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GROUP LEADER)
CF-026)
8)
ATTOCK 3 STATEMENT MODEL
2009 2010
Assumptions
Income statement
Revenue Growth (% Change) -10%
Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue) 68% 74%
Gross Profit (% of Sales) 32% 26%
Finance Cost (% of Sales) 1.407% 1.012%
Depreciation (% of Revenues) 0.118% 0.118%
Income Tax Expense (% of total expenses) -65% -49%
Tax Rate (% of Earnings Before Tax) -25% -27%
Balance Sheet
Trade Receivable (Days) 26 17
Inventory (Days) 38 41
Trade & other Payables (Days) 54 65
Capital Expenditures ($000's) -286,642 -331317
Non-Current Liabilities/ Net Sales 0.124 0.078
Return on Assets 0.218 0.142
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.089 0.000
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.054 1.825
Unconsolidated Income Statement
Revenue 8,510,071 7,668,133
Cost of sales 5,801,099 5,710,166
Gross profit 2,708,972 1,957,967
Distribution costs 437,194 466,659
Administrative expenses 182,420 183,933
Other expenses 147,402 102,969
Total Expenses 767,016 753,561
Other income 166,533 261,539
Profit from operations (EBITDA) 2,108,489 1,465,945
Finance cost 119,763 77,628
Share of net income associate accounted for using equity method 12,134 0
Profit before income tax (PBT) 2,000,860 1,388,317
Income tax (expense) / credit -495775 -371632
Profit for the year (PAT) 1,505,085 1,016,685
Other comprehensive income/(loss): 12134 -13062
Total comprehensive income for the year 1,517,219 1,003,623
Supporting Shedule
Working Capital Schedule
Trade receivables - considered good 613,934 366,170
Inventory 599,605 646,494
Trade and other payables 856330 1015724
Net Working Capital (NWC) 357,209 -3,060
Change in NWC -360,269
Depreciation Schedule
PPE Opening 4,143,534 4,420,136
Plus Capex - Capital Expenditure -286,642 -331,317
Less Depreciation 10,040 9,034
PPE Closing 4,420,136 4,742,419
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
(2,000,000)
(4,000,000)
(6,000,000)
(8,000,000)
(10,000,000)
35,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2009 2010
Annual Historical Da
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
12% 24% 8% 9% 4% 6%
80% 72% 69% 70% 66% 60%
20% 28% 31% 30% 34% 40%
0.284% 0.109% 0.129% 0.237% 0.199% 0.153%
0.101% 0.077% 0.095% 0.105% 0.102% 0.098%
-45% -57% -50% -47% -65% -81%
-34% -29% -20% -24% -32% -32%
23 19 18 15 21 16
72 67 44 48 41 58
70 57 73 83 74 117
-1403212 -448942 -876144 -517290 -294781 -1572267
0.066 0.088 0.104 0.100 0.082 0.089
0.043 0.165 0.196 0.149 0.166 0.185
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1.604 1.944 1.918 2.048 2.181 1.949
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 6,517 11,883 7,956 4,029
566,358 938,078 1,041,977 1,003,706 813,378 809,516
0 0 148,952 240,493 252,336 425,333
566,358 938,078 1,197,446 1,256,082 1,073,670 1,238,878
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
983 768 2,763 2,246 2,378 2,269
CASH FLOW
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
(2,000,000)
(4,000,000)
(6,000,000)
(8,000,000)
(10,000,000)
Cash from Operations Cash from Investing Cash from Financing Net Changes in Cash
Income Statement
35,000,000
30,000,000
Income Statement
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202
4 16 14 10 11 13
80 114 78 89 90 93
158 156 82 107 132 119
-8752605 -2076529 -953141 -332522 -3927425 -1822404
0.191 0.233 0.135 0.093 0.186 0.162
0.141 0.169 0.102 0.036 0.153 0.106
0.300 0.407 0.427 0.311 0.522 1.057
0.884 0.918 1.175 1.072 0.985 0.774
12 12 12 0 0
87 90 90 264 441.81
110 120 116 413 875.41
-1758873 -2502901 -2028059 (7,762,153) (9,881,431)
0.144 0.164 0.157 70% 89%
0.098 0.123 0.117 4.7% 3.1%
1.218 1.381 1.678 27.7% 30.0%
0.774 0.787 0.766 28% 19%
1,600,000 1,500,000
2,065 1,033
799,816 817,747
397,768 489,453
3,710,376 4,715,154 4,984,148 2,799,649 2,808,233
(1,429,812) (1,543,669)
0 0
0 0
(2,480) (1,032)
-1,795,432 -1,026,461 -1,316,910 (1,432,292) (1,544,701)
0 0 0 1,600,000 1,500,000
0 0 0 0 0
2,815 3,707 3,459 1000 1000
0 0 0 58 72
316.87 289.03 304.45 11695.7 3094.6
668.77 464.66 653.34 15973.9 295.6
(922,625) (1,196,653) (2,420,726) (1,069,706) (435,143)
81% 135% 126% 85% 67%
2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 18.1% 1.6%
