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    Engeneering Hydrology Hall

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    MJ. Hall Lecture Notes HHo28/96/1 Engineering Hydrology ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY NOTES, 1996-1997 LIST OF CONTENTS Page 1 INTRODUCTION 1 References 6 Exercises 6 2. WEATHER SYSTEMS 7 2.1 The Formation of Precipitation 7 2.2 Precipitation-producing Weather Systems 8 2.3 Evaporation R References 2 3. PRECIPITATION 14 3.1 The Measurement of Precipitation 14 3.2 Estimation of Areal Average Precipitation 15 3.2.1 The arithmetic mean 16 3.2.2 The Thiessen method 16 3.2.3 The isohyetal method 17 3.3 Precipitation Data for Engineering Design 18 3.3.1 General concepts of exceedance probability and risk 18 3.3.2 Characteristics of storm rainfall 19 3.4 Probable Maximum Precipitation 2 References 23 Exercises 24 Coursework 25 4. EVAPORATION 26 4.1 The Earth’s Heat Balance 26 4.2 Measurement of Evaporation 30 4.3 Estimation of Evaporation 32 4.4 Estimation of Potential Evaporation 35 4.5 Estimation of Actual Evaporation 38 References 39 Coursework 40 Annex 4.1 Tables 4 5. MEASUREMENT OF SURFACE FLOWS 45 5.1 Introduction 45 5.2 The Estimation of Discharge 46 5.2.1 Preamble 46 5.2.2 The velocity-area method 47 5.2.3 Chemical dilution gauging 53 5.3 The Rating Curve 56 5.4 Artificial Controls and Measuring Structures 61 Engineering Hydrology Notes Page i References 63 Coursework 64 Annex 5.1 A Note on Channel Geometry 65 6. STATISTICAL APPLICATIONS IN HYDROLOGY 67 6.1 Some Statistical Concepts 67 6.2 The Screening of Data 70 6.3 Frequency Analysis 16 6.3.1 Some useful frequency distributions 9 6.3.2 Distribution fitting 82 6.3.3 Partial duration series analysis 85 6.3.4 Variability of quantile estimates 86 6.4 Flood Frequency Analysis for Ungauged Catchments 1 References 92 Exercises 93 Coursework 94 7. DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION 7 7.1 Introduction 97 7.2 The Unit Hydrograph Method 98 7.3 The Derivation of Unit Hydrographs 102 7.4 Design Flood Estimation 103 References 107 Exercises 107 Coursework 108 8. FLOOD ROUTING IN OPEN CHANNELS 109 8.1 Introduction 109 8.2 Approximate Routing Methods 110 8.3 Hydrological or Storage Routing Models 113 References 7 Exercises 17 Coursework 119 9. RESERVOIRS 120 9.1 Introduction 120 9.2 Reservoir Routing 121 9.3 Reservoir Yield Analysis 126 References 133 Exercises 133 Coursework 135 Engineering Hydrology Notes Page ii 1, INTRODUCTION There are almost as many definitions of Hydrology as there are textbooks on the subject. However, the following, proposed by UNESCO (1979), contains the more important ingredients: Hydrology is the physical science which treats the waters of the Earth, their occurrence, circulation and distribution, their chemical and physical properties, and their reaction with the environment, including their relation to living things. Hydrology is therefore essentially an interdisciplinary activity, embracing physical, chemical and biological as well as applied sciences, and is concerned with the spatial and temporal distribution and movement of water in all its forms. The latter is implicit in the concept of the hydrological cycle, which illustrates the many pathways by which precipitation on to the land surface finds its way to the oceans, where evaporation provides the supply of moisture for the renewal of the process. This concept dates from the 16th century, prior to which opinion on the source of river flow was divided between the Platonic hypothesis of the existence of a large subterranean sea, called Tartarus, and the Aristotelian concepts of the condensation of ‘air’ underground and of mountains as spongy receptacles (Biswas, 1970). ‘The identification of precipitation as the sole source of streamflow is generally attributed to the French naturalist, Bernard Palissy (1510-1590), the experimental proof of which was provided by studies of the River Seine by the former lawyer, Pierre Perrault (1608-1680). ‘The final piece in the philosophical puzzle was provided by the English Astronomer Royal, Edmund Halley (1656-1742), who showed that evaporation from the oceans was sufficient to replenish the rivers that flowed into them. The existence of the hydrological cycle, a modern pictorial version of which, adapted from Dozier (1992), is shown in Figure 1.1, was thereby placed beyond reasonable doubt. —_-—~newe OS) ore FS tre Figure 1.1 The hydrological cycle in pictorial form (after Dozier, 1992). The boxes represent reservoir volumes in 10° (km)*, and the arrows represent fluxes in 10° (km)"/year. The total reservoir volume is 1.46x10? (km). Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 1 Figure 1.1 shows that a high proportion of terrestrial water upon which human life is so dependent is locked up in the eryosphere and in groundwater. The usable water is therefore ‘no more than perhaps one per cent of the total waters of the Earth, and therefore requires both understanding and ingenuity for its exploitation. Although the pictorial form of Figure 1.1 is useful in imparting the concept of a circulation system driven by an excess of incoming over outgoing radiation, it fails to provide an adequate framework within which to study the component processes. In the latter case, adopting the so-called systems notation, in which the sources of moisture storage are linked by the paths along which water is transported, is more helpful (see Figure 1.2). Figure 1.2 Systems representation of the hydrological cycle (after Dooge, 1973) ‘A closer examination of Figure 1.2 is sufficient to show that hydrologists do not concern themselves with the whole of the hydrological cycle. The oceans are the province of the oceanographer, the atmosphere is studied by the meteorologist, and the lithosphere by the geologist. Indeed, a specific branch of Meteorology, known as Hydrometeorology, is devoted to the study of the atmospheric processes of precipitation and evaporation that affect the water resources of the Earth. What remains is commonly referred to as the land phase of the hydrological cycle. This sub-system, the limits of which are indicted