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PII: S2210-6707(20)30857-X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102641
Reference: SCS 102641
Please cite this article as: Gandini A, Quesada L, Prieto I, Garmendia L, Climate change risk
assessment: a holistic multi-stakeholder methodology for the sustainable development of
cities, Sustainable Cities and Society (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102641
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a
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Parque Tecnológico
de Bizkaia, Astondo Bidea, Edificio 700 (48160) Derio. Spain.
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alessandra.gandini@tecnalia.com
inaki.prieto@tecnalia.com
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, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, School of Engineering in Bilbao,
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Mechanical Engineering Department, Building I, Plaza Ingeniero Torres Quevedo s/n
(48013) Bilbao. Spain.
laura.quesada@ehu.eus
leire.garmendia@ehu.eus
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1
Corresponding author, Tel.: +34 946017333
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Highlights
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Abstract
Cities are at risk due to global climate change, increasing both the frequency and the intensity of storms
and extreme precipitation, sea-level rise, and other extreme weather events. Disaster risk reduction and
adaptation to climate change should include a holistic and multi-scale perspective, to address the
challenges of sustainable urban development and the conservation of the cultural value of our cities. In
this research, an integral multi-stakeholder methodological approach is presented for risk assessment,
supported by a data-collection and analysis strategy and a multi-scale urban model based on CityGML. A
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method of sampling buildings is presented together with the necessary data analysis, in order to perform
the analysis at city scale. The methodology is implemented in Donostia- San Sebastián (northern Spain), a
city located alongside a river estuary on the coastline. A sample of 2,262 buildings are analyzed with
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varied characteristics at risk of extreme precipitation and/or storm surges and sea-level rise. The results
demonstrated the effectiveness of the methodology at generating a unique risk index through a balance
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between the resources for data collection and the accuracy of the results, supported by a graphical 3D
representation to facilitate results interpretation, and the subsequent evidence-based decision-making for
prioritizing sustainable interventions.
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Keywords: risk assessment, sample buildings, urban modelling, floods, MIVES, CityGML.
1. Introduction
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The scientific community has accredited future scenarios in which the average mean global
temperature will have increased between 3.2 and 4ºC by 2100, based on the current policy and the no
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policy scenario, respectively, global sea-level rise between 0.09 and 0.88 meters and hydrological cycles
leading to more frequent rainfall and local storm surges [1-4]. Flooding, which depends on precipitation
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volumes, intensity, timing, river conditions and drainage basins, is the most frequent natural disaster with
the highest economic impact worldwide. Europe suffered over 440 destructive floods between 1998 and
2019, affecting over 7.2 million people, causing 2,115 fatalities, with direct economic losses of over €106
billion [5]. The world’s largest reinsurance company, Munich Re, reported that the number of destructive
floods across Europe resulting in insurance payouts has more than doubled since 1980, following a
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Aimed at improving flood protection by reducing its negative consequences and associated risks,
the European Commission agreed on the first coordinated action at EU level [6] and, according to the
fifth Water Framework Directive Implementation Report, all Member States have approved their Flood
Risk Management Plans (FRMPs), except from the FRMPs of the Canary Islands (Spain) [7].
As opposed to traditional methods that have focused on hazard limitation [8], current procedures
for successful flood management in Member States, developed in response to EU Directive [6], apply
comprehensive risk-based models aimed at minimizing both the hazard and its consequences.
Furthermore, as a result of the international political agenda seeking integrated approaches, European
cities are introducing methodologies that unify disaster mitigation and adaptation solutions, aimed at
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Risks will increase for cities alongside rivers and on the coastline, as a consequence of sea level
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rise and heavy rainfall [2, 10]. Furthermore, uncontrolled and rapid urbanization in cities has raised the
susceptibility of cities to climate change disaster and to both spatial and social fragmentation. Successful
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adaption of cities can be ensured, if adaptation strategies are introduced in urban planning, land-use
management, and regulatory frameworks [11-17]. Planners should consider a risk-based design [18-20] to
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reduce exposure to weather-related risk in urban areas through adequate land-use management and
building standards [21-22]. Urban master plans can also include climate risks and vulnerability
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An integral approach towards risk assessment implies an assessment of the particularities of all
city districts, as well as the singularities of historic city centres that are at the origin of city settlements.
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Nevertheless, heritage is not commonly considered within global urban approaches, although it is within
the scope of certain strategies [23-26]. The most recent studies have also been on the physical parameters
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of buildings in the vulnerability and the risk assessment methodologies [27-33]. Hence, comprehensive
methodologies that combine physical, socio-economic and cultural parameters still need to be developed.
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The over-arching objective is to promote resilient and adaptive responses, aimed at responding to climate
change and promoting sustainable development at city scale from a multidisciplinary perspective rather
than as separate planning initiatives (climate change, urban planning and conservation policies) [34-38].
Risk assessment, requires the refinement of data-collection methods and the processing of large
volumes of data [39-41]. However, policy-making in the field of climate change, urban planning, and the
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different backgrounds, interests, and values. This multi-stakeholder context influences the definition of
models [42]. Hence, it is mandatory to understand the needs of each stakeholder, in order to provide data
models that can promote and assist stakeholder coordination and decision-making for sustainable
development that is inclusive of all (climate change, urban planning and conservation) perspectives [43].
