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Next Generation Transmission Expansion Planning Framework: Models, Tools, and Educational Opportunities
Next Generation Transmission Expansion Planning Framework: Models, Tools, and Educational Opportunities
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5 authors, including:
Y. Chakhchoukh V. Vittal
Arizona State University Arizona State University
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The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section is crucial in the TEP process because it serves as a basis for the
II presents the contemporary TEP process framework from an entire planning framework. After the base case is developed,
economic perspective. Section III describes the mathematical different scenarios are derived in the next stage based on
models and the principles that support the TEP process. A stakeholders’ inputs with the parameters in the base case ad-
discussion on the available software tools and practical skills justed to different values. Typical alternative scenarios include
necessary for the transmission planning engineer is presented in combination of variations in loads, energy costs, as well as the
Section IV. Section V describes the experience in the incor- generation mix. The candidate lines together with the scenarios
poration of some of the discussed topics, in a transmission serve as inputs to the next stage of network optimization. The
operation and planning course. Section VI is a guide for cur- network optimization is the core of the entire TEP framework.
riculum implementation of the skills and topics presented. Traditionally, due to the lack of efficient algorithms, this
Finally, concluding remarks are presented in Section VII. step was usually conducted using a trial and error approach.
That is, the value of the expansion projects were evaluated by
II. NEXT GENERATION TEP FRAMEWORK running production cost models with different sets of new lines.
However, this approach is by nature a heuristic approach and is
The goal of the contemporary TEP exercise is to improve the
only feasible when the candidate line pool is small. As the
overall market efficiency and simultaneously enhance system
number of candidate lines increases, the computational burden
reliability. In order to balance the economics and the reliability,
can easily become intractable. With the development of ad-
it is crucial to identify the correct set of transmission lines to be
vanced optimization algorithms, the trend of the next genera-
added. Beyond the traditional power flow and contingency
tion TEP exercise will include production cost analysis based
analysis, the TEP process is under transition to a comprehen-
on a mixed-integer programming formulation, which simulta-
sive decision-making process in which the value of the trans-
neously optimizes the network expansions and economic dis-
mission projects needs to be accurately evaluated based on
patch. After the network is optimized for each of the scenarios,
resource forecasts.
transmission lines that appear in most scenarios are viewed as
The traditional TEP approach focused on protecting the
projects with high value and added to the base case.
system from the “worst case” scenario. In other words, the
In the final stage, the adequacy and security (static and dy-
transmission network is designed to protect against the worst
namic stability) of the expanded system should be evaluated
contingency at the peak load level. This approach was based on
using complete static and dynamic system models with the
the assumption that if a system survived the worst contingency,
expectation to identify possible sub-regional reinforcement.
the system would be robust enough to survive any other con-
tingency. While this assumption might be valid in some cases, Candidate
the worst case-based TEP approach is not suited for contem- lines
Stakeholders’
porary power systems. The reasons are twofold: First, some input
critical contingencies are very unlikely to occur; protecting
against these contingencies by building more transmission lines Network Plan
is not economical. Instead, remedial action schemes (RASs) are Base case Scenarios Optimization verification
usually designed to mitigate the impact of these contingencies analysis
by sequentially opening a set of lines or even tripping genera-
Resources
tion or loads. Second, the massive installation of renewable forecast
Final Plan
resources and the deepening of deregulated electricity markets
have brought increasing uncertainties to the power grid. These
factors make the “worst case” difficult to identify because it Base case Scenario Network
optimization
Plan
Verification
development analysis
may not always occur at peak load level. In addition, the system
operating costs are also subject to randomness. Prices of dif- Fig. 1 Next generation transmission expansion planning process
ferent resources such as gas and coal are unclear in the future.
