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35 - Summary - Forex. by Sir Nagendra Sahpdf
35 - Summary - Forex. by Sir Nagendra Sahpdf
Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Bid, Ask and Spread
3. Exchange rate quotation (One way quote & Two way quote)
4. Spot rate and forward rate
5. Swap point/Forward margin/Forward Spot differential.
6. Exchange margin
7. Direct quote & Indirect quote
8. How transaction takes place in FOREX?
9. Hedging:
- Forward cover
- Lead Payment
- Lagging
- Money (Cash) market operation
- Rupee roll over forward contract
- Currency option (Refer Derivative)
- Currency Future (Refer derivative)
10. IRPT (Interest rate parity theorem)
11. PPPT (Purchasing power parity theorem)/ Inflation rate parity theorem
12. Cross rate of foreign exchange
13. Arbitrage
14. Cancellation of forward contract
15. Modification in forward contract
16. Early delivery of currency.
17. Interest rate swap (Refer OTC derivative)
18. Nostro A/C and Vostro A/C
19. Maintaining Exchange position and Nostro A/C
20. Multinational Capital Budgeting (Refer Capital budgeting)
21. FOREX with other topic
Introduction
In this chapter we will study how to minimize the loss /risk which will arise due to the adverse
change in exchange rate of foreign currency. Normally, Payment will be receivable or payable at
some future date and exchange rate will not be same at that day. As a result loss/gain will arise.
The exchange rate is the relationship between two currencies at a given point of time.
For example: $1 = 46
One way quote
£ 1 = 70
$1 = 46 - 46.5
Two way quote
£ 1 = 70 - 70.5
Ask rate (Bank’s selling rate): Ask rate is the rate at which bank sells left hand currency.
Note: Ask rate will always be greater than bid rate (i.e. Ask rate > Bid rate)
Spread: The difference between Ask and Bid rates is called the spread.
How to apply two way quote rate, for converting one currency into other currency?
1. Identify amount payable or receivable?
For example: assume invoice amount is $ 1,00,000/- which will be payable in 3 month
time.
2. Choose applicable Bid or Ask rate
Take the given exchange rate and draw the following diagram and identify what will do
bank for left hand currency.
Bank
Rate: £ 1 = $ 1.50 – 1.55
Buy £ sale $
Here amount payable is $ 1,00,000/-, means customer have to buy $ from bank. We have
made diagram on the basis of our requirement. But we have to think, what will do bank
Important Note: If exchange rate is quoted in form “/€”, it, normally, means price of 1 € currency
in currency. But it is not always true. Sometime “/€” means pair of currency (It means either
per € or € per). You have to apply your common sense on the basis of strength of the currency.
Stronger currency have lower figure.
For example: 1. Rate: /€ 60.00 – 60.25. It means: € 1 = 60.00 – 60.25
2. Rate: /€ 0.0165 – 0.0175 It means: 1 = € 0.0165 – 0.0175
It doesn’t mean € 1 = 0.0165 – 0.0175
We know € is the stronger currency than . And stronger currency have lower figure. See example-1:
€ have lower figure and have greater figure. See example-2: have greater figure and € have
lower figure.
Example 3: Rate ( per €) 0.0165 – 0.0175
In this case you may solve question assuming:
(i) per € even rate is illogical, because rate is specifically written as per € and we know
that specific provision overrides general. or
(ii) € per on the basis of strength.
Both will get same mark in exam.
Strength wise currency list for some important currency: (strongest to weakest currency sequence):
1. Pound –GBP (£) 71
2. Euro-EUR (€) 61
3. Swiss Franc (CHF) 46
4. US Dollar-USD ($) 45
5. German Mark (DEM) 31
6. French Franc (FRF) 9
7. Indian Rupee-INR () 1
8. Japanese Yen-JPY (¥) 0.5
Spot Rate
Spot rate is the rate applicable for immediate settlement. In practice settlement actually takes place
within 2 business day.
Forward Rate:
Forward rate is the rate contracted today for future settlement. Forward rate are usually quoted
for fixed period of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days from the date of contract.
Forward premium & Discount:
If the currency is costlier in future as compare to spot it is said to be at a premium.
If the currency is cheaper in future as compare to spot it is said to be at a discount.
How to calculate forward rate when forward premium & Discount given?