Urban dynamic models are simplified digital environments that identify and highlight essential
features by moving from theoretical to testable models for the analysis of the consequences of the
changes that are likely to affect cities [44-47] and they have to be selected on the basis of the final needs
or decisions to be taken.
There are few available methodologies that are used to assess flood damage both before and after
an event: FLEMO - Flood Loss Estimation MOdel [48] developed for the commercial sector, HAZUS-
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HAZards United States [49] for earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and floods, and HOWAD- Flood
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Damage Simulation Model [50] that includes remote sensing and digital image processing. The last two
models are used to assess financial and physical damage before an event through an object-based
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approach with high resolution Geographical Information System (GIS) technology. However, these
methods cannot be replicated in large-scale analyses, due to the difficulties over accessing and gathering
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large amounts of data and the high consumption of both time and resources that are required for damage
assessment fieldwork.
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There is the persistent challenge of balancing the input data and the resources that may be
necessary and the debate continues over the identification of proper scales for effective decision-making
and planning [51]. A combination of scales is usually required, both on a fine scale at the level of
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individual buildings and on a large scale for city-wide analysis [52]. In addition, there is still the
persistent challenge of integrating both quantitative and qualitative information within a single data model
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[53]. Low cost or free data are essential to produce cost-effective city models. Remote imagery and data
from the land register (cadastre) are the most complete sources, which can in some cases be supplemented
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with usually non-homogeneous and irregular data, provided through public initiatives (e.g.,
OpenStreetMap). In contrast, international data standardization and harmonization initiatives (e.g., the
Integrated Research on Disaster Risk –IRDR- and the International Disaster Database EM-DAT) only
partially respond to the risk assessment in terms of community needs. Reliable information on the
existing building stock is frequently incomplete or missing and efforts should be directed towards
accessing existing data, which may often be unavailable or restricted. Other relevant sources of advanced
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information on the building stock can be found in the INSPIRE Directive and at the national housing
censuses through the Eurostat Census Hub at regional level (NUTS 2), although they are not completely
Overall, climate-change risk assessment for sustainable development and urban adaptation
planning needs to harness responsibilities and capacities fragmented across departments and should
include the multi-stakeholder perspective, highlighting the importance of coordinated action. Since
regional benefits and the costs of climate policy need to be considered [54], efficient and representative
urban models are fundamental. They should achieve a balance between accuracy and the necessary
resources and should promote sustainable development through the effective identification of risks that
will support subsequent decision making on sustainable adaptive interventions to reduce and face climate
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change impacts. This urban model should be accompanied by a methodology that helps to organize and to
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assess data in an efficient, cost-effective, and objective manner [55].
vulnerabilities and risks in the building stock, providing support for subsequent decision-making on
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adaptation actions that will lead to the conservation of the built environment, and the promotion of
sustainable cities and societies through low environmental impact and effective and resilient projected
interventions.
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The risk assessment methodology includes a multi-scalar approach that connects the operational
scale (building scale) with the urban scale through the sample building concept and a multi-disciplinary
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approach covering climate change, urban planning, and conservation frameworks. The methodology
considers singularities of all city districts, including historic areas in order to avoid any type of
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The Integrated Value Model for Sustainable Assessment (Spanish acronym MIVES)
methodology, based on a multi-criteria approach, is employed for risk calculation. The outcome is an
objective risk index that helps to establish priorities for the implementation of adaptative solutions.
A data model based on CityGML was also employed as its use supports the methodology by
linking hazard, exposure, and vulnerability parameters at city scale, and it can structure and process the
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information with different scales, dates and sources in an effective and representative manner (see Figure
1). It also ensures interoperability with other tools used in urban planning as it is a standard defined by the
Vulnerability assessment is the first step to address for future assessments of climate change risk.
In line with this approach, [56] is the baseline for the current research work to which specific
developments related to exposure and hazard parameters will be added within a holistic and multi-
The outcomes of the research are validated in a case study of Donostia-San Sebastián, located on
the coastline in the North of Spain, also used in the first part of the research work [56]. However, the
current research uses an extended case-study area that includes six districts and permits, on the one hand,
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the validation of the vulnerability-assessment methodology within a larger area and, on the other, the
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validation of the holistic risk-assessment methodology.
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The urban modelling strategy is aimed at developing a cost-effective model, which will integrate
both geometric and semantic data obtained from public data sources that will provide 3D visualization to
facilitate the understanding of outputs even for non-expert end-users. The model will ensure public access
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to data and interoperability with other systems or tools used in urban planning as well as an iterative
CityGML is a multiscale data model format somewhere in between GIS and BIM (Building
Information Modelling). It is an XML-based open-data model capable of exchanging and storing virtual
3D city models supplied by the OGC and ISO TC211. These models can establish classes and relations
between the topographic objects at different scales (city, region) and geometric, semantic, and topological
CityGML specifies five levels of detail (LoD) [58-60]. LoD0 is a two-and-a-half dimensional
Digital Terrain Model, over which a map or an aerial image can be superimposed. LoD1 is a blocks
model where buildings are presented without textures or roofs, while LoD2 represents textures, roofs and
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vegetation objects. LoD3 goes beyond representing architectural models through its exhaustive
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representation of roof and wall structures, balconies, bay windows, and projections and high-resolution
textures that can be allocated to structures. Finally, LoD4 adds interior elements of the buildings (doors,
specific disaster types such as indoor fire events [62-63] while flood analysis has usually been undertaken
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in GIS, considering digital terrain models [64-65]. However, the analysis of the propagation and the
impact of flooding can be improved with the help of 3D models [66]. The scope of some studies was to
represent flood depth and its extension within urban areas, disregarding damage to buildings [67-68].
