❳⑩❈ ❙❯❻❚ ❚❍➮◆● ❑➊

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚&

✣➔ ◆➤♥❣✱ ✷✵✶✾

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✴✸✽

❈❤"#♥❣ ✻✿ ❑✐➸♠ ✤-♥❤ ❣✐↔ /❤✉②➳/ /❤3♥❣ ❦➯

✶✳ ❈→❝ ❦❤→✐ ♥✐➺♠
✶✳✶ ●✐↔ 6❤✉②➳6 6❤:♥❣ ❦➯
✲ ●✐↔ #❤✉②➳# #❤(♥❣ ❦➯ ❧➔ ❝→❝ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤+♥❤ ✈➲ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤0✐ ❝2❛ 45♥❣ 4❤➸ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝8✉✳ ❈< 4❤➸✱
✤> ❧➔ ❝→❝ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤+♥❤ ✈➲ ❣✐→ 4?+ ❝❤@❛ ❜✐➳4 ❝2❛ 4❤❛♠ D0 ✤0✐ ✈E✐ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤0✐ ✤➣ ❜✐➳4✱ ❝→❝
❦❤➥♥❣ ✤+♥❤ ✈➲ ❞↕♥❣ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤0✐ ❝❤@❛ ❜✐➳4 ❤❛② ✈➲ ♠0✐ J✉❛♥ ❤➺ ❣✐L❛ ❝→❝ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥✳

❱➼ ❞? ✶
✰ ●.✐ µ ❧➔ #✉1✐ #❤. #2✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝6❛ ♥❣89✐ ❱✐➺# ◆❛♠✳ ●✐↔ #❤✉②➳# #❤(♥❣ ❦➯ ❝? #❤➸ ❧➔✿
µ = 60 ✭#✉1✐✮ ❤♦➦❝ µ > 60✱ ❤♦➦❝ µ 6= 60✱ ✳✳✳
✰ ●.✐ p ❧➔ #➾ ❧➺ ♣❤➳ ♣❤➞♠ ❝6❛ ♥❤➔ ♠→② ❆✳ ●✐↔ #❤✉②➳# #❤(♥❣ ❦➯ ❝? #❤➸ ❧➔✿ p < 0, 1
❤♦➦❝ p = 0, 1 ❤♦➦❝ p 6= 0, 1❀ ✳✳✳
❑❤✐ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝8✉ 4❛ ❝> 4❤➸ ✤@❛ ?❛ ♥❤✐➲✉ ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❚?♦♥❣ ❝❤@R♥❣ ♥➔②✱ ❝❤S♥❣
4❛ ❝❤➾ ❦❤↔♦ D→4 ❜➔✐ 4♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤+♥❤ ✈E✐ ❤❛✐ ❣✐↔ 6❤✉②➳6 ♠➔ 4❤U✐✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✴✸✽

✲ ❇➔✐ #♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤O♥❤ ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# ❧➔ ❜➔✐ 4♦→♥ ❣V♠ ♠W4 ❝➦♣ ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 4❤0♥❣ ❦➯ ♠➙✉ 4❤✉➝♥
♥❤❛✉ ✤@Y❝ ✤@❛ ?❛ ①❡♠ ①➨4 ✤➸ ❝❤]♥ ♠W4 ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ✤S♥❣✳ ▼W4 4?♦♥❣ ❤❛✐ ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ✤>
✤@Y❝ ❣✐↔ ✤+♥❤ ❜❛♥ ✤➛✉ ❧➔ ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ✤S♥❣✱ ❣]✐ ❧➔ ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# ❣(❝ ✈➔ ✤@Y❝ ❦➼ ❤✐➺✉ ❧➔ H0 ✳
●✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ❝b♥ ❧↕✐ ❣]✐ ❧➔ ✤(✐ #❤✉②➳#✱ ✤@Y❝ ❦➼ ❤✐➺✉ ❧➔ H1 ✳
(
H0 : ❣✐↔ 4❤✉②➳4 ❣0❝

H1 : ✤0✐ 4❤✉②➳4

✲ ❑✐➸♠ ✤O♥❤ ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# ❧➔ ♣❤@R♥❣ ♣❤→♣ Dc ❞<♥❣ ♠➝✉ ❞L ❧✐➺✉ 4❤✉ ✤@Y❝ ✤➸ ✤@❛ ?❛ J✉②➳4
✤+♥❤ ❜→❝ ❜d H0 ❤❛② ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H0 ✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✴✸✽

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 ✶✳✷ ◆❣✉②➯♥ ❧* ①→❝ .✉➜0 ♥❤2 ✈➔ ①→❝ .✉➜0 ❧5♥
✲ ◆❣✉②➯♥ ❧➼ ①→❝ +✉➜- ♥❤/✿ ▼#$ ❜✐➳♥ ❝* ❝+ ①→❝ .✉➜$ 1➜$ ♥❤3 ❣➛♥ ❜➡♥❣ ✵ $❤➻ ❜✐➳♥ ❝* ✤+
❤➛✉ ♥❤: ❦❤<♥❣ ①↔② 1❛ ❦❤✐ $❤@❝ ❤✐➺♥ ♣❤➨♣ $❤D ♠#$ ❧➛♥✳
✲ ◆❣✉②➯♥ ❧➼ ①→❝ +✉➜- ❧0♥✿ ▼#$ ❜✐➳♥ ❝* ❝+ ①→❝ .✉➜$ ❣➛♥ ❜➡♥❣ ✶ $❤➻ ❜✐➳♥ ❝* ✤+ ❤➛✉ ♥❤: .➩
①↔② 1❛ ❦❤✐ $❤@❝ ❤✐➺♥ ♣❤➨♣ $❤D✳

✶✳✸ ❚❤8♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤>♥❤

●K✐ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠#$ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ $O② P✳ ❚❛ ①➙② ❞@♥❣ ♠#$ $❤*♥❣ ❦➯ T =
T (X1 , X2 , ..., Xn ) ✈➔ .➩ .D ❞U♥❣ ♥+ ✤➸ ✤:❛ 1❛ W✉②➳$ ✤X♥❤ ❜→❝ ❜3 ❤❛② ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ ❣✐↔
$❤✉②➳$ H0 ✳ ▲[❝ ♥➔②✱ T ✤:]❝ ❣K✐ ❧➔ -❤1♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤7♥❤ ✭❤❛② -✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤7♥❤✮✳

❱a✐ α ∈ (0, 1) ❝❤♦ $1:a❝✱ $❛ ❝+ $❤➸ ①➙② ❞@♥❣ ♠✐➲♥ Wα .❛♦ ❝❤♦✿

P (T ∈ Wα |H0 ✤[♥❣) =α

▲[❝ ✤+✱ ♠✐➲♥ Wα ✤:]❝ ❣K✐ ❧➔ ♠✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜/ ✈0✐ ♠<❝ = ♥❣❤➽❛ α✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✹✴✸✽