Add to spot rate to arrive forward rate. Deduct from spot rate to arrive forward rate.
Example 1: Spot Rate $1 = 40.4800 / 4900 Example1: Spot rate $1 = 40. 4800 / 4900
Forward Premium .1100 / .1300 (increasing trend) Forward premium .1255 / .1200 (decreasing trend)
Solution: Forward Rate: 40.4800 / 40.4900 Solution: Forward Rate: 40.4800 / 40.4900
+ .1100 + .1300 (-) .1255 (-) .1200
40.5900 40.6200 40.3545 40.3700
i.e. Forward rate: $ 1 = 40.5900 / 40.6200 i.e. Forward rate: $ 1 = 40.3545 / 40.3700
Solution: Forward Rate: 52.60 / 52.70 Solution: Forward Rate: 52.60 / 52.70
+ . 20 + . 70 (-) .30 (-) .25
52.80 53.40 52.30 52.45
i.e. Forward rate: $ 1 = 52.80 / 53.40 i.e. Forward rate: $ 1 = 52.30 / 52.45
Notes for example-2: The point “70” given in spot rate is not swap point because it is not the difference in
forward rate and spot rate. It is simply the quotation method as we quote telephone No 24321152/53 it
means we are quoting two telephone no. (1) 24321152 and (2) 24321153. However point given in 3 month
forward is not quotation method like telephone no. it is difference in forward rate and spot rate.
Exchange margin
Exchange margin is the extra amount or percentage charged by the bank over and above the rate
quoted by bank.
Deduct margin from buying rate to get Add margin to selling rate to get desired
desired exchange rate. Hence, exchange rate. Hence,
Actual buying rate = Bid rate (1-exchange margin) Actual selling rate = Ask rate (1+exchange margin)
Example: Given rate $1 = . 40.4800 / 40.4900 Example: Given rate $1 = . 40.8300 / 40.8650
Margin 0.08% for Buying rate Margin .25% for selling rate
Solution: Solution:
Desired buying rate $1=40.4800 (1-0.0008) Desired selling rate $1 = 40.8650 (1+0.0025)
= . 40.4476 = . 40.9672
Logic behind addition or deduction: Everyone wants to buy at low rate and wants to sell at high
rate. Hence deduct margin from buying rate to arrive at low rate and add margin to selling rate
to arrive at high rate.
Indirect quote: 1 = / i.e. 1 = 0.0219 / 0.0222 (Bid rate < Ask rate)
Export to UK co.
1
Invoice Amount:
Option A: $ 10,000
USA Company($) Option B: £ 5,000 UK Company (£)
Inflow at 3 Month Option C: € 7,000 Outflow at 3 Month
(Credit period 3M)
2B 2A
4B 4A 3
UK co. make payment at 3 month
$ £/€ time in ‘$’, ‘£’ or in ‘€’. $/€ £
In this case: Step 2A and 2B is not In this case: Step 4A and 4B is not
applicable. applicable
A: When invoice is in “$”: chain in steps, made in figure 12A2B3. (at end, USA co. get money in $)
B: When invoice is in “£”: chain in steps, made in figure 134A4B. (at end, USA co. get money in $)
C: When Invoice is in ‘€’: Risk lies on both UK co. and USA co. because both companies have to convert one
currency into other. UK co convert ‘£’ into ‘€’ and USA co convert ‘€’ into ‘$’. In this case all steps (i.e. 2A, 2B,
4A, 4B) are applicable.
Analysis for USA co: when invoice is in home currency ($) No risk on USA co. No need to hedge foreign
currency receipt and hence no need to study FOREX.
Analysis for UK co: when invoice is in home currency (£) No risk on UK co. No need to hedge foreign
currency receipt and hence no need to study FOREX.
Conclusion: If question ask for any measures of hedging, it mean the currency payable or receivable is always
foreign currency. Hence do not get confused to recognize which currency is foreign currency and which
currency is home currency. Just identify the currency in which invoice is being made (i.e. currency in
which amount payable or receivable), and conclude that invoice currency is always foreign currency.
On basis of this currency identify the company who has to take corrective action to minimize loss.
At due date convert one currency into other currency at the agreed rate the rate at which forward contract is made,
doesn’t matter what is the actual rate on due date.
