Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Lesson 4
INFLATION
Prepared by: Nguyen Thi Xuan Lan, PhD.
INFLATION
Inflation and Deflation
Causes of Inflation
Measurement and Calculations of
Inflation
Effects of Inflation
Control of Inflation
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Introduction
Inflation
Deflation
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• Real value
• Value expressed in purchasing power, adjusted
for inflation
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Types of inflation
Hyperinflation • when prices rise more than 50 percent a month
( siêu LP) • only caused by massive military spending
Galloping inflation • prices rise 10 percent or more a year;
(LP phi mã) • It can destabilize the economy
• Prices increase 3‐10 percent a year,
Walking, or
enough for people to stock up now to
pernicious, inflation
avoid higher prices later
Creeping inflation when prices rise 3 percent a year or less. It
( LP bò) occurs when the economy is doing well
occurs somewhere nearly all the time.
Asset price For xample, each spring oil and gas prices spike
inflation because commodities traders bid up oil prices.
Causes of Inflation
REVIEW:
• Fisher’s Quantity Theory of Money
• Keynes’s Theory of Money: Liquidity
Preference Theory
• Friedman’s Modern Quantity Theory of
Money
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Causes of Inflation
An increase in
demand ( a shift in
the demand curve
to the right)
A decrease in
supply (a shift of
the supply curve to
the left) 9
Causes of Inflation
Increase in demand Decrease in supply
S1
Price
Price S
S ($)
($) P1
P1
Pe
Pe
D1
D D
Q1 Qe
Qe Q1 Quantity
Quantity
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Causes of Inflation
• Any inflation that results from an increase in
demand is called demand‐pull inflation
• Caused by
• Increased Incomes
• Decreased income taxes
• Increased optimism about the future
• Decreased tendency to save
• Consumers expect prices to rise in the future
• More money in the economy
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Causes of inflation
• Any inflation that results from a
decrease in supply is called cost‐push inflation.
• Caused by
• Increased costs of raw materials
• Increased Wages
• Failure to replace capital goods as they age,
reducing its productivity, or increasing
its maintenance costs
• Falling Productivity of workers 12
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Demand-Pull Inflation
Demand‐pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand is
greater than aggregate supply. People have money to
spend and there simply isn’t enough for consumers to
buy.
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Cost-Push Inflation
Cost‐push inflation occurs when certain inputs that are
universally important to business operations rise in price
(i.e., oil). For all businesses, this creates a situation in
which the cost of producing has gone up – so many will
choose to produce less.
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MEASUREMENT AND
CALCULATIONS OF INFLATION
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Quyền số chỉ số giá tiêu dùng thời kỳ 2015-2020 của toàn quốc
Các nhóm hàng và dịch vụ Quyền số (%)
Tổng chi cho tiêu dùng cuối cùng 100,00
I- Hàng ăn và dịch vụ ăn uống 36,12
1. Lương thực 4,46
2. Thực phẩm 22,60
3. Ăn uống ngoài gia đình 9,06
II. Đồ uống và thuốc lḠ3,59
III- May mặc, mũ nón, giầy dép 6,37
IV- Nhà ở, điện, nước, chất đốt và VLXD 15,73
V- Thiết bị và đồ dùng gia đình 7,31
VI- Thuốc và dịch vụ y tế 5,04
Dịch vụ y tế 3,87
VII- Giao thông 9,37
VIII- Bưu chính viễn thông 2,89
IX- Giáo dục 5,99
Dịch vụ giáo dục 5,16
X- Văn hoá, giải trí và du lịch 4,29
XI- Hàng hoá và dịch vụ khác 3,30
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Measuring the rate of inflation
• Price Index The cost of today’s market basket of
goods expressed as a percentage of the cost of
the same market basket during a base year
• Market Basket Representative bundle of goods
and services
• Base Year The point of reference for comparison
of prices in other years
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• Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index
• A statistical measure of average price using
annually updated weights based on consumer
spending
• Primary inflation index used by the Federal
Reserve
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8-33
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8-34
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35
8-35
Deflation
• Deflation is an actual fall in the average price level.
• In contrast, disinflation (thiểu phát) is a reduction in
the inflation rate.
• Deflation is a problem for two reasons:
• First, deflation usually means demand is so weak
that businesses cannot raise their prices.
• Second, deflation hurts borrowers because they
are paying back their loans with more expensive
dollars.
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8-36
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Control of inflation
•Requires a powerful commitment to stable prices
implies strict control over G (G = T)
• control over inflation in hands of CB
inflation is lower in countries with independent CB
• The government needs to set clear inflation targets
avoids govt pressure to relax monetary policy
• The government not permitted to finance deficits
through creation of high‐powered money
must borrow from private sector 37
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