Traditional

Forecasting Model
Land Use Model
The region is divided into zones and by trend or

Economic and Land Use

regression analysis, the population and
employment are determined for each.

Modeling
Trip Generation Model
The frequency of origins or destinations of trips
in each zone is determined by land use and socio-
economic factors.

Zonal Interchange Model

Based on data from origin and destination
surveys, the origins by zone are distributed by a
model as destinations to zones.

Trip Interchange Modal Split Model

David Levinson The traffic between zones is allocated to the

available modes of transportation according to
factors of trip, trip maker, and model.

Network Assignment Model

All trips are assigned to networks. Some
modeling efforts allowed capacity constraints on
assignments which caused looping back through
modal split and zonal interchange models.

Precursor and Economic Base

Postprocessor Models Modeling
• Before the model, input data/forecasts • Basic vs. Non-basic activities.
required. This is also modeled. This • What is basic industry?
includes: demographics, economics, land • What is non-basic?
use.
• After the model forecasts are produced,
analysis must be done.

Location Quotients Interpretation

Employment sp
• If LQ>1, this indicates a relative
∑ Employment sp
concentration of the activity in area I,
s
∑ Employment sp
compared to the region as a whole.
p
• If LQ =1, the area has a share of the activity
∑ ∑ Employment sp in accordance with its share of the base.
s p
• If LQ<1, the area has less of a share of the
• Where s = sector of the economy, p = activity than is more generally, or regionally,
location found.
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 LQ - Example LQ - Solution
Employment in Total • Numerator: 53,000/729,341 = 0.073
Transportation Employment • Denominator: 84,955/1,773,259 = 0.048
Equipment
Manufacturing • LQ = 0.073/0.047 = 1.51
King County 53,000 729,341 • Conclusion: King County has a
concentration on transportation equipment
Washington 84,955 1,773,259 manufacturing (no surprise, Boeing is there).
State

Location Quotient:
Minnesota Data Shift/Share Analysis
Location Quotient for Selected Industries in Minnesota (2000)

Furniture and Fixtures

• LQ only tells you what is, not what might be.
Business Services

High Technology
• Growth in the activity in a specific sector
Finance Insurance and Real
depends on
Estate

Health Services • The study area’s share of national (or

Lumber and Wood Products regional) growth.
Industrial Equipment
• The mix change in activities.
Food

Printing
• And the shift change of activities toward the
Paper
study area
Medical Devices

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Employment e in Sector
Shift-Share Discussion
i at Time t+n
• Requires more information

eit +n − eit = share change + mix change + shift change

or
 E t +n   E t +n E t +n   e t +n E t +n 
eit +n − eit = eit  t −1 + eit  i t − t  + eit  i t − i t 
 E   Ei E   ei Ei 

Where E is total employment, e is local employment, activity

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 Distribution of Land
Uses by Distance from
100
CBD
Vacant

Retail

Land
Use Etc.

Residential
0

Lowry Model
Start with exogenously given export industry
employment levels.

Traffic Use gravity model to allocate export industry

workers to residences.

Zones Estimate levels of local service sector demand

Allocate local service industry workers to

residences

Re-estimate local service demand

Check to see if last step significantly changed

local service demand and to see if local
constraints are violated

If so, iterate again on allocation of local service If not, solution is complete

workers to residences

Variables Land Use

• A = area of land (thousand • U = unusable (land) • We are given the area of each tract, and the amount of land
square feet) • B = basic sector therein which is not usable by any of the activities with
• E = employment (number of • R = retail sector which we are concerned. The remainder of the land in
persons) • H = household sector each tract is available for use by basic establishments, retail
• N = population (number of • k = class of establishments establishments, and households. All land not otherwise
households) within the retail sector; also assigned is treated as available for residential use.
defines related class of
• T = index of trip distribution “shopping” trips
• Z = constraints
• Unspecified functions and
• m = number of classes of retail
establishments (k = 1 , ... , m) Aj = AUj + AjB + AjR + AjH
coefficients are represented by • i, j = subarea of a bounded
lower-case letters: a, b, c, d, e, f, region, called tracts
g. • n = number of tracts (i = 1 , ... ,
n; j = 1 , ... , n)