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Recent studies use 3D models to evaluate flood-related damage and risk at a micro-scale, which includes
building components, through the integration of GIS and BIM [69-70]. Hence, the challenges in this
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research work are to combine data on floods and buildings from different sources and in different formats
The development of urban 3D models based on the OGC CityGML standard integrates the scales
at both city and building levels within the same model with added geometric and semantic data. A model
with these characteristics can be used in numerous applications from which various agents, whether urban
planners or citizens, among others, could benefit. There are several advantages to the collaborative
creation and editing of these models within urban management processes; facilitating work on the always
up-to-date single model and parallel work. The 3D component facilitates the representation of the
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complete information and is easily understood by any user. These models facilitate the cooperation of
experts in different areas, contributing their knowledge to the generation of a unique model. [3, 71-73] In
addition to that, the widespread use of CityGML throughout Europe is another of its advantages, for
example most German cities have a CityGML model at least at its lowest level of detail [74]
In this research, the generation of the geometry of the 3D city model (see Figure 2) was
completed through a semi-automatic process collecting data from the land registry, which contains the
geometry of building footprints, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) that represents the Digital Surface
Model, and the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) that represents 3D terrestrial zone topography. The first
step was the data pre-processing stage, to eliminate duplicated and erroneous data, as well as data outside
the area of interest. Subsequently, the height and the altitudes of the buildings were obtained from LIDAR
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and DTM data to generate the 3D model of the buildings, and to identify their height, position, and
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altitude [75]. As a result, a model with different levels of detail was obtained: LoD0 for the buildings
footprints in 2D, LoD1 for representing buildings in 3D boxes, and LoD2 for generating building façades,
Having generated the geometric data, the semantic data were added to the model. For this
purpose, the CityGML data model was extended to specific attributes of the application domain. Each
attribute had to be referenced to the corresponding element and then information was automatically added
to the 3D urban model through the semanticization process, and information in .xls or .shp file formats
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The urban model generation process has to consume few resources, so available and easily
accessible data must be used. The unit of a lot was therefore used, i.e., a terrain of known boundaries
ascribed to one or multiple owners. Instead of the building unit, the lot unit was selected, normally of
single building size, but can include more than a doorway, because the information on public databases
Hence, the urban model for risk assessment will include necessary geometric and semantic data
to undertake the risk-assessment methodology at building level. The challenge arises when seeking a
compromise between the micro-scale (individual elements) at which buildings may be characterized at a
local level and the macro-scale (city level). This compromise is evident in the representation of the city
according to a statistical distribution of building properties within a specific area, for vulnerability and
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risk assessment, starting with sample buildings (explained in the following section) and extrapolating
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their properties to the whole area.
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A statistical approach may be employed on a city scale for analyzing a large and varied building
stock. In this approach, the stock is described by means of sample buildings or archetypes. Sample
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buildings represent buildings that include data obtained through measurements while Archetypal
buildings refer to buildings with approximate statistical descriptors. Thus, real unique buildings or a
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theoretical standardized building can both be used [76-79]. Moreover, the extreme heterogeneity of the
building stock usually requires an initial categorization process where the stock is divided into categories.
Sample buildings work as input data for the model, with which a wide variety of buildings may
be considered, although a large database is necessary. Such data can also be useful to detect high priority
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areas within the city. The aim is to identify a limited number of sample buildings, but which represent the
majority of the building stock in the city [80], aware of data accessibility constraints. These samples
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should represent the important parameters in the risk analysis, such as the constructive characteristics,
socio-economic aspects, and cultural value. Moreover, data should be (semi-) automatically collected to
build a low-cost model. Geometric data are collected from the model and semantic data from public
information systems.
A central critical step is the identification of parameters to generate categories. The configuration
of parameters depends on the characteristics of the city and their value concentration, with the objective
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of finding the right balance between the number of categories, and both the representativeness and the
Following the identification of categories, the most representative ones were selected through the
establishment of a minimum threshold and the least representative were discarded. The suitable number
of categories and the percentages of building stock they represent will depend on the size and
homogeneity of the city. An optimum balance between both should be achieved, taking into account that
a minimum threshold of between 2% and 5% generally delivers good results [53, 81]. For this research, a
threshold of 2% was selected, as it resulted in a manageable number of categories (15) and good building
The building stock was categorized in accordance with the following six parameters, which were
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determined on the basis of the final goal of the analysis, the identification of flood-risk levels. The data
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with the parameters of each sample building were obtained through municipal databases, the use of
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Year of construction: to gather an outline of the construction techniques as they commonly
operating, that will depend on its use. A building with fundamental use requires a prioritization
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of the intervention.
Existence of a (semi-)basement: implying greater vulnerability of the buildings as they can easily
Level of protection: directly influencing the selection of adaptation solutions and combined with
the construction year, the cultural value of the building can be determined.