✶✳✸ ❈→❝ ❜A5❝ 0✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤

❑❤✐ ❝❤♦ $1:a❝ ♠e❝ P ♥❣❤➽❛ α $❛ ❝+ $❤➸ .D ❞U♥❣ ❝→❝ ❜:a❝ ❣]✐ P .❛✉ ✤➙② ✤➸ $✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤
❣✐↔✐ ❜➔✐ $♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤X♥❤✿
✲ ❳→❝ ✤X♥❤ ❣✐↔ $❤✉②➳$ H0 , H1 ✈➔ ♣❤→$ ❜✐➸✉ ❜➔✐ $♦→♥✳
✲ ❈❤K♥ $❤*♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤X♥❤ T ✈➔ $➼♥❤ ❣✐→ $1X ❝j❛ ♥+ $1➯♥ ♠➝✉ ❞k ❧✐➺✉ $❤✉ ✤:]❝ ✭❦➼
❤✐➺✉ ❧➔ Ts ✮✳
✲ ❳→❝ ✤X♥❤ ♠✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜3 Wα ✈a✐ ♠e❝ P ♥❣❤➽❛ α ❝❤♦ $1:a❝✳
✲ ❑➳$ ❧✉➟♥✿ ◆➳✉ Ts ∈ Wα $❤➻ ❜→❝ ❜3 ❣✐↔ $❤✉②➳$ H0 ✳ ◆❣:]❝ ❧↕✐✱ $❛ ❝❤:❛ ❝+ ❝n .o ❜→❝
❜3 H0 ♥➯♥ $↕♠ $❤p✐ ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ ❣✐↔ $❤✉②➳$ ♥➔②✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✺✴✸✽

✶✳✹ ❙❛✐ ❧➛♠ ❦❤✐ ❦✐➸♠ ✤>♥❤

✲ ❙❛✐ ❧➛♠ ❧♦↕✐ ■✿ ❙❛✐ ❧➛♠ ♠➢❝ ♣❤↔✐ ❦❤✐ ❜→❝ ❜3 H0 ♥❤:♥❣ $1♦♥❣ ❦❤✐ $❤@❝ $➳ ❧➔ H0 ❧➔ ❣✐↔
$❤✉②➳$ ✤[♥❣✳ ❑➼ ❤✐➺✉✿ α✳
✲ ❙❛✐ ❧➛♠ ❧♦↕✐ ■■✿ ❙❛✐ ❧➛♠ ♠➢❝ ♣❤↔✐ ❦❤✐ ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H0 $1♦♥❣ ❦❤✐ $❤@❝ $➳ ❧➔ H0 ❧➔ ❣✐↔
$❤✉②➳$ .❛✐✳ ❑➼ ❤✐➺✉✿ β✳
❇↔♥❣ ❞:a✐ ✤➙② $u♥❣ ❤]♣ ❧↕✐ ❝→❝ $1:p♥❣ ❤]♣✿

❚❤@❝ $➳
H0 ✤[♥❣ H0 .❛✐
◗✉②➳$ ✤X♥❤

❇→❝ ❜3 H0 .❛✐ ❧➛♠ ❧♦↕✐ ■ W✉②➳$ ✤X♥❤ ✤[♥❣

❈❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H0 W✉②➳$ ✤X♥❤ ✤[♥❣ .❛✐ ❧➛♠ ❧♦↕✐ ■■

◆❤: ✈➟②✱

α = P (❜→❝ ❜3 H0 ⑤ H0 ✤[♥❣), β = P (❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H0 ⑤ H0 .❛✐)

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✻✴✸✽

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 ✷✳ ❑✐➸♠ ✤'♥❤ ❣✐↔ ,❤✉②➳, ✈➲ ❦➻ ✈4♥❣ ❝6❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤:✐ ❝❤✉➞♥

✷✳✶ ❑❤✐ ♣❤=>♥❣ ?❛✐ ✤➣ ❜✐➳,

❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝,❛ ♠/0 01♥❣ 0❤➸ ❝3 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤6✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ2 ) ✈9✐ ❦➻ ✈<♥❣ µ
❝❤=❛ ❜✐➳0 ✈➔ ♣❤=?♥❣ @❛✐ σ2 ✤➣ ❜✐➳0✳
• ❳➨0 ❜➔✐ 0♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤G♥❤ ❣✐↔ 0❤✉②➳0✿

H0 ✿ µ = µ 0 ,
(
(I)
H1 ✿ µ =
6 µ0 ,

0K♦♥❣ ✤3 µ0 ❧➔ ♠/0 @6 0❤M❝ ✤➣ ❝❤♦✳

✲ ●✐↔ @P K➡♥❣ H0 ✤R♥❣✱ 0❤➻
√
(X − µ0 ) n
Z= ∼ N (0, 1)
σ

✲ ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜V ✈9✐ ♠W❝ X ♥❣❤➽❛ α✿ Wα = (−∞; −zα/2 ] ∪ [zα/2 ; +∞)✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✼✴✸✽

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✽✴✸✽

• ✣6✐ ✈9✐ ❜➔✐ 0♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤G♥❤ ❣✐↔ 0❤✉②➳0✿

H0 ✿ µ = µ 0
(
(II)
H 1 ✿ µ > µ0 .

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜V H0 ❧➔ Wα = [zα ; +∞)

•✣6✐ ✈9✐ ❜➔✐ 0♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤G♥❤ ❣✐↔ 0❤✉②➳0✿
H0 ✿ µ = µ 0
(
(III)
H 1 ✿ µ < µ0 .

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜V H0 ❧➔ Wα = (−∞; −zα ]