by the broken lines in Figure 1.2, receives an input of precipitation, P, and produces outputs in the form of evaporation, E, and river flow, Q. Further subdivision is possible in order to define the interests of other specialist groups. For example, the soil scientist may limit his interests to the upper soil horizons, which receive water by infiltration, F, or capillary rise, C, and lose water by evaporation, E, deep percolation, R, or throughflow, Q,. However, despite Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 2 the more comprehensive picture provided by the systems representation, one important element is missing - the influence of man. Man has manipulated his environment in general and the land phase of the hydrological cycle in particular since prehistorical times. Wildscape has been cleared for agriculture, forests have been felled for fuel and building materials, swamps have been drained, and most important of all, towns and cities have been constructed in what were once rural areas, With access to modern forms of energy and advances in the design of engineering plant, that ability to manipulate has never been greater. In consequence, the practicing hydrologist must be increasingly aware of anthropogenic influences, on both hydrological processes and the data that are used to describe them (see Seetion 5.2), A fundamental assumption behind both Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2 is that of the hydrological cycle being a closed system, ie there are no gains or losses of water from the cycle. Unfortunately there are many occasions upon which the hydrologist has to deal with an open system in which can only be described by a mass balance or water budget equation in which the difference between input, I, and output, Q, is related to the change in storage, dS, within the time interval dt: 1-9-4 a ay In applying Equation (1.1), care must be taken in defining the so-called control volume or region over which the budget is applicable. For example, for an open water body, such as a lake or reservoir as shown schematically in Figure 1.3a, the inputs to the system consist of the inflow, Q,,, the precipitation, P, on to the water surface and any sub-surface inflow, G,, and the outputs include the outflow, Q,,., the evaporation from the water surface, E, and any sub-surface outflow, G,q. If the change in storage over the chosen time period is AS, which may be positive or negative, then Qn ~ Cour + P - E+ Gin ~ Gay = AS (1.2) Gin Sour b Figure 1.3. The water balance of (a) a lake or reservoir; and (b) a catchment area Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 3 Example 1.1: Clear Lake has a surface area of 708,000 m’. For the month of March, this lake had an inflow of 1.5 m/s and an outflow of 1.25 m'/s. A storage change of +708,000 m’ was recorded. If the total depth of rainfall recorded at the local raingauge was 225 mm for the month, estimate the evaporation loss from the lake. State any assumptions that you make in your calculations. Solution: ‘The evaporation loss may be computed by rearranging Equation (1.2): E=P + Q,~ Quy ~ AS in which seepage is assumed to be negligible. The individual components are then computed as follows: precipitation, P: 225 mm x 708,000 m? / 1000 mm/m = 159,300 m? inflow, Qq: 1.5 m*/s x 86,400 s/d x 31 d/month = 4,017,600 m° outflow, Qj: -1.25 m*/s x 86,400 s/d x 31 d/month = -3,348,000 m* change in storage = - 708,000 m’ hence evaporation, E = 159,300 + 4,017,600 - 3,348,000 - 708,000 = 120,900 mt or 120,900 m’ x 1000 mm/m / 708,000 m? = 171 mm over the lake area. Note: The calculation can also be made directly in terms of mm depth; the important point is to be consistent in terms of units in any water balance as well as in the ssign of each term, ie what is an input and what is an oufput to the control volume. In contrast, if the control volume is a catchment or drainage area bounded by its topographic divide or watershed, as shown in Figure 1.3b, the inputs consist of precipitation, P, and possibly groundwater inflow, G,,, and the outputs comprise the discharge, Q, at the catchment outlet, transpiration from the vegetation growing within the catchment and evaporation from precipitation intercepted on the vegetal canopy held in storage on the ground, E, and possibly groundwater outflow, Gj. The changes in storage, AS, to be considered are principally those in the sub-surface unsaturated and saturated zones, leading Q=P-E+ Gy - Gyy + AS a3 Example 1.2: During the water-year 1994/95, a catchment area of 2,500 (km)? received 1,300 mm of precipitation. The average discharge at the catchment outlet was 30 m'/s, Estimate the amount of water lost due to the combined effects of evaporation, transpiration and percolation to groundwater. Compute the volumetric runoff coefficient for the catchment in the water-year. Solution: Assuming that the changes in storage, AS, are negligible, Equation (1.3) becomes E + Gy ~ Gn = P-Q the runoff, Q = 30 m'/s x 86,400 s/d x 365 d/annum x 1000 mm/m / [2,500 (km)? x (1000 m/km)"] = 378 mm hence the combined loss = 1,300 - 378 = 922 mm ‘The volumetric runoff coefficient, C, is the ratio of the total volume of runoff to Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 4 the total volume of rainfall during a specified time interval; in this case, C = 378 mm/ 1,300 mm = 0.29, ie only 29 per cent of the rainfall reached the ichment outlet within the water-year. If the underlying geology of the catchment is such that the groundwater divide coincides with the topographic divide, ie the catchment is watertight, then the terms, Gq and G,,,, may be deleted. Moreover, if the period over which the balance is considered is sufficiently long, ie the annual seasonal cycle or water year, then AS can be considered to be zero. Of the remaining terms, Q may be measured using standard hydrometric methods (see Section 9), and if sufficient raingauges can be deployed to evaluate spatial variations, P may also be estimated (see Sections 3.1 and 3.2). Although standard methods are available to measure the evaporation from an open water surface (see Section 4.2) or to estimate the evaporation