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 Basic Sector Retail Sector
• Retail establishments are divided into  m  groups, each of which has a
• For each tract, we are given exogenously the characteristic production function; the elements of this production
quantity of land used by basic function which enter directly into the model are: minimum efficient
size of establishment, number of clients required to support one
establishments (AjB)  and the employment employee, and number of square feet of space per employee. Since
local consumer demand provides the market for establishments of this
opportunities provided by these sector, we may treat employment in each line of retail trade as roughly a
function of the number of households in the region:
establishments (EjB). – Actually the minimum number of employees per tract; these employees
may represent more than one establishment of the same type.
n
Ek = a k + N E k = ∑ Ejk
j =1

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Retail Distribution
• The distribution of this retail employment among the square-mile tracts
depends on the strength of the market at each location. Assuming that
shopping trips originate either from homes or from workplaces, the
market potential of any given location can be defined as a weighted
index of the numbers of households in the surrounding areas, and the
number of persons employed nearby.
Retail Land
Consumption
• Finally, with the aid of exogenously-determined
employment-density coefficients (e k) for each line of trade,
we can determine the amount of land in each tract which
will be occupied by retail establishments.

n   m
c Ni
Ejk = b k ∑ k k  + d k Ej  Ej = EjB + ∑ Ejk
 i =1  Tij 
  k =1
m
AjR = ∑ e k Ejk
k =1

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Household Sector Constraints 1/3

• The region’s population of households may be regarded as
a function of total employment.
• The number of households in each tract is a function of that
tract’s accessibility to employment opportunities.
• The coefficient g is a scale factor whose value is
determined by the requirement that the sum of tract
populations must equal the total population of the region as
determined below.
• In order to limit the dispersion of retail employment, we
impose a minimum-size constraint  (Zk), expressed in
terms of employment. If the market potential of a
particular location does not justify an establishment above
this minimum size, the “customers” are sent elsewhere.

n n

N = f ∑ Ej N j = g∑ Ej
n
N = ∑ Nj Ejk ≥ Z k ,or else Ejk = 0
j =1 j =1
j =1

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 Constrains 2/3 Constraint 3/3
• In order to prevent the system from generating excessive • Finally, the amount of land set aside for retail
population densities in location with high accessibility
indices, we impose a maximum-density constraint  (ZjH) . establishments by Equation 6 must not
The value of this constraint (number of households exceed the amount available.
permitted per 1,000 square feet of residential space) may
vary from tract to tract, as would be the case under zoning
ordinances. AjR ≤ Aj − AUj − AjB

N j ≤ ZjH AjH
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Penn-Jersey Model
Fixed parameters and functions (A)
Kain’s Model
State Stock of land and buildings Distribution of residents Generalized transportation
variables by area and activity by area system
at time t
Parameters: Updated since t=1 Exogenous Endogenous Exogenous
• Income Variables Variables Variables
Projected • Housing and travel cost Changes in transportation
immigration and • Area rents and rates of facilities
Changes in land policy and change
Exogenous exogenous growth
location of specialized
Inputs of business activity
groups Use of land Family Size
3. Calculate least-time
paths and accessibility
Income and
1. Land Market: 2. Household and Business Change: measures
Preliminary
percent workers
• Input policy changes • “Age” population, generating changes
Calculations who are male
• Make land available for purchase of state Auto ownership Quality of public
• Apply zoning and competitive exclusion • Generate relocators and stock of 4. Calculate locational transport
released space (B) costs, budgets and rent-
paying abilities for
Pools of space households
Elements of the • Vacant land Pool of locators
Locational • Redeveloped land • Forced relocation
7. Calculate budgets, Choice of mode Percent workers
Process • Vacant building space • Voluntary relocation (C)
locational costs and rent- in labor force
• Immigration and business growth
paying abilities of
footloose industries.
5. Simulate locational 6. Locate residence- 8. Simulate location of
Location & (B)
competition of home serving industries “footloose” industries (A) Travel time Land price
Movement renters and purchasers
Simulation
(C)
9. Simulate transportation
movement of new pattern
Update all state variables. Organize, record, analyze dual variables transportation network
performance, other system characteristics.