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✾✴✸✽

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 ❇➔✐ #♦→♥ ■■ ❇➔✐ #♦→♥ ■■■

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✵✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞# ✷
◆❣✉#♥ ❝➜♣ ✤✐➺♥ ❝❤♦ ♠→② 0➼♥❤ ✤↕0 0✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❧➔ ✶✾ ✈♦❧0✳ ✣♦ ♥❣✉#♥ ❝➜♣ ✤✐➺♥ ❝<❛ ♠>0 ♠➝✉
✷✺ B↕❝ ♣✐♥ ✤CD❝ ❝❤E♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝<❛ ❤➣♥❣ B↔♥ ①✉➜0 ❆ ♥❣CJ✐ 0❛ 0➼♥❤ ✤CD❝ x = 19, 25
✈♦❧0✳ ●✐↔ BL ♥❣✉#♥ ❝➜♣ ✤✐➺♥ ♥➔② ❝M ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤O✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ ✈P✐ ✤> ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ σ = 0, 5 ✈♦❧0✳ ❱P✐
♠R❝ S ♥❣❤➽❛ α = 0, 05 ❤➣② ❦✐➸♠ ✤W♥❤ ❣✐↔ 0❤✉②➳0 ❣O❝ H0 ✿ µ = 19 ✭✈♦❧0✮ ✈P✐ ✤O✐ 0❤✉②➳0
H1 ✿ µ > 19 ✭✈♦❧0✮✱ 0]♦♥❣ ✤M µ ❧➔ ♥❣✉#♥ ❝➜♣ ✤✐➺♥ 0]✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝<❛ ❧♦↕✐ B↕❝ ♣✐♥ 0]➯♥✳
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳0 z0.1 = 1.282; z0.05 = 1.645; z0.025 = 1.96; z0.02 = 2.054, z0.01 = 2.326
●✐↔✐✳ ❇➔✐ #♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤,♥❤✿ (
H0 : µ = 19
H1 : µ > 19
❈→❝ 12 ✤➦❝ #45♥❣ ♠➝✉✿ n = 25; x̄ = 19, 25✳ √ √
(x̄ − µ0 ) n (19, 25 − 19) 25
●✐→ #4, ❝;❛ #❤2♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤,♥❤✿ z = = = 2, 5✳
σ 0, 5
▼?❝ @ ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 05 ⇒ zα = z0,05 = 1, 645✳
▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜D✿ Wα = [1, 645; +∞)✳
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ #❛ ❜→❝ ❜D ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# H0 ✈➔ ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H1 ✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✶✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞# ✸
❚]♦♥❣ ♥➠♠ 0]CP❝ ❦❤O✐ ❧CD♥❣ 0]✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝<❛ ❜c ①✉➜0 ❝❤✉#♥❣ d ♠>0 0]❛♥❣ 0]↕✐ ❧➔ ✸✽✵❦❣✳
◆➠♠ ♥❛② ♥❣CJ✐ 0❛ →♣ ❞i♥❣ 0❤L ♠>0 ❝❤➳ ✤> ➠♥ ♠P✐ ✈P✐ ❤② ✈E♥❣ ❧➔ ❜c B➩ 0➠♥❣ 0]E♥❣
♥❤❛♥❤ ❤k♥✳ ❙❛✉ 0❤J✐ ❣✐❛♥ →♣ ❞i♥❣ 0❤L✱ ♥❣CJ✐ 0❛ ❝❤E♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✺✵ ❝♦♥ ❜c ①✉➜0 ❝❤✉#♥❣
✤❡♠ ❝➙♥ ✈➔ 0➼♥❤ ✤CD❝ ❦❤O✐ ❧CD♥❣ 0]✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝<❛ ❝❤n♥❣ ❧➔ x = 390❦❣✳ ❱P✐ ♠R❝ S ♥❣❤➽❛
α = 0, 02 ❝M 0❤➸ ❝❤♦ ]➡♥❣ ❦❤O✐ ❧CD♥❣ 0]✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝<❛ ❜c ①✉➜0 ❝❤✉#♥❣ ✤➣ 0➠♥❣ ❧➯♥ ❦❤p♥❣❄
●✐↔ BL ]➡♥❣ ❦❤O✐ ❧CD♥❣ ❝<❛ ❜c ❝M ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤O✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ ✈P✐ ✤> ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ σ = 25, 2❦❣✳
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳0 z0.1 = 1.282; z0.05 = 1.645; z0.025 = 1.96; z0.02 = 2.054, z0.01 = 2.326
●✐↔✐✳ ●N✐ µ✭❦❣✮ ❧➔ ❦❤2✐ ❧5R♥❣ #4✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝;❛ ❜S ①✉➜# ❝❤✉U♥❣✳ ❚❤❡♦ ❣✐↔ #❤✐➳#✱ #❛ ❝Y ❜➔✐
#♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤,♥❤✿ (
H0 : µ = 380
H1 : µ > 380
√ √
(x̄ − µ0 ) n (390 − 380) 50
●✐→ #4, ❝;❛ #❤2♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤,♥❤✿ z = = = 2, 806✳
σ 25, 2
▼?❝ @ ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 02 ⇒ zα = z0,02 = 2, 054✳ ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜D✿ Wα = [2, 054; +∞)✳
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ #❛ ❜→❝ ❜D ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ ✈Z✐ ♠?❝ @ ♥❣❤➽❛ ✷✪ ❦❤2✐ ❧5R♥❣ #4✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤
❜S ①✉➜# ❝❤✉U♥❣ ✤➣ #➠♥❣ ❧➯♥✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✷✴✸✽
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 ❑❤→✐ ♥✐➺♠ ♣✲❣✐→ *+,
✲❣✐→ %&' %()♥❣ +♥❣ ✈-✐ ♠/% %❤1♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤'♥❤ ❧➔ ♠+❝ ①→❝ :✉➜% %❤➜♣ ♥❤➜% ✭✤(?❝ %➼♥❤
❞B❛ %&➯♥ ❣✐→ %&' %❤B❝ ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ❝E❛ %❤1♥❣ ❦➯ ♥➔②✮ ♠➔ %❛ ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ ❣✐↔ %❤✉②➳% H0 ✳
◗✉② %➢❝ ❦✐➸♠ ✤'♥❤✿
✲ ◆➳✉ ♣✲❣✐→ %&' ≤ α %❤➻ ❜→❝ ❜R ❣✐↔ %❤✉②➳% H0 ✳
✲ ◆➳✉ ♣✲❣✐→ %&' > α %❤➻ ❝❤(❛ ❝S ❝) :T ❜→❝ ❜R ❣✐↔ %❤✉②➳% H0 ✳
❑❤✐ ♠+❝ V ♥❣❤➽❛ α ❦❤X♥❣ ✤(?❝ ❝❤➾ &❛ %❤➻ %❛ %❤(Z♥❣ :♦ :→♥❤ ♥S ✈-✐ ♠+❝ ✺✪✳

✣1✐ ✈-✐ ✸ ❜➔✐ %♦→♥ T %&➯♥✿

❇➔✐ %♦→♥ ✭■✮ ✭■■✮ ✭■■■✮
♣✲❣✐→ %&' 2(1 − Φ(|z|)) 1 − Φ(z) Φ(z)

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✸✴✸✽

✷✳✷ ❑❤✐ ♣❤/0♥❣ 1❛✐ ❝❤/❛ ❜✐➳*

❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝E❛ ♠/% %d♥❣ %❤➸ ❝S ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤1✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ2 ) ✈-✐ ❦➻ ✈g♥❣ µ
❝❤(❛ ❜✐➳% ✈➔ ♣❤()♥❣ :❛✐ σ2 ❝❤(❛ ❜✐➳%✳
❳➨% ❜➔✐ %♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤'♥❤ ✈-✐ H0 ✿ µ = µ0 ✈➔ ✤1✐ %❤✉②➳% H1 : µ 6= µ0 (µ > µ0 , µ < µ0 )✳
❑❤✐ ❣✐↔ %❤✉②➳% H0 ✿ µ = µ0 ✤j♥❣✱ %❤1♥❣ ❦➯✿
X − µ0
T = √
S/ n

❝S ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤1✐ ❙%✉❞❡♥% n − 1 ❜➟❝ %B ❞♦✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✹✴✸✽

