The University of Edinburgh

Business School

Developing a Strategy for CAS

by

Juan Diego Pesántez Durán

Capstone Project Presented for the Degree

Of

Master in Business Administration

2012 / 2013

1
 Abstract

The overall objective of the present study is to describe the strategy process that took place at
CAS, a registered charity in Scotland, and draw conclusions and insights derived from the direct
observation and participation in the strategy formulation.

The format of this document is that of a Business Project, in which, the research questions and
data are provided by the organisation:

[RQ1] What is the most appropriate way to expand the programme?

[RQ2] What growth funding scheme would assure a better opportunity to CAS in order to
become sustainable?

[RQ3] What resources and capabilities are required to assure long term sustainability?

Given the strategic nature of the research questions, concepts and techniques from the
strategic management realm are used to address them, specifically the scenario building
process suggested by Peter Schwartz (1992) to generate different future alternatives for the
regional manager to consider and inform their strategy.

The contribution of this study to the organisation lies in the range of possibilities for using the
scenarios, for instance, a cost leadership strategy might have more importance in the first
scenario in which external forces impose a diversion from an intended and optimal strategy,
whereas product development perhaps makes more sense in a world like the second scenario,
with increased activity in the third sector; investing in time and networking may result in the
break of a trend in donor behaviour portrayed in the last scenario, resulting in an opportunity
to differentiate from other charities and secure corporate donations.

The main implication derived from the process of building scenarios is that one of the key
factors of success is the availability of internships and how that supply can be influenced by
government regulations. Additionally, an opportunity to change a trend in corporate donor
behaviour also has been identified in the process of scenario building.

2
 Acknowledgements
I would like to express my gratitude to the Managers and Directors at CAS
for their collaboration in this project, especially to Anne Wexelstein for
her time and patience and to Alan Thornburrow for sponsoring the
project.
The advice and guidance from the members of the Business School has
been fundamental during the whole programme, I am grateful to Doctor
Tony Kinder, director of the MBA programme, for his constant support
and advice, and to Doctor. Kenneth Amaeshi who supervised this
dissertation.

3
Table of Contents

1 Introduction toCA UK ...........................................................................................................6

1.1 CAS (CAS): Main Challenges ..........................................................................................8

2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................8

2.1 Research Approach.......................................................................................................8

2.2 Research Questions ......................................................................................................8

2.3 Data Gathering .............................................................................................................9

2.4 Data Analysis ................................................................................................................9

2.5 Data Presentation .......................................................................................................10

3 Literature Review ...............................................................................................................11

3.1 Strategy ......................................................................................................................11

3.2 Strategic Management and the Third Sector ..............................................................13

3.3 Scenario Planning .......................................................................................................14

4 Data Presentation ..............................................................................................................15

4.1 The Strategy Process atCA ..........................................................................................15

4.2 The Strategy Process at CAS .......................................................................................16

4.2.1 Strategy Review Workshop .................................................................................17

4.2.2 Subgroup Meeting ..............................................................................................19

4.2.3 Strategy Review Presentation .............................................................................19

4.3 The Process of Building Scenarios for CAS ..................................................................20

4.3.1 Methodology in Building Scenarios ....................................................................20

4.4 The Scenarios for CAS .................................................................................................26

4.4.1 Scenario A: Expansion of the Infrastructure Sector ............................................26

4.4.2 Scenario B: Expansion of the Third Sector ..........................................................28

4.4.3 Scenario C: The Game Changes ..........................................................................29

4.4.4 Report Recommendations ..................................................................................30

5 Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................................31

4
6 References..........................................................................................................................33

7 Appendices .........................................................................................................................35

List of Figures
Figure 1. Sources of funds, (source:CA 2013) ...............................................................................7
Figure 2. Sources of funds (adapted fromCA 2013)......................................................................7
Figure 3. Information analysis using Miles and Huberman’s data display process (Saunders et
al. 2009:503) during the scenario building process. ...................................................................10

List of Tables

Table 1. Key Factors, importance and level of uncertainty ........................................................23

Table 2. Driving Forces, importance and uncertainty .................................................................23

5
1 Introduction to CA UK
The following section describes the origins of CA, what do they do in terms of public benefit,
and what are the main challenges and issues object of the present study.

CA UK is a registered charity created in 2002 by members of the business community, works

with Schools, Colleges and Employers to support young students in terms of career paths
preparation and exposure to the workplace. In 2009 expanded to the regions of Northern
Ireland and Scotland.

Through this initiative, young students from urban schools in challenging areas have an
opportunity to follow a two-year programme, which includes activities like business
mentoring, visits and seminars, lectures given by business leaders, and a paid internship during
the summer. According to an independent research by FreshMinds, the programme had a
positive impact not only for participating students but also for schools, colleges and
businesses. Participant students considered as middle achieving experience through the
programme an increase in their confidence and aspirations and a broadening of life chances
and opportunities (FreshMinds Research 2009), 85% of 2010-2011CA graduates went to higher
education, apprenticeships or employment (CA 2011). Participating Schools and Colleges have
a positive impact in terms of positioning and differentiation from other schools and in
enhancing relationships with the business community (FreshMinds Research 2009). Employers
benefit from recruiting business aware candidates with basic experience and work readiness.

This positive impact on society is funded mainly by corporate donations from the private
sector, although participant schools and colleges contribute with one fixed fee for joining the
programme and an annual fee which varies as a function of the number of students in the
academy, Figure 1 illustrates the main sources of funding; This business model is described as a
franchised business in the sense that each one of the participant schools and colleges run their
own career academy with the support and guidance of the franchiser -i.e.CA UK. (CA 2013).

6
Figure 1. Sources of funds, (source:CA 2013)

Several challenges are faced by the organisation, mainly, in terms of financing the growth,
donations from the private sector currently represent CA’s main source of funds (64% and
rising to 75% when donations in kind are included), whereas fees paid by the participant
schools and public sector can be considered as moderate contributions (12% and 4%
respectively) (CA 2013). Figure 2 shows the composition of income and the contribution of the
different sources for the time period 2009-2012 (adapted from CA (2013), values are
approximate). Even though total income has increased, the costs associated with expanding
the programme have surpassed levels of income, leading to small loses for the last three years
which have eroded the organisation reserves; additionally, the repercussions of the recession
in the UK Economy are becoming a major concern since this affects its main source of funds
and have direct implications for long term sustainability.

Figure 2. Sources of funds (adapted from CA 2013)

7
1.1 CAS (CAS): Main Challenges
At the regional level, CAS provides the same model than CA UK, that is, like in a franchised
business, each one of the participant schools and colleges run their own career academy with
the support and guidance of the franchiser (CAS).

Particularly in is region, funding the growth of the programme in order to satisfy the demand
and at the same time to secure sustainability has become the main challenge. From the
demand side, the number of participant schools and colleges has reached 2015 targets
already, and is well beyond the original forecast for this year; as a consequence, additional
resources that were not anticipated are needed to address the demand

This situation has been seen as an opportunity to review the strategy for the Scotland Region
and an approach to the University of Edinburgh Business School has been made in order to
have an additional resource to participate and contribute to the strategy review process.

2 Methodology
The overall objective of the present study is to explore the strategy process in a non-profit
organisation (CAS) and draw conclusions and insights derived from the direct observation and
participation in the formulation of their strategy for growth. The format of the study is that of
a Business Project, in which, the research questions and data are provided by the organisation.