Inflation and possible delays in completion can affect the III. MATHEMATICAL MODELS
estimated benefits as well. All these factors make an exact
transmission expansion planning process, without considering The TEP practice generally consists of two stages: grid op-
uncertainties, unrealistic. Thus, considering uncertainties in timization and reliability validation. In grid optimization, the
deciding transmission expansion investments is critical. TEP model can be viewed as an extension of the optimal power
With the above factors considered, the proposed framework flow (OPF) problem. The TEP and OPF problems share a
for next generation TEP is shown in Fig. 1. The framework can common basis in the sense that they are both constrained op-
be categorized into four stages as described in the dotted boxes. timization problems. The main difference, however, is that the
In order to develop a planning base case in the first stage, one TEP problem optimizes the network topology based on the
can consider the operational case of the current year, adjust the economic dispatch. In the grid optimization stage, binary var-
load level according to the forecast of the load growth, remove iables are used to determine the status of potential transmission
the generators to be retired and add the generators to be in- lines and make the TEP formulation “mixed-integer” in nature.
stalled in the targeted planning year. Federal policy require- In order to obtain an efficient solution, the linearized power
ments, e.g., RPS, and stakeholders’ inputs are also taken into flow model (i.e., the direct current (DC) model) and its varia-
consideration at this stage. Thus, a reference planning base case tions are extensively used in the TEP grid optimization model.
is created to represent the “standard” future. For impartial transmission planning organizations such as
Due to the potential load increase, it is normal to observe independent system operators (ISOs), the commonly used
some overloads in this reference case and identify where objective function is to jointly minimize the investment cost
transmission expansion is needed. The base case development and the operating cost over a time horizon. A high-level TEP
model usually has the following form,
3
The DSATools package [10] consists of four modules for of the programs with real-world case data, developing addi-
power flow (PF), transient stability (TS), small signal stability tional skills such as data management, and an in depth under-
(SS) and static voltage stability (VS) analysis respectively. standing of the complexities associated with large power sys-
PSS/E [11] and PSLF [12] are two of the most widely used tems. Some of these complexities are highlighted next in the
tools in Eastern and Western North America respectively. With case example.
add-ons, PSS/E is able to perform all the studies listed in Table Both modeling languages and general high-level languages
I. PowerWorld [13] is an emerging software package. It was can be used to formulate the TEP problem. Modeling languages
widely adopted in the classroom for educational purpose thanks such as AMPL [24], GAMS [25] and AIMMS [26] are tools
to its powerful visualization functions. Now, with more func- designed to formulate large and complex optimization models
tions added, PowerWorld has been widely acknowledged in the conveniently. Through these languages, users can “describe”
power industry. Neplan [14], from Switzerland, with a very the optimization problem by specifying the objective function
user-friendly graphical interface and integration with C/C++ and constraints; the language will then “translate” the problem
and MATLAB is popular in Europe and Latin America and is into a matrix form and pass it to solvers. However, most of
suitable for academic purposes. A complete version of this these languages are not free. If budget is a concern, languages
package is offered to universities at a reduced price. However, such as C/C++, JAVA, Python and MATLAB can also be used
if budget is a concern, power system analysis toolbox (PSAT) to formulate the problem. The advantage of using these lan-
[15] and MatPower [16] are two free MATLAB-based open guages is that they are easy to access; however, users are re-
source tools. PSAT offers a wide range of functionalities in- sponsible for formulating the problem in a matrix form, which
cluding static power flow and stability analysis with a us- could be challenging for large problems.
er-friendly interface. MatPower is a powerful tool for solving Depending on the nature of the problem, different solvers
power flow and OPF problems. These two tools also provide can be used. The commonly used commercial solvers include
excellent flexibility to utilize other open source software to CPLEX [17], Gurobi [18], XPRESS [27] and Knitro (nonlinear
solve many user-defined problems. solver) [28], all of them offer free academic licenses. Apart
The second type of tools performs planning studies. Their from the commercial solvers, free solvers such as CBC [29],
functionality includes security-constrained economic dispatch SCIP [30], and IPOPT [31] are also available. NEOS server
(SCED), security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), [32] offers a free Internet-based service for solving optimiza-
transmission expansion planning (TEP) as well as generation tion problems, on which the solvers available represent the
expansion planning (GEP). Table II provides a list of planning state-of-the-art in optimization software.
tools that are commonly used in the industry. GridView [19], When considering uncertainties and forecasting, program-
PROMOD [20] and UPLAN [21] are used for production cost ming the specific statistical methods in practical software is
analysis up to 8760-hour a year. For SCED analysis, UPLAN very important to derive industrial prototypes and products.
