Course: CT4801 Date: 26 January 2005

Name: Transportation & Spatial Modeling Time: 14h00 – 17h00

For this exam you are allowed to use a pen, paper, simple calculator, and a formula
sheet. Books and lecture notes cannot be used during the exam.

The exam consists of 6 questions for which in total 100 points can be gained. It is
allowed to answer the questions in Dutch.

Question 1: The trip generation can be computed using different models, such as
[11 points] regression models, cross-classifications models, and binary logit
models. They can be formulated on a zonal, household, or individual
level.

(a) Suppose we would like to compute the trip productions based on a

regression model. Give three examples of variables on a household
level that could be used.

[3 points]
- household income
- household size
- car ownership
- … (multiple answers may be correct)

(b) Give one advantage and one disadvantage of using the cross-
classification model compared to the regression model.

[3 points]
Advantage:
- no need to assume a linear form
Disadvantage:
- each cell in the cross-classification needs a minimum amount of
observations, which may be difficult.
(multiple answers may be correct)

In a binary logit model, the trip generation is determined by

sequentially computing the probability of making additional trips.
Suppose that the binary logit model is applied 4 times successively to
compute the probability for an individual of making additional trips,
given by the following numbers:

• The probability of a person to make one or more trips is 90%.

• For people who decide to make one or more trips, the probability of
making one trip is 50% (such that the probability of making two or
more trips is 50%).
• For people who decide to make two or more trips, the probability of
making two trips is 80% (such that the probability of making three
or more trips is 20%).
• For people who decide to make three or more trips, the probability
of making three trips is 100% (such that the probability of making 4

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 or more trips is 0%).

(c) Determine the average number of trips made by an individual using

the outcomes of the binary logit model.

[5 points]
Probability of making no trips: P(0) = 0.1
Probability of making 1 trip:
P(1) = P(1+) * P(1) = 0.9 * 0.5 = 0.45
Probability of making 2 trips:
P(2) = P(2+) * P(2) = (0.9 * 0.5) * 0.8 = 0.36
Probability of making 3 trips:
P(3) = P(3+) * P(3) = (0.9 * 0.5 * 0.2) * 1 = 0.09

Average number of trips being made =

0 * P(0) + 1 * P(1) + 2 * P(2) + 3 * P(3) = 1.44 trips

Question 2: The mode choice can be determined sequentially or simultaneously

[9 points] with the destination choice. Consider a specific origin-destination (OD)
pair. Suppose that the travel time by car for that OD pair is 6 minutes,
and the travel time by bus is 10 minutes.

(a) What is the car share when we apply a sequential trip distribution -
modal split model using a logit model with scale parameter of 0.2?

[4 points]
Vcar = -6
Vbus = -10
Pcar = exp(-0.2*6)/(exp(-0.2*6)+exp(-0.2*10))*100% =69%

(b) What is the car share when we apply a simultaneous trip

distribution - modal split, assuming the following mode-specific
exponential distribution functions f m (cm ) = α m exp(−0.1cm ), where
cm is the travel time for mode m (= car, bus), and α car = 5 and
α bus = 3 are mode-specific parameters.

[5 points]
The trips per mode from simultaneous trip distribution – modal split
based on the gravity model are determined by
Tijm = ai b j Pi Aj f m (cijm )
The ratio between car and bus trips remains the same when performing
the Gauss-Seidel scaling. Therefore,
Pcar = f car (ccar ) /( f car (ccar ) + f bus (cbus )) *100%
=5*exp(-0.1*6)/(5*exp(-0.1*6)+3*exp(-0.1*10))*100%=71.3%

Question 3: Consider the transportation network below, consisting of 9 nodes and

[22 points] 12 links (accessible in both directions) with corresponding impedances.
Three nodes (A, B, and C) are origin nodes as well as destination nodes

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for which there exists production and attraction of trips. Assume that
all intrazonal impedances are equal to one.
2 2
A B

2 2 3

2 1

1 1 4

2 1
C

The trip production and attraction for all origin/destination nodes can
be computed from the zonal data given in the table below. Outcomes of
a survey have indicated that the average production of trips per zone is
0.6 per resident, and that the average attraction of trips per zone is 0.8
per job. Regarding the data, the number of residents is measured with a
higher accuracy than the number of jobs in a zone.