from a uniform stand of vegetation, E for a heterogeneous mixture of both short and tall plants and bare soil is difficult to evaluate independently. Hence la aay Provided that care is taken with the boundary conditions, ie the topography and geology, and the choice of the period over which the balance applies, Equation (1.4) can provide useful results, despite its apparent simplicity. Indeed, this approach has been employed extensively to calibrate indirect methods of estimating the evaporation from an open water body (see Section 4,3), ‘The study of hydrology is traditionally centred upon the description of the component processes of the hydrological cycle. However, when the water resources of a river basin are developed, problems are encountered that do not fit conveniently into such a framework. The engineering hydrologist has to contend with excesses and deficiencies of water, ie hydrological extremes, and with the spatial and temporal occurrence of these extremes, ie the need to transfer water at the right times and in the required quantities. Moreover, the assessment and mitigation of these extremes is invariably carried out without the benefit of a comprehensive data base of hydrological and climatological records. In these circumstances, a more problem-orientated approach is appropriate. This Course therefore begins by enlarging on the physical background of the causative weather systems, and the principal processes of precipitation, evaporation and streamflow. Methods of measurement are described along with the forms in which data are abstracted for use in engineering design. With high-quality hydrological and hydrometeorological records rarely available in sufficient quantity at the most convenient locations, a knowledge of statistical methods is essential in order to extract the maximum amount of information. A series of statistical tools is therefore described which cover the basic concepts of parameter estimation, time-series analysis, frequency analysis and regionalisation. Finally, attention is turned to the two major problems of engineering hydrology: rainfall-runoff relationships; and the assessment of available resources. The former topic covers the well-known unit hydrograph concept as well as flood routing in open channels. The latter is centred on the use of reservoirs, both for the development of water resources and as flood control devices. Each section of these Notes is supplemented, where appropriate, with examples having worked solutions, along with exercises, most of which are in the form of examination Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 5 questions, and coursework examples, a selection of which will form part of the Course, References Biswas, A K, (1970), History of hydrology, North-Holland Publ Co, Amsterdam, 336 pp. Dooge, J C I, (1973), Linear theory of hydrologic systems, US Dept Agric, Agric Res Serv, Tech Bull 1468, 327 pp. Dozier, J, (1992), Opportunities to improve hydrologic data, Rev Geophys, 30, 315-331 UNESCO, (1979), Impact of urbanisation and industrialisation on water resources planning and management, UNESCO Studies and Reports in Hydrology, No 26, 111 pp. Exercises 1, A USWB Class A evaporation pan (see Section 4.2 and Figure (4.3)) is maintained near a small lake in order to determine daily evaporation. The water level in the pan is observed every day, and water is added if the water level falls below about 17.5 cm. Estimate the daily pan evaporation for the 14-day period for which readings are summarised in the following table. Day Rainfall, mm, | Water level, mm, Day Rainfall, mm, | Water level, mm, during the day | _atend of day during the day | at end of day 1 4.1 199.0 8 0.2 182.7 2 3.8 198.0 9 0 180.9 3 42 196.7 10 0 179.4 4 13 196.2 i 0 176.6 5 0.2 193.9 12 0.2 197.7 6 0 189.3 13 0 196.4 7 0.5 185.5 14 0.5 194.9 NB: the pan was filled to a depth of 200 mm at the beginning of both day 1 and day 12 SOLUTION ‘The evaporation for the 14-day period was 43.5 mm Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 6 2. WEATHER SYSTEMS 2.1 The Formation of Precipitation Water is present in the atmosphere as a gas (water vapour), a liquid (cloud droplets) and a solid (ice crystals). The complex process of producing precipitation may be considered to begin with the water vapour, which results from evaporation at the Earth’s surface and various chemical production processes, and has a concentration of about 30 gm/kg (3 per cent by weight) at the surface, reducing with height. The maximum amount of water vapour that can be retained in air is an increasing function of temperature, so that when air is cooled sufficiently and reaches the temperature at which the amount of water vapour present is a maximum (also known as the dewpoint), excess water condenses as droplets or ice crystals. This mechanism, which can be observed in the steam produced by a boiling kettle, is basically that which produces clouds in the atmosphere. However, the appearance of the clouds depends upon the manner in which the cooling occurs, and the density of the cloud droplets is determined by the presence in the atmosphere of aerosols on to which condensation takes place. The latter may be hygroscopic, ie have an affinity for water vapour, such as salt crystals from the oceans, or non-hygroscopic, such as terrestrial dust, ash and soot. According to Jonas (1994a), the most common mechanism for atmospheric cooling is adiabatic expansion of the air, ie expansion without heat transfer. Rising air expands due to the reduction in pressure and cools by about one deg C for every 100 m of ascent. Among the most common causes of uplift are 1. the widespread ascent of air associated with weather fronts (see Section 2.2 below); localised ascent in an unstable atmosphere where more dense air overlies less dense air, as is the case in summer when the surface is relatively warm; and 3. the presence of topography, such as mountain ranges. The first of these mechanisms will produce extensive layers of thick cloud, such as altostratus, whereas the second gives rise to systems of small, dome-shaped cumulus clouds. Ascent forced by mountains may be