supports both the direct current (DC) and the alternating current Sophisticated software tools popular among statisticians such
(AC) power flow model. PLEXOS [22] uses mixed-integer as R (CRAN) [33] should be used by students. The R software
based models to perform transmission and generation expan- has the advantage of being compatible with MATLAB. A large
sion planning studies. PSR Net-Plan [23] is an integrated spectrum of statistical methods are already programmed in R
computational environment for transmissions analysis and and available online free of charge. Packages related to time
expansion studies. Its module OptNet is specifically designed series analysis and forecasting, regression analysis and proba-
for TEP analysis. These software packages are widely used in bility distribution estimation are readily available and updated
today’s power industry in the U.S. and offer similar function- on a current basis. The available programs can be accessed,
alities. Exposure to these tools will help prepare the students to manipulated and advanced. The MATLAB statistics and signal
readily work for power utilities as a transmission planning processing toolboxes are also very useful.
engineer. Most of these software packages offer academic
licenses at no cost or at a significantly lower cost. University Security Assessment of a Bulk Power System: A Case Study
educators should take advantage of this option. Notice that This case study aims to exemplify some challenges in the
although academic licenses are usually good for class demon- security assessment for contemporary bulk power systems and
stration purpose, they may have limited functionality and to highlight fundamental principles and practical skills that are
problem size restrictions. necessary for analyzing real-world problems. The base case is
developed based on a real world planning case with approxi-
TABLE II AVAILABLE SOFTWARE TOOLS FOR PLANNING STUDIES mately 20,000 buses, more than 4,000 generators and a load
level that varies from 120,270 MVA in a lightly loaded scenario
Tool Name SCED SCUC TEP GEP
to 176,410 MVA in a heavily loaded scenario. The renewables
GridView √(DC1) √
penetration is approximately 6% of the total on-line generation
PROMOD √(DC) √
in the heavily loaded scenario and 15% in the lightly loaded
UPLAN √(DC/AC2) √
scenario. In order to focus on the security of the bulk trans-
PSR Net-Plan √(DC) √
mission system, only the buses at 115 kV and above are con-
PLEXOS √(DC) √ √ √ sidered in this study. Before running the simulations, the base
1
The DC power flow model is used in economic dispatch case is carefully tuned to ensure that the voltage magnitudes of
2
The DC or the AC power flow model is used in economic dispatch
all studied buses and branch power flows are within their steady
Experience in an educational environment shows that it is state limits. The tuning procedure also needs to make sure that
highly desirable to have a dedicated power engineering com- the swing bus of each area is operating within its capacity limit.
puting laboratory, where students are able to run the power In this study, both static and dynamic security analyses are
systems studies described in Tables I and II. Moreover, gradu- performed to assess the reliability of the base case. For static
ate students are expected to be able to run commercial versions security analysis, the steady state analysis tools in PSLF
5
(SSTOOLS) [12] and the voltage security assessment tool In bulk power systems, the number of contingencies for
(VSAT) in DSATools [10] are used. Both tools run power flow transient stability analysis should be limited to a practical
calculations for pre-contingency and N – 1 contingency condi- number because even with the batch processing tools like
tions, detecting voltage and flow violations determined by DYTOOLS from PSLF, the time and resources needed to run a
nominal values and in accordance with NERC reliability large amount of contingencies is still prohibitive. Two criteria
standards [6]. The VSAT also has the ability to estimate static that provide credible information of potential weaknesses in the
voltage stability limits. Both tools can generate results in Mi- system are the SCCs identified in the static security assessment
crosoft Excel sheets, including all violations identified in and those contingencies that historically have set the capacity
pre-contingency and post-contingency conditions for analysis. limits of certain path ratings in terms of stability issues [35].