2.1 Research Approach

The study is conducted following and inductive approach in terms of, as noted by Saunders et
al. (2009:124), its emphasis in collecting data and analysing it in order to develop theory, in
this case, the answers to the research questions. Additional considerations of this study that
“justify the adoption of an inductive approach are as the fact that the researcher is taking
active part in the strategy process, the qualitative character of the data gathered and the focus
and concern with the particular context (Saunders et al. 2009:127); in this sense, the research
questions posed have a major significance for the particular context of the organisation and,
although the procedures followed in finding the answers could be of interest for other
institutions, the more specific answers and conclusions are not intended to be generalised to
all organisations in the sector.

2.2 Research Questions

The main concerns of the management team are related to the growth of the programme, the
funding of that growth and the implications that those decisions have in terms of the

8
sustainability of the organisation; these concerns have been translated into the following
research questions for the present study:

[RQ1] What is the most appropriate way to expand the programme?

[RQ2] What growth funding scheme would assure a better opportunity to CAS in order to
become sustainable?

[RQ3] What resources and capabilities are required to assure long term sustainability?

2.3 Data Gathering

As mentioned before, the information gathered is qualitative in nature; primary information
was obtained from the direct participation in the strategy revision process of the organisation,
which took place during the months of July to September, and comprised a workshop with the
regional manager and members of the board of directors and a following subgroup meeting
with the regional manager and a reduced number of members of the board. Additionally, in-
depth face to face interviews with two other important actors in the third sector who, are
external to the organisation and wished to remain anonymous; As a founder and director of a
social enterprise in one case and as a fund raiser for a charity in the other, the interviewees
provided valuable information related to the non-profit sector, this information also became a
form of triangulation, to corroborate the findings from secondary information. Appendix A
describes the main aspects to explore during the interviews; however, the order and the topics
covered vary due to the informal nature of in-depth interviews.

Secondary information from academic journals and books provided the theoretical framework
used to address the overall objective of the present study and research questions, which are
related to business strategy, scenario planning, strategic management in the third sector, and
financing non-profits activities. Publicly available information form government agencies,
industry reports and commentators also provided inputs especially to the scenario building
process, main component of this study.

2.4 Data Analysis

To analyse the qualitative data gathered for this study, inductively based analytical procedures
described in Saunders et al. (2009:502) are used, specifically the data reduction and data
display sub-processes of doing analysis, as conceived by Miles and Huberman (1994; cited in
Saunders et al. 2009:503). Data reduction refers to the act of summarizing and simplifying the
data collected from both primary and secondary sources; Data display is used to organise data

9
in a visual network of nodes (containing key points from the data) and lines showing
relationships between nodes. Figure 3 shows the data display for the analysis of information
during the scenario building process, part of the present study:

Figure 3. Information analysis using Miles and Huberman’s data display process (Saunders et al. 2009:503) during
the scenario building process.

2.5 Data Presentation

As mentioned before, a data reduction process is used in order to summarize and present a
narrative of the strategy process at the organisation (Sections 4.1 and 4.2), the process of
creating scenarios for CA (Section 4.3) and relevant sections of the report (content) sent to the
organisation (Section 4.4, scenarios and recommendations).

10
3 Literature Review
The present section highlights the strategic nature of the research questions posed by the
organisation and the need to address them within the realm of strategic management;
however, selecting the most appropriate tool is not a trivial task, and to illustrate the
complexity involved, different schools of taught and approaches are evaluated, moreover,
specific strategies for Third Sector organisations increase the level of complexity. Additionally
the validity of business expertise in the direction of charities and the challenges of financing
activities are described. Finally, the scenario planning definitions are discussed.

3.1 Strategy
Trying to define strategy is rather difficult in part due to the level of disagreement amongst
different actors, like academics or practitioners (Wit & Meyer 2010: 3), and an inconsistently
used language, there is not much clarity and uniformity in the use of the word strategy
(Courtney 2012: 32); for instance, the terms strategy and strategic management are used with
no clear distinction by Richard L. Lynch (2012: 9), nonetheless, he also agrees in that strategic
management is a complicated subject due to the disagreement between researchers.

A broad definition of strategy then is used by de Wit and Meyer (2010: 52):

“…a course of action for achieving an organization’s purpose”

And more specifically in the realm of Strategic Management insights needed to address the
wide research questions in this study can be found since, as explained by Lynch (2012: 4), it is
directly linked to the fundamental decisions an organization makes regarding its future
direction; dealing with (Lynch 2012: 8):

“…the major intended and emergent initiatives taken by general managers on behalf of owners,
involving utilization of resources, to enhance the performance of the firm in their external
environments.”

As mentioned in section 1 and section 2.2 , the main concerns of CAS are related to the future
growth of the programme and the sustainability of the organisation, they have an strategic
connotation, in fact can be regarded as strategic problems, which according to Bob de Wit and
Ron Meyer (2010: 53) are:

“…challenging situations that need to be resolved - a set of circumstances requiring a

reconsideration of the current course of action, either to profit from observed opportunities or
to respond to perceived threats”

11
In dealing with a strategic problem, (Wit & Meyer 2010) the different dimensions of strategy
emerge: process (how strategy “comes about”), content (the strategy itself), and context (the
circumstances surrounding both, process and content), all these areas have a focus on the
different means or “courses of action”, in order to achieve an end, or “organisational
purpose”, although strategic management literature might be more focused on the former, in
practice managers act based on the latter, in fact, the purpose of the organisation can guide
the strategy process but also, as it is a central part of the corporate mission, to signal the
direction of the organisation, however, managers are not the only responsible for the
direction, in fact it is the result of the interaction between managers and the board of
directors, who controls and monitors strategic choices and actions that managers make (Wit &
Meyer 2010 : 596-598).

It seems contradictory to try to find the better answer using a body of knowledge that has so
many disagreements, however, as de Wit and Meyer (2010: 4) suggest, understanding
different theories is a means to effective strategy rather than an end, however, the complexity
will be illustrated by trying to find the answer to the question of which of the different
paradigms around strategic management should be used to better address these strategic
problems?; Kees Van der Heijden (1996 :23) characterises these paradigms in three schools of
taught: Rationalist, Evolutionist, and Processualist. The Rationalist school, Van der Heijden
argues, assumes that there is one best solution, deals first with finding the optimal strategy
after analysing several options and then with the actions to implement it –names Michael
Porter as an example of this school of taught-. The Evolutionist school in turn takes into
consideration the complexity of behaviour and explains strategy as a process of
experimentation, the winning strategies are those who were better fit and are evidenced in
retrospect –mentions Henry Mintzberg as a representative-. The Processual school is located in
the middle, here, the optimal strategies are not the result of rational thinking processes alone,
there are other processes internal to the organisation that combined will make it more flexible
and adaptable to the environment. Further, Van der Heijden (1996 :25) explains, real life
strategy making manifests elements of the three perspectives. Would rational environment-
based strategic options like generic strategies (Michael Porter’s fundamental strategies of cost
leadership, differentiation, and focus), market options (Igor Ansoff’s matrix of possibilities
available to an organisation, amongst others, penetration, product development, market
development, diversification.) or expansion methods (like mergers, acquisitions, multinational
expansion, etc. associated to strategy options and used to achieve market opportunities.)

12
(Lynch 2012: 301-321) be able to provide more opportunities to an organisation than, for
instance, non-prescriptive learning process-based approaches?

3.2 Strategic Management and the Third Sector

Not only these considerations are to be analysed, additional factors come to influence the
decision, like the specific sector of the economy in which the organisation operate; as
explained Roger Courtney (2012: 67), strategic management techniques in third sector
organisations are common since the 80’s, nonetheless, the question of whether the Third
Sector requires different management approaches from those of the Private Sector (Courtney
2012: 3) broadens even more the strategic options available to non-profits, to mention a few:
Kearns’ generic choices (growth, retrenchment, stability) Nutt and Backoff’s matrix (introduces
the political component, more relevant to non-profits, in two dimensions: pressure for action
and responsiveness), or Crutchfield and Grant’s Mixed Services and Advocacy strategy
(Courtney 2012: 143).

