
cyclonic circulation/trough over Arabian Sea, the chance of
development of Cyclone increases over Arabian Sea and its
movement in northwest direction adversely affects moisture
feed to Indian monsoon region. Presence of cyclonic
circulation/trough over Arabian Sea also restricts the Cross
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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(3) (2021), 66-78
Equatorial Flow to northern latitudes over Arabian Sea and
thereby affects monsoon rainfall.
(v) During methodology verification period, deficient rainfall
had been forecast in 4 years (2002, 2009, 2014 and 2015) out
of 5 years. In the fifth deficit monsoon year, i.e., in 2004, the
forecast was for below normal rainfall. Thus, the forecast for
deficient monsoons could be considered as reasonably good.
(vi) Out of 24 El-Nino years, continuous low has been
observed over East Pacific in 21 (87.5%) years. Out of 25 La
Nina years continuous high had been observed in 15 (60%)
years during April-May and June-September. So, the impact
of El Nino/ La Nina on Indian summer monsoon appears to
have been indirectly taken care through the developments in
the zonal westerlies in the methodology reported in the paper.
(vii) The steps reported here provide yet another independent
methodology for preparing long range forecasting of All India
Monsoon Rainfall.
ACKNOWLEDEGEMENT
Authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department for
the use of seasonal rainfall data from 1948-2020 from their
website, Google Wikipedia and NOAA Earth System
Laboratory (U.S.A.) for using their website for the
preparation of anomalies of geo-potential height/vector wind
at 850 hPa/700 hPa for the period 1948-2020. Authors express
their sincere gratitude to the reviewer Dr Onkari Prasad for
his excellent guidance in improving the quality of the article
in all respect. Thanks are due to Dr. P. R. Reddy, Former
Emeritus Scientist, CSIR-NGRI, Hyderabad for suggestions.
Authors thank Dr. Om Prakash Pandey, Chief Editor, for his
proper guidance and suggestions.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest and
adhere to copyright norms.
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