For a real world planning base case with this size, it is ex-
pected that many unsolved contingency cases will be observed V. EXPERIENCE WITH CLASSROOM OFFERINGS
in the results. Most of the non-converging cases can be solved
Some of the concepts and the use of the software cited were
manually by ‘tuning’ the power flow solution parameters (i.e.,
incorporated into a first semester graduate course on transmis-
minor changes in load details and system parameters). Many
sion operation and planning. Prior to 2008, this course had
other convergence problems are due to islanding (e.g., an
enrollments typically in the range of thirty students, but the
isolated generator at the end of a transmission line). The latter is
advent of renewable resources and renewed interest in power
better detected with VSAT, which clearly identifies the is-
systems engineering seem to have reenergized the field, and
landing problem. In any case, rechecking the obtained
enrollments in the course have risen to over 100 students. At
SSTOOLS results with VSAT and vice versa has been found to
Arizona State University, this course typically has about 75%
be useful on identifying the true violations and critical points in
Masters level students, and 25% Doctoral level; and the stu-
the system. With the above guidelines, 23 static critical con-
dents are typically about 25% U.S. students, and 75% non-U.S.
tingencies (SCCs) were identified in the heavily loaded sce-
The students’ backgrounds vary significantly. The strengths of
nario and 19 SCCs were identified in the lightly loaded scenario
the students seem to lie in the computer applications area. That
of the given base case.
is, the students are either conversant with PSLF, Power World,
Additionally, the dynamic security assessment includes
and similar packages, or they are able to develop reasonably
small signal stability analysis and transient stability analysis. In
high sophistication in the use of these tools very quickly.
this case study the small signal stability analysis tool (SSAT)
Additionally, the experience from the exercise is that the stu-
and the transient stability analysis tool (TSAT) from DSATools
dents are anxious to apply concepts of solar and wind genera-
are used respectively for these analyses, in conjunction with the
tion additions to test bed systems. Test beds that have been
dynamic simulation capabilities of PSLF to double check
used and reported here are from the WECC and these test beds
results.
are of various sizes depending on the detail covered, the voltage
Since there are numerous dynamic modes in the study case,
level of the transmission system, and the geographical cover-
it is not a trivial task to identify and trace the dominant in-
age. The weaknesses of the students are more difficult to
ter-area and local modes in the system over different load
identify, but these weaknesses may include basic calculations
scenarios. From a regional perspective, in this case, only eleven
of three phase AC circuits (e.g., per unit), and the ability to
modes were identified as providing important information
recognize spurious answers in their calculations. Also, the
about the small signal stability of the entire interconnected
students have had trouble expressing the results of complex
system. Eight of them are inter-area modes and three of them
studies in a comprehensible manner.
are local modes associated with converter control based gen-
A typical assignment that might be presented to beginning
erators (CCBG) representing wind and solar photovoltaic
students utilizes a thirteen-bus equivalent of a 500 and 250 kV
generators. The eleven identified modes are shown in Table III.
system. The system given has a specified load profile, and
Letter ‘I’ denotes inter-area mode and letter ‘L’ local mode.
generation levels are specified at four generators. Then the
Some important characteristics of the new modes associated
students would perform N – 1 security analysis on the given
with CCBG are only observed in bulk systems, as described in
system and report their results. Subsequently, the students
detail in [34].
would examine 5%, 10%, …, 25% load increases, and they
TABLE III MAIN IDENTIFIED MODES would add photovoltaic or wind generation at assigned buses.
The resulting system is no longer N – 1 secure. They are then
Heavy Loaded Scenario Light Loaded Scenario
asked to recommend transmission expansion. Tabular data are
Mode Inter-area Inter-area
f (Hz) ζ (%) f (Hz) ζ (%) provided to the students for transmission costs and corre-
Index Index
sponding capabilities of new circuits.
1-I 0.254 19.46 -- 0.305 19.72 343 / 2044
The results of an assignment as described are mixed: some
2-I 0.372 10.9 922 / 2944 0.471 12.16 527 / 2044
students simply try a few line additions and they seem insensi-
3-I 0.877 11.22 110 / 2944 tive to the cost of the expansion. Others discover that the
4-I 0.541 9.43 767 / 2944 0.622 5.92 65 / 2044 software tools have sensitivity analysis capabilities, and these
5-I 0.669 13.39 237 / 2044 students often are able to obtain “better” (more economical)
6-I 0.838 9.37 152 / 2044 solutions. One issue that comes up in classroom discussion of
7-I 0.39 12.36 225 / 2944 these assignments relates to system stability: the students have
8-I 0.627 10.63 409 / 2944 a difficult time in relating the stability of the dynamic system to
9-L 0.36 10.5 -- simple cases of over-current and undervoltage. However, the
10-L 0.588 6.85 -- classroom discussion of the meaning of power system stability
11-L 0.607 28.28 -- seems to help comprehension. An additional area that creates
Inter-area Index: m generators with speeds with real part of the mode's right classroom discussion is the solution for undervoltages in the
eigenvector larger than 0.2 / n total generators
6
system. Such a discussion includes the IEEE operating voltage student response, the course instructor notes that many students
limits; the use of static capacitors in the transmission system; list this project in their curriculum vitae.
