SOUTH ASIA BRIEF
Can India Makea
Play in
Afghanistan?
Antony Blinken’s visit to New Delhi
underscores a new regional “Great Game.”
BY MICHAEL KUGELMAN | JULY 29, 2021, 17:46 PM
Afghan militia fighters keep a watch at an outpost against Taliban
insurgents in Charkint, Balkh province, Afghanistan, on July 15. FaRsHAD
USYAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
T T 7 elcome to Foreign Policy's SouthAfghan militia fighters keep a watch at an outpost against Taliban
insurgents in Charkint, Balkh province, Afghanistan, on July 15, FARSHAD.
USYAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
elcome to Foreign Policy's South
Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Afghanistan takes
on more importance in U.S.-India relations,
India’s monsoon season turns deadly, anda
horrific murder sparks debate about
domestic violence in Pakistan.
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The Afghanistan Factor
Shared concern about China is the core
driver of the U.S.-India partnership, but in
recent months, other priorities have
intervened. When Indian External Affairs
Minister S. Jaishankar visited Washington
in May, COVID-19 cooperation was the
main focus. Now, it’s Afghanistan.
This week, U.S. Secretary of State AntonyUS. and Indian interests align on many
levels, but they differ on Afghanistan.
Biden’s decision to fully withdraw will
ultimately strengthen the Taliban, which
have attacked Indian interests and
nationals. The fragile U.S.-sponsored intra-
Afghan dialogue also intends to produce a
political settlement that gives the Taliban a
share of the power. That outcome would
advantage Pakistan, the Taliban’s ally and
India’s rival. (Afghanistan hasn’t had a pro-
Pakistan government since U.S. forces
overthrew the Taliban regime in 2001.)
India has invested heavily in Afghanistan,
including granting $3 billion in
development assistance since 2001, and has
enjoyed close ties with all post-Taliban
governments. But India now worries
Pakistan and China, its two main rivals, will
fill the vacuum left by the United States and
deepen their influence. This week, Beijing
hosted a visiting Taliban delegation.
India has shifted its policy in recent weeks.
In June, New Delhi sought to open formal
communication channels with the Taliban
for the first time, becoming the last majorIndia has shifted its policy in recent weeks.
In June, New Delhi sought to open formal
communication channels with the Taliban
for the first time, becoming the last major
regional player to do so. It has also widened
its engagement with the Afghan political
class. India wants to gain more influence by
expanding its links beyond those in
government. This week, ThePrint reported
New Delhi is “engaging with ‘all
stakeholders’ to the Afghan situation,
which includes the Taliban.”
As C. Raja Mohan wrote in Foreign Policy
this week, India is also increasing its
participation in Afghanistan-focused
regional diplomacy, most recently through
its involvement in conferences in Central
Asia. This is welcome news for the United
States: Most of Afghanistan’s neighbors are
either U.S. rivals, such as China, Iran, and
Russia, or difficult partners, such as
Pakistan and Turkey. The Biden
administration wants its friends to play
more of a role in shaping a so far elusive
regional consensus on the way forward for
Afghanistan.
Lemore of a role in shaping a so far elusive
regional consensus on the way forward for
Afghanistan.
This isn’t to diminish the importance of
other issues discussed during Blinken’s
visit to New Delhi. With India fearing
another COVID-19 surge, U.S. pandemic
assistance remains critical; Blinken
announced an additional $25 million in aid.
China-focused cooperation is also still
essential. India and the United States each
faced recent cyberattacks blamed on China.
Both countries are keen to maintain
momentum with the Quad; Washington
may host a meeting of leaders in
September.
Finally, U.S.-India differences on
Afghanistan won’t melt away anytime soon.
Concerned Indian leaders likely asked
Blinken about the U.S. policy of close
cooperation with Pakistan on Afghanistan-
related issues. Pakistan’s national security
advisor and head of its main spy agency
arrived in Washington for a visit on
Tuesday. Ultimately, Pakistan’s large role in
the Afghan peace process and China’s~arrivedin Washington foravisiton =
Tuesday. Ultimately, Pakistan’s large role in
the Afghan peace process and China’s
growing influence may limit India’s
options.
Nevertheless, the stars are aligned for more
U.S.-India cooperation on Afghanistan. The
United States is pushing for more regional
engagement at a moment when India—one
of Afghanistan’s only neighbors with
cordial ties with Washington—is stepping
up its game.
Read all of Foreign Policy’s coverage of the
U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan here.
The Week Ahead
August 6: Second anniversary of India’s
revocation of the special autonomous
status of Indian-administered Kashmir.