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Number of dwellings: the vulnerability decreases as the intervention capacity increases with the
Socio-economic status: the economic capacity of the owners increases the intervention capacity
A risk assessment tool was developed in this research for cities to cope with floods and extreme
precipitation events. It will include a multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approach that will integrate the
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operational building level and strategic urban planning, facilitating decision-making processes through
concept of climate-change-related risk assessment. According to the Fifth Synthesis Report (AR5) [4],
risk is defined as the “probability or likelihood of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by
the impacts if these events or trends occur”. Hence, flood risk considers the factors of exposure to hazard
impact and vulnerability of an asset, through the binomial sensitivity and adaptive capacity, to rank the
risk and to support the decision-making for prioritizing the interventions of adaptive strategies, as shown
in Figure 1.
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5.1. MIVES methodology
MIVES sets out an operative methodology to help decision-makers when deciding upon adaptive
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interventions for the areas of the city at highest risk. MIVES was chosen as the risk-calculation
methodology, due to its multi-criteria perspective, with which different type of indicators may be
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compared, and its objectivity, because the evaluation model was defined prior to the generation of the
alternatives. MIVES was developed by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC), Tecnalia, the
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University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) and University of A Coruña (UDC). Its flexibility and
The first step in the MIVES methodology is the definition of a requirements tree with which the
information may be organized into a hierarchic structure, usually up to three levels. The first and second
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level identify the requirements and criteria, respectively, which represent general and qualitative aspects.
The third level identifies the indicators that are specific and measurable parameters.
Indicators are evaluated by value functions that, depending on the nature of each indicator, will
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follow a concave, a convex, a linear or an S-shaped function with a value that is always between 0 and 1
(see Figure 3) [92]. The relevance of the different parameters of the multi-criteria analysis may differ, so
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their relative importance is defined afterwards, according to the weights assigned to the parameters at the
same level. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) helps to define the relative importance of the
parameters by means of a pair-wise comparison completed with a comparison matrix [93-94]. These
matrix calculations, are based on their specific vectors (eigenvector of weights) and the ratio of
consistency (eigenvalue) [88]. In this research, the evaluation was in the hands of a "panel of experts" that
was composed of specialists (professionals and researchers and some of them trained in MIVES
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methodology) in the architectural, engineering, and conservation fields. Their working of experience in
the design, execution and maintenance of buildings, conservation and risk management in constructions
works as a forum for debate to identify and to assess requirements, criteria, and indicators.
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Figure 3. MIVES requirement tree and evaluation of alternatives. Source: Adapted from [84]
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The requirements tree developed for the risk assessment was defined by three requirements,
sensitiveness and adaptive capacity, which compose the vulnerability index, and exposure. These
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requirements were divided into 9 criteria and 19 indicators for evaluation. As previously mentioned, the
vulnerability analysis was presented in [56] and the risk assessment was completed with the evaluation of
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the exposure requirement. Vulnerability and risk assessment were performed in separate ways, because
vulnerability reflects the intrinsic properties of the building, while exposure is associated with the
probability of the impact of the hazard. In a climate change scenario, a scenario of uncertainty, the
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possibility of changing exposure indicators is needed. Moreover, risk assessment can be carried out in
various climate change scenarios over different time scales (from near future to century), while the
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The exposure requirement is related to the building location that might be impacted by an event
and the criterion refers to the building location and its surrounding urban area. Exposure indicators, in the
same way as vulnerability indicators, are evaluated according to the value function method, in order to
calculate the final risk index. The difference is that exposure will affect each building in different ways,
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so the sample building method is not used, in contrast with the vulnerability assessment. In total, five
indicators related to exposure were calculated by a value function or pair-wise comparison through AHP.
Proximity to coast/river (Figure 4A) indicates the exposure of the building to water penetration.
The value increases with the proximity of the building to a coastline or a river. Buildings situated closer
than 25 meters to the coastline/river were assigned a value of 1 and the value decreased as the distance to
coastline/river increased. The values for each alternative were calculated through the demarcation of a
buffer zone along the coastline/river estuary at varied distances (25, 50, 75, 100, 150 and 200 meters).
The corresponding buffer zone for each building was the intersection between the buffer zone and the
building.
The soil type (Figure 4B) sub-foundation of the building affects the exposure value, as the
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performance of the building can vary in the presence of water. The maximum value (1) was given to soils
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that can generate problems in case of intense rainfall or floods and the minimum value (0) was assigned
to soils that can to some extent retain their stability in the presence of water. The most common
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alternatives were considered: rock, sand, clay, backfill, and silts, according to the classification provided
by National geological institutions. The type of soil on which a building is located can be obtained by the
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intersection of the geological map and the building layer.
The presence of green areas (Figure 4C) is directly related to the capacity to absorb excess
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rainwater. The maximum value was assigned to urbanized areas (with no green areas) that prevent the
absorption of water and that increase the ground waterproofing (e.g., asphalt). The indicator was
evaluated by circumscribing a radius of 50 meters around the building and then the percentage of green
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area within the circle was calculated. Urbanized areas, without green areas, obtained the maximum value
(1), a value that decreased to a minimum (0) with the increase in the percentage of green areas.
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Identification of flooding areas was based on flooding maps with a 500-year return period
developed in 2013, according to the procedure established in Directive 2007/60/EC. This binary indicator
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means that if the building is located in a flood zone, the maximum value is assigned.