27.6% 43.6% 30.7% 32.3% 44.1%
21% 22% 24% 25% 31%
- - - 709,917 1,112,874
2,060,701 2,051,599 2,667,279 3,649,066 38,008,445
4,349,203 3,298,197 5,723,888 4,983,843 3,630,842
(2,288,502) (1,246,598) (3,056,609) (624,860) 35,490,477
(394,605) 1,041,904 (1,810,011) 2,431,749 36,115,337
62 46 62 88 75
309.7 271.5 334.5 353.2 256
320.5 337.9 352.4 340.7 319
(290,366) (505,634) 393,803 (9,778) (43,926)
64% 57% 60% 58% 43%
1.5% 2.2% 3.9% 1.3% 1.5%
50.3% 40.1% 34.9% 38.6% 38.5%
28% 31% 26% 28% 32%
66 67 67 67 70
2331 993 693 747 815
2563 647 697 751 810
(550,000) (11,000) (60,000) (1,240,980)
78% 79% 78% 78% 73%
2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%
7.3% 49.4% 17.1% 18.8% 18.3%
26% 26% 27% 27% 28%
72 69 66
884 960 1060
875 952 1042
(15,000) (70,900)
68% 67% 67%
2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
22.4% 20.5% 18.2%
28% 28% 28%
Hard-coded WACC
-- or --
Risk-free Rate 7.7%
Beta (Levered) 0.86
Equity Risk Premium 1.7%
Calculated Cost of Equity 9.20%
WACC 8.23%
VALUATION
Revenue
Growth %
EBITDA
Finance Cost
EBIT
Income Tax (Expense)/Credit
EBIAT
Other comprehensive income/loss:
Net Income
Depreciation
Inc/dec in Working Capital
Capital expenditures
Full year Free Cash Flow
Less: Pre-valuation date flows
Discountable Free Cash Flow
Discounted FCF
Discounted TV
PV of FCF
PV of Terminal Value
Enterprise Value
+ Excess cash + ST investments
- Debt
Equity Value
Debt 2,616,419
Discounting: M(id) or E(nd of Year) M
117045398
2444319 2%
97010273 98%
99,454,592 100%
0
3130334
96,324,257
701,050
4,672,080 3,130,334
Financial Ratios Historical Analysis
2009 2010 2011
Profitability Ratios:
Gross Margin 32% 26% 20%
Mark Up 47% 34% 25%
Profit Margin 18% 13% 8%
Capital Employed 5,824,175 5,993,719 6,364,770
Return on Capital Employed 36% 24% 17%
Expenses to revenue 9% 10% 9%
Operating Expenses to Revenue Ratio 7% 8% 8%
Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio 2.405 2.622 1.703
Quick Ratio 1.883 2.015 0.729
Efficiency Ratios:
Non Current assets turnover 2.021 1.797 1.585
Trade Recieveables Period(Days) 26 17 23
Trades Payables Period (Days) 54 65 70
Inventory (Days) 39 64
Rate of Invetory 9.311 5.742
2018
Sept,30 Dec,31 March,31 June,30 Sept,30
2,018
Sept,30 Dec,31 March,31 June,30 Sept,30
2019
Dec,31 March,31 June,30 Sept,30 Dec,31
2,018 2,019
Dec,31 March,31 June,30 Sept,30 Dec,31
1500000 3437500
6,517 11,883 7,956 4,029 1033 10,793
566,358 938,078 1,041,977 1,003,706 813,378 809,516 817747
148,952 240,493 252,336 425,333 489453 387093
566358 938078 1197446 1256082 1073670 1238878 2808233 3835386
4,019 5,462
2,409,458 3,177,169 6,705,027 13,108,862 12,632,459 6844342 167,268
23,244 22,408 20,518 26,998 23,346 21,486 11947 10,423
-256,354 -1,145,329 -2,141,319 -1,161,536 130,696 -2,435,361 -5,172,488 -2,703,597
2019 2020
17685584 17,255,963
1,836,541 1,858,089
47593 38,818
99940 99,940
19669658 19252810
3395522 3,465,940
795061 494,535
87931 162,443
45212 13,248
235807 324,522
2602240 2,866,866
182587 56,521
302586 785,559
7646946 8169634
27316604 27422444
1374270 1,374,270
14725189 15,178,386
16099459 16552656
2187500 236,250
7915 46,456
351283 1,081,132
266878 359,643
2813576 1723481
3577440 4,185,436
10182 10,416
143867 33,590
4669202 4,902,750
2878 14,115
0 0
8,403,569 9,146,307
11217145 10869788
27316604 27422444
0 0
2019 2020
3,126,411 3,763,513
(593,350) -636,171
(996,115) 40,223
(133,181) -93,795
(282) 8,775
1,403,483 3,082,545
(953,141) -332,522
(376,497) -15,625
5,429 5,687
-540,000
-29,000
544,809
10,589 17,149
-1,313,620 -349,502
(914,996) -549,474
270,000
-3,437,500
(1,250,000)
(3,911) -11,894
-2,168,907 -3,728,868
(2,079,044) -995,825
(1,037,572) -3,116,616
-3,116,616 -4,112,441
Income statement
Revenue Growth (% Change)
Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue)
Gross Profit (% of Sales)
Finance Cost (% of Sales)
Depreciation (% of Revenues)
Depreciation & Amortization (% of PP&E Open Bal)
Income Tax Expense (% of total expenses)
Interest (% of Debt Open Bal)
Tax Rate (% of Earnings Before Tax)
Balance Sheet
Trade Receivable (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Trade & other Payables (Days)
Capital Expenditures ($000's)
Non-Current Liabilities/ Net Sales
Return on Assets