Zone Number of residents Number of jobs

A 400 250
B 200 250
C 500 250

(a) Determine the impedance matrix between all origin-destination

pairs.

[2 points]
⎡1 4 6⎤
⎢ 4 1 6⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢⎣ 6 6 1 ⎥⎦

(b) Formulate the doubly constrained gravity model for trip distribution
and define its variables and parameters.

[3 points]
Tij = ai b j Pi Aj Fij (cij )
where

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Tij = number of trips from i to j
ai = scaling factor for origin zone i
b j = scaling factor for destination zone j
Pi = number of trips produced by zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted by zone j
Fij = accessibility of zone j from zone i
cij = impedance from zone i to zone j
The accessibility depends on the impedance between zones i and j.

(c) Assume that the distribution function is given by f (cij ) = 1/ cij ,

where cij is the impedance from zone i to zone j. Determine the trip
distribution based on the doubly constrained gravity model (limit
yourself to two iterations only).

[7 points]
Production: [0.6·400, 0.6·200, 0.6·500] = [240, 120, 300]
Attraction: [0.8·250, 0.8·250, 0.8·250] = [200, 200, 200]
The total production (240+120+300=660) is larger than the total
attraction (200+200+200=600). Since the productions are assumed to
be more accurate, we balance towards the productions such that the
attraction becomes [220, 220, 220]. We initialize the trip matrix with
values from the trip distribution function corresponding to the shortest
path matrix.

1 1/4 1/6 240

1/4 1 1/6 120
1/6 1/6 1 300
220 220 220 660

1st iteration, scaling towards productions:

169.4 42.4 28.2 240
21.2 84.7 14.1 120
37.5 37.5 225 300
220 220 220 660

1st iteration scaling towards attractions:

163.4 56.6 23.2 240
20.4 113.2 11.6 120
36.2 50.1 185.1 300
220 220 220 660

Suppose that the trip distribution function is unknown, but one has
observations regarding the trip length (frequency) distribution as
indicated in the following graph.

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 percentage
of the trips

50%

30%
20%

1-3 3-5 5-7 impedance

(d) What is the difference between a trip distribution function and the
observed trip length distribution?

[3 points]
A trip distribution function describes the willingness to make a trip
given a certain impedance (like trip length). It describes behavior and is
typically network independent. The observed trip length distribution
describes the actual trips people have made, given a certain network.

(e) Using the Poisson estimator, give an estimation of the distribution

function (only perform one iteration).

[7 points]
We know how many trips are made for each trip length, but we do not
know the trip distribution function in order to compute the trip matrix.
We initialize the trip distribution values (i.e. accessibilities) with ones:
1 1 1 240
1 1 1 120
1 1 1 300
220 220 220 660

1st iteration, scaling to productions:

80 80 80 240
40 40 40 120
100 100 100 300
220 220 220 660
Note that we do not have to scale towards the attractions, as the values
already add up to the correct attractions.

Now we have to scale the trip distribution values. This can be done by
comparing the modeled trip length distribution with the observed trip
length distribution:

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 Modeled:
Distance 1-3: 80 + 40 + 100 = 220
Distance 3-5: 80 + 40 = 120
Distance 5-7: 80+40+100+100 = 320

Observed:
Distance1-3: 50% van 660 = 330
Distance 3-5: 20% van 660 = 132
Distance 5-7: 30% van 660 = 198

Scaling factors for the trip distribution function:

Distance 1-3: 330/220 = 1.5
Distance 3-5: 132/120 = 1.1
Distance 5-7: 198/320 = 0.6
There are the estimates of the trip distribution function after 1 iteration.

Question 4: Consider the transportation network below, consisting of three

[25 points] alternative routes from A to B.

t1

A t2 B

t3

The travel times per alternative (in minutes), given by ti (i=1,2,3),

depend on the car flows qi (i=1,2,3), and are given by the following
travel time functions:

t1 (q1 ) = 8 + 2q1
t2 (q2 ) = 12 + q2
t3 (q3 ) = 38 + q3

The total travel demand from A to B consists of 38 cars.