The storm surge and sea-level rise indicator represents the height of water in the area due to the
aforementioned parameters. Five categories were created to group possible heights (0-2 meters, 2-4
meters, 4-6 meters, and over 6 meters). Final exposure was calculated based on the number of points
included in each category within a 10-meter radius around the building. The overall value of the indicator
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was calculated by the sum of all points in each category. The highest value (1) went to buildings with the
highest exposure.
Once the value functions are defined, the next step in the MIVES methodology was the
definition of the weight for each indicator, criterion and requirement, to establish their relative importance
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With respect to indicators within the exposure criteria, the "panel of experts" estimated that the
most important indicator was the location of the building in the flooding zone while the least important
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was the proximity to the coastline/river since the key aspect is the land height. The existence of green
areas and the soil type are considered to be of equal importance, but of a little less importance than the
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location in a flooding area. When the risk provoked by sea-level rise and storm surge was analyzed, the
flooding area indicator was replaced by its corresponding indicator, which took the same weight (see
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Figure 5left).
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Figure 5. Pair-wise comparison of exposure indicators (left) and risk requirements (right).
Finally, a weight was assigned to the three requirements that compose the risk requirement.
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According to the Panel of Experts, vulnerability and exposure were of the same importance and, within
vulnerability, sensitiveness and adaptive capacity were also given the same weight, in line with [56] (see
Figure 5right).
Figure 6 represents the tree corresponding to the exposure requirement, summarizing the weight
of each indicator. The “Panel of Experts” made any final adjustments to the values. In the case of the
exposure criteria, as it is a unique parameter, a value of 1 was assigned. The final requirement tree, at its
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three levels (requirements, criteria and indicators), considering both vulnerability assessment and
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Figure 6. Value of the exposure requirement, criterion and indicators
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5.2. Final risk index
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As represented in Figure 3, MIVES provides the final risk index from the sum of all the
multiplications between the indicator value and weight, multiplied by the criteria weight. The sum of all
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the criteria is finally multiplied by the requirement weight. The final risk index of each alternative should
be provided by the sum of all sensitiveness and exposure requirement values minus the adaptive capacity
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requirement value, as the first two aspects are evaluated in a negative way (a higher index refers to a
building that is more vulnerable and more exposed than others) and the latter is calculated in a positive
way (the higher index represents buildings with higher adaptive capacity).
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Nevertheless, as the relation between sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure was not linear,
in line with the vulnerability assessment, alternative assessment was employed to calculate the final risk
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index. This alternative assessment followed the approach broadly used in the climate change framework,
based on the work of Kleinfelder [95]. Table 1 provides a vulnerability index according to [56] and then
the resulting value as shown in Table 2, so as to determine five risk levels (R0 is the least risk and R4 the
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Table 1. Levels of sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. [56]
SENSITIVITY
S0 S1 S2 S3 S4
S0≤0.10 0.10<S1≤0.40 0.40<S2≤0.60 0.60<S3≤0.90 0.90<S4≤1.00
AC0
V2 V3 V4 V5 V5
AC0≤0.33
CAPACITY
ADAPTIVE
AC1
V1 V1 V2 V3 V4
0.33<AC1≤0.75
AC2
V0 V0 V0 V1 V2
0.75<AC2≤1.00
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VULNERABILITY
V0 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5
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E0
EXPOSURE
R0 R1 R1 R2 R2 R3
E0≤0.40
E1
R1 R2 R2 R3 R3 R4
0.40<E1≤1.00 -p
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6. The case study of Donostia-San Sebastián
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187,000 inhabitants, situated on the northern coast of Spain, near the French border. The city is aware of
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Donostia-San Sebastián is mainly exposed to sea-level rise and the extreme wave events, which
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have already caused significant damage and economic loss to the city. According to the scenarios
developed in 2013, the sea-level rise scenario has worsened since 2007, moving from a range of 18-59 cm
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to 26-82 cm. Additionally, the results of the risk assessment along the coastline of Gipuzkoa [97] already
indicated, within a moderate scenario, the risk of flooding in urban areas and sea-level and groundwater
rise, among others. If no measures are taken, the risks may even increase.
The risk-assessment methodology was implemented in an area formed by six districts (Alde
Zaharra/Old Quarter, Centre, Gros, Egia, Amara and Loiola) located near the boundaries of the Urumea
river and the coastline, which comprises 2,262 buildings (see Figure 7). Each district has its own
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particular characteristics, some districts are of an historical nature, others include constructions that are
more modern. Hence, the current study extends and validates previous vulnerability assessments [56] as
well as implementing the risk-assessment methodology in a larger and more representative area of the
city.
The geometry of the city was first defined and then the semantic properties were introduced in
CityGML for the 3D modelling of the city. Since one of the requirements of the tool is to consume few
resources and use available and accessible information, semantic data related to the lot unit were
introduced. As previously explained, public sources usually provide information at lot level, which
includes a single building, but it can contain more than one doorway. The data introduced in the model
are the reference number added to the six parameters identified in section 4 that will characterize sample
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buildings. All of them are obtained from the land registry or cadastre, except the level of protection that is
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obtained from the City General Urban Plan. The socio-economic status includes the occupational profile
of the lot based on the adaptation of the methodology proposed in [98]. Three ranges were defined: high
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category for managing directors; medium category for employees, qualified workers, administrative staff,
traders and army personnel; and, low category for fishermen, farmers and unqualified workers. The data
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were obtained from statistical databases [99] on census units, and the corresponding percentage of the
unit was calculated and then applied to all buildings within the unit. The final status was achieved from
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A statistical overview at case study level was performed, for the categorization of the building
stock according to these parameters. The threshold of minimum representation for a category was
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established at 2%.
