2021 年钢价走势分析

Affected by the colder weather, the market has gradually entered the off-season in demand. The severe situation
of the superimposed new crown epidemic has risen again, and various prevention and control measures have
been strengthened. In the later stage, the demand for steel in the market is on a downward trend.

(1) The national economy will continue to recover steadily in 2021, and steel demand will remain stable In 2021,
the situation of the new crown epidemic is still severe, the uncertainty of the international environment still
exists, and the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not yet solid. The World Bank predicted in the
latest Global Economic Outlook released in January that the global economy will grow by 4.0% in 2021, a
decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the value predicted in July last year. From the perspective of the
domestic situation, this is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". The country will further improve its
macroeconomic policies, continue to consolidate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the recovery of
economic stability, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Continue to do
a good job in the "six stability" work, fully implement the "six guarantees" task, and strive to maintain economic
operations in a reasonable area. In 2021, the state will focus on the construction of key areas, focus on the "two
new and one heavy" and make up for shortcomings, expand effective investment; accelerate the construction of
5G industrial Internet, big data centers, etc., implement urban renewal, promote the transformation of old urban
communities, and operate the manufacturing industry The environment will also be further improved, and steel
demand is expected to remain stable.

受天气转冷影响，市场逐步进入需求淡季。叠加新冠疫情严峻形势又有所升高，各项防控措施加强，后期
市场钢材需求强度是下降趋势，钢价难以保持高位，将呈回落走势。

(一)2021 年国民经济持续稳定恢复，钢材需求保持平稳

2021 年，新冠疫情形势仍然严峻，国际环境的不确定性仍然存在，国内经济恢复的基础也尚不牢固。世
界银行在 1 月最新发布的《全球经济展望》中预测，2021 年全球经济将增长 4.0%，增速较去年 7 月份预
测值下调了 0.2 个百分点。从国内形势看，今是“十四五”规划的第一年，国家将进一步完善宏观经济政
策，不断巩固疫情防控和经济稳定恢复发展态势，继续实施积极的财政政策、稳健的货币政策，继续做好
“六稳”工作、全面落实“六保”任务，努力保持经济运行在合理区。2021 年，国家将突出重点领域建
设，聚焦“两新一重”和补短板弱项，扩大有效投资;加快 5G 工业互联网、大数据中心等建设，实施城市
更新推进城镇老旧小区改造，制造业运行环境也将进一步改善，钢材需求有望保持平稳。

(2) The release of steel production capacity remains at a high level, and the market balance of supply and
demand is under pressure According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November
2020, investment in the black smelting, rolling and processing industry increased by 25.4% year-on-year, far
exceeding the national fixed asset investment growth of 2.6%, and is facing the possibility of capacity expansion.
If the newly-built capacity is released in a concentrated manner, it will adversely affect the balance of market
supply and demand. According to statistics from the Iron and Steel Association, in early January this year,
member steel companies produced an average of 2.195 million tons of crude steel per day. It is estimated that
the country’s daily output of crude steel was 2.9254 million tons. The overall crude steel production remains at a
relatively high level.

(二)钢铁产能释放保持高水平，市场供需平衡面临压力

据国家统计局数据，2020 年 1-11 月份，黑色冶炼压延及加工业投资同比增长 25.4%，远超全国固定资产投

资 2.6%的增幅，面临产能扩张的可能。新建产能若集中释放，将对市场供需平衡造成不利影响。据钢铁
协会统计，今年 1 月上旬，会员钢铁企业平均日产粗钢 219.56 万吨，估算全国粗钢日产为 292.54 万吨，
总体仍保持较高水平，后期市场供需平衡面临压力。

(3) The social stocks of steel rebounded slightly, and the stocks of enterprises continued to increase Since the
beginning of this year, steel stocks have increased, not only due to weakening demand and winter storage by
enterprises, but also related to new epidemic control measures. From the perspective of social inventory,
according to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, in early January, the social inventory of five major
types of steel in 20 cities was 7.71 million tons, an increase of 410,000 tons or 5.6% over the previous ten days;
from the perspective of corporate inventory, in early January , According to the key statistics, the steel inventory
of steel enterprises was 13.03 million tons, an increase of 1.41 million tons over the previous ten days, an
increase of 12.1%. The rebound of steel stocks put pressure on the later steel price trend. (三)钢材社会库存小幅
回升，企业库存持续增加

今年以来，钢材库存有所上升，既有需求减弱、企业冬储的原因，也与新的疫情管控措施有关。从社会库
存情况看，据钢铁协会统计，1 月上旬，20 个城市 5 大品种钢材社会库存 771 万吨，比上一旬增加 41 万
吨，上升 5.6%;从企业库存情况看，1 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1303 万吨，比上一旬增加
141 万吨，增幅为 12.1%。钢材库存回升使后期钢材价格走势承压。

The main issues that need to be paid attention to in the later market:

First, the demand is showing a weakening trend, and the balance of supply and demand is facing challenges. As
the weather turns colder and steel prices rise, steel demand has weakened. Iron and steel enterprises should pay
close attention to market changes, rationally arrange production, adjust product structure as needed, improve
product grade and quality, and maintain market supply and demand balance.

后期市场需要关注的主要问题：

一是需求呈现减弱趋势，供需平衡面临考验。随着天气转冷和钢材价格的上涨，钢材需求有所减弱。钢铁
企业应密切关注市场变化，合理安排生产，按需调整产品结构，提高产品等级和质量，维护市场供需平衡。

Second, the high and fluctuating prices of imported mines have put tremendous pressure on corporate
profitability. According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Association, as of January 15, 2021, the price of
CIOPI imported iron ore (62%) was US$169.34/ton, an increase of 6.41% from the end of the previous month,
while the price of steel fell by 0.76% during the same period, which had a significant impact on corporate
profitability. huge pressure.
二是进口矿价格高位波动，对企业盈利水平造成极大压力。据钢铁协会监测，截止 2021 年 1 月 15 日，
CIOPI 进口铁矿石(62%)价格为 169.34 美元/吨，比上月末上涨 6.41%，而同期钢价下降 0.76%，对企业盈利
水平造成极大压力。

Third, the international situation is still complex and severe, and the difficulty of steel export will further increase.
As the overseas epidemic has not been suppressed, the supply chain in the United States and Europe is still
blocked, which has a greater impact on economic recovery. Under the background that the pace of new crown
vaccination is lower than expected, the recovery of the global supply chain may be further delayed, and the
difficulty of my country's steel export will further increase.

三是国际形势仍复杂严峻，钢材出口难度将进一步增大。由于海外疫情还没有得到抑制，美欧供应链仍然
受阻，对经济恢复产生较大影响。在新冠疫苗接种节奏低于预期的背景下，全球供应链恢复可能进一步后
延，我国钢材出口难度将进一步增大。