(a) Determine graphically the flow pattern in a deterministic user-

equilibrium.

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[4 points]
t

t3 t1 t2

38
36

12

q
q3 = 0 q1 = 14 q2 = 24 38

q1 = 14, q2 = 24, and q3 = 0.

(b) Determine analytically the flow pattern in a deterministic user-

equilibrium.

[5 points]
The following will have to hold, if all routes are used:
⎧t1 (q1 ) = t2 (q2 ) = t3 (q3 )
⎨
⎩ q1 + q2 + q3 = 38
If we solve this system, q3 will be negative, which cannot happen.
Therefore, route 3 will not be used. Hence we solve the system:
⎧t1 (q1 ) = t2 (q2 )
⎨
⎩q1 + q2 = 38
Substitute travel time functions:
⎧8 + 2q1 = 12 + q2
⎨
⎩q1 + q2 = 38
This yields: 8 + 2q1 = 12 + (38 − q1 ) , and therefore
q1 = 14, q2 = 24, and q3 = 0.

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(c) Compute iteratively the flow pattern in a deterministic user-
equilibrium. Formulate yourself a suitable stop criterion.

[6 points]
By iteratively performing an all-or-nothing (AON) assignment and then
using the method of successive averages (MSA) to compute a new
solution estimate, we can find the deterministic user-equilibrium. We
stop whenever the route travel times on the used routes deviate less
than 4 minutes from each other.

q1 q2 q3 t1 t2 t3 w1 w2 w3 α
0 0 0 8 12 38 38 0 0 1
38 0 0 80 12 38 0 38 0 1/2
19 19 0 46 31 38 0 38 0 1/3
12.7 25.3 0 33.3 37.3 38 38 0 0 1/4
19 19 0 46 31 38 0 38 0 1/5
15.2 22.8 0 38.4 34.8 38 - - - -

(d) Determine the flow pattern in a system optimal assignment. Check

that the total system travel time is indeed lower than in the user-
equilibrium assignment.

[6 points]
By using the marginal cost functions instead of the regular travel time
functions, we can solve for a system optimum by applying Wardrop’s
equlibrium law.

Marginal cost functions:

t1* (q1 ) = t1 (q1 ) + t1 '(q1 ) ⋅ q1 = 8 + 2q1 + 2q1 = 8 + 4q1
t2* (q2 ) = 12 + 2q2
t3* (q3 ) = 38 + 2q3
Now we have to solve the following system of equations:
⎧t1* (q1 ) = t2* (q2 ) ⎧8 + 4q1 = 12 + 2q2 ⎧q1 = 1 + 12 q2
⎪* * ⎪ ⎪
⎨t2 (q2 ) = t3 (q3 ) ⎨12 + 2q2 = 38 + 2q3 ⎨q3 = −13 + q2
⎪ q + q + q = 38 ⎪q + q + q = 38 ⎪(1 + 1 q ) + q + (−13 + q ) = 38
⎩ 1 2 3 ⎩ 1 2 3 ⎩ 2 2 2 2

This results in:

⎧q1 = 11
⎪
⎨q2 = 20
⎪q = 7
⎩ 3
The total system travel time is
11*(8+2*11)+20*(12+20)+7*(38+7) = 1285.
This is indeed lower than the total system travel time in the user-
equilibrium, which is 38*36 = 1368.

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 (e) Determine the flow pattern in a stochastic assignment using a logit
model with scale parameter 0.1.

[4 points]
In a stochastic assignment we do not take congestion into account (in
contrast to a stochastic equilibrium assignment). The uncongested
travel times are 8, 12, and 38, respectively.