sufficient to produce stratocumulus clouds that cap the peaks and may persist for long periods. Another common cause of atmospheric cooling is the mixing of two sub-saturated air masses of different characteristics, a mechanism also associated with the initial stages in the formation of fog. The water droplets and ice crystals of which clouds are formed are maintained in suspension by updraughts, which are typically of the order of one m/s (Jonas, 1994b). However, once the cloud particles become sufficiently large, they can no longer be held aloft and precipitation begins. However, the droplets will only reach the ground below if they are not completely evaporated as they fall through the sub-saturated air below the cloud base. In general (Jonas, 1994b), droplets must have an initial diameter of 200 um or larger to fall one km through air with a relative humidity of 80 per cent. Large drops suffer less evaporation owing to their smaller surface area-to-volume ratio and their greater terminal velocity relative to the air. The problem of explaining the formation of precipitation is therefore that of explaining how droplets can grow to more tham 200 ym in diameter within Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 7 a typical cloud. ‘The mechanisms by which cloud droplets grow depend essentially upon whether ice crystals are present or not. Cloud droplets, which are of the order of 10 wm in diameter, freeze at about - 10 deg C, but only do so in the presence of ice nuclei. In clouds composed only of water droplets, which are referred to as warm clouds, the droplets grow either by condensation or coalescence. The former is the process by which the droplets form initially, and may continue as long as they remain within saturated air, as in a rising current. However, since the rate of growth by condensation decreases rapidly with drop diameter, other growth processes have to be active within the relatively short lifetime of precipitating clouds. Since droplets of different sizes fall at different velocities relative to the air, the larger drops may collide with smaller droplets and coalesce, leading to growth that increases rapidly as the drops increase in diameter. In contrast, if clouds are composed of ice crystals, growth occurs by sublimation, ie the conversion of water vapour directly into ice, and is more rapid than in warm clouds, although the coalescence of ice particles is much slower. When the cloud contains a mixture of both water droplets and ice crystals, the latter grow much more rapidly than the former owing to the difference in saturated vapour pressures cover ice and water. Indeed, the growth of the ice crystals may reduce the vapour content of the air sufficiently for it to become sub-saturated with respect to water, leading to the evaporation of the water droplets. The ice particles will then grow rapidly by sublimation. This mechanism, which is known as the Bergeron-Findeisen process, is now accepted as being dominant in mid-latitude precipitating clouds (Jonas, 1994b), and also forms the basis for attempts to modify the properties of clouds by seeding with artificial nuclei. 2.2 Precipitation-producing Weather Systems Although, unlike the meteorologist, the hydrologist is not concerned with the general circulation of the atmosphere and forecasting the movements of the associated weather systems, an appreciation of the latter can be highly relevant in understanding the variability of precipitation in both space and time. Weather systems consist broadly of two types (Young, 1994a): anticyclones, within which the atmospheric pressure is higher than in surrounding areas; and depressions, which are characterised by atmospheric pressure that is lower than in surrounding areas. ‘The term atmospheric pressure, ie force per unit area, may be visualised as the total weight of the air molecules in a column of air over a unit square (1 m’) at sea level. On average (Lawes, 1993), this quantity amounts to about 10,326 kg/m? or 1013.3 mbar (hectopascals). Atmospheric pressure varies from place to place by the action of processes which add or remove air within the column. For example, if an air column of fixed volume is heated, the air expands and molecules are forced to leave, reducing the total weight and therefore the pressure at the surface. Conversely, cooling the column causes the volume to contract, causing more air to enter the column and increase its overall weight. Another common occurrence is the replacement of the air column above a fixed point on the surface by another of different temperature. Cold air replaced by warm (less dense) air results in a fall in pressure, and vice versa. Pressure changes at the surface are also caused by the processes Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 8 of divergence and convergence. These mechanisms take place in the upper levels of the atmosphere some 8-12 km above the surface, and involve the removal or the accumulation of air molecules in the air column, thereby respectively lowering or raising the pressure at the surface. In general, air masses move under the influence of atmospheric pressure differences from high to low pressure areas, However, such flows are affected by the Earth’s rotation such that the winds veer to the right (left) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. At levels above about one km in the atmosphere, where the movement is unaffected by friction at the surface, this Coriolis effect is balanced by the pressure gradient, resulting in the flow occurring at right angles to rather than down the gradient. This geostrophic balance (Lawes, 1993) accounts for the wind direction being approximately along the isobars, ie the lines of equal atmospheric pressure, on a typical synoptic chart employed in weather forecasting. Moreover (Young, 1994a), flow into a region of low pressure tends to veer in an anticlockwise (clockwise) sense towards the centre in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. More detailed explanations of these processes can be found in textbooks such as Meflveen (1986). ‘The isobaric patterns of synoptic charts reflect the action of all