Perhaps the ultimate selection criteria would come, as initially mentioned, from the
organisational purpose and the management-board of directors interaction; Lambert and
Lapsley (2011) examine the implications of business expertise in the board of directors of non-
profit organisations from three activity areas (culture, arts and science) in Scotland, despite
the debate about the adequacy of for profit management practices in non-profit organisations
in terms of increased efficiency versus mission deviation, their conclusions reveal that
(Lambert & Lapsley 2011: 42)

“…there is indeed an increasing reliance on business expertise in certain charities. However, our
findings suggest that charities are very positive about the kinds of contribution business persons
can make to the conduct of the charities.”

They also conclude that the contribution of business experts is evidenced in the strategic
direction and up-to-date management methods adopted in charities, moreover, public trust in
an organisation may increase due to the presence of particularly prominent individuals from
the business sector in the board of directors (Lambert & Lapsley 2011).

The presence of business expertise in the board of directors of charities might have additional
positive implications specially in terms of sustainability, as stated by Osborne (2012), board
members of many third sector organisations that provide public services in Scotland are
participating more actively within their organisations and seeking important and skilled
persons to adhere to the board in order to increase resilience. Additionally, in a longitudinal

13
research commissioned by the Scottish Government involving 20 organisations from the third
sector, changes to the role of the board of directors are reported; respondents opined that
strengthening the activities of the organisation would increasingly demand the expertise and
professional skills of the directors (Osborne et al. 2012: 40).

Osborne (2012) also argues that sustainability for the third sector organisations providing
public services in the UK has been challenged by the recession, however, evidence from
suggests that overall, the third sector in Scotland is reacting positively enough to survive; in
terms of funds, even though traditional forms have diminished, (donations, reinvestments,
government funding) other forms remain or new forms appear, while not yet sufficient to
equal the losses this indicates a positive response of the sector. The importance of the role of
third sector organisations in providing public services is also recognised in the political arena,
however, public resources have been reduced (Alcock 2012: 4, 7). These two positions suggest
that even though the sector is not thriving it might eventually recover, on the other hand,
market reports note that the income in non-profit organisations might decrease further due to
a late reaction to the recession (Sykes 2011: 30).

Carroll and Stater (2009: 947) discuss some implications of multiple revenue streams in non-
profits, they argue that diversification is a feasible strategy for stability; organisations
depending on one source of revenue will reduce volatility over time should they diversify they
sources of funding, additionally, they observed greater instability in non-profits relying mainly
on contributions. On the other hand, Fischer et al. (2011: 676) argue that the financing of non-
profits is connected to the characteristics of the services provided, and the revenue strategy
(in terms of selecting the main and secondary sources of funds) should reflect this, contrary to
some organizations that might seek increasing income by engaging in activities unrelated to
their original mission.

3.3 Scenario Planning

Following the issue of disagreement and lack of uniformity around definitions in the realm of
strategy, two definitions of scenarios are presented in Ringland (1998: 2):

“Michael Porter defined scenarios in 1985 (Porter, 1985) as: "an internally consistent view of
what the future might turn out to be - not a forecast, but one possible future outcome."

We have defined scenario planning as: that part of strategic planning which relates to the tools
and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future.”

14
Schoemaker (1997: 45) describes scenarios as possible futures and scenario planning as a
disciplined method of imagining those futures. Moreover, central to scenario planning are the
uncertainties and their collective impact; scenarios explore multiple changes at the time,
involving subjective interpretations as opposed to sensitive analysis (Schoemaker 1997: 47).
Scenarios are seen by Peter Schwartz (1992: 4) as tools for ordering perceptions of future
environments in which, decisions might take place. They are more of learning vehicles than
predictions. In his book "The art of the Long View", Schwartz (1992) proposes a scenario
building technique to explore alternative future environments based on the analysis of three
main components: Key forces, predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. This process
entails eight steps which are explained in more detail in section 4.3

4 Data Presentation
This section describes the structure of the organisation and the role of the board of directors in
the strategy process, also narrates the scenario building process and presents the author’s
contribution to the organisation, that is, the scenario methodology, the actual scenarios and
the recommendations for CAS.

4.1 The Strategy Process at CA

As mentioned before, CA was conceived within the business community and this perspective
has shaped its organisational structure and managerial methods; the main elements of the
organisation are the National Advisory Board, a governing body mainly composed of
prominent members of the business community and of important actors in the education
sector that provides assistance and support to the Trustees of the charity, who are ultimately
responsible for the direction of the organisation; as such, they approved the current five year
strategic plan for the time period 2010-2015 and the annual business plan. Other elements of
the organisation are the Finance and Fundraising committee (comprised entirely of members
of the National Advisory Board), the Programme Leadership Team, and the Marketing and
Communications Leadership Team (CA 2011). The structure could be described as a
combination of multi-regional and matrix, as decision-making process regarding operations
and region-level strategy is decentralized to the different regions, however, regional managers
report to a Director of Regions, to several National Managers and also to a Regional Council
(governing body for that region) as shown in Figure 4.

15
Figure 4. Organizational Structure

4.2 The Strategy Process at CAS

The overall strategic direction of CA is a responsibility of the Trustees, who requested the
senior management team to prepare a mid-term revision of the five year strategic plan and to
present it during the next National Advisory Board meeting due in September 2013. As
mentioned before, the structure of the organisation decentralizes the responsibility for
developing -and reviewing- regional strategies to the regional managers, however, there is
active participation (and approval) of the Regional Council (governing body for a region) as
shown in Figure 5.

In the case of Scotland, the review of the regional strategy for growth is a three month process
(July to September) led by the regional manager, involves the participation and support of the
Regional Council and the objective is to deliver a proposal to the National Advisory Board.

16
Figure 5. Strategy review atCA

The revision and approval process started with a strategic review workshop held during the 7th
of June, the general objective was to discuss with all the members of the council different
strategic topics and agree the main subjects to be explored. A second meeting followed, this
time with a subgroup of members of the council, resulting in a focused framework for the
strategy review process in line with the agreements reached during the workshop. A third
meeting with the Regional Council is scheduled for the first week of September, in order to
present the recommendations to be approved and incorporated to the general strategy, which
in turn will be submitted by the Senior Management Team to the National Advisory Board.

4.2.1 Strategy Review Workshop

4.2.1.1 Preparation
The workshop involved all members of the Regional Council (or in few cases their delegates)
who had previously received the agenda describing the main activities that will take place
during the session along with the invitation to the workshop; the content of the agenda gave
general guidelines on preparatory work, namely, a PESTLE analysis to provide an
understanding of the environment surrounding the Scotland region and some considerations
regarding opportunities for CAS and its position for the next two years.

17
4.2.1.2 Activities
An external facilitator was invited in order to assist in maintaining structure and time,
summarizing and documenting the main points that arose during the discussion and the
researcher took part as an external observer. After an introduction from the Chair of the
Regional Council and a review of the agenda, the participants were divided into three member
subgroups in order to explore the opportunities and position of the organisation within a time
window of two years, this task lasted around 25 minutes after which one member of each
subgroup presented the key points to the audience, finally, an open debate followed in order
to discuss which ones were the most important from a strategy perspective.