The route flows become:

exp(−0.1⋅ 8)
q1 = ⋅ 38 = 0.5814 ⋅ 38 = 22.1
exp(−0.1⋅ 8) + exp(−0.1⋅12) + exp(−0.1⋅ 38)
exp(−0.1⋅12)
q2 = ⋅ 38 = 0.3897 ⋅ 38 = 14.8
exp(−0.1⋅ 8) + exp(−0.1 ⋅12) + exp(−0.1⋅ 38)
exp(−0.1 ⋅ 38)
q3 = ⋅ 38 = 0.0289 ⋅ 38 = 1.1
exp(−0.1⋅ 8) + exp(−0.1⋅12) + exp(−0.1⋅ 38)

Question 5: In the classical model by Von Thünen the land use for different
[13 points] agricultural commodities can be explained by the distance to the central
marketplace. A similar analysis can be made for land use and buildings
in a city by using so-called ‘bid-rent curves’, as sketched below.

rent

bid-rent curve

distance to city center

(a) What does a bid-rent curve indicate?

[3 points]
A bid-rent curve indicates how much someone (a company or a
household) is willing to pay (bid) for rent for a specific building in the
city, depending on the distance to the city center. It indicates a surplus
available for paying the rent, hence it is the maximum price that one is
willing to pay.

Suppose different demands for buildings are available, e.g. there is a

demand for (1) retail and commercial buildings, (2) apartments, and (3)
single houses. For each demand a bid-rent curve can be determined.

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 (b) Sketch in one figure the bid-rent curves for retail/commercial
buildings, apartments, and single houses and indicate in the figure
(using Von Thünen’s theory) how far from the city center each of
the building types will be built.

[6 points]

rent retail/
commercial

apartments

houses

distance from city center

retail/ apartments houses
commercial

(c) What happens to the bid-rent curves if another sub-center develops

in the city with a certain distance from the city center? Motivate
your answer.

[4 points]
If a new sub-center appears, then it becomes attractive to be close to
this sub-center as well, hence the bid-rent curves will be higher in the
proximity of this sub-center, reflecting the fact that one will be willing
to pay more rent to be close to this sub-center.

rent

distance from city center

distance to
sub-center

Question 6: Households and firms are typically the main decision-makers in land
[20 points] use models. Both make location decisions; households decide where to
live, and firms decide where to locate their company. Their location
decisions are based on different attributes, for example accessibility.

(a) Besides accessibility, give two other attributes that are important
for households and two different attributes that are important for
firms in their location choice behavior.

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[4 points]
For households:
- distance to work
- availability of public transport
- children-friendliness of the neighborhood
- rent / house prices
- etc.
For firms:
- availability of workers in the neighborhood
- type of suburb, i.e. shopping area, industry area, etc.
- size of the firm
- etc.

Accessibility can be quantified in many different ways. Suppose we

are interested in computing the accessibility of zone i to all other zones
j. Assume that each zone j has a potential M j and that the distance
from zone i to each zone j is defined by cij .

(b) Formulate a potential accessibility measure for computing the

accessibility level from a certain zone i. Explain your answer.

[5 points]
A zone i is more accessible if the distances cij to all other zones j is
shorter and the potentials (masses) M j higher. Therefore, we can
define the following potential accessibility measure:

Ai = ∑ M j f (cij ),
j

where f () is a decreasing function, e.g. f (cij ) = 1/ cij .

(c) Which other two decision-makers (besides households and firms)

can be distinguished in spatial planning, and how do their
decisions affect land use?

[4 points]
Developers:
They decide where they will invest in new buildings. This affects the
available choice locations for firms and households.

Government:
They can decide which land is available for construction of buildings
and can decide where new infrastructure is being built. This affects the
land available for construction and infrastructure. They can also set
taxes to influence land use.

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(d) What is the difference between ‘direct allocation’ and ‘free
allocation’ in the context of real-estate development?

[3 points]
directed allocation:
development of houses and firms is regulated by the government

free allocation:
development of houses and firms is influenced by spatial layout, not
determined by the government.

(e) How does new infrastructure affect the transportation and land use
system?

[4 points]
Suppose new infrastructure becomes available. Short term changes
would be the network is less congested at that accessibilities improve.
In the short run this does not have any effect on the land use. On a
medium term, travelers change routes back to the previously congested
routes and also may prefer to use cars more often than other modes,
and can decide to make more trips. This may have a negative influence
on the accessibilities, although probably a net positive effect will
remain. Improved accessibilities have an effect on land use in the long
run. Firms and households may change locations. This will have effects
on the transportation system again due to shifts in the trip distribution,
etc.

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