the above-mentioned processes, the interaction of which, both horizontally and vertically, is often complex. The vertical structure of the atmosphere at any time can be sensed using a device called a radiosonde, which is a package of sensors for temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed carried aloft by balloon. Data acquired from radiosonds and aircraft-borne sensors since the end of World War II have confirmed the discoveries of earlier in the twentieth century that the behaviour of depressions and anticyclones, also referred to as lows and highs, is related to upper air currents that move around the Earth from west to east in a pattern of waves, often referred to as long or Rossby waves. Lows and highs develop beneath particular features of these waves, the wavelength of which is typically some 40-90 deg of longitude. In general, the pressure is higher under a ridge in the wave, but lower beneath a trough, similar to the variations that would be recorded at the sea bed during the passage of a water wave. However, in the atmosphere, this simple analogy is complicated by the air temperature (see Young, 1994a). Briefly, the presence of warm air to the east of an upper-level trough and cold air to the west displaces the lowest sea-level pressure to the east of the trough and the highest pressure occurs to the west of the upper-level ridge. Hence, depressions are found to the east of upper troughs and anticyclones to the east of upper ridges. As the waves move from west to east, the lows and highs tend to move with them. The relationship between the location of surface depressions and anticyclones and the position of the ridges and troughs in the main upper-air flow in the Northern Hemisphere is sketched in Figure 2.1 (Young, 1994a). As the upper-level air moves from the trough (T) to the ridge (R), it moves along an anticyclonic (clockwise) curved path and divergence (DIV) occurs. The latter is associated with rising air and a lowering of surface pressure, giving rise to conditions favourable for eyclogenesis, or the birth of a depression. In contrast, in moving from ridge (R) to trough (T) in the upper-level air, cyclonic curvature is acquired and convergence (CON) occurs, which is associated with subsiding air, rising surface pressure and the development of anticyclones. If these conditions continue, air at low levels will converge into a low pressure centre and ascend, and the cooling and subsequent condensation Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 9 Figure 2.1 Sketch of the relation between the location of surface depressions and anticyclones and the position of the main upper air troughs and ridges (after Young, 1994a; Fig 3(b), p 309) of moisture will result in widespread clouds and rain. In contrast, the convergence of air above an anticyclone results in a sinking motion that warms (and dries) the air through compression, giving rise to predominantly dry conditions. As the flow nears the surface, it spirals outwards in a clockwise (anticlockwise) direction in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. In practice, this simple picture is complicated by the simultaneous presence of waves of many different scales, so that a typical weather map exhibits both lows and highs with a wide variety of sizes. When cooling takes place as a result of two air masses with contrasting properties converging, frontal precipitation occurs. The boundary between the two air masses is called the frontal zone, and it intersects the ground surface at the front, which may be some 200 km across. The greater the temperature difference, the more active the front. Two distinct types of weather system are obtained according to the direction of the movement. If warm air is forced to rise over cold air, the result is a warm front; cold air pushing under a warm air mass produces a cold front. In both cases (see Figure 2.2) the warm air is made to rise and to cool. The precipitation at the warm front is usually prolonged with the intensity increasing with time. In contrast, the precipitation at a cold front is generally heavy and short-lived. ‘A weather system of particular importance in south east Asia is the monsoon, whose characteristics are strongly dependent upon the seasonal movements of the boundary between air masses originating in the northern and southern hemispheres known as the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In temperate regions, the major precipitation-producing weather patterns are the depressions or mid-latitude cyclones. In the British Isles, more than 60 per cent of the annual precipitation comes from such disturbances, which originate from the polar front formed between polar and sub-tropical air masses. Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 10 AIR MOVEMENT <=> warm ait WARM FRONT (COLD FRONT Figure 2.2 Schematic representation of warm and cold fronts The life cycle, ie the stages in the growth and decay, of a depression was described by the meteorologist, Bjerknes, in the early years of the twentieth century, and has provided the basis for virtually all subsequent forecasting and analysis. As described by Young (1994b), lows usually develop in areas where the horizontal temperature gradient is large, such as the polar front (see Figure 2.3a), with polar air to the north and tropical air to the south. Once cyclogenesis has occurred, three distinct stages of evolution can be identified. Initially, surface winds are parallel to the front. As divergence occurs at upper levels and surface pressure falls, the surface winds begin to converge towards the low pressure region, but are deflected by the Coriolis force so that they circle the depression centre. The cold air then begins to push underneath the warm, moist air on the western side, forming the cold front, and the warm air is forced to rise over the cold air to the east, forming the worm front. The depression forms at the intersection between these two fronts. On the western side, the cold front moves in a south-easterly direction, and to the east, the warm front advances northwards. The region between the two fronts is referred to as the warm