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    7 views11 pages

    Petrecolla Unbalanced

    Uploaded by

    Juan Cristensen

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    of 11
    6 Unbalanced Development, 1958-62 ALBERTO PETRECOLLA (with the collabo: ion of Gracicla Simén} 1 Frequent and sudden shifts have been an important part of Argentine So erie Pelity since the mid-1950s. The discontinuities have bea soacident that many people have conclude that over the pac thirty Fears there have only been short-term policies. Nevertheless, are fave been several attempts to develop fong-term programmes wince have been subsequently interrupted due to their on, an teomings OF een more frequently, as a result of institutional breakdewne, YS Policy carried out inthe period from the beginning of Lees to {he beginning of 1962 had the explicit and clear aim 9f producing a lasting change in the Argentine economy. ‘The vari have analysed the period have at times stressed the dew opment plan anaat other times the stabilisation programme, but itis eer ther datter was simply an ingredient of the former, The tac plans were indeed considered as an inseparable whole by ther protagonists dn this study we shail consider whether President Frondial cen: omic policy brought about lasting changes in the Argentine economy, ‘shall consider the impzct poteies on the relationship between Argentina's ability to IMPOR and the distribution of income. In section It we shall devecihe ibe objectives of the plan and the principal instcumonts thor neve pind nay: I section Hit we shall deal withthe policy's effects on the Principal macroeconomic variables. In pounder the exchange, fiscal and monetary policies among offen e, Re exogenous variables used as instruments, while the press Product, TenamPesition, the growth rate, the balance of payments‘eml ie ‘istribution of income are part of the endogenous character of wast and monetary policies. In section IV we make some vaine judge. ‘ments concerning the results and sum up our conclusions. 108, Ditadl, Auccte y Devil, Dasiger, the prlibiat } Eerromg of Argerting, M946 - 1933, o Unbalanced Development, 1958-62 1 The economic programme executed between 1958 and 1962 was an aktempt to bring the Axgentiiec economy up to date anal to aceele growth through a substantial increase in investment, cone a few capital-intensive and import-substituting sectors, 7 clements making up the plan were subordinatad to these fades dims. This was especially true of the short-term poliey worked oat ‘owarcs the end of 1958 with the International Monetary Fund whic se gg Sabllisation plan, The success of the development pion demanded a favourable atmosphere for investment. ‘The ‘ener spitlls’ of loval and foreign investors had to be set free. For inet [eon & Mominflationary economy was sought which would keep capital mobility restrictions to a minima and sectors which could enjoy oligopolistie quasi-res {ihe formulation of the development plan was based on convictions hich must be explained. To begin with, the country was losine ground in relative terms. During the postwar period. in spite ef soa inultig industialisation, it had not participated in the updating and development of the European ‘economies with which it wee nevertheless compared. Nor had it been able to keep up with Brasil growth rate. The aztemprs at industralisation had not been eufciers ‘o transforin the so-called “estructura agroexportadora” That mack that the growth rate was limited by the capacity to import, which re urn depended almost exclusively on agricultural exports. Thereiore in order to deal with this supposed barrier, attempts were made te SEP up the import substitution process which had been under way 32 the 19305. National industry had followed the classic path ct Gevelopment, starting with light industry — basically textile ard stecl ‘ustcies ~ and subsequently durable consumer goods. According to the authors of the programme, the economy was then on che threshold of a definitive leap forward that would concentrate tavern ‘ment Ou the so-called basic industries (supposedly those thar woul maximise forward linkages). Since neither local private sources nor the “Argentine state could supply the necessary capital and tech: nology, incentives were granted t0 foreign investors. In this way the Sountty’s internal savings capacity would cease to limit development And at the same time the gap with the developed world would be bridged. On the basis of statements made by the main protagonists, "st of investment priorities was drawn up, including tiny on he different al veate important 10 The Political Economy of Argentina, 1946-83 Petroleum and natural ges; development of chemistry and petso- chemistry; stee! production; the extraction of coal and iron, ane the automobile industry. It is not easy to find a common denominator for this list, although all the items involve import substitution activities The concentration Of investment on these sectors. would create interdependenties and externalities which would stimulate develop. ment. Moder forms of production would be brought into the Gounty in order to free it from its century-old dependency on imported inputs and capital goods. The idea was to give the economy & push which would produce reactions and adjustments that would i, turn demand additional ereative efforts, The specific instruments to be used in order to achieve the steted Priorities were not fully clarified until after several months of government. A first stage, in accordance with other political men Areocets aimed at bringing about a significant increase in real wages through generalised increases in nominal wages. At the seme tare Public utility rates Were maintained at low levels, price controls were

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