4.2.1.3 Outputs
After the presentations and debate the key strategic points to be taken into account in the
development of the strategy for the region where identified and discussed, amongst others:

 The appropriateness of current operational model and the need of additional tools
(resource allocation model, financial model, cost model, scenarios, etc.)
 The differences between the Scotland Region and the other UK regions in terms of
Interaction between schools (collaborative environment vs. competitive
environment respectively).
 Demand from schools for the programme.
 Options for expanding the programme (focus in current schools vs. expanding to
new cities)
 Options for the current offer to schools (same services vs. new services, same age
range vs. expanded age range, maintain its corporate business experience vs.
including an entrepreneurship or small to medium enterprise experience, maintain
internships in the same business sectors vs. adding new business sectors)
 Alternative programmes currently offered to young students
 Options for funding (maintain current scheme vs. a shift to self-funding through
selling services)
 Main Stakeholders (Students, Schools and Colleges, Businesses, Local Authorities)
 The importance of relationships with stakeholders and networking activities
 The relevance of a contextual analysis.

Special attention was paid to the internal tools needed to better allocate current resources (in
terms of both man hours and money) and to fund additional requirements as a function of a

18
given growth strategy. A following meeting with a reduced number of participants was
arranged in order to develop the plan with the guidelines described before.

4.2.2 Subgroup Meeting

The meeting was led by the Regional Manager and given assistance by the external facilitator;
participants also included two members of the Regional Council and the researcher. The main
outcomes were the decision to develop a flexible growth model intended to inform the growth
strategy; the need to map the resource requirements and capacity use of internal processes,
roles and growth; the need of information about how the business sector in Scotland could
evolve within the next 5 years and the funding opportunities or challenges that this presents.
Figure 6 shows these three main outcomes in the form of a general framework for the strategy
review process, the areas in which the researcher has direct participation are highlighted.

Figure 6. General Framework for Strategy Revision (adapted from meeting minute)

4.2.3 Strategy Review Presentation

The document with the strategy review for the Scotland Region will be presented to the
Council for their approval, minor observations are expected since members had actively

19
participated and well informed about the process. Finally, as shown by figure 4, the output will
be incorporated in the broad strategic plan to be submitted to the National Advisory Board by
the senior management team.

4.3 The Process of Building Scenarios for CAS

As stated in the previous sections, after a meeting with members of the CAS Regional Council –
the CA UK governing body for the Scotland region- the Regional Manager has determined that
the main inputs to their strategy formation will come from a growth model (to be developed
by the organisation) able to produce a range of growth scenarios to be matched against an
internal resources/priorities appraisal. Additional inputs to their strategy will be an exploration
of the business landscape in Scotland, within a period of five years, and the funding
opportunities and challenges presented. Both inputs where specifically requested to the
researcher and presented as a report, its main content is described in this section.

4.3.1 Methodology in Building Scenarios

The scenarios delivered to the Regional Manager where developed following the steps
proposed by Peter Schwartz in his book “The Art of the Long View” (1992:226-234); the
different aspects that relate to CAS are included as well as a brief explanation of each step.

4.3.1.1 Step One: Identify Focal Issue or Decision

Schwartz (1992:226) suggests starting the developing of scenarios “from the inside out” and
then build out towards the external environment, in this way the company-specific issues and
or decisions that executive managers have to deal with will be highlighted in the scenarios, on
the other hand, starting from the outside probably will led to scenarios differing in the macro-
environment level, with less meaning to the specific issues that managers are concern about.

The scenarios developed for CAS part from the main decisions that the regional manager
needs to make related to the growth of the programme, the funding of that growth and the
implications that those decisions have in terms of the sustainability of the organisation, i.e. In
the future, should the programme grow geographically and cover new regions with new
schools or should it maintain the current number of regions and schools but aim to increase
the number of students?, should that future growth be financed using the current revenue
streams or by moving to a self-financing scheme through the selling of new products or
services?, which option will secure long term sustainability?

20
4.3.1.2 Step Two: Key Forces in the Local Environment
Listing the key factors that influence the success or failure of those previously identified
decisions, “facts about customers, suppliers, competitors, etc.” from the perspective of
decision-makers what they want to know when making key choices, what is defined as success
or failure, what considerations shape success or failure, etc. (Schwartz 1992)

Based on primary information derived from the observation and participation in the strategy
process at CAS and on secondary information from academic and non-academic publications,
the researcher has incorporated the following aspects of the local environment that are
thought will make a difference between success and failure for the different decisions or
issues: the costs associated with different growth strategies, the costs participant schools and
colleges bear related to fees and the running of an academy in general, the support from
corporate donations to fund that growth, the support of local governments to fund schools to
cover their costs of running an academy, the demand for career education (new schools,
number of schools continuing with the programme or leaving the programme, the number of
students willing to be part of the programme as well as the number of students willing to
continue the second year), the supply of internships and volunteers (mentoring of students)
coming from the business sector, the alternatives (current and new) for corporate donors
(internal CSR programmes/ local community initiatives), the alternatives for 16-year students
(substitute / complement programmes), the quality of the programme and the relationships
management with the business community and the schools.

4.3.1.3 Step Three: Driving Forces

These are the trends (and breaks in trends) at the macro-environment level influencing the key
factors (step two), Schwartz (1992:227) states that relevant aspects of the macro-environment
can come from a PESTLE analysis but also from searching for “…the forces behind[…]the
forces…” previously identified. Additionally identifying the degree of certainty (ranging from
“predetermined” to “highly uncertain”) of each trend is very useful at this stage.

According to the researcher and based on primary and secondary information, the slow pace
of recovery of the UK economy is one of the main forces behind the key factors of success
(step 2) and, as commentators, business leaders and experts suggest, this slow pace of growth
is expected to continue during the following years; slow growth of the economy is a trend that
can be situated near the “predetermined” end of the spectrum rather than towards the “highly
uncertain” end; this trend will continue to drive a decrease in individual donations, in
corporate donations, in government support to local authorities due to austerity measures and

21
cuts on spending, however, when this trend is going to be reverted (faster recovery to growth
rates pre-2008) remains uncertain; As a result of a decreasing income environment driven by
low growth rates, some charities could merge with others and some could chose to shift to a
social enterprise model, aiming to diversify their revenue streams by selling products and
services and competing with private sector companies.

In addition to the economic growth rate, other key forces that influence attitudes and
behaviours of donors, both individuals and corporations, are technology and their effect in
funding charitable causes (crowd funding, social networking, mobility, sms, etc.), shifts in
public opinion and perception (how public consider businesses and their responsibility towards
society, CSR agendas, philanthropy and giving, the role of charities, foreign aid, etc.).

Probably one of the most influent predetermined forces is demographics, for the five year
period in these scenarios the population between 7 and 22 years old is estimated to decrease
and with it the size of the group of pupils targeted by CAS, if no major migration policy changes
are implemented, then a contraction of the market for the programme could be expected with
adverse effects on income and costs for the organisations targeting this population, therefore,
more activity is to be expected not only to attract more participants to the different
programmes but also to attract new donations, resulting in an increase in expenditures
(marketing and promotion). The range between 34 to 36 years old is to experience some
contraction as well although no major impact on the supply side (volunteers) can be assumed.

Political events such as elections coming in 2014, 2015 and 2016 have an important
component of uncertainty in terms of continuity; depending on the outcomes some trends
could change, like the provision of social welfare through contracts with third sector
organisations (and/or private sector), some measures of austerity and budget cuts, etc.
Political agendas such as the Big Society could shape as well perceptions and attitudes towards
giving and charities, however, to which extent still remains uncertain. The highest degree of
uncertainty can come from major international crisis which could mobilize volunteers and
donations, these forces have a direct implication for the organisations in the third sector
however how should they unfold during the next five years and their effects remain uncertain.

The trends described in this step and the key factors in step 2 where identified from the
research workbook included in appendix B.