Although initially the study was planned to cover different building uses, the low statistical
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distribution of non-residential activities (the main functions of the buildings according to the cadaster are
cultural centres 5.3%, commerce 6.2%, residential 87.3%, emergency 1.2%) means that only the
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residential buildings of the study area were considered. Additionally, 1950 was identified as the limit on
the year-of-construction for the categories, as it represents a cut-off point between historic and new
buildings and a period when more homogenous construction patterns (e.g., common use of reinforced
concrete) may be observed. The number of dwellings was also discarded, because it is not a
differentiating parameter in the area. In total, 15 categories based on four parameters were established,
which included 1,721 lots and represented 76% of the building stock (see Table 3).
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Figure 7 shows the geographical distribution of the categories in the study area. A sample
building was selected for each category, based on the availability of data and the representativeness of its
parameters for the whole category. A data sheet that also included semantic data was prepared (see Figure
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Figure 7. Geographical distribution of the categories within the six districts under study.
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Once the sample buildings were established, the vulnerability assessment of the six districts
under study was completed through the calculation of the sensitiveness and adaptive capacity indexes
based on the pre-established ranges. The vulnerability index of sample buildings was then extrapolated to
the whole study area, assigning the same value to all the buildings belonging to the same category.
Consequently, the 1,721 categorized buildings will have an associated vulnerability index. Numerical
results are presented in Appendix B while the graphical representation is shown in Figure 9.
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Figure 9. Graphical representation of the vulnerability of the lots within the six districts under
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study.
Once the vulnerability index had been calculated, the flood risk index was obtained considering,
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on the one hand, risk resulting from flooding events following the increase of extreme precipitation and,
on the other hand, from flooding caused by the raise in sea-level and storm surges. For this purpose,
projections for the 21st century developed in 2013 with high spatial resolution (1 km x 1 km) were used.
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As previously explained, risk analysis needs to consider the exposure of the assets, which
depends on the location of each lot. The necessary data for feeding exposure indicators (proximity to the
coast/river, soil type, existence of green areas, and location in a flooding zone or area subjected to storm
surge) was obtained through maps on GIS that were crosschecked with the building layer, to estimate the
value of the indicator depending on the building location. Figure 10 shows as an example the analysis of
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the exposure to coast-line/river and to storm surge. The value for each indicator was obtained with the
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Figure 10. Buffer area of the coast-line/river (left) and exposure to storm surge (right) for the Donostia-
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The exposure index, in line with the vulnerability index, was evaluated by multiplying the value
of the indicator by its weight and by the weight of the criteria, following the decision tree defined through
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the MIVES methodology. As a result, an exposure index based on previously established ranges (Table 2)
was obtained for each building. Appendix C shows an example for the numerical values of the exposure
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obtained for the sample buildings.
The final risk index was obtained from the ratio of the vulnerability value derived from the
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sample building method and the real data on exposure. Figure 11 represents the risk index derived from
extreme precipitations at building level. It is shown that Amara and Loiola are the two districts at highest
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risk. The risk index related to storm surge and sea level rise (Figure 12) reached its highest value in the
district of Alde Zaharra/Old Quarter, in the buildings closest to both the coastline and the river estuary.
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Figure 11. Risk index due to extreme precipitation. -p
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Figure 12. Risk index due to storm surge and sea-level rise.
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6.2. Validation and discussion of the results
The use of CityGML as a data model enables the effective combination of both geometric and
semantic information from different data sources and in 2D/3D formats. In addition, the CityGML data
model was the input for the visualization tool, which facilitated both the categorization and the risk
analysis factors.
The topography and orography of the area are successfully represented through a Digital Terrain
Model (DTM) within CityGML. information used to evaluate the exposure to individual buildings that
together with the vulnerability associated with the categories represent the second risk component. The
CityGML data model also serves as the input for a user-friendly visualization tool; vulnerability, exposure
and risk can be automatically calculated and displayed, enabling the user to navigate inside the city.
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According to the study, the buildings at highest risk are located near the sea and river
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boundaries. Although there are vulnerability, exposure and hazard parameters involved in their risk
assessment, the location is a relevant exposure indicator. From the vulnerability point of view, buildings
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at highest risk were all constructed in 1960 or later, all of them with basements and with no damp
coursing. Additionally, even the adaptive capacity of these buildings is high as the economic status of
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inhabitants mainly ranges from medium to very high. Their privileged location leaves them more exposed
to future climatic challenges related to the increase of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise. Hence,
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With the aim of validating the results, an area comprised of blocks within the districts of Gross,
Loiola and Alde Zaharra/Old Quarter was analyzed in depth. In total, 100 buildings were inspected onsite
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to fill in the semantic information of the tool and compare the results obtained from onsite inspections
(real data) with the results of the methodology based on building categories.
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From among the 100 buildings that were analyzed, only 9 of them (9%) presented a vulnerability
index different from the index obtained by onsite inspections (see Appendix D). Whenever a variation
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was detected in the vulnerability index, an obvious variation in the risk index was also detected. There are
two main reasons for these differences. On the one hand, the variation in most cases had its origin in the
adaptation capacity index, as public data may not have been updated with recent interventions that impact
on the adaptation capacity. On the other hand, the categorization process loses representativeness for
buildings in highly heterogeneous areas, such as the Loiola district (6 of the 9 buildings have different
23
vulnerability values) that is composed mainly of single-family units with particular constructive
characteristics.