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✺✴✸✽

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 ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ∼ N (µ; σ2 ) ✈,✐ σ2 ❝❤.❛ ❜✐➳0✳
●✐↔ 0❤✉②➳0 ❣5❝ H0 ✿ µ = µ0
x − µ0 √
●✐→ 089 0❤5♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤9♥❤✿ t = n
s
✣5✐ 0❤✉②➳0 ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜A H0 ♣✲❣✐→ 089
H1 ✿ µ 6= µ0 (−∞; −tn−1;α/2 ] ∪ [tn−1;α/2 ; +∞) 2P (Tn−1 > |t|)
H 1 ✿ µ > µ0 [tn−1;α ; +∞) P (Tn−1 > t)
H 1 ✿ µ < µ0 (−∞; −tn−1;α ] P (Tn−1 < t)

❚8♦♥❣ 08.E♥❣ ❤F♣ n > 30✿ tn−1;α ≈ zα ✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✻✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞# ✹
❚✉"✐ $❤& $'✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝-❛ ♠0$ ❧♦↕✐ ❜4♥❣ ✤➧♥ ❞♦ ♥❤➔ ♠→② ❆ <↔♥ ①✉➜$ ❦❤✐ ❝❤A❛ ❝↔✐ $✐➳♥ ❦➽
$❤✉➟$ ❧➔ ✷✵✵✵ ❣✐G✳ ❙❛✉ $❤G✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❝↔✐ $✐➳♥ ❦➽ $❤✉➟$ ♥❣AG✐ $❛ ❝❤&♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✷✺ ❜4♥❣ ✤➧♥
❝❤♦ ❧➢♣ $❤O ♥❣❤✐➺♠✳ ❑➳$ R✉↔ $❤S❝ ♥❣❤✐➺♠ $❤✉ ✤AT❝ $✉"✐ $❤& $'✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ♠➝✉ x = 2102
❣✐G ✈➔ ✤0 ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ♠➝✉ s = 15 ❣✐G✳ ❱X✐ ♠Y❝ Z ♥❣❤➽❛ 0, 025 ❝4 $❤➸ ❦➳$ ❧✉➟♥ ✏<❛✉ ❦❤✐
❝↔✐ $✐➳♥ ❦➽ $❤✉➟$✱ $✉"✐ $❤& ❜4♥❣ ✤➧♥ ❝4 $➠♥❣ ❧➯♥✑ ❦❤`♥❣❄ ❇✐➳$ $✉"✐ $❤& ❜4♥❣ ✤➧♥ ❝4 ♣❤➙♥
♣❤d✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳$ t24;0,025 = 2, 063✳
●✐↔✐✳ ●G✐ µ✭❣✐E✮ ❧➔ 0✉L✐ 0❤G 08✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝N❛ ❧♦↕✐ ❜P♥❣ ✤➧♥ R❛✉ ❝↔✐ 0✐➳♥✳ ❚❛ ❝P ❜➔✐ 0♦→♥
❦✐➸♠ ✤9♥❤✿ (
H0 : µ = 2000
H1 : µ > 2000

✲ ❈→❝ R5 ✤➦❝ 08.♥❣ ♠➝✉✿ n = 25; x̄ = 2102; s = 15

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✼✴✸✽

✲ ❚❤5♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤9♥❤✿

√ √
(x̄ − µ0 ) n (2102 − 2000) 25
t= = = 34
s 15
✲ ▼T❝ U ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 025; tn−1;α = t24;0,025 = 2, 063
✲ ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜A✿ Wα = [2, 063; +∞)
❱➻ t ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ 0❛ ❜→❝ ❜A H0 ✈➔ ❝❤➜♣ ♥❤➟♥ H1 ✳ ❱➟②✱ R❛✉ ❝↔✐ 0✐➳♥ ❦[ 0❤✉➟0 0✉L✐ 0❤G ❜P♥❣
✤➧♥ ✤➣ 0➠♥❣ ❧➯♥✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✽✴✸✽

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 ❱➼ ❞# ✺
▼!" ①➼ ♥❣❤✐➺♣ ❝, ✺✵✵✵ ❝/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝1♥❣ 2↔♥ ①✉➜" ♠!" ❧♦↕✐ 2↔♥ ♣❤➞♠✳ ❚❤❡♦ ❞?✐ "❤@✐ ❣✐❛♥
❤♦➔♥ "❤➔♥❤ 2↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❝C❛ ✶✵✵ ❝/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥✱ "❛ ✤GH❝ ❜↔♥❣ 2J ❧✐➺✉ 2❛✉✿
❚❤@✐ ❣✐❛♥ ✭♣❤✮ ✷✽✲✸✵ ✸✵✲✸✷ ✸✷✲✸✹ ✸✹✲✸✻ ✸✻✲✸✽ ✸✽✲✹✵
❙J ❝/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ✺ ✶✺ ✷✺ ✸✵ ✷✵ ✺
❛✮ ❚➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➟② ✤J✐ ①Y♥❣ ❝❤♦ "❤@✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤♦➔♥ "❤➔♥❤ "Z✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✈\✐ ✤! "✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✵✪✳
❜✮ ❈/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝, "❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦ ♥➳✉ "❤@✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤♦➔♥ "❤➔♥❤ ✶ 2↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❞G\✐ ✸✷♣❤✳ ❱\✐
✤! "✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪✱ "➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ "✐♥ ❝➟② ✤J✐ ①Y♥❣ ❝❤♦ 2J ❝/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝, "❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦ ❝C❛ ①➼
♥❣❤✐➺♣✳
❝✮ ❳➼ ♥❣❤✐➺♣ d✉② ✤e♥❤ ✤e♥❤ ♠Y❝ ❤♦➔♥ "❤➔♥❤ "Z✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✶ 2↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❧➔ ✸✹ ♣❤f"✳ ❈, g
❦✐➳♥ ❝❤♦ Z➡♥❣ ✤e♥❤ ♠Y❝ ♥➔② ❝, ❤↕✐ ❝❤♦ ❝/♥❣ ♥❤➙♥✳ ❱\✐ ♠Y❝ g ♥❣❤➽❛ ✷✪ ❤➣② ♥❤➟♥ ①➨"
✈➲ g ❦✐➳♥ ✤,✳
❈❤♦ ❜✐➳" z0.1 = 1.282; z0.05 = 1.645; z0.025 = 1.96; z0.02 = 2.054, z0.01 = 2.326
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✶✾✴✸✽

●✐↔✐✳ ❛✳ ❉↕♥❣ &❤✉ ❣)♥✿

❚❤,✐ ❣✐❛♥ ✭♣❤✮ ✷✾ ✸✶ ✸✸ ✸✺ ✸✼ ✸✾
❙8 ❝:♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ✺ ✶✺ ✷✺ ✸✵ ✷✵ ✺