22
4.3.1.4 Step 4: Rank by Importance and Uncertainty
According to Schwartz (1992:229) , at this step Factors from step 2 and Forces from step 3 are
ranked depending on how important are for a successful decision or focal issue (step 1) and
how much uncertainty surrounds them, the most important and uncertain are identified and
used to form the scenario drivers, these are the fundamental differences between the
scenarios and will follow from this ranking exercise. Table 1 shows the main Key factors from
step 2 arranged from important (9) to highly important (1) according to the researcher and
based on his observations and interpretations from primary information (strategy workshop
and meetings) and secondary information (internal documents) as well.

Uncertainty
2.1 Key Forces (influencing
Forces / Trends
success
/Events
or failure)
(imagine outcomes for each) Predetermined Uncertain
(Local Environment)
Event (E), Trend (T), Force (F), Outcome (O)

1 Supply of internships / volunteers (from the private sector)

2 Demand for career-education programmes
3 Demand for substitutes of career-educational programmes
4 Demand for complements of career-educational programmes
5 Costs of fundrising activities (activities, marketing, etc.)
6 Costs covered by schools associated with running the programme
7 Corporate Donations: changes in preferences/behaviour
8 Corporate Donations: current and new alternatives (CSR, LC agendas)
9 Local Governments funding career education programmes at Schools

Table 1. Key Factors, importance and level of uncertainty

The main driving forces (step 3) are shown in Table 2 along with its level of certainty and
importance for the focal issue (step 1)

3.1 Driving Uncertainty

Forces Forces / Trends /Events (imagine outcomes for each) Predetermined Uncertain
(Macro Environment)
Event (E), Trend (T), Force (F), Outcome (O)

1 Govenrment Budget / Spending cuts (T)

2 Macroeconomic Growth Strategy (Government continuity)
3 Economic Growth
4 Government investment(Infraestructure and certain industry sectors)
5 Government Regulation (charity sector, third sector, private sector)
6 Demographics affecting directly to demand for the programme (s5-s6)
7 Elections
8 Evolution of public opinion and CSR, effect on behaviour
9 International crises bringing new causes
10 New perceptions/opinions around philantrophy
11 New forms of funds sourcing and their effect on individual giving
12 Migratory Policy affecting demographics

Table 2. Driving Forces, importance and uncertainty

From Tables 1 and 2, supply and demand are the critical factors of success and the government
actions can be considered as the main forces behind the forces that have an influence on those
factors, additionally, the major levels of uncertainty are around the demand for complements
or supplements of the programme, and the elections results (the debate over further
devolution of powers after the 2014 referendum, political programme continuity after the
2015 UK Parliamentary Elections and 2016 Scottish Parliamentary elections), this elements can

23
make a difference on how the forces interact during the time period contemplated in the
scenarios.

4.3.1.5 Step 5: Selecting Scenario Logics

As mentioned in the previous section, the quantity of scenarios and their content can vary
dramatically depending on the number of ranked components identified and selected to form
the scenario logics, in the scenarios developed for CAS, the researcher has selected two main
forces (scenario drivers): Government regulations in charity sector and educational reform,
and Supply of internships and Volunteers; this forces, when presented as axis in a matrix
(Figure 7) lead to four different scenarios with different logics, depending on the quadrant
they are positioned.

Expansion of the Expansion of the

Infrastructure Sector Third Sector

The Game Changes

Figure 7. Scenario Drivers Matrix: fundamental differences between scenarios depending on its location.

Scenario A is characterized by high availability of internships and volunteers in a strongly

regulated environment for both charities and schools. Scenario B differs from Scenario A in
that the government will facilitate the formation of new charities and social enterprises by
easing legal requirements and at the same time allowing schools and colleges to choose the
career education provider, options come from the government initiative or from a third party
(charity or private business). Scenario C represents a future in which there is less internships
available for S5 – S6 students and volunteering for mentoring this particular group has
declined, additionally, high pressures from the government in terms of measuring schools by
the number of young people not in education, employment or training, after leaving the
institution. Finally, a fourth logic might lead to a scenario characterised by a low supply of

24
internships/volunteers in a less regulated environment for charities and decentralized
decision-making for schools and colleges however, issues about plausibility prevent a further
exploration of this scenario.

4.3.1.6 Step 6 Fleshing Out the Scenarios

Once the scenario drivers have been selected and the logics for each scenario been formed,
the other key factors and driving forces are used to complete a narrative for each scenario.

For Scenario A the increased supply of internships are the result of a continuous support from
the government to new investment in the clean energy sector, an increase of spending on
infrastructure and the consequent expansion of the tourism industry that follows from both,
new infrastructure and a continued trend in preference for local tourism versus travelling
abroad. On the other hand, increased pressure from the government will influence schools to
adopt career education programmes, increasing the demand in all the regions and cities of
Scotland, expansion into new cities and regions represents an increased cost for the providers
which are collaborating to find effective ways to respond to this pressure and to maintain the
quality of the programme and service level required by the government.

Scenario B in contrast depicts an increased number of volunteers and new charitable causes,
many of them resulting from international crises related to natural disasters, environmental
events, etc. Internships will come from the public sector, other social enterprises and from
private sector organisations providing welfare services through government contracts. Election
results led to increased activity in the provision of welfare by social enterprises and for-profit
organisations. A trend for business led charities and social enterprises follows from this
increased activity.

Scenario C will reflect a low availability of volunteers from businesses mainly due to a strong
trend towards developing their own CSR programmes and their employees preferring to
volunteer to own causes above others. Additionally, the minimum legal age to leave school
raised by the government has an effect on demand for the programme, finally the
identification of an opportunity to influence and change a trend in corporate donation
behaviour is identified.

4.3.1.7 Step 7: Implications

The focal issue or decision identified in step 1 is evaluated in each of the different scenarios, an
assessment of how robust the decision looks across all scenarios or how consistent the

25
implications for the focal issue are in all the cases will provide significant inputs for the
strategy of the organisation. Implications for CAS are detailed in section 4.4.5

4.3.1.8 Step 8: Leading Indicators and Signposts

As time moves forward it is important to identify which scenario is the one that closest relates
to the course of history, some key indicators are selected and monitored in order to have the
advantage of knowing the possible implications for the future. The scenarios constructed
according this methodology would be able to translate variations on these key indicators into
industry-specific implications (Schwartz 1992).

For CAS, the key indicators could be taken from government regulations and the results of the
elections since how changes in these areas can affect directly to the growth of a business
sector which in turn supply internships and funds.

Trends in corporate donation behaviour are worth to closely monitor since can reveal
opportunities, for instance, a shift from report based donation towards audit based donation
(Privett & Erhun 2011) can be initiated byCA and, if successful, the advantages of the first
mover can be reflected on an increase in number of donors or frequency in donations.

The Government migration policy and its impact on demographics should be monitored;
however, its effect and implications for CAS would take place in a longer period of time.

4.4 The Scenarios for CAS

A Business Report was delivered to the Regional Manager with a description of the Scenario
Planning technique, the methodology used in building the scenarios (previous section) and
recommendations and implications for the organisation. The relevant parts of the report that
apply to the present study are included in the next paragraphs:

4.4.1 Scenario A: Expansion of the Infrastructure Sector

“The year 2018 is about to end and at this time most of the editorials and articles in the
newspapers and specialized publications make the most varied forecasts for the next year,
planning for the future is important, however, sometimes is useful to take a look back and
reflect upon the events from the past. In this review of past five years we highlight the main
events and challenges faced by the organisation.