In the opinion of the technicians, the categorization process properly identified the most
vulnerable and at-risk buildings and areas, as was later verified in onsite works. The balance between
results accuracy and resource commitments was also satisfactory and affordable for any institutions that
needs to make decisions at city scale. This fact, together with the sample building approach, makes the
replication of the methodology in different cities feasible and ensures the consideration of their singular
Moreover, an understanding of the impacts on the buildings under study provided a more
realistic approximation to the real situation, in-depth prioritization, and better management of available
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resources. Additionally, the sample building approach makes it possible to define an appropriate strategy
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adapted to the real situation of the most vulnerable and critical assets, in which adaptation measures
should be initiated.
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Finally, the fact that the exposure index was calculated on the basis of real locations and
scenarios reflects the utility of the tool at simulating different scenarios by varying time-scales and
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impacts in real- time, shedding light on the current situation and continuously updating it, minimizing
necessary efforts.
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7. Conclusions
Climate change and associated hazards are impacting on cities, and their frequency and intense
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will increase in the coming years. Cities located in coastal areas will be exposed to extreme precipitation
and consequent flood events, sea-level rise and storms will represent challenges requiring the
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implementation of sustainable adaptive measures for cities of greater resilience. Urban planners need
effective risk assessment tools for supporting their decision-making based on a multi-stakeholder and
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multi-scale analysis that will include all the particularities of a building, including the specific parameters
The current research work presents a holistic risk assessment tool for cities to support decision-
making in case of extreme precipitation and storm surge and sea-level rise. The methodology strikes an
reasonable balance between the required input data and the accuracy of the results through the
implementation of MIVES methodology and the CityGML open urban-data modelling tool, which
24
provide a systemic, organized, and objective means of data analysis, supported by a graphical 3D
different scenarios are to be analyzed, the methodology can also provide an iterative process, and the
consideration of all the particularities of the building stock at city-scale is ensured by the sample building
strategy.
climate-change context such as vulnerability and exposure, which have been evaluated according to a
comprehensive set of indicators, criteria, and requirements, in order to generate a vulnerability and risk
index. An understanding of the risk of buildings to the hazard impacts has provided a realistic
approximation of the real situation of the city, exhaustive prioritization, and better resource management.
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By means of the building approach, an acceptable strategy adapted to the real situation of the most at-risk
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areas can be obtained. Harmony between resource commitments and the results accuracy should be
always pursued.
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The methodology has been validated within six districts of Donostia-San Sebastián that included
2,262 buildings. The categorization of the buildings, according to most relevant public data available,
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yielded 15 categories and the consequent sample buildings, which represented 76% of the building stock
of the study area. The modelling through sample buildings and MIVES methodology, yielded the
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vulnerability and risk value for the six districts. The accuracy of the results obtained through the sample
building strategy was validated by onsite inspections performed on 100 buildings from four districts. A
comparison of the results of the categorization method and the real data obtained through inspection
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showed slight differences of only 9%. The largest variation was noted in the Loiola district, where mainly
single-family houses of diverse properties were analyzed. Therefore, the methodology presented its
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highest potential in districts which have been characterized by smooth development over time, such as the
historic ones, providing affordable and feasible solutions for vulnerability and risk assessment in urban
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areas.
In conclusion, the proposed methodology has provided vulnerability and risk assessment through
simple key parameters and can deliver an initial diagnosis for decision-making. If there is an extended
public data set, then the results of an analysis of greater accuracy can be easily used to update the data
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Climate change is an urban problem and strategies are designed at city scale. However, adaptive
measures can be implemented at city or building scale. The current multi-scalar approach covers both the
strategic and operational scale, thereby supporting the integration of adaptive measures within disaster
Declaration of interests
☐ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal
relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
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The authors would like to acknowledge the Municipality of Donostia-San Sebastián that
facilitated the completion of this study and funding from the Basque Government (ADVICE project), the
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European Commission (SHELTER project, GA821282) and the University of the Basque Country
UPV/EHU (PPGA19/61 and PPGA20_26) as well as the support of the research group IT1314-19 from
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the Basque Government and GIU19/029 of the University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU.
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Table 3: Selected categories for the case study of Donostia-San Sebastián. Number of lots and
EXISTENCE
LEVEL OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSTRUCTION
OF CATEGORY
PROTECTION STATUS YEAR
BASEMENT
<1950 56
CATEGORY 1
2.5%
Low 188
8.3%
132
of
>1950 CATEGORY 2
5.8%
ro
<1950 123
CATEGORY 3
5.4%
With Medium 246
basement 10.9%
752
33.2%
-p >1950 CATEGORY 4 123
5.4%
re
66
<1950 CATEGORY 5 2.9%
High 205
9.1%
lP
139
None >1950 CATEGORY 6
6.1%
1057
46.7%
113 93
na
<1950 CATEGORY 8 68
ur
305 5.2%
13.5%
81 67
Medium <1950 CATEGORY 10
3.6% 3.0%
37
With High 312 <1950 302
CATEGORY 12
Grade IV basement 13.8% 13.4%
726
32.1% 671 235 <1950 215
Very high CATEGORY 13
29.7% 10.4% 9.5%
55 50
Grade III With High >1950 CATEGORY 14
2.4% 2.2%
basement
151
6.7% 136 54 49
6.0% Very high >1950 CATEGORY 15
2.4% 2.2%
1721
of
TOTAL
76.1%
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo
38
APPENDIX A. Value of requirements, criteria and indicators of the vulnerability decision tree.