sector, and this stage of development is called a wave depression (see Figure 2.3b). As the pressure at the centre continues to fall, the circulation around the depression becomes more vigorous. Since the cold air displaces the less dense warm air more readily than the warm air moves the cold air, the cold front moves faster than the warm front and the warm sector shrinks, giving rise to the warm sector depression of Figure 2.3c. The life cycle reaches its fourth and final stage when the cold front overtakes the warm front, lifting the air of the warm sector and giving rise to the occluded depression of Figure 2.3d. ‘The low pressure centre now fills as pressure rises and the depression dies. This sequence generally occupies some 3-4 days, during which precipitation, as indicated by the hatched areas in Figure 2.2, may be experienced along both fronts and, when the depression is very active, at the occlusion. At any stage, precipitation may be enhanced by orographic effects. Another important type of weather system for the hydrologist is convective precipitation, which results from maritime air masses moving over land at a higher temperature. The air is heated and forced to rise by convection, often leading to high-intensity rainfalls of limited duration. This activity may also be accompanied by thunder and lightning. In extreme cases, Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 11 pg BE 0 oe WAR AR Figure 2.3. _Life cycle of a depression (after Young, 1994b; Fig 2, p 363) hail is formed. Convective activiity is almost a daily occurrence in the tropics, but does not always produce precipitation, At higher latitudes, convection is common during the summer, and may also occur along frontal zones, resulting in high rainfall intensities over limited areas. 2.3 Evaporation The brief description of the hydrological cycle in Section 1 is sufficient to show the importance of evaporation, as the primary means of water transfer from the oceans, which contain 95 per cent of the Earth's water, to the atmosphere. In order to convert liquid water to the gaseous state at constant temperature, an amount of heat must be supplied, referred to as the latent heat of vaporisation, by net incoming radiation at the water surface. The rate at which evaporation occurs depends upon several factors. Firstly, there must be a temperature difference between the surface and the overlying air. Secondly, the vapour pressure of the air must be less than the saturated vapour pressure at that temperature so that additional water vapour can be absorbed. Thirdly, wind speed governs the rate at which the saturated air is replaced by drier air from outside. The evaporation from a vegetated surface is a function of the same climatological variables, but is also dependent upon soil moisture. Where the supply of moisture from this source is unlimited, as in a well-irrigated crop, the amount of water used is referred to as the potential evaporation. Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 12 References Jonas, P R, (1994a), Back to basi why do clouds form? Weather, 49 (5), 176-180. Jonas, P R, (1994b), Back to basics: why does it rain? Weather, 49 (7), 258-260. Lawes, H D, (1993), Back to basics: an introduction to meteorology for students and young people, Weather, 48 (10), 339-344. Mellveen, J F R, (1986), Basic meteorology: a physical outline, Van Nostrand Reinhold (UK) Co Ltd, Wokingham, 457 pp. Young, M V, (1994a), Back to basics: depressions and anticyclones: part 1 - introduction, Weather, 49 (9), 306-311. Young, M V, (1994b), Back to basics: depressions and anticyclones: part 2 - life eycles and weather characteristics, Weather, 49 (11), 362-370. Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 13, 3. PRECIPITATION 3.1 The Measurement of Precipitation Precipitation is perhaps the component of the hydrological cycle for which the most records are available, Raingauges are known to have been used in Korea in the 15th century, and the basic principle of measurement has remained unchanged up to the present day. Rainfall is most commonly measured on a daily basis, with observations taken at the same time every morning. The raingauge usually consists of a cylinder of fixed diameter, installed with its axis vertical and the sampling orifice horizontal and at a set distance above the ground surface. A funnel inside the top of the cylinder leads the water caught by the orifice into a glass bottle with a narrow neck that minimises evaporation loss. Typical designs of total rainfall recorders are illustrated in Figure 3.1. TTR URAT Octapent ‘Seatnthwaite Figure 3.1 Standard total rainfall recorders (after Shaw, 1983) ‘The simplicity of this measurement contrasts markedly with the complexity of precipitation patterns and the weather systems that produce them. Since it is impossible to catch all the rain falling on to a catchment, the variations in depth across the area must be sampled at a selected number of representative locations. The depth of precipitation obtained at a raingauge is therefore often referred to as a point measurement, and techniques are required for deducing the average rainfall depth over the catchment from the gauge readings. This problem is discussed below in Seetion 3.2. For many problems in engineering design, a time interval of one day is too long. In order to measure the rain falling within shorter intervals, various types of continuous recording Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 14 devices have been developed, of which the tilting-syphon and tipping-bucket types are now the most prevalent. As illustrated in Figure 3.2, in the tilting-syphon type, water is led into a collecting chamber containing a float. A pen attached to the float records the accumulated amount on a clockwork-driven chart. The chamber is balanced upon a knife-edge such that, when full, it tips over and activates a syphon. A counterweight restores the empty chamber to its former position and the pen returns to the bottom of the chart. The capacity of the chamber is usually about 5 mm of rainfall depth. DIES TLTING-SYPHON TePNG- BUCKET N 2 NN a enact inet tne 7 sipton bucket — aie ecg ape Figure 3.2 Standard autographic rainfall recorders (after Shaw, 1983) The principle of the tipping-bucket gauge is also shown in Figure 3.2. In this case, the funnel of the raingauge discharges into one half of a wedge-shaped bucket of fixed capacity. When full, the bucket tips and the identical container in the opposite half of the wedge begins to fill. Each tip of the bucket is recorded as a pulse on a clockwork driven chart; alternatively, the number of tips during a predetermined time interval may be obtained, Unfortunately, in addition to the distinction between daily (storage-type) gauges and continuously-recording (autographic) gauges, the dimensions of the instrument itself, particularly the height above ground and the diameter of the orifice, may vary from country to country. The choice of the height represents a compromise between being tall enough to prevent insplash from the surroundings and burying by snow, and being as near to the ground as possible to prevent reductions in the catch caused by the eddying of wind around the rim of the gauge. In upland areas notorious for strong winds, the gauge may even be protected by a turf wall, or the gauge may be buried with its orifice at ground level. Since systematic differences in catch may be expected from raingauges set at different heights, care must be taken in combining data for the calculation of (say) catchment average rainfall totals. Moreover, the amount of rain recorded is sensitive to the extent to which the site is either over-exposed or over-sheltered, changes in which over time may result in an inconsistent data set (see Section 6 below). 3.2 Estimation of Areal Average Precipitation Athough rainfall may vary in space across a river basin, the majority of the simpler methods Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 15 for relating rainfall to streamflow require the average depth over the catchment. There are three methods for computing the areal average rainfall depth from several point rainfall totals that have been in use for many years. The details of these techniques are most conveniently discussed in relation to an example, such as that shown in Figure 3.3. 3.2.1 The arithmetic mean This, the simplest of the methods, uses the average of the rainfall totals from all gauges within the catchment as the areal average. If the topography of the catchment is relatively flat, and/or the spacing of gauges is reasonably uniform, this approach gives comparable results to the other two standard methods. 3.2.2 The Thiessen method This method consists of six steps (see Figure 3.3): the raingauge locations are plotted on a map of the river basin; lines are drawn connecting adjacent raingauge locations; perpendicular bisectors are drawn for all the lines constructed in step (2) above; the bisectors are joined to form polygons around each gauge location; the areas enclosed between the polygon around each gauge and the catchment boundary are measured, and weights computed from the ratio of the measured area to the total catchment area (note that the weights should sum to unity); and 6. — the catchment average rainfall is obtained from the sum of the products of the catch at each gauge and its weight. yeeee The basic assumption of this approach is that the variation of depth between gauges is linear. Using this assumption, the method assigns segments of the catchment to the nearest raingauge. The principal disadvantages of the technique are that new weights must be computed if the number of gauges changes; and there is no opportunity to incorporate local knowledge of the catchment topography that might alter the weight. Example 3.1: The following table lists the storm rainfall totals for several raingauges within a catchment area along with their Thiessen weights. Estimate the average rainfall for this event over the catchment area. Solution: Raingauge |} Total, mm || Weight || Weight x Total 185551 10 0.09 0.90 185565 20 0.31 6.20 188370 2 0.05 1.10 188433, 24 0.21 5.04 188531 18 0.34 6.12 Total 19.36 Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 16 3.2.3 The isohyetal method This approach involves drawing contours of equal rainfall depth, known as isohyets, by interpolation from the observed rainfall depths plotted on a map of the river basin. By hand, the method is laborious and time-consuming but flexible in that the position of the isohyets can be adjusted to incorporate the effects of sharp changes in topography. With the more widespread use of computers, this approach has been updated by the application of machine- based interpolation techniques, such as trend surfaces and multiquadric surfaces (see, for example, Singh, 1976; Shaw and Lynn, 1972). pet cree nd tarot waters eam ene come raegmges em promos maces 4 canoe peer em waco Figure 3.3 Estimation of catchment average rainfall by the Thiessen method Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 17 3.3 Precipitation Data for Engineering Design 3.3.1 General concepts of exceedance probability and risk A hydrologist has to deal with natural phenomena, such as heavy rainfall and floods, whose occurrence is essentially random. Since the cost of engineering structures tends to increase rapidly with the rarity of the adopted design event, the choice of an appropriate design frequency is ideally based upon an economic analysis in which the benefits of the works, in terms of the damage costs avoided, are balanced against construction costs. For schemes whose capital value does not justify the time and effort involved in cost-benefit analysis, certain design standards have come to be accepted as being sufficient to ensure that the works will withstand a reasonably wide range of stresses during their working lives. These design standards are generally expressed in terms of the 1-in-T year flood, which is defined as the flood, X, whose probability of being equalled or exceeded in any one year is equal to (UT): 1 Pe>xy=4 ae G1) Alternatively, the average time between occurrences of the event, X, is T years. Unfortunately, this method of expressing the design standard can easily lead to misconceptions. For example, the