The political environment has benefited from a stable, although lengthy, recovery process of
the economy. Even though many experts agree in that it will take a few more years to surpass
pre 2008 GDP growth rates, the positive signs that started appearing by the end of 2013 and

26
continued during 2014 reflected a slight recovery in purchasing power and influenced voter’s
perceptions just in time before the 2015 elections, which in turn led to a continuity of the
political agenda.

This continuity had been evident especially in the support and commitment with environmental
goals not only to comply with EU carbon emissions legislation but also to meet internal green
energy targets, which caused an increase of investments on renewable energy generation
projects and put the sector in the top of the list of major employers. A second industry sector
that benefited directly from a continued political agenda was the transportation infrastructure,
improvements in existing railways, enhancements of motorways and the completion in 2015 of
the Borders Railroad not only contributed to creation of jobs but also helped additional sectors
to reach their full potential, like the tourism industry; economic conditions after 2008 created a
shift in preferences from travelling abroad to spend holidays in the country and the resulting
increased demand for domestic travel and tourism was not constrained by transportation
issues especially after 2015. However, not all of the sectors expanded significantly during the
time period between 2013 – 2018; for example, the Oil and Gas industry have experienced a
decrease in exploration activity, additionally an increase of the government’s revenue share in
the form of taxes and royalties made major investments to look less attractive. The
construction sector experienced a significant contraction despite some activity during the first
part of the period; it suffered from a serious skill shortage created by the retirement of an aged
workforce.

At the Organisation level, the industry sectors that expanded during the last five years, namely
tourism, transport infrastructure and energy generation from renewable sources, provided not
only the major number of internships for the students participating in the programme, but also
an important amount of donations, although they have been increasingly difficult to source and
demanded more time and money each year; many of the companies have adopted a yearly
rotation approach to support different charities in which the employees vote which cause to
support during a given year; this shift in behaviour has had a direct impact in terms of
marketing and promotion expenses. Income from the provision of the new services launched in
2015 had reached a significant level last year and have potential for increased growth, alumni
have responded enthusiastically to the courses we offered them and also their individual
donations have increased, regarding Interplan –a variation of the “year of planning” training
programme aimed at SMEs willing to create and run their own internship/apprenticeship plans-
there has been an increased interest in the services from both businesses and charities.

27
In terms of costs, an important influence came from new government regulations on
measurement of performance for schools and colleges, many of them responded by providing
of compelling career education programmes beyond career advice, this measure increased the
demand for the programme in new regions and cities; at the same time the demographic group
of S5 – S6 had declined consistently since 2006, although the trend is expected to be reverted
during next year it will take 6 more years just to equal the numbers of 2013; the combined
effects of demographic trends in the S5 – S6 age groups and new government regulations in
education put considerable pressure to the internal costs structure (increased costs due to
geographic expansion) and the revenue streams (reduced numbers of potential participants).
Partnerships with other providers in new regions and cities to reduce costs were analysed,
however, the challenge is to find the right organisation with enough experience to maintain the
quality of the programme.”

4.4.2 Scenario B: Expansion of the Third Sector

“The world of the expansion of the third sector is marked by a significant grow of the non-profit
sector both in quantity of new organisations and in volunteering activity.

In terms of number of actors in the non-profit sector, a considerable increase of charities and
social enterprises is observed mainly due to a less restricted environment provided by the new
government elected in 2015 when loosen the minimum requirements needed to be registered
as a charity and at the same time to an increase in government contracts to provide welfare
services, an approach that helped to reduce public social expending and budget deficit.

In terms of activity, the increasing amount of new causes and options for volunteers is a result
of a positive response of the public to the marketing and communication efforts of
organisations and government agenda (year of giving, big society, etc.) but also is a reaction to
a more frequent occurrence of natural disasters in foreign countries, the severity of such
unfortunate events is such that mobilised more and more volunteers and business leaders who
are steering their energy, time and donations to help to tackle these issues as a priority.

In this world of increased charities and causes, more managerial expertise coming from the
business sector is needed to secure success, especially when biding for government contracts or
adopting social enterprise business models, this trend is evidenced amongst other things by the
increase in communication and marketing budgets amongst non-profit organisations, at first
regarded as non-critical but now seen as a vital activity of a strategic connotation; for charities,
there is an increased need to maintain their cause resonating in the minds of private donors
and business leaders, and at the same time to avoid confusion and to stand out from other

28
organisations, the common view is that these efforts are more likely to contribute securing not
only a more stable supply of funds but also of volunteers to support their causes.”

4.4.3 Scenario C: The Game Changes

“....Signs of economic recovery have been more evident since 2014, however, memories from
the financial crisis of 2008 are still resonating in the minds of the public, especially of those in
their late twenties and early thirties (the cohort of young people aged 16 to 20 back in 2008),
they experienced first-hand the effects of the global financial crisis and witnessed the collapse
of corporations involved in serious scandals, in their views, businesses have a social
responsibility and they expect that corporations act beyond their legal obligations, increased
episodes of consumer reactions towards non-ethical behaviour of firms are reflected in reduced
profits as a result of collective actions, catalysed by social media, against a given product; the
response to this powerful force has manifested in more business implementing and promoting
a Corporate Social Responsibility agenda and realising the strategic connotation of CSR; an
important segment of that cohort is also part of a business and are advocates for implementing
or maintaining the CSR agenda; this trend had a repercussion for many non-profit
organisations, on the one hand an increased competition for donations not only against non-
profits but also against CSR initiatives challenges their long term survival, and on the other
hand employees prefer volunteering for their own cause: the internal CSR agenda, leading to
an increase in costs for the charities that rely on voluntary work. Another sign of change is the
renewed interest around philanthropy, affluent world leaders have increasingly been
promoting giving around the world and this trend has influenced private donations in a positive
manner, charities that had strong links with philanthropists have regained stability through the
promotion of their good causes. Government regulations have evolved during the past years,
education reforms have been gradually introduced and an increase in the legal age to leave
school has been imposed, however, increased number of options are available to the students,
in fact, the schools are not the only providers of those options, also private and non-profit
organisations are increasingly entering in the educational services sector. Strict evaluation and
monitoring from the authorities is posing some restrictions to the service providers, especially
after the public expressed their disapproval towards the long hours and work load that interns
in the investment banking industry have to bear, this new restrictions are more general rather
than industry-specific, which has prevented other business from creating internship
programmes.

Another shift in behaviour has been observed, perhaps as a result of the increased competition
for donations, some non-profit organisations have realized that a migration from reported-

29
based donations to audit-based donations result more appealing to major corporations and
consequently have started to offer that option, the organisations that first promoted the audit
based scheme achieved an advantage in sourcing corporate donations for their causes as
compared to those who do not have the capability to elaborate or comply with an audit based
control.”

4.4.4 Report Recommendations

The main implications for CAS that are portrayed across all of the scenarios are, on the one
hand, the increased number of causes, charities and social enterprises and the consequent
demand for more efforts in communications, public relations and marketing in order to keep
the organisation mission resonating in the minds of the public, marketing expenses might
increase however the strengthening of the relationships with firms in those industries have the
potential to ease those costs. On the other hand, even though alternatives exist to source
support from other firms, the activity requires an important amount of time dedicated to
source, foster and strength the links and time is one of the scarcest resources today. Two of
the strengths of the organisation are of a particular relevance to overcome those constraints:
its capacity to mobilize support for the cause and the connections and networks of the
members of the Scottish Council and National Advisory Boards. In terms of mobilizing support,
CAS might seek to translate the required activities in the form of modular projects offered to
different volunteers from the education sector (students from Business Schools) or private
sector (employees in the pipeline to middle/senior manager positions) interested in gaining
managerial experience.