of
ro
-p
re
lP
na
ur
Jo
39
APPENDIX B: Vulnerability value for each sample building
of
C: Category; REF: Reference; CY: Construction Year; SC: State Of Conservation; WD: Existence Of Water Damage; GFT: Ground
Floor Typology; EB: Existence Of Basement; OGF: Openings in The Ground Floor; RF: Roof Type; FM: Façade Material; U: Use; SM:
Structural Material; SI: Sensitiveness Index; EAS: Existence of Adaptive Systems; DSC: Drainage System Condition; PI: Previous
Intervention; SES: Socio-Economic Status; CV: Cultural Value; ACI: Adaptive Capacity Index; VI Vulnerability Index
ro
APPENDIX C: Exposure index to precipitation and storm surge and sea level rise for the sample
buildings.
C
1
REF. CY PC/R ST
8396354 1933 0.00 1.00
GA
0.55
P
1.00
SS/SL
0.00
-p
EI (P)
0.79 E1
EI (SS/SL)
0.39 E0
re
2 8396357 1963 0.00 0.40 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.30 E0 0.30 E0
3 8297106 1900 0.00 0.40 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.30 E0 0.30 E0
4 8397100 1979 0.29 0.40 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.33 E0 0.33 E0
lP
GA: Green Area; SS/SL: Storm Surge/Sea Level Rise; EI(P): Exposure Index for Precipitation:
EI(SS/SL): Exposure Index for Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise
APPENDIX D. Comparison of the sensitiveness, adaptive capacity, vulnerability and risk levels to
extreme precipitation and storm surge and sea level rise given by real data obtained through onsite
inspections (INSP) and the categorization method (CAT).
RISK STORM
SENSITIVE ADAPTIVE VULNER-
RISK SURGE/SEA
CAT REF. NESS CAPACITY ABILITY
PRECIPITATION LEVEL RISE
INSP CAT INSP CAT INSP CAT INSP CAT INSP CAT
40
12 8297159 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297001 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297002 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297003 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297004 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297005 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297006 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297007 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297008 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297009 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297010 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297011 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
of
12 8297013 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297014 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297015 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
ro
12 8297017 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297018 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12
6
8297020 S3
8297021 S3
S3
S3
A1
A1
A1
A0
V3
V3
-p
V3
V5
R3
R2
R3
R3
R3
R2
R3
R3
12 8297024 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
re
12 8297032 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297034 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
lP
12 8297035 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297044 S3 S3 A0 A1 V5 V3 R3 R2 R3 R2
12 8297045 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297046 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
na
12 8297047 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297082 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
6 8297117 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
ur
14 8297166 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297168 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297169 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
Jo
14 8297171 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
5 8297172 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
12 8297173 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297174 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297175 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297176 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297177 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
41
12 8297178 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297186 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297193 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297194 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
14 8297195 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297197 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297199 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
12 8297201 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297202 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8297204 S2 S3 A1 A1 V2 V3 R1 R2 R1 R2
6 8297205 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
12 8297212 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
of
12 8297575 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297579 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297584 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
ro
12 8297585 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8297586 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12
12
8297587 S3
8297588 S3
S3
S3
A1
A1
A1
A1
V3
V3
-p
V3
V3
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
12 8297590 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R3 R3 R3 R3
re
12 8297603 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
1 8396057 S2 S3 A0 A0 V4 V5 R3 R4 R3 R4
lP
1 8396057 S3 S3 A1 A0 V3 V5 R3 R4 R3 R4
9 8396351 S2 S2 A0 A0 V4 V4 R3 R3 R3 R3
8 8396352 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R2 R2
8 8396353 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R2 R2
na
1 8396354 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R3 R3
1 8396355 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
8 8396367 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R2 R2
ur
1 8396369 S2 S3 A1 A0 V2 V5 R2 R4 R2 R4
1 8396370 S2 S3 A1 A0 V2 V5 R2 R4 R2 R4
1 8396371 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
Jo
3 8396372 S2 S2 A0 A1 V2 V2 R3 R2 R3 R2
3 8396373 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R2 R2
3 8396374 S2 S2 A0 A1 V4 V2 R3 R2 R3 R2
3 8396375 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R1 R1
3 8396376 S2 S2 A1 A1 V2 V2 R2 R2 R2 R2
1 8396419 S3 S3 A0 A0 V5 V5 R4 R4 R4 R4
12 8397200 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
42
12 8397242 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397337 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397338 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397339 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397340 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397341 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8397365 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397366 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397367 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8397369 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
14 8397377 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397380 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
of
12 8397383 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397384 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397389 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
ro
12 8397390 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397716 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12
12
8397717 S3
8397718 S3
S3
S3
A1
A1
A1
A1
V3
V3
-p
V3
V3
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
R2
12 8397719 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
re
12 8397720 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
12 8397728 S3 S3 A1 A1 V3 V3 R2 R2 R2 R2
lP
na
ur
Jo
43