For calculation of loss/gain think if Mr. XYZ not taken forward contract then at which rate he buy $?
He will buy $ (think $ is apple) @ 45.5 but due to forward contract he will buy $ @ 45 (at lower rate)
hence he will gain 1,00,000 (45.5 – 45) = 50,000/-
Lead Payment
Lead payment is a payment as on today for a transaction forgetting the credit period given by
supplier. Importer makes the lead payment when he feels that the loss due to currency fluctuation
will become higher than that of the benefit which he will get due to time value of money.
Notes: We know comparison can never be done between rickshaw wale and chartered accountant. Similarly,
Lead payment can never be comparable with Forward cover because under lead payment outflow
become today and under forward cover outflow become at some future date.
Hence, for making lead payment comparable with forward cover we make payment today taking loan
(for the period equal to forward cover) so that the outflow become at the time of repayment of loan.
Export to USA
Invoice for
$ 10,000/-
Indian Company Credit period 3M USA Company
Inflow at 3 Month Outflow at 3 Month
1
3 4
2
1
$
1. Borrow less amount today from the USA bank for 3 month at borrowing rate of USA.
2. Borrowing amount with interest will become Invoice amount at 3 month time which will pay
by USA company to USA Bank.
Hence, Amount receivable under money market operation at 3 month time is equal to 4,03,932/-
3. Concept: Why borrowed money from foreign bank to be deposit in home country bank? Why
not keep with him self today?
4. If we not deposit money in home country bank today, then the inflow become today’s time
and it is not comparable with forward contract or with other hedging option. Hence deposit
today in home country bank by taking loan in foreign currency.
Invoice for
$ 10,000/-
Indian Company Credit period 3M USA Company
Outflow at 3 Month Inflow at 3 Month
1
3 4
2
1
$
5. Deposit less amount today in the USA bank for 3 month at deposit rate of USA.
8. Deposit amount with interest will become Invoice amount at 3 month time which will receive
by USA company from USA Bank.
Hence, Amount payable under money market operation at 3 month time is equal to 4,17,063/-
Concept: Why borrow money from home country bank to deposit fewer amounts in foreign bank?
Why not from own pocket at today time?
If we not borrow money from home country bank, then the outflow become today’s time
and it is not comparable with forward contract or with other hedging option. Hence deposit
today by taking loan.
If FR, SR and Interest rate of both countries are based on IRPT then arbitrage gain (risk free profit) is
not possible.
The currency with the Higher Interest Rates will sell at a discount in the forward market against
a currency with the lower interest rate.
Similarly currency with lower interest rate will sell at a premium in the forward market against
the currency with the higher interest rate
(ii)
Arbitrage
Arbitrage is an act to earn risk free profit. The act may be:
(i) Sale at high rate & purchase at low rate; (ii) borrowing at low rate & investing at high rate
Arbitrage is not possible in Forex market if ‘Exchange rates’ and ‘interest rates’ are based on
IRPT.
Arbitrage
Short cut for finding the countries to be invested or to be borrowed when one way quote is
given (For Cover interest arbitrage)
Situation - I
Interest rate differential
= Int. rate of country ‘A’ (say 10%) – Int. rate of Country ‘B’ (say 4%) = 6%
Because this rate is high Because this rate is low Why not 4%?
Hence for arbitrage gain take borrowing from country ‘B’ and invest in country ‘A’.
Situation-II
Interest rate differential
= Int. rate of country ‘A’ (say 8%) – Int. rate of country ‘B’ (say 5%) = 3%
Because this rate is low Because this rate is high Why not 4%?
Hence for arbitrage gain take borrowing from country ‘A’ and invest in country ‘B’.
Date
A B C D E
Today before due date
B
Due date After due date
B
Due date + 15 days
B
Situation-1: Customer approaches to cancel forward contract before due date (on date ‘B’):
Bank enters sale contract, if original contract was for purchase (i.e. opposite contract), OR
Bank enters Purchase contract if original contract was for Sale (i.e. opposite contract),
Gain/Loss to bank = Sale value under original contract – Purchase value under opposite contract
OR,
= sale value under opposite contract – Purchase value under original contract
Situation-2: Customer approaches to cancel forward contract on due date (i.e. on date ‘C’):
To cancel forward contract on date ‘C’, bank enters opposite contract at spot rate on date
‘C’.