Important implications for growth strategy come from Scenario A, in which external influences
could force to change the strategy significantly; the optimum strategy from the managers
perspective might perhaps consist in growing in number of students maintaining the same
areas and schools, since this approach is more cost effective and therefore more sustainable,
however, regulations to the education sector or increased alternatives for S5-S6 students
might create pressures for expanding geographically, even when it might not be cost effective.
The increase in costs associated to these external forces can be covered by additional sources
of funding from new products of services. In Scenario A the suggestion is to leverage in the
current capabilities ofCA towards product development, create a training programme based
on the current year of planning but offered to a different audience and or target the alumni
network and offer additional educational services depending on their current circumstances. In
the same way, product development options can be handled as modular projects.

30
It can be argued that charities or social enterprises that offer products have as main source of
funds the revenues from commercial activity, whereas grants and donations as secondary
sources of income; conversely, organisations providing services are less prone to move to a
complete self-funding scheme.

One implication that represent an opportunity for CAS is portrayed in Scenario C, as a break in
the trend of corporate donations based in reports towards auditing or a new form that
businesses could find more attractive, if this kind of initiative comes from a business-led
charity likeCA, given its strong links with the business community, it could become in a shift in
the trend, therefore, an exploration of the potential for audited based donations (or other
forms) as an alternative to report based donations offered to corporations (and or government
agencies) is recommended in order to achieve a first mover advantage in this particular area.

5 Discussion and Conclusions

The work of Bob de Wit and Ron Meyer (2010) provides the framework for this discussion in
terms of not only the approach to describe strategy in its three main dimensions, namely
process, content and context, but also in structuring the different debates in the field as
strategy tensions. Particularly important for the discussion is the definition of a strategic
problem (Wit & Meyer 2010: 53):

“…challenging situations that need to be resolved - a set of circumstances requiring a

reconsideration of the current course of action, either to profit from observed opportunities or
to respond to perceived threats”

In this sense, the research questions part of this study are indeed the strategic problems that
managers need to address, they have each, in turn, the three dimensions previously
mentioned, and in the process of finding the answers some tensions of strategic nature arise.

The strategy process (Wit & Meyer 2010: 52) deals, amongst other things, with how the
strategy should be formulated, implemented and changed; at CAS the process focused entirely
in the formation part during the three months of the research; at this point –de Witt and
Meyer (2010: 114) explain- the central tension resides in the deliberateness versus the
emergence of strategy; to what extent the managers at CAS –or any other organization- should
aim for a deliberate or emergent strategy? In the particular case object of this study, the
strategy process is formal and, regarding the formulation phase, the scale inclines towards the
deliberate end of the spectrum; from the perspective of the observer this can be in part due to

31
both, the active role of the regional and national governing bodies in strategy formation, and
to their composition: business orientated members with vast experience in well-established
industries. The need of a plan for resources allocation and modelling growth (as mentioned in
section 4.2.2), is a common view; however, it can be argued that as a charity being more
exposed to financial instability given its strong dependence on donations and ultimately on the
economy, the organisation should be flexible enough in order to quickly adapt to the changes
of the external environment and innovative in searching for new sources of funding, thus it
would seek to move to an emerging strategy approach since adaptation and innovation are
more likely to occur from an emerging strategy; nonetheless, as mentioned in section 3, the
strategic decisions are closely controlled and monitored by the governing body, who are
responsible for maintaining the mission of the organisation and its original purpose, and based
on it they will ultimately decide if such a change should take place, additionally, the directors
are legally responsible for the appropriate use of funds and achieving the organisation’s
charitable objectives.

The answer to the research question about the best way to grow is as complex as the realm of
strategy itself, through the participation in the strategy process at CAS, by using a non-
prescriptive tools from the scenario planning technique, different versions of possible future
environments that the regional manager might face were delivered, this will inform the
strategic choices but ultimately is the interaction between regional management and
governing body which will decide the best way to grow, and the overall direction of the
organisation. The contribution of this study to the organisation lies in the range of possibilities
for using the scenarios, not only as an input to strategy formation but also as a test for a
defined strategy (Wilson 2000: 28). For instance, In the views of the regional manager a cost
leadership strategy might have more importance in a world like Scenario A in which external
forces impose a diversion from an intended and optimal strategy, whereas product
development perhaps makes more sense in a world like Scenario B with increased activity in
the third sector; finally, in futures like Scenario C investing in time and networking may result
in the break of a trend in donor behaviour and therefore in an opportunity to differentiate
from other charities and secure corporate donations.

Regarding the funding scheme that assure sustainability, the conversation between the
researcher and the regional manager evolved around the self-funding scheme, however, after
analysing the literature and the opinions of the two experienced mangers interviewed (the
director of a social enterprise and the corporate fundraiser of a health charity) external to the
organisation, even though the need to explore additional sources of revenue becomes more

32
evident, it is not recommended to depend either in one only source (grants or commercial
activity) since maintaining different sources will contribute to financial stability and therefore
the longevity of the firm (Carroll & Stater 2009), or, when having a diversified portfolio of
income, to select as primary source of funding a stream that does not relate directly to the
nature of the benefits that the charity provides to society, this means forCA that corporate
donations may still be the main sources of funds and should develop more products or services
in order to diversify their income, then those new services and products must first, continue to
be a source of secondary contribution to total income and second, to be strongly related to the
nature of the organisation, the implication of the latter is that the new products should
leverage on existing capabilities and competences, like those suggested in Scenario A, which
either target the alumni or the business sector by offering additional courses or training
programmes respectively.

Scenario planning experts like Schwartz (1992: 234), Van der Heijden (1996: 124) and Wilson
(2000: 29) agree in the participative connotation of scenario planning at all levels of the
organisation and the importance of institutionalise the process in order to increase the
benefits from it. In the case ofCA scenario planning techniques have not been used before and
the time constraints of the management team members prevented them from directly
participating in the key steps to build scenarios, to overcome this constraint the researcher has
made an interpretation about the importance of the different key factors for the organisation
based on his observations and participations in the different meetings, this will perhaps have a
repercussion in terms of the level of acceptance of the message however, this can be an
opportunity to introduce the technique to the team and arouse their curiosity. A complete
adoption of scenario planning as central part of strategic planning at CAS is more unlikely given
the amount of time and resources involved, however as mentioned by Wilson (2000: 29) the
use of scenarios in a one shot basis demands less investments and could be adopted in the
future.

6 References
Alcock, P., 2012. The Big Society: a new policy environment for the third sector, Working paper
82. TSRC: University of Birmingham. Available at: http://socialwelfare.bl.uk/subject-
areas/government-issues/social-
policy/thirdsectorresearchcentre/135909LinkClickwp82.pdf [Accessed July 4, 2013].

CA, 2013. Local Focus for National Success: Review of the Business Plan 2010 - 2015
(Unpublished).

33
CA, 2011. Trustees’ Annual Report and Financial Statements For the year ended 31 March
2011,CA UK. Available at:
http://www.careeracademies.org.uk/media_library.php/907/trustees-annual-report-
and-financial-statements-2011.

Carroll, D.A. & Stater, K.J., 2009. Revenue Diversification in Nonprofit Organizations: Does it
Lead to Financial Stability? Journal of Public Administration Research & Theory, 19(4),
pp.947–966.

Courtney, R., 2012. Strategic management in the third sector, Basingstoke: Palgrave
Macmillan.

Fischer, R.L., Wilsker, A. & Young, D.R., 2011. Exploring the Revenue Mix of Nonprofit
Organizations: Does It Relate to Publicness? Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly,
40(4), pp.662–681.

FreshMinds Research, 2009. Rising Aspirations - Independent Research into the impact ofCA
UK,CA UK. Available at: http://www.careeracademies.org.uk/pages/our-impact.html
[Accessed June 3, 2013].

