Bayes’ Theorem Examples Economics Statistics E A company is producing two types of ski goggles. Thirty percent of the production is of type A, and the rest is of type B. Five percent of all type A goggles are returned within 10 days after the sale, whereas only two percent of type B are returned. If a pair of goggles is returned within the first 10 days after the sale, what is the probability that the goggles returned are of type B? Baya Ormint Pro (alay= fabl Als) rovl#) “}—— Pre Ct) Qumarehied © ppb Bel) = foatel A] the) Fob 7 Eas lAl&) Pr Pb Ale fob (Si Ty Pb ANB) Pool Sn) Ut Fe dense te erent quanto podvad ove tHe z are petvined, Ub dana, tea awd pre Jeg we una = qhicky peut of tee > _ ne cur of type 8 fool i= 0.3 fable) = 09gob t el 6 = OOF frol €l faye O02 p prow Aw we wi wee te 6, hans beer palv ered \ Pre ( fo [6)° ya age OO fre (mIR)= fav (21 Fe (Fa)! fon) Paley ~ frre Kia) Art * pat tilay Poe (> 7 Bub RI fay tals Fr) (0.62) (0) + (025) (0-3) = 1oa47%Example 2: At Joe's Restaurant, 80 percent of the diners are new customers (N), while 20 percent are returning customers (R). Fifty percent of the new customers pay by credit card, compared with 70 percent of the regular customers. If a customer pays by credit card, what is the probability that the customer is a new customer? Cy duno fe tvint a Cowher Let ” of tye i fw Meo | tahini) « LA 0 furike fle rink & wipe pap { ( ; by ond card. (ve Word « oA are nw wipes, TW feraynvns - fab Ley\ = 0-Po - fae(6e\ = 6-20 Go % oe MV py Joy of Reber PAT — Pro blew) os - froe( [Ens 2-2We wir to bret an pobaeili ly oO customer Mw Wee bh or dre parya vy ort card. fre (én[b)= * far ¢ Lyd) & farcn lea) | Arte (o> Yriol >) e _ babcnlé ev) Probl) (Presley) Fablew) t Pal olce Ae), _ OF) (7%) (on) (or i) € (N87) 2 0.1407 You raeey ob (dle) Pro ew) preec nen) PreCoe) 7 got praia for the contra Provae tity fro © #18) © Prt pnt) marae oh Be Cis nee! gaily Toh oa Dab CO) equal ler te