❈→❝ ?8 ✤➦❝ &BC♥❣ ♠➝✉✿ n = 100; x̄ = 34, 2; s = 2, 494

✣G &✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 9 ⇒ α = 0, 1; tn−1;α/2 = t99;0,05 ≈ z0,05 = 1, 645
❙❛✐ ?8✿ s 2, 494
ε = tn−1;α/2 √ = 1, 645 ∗ √ = 0, 41
n 100
❑❤♦↔♥❣ &✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ &❤,✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤♦➔♥ &❤➔♥❤ &B✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤✿

x̄ − ε < µ < x̄ + ε ⇔ 33, 79 < µ < 34, 61

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✵✴✸✽

❜✳ ●)✐ ❑ ❧➔ ?8 ❝:♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝R &❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦✳ ❚➾ ❧➺ ❝:♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝R &❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦✿ p = K/5000✳
❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉ ❝:♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝R &❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦✿

p̂ = k/n = (5 + 15)/100 = 0, 2

✣G &✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96

❙❛✐ ?8✿
r r
p̂(1 − p̂) 0, 2 ∗ 0, 8
ε = zα/2 = 1, 96 ∗ = 0, 0784
n 100
❑❤♦↔♥❣ &✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ &➾ ❧➺ ❝:♥❣ ♥❤➙♥ ❝R &❛② ♥❣❤➲ ❝❛♦✿

p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 1216 < p < 0, 2784

❙✉② B❛✿ 0, 1216 < K/5000 < 0, 2784 ⇔ 608 < K < 1392✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✶✴✸✽

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 ❝✳ ●#✐ µ ✭♣❤✮ ❧➔ +❤,✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤♦➔♥ +❤➔♥❤ +1✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✶ 6↔♥ ♣❤➙♠ ❝:❛ ❝;♥❣ ♥❤➙♥✳ ❚❛ ❝= ❜➔✐
+♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤B♥❤✿ (
H0 : µ = 34
H1 : µ > 34

✲ ❚❤E♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤B♥❤✿

√ √
(x̄ − µ0 ) n (34, 2 − 34) 100
t= = = 0, 802
s 2, 494

✲ ▼H❝ I ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 02; tn−1;α = t99;0,02 ≈ z0,02 = 2, 054

✲ ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜L✿ Wα = [2, 054; +∞)
❱➻ t ∈
/ Wα ♥➯♥ +❛ ❝❤N❛ ❝= ❝O 6P ❜→❝ ❜L H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ ✤B♥❤ ♠H❝ T✉② ✤B♥❤ ❦❤;♥❣ ❣➙② ❤↕✐ ❝❤♦
❝;♥❣ ♥❤➙♥✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✷✴✸✽

✸✳ ❙♦ $→♥❤ ❤❛✐ ❦+ ✈-♥❣ ❝0❛ ❤❛✐ ♠➝✉ ✤5❝ ❧➟♣

❈❤♦ X ✈➔ Y ❜✐➳♥ 6E ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝:❛ ❤❛✐ +Z♥❣ +❤➸ ✤[❝ ❧➟♣ ♥❤❛✉ ✈➔ ❧➛♥ ❧N]+ ❝= ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤E✐
❝❤✉➞♥ N (µx ; σx2 ) ✈➔ N (µy ; σy2 ) ✈_✐ ♣❤NO♥❣ 6❛✐ σx2 , σy2 ❝❤N❛ ❜✐➳+✳
❳➨+ ❜➔✐ +♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤B♥❤ ✈_✐
H 0 : µ x − µ y = ∆0
✈➔ ✤E✐ +❤✉②➳+ H1 : µx − µy 6= ∆0 (µx − µy > ∆0 , µx − µy < ∆0 )✳
●✐↔ 6b (x1 , ..., xm ) ✈➔ (y1 , ..., yn ) ❧➔ ❝→❝ ♠➝✉ +❤✉ ✤N]❝ +c X ✈➔ Y +NO♥❣ H♥❣✳
❈❤➾ ①➨= =>?@♥❣ ❤A♣ ❦❤✐ ❝B ♠➝✉ ❧C♥ ✭♠✱♥❃✸✵✮✳
❑❤✐ ✤=✱ →♣ ❞f♥❣ ✣B♥❤ ❧➼ ❣✐_✐ ❤↕♥ +1✉♥❣ +➙♠ +❛ ❝=✿

(X − Y ) − (µx − µy )
Z= r
Sx2 Sy2
+
m n

❝= ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤E✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤E✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ +➢❝ N (0; 1)✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✸✴✸✽

X ∼ N (µx ; σx2 ) ✈➔ Y ∼ N (µy ; σy2 ) +1♦♥❣ ✤= σx2 ✈➔ σy2 ✤➲✉ ❝❤N❛ ❜✐➳+❀ m > 30 ✈➔
n > 30✳
●✐↔ +❤✉②➳+ +❤E♥❣ ❦➯ H0 ✿ µx − µy = ∆0
x − y − ∆0
●✐→ +1B +❤E♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤B♥❤✿ z = r
s2x s2y
+
m n

✣E✐ +❤✉②➳+ ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜L H0 ♣✲❣✐→ +1B

H1 ✿ µx − µy 6= ∆0 (−∞; −zα/2 ] ∪ [zα/2 ; +∞) 2(1 − Φ(|z|))
H1 ✿ µ x − µ y > ∆ 0 [zα ; +∞) 1 − Φ(z)
H1 ✿ µ x − µ y < ∆ 0 (−∞; −zα ] Φ(z)

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✹✴✸✽

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 ◆❤➟♥ ①➨&✿ ❑❤✐ ∆0 = 0✱ ❝→❝ ❜➔✐ (♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤/♥❤ (0➯♥ (❤23♥❣ ✤25❝ ✈✐➳( ❧↕✐ ❞2;✐ ❞↕♥❣✿
(
H0 : µ x = µ y
(I)
H1 : µx 6= µy
(
H0 : µ x = µ y
(II)
H1 : µ x < µy
(
H0 : µ x = µ y
(III)
H1 : µ x > µy

❚❤>♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤/♥❤ (0? (❤➔♥❤✿

x−y
z=r
s2x s2y
+
m n

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✺✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞+ ✻
◆❣"#✐ %❛ ❝➙♥ %*➫ ,- ,✐♥❤ / ❤❛✐ ❦❤✉ ✈3❝ %❤➔♥❤ %❤5 ✈➔ ♥6♥❣ %❤6♥✱ ❦➳% 9✉↔ %❤✉ ✤"<❝✿
❑❤✉ ✈3❝ ❙@ %*➫ ❚*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ♠➝✉ F❤"-♥❣ ,❛✐ ♠➝✉
◆6♥❣ %❤6♥ m = 60 x = 3, 0 ❦❣ s2x = 0, 4 ❦❣2
❚❤➔♥❤ %❤5 n = 50 y = 3, 1 ❦❣ s2y = 0, 5 ❦❣2
❱H✐ ♠I❝ J ♥❣❤➽❛ 0, 05 ❝L %❤➸ ❝♦✐ ❦❤@✐ ❧"<♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝P❛ %*➫ ,- ,✐♥❤ / ❤❛✐ ❦❤✉ ✈3❝
❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❦❤6♥❣❄ ❇✐➳% ❦❤@✐ ❧"<♥❣ %*➫ ,- ,✐♥❤ / ❤❛✐ ❦❤✉ ✈3❝ ❝L ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤@✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ❈❤♦
❜✐➳% z0.025 = 1.96
●✐↔✐✳ ●A✐ µx, µy ✭❦❣✮ ❧➔ ❦❤>✐ ❧25♥❣((0✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝F❛ (0➫ IJ I✐♥❤ ? ♥K♥❣ (❤K♥ ✈➔ (❤➔♥❤ (❤/✳
❚❛ ❝M ❜➔✐ (♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤/♥❤✿ H0 : µ x = µ y
H1 : µx 6= µy
❚❤>♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤/♥❤✿ x̄ − ȳ 3, 0 − 3, 1
z=q =p = −0, 774
s2x /m + s2y /n 0, 4/60 + 0, 5/50
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✻✴✸✽