Van der Heijden, K., 1996. Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Available at:
http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/handle/2042/32161 [Accessed August 24, 2013].

Lambert, V. & Lapsley, I., 2011. Bringing Business Expertise to the Governance of Non Profit
Organisations. In A. Heilmair et al., eds. Perspektiven des Verbandsmanagements.
Gabler, pp. 29–45. Available at: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-8349-
6686-5_3 [Accessed July 12, 2013].

Lynch, R., 2012. Strategic management 6th ed., Harlow, England ; New York: Pearson.

Osborne, S.P., 2012. Debate: Can the third sector survive the recession? Evidence from
Scotland. Public Money & Management, 32(4), pp.245–247.

Osborne, S.P. et al., 2012. The Opportunities and Challenges of the Changing Public Services
Landscape for the Third Sector in Scotland: A Longitudinal Study Year Three Report
(2009-2012). The Scottish Government. Available at:
http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/5811/1/Third_Sector_Report.070113.pdf
[Accessed July 4, 2013].

Privett, N. & Erhun, F., 2011. Efficient Funding: Auditing in the Nonprofit Sector.
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, 13(4), pp.471–488.

Ringland, G., 1998. Scenario planning: Managing for the future, John Wiley & Sons. Available
at: http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/handle/2042/30191 [Accessed August 6, 2013].

Saunders, M., Lewis, P. & Thornhill, A., 2009. Research Methods for Business Students, Pearson
Education.

Schoemaker, P.J., 1997. Disciplined imagination. Interantional Studies of Management and

Organization, 27(2), pp.43–70.

Schwartz, P., 1992. The art of the long view: scenario planning: protecting your company
against an uncertain future, London: Century Business.

34
Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at: http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
[Accessed August 5, 2013].

Wilson, I., 2000. From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action. Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, 65(1), pp.23–29.

Wit, B. de & Meyer, R., 2010. Strategy: process, content, context: an international perspective
4th ed., Andover: South-Western Cengage Learning.

7 Appendices

35
Appendix A: Interview Design

The purpose of this section is to identify areas of interest to be covered in interviews with
stakeholders as part of the data collection process for the MBA Capstone Project. Additionally
to define the preferred profile of the interviewee.

36
Areas of Interest

The different areas of interest are broadly classified in three broad groups, namely, Research
Questions (Demand for growth, Financing/Funding that growth, Resources and Capabilities
needed), Macro Environment perception (PESTLE), Meso Environment perception, Micro
Environment perception

Micro Environment

What is the purpose of the organization, what its origins?

What is their current mission? has it changed during the years?
How they assess / measure impact (outcome, output, externalities, etc.)?
Who are the stakeholders and how are they served?
What is the organizational structure and governance?

Meso Environment

What is the perception about the surrounding environment?

Macro Environment

What is their view on the Macro Environment in the context of PESTLE analysis?

Research Questions

How growth is seen and if there is a formal strategic process to address this?
What are the relationships and implications between that demand for growth and the
funding/financing needed to meet that growth?
What are the resources and capabilities needed to serve the demand and growth?

Profile

The preferred interviewees for the study have experience in the voluntary sector, working in
positions at a director or senior manager levels.

Appendix B: Scenario Building Research Workbook

lcock, P., 2012. The Big Society: a new policy environment for

irmingham. Available at: http://socialwelfare.bl.uk/subject-

cock, P., 2012. The Big Society: a new policy environment for

rmingham. Available at: http://socialwelfare.bl.uk/subject-

nding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,

olicy/thirdsectorresearchcentre/135909LinkClickwp82.pdf
licy/thirdsectorresearchcentre/135909LinkClickwp82.pdf

ntelligence/view/product/10619/offshore-oil-%26-gas-
he third sector, Working paper 82. TSRC: University of
e third sector, Working paper 82. TSRC: University of

kes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:

ntelligence/view/product/10351/energy-
ndustry?utm_source=kn.reports.browse

ndustry?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
telligence/view/product/10489/charity-

ttps://www.keynote.co.uk/market-

ttps://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
tp://www.keynote.co.uk/market-

reas/government-issues/social-
eas/government-issues/social-

37
Accessed July 4, 2013].
ccessed July 4, 2013].

eference
ference

13]
s year,
ption
t part,
ansport

ly small
ly in
wable
the use
ational
https://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
high
intelligence/view/product/10644/renewable-
r EU
energy?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
e GHG

city
er of
is

grow
ne.
be
050

https://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
mers
intelligence/view/product/10366/travel-%26-tourism-
()
market?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
obile
es by
of
market

38
ering
ing
by a https://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
launch intelligence/view/product/10753/digital-
enue communications?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
lthough
ages,
e

, such

has
n

ies in https://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
s in the intelligence/view/product/2214/construction-
in industry?utm_source=kn.reports.browse)
ctor.

g direct
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00401529.pdf
ancing
g

pth of
ditional
https://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
in
intelligence/view/product/2214/construction-
industry?utm_source=kn.reports.browse
will
 Index Code
e,
ts’ day-to-
ding
and Sport,
http://mail-communications.rbs.com/economics-
Office all
pdfs/cewb010713ext.pdf
ion and
is is the
asts used

ogy.
r thanks to
r Twitter,
so another
Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:
http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
lephone
intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-
iate giving
funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,
re of
2013]
nd hassle
lso allows
, which

the visit of
Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:
art of the
http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-
r wealth to
funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,
r during
2013]
Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:
ion & Skills
http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-

39
intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-
ith various
funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,
2013]
Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:
he http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
e intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-
om funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,
2013]

olicy http://mail-communications.rbs.com/economics-
nt to keep pdfs/cewb290713.pdf

Eurozone
future http://mail-communications.rbs.com/economics-
d this pdfs/cewb050813.pdf
the US
s.
lf of this
rkets
interest
the Bank
https://www.stoneshot.com/e/rbs/economics-
rise in
pdfs/cewb270813.pdf
was not
rates are
n to push

Sykes, J., 2011. Charity funding 2011. Available at:

tain and
http://www.keynote.co.uk/market-
my
intelligence/view/product/10489/charity-
see a rise
funding?utm_source=kn.reports.browse [Accessed August 5,
2013]
40
 Finally, and perhaps most importantly there was the commitment to reform the Alcock, P., 2012. The Big Society: a new policy env
delivery of public services by extending the role of private and third sector the third sector, Working paper 82. TSRC: Universi
Trend to extend public services delivery to both private and third sector organisations as provider agencies, commissioned by government. Plans for this Birmingham. Available at: http://socialwelfare.bl
3.1.7
("Open Public Services" white paper) were outlined in a White Paper (2011b) called Open Public Services, which areas/government-issues/social-
promoted the value of diversity of provision, but did not contain any specific policy/thirdsectorresearchcentre/135909LinkClic
concrete legislative proposals. [Accessed July 4, 2013].
Outside of the protected areas (Health, Schools, Overseas Aid), Energy and Climate
Change and Transport have come out well thanks to a boost in capital expenditure.
http://mail-communications.rbs.com/economics-
3.1.8 Govenrment Budget / Spending cuts (T) Business, Innovation and Skills has also done relatively well, while Defence has a
pdfs/2013_spendinground.pdf
small overall real terms cut, but a commitment to increase real equipment
expenditure.
plans to reform the careers guidance system in England. The proposals include
taking responsibility out of the hands of Connexions Partnerships and devolving
3.1.9
budgets to school level. Concerns are expressed for what this means for the http://socialwelfare.bl.uk/subject-areas/services
Government Regulation (education, charity sector and private sector) impartiality of guidance and the quality of services. (42 NPC) activity/education-skills/newphilanthropycapital

41