and the setting of generator terminal voltages. For example, in There are several books [37]-[39] and online resources [40]
many locations in the Western United States, 500 kV circuits available to be used as reading materials in this course. Among
are operated at a high voltage range, e.g., 525 - 540 kV, the them, [37]-[38] provide references for TEP models and algo-
reasons are discussed in some detail in class. The grading of the rithms from both research and engineering point of view.
indicated assignment was based on: Reference [39] is a relatively new report that includes the
Check for N – 1 compliance and introduction (15%) integration of renewable resources in the TEP process. Refer-
Calculation of the capacity to accept added solar generation ence [40] is website for a graduate course taught at Iowa State
(15%) University and contains a consolidated set of notes on the topic.
Security assessment (10%) Nevertheless, a comprehensive textbook that is suitable for a
Comparison of results with published levels of solar energy TEP course is still missing, which causes the resources used in
expected in this region (10%) the course tend to be disbursed and sometimes even contra-
Explanation of transmission expansion procedures in place dictory.
today (15%) It appears that many academic sectors favor environmen-
Technical writing and report format (20%) tally appropriate solutions, but some of these sectors have
Clarity of explanations (10%) general educational approaches (e.g., discussion and verbal
analysis that focus on problems) rather than a specific, engi-
Supporting documentation (5%). neering-sound solution approach. A course in TEP is exactly
The grading criteria are given to the students in advance. The that: a sound engineering approach that includes the best
resulting grades are shown in Fig. 3 (with a mean of about 72, knowledge from science (and finance) to solve complex prob-
and standard deviation of 23). lems in electric power transmission expansion.
fied academic backgrounds, it is advisable to take the three-step problems would certainly provide a good opportunity for
approach as described in Fig. 5. In the junior undergraduate strengthening fundamentals and creative solutions.
level, fundamental mathematics such as calculus and statistics This comprehensive curriculum development approach,
should be taught. Basic circuit analysis and signal processing with a wide variety of topics included, may only be achievable
can also be taught at this level after the students have the cor- through the cooperation of the electrical engineering depart-
responding mathematical knowledge. Computer programming ment with the mathematics and statistics department. In some
is another important topic that should be taught and used earlier cases, it may be advisable for the students to take special
at this stage. At the senior undergraduate level, curricula should courses outside their universities and offered by leading insti-
be designed to include the topics of power flow studies, faults, tutions in the field. In addition, due to budget constraints, it is
protection as well as basic stability studies. Meanwhile, it is possible not to have all the commercial software presented in
also suggested to introduce basic optimization theory [42]-[43] Section IV in a single power system laboratory. However, as
engineering economics [44] and probability theory [45] to mentioned in the same section, some of the tools are more
students at this level. Thus, if a student does not want to pursue education oriented and complete versions can be obtained by
an advanced degree after the college education, the essential academic institutions for educational and research purposes at
background to work as a power systems planning engineer is reduced prices.
still provided. The graduate curriculum should be an extension
of what students have learned in their undergraduate work. VII. CONCLUSIONS
More theoretical courses such as stability, optimization, linear
This paper presents the regional transmission expansion
and nonlinear systems analysis, as well as advanced probability
planning process from an educational perspective, identifying
theories should be taught depending on the specialty of the
competencies and skills needed for present and future trans-
faculties to ensure students not only know how to use the tools,
mission planners. A broad review of the topics, models and
but also have an in depth understanding of the theoretical basis
software tools used in contemporary transmission expansion
behind. In that sense, the students should have the ability to
projects is introduced, based on teaching and real world re-
design a new tool or tailor existing tools according to the re-
search experiences.
quirement of the studies conducted.