▼O❝ P ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 05; zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96✳

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜S✿ Wα = (−∞; −1, 96] ∪ [1, 96; +∞)
❱➻ z ∈/ Wα ♥➯♥ (❛ ❝❤2❛ ❝M ❝J I? ❜→❝ ❜S ❣✐↔ (❤✉②➳( H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ ❦❤K♥❣ ❝M IX ❦❤→❝ ❜✐➺( ✈➲
❦❤>✐ ❧25♥❣ (0✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝F❛ (0➫ IJ I✐♥❤ ? ❤❛✐ ✈Z♥❣ (0➯♥✳
❱➼ ❞+ ✼
◆❣"#✐ %❛ %✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤ ♠X% ❝✉X❝ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝I✉ ✤➸ ,♦ ,→♥❤ ♠I❝ ❧"-♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝P❛ ♣❤Z ♥[
,♦ ✈H✐ ♠I❝ ❧"<♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝P❛ ♥❛♠ ❣✐H✐ %*♦♥❣ ♠X% ❝6♥❣ %② ❧H♥✳ ▼X% ♠➝✉ ❣^♠ ✶✵✵ ♣❤Z
♥[ ❝L ♠I❝ ❧"-♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✼✱✷✸ ✤6❧❛✴❣✐# ✈H✐ ✤X ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ✶✱✻✹ ✤6❧❛✴❣✐#✳ ▼X% ♠➝✉
❣^♠ ✼✺ ♥❛♠ ❣✐H✐ ❝L ♠I❝ ❧"<♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❧➔ ✽✱✵✻ ✤6❧❛✴❣✐# ✈H✐ ✤X ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❧➔ ✶✱✽✺
✤6❧❛✴❣✐#✳ ❱H✐ ♠I❝ J ♥❣❤➽❛ ✶✪ ,@ ❧✐➺✉ ♥➔② ❝L ❝❤I♥❣ ♠✐♥❤ ✤"<❝ ♠I❝ ❧"-♥❣ %*✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤
❝P❛ ♣❤Z ♥[ %*♦♥❣ ❝6♥❣ %② ❧➔ %❤➜♣ ❤-♥ ♥❛♠ ❣✐H✐ ❤❛② ❦❤6♥❣ ❄ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳% z0,01 = 2, 326✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✼✴✸✽

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 ●✐↔✐✳ ●!✐ µx , µy ✭✤%❧❛✴❣✐*✮ ❧➔ ♠.❝ ❧01♥❣ 34✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝9❛ ♥: ✈➔ ♥❛♠ ❣✐<✐✳ ❚❛ ❝? ❜➔✐ 3♦→♥
❦✐➸♠ ✤D♥❤✿ (
H0 : µ x = µ y
H1 : µ x < µy

❚❤F♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤D♥❤✿

x̄ − ȳ 7, 23 − 8, 06
z=q =p = −3, 08
s2x /m + s2y /n 1, 642 /100 + 1, 852 /75

▼.❝ I ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 01; zα = z0,01 = 2, 326✳

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜L✿ Wα = (−∞; −2, 326]
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ 3❛ ❜→❝ ❜L ❣✐↔ 3❤✉②➳3 H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ ❧01♥❣ 34✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝9❛ ♥: ❣✐<✐ 3❤➜♣ ❤1♥ U♦
✈<✐ ♥❛♠ ❣✐<✐ 34♦♥❣ ❝%♥❣ 3②✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✽✴✸✽

✹✳ ❑✐➸♠ ✤)♥❤ ❣✐↔ -❤✉②➳- ✈➲ -➾ ❧➺

❈❤♦ 3➼♥❤ ❝❤➜3 A ❝? 3➾ ❧➺ ❧➔ p ✭❝❤0❛ ❜✐➳3✮ 34♦♥❣ 3Z♥❣ 3❤➸✳ ❳➨3 ❜➔✐ 3♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤D♥❤ ❣✐↔
3❤✉②➳3✿
H 0 : p = p0
✈➔ ✤F✐ 3❤✉②➳3 H1 : p 6= p0 (p > p0 , p < p0 )✳
❈❤!♥ ♠]3 ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❦➼❝❤ 3❤0<❝ n✱ ✤➦3
1, ♣❤➛♥ 3a i ❝? 3➼♥❤ ❝❤➜3 ❆
(
Xi =
0, ♣❤➛♥ 3a i ❦❤%♥❣ ❝? 3➼♥❤ ❝❤➜3 ❆

X1 + X2 + ... + Xn
✈➔ P̂ = ✲ 3➾ ❧➺ ♣❤➛♥ 3a ❝? 3➼♥❤ ❝❤➜3 A✳
n
❑❤✐ H0 ✤%♥❣✱ ✈*✐ n ✤+ ❧*♥✱ -❤❡♦ ✣1♥❤ ❧➼ ❣✐*✐ ❤↕♥ -4✉♥❣ -➙♠✿

P̂ − p0
Z=p
p0 (1 − p0 )/n

❝: ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤<✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤<✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ -➢❝ N (0; 1)✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✾✴✸✽

❈❤♦ p̂ = k/n ❧➔ ♠D- E*❝ ❧EF♥❣ ❝+❛ -✛ ❧➺ p -J ♠D- ♠➝✉ ❦➼❝❤ -❤E*❝ n✳
●✐↔ -❤✉②➳- ❣<❝ H 0 ✿ p = p0 √
(p̂ − p0 ) n
●✐→ -41 -❤<♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤1♥❤✿ z=p
p0 (1 − p0 )

✣<✐ -❤✉②➳- ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜W H0 ♣✲❣✐→ -41

H1 : p 6= p0 (−∞; −zα/2 ] ∪ [zα/2 ; +∞) 2(1 − Φ(|z|))

H1 ✿ p > p0 [zα ; +∞) 1 − Φ(z)
H1 ✿ p < p0 (−∞; −zα ] Φ(z)