occurrence of the design event, X, in the current year does NOT mean that X will not occur again for another T years. Care must be taken to distinguish between the probability of exceedance, and the risk of an event occurring within a design life for the structure. The connection between the two can easily be deduced from elementary concepts of probability. If the probability of exceedance of an event is (1/T), then the probability that the event will not occur in any one year is 1 - (1/T). In a design life of N years, the probability of no occurrences is the probability 1 - (1/'T) raised to the power of, N. The risk, Rj, of at least one event occurring is therefore 1" R 1-(1-3) q 62) Another question that is sometimes asked is the probability of exactly K events occurring within the next N years. In brief, this probability is given by the Binomial distribution: =—M___ px — pywx P(KN) mom PK(1- PY (3.3) where P is again the exceedance probability of (1/T). For example, the probability of experiencing one event in N years is P(N) =NP(L-P)Yt (3.4) so that the risk, R,, of experiencing at least two events in N years is obtained by subtracting Equation (3.4) from Equation (3.2) 1\" xi le si-(1-4] -4fi-4 a ( 7] Tr T G.5) Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 18 Example 3,2: Estimate the risk that a ten-year event will occur within a design life of ten years. What is the risk of at least 2 ten-year events occurring within the same design life? Solution: With N = 10 and T = 10, Equation (3.1) gives R, = 0.65; however, the risk of at least two event occurring, R,, is found from Equation (3.5) to be 0.26. These figures compare with the probability of occurrence in any one year of 0.1. 3.3.2 Characteristics of storm rainfall ‘When dealing with rainfall statistics, the meteorologist tends to work in terms of rainfall depths, whereas hydrologists and engineers generally prefer to employ average rainfall intensities. The latter are simply defined as the total depth divided by the total duration of rainfall. Compilation of statistics of heavy rainfalls during short durations was hampered by the lack of suitable instruments and the limited coverage of raingauge networks until well into the 20th century. However, even before the systematic analysis of autographic rainfall records was undertaken, the following characteristics of storm rainfall had become well- established by observation: 1. as the duration of a storm increases, the average rainfall intensity decreases for any given return period; and 2. as the return period increases, average rainfall intensity increases for any given duration. These variations can be described by rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) or depth- duration-frequency (DDF) relationships, but, having been derived from individual raingauge records, these only relate to point rainfall. Data from networks of gauges must be analysed to evaluate spatial effects, resulting in a third generalisation: 3. the greater the area covered by a storm, the lower the average rainfall intensity compared with the maximum rainfall intensity recorded within the area. ‘The ratio between the areal average and the maximum point rainfall intensity is referred to as an areal reduction factor (ARF). However, in practice, care must be taken to distinguish between two cases. If the intensities are computed for an individual rainfall event, the ARF is said to be storm-centred (see Court, 1961). However, the more useful factor for engineering design purposes is that for which both the areal average and the maximum point rainfalls correspond to the same return period, ie are estimated from rainfall statistics gathered from many storm events. In these Notes, the latter definition is used, unless stated to the contrary. ‘There are many forms of rainfall IDF relationships to be found in the literature. One of the more common expressions is A ee (t+ By (3.6) where i is the average rainfall intensity over the duration t, and A, B, and m are constants Engineering Hydrology Notes v 3.0 Page 19 which may vary with return period. A disadvantage of formulae such as Equation (3.6) is that a single expression can only reflect average conditions over a region, and the systematic departures from the formula may be hydrologically significant. For this reason, most national rainfall statistics are now presented in terms of index values, such as the 5-year, 2-day rainfall depth, or the 5-year, 60-minute rainfall depth, which are mapped, as in the UK Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975). The depths for other durations and other return periods are then obtained from the index values using tables of depth-duration ratios and depth- frequency ratios. Unfortunately, despite the widespread use of raingauges, the occasions on which the hydrologist has little or no data upon which to base estimates of design rainfall intensities is all too common, In these circumstances, one of the generalised DDF relationships may be employed. All such relationships depend upon the assumption that extreme rainfalls having a duration of (say) 2 hours or less usually result from similar weather systems, such as convective cells, which are known to have comparable physical properties in a variety of different climates. A widely-employed example of a generalised DDF relationship is that proposed by Bell (1969), which is based upon the following expression for P,', the rainfall depth for duration t and return period T: Py = PS (0.35 In T + 0.76 ) (0.54 1° - 0.5 ) 6.2 which applies to return periods between 2 and 100 years, and durations between 5 and 120 minutes. The structure of Equation (3.7) shows that the depth-duration ratios are assumed independent of frequency, and depth-frequency ratios are assumed independent of duration. In this case, the index rainfall is P,*, the 2-year, 60-minute depth. This value can be estimated from even a short length of record, but in the total absence of data, the following additional equations may be used: PS = 0.17 Py, M8; 0< P< 50,1< M < 80 - 67 4033 0.617 P27 M°% ; 50 < Pas < 115, 1

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