A guide to curriculum development in response to the iden-
tified competencies and inter-disciplinary skills for qualified
transmission planners is proposed at undergraduate and gradu-
ate levels. Experiences with classroom offerings at the Power
Engineering Program at Arizona State University are presented.
Additionally, the applicability of the proposal by small power
engineering programs is considered.
As discussed in this paper, transmission planners should not
only have solid power systems knowledge and the ability to use
popular software tools, but also have an inter-disciplinary
background that covers extensively in linear and non-linear
systems theory, optimization, advanced statistics as well as
computer programming. Furthermore, the TEP teaching and
research experience presented in the paper has exposed the
need for the incorporation of real world type problems in the
Fig. 5. TEP curriculum development curriculum of the contemporary transmission planning engi-
neer.
Tools and notions such as: random variables, probability
distribution and density functions, moments, cumulants are
necessary to conduct a stochastic or probabilistic power flow. VIII. REFERENCES
Knowledge of statistical and probability concepts is very useful
[1] Western Electricity Coordinating Council, “WECC 10-year regional
to understand the basis of and mathematically model random- transmission plan summary,” Sept. 2011. [Online]. Available:
ness. Statistical analysis and inference are important for prac- http://www.wecc.biz/library/StudyReport/Documents/Plan_Summary.pd
tical planners [46]. In fact, the inference in statistics is based on f
a given assumed model and a set of past observations. Fore- [2] H. Holttinen et al., “Currents of change,” IEEE Power and Energy
casting needs the understanding of stochastic processes theory Magazine, vol. 9, no. 6, pp. 47-59, Nov.-Dec. 2011.
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[48] using past power consumption, weather behavior and 1426-1434, Aug. 2009.
recorded variables such as temperature, wind speed and re- [4] S. Torre, A. Conejo, and J. Contreras, “Transmission expansion planning
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238-248, Feb. 2008.
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and the difficulties of dealing with large amount of data, rec- [6] NERC Reliability Standards for transmission planning, [Online]. Avail-
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[7] H. Zhang, V. Vittal, G. T. Heydt, and J. Quintero, “A mixed integer linear
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8
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IX. BIOGRAPHIES
Power Syst., v. 20, no. 3, pp. 1199-1206, Aug. 2005. Jaime Quintero (M’06) received his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering
[16] R. D. Zimmerman, C. E. Murillo-Sánchez, and R. J. Thomas, from Washington State University, Pullman, WA, in 2005. He was an assistant
"MATPOWER: steady-state operations, planning and analysis tools for research scientist at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ. He is currently a full
power systems research and education," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, Professor at the Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Cali, Colombia.
no. 1, pp. 12-19, Feb. 2011.
[17] CPLEX Optimizer, [Online]. Available: Hui Zhang (S’09) received his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from
http://www-01.ibm.com/software/commerce/optimization/cplex-optimiz Arizona State University, Tempe, in 2013. He is currently a real time operations
er/ engineer at California ISO, Folsom, CA.
[18] GUROBI optimization, [Online]. Available: http://www.gurobi.com/ Yacine Chakhchoukh (M’10) received the Ph.D. in electrical engineering in
[19] ABB, GridView – An Analytic Tool for Market Simulation & Asset 2010 from Paris-Sud XI University, Paris, France. His industrial experience is
Performance Evaluations , [Online]. Available: http://www.abb.com. with the French Electrical Transmission Operator (RTE). He is currently with
[20] Ventyx PROMOD IV, [Online]. Available: TokyoTech.
http://www.ventyx.com/analytics/promod.asp
[21] UPLAN Network Power Model, [Online]. Available: Vijay Vittal (S’78–F’97) received the Ph.D. degree from Iowa State Univer-
http://www.energyonline.com/products/uplane.aspx sity, Ames, IA, in 1982. He is currently the Director of the Power Systems
[22] PLEXOS, [Online]. Available: Engineering Research Center (PSERC) and is the Ira A. Fulton Chair Professor
http://energyexemplar.com/products/plexosdesktopedition in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Arizona State University,
[23] PSR NetPlan, [Online]. Available: http://www.psr-inc.com.br/portal/psr/ Tempe. Dr. Vittal is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.
[24] A Modeling Language for Mathematical Programming (AMPL),
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