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✵✴✸✽

CuuDuongThanCong.com https://fb.com/tailieudientucntt
 ❱➼ ❞# ✽
●✐→♠ ✤%❝ ♠'( ❝)♥❣ (② (✉②➯♥ ❜% ✾✵✪ 3↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❝8❛ ❝)♥❣ (② ✤↕( (✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ ;✉%❝ ❣✐❛✳
▼'( ❝)♥❣ (② ❦✐➸♠ ✤@♥❤ ✤'❝ ❧➟♣ ✤➣ (✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤ ❦✐➸♠ (F❛ ✷✵✵ 3↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❝8❛ ❝)♥❣ (② ✤H (❤➻
(❤➜② ❝H ✶✻✽ 3↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤↕( ②➯✉ ❝➛✉✳ ❱P✐ ♠Q❝ R ♥❣❤➽❛ α = 0, 1 ❝H (❤➸ ❝❤♦ F➡♥❣ (✛ ❧➺ 3↔♥
♣❤➞♠ ✤↕( (✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ ;✉%❝ ❣✐❛ (❤➜♣ ❤X♥ ✾✵✪ ❦❤)♥❣❄ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳( z0,1 = 1, 282✳
●✐↔✐✳ ●!✐ p ❧➔ %➾ ❧➺ (↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤↕% %✐➯✉
( ❝❤✉➞♥ 4✉5❝ ❣✐❛ ❝8❛ ❝9♥❣ %②✳ ❇➔✐ %♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤✿
H0 : p = 0, 9
H1 : p < 0, 9

❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂ = k/n = 168/200 = 0, 84

❚❤5♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤✿ (p̂ − p0 )√n √
(0, 84 − 0, 9) 200
z=p = √ = −2, 83
p0 (1 − p0 ) 0, 9 ∗ 0, 1

▼F❝ G ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 1 ⇒ zα = z0.1 = 1.282✳

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜K✿ Wα = (−∞; −1, 282]✳
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ ❜→❝ ❜K H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ %✛ ❧➺ (↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤↕% %✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ 4✉5❝ ❣✐❛ %❤➜♣ ❤R♥ ✾✵✪✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✶✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞# ✾
▼'( ❦❤✉ ✈\❝ ❝H ✶✵✵✵✵ ❤' ❣✐❛ ✤➻♥❤ 3✐♥❤ 3%♥❣ ✈➔ ❝→❝ ❤' ] ✤➙② ❝❤➾ 3` ❞b♥❣ ❣❛ ❝8❛ ✷ ❝)♥❣
(② ❆ ✈➔ ❇✳ ✣✐➲✉ (F❛ ✽✵✵ ❤' (❤➻ ❝H ✻✵✵ ❤' ❞g♥❣ ❣❛✱ (F♦♥❣ ✤H ✸✻✵ ❤' ❞g♥❣ ❣❛ ❝8❛ ❝)♥❣
(② ❆✳
❛✮ ❱P✐ ✤' (✐♥ ❝➟② ✾✺✪✱ (➻♠ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ (✐♥ ❝➟② ✤%✐ ①Q♥❣ ❝❤♦ 3% ❧mn♥❣ ❤' ❞g♥❣ ❣❛ ] ❦❤✉ ✈\❝
♥➔②✳
❜✮ ❈H R ❦✐➳♥ ❝❤♦ F➡♥❣ ❣❛ ❝8❛ ❝)♥❣ (② ❆ ✤mn❝ ❝→❝ ❤' (❤➼❝❤ ❞g♥❣ ❤X♥✳ ❱P✐ ♠Q❝ R ♥❣❤➽❛
✷✪ ❤➣② ♥❤➟♥ ①➨( ✈➲ R ❦✐➳♥ ➜②✳
●✐↔✐✳ ❛✳ ●!✐ ❑ ❧➔ (5 ❧WX♥❣ ❤Y ❞[♥❣ ❣❛ \ ❦❤✉ ✈^❝ ♥➔②✳ ❚❛ ❝_ %➾ ❧➺ ❤Y ❞[♥❣ ❣❛✿ p = K/10000✳
❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂ = k/n = 600/800 = 0, 75✳
✣Y %✐♥ ❝➟②✿ 1 − α = 0, 95 ⇒ α = 0, 05; zα/2 = z0,025 = 1, 96✳
❙❛✐ (5✿
r r
p̂(1 − p̂) 0, 75 ∗ 0, 25
ε = zα/2 = 1, 96 ∗ = 0, 03
n 800
❑❤♦↔♥❣ %✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤♦ %➾ ❧➺ ❤Y ❞[♥❣ ❣❛✿ p̂ − ε < p < p̂ + ε ⇔ 0, 72 < p < 0, 78
❙✉② b❛✿ 0, 72 < K/10000 < 0, 78 ⇔ 7200 < K < 7500✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✷✴✸✽

❜✳ ●!✐ p ❧➔ %➾ ❧➺ ❤Y ❞[♥❣ ❣❛ ❝8❛ ❝9♥❣ %② ❆✳ ❇➔✐ %♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤✿

(
H0 : p = 0, 5
H1 : p > 0, 5

❚➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂ = k/n = 360/600 = 0, 6

●✐→ %bA ❝8❛ %❤5♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤✿
√ √
(p̂ − p0 ) n (0, 6 − 0, 5) 600
z=p = √ = 4, 9
p0 (1 − p0 ) 0, 5 ∗ 0, 5

▼F❝ G ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 02 ⇒ zα = z0.02 = 2, 054✳

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜K✿ Wα = [2, 054; +∞)✳
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ ❜→❝ ❜K H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ (↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❣❛ ❝8❛ ❝9♥❣ %② ❆ ✤WX❝ W❛ %❤➼❝❤ ❤R♥✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✸✴✸✽

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 ✺✳ ❙♦ $→♥❤ ❤❛✐ *➾ ❧➺
❳➨" "➼♥❤ ❝❤➜" A ❝( "➾ ❧➺ ❧➔ p1 ✈➔ p2 ❝❤.❛ ❜✐➳" "3♦♥❣ ❤❛✐ "6♥❣ "❤➸ ✤9❝ ❧➟♣ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❳➨" ❜➔✐
"♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤ ✈B✐ ❣✐↔ "❤✉②➳" ❣E❝✿
H 0 : p1 = p 2

✈➔ ✤E✐ "❤✉②➳" H1 : p1 6= p2 (p1 > p2 , p1 < p2 )✳

●✐↔ HI p̂1 = k1 /n1 ✈➔ p̂2 = k2 /n2 ❧➛♥ ❧.K" ❧➔ .B❝ ❧.K♥❣ ❝L❛ p1 ✈➔ p2 "M ❤❛✐ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉
♥❤✐➯♥ ✤9❝ ❧➟♣ ❦➼❝❤ "❤.B❝ n1 ✈➔ n2 ".P♥❣ Q♥❣✳
❑❤✐ ❣✐↔ "❤✉②➳" H0 ✤S♥❣✱ "❤E♥❣ ❦➯
p̂1 − p̂2 k1 + k2
Z=s ✈B✐ p̂ =