Bank’s gain Customer’s gain
Gain/Loss to both parties = same as above situation - ‘1’
Situation-3: Customer approaches to cancel forward contract after due date (i.e. on date ‘D’):
Bank enters opposite contract at spot rate on date ‘D’.
Situation-II:
Some time customer enters forward contract to buy/sale the foreign currency but due to some
reason (like defective goods) later on customer want to extend contract for some further period. What he
will do.
Solution:
- Cancel earlier forward contract by entering opposite contract.
- Make fresh forward contract for the desired period.
3 M FR 40.80 - 41.89
40 1.28
Pay today as per earlier contract rate pay at due date with interest
i.e. 40 5,00,000 = 200 lakh Reducing swap charges
(i) Bank will collect swap charges with reference to spot purchase & forward sale.
Swap charges = (forward sale – spot purchase) 5,00,000
= (41.89 – 41.28) 5,00,000 = 3,05,000
At due date payment with interest reducing swap charges is equal to:
(1.28 5,00,000) - 3,05,000 = 3,47,800
Customer will get two payment one at 3 month time 200 lakh and one at 6 month time 3,47,800
[Refer Question No. -51]
When whole amount in foreign currency is receivable or payable at the time more than 6 month.
Amt receivable/Payable
$1,00,000 at 2Y
0Y 6m 1Y 1.5 Y 2Y
1 2 3 4
5
1. Originally enter 6m forward contract @ 6m FR on 0 Y to sell/buy $1,00,000/-
3. At 1Y, cancel forward contract by entering opposite contract (because payment not receivable/payable at 1Y)
@ SR on 1 Year.
- Calculate amount receivable/payable due to cancelation.
- Again enter 6m forward contract @ 6m FR on 1 Y to sell/Buy $ 1,00,000/-
4. At 1.5Y, cancel forward contract by entering opposite contract (because payment not receivable/payable at 1.5Y)
@ SR on 1.5 Year.
- Calculate amount receivable/payable due to cancelation.
- Again enter 6m forward contract @ 6m FR on 1.5 Y to sell/Buy $ 1,00,000/-
Option – 2:
Total amount receivable/payable under Rupee roll over at future’s money term i.e. after 2Y:
Amt at 6m Amt at 1Y Amt at 1.5Y Amt at 2Y
Future value of receivable/payable = + + +
(1+PIR)3 (1+PIR)2 (1+PIR)1 (1+PIR)0
Vostro A/C: Vostro A/C is an account maintained by a foreign bank in India with Indian bank in
Rupee currency. For example account of London bank in India with SBI in Rupee () Currency.
Exchange position: Exchange position (for CHF currency) of an Indian bank/dealer will affect by:
- Purchase/sale of foreign currency, (the purchase/sale of currency may be spot or forward)
- Issue/cancellation of demand draft,
- Purchase/sale of Bills receivable,
- Remittance of foreign currency [Remember that Indian bank do not remit foreign currency (say CHF) in Nostro account from
India. All receipt in Swiss franc (CHF) and all payment/remittances in CHF will be made through Nostro account maintained with Switzer land
bank]
Cash Position (Nostro A/C): Nostro A/C of an Indian bank/dealer maintained with Switzerland bank
will affect by:
- Spot Purchase/Sale of foreign currency (CHF) (Forward Purchase/Sale of CHF do not affect Nostro A/C because
there is no delivery of currency as on today)
- Receipt/payment in CHF.
Note: Spot purchase/Sales of CHF affects both exchange position as well as Nostro A/C (Cash Position).
However, forward purchase/sale affects only the exchange position.
[Refer Question No – 44]
Lagging:
Lagging means delaying the payment beyond the due date allowed by supplier.
Example: Indian importer has to make payment for $ 5,000 at 3 month time to US supplier. If
payment is delayed, supplier charges interest @ 6% p.a.
3 month forward rate: 1$ = 45.30- 45.36
6 month forward rate: 1$ = 43.20-43.50
Indian company is considering the lagging if it is beneficial. Cost of capital of Indian company is 12%.
2,20,762.5
= 2,14,332
Outflow under lagging will be 214332 and under normal credit period will be 2,26,800.
Hence lagging is beneficial for importer.