1 1
 n1 + n2
p̂(1 − p̂) +
n1 n 2

❝( ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤E✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤E✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ "➢❝ N (0, 1)✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✹✴✸✽

●✐↔ HI p̂1 = k1 /n1 ✈➔ p̂2 = k2 /n2 ❧➛♥ ❧.K" ❧➔ .B❝ ❧.K♥❣ ❝L❛ p1 ✈➔ p2 "M ❤❛✐ ♠➝✉
♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✤9❝ ❧➟♣✳
✲ ●✐↔ "❤✉②➳" ❣E❝ H0 ✿ p1 = p2
✲ ●✐→ "3A "❤E♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤A♥❤✿
p̂1 − p̂2 k1 + k2
z=s ✈B✐ p̂ =

1 1
 n1 + n2
p̂(1 − p̂) +
n1 n 2

✣E✐ "❤✉②➳" ▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜] H0 ♣✲❣✐→ "3A

H 1 : p1 =
6 p2 (−∞; −zα/2 ] ∪ [zα/2 ; +∞) 2(1 − Φ(|z|))
H1 : p1 > p2 [zα ; +∞) 1 − Φ(z)
H1 : p1 < p2 (−∞; −zα ] Φ(z)

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✺✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞1 ✶✵
❑✐➸♠ $%❛ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝→❝ /↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❝3♥❣ ❧♦↕✐ ❞♦ ❤❛✐ ♥❤➔ ♠→② /↔♥ ①✉➜$ $❤✉ ✤=>❝ ❞? ❧✐➺✉✿
◆❤➔ ♠→② ❙D /↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤=>❝ ❦✐➸♠ $%❛ ❙D ♣❤➳ ♣❤➞♠
❆ ✶✵✵✵ ✷✺
❇ ✾✻✵ ✸✵
❱Q✐ ♠R❝ S ♥❣❤➽❛ α = 0, 05 ❝U $❤➸ ❝♦✐ $✛ ❧➺ ♣❤➳ ♣❤➞♠ ❝W❛ ❤❛✐ ♥❤➔ ♠→② $%➯♥ ❜➡♥❣ ♥❤❛✉
❦❤Z♥❣❄ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳$ z0.025 = 1.96
●✐↔✐✳ ●^✐ p1 , p2 ❧➔ "➾ ❧➺ ♣❤➳ ♣❤➞♠ ❝L❛ ♥❤➔ ♠→② ❆✱ ❇ ".P♥❣ Q♥❣✳ ❚❛ ❝( ❜➔✐ "♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠
✤A♥❤✿ (
H 0 : p1 = p 2
H1 : p1 6= p2

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✻✴✸✽

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 ❈→❝ #➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿
p̂1 = k1 /n1 = 25/1000 = 0, 025; p̂2 = k2 /n2 = 30/960 = 0, 03125

p̂ = (k1 + k2 )/(n1 + n2 ) = (25 + 30)/(1000 + 960) = 0, 028

●✐→ #-. ❝/❛ #❤2♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤.♥❤✿
p̂1 − p̂2 0, 025 − 0, 03125
z=s =p = −0, 838
0, 028 ∗ (1 − 0, 028)(1/1000 + 1/960)

1 1
p̂(1 − p̂) +
n1 n 2

▼:❝ ; ♥❣❤➽❛✿ α = 0, 05 ⇒ zα/2 = z0.025 = 1, 96✳

▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜@✿ Wα = (−∞; 1, 96] ∪ [1, 96; +∞)✳
❱➻ z ∈/ Wα ♥➯♥ ❝❤C❛ ❝D ❝E FG ❜→❝ ❜@ H0 ✳ ❱➟②✱ #➾ ❧➺ ♣❤➳ ♣❤➞♠ ❝/❛ ❤❛✐ ♥❤➔ ♠→② ❦❤O♥❣
❝D FP ❦❤→❝ ❜✐➺#✳

❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✼✴✸✽

❱➼ ❞# ✶✶
❈!♥❣ $② ♥&'❝ ❣✐↔✐ ❦❤→$ ✤❛♥❣ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝1✉ ✈✐➺❝ ✤&❛ ✈➔♦ ♠8$ ❝!♥❣ $❤1❝ ♠'✐ ✤➸ ❝↔✐ $✐➳♥ ;↔♥
♣❤➞♠ ❝>❛ ♠➻♥❤✳ ❱'✐ ❝!♥❣ $❤1❝ ❝B ❦❤✐ ❝❤♦ ✺✵✵ ♥❣&E✐ ❞G♥❣ $❤H $❤➻ ❝I ✶✷✵ ♥❣&E✐ &❛ $❤➼❝❤
♥I✳ ❱'✐ ❝!♥❣ $❤1❝ ♠'✐ ❦❤✐ ❝❤♦ ✶✵✵✵ ♥❣&E✐ ❦❤→❝ ❞G♥❣ $❤➻ ❝I ✸✵✵ ♥❣&E✐ ❜↔♦ &❛ $❤➼❝❤
❤&O♥❣ ✈P ♥➔②✳ ❱'✐ ♠1❝ Q ♥❣❤➽❛ ✷✪ ❤➣② ❦✐➸♠ ✤P♥❤ ①❡♠ ❝!♥❣ $❤1❝ ♠'✐ ✤&❛ ✈➔♦ ❝I ❧➔♠
$➠♥❣ $➾ ❧➺ ♥❣&E✐ &❛ $❤➼❝❤ $❤1❝ ✉Z♥❣ ❝>❛ ❝!♥❣ $② ❤❛② ❦❤!♥❣ ❄ ❈❤♦ ❜✐➳$ z0,02 = 2, 054✳

●✐↔✐✳ ●Q✐ p1 , p2 ❧➔ #➾ ❧➺ ♥❣CR✐ C❛ #❤➼❝❤ ♥CT❝ ✉2♥❣ ✈T✐ ❝O♥❣ #❤:❝ ❝V ✈➔ ♠T✐✳ ❚❛ ❝D ❜➔✐
#♦→♥ ❦✐➸♠ ✤.♥❤✿ (
H 0 : p1 = p 2
H1 : p1 < p2
❈→❝ #➾ ❧➺ ♠➝✉✿ p̂1 = 0, 24; p̂2 = 0, 3; p̂ = 0, 28✳
●✐→ #-. #❤2♥❣ ❦➯ ❦✐➸♠ ✤.♥❤✿ z = −2, 39
▼✐➲♥ ❜→❝ ❜@✿ Wα = (−∞; −2, 054]✳
❱➻ z ∈ Wα ♥➯♥ ❜→❝ ❜@ ❣✐↔ #❤✉②➳# H0 ✳
❱➟②✱ ❝O♥❣ #❤:❝ ♠T✐ ✤C❛ ✈➔♦ ✤➣ ❧➔♠ #➠♥❣ #➾ ❧➺ ♥❣CR✐ C❛ #❤➼❝❤ #❤:❝ ✉2♥❣ ❝/❛ ❝O♥❣ #②✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✸✽✴✸✽

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